Chet Gresham

Targets and Touches

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Week 7 Target Watch: NFC

Wednesday, October 17, 2012

San Francisco 49ers


Michael Crabtree: 9-7-8-7-7-6 (44), Vernon Davis: 5-7-8-2-7-5 (34), Mario Manningham: 4-4-5-5-5-10 (33), Randy Moss: 4-1-6-1-2-3 (17), Frank Gore: 1-4-2-2-0-4 (13), Delanie Walker: 2-2-2-4-0-2 (12), Kyle Williams: 0-2-3-0-2-4 (11), Kendall Hunter: 0-3-1-0-1-1 (6), Garrett Celek: dnp-dnp-dnp-dnp-1-2 (3)


The 49ers had their buttocks handed to them unceremoniously in San Francisco last Sunday and I can see some people starting to worry about Frank Gore and Vernon Davis and whoever else you managed to get stuck with from that team, but they’ll rebound. The Giants just whooped them, end of story, next game.


I keep watching for Kendall Hunter to take a step forward in this offense, but I think it will probably happen in the second half of the season. Frank Gore looks fine, but he is going to wear down and they’ll want Hunter’s fresh legs. In the game Gore ran eight times for 36 yards and Hunter four times for 26 yards. Gore also had four targets to Hunter’s one. It’s still Gore’s job.



Seattle Seahawks


Sidney Rice: 9-5-1-7-6-6 (34), Golden Tate: dnp-4-7-3-4-6 (24), Doug Baldwin: 6-1-dnp-3-4-3 (17), Zach Miller: 3-1-4-3-3-2 (16), Anthony McCoy: 1-5-2-3-2-1 (14), Braylon Edwards: 9-0-0-0-1-3 (13), Marshawn Lynch: 2-0-1-4-2-1 (10), Robert Turbin: 1-2-0-2-2-2 (9), Ben Obomanu: 1-0-3-0-0-1 (5), Evan Moore: 0-1-2-0-0-0 (3), Leon Washington: 0-1-0-0-0-2 (3), Charly Martin: 2-dnp-1-dnp-dnp-dnp (3), Michael Robinson: 0-0-0-0-1-0 (1)


The passing game lives!! Can you believe the Seahawks actually went to the air?  Well, Russell Wilson only completed 16 passes, but he made them count by throwing three of them for touchdowns. The problem for us fake footballers is the fact that he spread the ball around so nicely. Eight players caught a pass and not one of them had more than six targets or three receptions.  Sidney Rice had the best day, but if you started him you sure had to white-knuckle that game out until the bitter end.


Wilson is the only quarterback not named Brady Quinn to not have completed 20 passes in a game this season. This game could lengthen his passing leash, but I’d like to see the ball get thrown around a bit more before recommending bargain shopping in the Seahawks passing basement.



St. Louis Rams


Danny Amendola: 9-16-9-9-5-dnp (48), Brandon Gibson: 5-4-6-4-4-9 (32), Chris Givens: 1-2-4-3-5-7 (22), Lance Kendricks: 2-2-7-2-2-4 (19), Steve Smith: 3-5-3-dnp-dnp-2 (13), Steven Jackson: 4-0-2-2-0-5 (13), Daryl Richardson: 0-3-1-3-2-3 (12), Brian Quick: dnp-1-dnp-3-1-2 (7), Austin Pettis: dnp-dnp-0-2-2-3 (7), Matthew Mulligan: 0-2-1-0-0-2 (5), Isaiah Pead: 0-0-1-dnp-0-1 (2), Brit Miller: 0-0-0-1-0-0 (1), Mike McNeill: 1-0-0-0-0-0 (1)


The post-Amendola world is here and it’s not all that horrible. With the target hog on the sidelines, Brandon Gibson and Chris Givens saw a nice bump in targets and both had decent yardage games, with 91 and 85 yards respectively. Gibson feels like the safer pick, but Givens the higher upside choice. Either way you go, you’ll probably choose incorrectly and be cussing me and/or your poor dog. So be careful. These guys will be very matchup dependent going forward, but the targets are nice to see.


The snap count distribution has stayed fairly consistent between Steven Jackson and Daryl Richardson at around 65% to 35% in favor of Jackson. But last week they had nearly equal touches, with Richardson at 13 to Jackson’s 15. I think Jackson continues to get the starts and the bulk of the snaps, but Richardson will see the ball when he’s on the field.



Tampa Bay Buccaneers


Vincent Jackson: 10-10-7-11-BYE-8 (46), Mike Williams: 3-5-6-8-BYE-6 (28), Doug Martin: 4-3-3-5-BYE-4 (19), Dallas Clark: 1-5-4-4-BYE-1 (15), Tiquan Underwood: dnp-dnp-1-3-BYE-3 (7), Danny Ware: 0-1-2-2-BYE-2 (7), Arrelious Benn: dnp-0-1-4-BYE-0 (5), Luke Stocker: 0-0-3-2-BYE-0 (5), Sammie Stroughter: 0-2-0-dnp-BYE-dnp (2), Preston Parker: 1-1-dnp-dnp-BYE-dnp (2), LeGarrette Blount: 1-0-0-0-BYE-0 (1)


For some reason I’ve adopted the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as my fantasy football farm system.  I love Doug Martin, he moves like Ray Rice in traffic and in the open field. Last week he caught a short route; made a defender he was squared up with miss and then outran another defender for a 44-yard gain. His yards per carry has been low this season, but he’s had a few nice runs called back and has had some hard luck blocking. I know I’m making CJ?Kesque excuses here, but I’ve seen what I’ve seen! Over the last two games he’s 23 for 109 yards for 5.2 yards per carry and has four receptions for 64 yards. The fresh-legged LeGarrette Blount is coming in to steal his touchdowns, but Martin is starting to heat up and has a decent schedule ahead.


And Josh Freeman is also looking good, which is very much helping his receivers over the last couple games.  He has averaged 314.5 yards passing and two touchdowns over the last two games and all four of those touchdowns have gone to Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams, along with 394 yards receiving. This team can put up fantasy numbers with the right matchups. And that’s what you have to watch out for, even more than other teams, are the matchups.



Washington Redskins


Fred Davis: 4-5-7-4-6-4 (30), Leonard Hankerson: 0-3-7-11-1-3 (25), Santana Moss: 5-3-3-4-5-4 (24), Josh Morgan: 2-5-3-5-1-4 (20), Aldrick Robinson: 6-3-3-dnp-1-0 (13), Evan Royster: 0-3-4-3-1-1 (12), Pierre Garcon: 4-dnp-dnp-1-7-dnp (12), Roy Helu: 3-1-3-dnp-dnp-dnp (7), Alfred Morris: 0-0-1-2-1-2 (6), Niles Paul: 0-3-0-2-0-0 (5), Brandon Banks: 1-0-1-0-0-2 (4), Darrel Young: 0-0-0-2-0-1 (3), Logan Paulsen: 1-0-1-0-1-0 (3)


Oh the target numbers from a running quarterback. Paltry is the word I would use. If only RGIII could throw the ball to himself more often! Pierre Garcon teased us mightily with his first game, first quarter explosion, but that looks to be fool’s gold at the moment. Fred Davis has given us some hope with receptions and yardage, but has yet to find the end zone. He still is your best bet, with 23 receptions and 312 yards compared to Santana Moss, Josh Morgan and Leonard Hankerson all playing a weird game of trying to tie each other’s numbers. Each one has 16 receptions for 207 to 223 yards. Moss leads the team in receiving touchdowns with two, but is averaging a miniscule four targets a game.


RGIII has only thrown five touchdowns to his six rushing touchdowns; so don’t rely on the passing game right now. He leads the league in completion percentage and will round into more of a consistent passing threat, but with so few attempts coupled with the targets being spread around evenly, be wary.



Snap count data comes from our friends at Pro Football Focus, red zone data from our other friends at The Football Guys and target percentages from The Fake Football.

Chet Gresham writes Target Watch and The Morning After for and is the founder of The Fake Football. Chet can be found on Twitter .
Email :Chet Gresham

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