Chet Gresham

Targets and Touches

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Week 7 Target Watch: AFC

Thursday, October 18, 2012

Welcome to the AFC Target Watch for Week 7. You will find target information that will bewilder and baffle the mind. Bang it here for Wednesday's NFC targets.

I also have a little treat just below here (no peeking!). You’ll find the top ten target percentage accumulators from each position over the last three weeks. I like to know that my player is the favoritest player on the team!

Target Percentage Leaders

Wide Receiver % of Targets   Tight End % of Targets   Running Back % of Targets
Brandon Marshall 39.68%   Jason Witten 23.86%   Ray Rice 18.18%
Steve Smith 35.19%   Tony Gonzalez 20.47%   LeSean McCoy 17.17%
Wes Welker 32.52%   Kyle Rudolph 20.35%   Willis McGahee 15.32%
Victor Cruz 32.08%   Rob Gronkowski 19.51%   Ryan Mathews 14.42%
Steve Johnson 31.96%   Antonio Gates 19.23%   Darren Sproles 14.14%
Larry Fitzgerald 31.82%   Heath Miller 18.67%   Trent Richardson 13.91%
Dez Bryant 31.82%   Greg Olsen 18.52%   Doug Martin 13.85%
Marques Colston 31.31%   Brent Celek 18.18%   Marcel Reece 13.43%
Reggie Wayne 30.93%   Fred Davis 17.72%   Adrian Peterson 13.27%
Dwayne Bowe 30.85%   Scott Chandler 17.53%   Maurice Jones-Drew 12.50%

Baltimore Ravens


Anquan Boldin: 5-4-7-12-10-6 (44), Dennis Pitta: 9-15-7-2-4-5 (42), Ray Rice: 4-10-5-11-3-4 (37), Torrey Smith: 3-5-10-10-4-4 (36), Jacoby Jones: 3-2-4-7-2-3 (21), Vonta Leach: 3-1-3-2-2-1 (12), Ed Dickson: 3-4-2-0-1-2 (12), Tandon Doss: 0-1-0-2-1-0 (4), Deonte Thompson: 2-0-0-0-0-dnp (2), Bernard Pierce: 0-0-1-0-0-1 (2)


The Ravens defensive stars are dropping like it’s the opening scene of Saving Private Ryan, but all that bad news for the defense is good news to all us fantasy football jackholes. The more points the Ravens give up, the more the offense will need to score to compete.


The Ravens offense hasn’t been at full tilt recently, but after they face Houston and have their bye, there schedule gets a little easier. And I’m hoping we see Torrey Smith start to get more targets. He is still sitting fourth on the team in targets, which is just criminally insane in the membrane.


Dennis Pitta has been getting Boldin’d over the last three games. Both players work the interior of the field and make the tough, face-jarring catches, so I’m hoping the need to score more will get both more looks, as well as Smith, which is probably asking too much.


Ray Rice has 97 rushing attempts and 37 targets through the first six games. Last season through six games he also had 97 rushing attempts, but 40 targets. This year he has 715 total yards and five touchdowns, last year he had 763 total yards and four touchdowns. This is all to say that Rice is being used as often and as well as last season.



Buffalo Bills


Steve Johnson: 10-5-11-10-10-11 (57), Scott Chandler: 6-5-4-8-6-3 (32), Donald Jones: 7-3-6-3-4-4 (27), T.J. Graham: dnp-1-5-8-3-3 (20), C.J. Spiller: 3-3-2-2-1-5 (16), Fred Jackson: 0-dnp-dnp-3-1-6 (10), Tashard Choice: 0-1-5-1-dnp-0 (7), David Nelson: 5-dnp-dnp-dnp-dnp-dnp (5), Brad Smith: dnp-1-0-2-1-0 (4), Dorin Dickerson: 0-0-dnp-2-dnp-dnp (2), Corey McIntyre: 0-0-2-0-0-0 (2), Lee Smith: 1-0-0-0-0-0 (1)


Ryan Fitzpatrick is averaging 139.5 yards passing and zero touchdowns over the last two weeks, so there weren’t many productive targets being sent out into football land. That also had something to do with two road games against San Francisco and Arizona. But they should get the road frequently traveled against the Titans this week and that means targets should turn into fantasy points with much more ease.


Stevie Johnson and Scott Chandler still lead the team in targets, but Stevie is the guy who continues to get force fed the ball. When a player is close to double-digit targets AND he gets to face a defense giving up the worst completion percentage in the league at 71.9% and the fifth most receiving touchdowns, you have a nice matchup.


The running back by committee approach worked out okay for fantasy owners of both C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson last week, but that’s because both got into the end zone, but it’s going to be tough foreseeing who that will be each week. Over the last three games Spiller has seen 46% of the snaps to Jackson’s 52%. During that stretch both have a just one carry inside the five-yard line and Jackson scored on his, but Spiller has seen three rushing attempts to Jackson’s one inside the red zone, and Spiller scored as well. Spiller’s ability is good enough that his red zone looks have a similar chance of scoring as Jackson’s goal line looks.



Cincinnati Bengals


A.J. Green: 11-12-11-9-13-12 (68), Jermaine Gresham: 8-5-7-5-6-8 (39), Andrew Hawkins: 9-3-4-3-13-5 (37), Armon Binns: 5-5-3-5-6-5 (29), BenJarvus Green-Ellis: 2-3-1-3-2-1 (12), Cedric Peerman: 0-0-0-0-0-8 (8), Brandon Tate: 2-3-0-0-1-1 (7), Brian Leonard: 0-0-1-1-2-1 (5), Orson Charles: 0-0-1-1-0-2 (4), Marvin Jones: 0-0-dnp-2-dnp-2 (4), Chris Pressley: 0-0-0-2-0-0 (2)


Right now A.J. Green is the best fantasy wide receiver in the game. That could change, but it’s a fact through six weeks. Andy Dalton has thrown the ball at Green 68 times, which is third in the league to Reggie Wayne and Victor Cruz.  His 11.3 targets per game is what Roddy White led the league with last season. This is all to say that Green is the man in Cincinnati and in fantasy.


Andrew Hawkins looks like the best non-Green wide receiver and if he can get targets he’ll be fantasy worthy. Last week Armon Binns saw an equal number of targets, but this was the first week Hawkins saw more snaps, 54 to 42. Add that to a fumble by Binns and we may start getting more Hawkins in the future.


Jermaine Gresham’s targets are right on the edge of acceptable for fantasy reliability. Last week he caught and ran for a long touchdown, but still only had three receptions for 68 yards and those 68 yards was his high on the season. Without a touchdown, he doesn’t have much fantasy value and he hasn’t had a red zone target since week three.


With Brian Leonard getting hurt, the third down back job went to Cedric Peerman and he ran with it. While Leonard was healthy, he totaled five targets, Peerman in one game had eight and he caught all eight for 76 yards. BenJarvus Green Ellis wasn’t getting many targets as it was, but he for sure isn’t now. The Law Firm hasn’t hit double-digit fantasy points since week two. There really is no upside there.



Cleveland Browns


Greg Little: 4-7-4-10-2-5 (32), Trent Richardson: 3-5-7-6-7-3 (31), Josh Gordon: 4-3-6-1-8-4 (26), Ben Watson: 2-1-8-6-3-5 (25), Jordan Cameron: 1-0-7-6-2-4 (20), Jordan Norwood: dnp-dnp-dnp-10-9-dnp (19), Chris Ogbonnaya: dnp-6-3-4-4-2 (19), Mohamed Massaquoi: 8-7-3-dnp-dnp-dnp (18), Travis Benjamin: 6-0-4-5-dnp-dnp (15), Josh Cribbs: 0-2-1-2-0-1 (6), Alex Smith: 1-4-dnp-dnp-dnp-0 (5), Owen Marecic: 2-1-0-0-0-2 (5), Brandon Jackson: 4-dnp-dnp-dnp-dnp-dnp (4), Josh Cooper: dnp-dnp-dnp-dnp-dnp-3 (3), Montario Hardesty: 0-0-dnp-dnp-dnp-1 (1)


Trent Richardson was on his way to target glory before he hurt his ribs and I think that tells you just about all you need to know about who the Browns number one receiver is. No? Well, it’s nobody. Josh Gordon is looking good, but how often are defenses going to let him get behind them now? I like him, but his two big games have come from 12 targets and five receptions. He’ll be hit and miss all season, but thankfully he gets the Colts this week, which makes it much easier to hit.


Montario Hardesty filled in well for Trent Richardson, almost too well, but Richardson practiced on Wednesday and I doubt Hardesty does more than spell him a few downs.



Denver Broncos


Eric Decker: 7-8-11-9-8-9 (52), Demaryius Thomas: 7-11-11-6-11-2 (48), Jacob Tamme: 5-4-10-6-11-2 (38), Brandon Stokley: 3-6-6-2-3-4 (24), Joel Dreessen: 2-2-5-3-4-7 (23), Willis McGahee: 1-2-2-6-6-5 (22), Lance Ball: 0-2-3-2-0-0 (7), Matthew Willis: 1-1-1-dnp-0-1 (4), Ronnie Hillman: dnp-dnp-1-2-1-0 (4), Knowshon Moreno: 0-1-dnp-dnp-dnp-dnp (1), Chris Gronkowski: 0-0-1-0-0-0 (1), Andre Caldwell: dnp-dnp-dnp-1-0-0 (1)


There has been a change on the Broncos target leader board! Alert the media! While the Broncos were coming back from a 24-0 halftime deficit, Demaryius Thomas only had two targets to Eric Decker’s nine. Thankfully for Thomas owners, he caught both for 37 yards and a touchdown. If he can withstand poor target games like that, he’s a keeper.


Joel Dreessen saw a nice uptick in targets this week with seven, while Jacob Tamme only had two. Tamme ran a couple more passing routes than Dreessen, but couldn’t get the targets. Unlike the competition for targets between Decker and Thomas, this competition only has losers. Tamme and Dreessen will cap each other’s upside.



Houston Texans


Andre Johnson: 10-4-4-6-6-12 (42), Owen Daniels: 8-9-5-6-5-5 (38), Kevin Walter: 2-4-6-3-6-4 (25), James Casey: 2-4-3-5-5-2 (21), Arian Foster: 3-7-1-2-4-3 (20), Keshawn Martin: 1-2-4-3-0-6 (16), Garrett Graham: 0-1-4-1-0-5 (11), Ben Tate: 3-4-0-2-dnp-0 (9), Lestar Jean: 2-0-1-dnp-dnp-0 (3), DeVier Posey: dnp-dnp-dnp-0-0-1 (1), Justin Forsett: 0-0-0-0-0-1 (1)


Matt Schaub had a poor game along with most of the Texans on Sunday night. We knew Andre Johnson would see more targets than usual in a game where they would need to come from behind, so seeing that come true was nice, but he couldn’t get into the end zone unfortunately.


Owen Daniels has been flirting with disaster when it comes to targets and production. Lately he’s been taking five to six target days and turning them into touchdowns and yardage above his target station. That didn’t continue last week. Daniels is averaging 5.2 targets over the last four games, which ranks him 18th out of tight ends.


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Chet Gresham writes Target Watch and The Morning After for and is the founder of The Fake Football. Chet can be found on Twitter .
Email :Chet Gresham

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