1:00PM ET Games
Arizona @ Minnesota
Adrian Peterson's five-game touchdown drought is about as fluky as it gets. It won't last. Running with ferocious power and all the characteristics of a game-breaking back, Peterson has amassed 309 yards on his last 60 carries (5.15 YPC) while seeing his passing-game role rise. Peterson quietly ranks second among NFL tailbacks in receptions over the past three weeks and played 72-of-86 snaps (83.7 percent) in last week's loss to Washington, bypassing Toby Gerhart for the third-down back job. Peterson dove in a fourth-quarter red-zone carry against the Redskins only to have it whistled back by Kyle Rudolph's false start. It's been written in this space before and is about to be written again: Make a trade offer to the A.P. owner in your league before Sunday's kickoff. If we're looking ahead -- and, as fantasy leaguers, we need to be at all times -- there isn't a better running back bet the rest of the way. ... Percy Harvin leads the league in receptions through six weeks, and he's averaging over 100 yards per game. Arizona's defense is most vulnerable in the slot, which is where Harvin plays the majority of his passing-down snaps. The sleeper NFL Most Valuable Player candidate will run around, by, and over slot CB William Gay.
The Cardinals rank No. 9 in pass defense, but it's fair to question the applicability of that stat for predictive analysis, particularly with center-field safety Kerry Rhodes (back) out indefinitely. Arizona's six-game quarterback slate has included Sam Bradford, rookies Ryan Tannehill and Russell Wilson, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and a slow-starting Michael Vick. Christian Ponder has turned up his production the past two weeks with Minnesota having to lean more on the pass, and I think he can remain a strong two-QB league play against the Cards. Ponder still hasn't reached legit QB1 value yet. ... Jerome Simpson will start Sunday after missing last week's game on a coaches' decision. Simpson is battling back and leg ailments and will likely play most of his Week 7 snaps in Patrick Peterson's coverage. Look elsewhere. ... Rudolph led all NFL tight ends in Week 6 targets, securing 6-of-11 for 56 yards and a touchdown. He could have had a bigger day if not for two drops. Rudolph has good hands, so it's reasonable to chalk up the miscues as a one-game fluke. Rudolph is the No. 5 overall fantasy tight end and a locked-in every-week starter.
The quarterback transition from Kevin Kolb (shoulder, ribs, sternum) to John Skelton is unlikely to make a large impact on Arizona's weekly offensive box scores. There are 2011 stats that suggest Skelton did a better job of getting the football to Larry Fitzgerald last season, but Kolb wasn't doing so poorly in '12. (Fitz ranks third in the NFL in targets and has 90-plus yards and/or a touchdown in four straight weeks.) The one big plus Skelton brings is superior firmness in the pocket, which is generally needed behind the Cardinals' turnstile offensive line. Skelton won't save this offense, but there should be little or no drop-off from Kolb. ... Fitz returns to his home state of Minnesota, where he's averaged seven catches for 108 yards in five career meetings with the Vikings. ... Andre Roberts has had one worthwhile fantasy game in the past five weeks. As the No. 2 option in a passing game that won't stop struggling, Roberts is headed for more ups and downs. I don't think Roberts has an especially attractive Week 7 matchup against Vikings LCBs Antoine Winfield and Josh Robinson. Roberts does remain comfortably ahead of Early Doucet and Michael Floyd.
The Cardinals opened Week 6 with La'Rod Stephens-Howling as their primary back, but it didn't last long. "Hyphen" managed seven yards on his first six carries with runs of 2, -1, 3, 1, 0, and 2 before Arizona turned to William Powell in the second quarter. Powell is hardly a game breaker, but he's at least a functional runner between the tackles and I'd expect him to match or perhaps improve upon last week's 14 touches this Sunday. Unfortunately, he goes from facing Buffalo's No. 32 run defense to Minnesota's top-11 unit and is sure to have fewer running lanes. Powell is a low-upside flex option in Week 7. ... Third-stringer Alfonso Smith was briefly on the fantasy radar in 2011, but he's well behind Stephens-Howling and Powell this year. Smith played two offensive snaps against the Bills and didn't receive a touch. ... Todd Heap is always hurt, Rob Housler is a situational player, and Jeff King is a blocker. Avoid Cardinals tight ends in fantasy.
Score Prediction: Vikings 21, Cardinals 17
Dallas @ Carolina
The Cowboys' offense emerged from its Week 5 bye humming in last Sunday's narrow loss to the Ravens. They got to the edges in the running game and exploited Baltimore's outside corners with Dez Bryant's physicality. (You probably heard more about Dez's two-point conversion drop, but he secured 13-of-15 targets in the game.) While Dallas came up short, it was a promising effort for a unit long on talent if short on consistency. And it should theoretically carry over into this week's tilt versus Carolina's No. 23 defense. ... Tony Romo has played well in just 2-of-5 games this season, but he may have found a groove after the open date. Though Romo didn't hit any big downfield plays at Baltimore, he was sharp in the short to intermediate sections of the field. Carolina is vulnerable to vertical bombs due to poor safety play and inconsistent pass rush. Dallas figures to pass more in the wake of DeMarco Murray's (foot) loss, and Romo stands to benefit. ... Panthers LCB Chris Gamble suffered a setback Thursday morning with a lingering shoulder injury and was ruled out against the Cowboys. Bryant may match up with rookie RCB Josh Norman more in this game, anyway, because Norman covers Dez's usual side of the field. With 21 grabs for 200 yards and two scores in his last two games, Bryant is locked back in as a WR1.
Friday Update: Bryant was a late-week addition to the injury report after missing Friday's practice with a groin injury. While Bryant did make the trip to Carolina, he'll likely be a full-blown game-time decision. Bryant is too good and the matchup too favorable to sit him in fantasy leagues if he's active, but we probably won't get an effective read on his status until Sunday morning. If Bryant missed the game, the Cowboys would turn to Ogletree as the starter opposite Austin. Dwayne Harris would figure to be the No. 3 receiver, with some Cole Beasley mixed in.
Saturday Update: ESPN's Adam Schefter and Ed Werder are now both reporting the Cowboys expect Bryant to start Sunday's game. The fact that the team is so confident about Dez's availability suggests they view the groin soreness as a minor issue. Start Bryant confidently.
Attacking Baltimore with perimeter runs may have been just as much a concession that Dallas no longer trusts its interior offensive line as it was a matter of identifying the Ravens as a defense exposable by stretch-zone plays. Outside runs are Felix Jones' bread and butter, and he looked like a different, more explosive back in a running offense emphasizing his strengths. Jones totaled 105 yards and a touchdown on 19 touches and averaged 5.11 yards per carry. Slated for Week 7 feature back duties with Murray shelved, Jones is an upside RB2 play against the Panthers' bottom-ten run defense. ... Phillip Tanner will be second in line for carries at Carolina. Tanner is a power runner who gets what's blocked and can break tackles. You could do worse for a Week 7 desperation flex option. ... Commandingly retaking Dallas' No. 3 pass option role from Week 1 FOY (Fluke of the Year) Kevin Ogletree, Jason Witten has strung together consecutive productive efforts to get himself squarely back on the TE1 radar. Romo's target distribution over his last three games: Bryant 36, Witten 27, Miles Austin 20, Ogletree 16. ... Austin is coming off his slowest week of the season, ostensibly because the Cowboys looked to feature Bryant in his matchups with Cary Williams and Jimmy Smith. Austin drew Ravens top CB Lardarius Webb until Webb tore his ACL, but Romo kept going to Bryant. Austin may be more WR2/3 than the legit WR1 he produced as in the Cowboys' initial four games, but he's certainly a nice fantasy bet against the Panthers. And even more so if Bryant sits out the game.
Losing perennial Pro Bowl C Ryan Kalil (Lisfranc) for the season has created a domino effect on Carolina's offensive line, with new starters at three different positions. The full impact of Kalil's loss remains to be seen, but it can't be good news for timeshare backs Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams. Pro Football Focus rated Kalil as a top-ten run-blocking center in each of the past three years. ... Stewart has played in three games this season and hasn't topped 12 touches in any of them. When Stewart has been healthy, Williams' season high is 14 touches. I can tell you with certainty that Stewart is the better back, but they're both week-to-week dice-roll flex options due to the way they are utilized. Dallas is playing top-13 run defense, so both Carolina runners may struggle in Week 7. Stewart is the superior bet if picking between the two. ... The Panthers' target distribution on the season: Steve Smith 38, Greg Olsen 34, Brandon LaFell 24, Mike Tolbert 14, Louis Murphy 11, Williams 7, and Stewart 6. ... Cowboys defensive coordinator Rob Ryan is a schemer. Particularly in the passing game, Ryan has shown an ability to effectively eliminate the opposition's top weapon with one of the league's most gifted secondaries. Ryan's defense held Hakeem Nicks to a 4-38 line in Week 1, Sidney Rice to 3-33 in Week 2, Vincent Jackson to 1-29 in Week 3, and Torrey Smith to under 25 yards last week. While it's difficult to imagine benching Smith unless you're unbelievably loaded at wide receiver, I think he may struggle in this game.
If Ryan does take Smith away, it could translate to impressive box-score production from Olsen. Having clearly bypassed LaFell as Cam Newton's No. 2 pass option, Olsen is a solid bet to lead Carolina in Week 7 receiving. ... LaFell ranks a lowly 63rd in per-game fantasy receiver scoring and isn't going to break out this season. ... I was interviewed by The Score website this week and gave my thoughts on Newton. Here's a link. There are discouraging signs on Cam. I do believe it's well within the capability of Newton and playcaller Rob Chudzinski to right the ship, and trust Chud to have fixed some things during the Week 6 bye. I also think there is reason to believe the Panthers will have trouble throwing the ball against the Cowboys' top-ranked pass defense. And they'll have trouble moving the ball at all if they don't show greater commitment to a base run game. The Panthers play Dallas this week and the Bears in Week 8. My tentative expectation is Newton will experience two more slow weeks and catch fire down the stretch. Attempting to be a forward-looking fantasy owner, I will be targeting Newton for buy-low opportunities leading into Week 9.
Score Prediction: Cowboys 27, Panthers 20
New Orleans @ Tampa Bay
The Week 6 box score suggests Josh Freeman lit up the Chiefs, but his on-field performance was quite a bit less impressive. Accuracy remains a big issue for Freeman, and he continues to look skittish and uncomfortable in rookie OC Mike Sullivan's offense, leading to ball-placement issues. The good news is Freeman can power the ball downfield, and is armed with two field stretchers in Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams. Freeman might have another productive game in Week 7 because New Orleans' defense is similarly awful to Kansas City's, but based on last week's play, the Tampa quarterback has yet not turned his season around. ... Much has been made of the Saints' run-defense struggles, but they're equally poor against the pass, due largely to an inability to put pressure on passers. Only the Chiefs allow a higher yards-per-pass-attempt average, and enemy quarterbacks complete over 67 percent of their throws against the Saints. It's the ultimate recipe for big passing stats. V-Jax is a legit WR1 in Week 7, and Williams is squarely on the WR2 radar due to improved recent play. Jackson is currently the No. 9 overall fantasy receiver in points per game. Williams is No. 22, but he's coming off back-to-back 110-plus-yard games.
Last week's box score is humorously deceptive as it relates to Tampa Bay's backfield. Doug Martin was the clear-cut feature runner when the game was at all in doubt. He ran with more confidence against the Chiefs inside the tackles, and got into space twice for big-play receptions. Martin is a much, much better running back than LeGarrette Blount, and he has locked himself back in as an RB2 coming off the 131-total yard effort. Start Martin confidently against New Orleans' No. 31 run defense. ... Blount got five of his seven carries and 53 of his 58 yards with five minutes left in the game and the Bucs up 31-10. He could generously be characterized as a clock-killer. Realistically, he was playing in complete garbage time. Blount may look good as an on-paper flex if you take last week's stats and apply them to this matchup, but that's also a great way to get yourself in trouble. Blount's role has not noticeably increased, and he isn't going to be on the football field if the Bucs fall behind the Saints. Don't walk into this trap door.
I dropped Mark Ingram in one of my leagues two weeks ago. He just has so many factors working against him, as seven carry-a-game back who only plays on obvious run downs. I suppose Ingram could do well Sunday if the Saints grab a big lead and enter clock-killing mode, but I personally have thrown in the towel. I think it's a usage and scheme issue; not an indictment of Ingram's individual talent. ... NFL teams rarely make the high-impact "tweaks" we hope for during byes, but it certainly would've made sense for the Saints to discuss getting Darren Sproles the rock more during their Week 6 open date. Sproles exceeded ten touches just once in the first five weeks and is well off his 2011 yardage and workload pace. The Bucs play tough run defense, ranking fourth in the NFL in that category. New Orleans can avoid the stout front by getting their "satellite" back out in space. I like Sproles as a Week 7 flex play and believe he'll fare better in the final 11 games than he did in the initial five. ... Screen-pass sensation Pierre Thomas is averaging ten touches for 64 total yards per game and has yet to discover pay dirt on the season. He's not a terrible low-end flex play, but has a difficult Week 7 matchup and is generally a better real-life than fantasy player.
Tampa Bay's one-dimensional defense shuts down run games but is exposable through the air. Top CB Aqib Talib is now on game two of his four-week suspension and will be replaced by E.J. Biggers against the Saints. The Bucs' 31st-ranked pass defense should prove no match for Drew Brees. Even with an early-season bye, Brees is a top-five fantasy quarterback on the year. ... Remember Marques Colston's "slow start"? Me neither. Colston has a ridiculous 18 catches for 284 yards and four touchdowns in his last two games and will be a WR1 the rest of the way. The Week 6 bye could only help Colston's plantar fasciitis recovery. ... Colston is a slot receiver, and Lance Moore plays outside. It may seem odd, but Moore actually stands to benefit more from Talib's absence than New Orleans' No. 1 receiver. If Jimmy Graham (ankle) is limited or doesn't play Sunday, it's reasonable to think that Moore would also be the beneficiary in that respect. Moore is a strong bye-week WR3 with upside. ... Avoid Devery Henderson, please. He's gone 1-for-4 on halfway decent fantasy performances and has always been a tease as a clear-out route runner in Sean Payton and Pete Carmichael's offenses. Henderson is never a featured receiver in the scheme. It would not be surprising if Greg Camarillo outproduced him against the Bucs. ... There has been some buzz of Graham being used as a decoy in Week 7. I own Graham in a couple of leagues and am starting him if he's active for the game, regardless of speculation.
Saturday Update: Camarillo was released on Saturday to make room for LB Jonathan Vilma's activation from PUP. More importantly, Graham has been ruled out against the Buccaneers. David Thomas will replace him in the lineup, although the Saints won't be dialing up any pass plays intended for Thomas and he's not sure to be an every-down player. Look elsewhere for a Week 7 fallback option at tight end.
Score Prediction: Saints 30, Bucs 21
1:00PM ET Games
Arizona @ Minnesota
Adrian Peterson's five-game touchdown drought is about as fluky as it gets. It won't last. Running with ferocious power and all the characteristics of a game-breaking back, Peterson has amassed 309 yards on his last 60 carries (5.15 YPC) while seeing his passing-game role rise. Peterson quietly ranks second among NFL tailbacks in receptions over the past three weeks and played 72-of-86 snaps (83.7 percent) in last week's loss to Washington, bypassing Toby Gerhart for the third-down back job. Peterson dove in a fourth-quarter red-zone carry against the Redskins only to have it whistled back by Kyle Rudolph's false start. It's been written in this space before and is about to be written again: Make a trade offer to the A.P. owner in your league before Sunday's kickoff. If we're looking ahead -- and, as fantasy leaguers, we need to be at all times -- there isn't a better running back bet the rest of the way. ... Percy Harvin leads the league in receptions through six weeks, and he's averaging over 100 yards per game. Arizona's defense is most vulnerable in the slot, which is where Harvin plays the majority of his passing-down snaps. The sleeper NFL Most Valuable Player candidate will run around, by, and over slot CB William Gay.
The Cardinals rank No. 9 in pass defense, but it's fair to question the applicability of that stat for predictive analysis, particularly with center-field safety Kerry Rhodes (back) out indefinitely. Arizona's six-game quarterback slate has included Sam Bradford, rookies Ryan Tannehill and Russell Wilson, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and a slow-starting Michael Vick. Christian Ponder has turned up his production the past two weeks with Minnesota having to lean more on the pass, and I think he can remain a strong two-QB league play against the Cards. Ponder still hasn't reached legit QB1 value yet. ... Jerome Simpson will start Sunday after missing last week's game on a coaches' decision. Simpson is battling back and leg ailments and will likely play most of his Week 7 snaps in Patrick Peterson's coverage. Look elsewhere. ... Rudolph led all NFL tight ends in Week 6 targets, securing 6-of-11 for 56 yards and a touchdown. He could have had a bigger day if not for two drops. Rudolph has good hands, so it's reasonable to chalk up the miscues as a one-game fluke. Rudolph is the No. 5 overall fantasy tight end and a locked-in every-week starter.
The quarterback transition from Kevin Kolb (shoulder, ribs, sternum) to John Skelton is unlikely to make a large impact on Arizona's weekly offensive box scores. There are 2011 stats that suggest Skelton did a better job of getting the football to Larry Fitzgerald last season, but Kolb wasn't doing so poorly in '12. (Fitz ranks third in the NFL in targets and has 90-plus yards and/or a touchdown in four straight weeks.) The one big plus Skelton brings is superior firmness in the pocket, which is generally needed behind the Cardinals' turnstile offensive line. Skelton won't save this offense, but there should be little or no drop-off from Kolb. ... Fitz returns to his home state of Minnesota, where he's averaged seven catches for 108 yards in five career meetings with the Vikings. ... Andre Roberts has had one worthwhile fantasy game in the past five weeks. As the No. 2 option in a passing game that won't stop struggling, Roberts is headed for more ups and downs. I don't think Roberts has an especially attractive Week 7 matchup against Vikings LCBs Antoine Winfield and Josh Robinson. Roberts does remain comfortably ahead of Early Doucet and Michael Floyd.
The Cardinals opened Week 6 with La'Rod Stephens-Howling as their primary back, but it didn't last long. "Hyphen" managed seven yards on his first six carries with runs of 2, -1, 3, 1, 0, and 2 before Arizona turned to William Powell in the second quarter. Powell is hardly a game breaker, but he's at least a functional runner between the tackles and I'd expect him to match or perhaps improve upon last week's 14 touches this Sunday. Unfortunately, he goes from facing Buffalo's No. 32 run defense to Minnesota's top-11 unit and is sure to have fewer running lanes. Powell is a low-upside flex option in Week 7. ... Third-stringer Alfonso Smith was briefly on the fantasy radar in 2011, but he's well behind Stephens-Howling and Powell this year. Smith played two offensive snaps against the Bills and didn't receive a touch. ... Todd Heap is always hurt, Rob Housler is a situational player, and Jeff King is a blocker. Avoid Cardinals tight ends in fantasy.
Score Prediction: Vikings 21, Cardinals 17
Dallas @ Carolina
The Cowboys' offense emerged from its Week 5 bye humming in last Sunday's narrow loss to the Ravens. They got to the edges in the running game and exploited Baltimore's outside corners with Dez Bryant's physicality. (You probably heard more about Dez's two-point conversion drop, but he secured 13-of-15 targets in the game.) While Dallas came up short, it was a promising effort for a unit long on talent if short on consistency. And it should theoretically carry over into this week's tilt versus Carolina's No. 23 defense. ... Tony Romo has played well in just 2-of-5 games this season, but he may have found a groove after the open date. Though Romo didn't hit any big downfield plays at Baltimore, he was sharp in the short to intermediate sections of the field. Carolina is vulnerable to vertical bombs due to poor safety play and inconsistent pass rush. Dallas figures to pass more in the wake of DeMarco Murray's (foot) loss, and Romo stands to benefit. ... Panthers LCB Chris Gamble suffered a setback Thursday morning with a lingering shoulder injury and was ruled out against the Cowboys. Bryant may match up with rookie RCB Josh Norman more in this game, anyway, because Norman covers Dez's usual side of the field. With 21 grabs for 200 yards and two scores in his last two games, Bryant is locked back in as a WR1.
Friday Update: Bryant was a late-week addition to the injury report after missing Friday's practice with a groin injury. While Bryant did make the trip to Carolina, he'll likely be a full-blown game-time decision. Bryant is too good and the matchup too favorable to sit him in fantasy leagues if he's active, but we probably won't get an effective read on his status until Sunday morning. If Bryant missed the game, the Cowboys would turn to Ogletree as the starter opposite Austin. Dwayne Harris would figure to be the No. 3 receiver, with some Cole Beasley mixed in.
Saturday Update: ESPN's Adam Schefter and Ed Werder are now both reporting the Cowboys expect Bryant to start Sunday's game. The fact that the team is so confident about Dez's availability suggests they view the groin soreness as a minor issue. Start Bryant confidently.
Attacking Baltimore with perimeter runs may have been just as much a concession that Dallas no longer trusts its interior offensive line as it was a matter of identifying the Ravens as a defense exposable by stretch-zone plays. Outside runs are Felix Jones' bread and butter, and he looked like a different, more explosive back in a running offense emphasizing his strengths. Jones totaled 105 yards and a touchdown on 19 touches and averaged 5.11 yards per carry. Slated for Week 7 feature back duties with Murray shelved, Jones is an upside RB2 play against the Panthers' bottom-ten run defense. ... Phillip Tanner will be second in line for carries at Carolina. Tanner is a power runner who gets what's blocked and can break tackles. You could do worse for a Week 7 desperation flex option. ... Commandingly retaking Dallas' No. 3 pass option role from Week 1 FOY (Fluke of the Year) Kevin Ogletree, Jason Witten has strung together consecutive productive efforts to get himself squarely back on the TE1 radar. Romo's target distribution over his last three games: Bryant 36, Witten 27, Miles Austin 20, Ogletree 16. ... Austin is coming off his slowest week of the season, ostensibly because the Cowboys looked to feature Bryant in his matchups with Cary Williams and Jimmy Smith. Austin drew Ravens top CB Lardarius Webb until Webb tore his ACL, but Romo kept going to Bryant. Austin may be more WR2/3 than the legit WR1 he produced as in the Cowboys' initial four games, but he's certainly a nice fantasy bet against the Panthers. And even more so if Bryant sits out the game.
Losing perennial Pro Bowl C Ryan Kalil (Lisfranc) for the season has created a domino effect on Carolina's offensive line, with new starters at three different positions. The full impact of Kalil's loss remains to be seen, but it can't be good news for timeshare backs Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams. Pro Football Focus rated Kalil as a top-ten run-blocking center in each of the past three years. ... Stewart has played in three games this season and hasn't topped 12 touches in any of them. When Stewart has been healthy, Williams' season high is 14 touches. I can tell you with certainty that Stewart is the better back, but they're both week-to-week dice-roll flex options due to the way they are utilized. Dallas is playing top-13 run defense, so both Carolina runners may struggle in Week 7. Stewart is the superior bet if picking between the two. ... The Panthers' target distribution on the season: Steve Smith 38, Greg Olsen 34, Brandon LaFell 24, Mike Tolbert 14, Louis Murphy 11, Williams 7, and Stewart 6. ... Cowboys defensive coordinator Rob Ryan is a schemer. Particularly in the passing game, Ryan has shown an ability to effectively eliminate the opposition's top weapon with one of the league's most gifted secondaries. Ryan's defense held Hakeem Nicks to a 4-38 line in Week 1, Sidney Rice to 3-33 in Week 2, Vincent Jackson to 1-29 in Week 3, and Torrey Smith to under 25 yards last week. While it's difficult to imagine benching Smith unless you're unbelievably loaded at wide receiver, I think he may struggle in this game.
If Ryan does take Smith away, it could translate to impressive box-score production from Olsen. Having clearly bypassed LaFell as Cam Newton's No. 2 pass option, Olsen is a solid bet to lead Carolina in Week 7 receiving. ... LaFell ranks a lowly 63rd in per-game fantasy receiver scoring and isn't going to break out this season. ... I was interviewed by The Score website this week and gave my thoughts on Newton. Here's a link. There are discouraging signs on Cam. I do believe it's well within the capability of Newton and playcaller Rob Chudzinski to right the ship, and trust Chud to have fixed some things during the Week 6 bye. I also think there is reason to believe the Panthers will have trouble throwing the ball against the Cowboys' top-ranked pass defense. And they'll have trouble moving the ball at all if they don't show greater commitment to a base run game. The Panthers play Dallas this week and the Bears in Week 8. My tentative expectation is Newton will experience two more slow weeks and catch fire down the stretch. Attempting to be a forward-looking fantasy owner, I will be targeting Newton for buy-low opportunities leading into Week 9.
Score Prediction: Cowboys 27, Panthers 20
New Orleans @ Tampa Bay
The Week 6 box score suggests Josh Freeman lit up the Chiefs, but his on-field performance was quite a bit less impressive. Accuracy remains a big issue for Freeman, and he continues to look skittish and uncomfortable in rookie OC Mike Sullivan's offense, leading to ball-placement issues. The good news is Freeman can power the ball downfield, and is armed with two field stretchers in Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams. Freeman might have another productive game in Week 7 because New Orleans' defense is similarly awful to Kansas City's, but based on last week's play, the Tampa quarterback has yet not turned his season around. ... Much has been made of the Saints' run-defense struggles, but they're equally poor against the pass, due largely to an inability to put pressure on passers. Only the Chiefs allow a higher yards-per-pass-attempt average, and enemy quarterbacks complete over 67 percent of their throws against the Saints. It's the ultimate recipe for big passing stats. V-Jax is a legit WR1 in Week 7, and Williams is squarely on the WR2 radar due to improved recent play. Jackson is currently the No. 9 overall fantasy receiver in points per game. Williams is No. 22, but he's coming off back-to-back 110-plus-yard games.
Last week's box score is humorously deceptive as it relates to Tampa Bay's backfield. Doug Martin was the clear-cut feature runner when the game was at all in doubt. He ran with more confidence against the Chiefs inside the tackles, and got into space twice for big-play receptions. Martin is a much, much better running back than LeGarrette Blount, and he has locked himself back in as an RB2 coming off the 131-total yard effort. Start Martin confidently against New Orleans' No. 31 run defense. ... Blount got five of his seven carries and 53 of his 58 yards with five minutes left in the game and the Bucs up 31-10. He could generously be characterized as a clock-killer. Realistically, he was playing in complete garbage time. Blount may look good as an on-paper flex if you take last week's stats and apply them to this matchup, but that's also a great way to get yourself in trouble. Blount's role has not noticeably increased, and he isn't going to be on the football field if the Bucs fall behind the Saints. Don't walk into this trap door.
I dropped Mark Ingram in one of my leagues two weeks ago. He just has so many factors working against him, as seven carry-a-game back who only plays on obvious run downs. I suppose Ingram could do well Sunday if the Saints grab a big lead and enter clock-killing mode, but I personally have thrown in the towel. I think it's a usage and scheme issue; not an indictment of Ingram's individual talent. ... NFL teams rarely make the high-impact "tweaks" we hope for during byes, but it certainly would've made sense for the Saints to discuss getting Darren Sproles the rock more during their Week 6 open date. Sproles exceeded ten touches just once in the first five weeks and is well off his 2011 yardage and workload pace. The Bucs play tough run defense, ranking fourth in the NFL in that category. New Orleans can avoid the stout front by getting their "satellite" back out in space. I like Sproles as a Week 7 flex play and believe he'll fare better in the final 11 games than he did in the initial five. ... Screen-pass sensation Pierre Thomas is averaging ten touches for 64 total yards per game and has yet to discover pay dirt on the season. He's not a terrible low-end flex play, but has a difficult Week 7 matchup and is generally a better real-life than fantasy player.
Tampa Bay's one-dimensional defense shuts down run games but is exposable through the air. Top CB Aqib Talib is now on game two of his four-week suspension and will be replaced by E.J. Biggers against the Saints. The Bucs' 31st-ranked pass defense should prove no match for Drew Brees. Even with an early-season bye, Brees is a top-five fantasy quarterback on the year. ... Remember Marques Colston's "slow start"? Me neither. Colston has a ridiculous 18 catches for 284 yards and four touchdowns in his last two games and will be a WR1 the rest of the way. The Week 6 bye could only help Colston's plantar fasciitis recovery. ... Colston is a slot receiver, and Lance Moore plays outside. It may seem odd, but Moore actually stands to benefit more from Talib's absence than New Orleans' No. 1 receiver. If Jimmy Graham (ankle) is limited or doesn't play Sunday, it's reasonable to think that Moore would also be the beneficiary in that respect. Moore is a strong bye-week WR3 with upside. ... Avoid Devery Henderson, please. He's gone 1-for-4 on halfway decent fantasy performances and has always been a tease as a clear-out route runner in Sean Payton and Pete Carmichael's offenses. Henderson is never a featured receiver in the scheme. It would not be surprising if Greg Camarillo outproduced him against the Bucs. ... There has been some buzz of Graham being used as a decoy in Week 7. I own Graham in a couple of leagues and am starting him if he's active for the game, regardless of speculation.
Saturday Update: Camarillo was released on Saturday to make room for LB Jonathan Vilma's activation from PUP. More importantly, Graham has been ruled out against the Buccaneers. David Thomas will replace him in the lineup, although the Saints won't be dialing up any pass plays intended for Thomas and he's not sure to be an every-down player. Look elsewhere for a Week 7 fallback option at tight end.
Score Prediction: Saints 30, Bucs 21
Green Bay @ St. Louis
We knew Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay's passing offense weren't firing on all cylinders entering Week 6. Game-tape watchers suggested Rodgers was playing like a "rattled quarterback," which seemed to bode poorly versus Houston's No. 4 pass defense. But we also knew the pass attack was capable of hitting full stride at any time, and that's precisely what occurred in Green Bay's 42-24 dismantling of the previously undefeated Texans. Vaulting his overall fantasy QB ranking all the way to No. 1 after a slow start, an indefensible Rodgers has now completed 81 of his last 118 passes (68.6 percent) for 953 yards (8.08 YPA) and a 13:2 TD-to-INT ratio. St. Louis' No. 5 pass defense is tough, but Houston had a pretty on-paper ranking, too. Matchups don't matter when Rodgers is on a roll. ... If the Packers' offensive staff has watched any tape of the Rams' defense over the past two weeks -- and they surely have -- Green Bay will be attacking rookie RCB Janoris Jenkins on Sunday. Opposing receivers have been getting behind Jenkins, and he's had his fair share of mental lapses. Jordy Nelson is a top-11 fantasy wideout over the past three weeks, and I expect him to draw Jenkins in coverage for most of this game. ... James Jones gets a tougher matchup versus Rams LCB Bradley Fletcher, who played a huge role in eliminating Brian Hartline (0 catches, 2 targets) from Week 6. You can perhaps use that as a lineup-decision tiebreaker if you're loaded at receiver, but Jones is awfully hard to sit with six TDs in his past three games.
Alex Green's final stats against the Texans weren't spectacular (22-65, 1-8), but his usage was promising. Aside from dominating touches over James Starks and John Kuhn, Green played 70 percent of Green Bay's offensive snaps and was consistently left in for blitz-pickup assignments, which was a previous knock. Packers backs combined for just two red-zone touches at Houston, but Green got both, including a carry inside the two-yard line. Green's largely pedestrian run skills limit his long-range upside, but he's squarely on the low-end RB2/flex radar against St. Louis. The Rams rank a respectable 13th against the run, but have surrendered six rushing touchdowns in six games and the workload should be there. ... I jumped off the Jermichael Finley bandwagon two weeks ago and would be looking to upgrade at tight end if he were my current starter. Finley has all the talent in the world, but he doesn't get the job done on game days. He's the No. 22 fantasy tight end set to take on a Rams defense that surrenders the eighth-fewest fantasy points to the position. Finley is a back-end TE1 at best at this point. ... Randall Cobb projects to draw Rams slot CB Cortland Finnegan in primary coverage Sunday. I'd never discourage you from starting Cobb because he's a big-time player with dynamic ability, but this is a tough matchup.
Chatter has picked up again of impressive rookie Daryl Richardson making a move on Steven Jackson's starting job. After watching the Week 6 Dolphins-Rams game, I can say confidently that Richardson won't be St. Louis' starter barring S-Jax injury. While Jackson continues to run at a much higher level than his fantasy scoring suggests, Richardson is settling in as an exciting, but limited change-of-pace back. Richardson gained 88 of his 99 yards against Miami on toss sweeps and screens, which accounted for six of his 13 touches. He netted 11 yards on the other seven. Richardson brings a backfield speed element that St. Louis hasn't had in years, but I think his increased Week 6 role was part of a game plan-specific strategy to attack a top-five run defense on the edges. I'd be wary of chasing Richardson's last-week stats into Week 7, and I wonder if he possesses the physicality and inside running chops to make it as a long-term feature back. He only broke one tackle all game at Miami. ... Jackson again looked awesome against the Dolphins. He made unblocked defenders miss and ran with decisive ferocity inside. Jackson lost three yards on a first-quarter carry when RE Jared Odrick knifed into the backfield and had a physical, eight-yard second-quarter run called back by penalty. St. Louis' anemic offense and the offensive line's consistent inability to win at the point of attack are clearly working against Jackson, but his sheer run skills have not declined. I like S-Jax as an RB2 play against Green Bay's No. 17 run defense.
Friday Update: Enhancing Jackson's fantasy matchup will be the absences of Packers NT B.J. Raji (ankle), who was formally ruled out on Friday, and every-down ILB D.J. Smith, who tore his ACL in last week's win. The Rams will start Joseph Barksdale at left tackle in this game due to two injuries in front of him on the depth chart. St. Louis is certain to struggle in pass protection Sunday, and must lean on the run game to keep this contest competitive.
In the absence of slot machine and target monster Danny Amendola, the Rams efforted to get the ball to two receivers in particular against the Fins: Chris Givens and Brandon Gibson. Matched up with Dolphins top cornerback Sean Smith, Gibson enjoyed perhaps his best career on-field game, shaking off a first-drive drop to secure 7-of-9 targets for 91 yards. Givens, targeted seven times, hauled in a 50-plus-yard bomb for the third straight week and has mastered the art of the vertical streak. There's just no completeness to his game. Against Green Bay, Gibson and Givens are both dice-roll WR3s. ... Steve Smith, Austin Pettis, and Brian Quick were the other three Rams receivers involved in Week 6. Quick (two targets) ran an incorrect route and let Sam Bradford's pass hit him in the back on St. Louis' final drive. Pettis (three targets) caught one ball for 11 yards. Smith (two targets) was more efficient with 18 yards on two grabs and perhaps will get a longer look against the Packers. ... Bradford puts impressive RPMs on throws and can be a precision passer from a clean pocket. He gets jumpy under pressure, and the rookie Givens is St. Louis' only wideout who can separate downfield. I strongly doubt Bradford will be a fantasy asset until his line and receiver corps are upgraded. And we may not see Bradford reach that point until 2014.
Score Prediction: Packers 27, Rams 16
Washington @ NY Giants
Robert Griffin III's 76-yard touchdown sprint generated all the highlights after Washington's Week 6 upset of Minnesota, but his precise passing isn't getting enough credit. Griffin completed 77.3 percent of his 22 attempts and was surgical at the intermediate level. ESPN's Trent Dilfer summed up Griffin as a pure thrower nicely on this week's Monday Night Countdown. "What I want to focus on is his accuracy," Dilfer said. "The ball finishes on the facemask every single time it comes out." Griffin's rushing stats make him the highest weekly upside play among fantasy quarterbacks, and his passing numbers stabilize his consistency. I also think you can make a strong argument that Minnesota's defense has played better than the Giants' this year. Settling in as a matchup-proof machine, RG3 needs to be in your fantasy lineup every week. ... Pierre Garcon (foot) has been shut down indefinitely, leaving the Redskins' pass-catching corps as clear as mud. Here is RG3's target distribution in Garcon's three missed games this season: Fred Davis 16, Leonard Hankerson 13, Josh Morgan 12, Santana Moss 10, Aldrick Robinson 6. ... All told, that's 15 games worth of data and none of those pass catchers has topped seven targets in any missed week by Garcon. Even against a banged-up, vulnerable Giants secondary, I don't think there's a receiver on Washington's roster who's a safe bet to exceed 60 yards in Week 7.
My preference is Hankerson, perhaps because I have some built-in bias after studying him a bit in the offseason and think he's a solid young player. He will start for Garcon, but won't be heavily targeted and is a low-upside WR3. ... The Giants can mask pass-defense deficiencies with an attacking, explosive front four, but they're not a great run-defending team. Permitting a generous 4.55 YPC average to opponents, New York poses minimal threat to Alfred Morris' Week 7 outlook. Morris ranks fourth in the NFL in both rushing and fantasy running back points. Only Arian Foster, Marshawn Lynch, and Stevan Ridley have received more carries. It wouldn't be too bold to deem Morris a locked-and-loaded RB1. ... Savvy Morris owners should have Evan Royster rostered as a handcuff. Royster is clearly out in front of Ryan Grant, the latter of whom has so far played one snap as a Redskin. Royster has played 67 in six appearances, primarily as a third-down back. I think it's fair to wonder whether Royster might actually score more fantasy points than Morris if he happened into the starting job. Morris is a two-down thumper. Royster would be a true every-down back, and like Morris would benefit from the scheme getting him yards. This is a dominant running offense. Even if I didn't own Morris, I'd roster Royster as a high-ceiling stash.
With the healthy return of LT Will Beatty and demotion of annual liability David Diehl, Eli Manning is enjoying the best protection of his career. New York's offensive line was the team's biggest weakness during its 2011 Super Bowl run. This year, it's a strength. Eli hasn't been sacked in 13 quarters, and has absorbed just one sack in the last five games. With his pass-catching corps finally turning a corner in terms of health, Manning is rearing to get white hot beginning with Sunday's mismatch against Washington's last-ranked pass defense. ... Hakeem Nicks disappointed owners with a 3-44 Week 6 stat line, although that was due at least partially to New York taking the air out of the football with a big lead. Manning's 28 pass attempts were a season low. Fire up Nicks against the Redskins' sieve-like secondary after a full practice week. He hasn't been this healthy in a month. ... Victor Cruz is tied with Reggie Wayne for the NFL's targets lead and ranks behind only James Jones in receiving touchdowns. An every-week WR1, Cruz will spend most of Sunday's game in mouthy and burnable Redskins LCB DeAngelo Hall's coverage. Hall replaced Richard Crawford at slot corner on passing downs last week and unsurprisingly got whipped by Percy Harvin. Cruz probably has the best Week 7 matchup of any Giants receiver.
Domenik Hixon has settled back in as New York's No. 3 receiver. He played 22-of-65 snaps (33.8 percent) in last week's blowout win over the 49ers and is a bottom-barrel WR3 regardless of how the box score reads. ... Ramses Barden is the No. 4 wideout, Rueben Randle is No. 5, and Jerrel Jernigan is No. 6. ... Ahmad Bradshaw's sell-high window is in full effect; it's time to bail on him while you still can. While Bradshaw has strung together consecutive impressive efforts with the G-Men using more I-formation looks behind lead blocker Henry Hynoski, this week's appearance on the injury report with a foot ailment is a sign of things to come. The Giants know it, and they plan to get a healthy Andre Brown and rookie David Wilson more involved in response. Start Bradshaw if you can't deal him before Sunday's kick, but his Weeks 5-6 stats will prove a flash in the pan. ... A quote from NFL Films guru Greg Cosell on Wilson this week: "That guy's got serious juice, now. He plays the game at a little faster speed than other people. ... The guy is a superior talent running the football." Wilson remains a recommended RB5/6 stash. ... Martellus Bennett is off the Week 7 injury report, but whether he'll match his early-season production remains to be seen. Bennett does have a strong matchup this week. Washington has allowed NFC highs in receptions and yardage to tight ends.
Friday Update: Bradshaw missed practice on Friday and is listed as questionable on the injury report. He'll be a game-time decision against the Redskins. The Giants have seemed optimistic about Bradshaw's status, but this is clearly a mild setback at the very least, and almost certainly a product of his workloads over the past two games. Check Rotoworld's Player News page on Sunday morning for Bradshaw's official status. If he's declared inactive, I'd look for Brown to get the start and Wilson to be worked in as an explosive change of pace.
Score Prediction: Giants 27, Redskins 20
Baltimore @ Houston
Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb's season-ending injuries were headline stories all this week, but Baltimore's defense was springing leaks long before the personnel losses, ranking 26th in yards allowed and 15th in points. Be it due to comeback-driven deficits or philosophical change -- or both -- the best way to counteract ineffective defense is by scoring more points. From a fantasy perspective, Joe Flacco and his pass-catching corps stand to benefit from increasingly aggressive plans of attack. While Houston is often recognized for imposing defense, it has shown plenty of susceptibility to the pass against the Jets and Packers in the last two weeks. Former shutdown CB Johnathan Joseph is getting picked on playing hurt, and do-everything ILB Brian Cushing is out for the year. Perhaps Flacco should be approached as a back-end QB1 until we see him consistently score like something more, but don't be surprised if he begins lighting up box scores. Down its emotional leader and top cover guy, it's up to Baltimore's contract-year passer to put this team on his back. ... Joseph's groin has become such an issue that he barely practiced this week and may not play. Considering how badly Joseph has been beaten recently, Torrey Smith might want him to suit up. Smith is a recommended WR2 in Week 7 regardless of Joseph's status. This game has shootout potential and Smith is the No. 12 overall fantasy receiver.
Bigger game-day roles for Anquan Boldin mean slower ones for TE Dennis Pitta, and we've seen that play out now in three straight weeks. Flacco's target distribution over that span: Boldin 28, Smith and Ray Rice 18, Jacoby Jones 12, Pitta 11. ... It's worth noting that Pro Football Focus has charted Pitta with just 63-of-114 snaps played (55.3 percent) over the past two games. Boldin is at 88.6 percent. Pitta is clearly a TE2. ... Boldin is a recommended sell high during his hot streak. He's faded sharply down the stretch of the last two seasons and is a year older now. Waiting one more game to move Boldin might prove most beneficial, though. In last season's October meeting with the Texans, Boldin went off for 132 yards on eight receptions. ... Houston ranks in the top seven against the run, but matchups don't matter for Rice. He's already faced three top-15 run defenses and touched them up for a combined 408 total yards, three touchdowns, and a 5.06 YPC average.
Early in the year, the smart money would have been on Ravens-Texans producing a low-scoring result. But injuries have piled up fast on each side, and Vegas has recognized the increasingly ineffective defense being played by Baltimore and Houston. The 48.5 over-under on this game is the third highest of Week 7. ... This was Cosell's assessment of Andre Johnson in Adam Caplan's Week 7 preview podcast. "I think he is (slowing down) a little bit," Cosell said. "I don't think he's quite as explosive as a route runner versus man coverage. I think watching him on tape, it's not as if he's become slow and plodding. But I don't think he quite has that incredible explosiveness that he's had in the past." Cosell is onto something, but I'm still confident Johnson has enough left to defeat cornerbacks like Baltimore's Jimmy Smith and Cary Williams, on whom opponents regularly pick. (See last week's 13-95-2 stat line by Dez Bryant.) Johnson is also more likely to be productive in close, high-scoring affairs like this one projects. Start Johnson with confidence. ... Owen Daniels had his slowest game of the season in last week's blowout loss to the Packers, securing three passes for 46 yards. Daniels remains second on the Texans in pass targets, and Baltimore has allowed the fourth most yards to tight ends through six weeks. Daniels is a TE1.
Look for Houston to open this game attacking with the run, primarily because Baltimore has been so leaky against it recently. Kansas City and Dallas' ground games combined to tag the Ravens for 441 yards and a touchdown on 93 carries (4.74 YPC) in Weeks 5-6. The 93 attempts against is extreme volume, suggesting clubs are seeing poor run fits by Baltimore on tape. Arian Foster's per-touch averages are down this season, and if you've watched the Texans' last three games, you may have noticed Foster slipping more than ever, particularly on strong-side runs. I think it's because he doesn't trust his blocks at right guard and right tackle, where Houston has used rare in-game rotations. Whatever the case, Foster remains the No. 1 fantasy running back scorer and has a favorable Week 7 matchup. ... Ben Tate teased with one big early-season game because Houston was blowing out a weak opponent (Jacksonville in Week 2). He's otherwise been of no fantasy use. Tate plays a significant ball-carrying role only when the Texans get big leads, and I'm betting against them getting one in Week 7. He has lots of downside for a flex play.
Score Prediction: Ravens 30, Texans 27
Tennessee @ Buffalo
I re-watched the Titans' Week 6 upset of Pittsburgh late last Sunday and came away genuinely impressed by Chris Johnson. While he could have made a few better reads to gain more yards, there's little doubt that CJ?K ran harder than he has all season and was slippery in the open field. Johnson also put more effort into his pass blocking, which I believe speaks to his improved focus. The jury remains out on Johnson's season-long outlook, but he's now compiled 256 yards on his last 59 carries (4.34 YPC) and gone over 100 total yards in two of his last three games. The skepticism on Johnson might be stronger if he wasn't facing the NFL's last-ranked run defense in Week 7. Trot him out there; he won't get a more favorable matchup all year. ... Matt Hasselbeck will pick up one more start as the Titans nurse back Jake Locker from a twice-dislocated left (non-throwing) shoulder. Hasselbeck has very little left in terms of intermediate and downfield passing ability, but keep in mind this terrible, underachieving Bills defense has already been gashed by Mark Sanchez and Alex Smith. They allowed the Jets and Niners' below-average starters to combine for a 6:1 TD-to-INT ratio. Hasselbeck is worth a long look in two-quarterback leagues.
The Titans have made a concerted effort to feature Kenny Britt in their pass game whenever he's been healthy this season. That hasn't occurred often, of course, but he's all the way back from his ankle and knee woes after a ten-day layoff following last Thursday's game. While Britt caught four balls for 62 yards and a touchdown against Pittsburgh, he was clearly shaking off rust. Britt left yards on the field with two dropped passes and poorly-run routes. Britt is an absolute beast talent, though, and he won't struggle to get free against and physically outlast up-and-down Bills rookie RCB Stephon Gilmore. Buffalo ranks 20th versus the pass and has permitted a 13:6 TD-to-INT ratio. For Britt, this has the potential to be his 2012 breakout game. ... Titans targets in the two games this season when Britt has played 40 or more snaps: Britt 22, Kendall Wright 19, Nate Washington 13, Jared Cook 8, CJ?K and Damian Williams 6. ... The top two options in the pass game are clearly Britt and Wright. Washington is capable of big plays, but the Titans don't call pass plays for him nearly to the extent they do for the other two. Whereas I think Britt is a legit WR1 at Buffalo, Wright is a strong WR3 and Washington is worth a look for the desperate. ... Cook is another guy with playmaking ability. Although he's not an every-week starter, Cook is a worthwhile bye-week fill-in against a Buffalo defense allowing the fifth most yards to tight ends.
The Titans pulled out the aforementioned Week 6 win, but big leaks remained in the Tennessee defense. They tackled poorly, especially on Isaac Redman's embarrassing 105 yards worth of receiving plays, and got cooked deep on Mike Wallace's 82-yard touchdown bomb. There is really nothing the Titans do well on defense. Fire up your Bills. ... The C.J. Spiller-Fred Jackson time split can be frustrating, but they're both RB2s with upside versus Tennessee's No. 24 run defense. Jackson is Buffalo's primary inside runner and red-zone back. Averaging a scintillating 7.6 yards per carry and over eight yards per offensive touch, Spiller has quietly emerged as the single most dangerous in-space runner in football. Just as they did last week against the Cardinals, both Bills backs can have potent Week 7 fantasy games. ... After a two-game lull, Stevie Johnson turned in a quality, six-catch, 82-yard effort at Arizona and will maintain long-range consistency because he's force fed the football in Chan Gailey's passing offense. Johnson is an every-week WR2/3.
Tennessee has given up more production to tight ends than any defense in the league, although that fact doesn't necessarily alter Scott Chandler's Week 7 outlook. He's probably not going to suddenly rip off a seven-catch, 100-yard receiving day. Chandler needs touchdowns to be fantasy relevant. He hurts you when he doesn't score one. ... Donald Jones and T.J. Graham are role-player wideouts falling in line behind Johnson on the Buffalo target totem pole. They are not roster worthy in 12-team leagues. ... Ryan Fitzpatrick got off to his annual hot start. And it appears his annual fade has gotten underway earlier this year. Fitzpatrick is 34-of-58 (58.6 percent) for 279 yards (4.81 YPA) and no touchdowns over his last two games. The defenses he faced (Arizona, San Francisco) are much tougher than Tennessee's, but Fitzpatrick's accuracy, arm strength, and pass protection are all big obstacles standing in his way of sustained QB1 numbers. He's a QB2.
Score Prediction: Bills 24, Titans 20
Cleveland @ Indianapolis
Last week's blowout loss to the Jets may have provided a glimpse into Andrew Luck's year-long fantasy outlook. Take away Reggie Wayne, and you can shut down the Colts' offense. Wayne finished Week 6 with 87 yards on five grabs, but was essentially eliminated by Antonio Cromartie until complete garbage time. 57 of Wayne's yards were gained after the 7:30 mark in the fourth quarter, with Indy trailing by 19-plus points. T.Y. Hilton, Donnie Avery, Coby Fleener, and Dwayne Allen are all fine complementary-type players, but none of them has stepped up as anything more. Start Luck against Cleveland's 30th-ranked pass defense if you're strapped on a bye, but don't go trading your QB1 yet thinking Luck can be the guy. ... Wayne can expect to be followed around the formation by CB Joe Haden in this game. Haden played better against the Bengals than A.J. Green's mammoth 7-135-2 line suggests, but his coverage isn't quite shutdown-caliber enough to make Wayne bench-able. Wayne is the No. 7 overall fantasy receiver and remains tied with Victor Cruz for the NFL's targets lead. ... Allen, Fleener, and Hilton are interesting keeper prospects. They're unappealing in standard re-draft leagues, even during desperate bye weeks.
Possessing speed to burn but incredibly inefficient, Avery has turned his last 29 targets into a pathetic nine catches for 110 yards. He hasn't hit pay dirt since Week 1. Avery continually gets favorable matchups across from Wayne -- and the ball continually goes his way -- but he's been a total fantasy tease. Play Avery at your own risk. ... Vick Ballard is a thoroughly mediocre talent. He won't hit big plays, and he's pulled on all passing downs for Mewelde Moore. But I don't think you can hold Ballard's Week 6 stat line (8-25, 2-17) against him because the Colts got down 14-3 early in the second quarter, bailed on the running game, and the deficit grew from there. Bench Ballard if you think that will happen again this week. If you think the Colts will stay competitive and/or win, Ballard is a viable flex. The Browns rank 26th against the run, surrender 4.64 yards per carry, and will be without SLB Scott Fujita (neck) in Week 7. ... The term "plodder" is probably overused on Rotoworld's website. I try to avoid it in this space. But I feel the need to use it here to describe Delone Carter, because Carter defines plodder. Carter received four carries off the bench in last week's game against the Jets, managing gains of one, five, three, and four yards. The Colts had one solitary red-zone carry in Week 6, and Ballard took it for a gain of one.
Browns rookie wide receiver Josh Gordon is 6'4/220, and he can really run. He's got great hands and a bright future. But his past two weeks' production is unsustainable from the standpoint that all three of his touchdowns came on busted coverage. In Week 5, it was Gordon taking a slot route vertical against Giants LB Chase Blackburn for 62-yard score, and finding pay dirt again from 20 yards out when LCB Corey Webster thought he had safety help. In Week 6, Gordon again ran vertical from the slot and got passed off by two Bengals defenders in a zone look. Brandon Weeden had all day to throw, and no one covered Gordon as he secured the 71-yard touchdown bomb. With Mohamed Massaquoi and Travis Benjamin back from injuries this week, will Gordon lose snaps? You could do worse for a bye-week WR3 against an Indy pass defense that isn't playing remotely as well as its No. 3 yardage-allowed ranking suggests, but Gordon remains a major roll of the dice. I wish the Browns were making more of an effort to get him the ball at the short and intermediate levels. Gordon was only targeted four times in Week 6. I think he's just as likely to catch two balls for 18 yards Sunday as he is to score again on a blown defensive play. ... Weeden continues to get better every week. He has a great arm and is a strong two-QB league option versus an Indianapolis defense that has surrendered a 10:2 TD-to-INT ratio against and the fourth highest quarterback rating (104.0) through the season's initial six weeks.
Another positive for Weeden is the absence of OLB Robert Mathis (knee), the Colts' best pass rusher. Browns LT Joe Thomas is capable of neutralizing RE Dwight Freeney on the other side. Weeden is deadly accurate with a clean pocket, and he should have one Sunday. ... Greg Little might be a more deserving candidate for a snaps reduction than Gordon. Although not quite on Avery's inefficiency level, Little has secured just nine of his last 21 targets for 112 yards, dropping five catchable passes in the process. ... In addition to being Indy's top sack threat, Mathis was the Colts' best second-level edge setter versus the run. They'll also be without five-technique run-stopping LE Cory Redding (knee), and ILB Pat Angerer (foot) is questionable. Trent Richardson's owners should breathe a big sigh of relief that he emerged healthy from last week's rib scare. This Colts team just served up Shonn Greene's best game in four years. Richardson should dominate carries over pedestrian backup Montario Hardesty and is a locked-in RB1 in Week 7. Look for Hardesty in a change-of-pace back role, perhaps handling 5-8 touches. ... Jordan Cameron has an awful lot of talent, and his playing time appears to be on the come up. Per Pro Football Focus, Cameron played a career-high 31 snaps in Week 6 and caught two balls for 38 yards. Cameron needs to clearly bypass Ben Watson before becoming a legit fantasy option.
Score Prediction: Browns 23, Colts 21
4:25PM ET Games
NY Jets @ New England
Shonn Greene deserves credit for running hard and shaking loose from defenders with surprising moves in New York's Week 6 drubbing of Indianapolis. He'll just be hard pressed to build on the performance with three straight upcoming matchups against top-six run defenses. The Patriots have allowed only two rushing touchdowns through six games and are yielding a paltry 3.37 YPC average. They stymied red-hot Marshawn Lynch (15-41-0) last week. The Jets face Miami (No. 5 run defense) and Seattle (No. 2) in their following two games. Greene's Week 6 effort created an ultimate sell-high opportunity ahead of Sunday's game. ... In Mark Sanchez's last three regular season tilts with the Pats, he's been limited to 53-of-98 passing (54.1 percent) for 636 yards (6.49 YPA), three touchdowns, and five picks. The Jets are 0-3. New England's No. 28 pass defense ranking doesn't look so imposing, but Sanchez has struggled against the Patriots when they've been much worse. He's not on the standard-league radar and would be a poor two-QB league bet.
Sanchez's target distribution since Santonio Holmes was lost for the season in Week 4: Jeremy Kerley 15, Chaz Schilens 9, Stephen Hill and Jason Hill 3, Dustin Keller 1. ... Despite the rookie Hill's Week 6 return from a hamstring injury, Schilens stayed in the starting lineup ahead of him and led Jets receivers in snaps. Kerley was second, but paced the way in targets and receiving stats for a second straight week. Hill won't be worth using in fantasy leagues until his role grows. He was a 29-percent player against the Colts. ... Kerley is the Jets' best wide receiver and worth a look as a WR3 in a game where New York could fall behind big, forcing Sanchez into pass-heavy comeback mode. ... Keller was targeted just the one time against Indianapolis, but returned to his normal on-field role after a two-month hamstring strain. Bill Belichick is aware of Keller's seam-stretching speed, and has rendered him a non-factor in New England's last four meetings with the Jets. Keller's final stat lines in those matchups: 2-37, 1-7, 3-15, 3-27. No touchdowns.
Aaron Hernandez was limited to 38-of-87 snaps in his Week 6 return from a four-game high ankle sprain, but he showed little or no ill effects on six receptions, including a red-zone touchdown on a fade over Seahawks S Jeron Johnson. Hernandez could have had another second-quarter score had Tom Brady not overthrown him wide open down the right seam. The Patriots entered the season with designs on making Hernandez their featured pass-game player, and he's a top-three TE1 this week. ... Rob Gronkowski had historically struggled for receiving production against Rex Ryan's defense until last November's meeting. Gronkowski busted his Jets slump with an 8-113-2 line in New England's 37-16 rout of New York. While Gronk hasn't found pay dirt in back-to-back weeks, he still ranks No. 4 among all fantasy tight ends and is an elite every-week starter. ... Wes Welker tired out Seattle slot CB Marcus Trufant in last Sunday's loss, piling up 10 catches for 138 yards and a touchdown. Welker played 77-of-87 downs and has locked himself in as an integral part of playcaller Josh McDaniels' offense, even with Hernandez back and Julian Edelman (hand) soon to follow. In Week 7, Welker will deal with practice squad-type CB Ellis Lankster and overwhelmed Jets former first-round pick Kyle Wilson on passing downs. Welker has had Wilson's number for two years and is a must-start in this game.
Stevan Ridley found little running room against Seattle's No. 2-ranked run defense, but ran with physicality and burst when he did. He's the same guy. Owners need to forget the slow box-score effort and start Ridley as an RB1 versus the Jets' 28th-ranked group. Ryan has tinkered with dropping 7-8 defenders into coverage in recent Patriots games, silver-plattering huge rushing stats for the likes of BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Ridley is way better than Law Firm and has a legit shot at a monster day. ... Brady's numbers in his last three regular season meetings with the Jets: 71-of-101 (70.3 percent) for 976 yards (9.66 YPA), and an 8:1 TD-to-INT ratio. The Patriots have won all three. Keep in mind Darrelle Revis played in all of them, and he's out now. Get set for a big effort from Tom Terrific. ... New England is destined for passing success on Sunday. While his matchup is difficult against red-hot Jets CB Antonio Cromartie, Brandon Lloyd got open against Seattle's similarly stout corners in Week 6 enough to gain 80 yards on six receptions. Expectations for Lloyd should be tempered, but I'm starting him as a WR2 in a bye-week crunch. ... Brandon Bolden (knee) didn't practice this week and won't play against the Jets. Ridley will dominate early-down rushing attempts and be a top-five running back start. ... Patriots passing-down back Danny Woodhead is averaging just over eight touches for 43 total yards per game. I suppose he's a viable desperation flex option in Week 7, but I personally try to aim higher. Woodhead won't help you unless he scores a fluke touchdown.
Score Prediction: Patriots 34, Jets 13
Jacksonville @ Oakland
Darren McFadden's trademark violence and explosion were missing on early-season runs, but the Week 5 bye seemed to do him some good. Oakland tweaked its zone-blocking scheme during the open date, incorporating power- and angle-based concepts. Although it didn't fully show in the box score at Atlanta, McFadden responded with a season-best game in Week 6. He totaled 98 yards and a touchdown, and had two long runs called back by penalties, including a ferocious first-half rumble for 21. Beginning with Jacksonville's 30th-ranked unit, McFadden has the most favorable rushing schedule in the league the rest of the way. The Raiders face just one run defense ranked higher than 20th over their next ten games. If there is still a buy-low window with your league's McFadden owner, this may be your last chance to pounce. The Jaguars have been gutted by the run and benched two defensive linemen during their Week 6 bye. The healthy return of Darrius Heyward-Bey and reemergence of Denarius Moore as a dangerous intermediate and vertical playmaker are additional boons to Oakland's running-game outlook. ... Mike Goodson busted 43- and 37-yard gains against the Falcons, but remains a change-of-pace back in OC Greg Knapp's offensive system. While clearly out in front of Taiwan Jones in the running back pecking order, Goodson has yet to exceed six touches in any game this season and is strictly DMC's handcuff.
Moore missed the opener with a hamstring injury, but he's been Carson Palmer's go-to guy since returning in Week 2. Palmer's target distribution in Oakland's last four games: Moore 35, Brandon Myers 19, Marcel Reece 17, Derek Hagan and Heyward-Bey 15, McFadden 14, Rod Streater 11. ... Moore burned Asante Samuel for an early-game 49-yard bomb in Week 6 and scored a 25-yard touchdown on a crosser, making three defenders miss after the catch. The Raiders' usage of Moore as more than just a sideline-running deep threat bodes well for his consistency. He is the featured player in Oakland's pass game, and fantasy owners should feel comfortable riding Moore as an every-week WR3 from here on out. ... Moore will find openings downfield against the Jags' secondary. Jacksonville's pass rush has been nonexistent -- ranking last in the NFL in sacks -- and will be without top cover safety Dwight Lowery (ankle). ... Heyward-Bey has been injured and unproductive. We need to see him put something in a box score. Despite leading Raiders wide receivers in Week 6 snaps, Heyward-Bey was targeted twice and held catch-less. ... Myers is just a guy. He has no playmaking ability and a weekly ceiling of about five catches for 60 yards. ... Hagan has passed Streater on the depth chart, but neither is a fantasy option. ... Palmer is throwing the ball much better than the chatter might indicate and this is a great matchup for him.
The Raiders are not considered one of the NFL's better pass-rushing teams. They rank 31st in sacks and have underachieved despite a talented front four. Welp, that front four came to play against the Falcons last week and harassed the heck out of Matt Ryan, hitting him nine times and forcing "Matty Ice" into three picks. This all bodes poorly for Jacksonville's passing game, which flatlines whenever Blaine Gabbert feels duress. ... The Jaguars have publicly vowed to force feed Justin Blackmon the football coming out of their bye week. Blackmon has yet to hit 50 yards in a game this season while struggling to get open. We'll see how that goes. ... Cecil Shorts has displayed more big-play ability than Blackmon and will start in place of concussed Laurent Robinson. From a fantasy perspective, it's just hard to trust any pass catcher when Gabbert's the guy throwing him the ball. Even in a favorable matchup like this. ... If Mike Mularkey is going to last longer than one season as Jaguars coach, he may need to win a few games. In Week 7, handing the rock to Maurice Jones-Drew relentlessly against Oakland's No. 18 run defense is Mularkey's best option. Despite the offensive mess around him, MJD is a strong fantasy buy low.
Score Prediction: Raiders 24, Jaguars 16
Sunday Night Football
Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati
A.J. Green put together an excellent rookie season. The fact that he's way better this year is kind of scary. He's 24. Green leads the league in receiving yards through six games, and no NFL wideout has scored more fantasy points. He also scored a touchdown in each of his 2011 meetings with the Steelers. Now set to face declining RCB Ike Taylor and struggling LCB Keenan Lewis, Green is poised to set the Pittsburgh defense ablaze. ... Andy Dalton's on-field play has now underwhelmed in back-to-back weeks, although he's come away with four passing scores and 615 yards; legit QB1 stats. Dalton has turned the ball over six times. The Steelers' defense is a shell of its former self and won't have SS Troy Polamalu (calf), so ride Dalton if you believe he'll stay hot. Perhaps I'm stubborn, but I'm convinced his hot box-score run will end sooner rather than later. Dalton has been preying on weak defenses, and isn't half the passer his stats suggest. At No. 4, Pittsburgh is the first pass defense Dalton has faced this year that ranks higher than 22nd. ... Jermaine Gresham has played three career games against the Steelers and never topped 37 yards. He's an integral blocker against OLBs James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis played 75.1 percent of Cincinnati's offensive snaps in the season's first month. Coaches were displeased with Green-Ellis' productivity, and he's been a 44-percent back the past two games. In last week's loss to the Browns, Cedric Peerman showed better burst than Green-Ellis on nine touches, and Peerman has certainly demonstrated superior passing-down tools. Pittsburgh's run defense isn't impenetrable like it once was, but Green-Ellis' role is diminishing and he will struggle to provide RB2-caliber stats without a goal-line carry. His fantasy arrow continues to point directly down. ... Peerman's eight catches for 76 yards in Week 6 aren't repeatable, but he's a candidate for 7-12 touches against Pittsburgh. You should still be able to find better flex options. ... It would make sense for Cincinnati to pursue a tailback upgrade before the October 30 trade deadline. Bernard Scott is gone for the year, and the backs they have right now are role player-caliber at best. ... Andrew Hawkins has dynamic change-of-direction skills and straight-line speed, but the Bengals don't get him the football enough. “Baby Hawk” is averaging five touches for 43 yards over his last three games and he hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 3. Hawkins could be a Wes Welker type of player if he were utilized with more frequency.
So much for a healthy Steelers team after their Week 4 bye. Banged up in last Thursday night's humbling loss to Tennessee, Pittsburgh will be minus RT Marcus Gilbert (ankle) on Sunday night, and may not have C Maurkice Pouncey (knee), either. Both injury situations are exploitable by Cincinnati's vastly underrated defensive line. A dominant talent, LE Carlos Dunlap should run circles around fill-in rookie RT Mike Adams. If Pouncey missed the game, No. 2 center Doug Legursky would have to fend off penetrating sparkplug DT Geno Atkins, who leads all defensive tackles in sacks (6.0). Cincinnati can win this battle in the trenches, neutralizing the Steelers' run game and affecting the passing attack. ... Rashard Mendenhall (Achilles') and Isaac Redman (ankle) didn't practice all week and are out for the game. Jonathan Dwyer, Baron Batch, and rookie scatback Chris Rainey are next up on the running back depth chart. In what should have been a favorable run-game matchup, the Pittsburgh backfield is shaping up as a three-way committee and fantasy situation to avoid. Dwyer is the best bet of the remaining three Steelers backs for early-down and goal-line carries against the Bengals. ... The line casualties could affect Heath Miller's Sunday Night Football stats if he's forced to assist overmatched rookie Adams with help blocks in the Dunlap matchup. Miller is a TE2 in Week 7.
Saturday Update: Multiple Steelers beat writers are forecasting Dwyer as Pittsburgh's starting tailback on Sunday Night Football. The matchup is fairly intriguing because Cincinnati's defense is vulnerable to the run game at the second level. If Dwyer gets a few nice blocks from the front five, he could be sprung for a few nice runs. He's worth a long look as a desperation flex play. Batch will likely play on passing downs, with Rainey coming in for gadget-type plays and perhaps a screen or two. Rainey doesn't carry the ball between the tackles.
Mike Wallace's Week 6 stat line (2-94-1) satisfied fantasy owners, but he could have had a bigger game. Wallace split Titans LCB Jason McCourty and FS Michael Griffin's zone coverage on a first-quarter double move, only to drop the slightly overthrown would-be 15-yard touchdown pass. Wallace was targeted again in the end zone in the third quarter, only to be overthrown for a second time by Ben Roethlisberger. Despite a slim stature (6'0/199), Wallace is Big Ben's favorite red-zone option and has four TDs to show for it through five games. "60 Minutes" also has 19 catches, 320 yards, and three scores in his last four meetings with the Bengals. He's a good bet for a big Sunday night. ... Antonio Brown is skilled enough to turn his season around, but he's just 32nd in per-game fantasy receiver scoring and is dropping balls at an alarming rate. Brown has settled in as the clear No. 2 pass option in Pittsburgh, behind Wallace. Fantasy owners should still be willing to start Brown in a nice matchup versus Bengals LCB Nate Clements, who turns 33 in two months. ... Although Cincy's at-times dominant pass rush could impact his efficiency, Ben Roethlisberger remains on the back-end QB1 radar against the league's 17th-ranked pass defense. The Steelers are so shorthanded at running back that they may have to lean on Big Ben's arm to move the chains on Sunday night. Roethlisberger is currently the No. 9 overall quarterback in fantasy points per game.
Score Prediction: Steelers 20, Bengals 17
Monday Night Football
Detroit @ Chicago
Jay Cutler strung together back-to-back QB1-caliber fantasy efforts at Dallas and Jacksonville before Chicago's Week 6 bye. Cutler certainly can be an effective matchup play, but sustained consistency is so elusive because the Bears' porous offensive line can torpedo the pass game in any given week. Cutler will be without promising rookie wideout Alshon Jeffery on Monday Night Football due to a fractured hand, and Detroit's front four teed off on Michael Vick last week with 15 quarterback hits. The return of FS Louis Delmas (knee) is also a difference maker for the Lions' back four. If the Bears are smart, they will lean on Matt Forte, who is as healthy as he's been all year coming off an open date. Cutler is a high-end QB2 with some upside in this game, but there are better Week 7 standard-league streamer QB1s. ... Gunther Cunningham accepted the Lions' defensive coordinator job before the 2009 season, and Forte has had his unit's number ever since. In six career matchups with Cunningham's Detroit defense, Forte has poured on them an average of 130.5 total yards per game, 5.27 yards per carry, and five all-purpose touchdowns.
Cutler may struggle, but Brandon Marshall can still be an absolute terror for a Lions defense that may be minus two of its top three corners. RCB Jacob Lacey is coming off a concussion, and slot CB Bill Bentley has a bum shoulder. Marshall's average of 11.2 targets per game ranks third in the NFL, behind only Victor Cruz and Reggie Wayne. The Bears are effectively moving him all around the formation, creating favorable matchups and making Marshall more difficult to double team. Per Mike Clay of Rotoworld and Pro Football Focus, Marshall has played 51 percent of his snaps at split end, 32 percent at flanker, and 17 percent in the slot. 11 of Marshall's targets have come at slot receiver, and he's secured 15 of his 16 targets when aligned wide right. The Lions simply don't have a cornerback capable of containing him. ... Perhaps in response to the Jeffery injury, Bears OC Mike Tice this week talked up an expanded role for TE Kellen Davis. Davis is big and he moves well for his size, but this is an I'll-believe-it-when-I-see it deal. The guy has played in 69 career games, and topped 40 receiving yards in one of them. So let's root for Davis, but not start him in fantasy. ... Devin Hester figures to get the "start" in Jeffery's place, but a healthy Earl Bennett figures to play the second most snaps in the Bears' receiver corps Monday night.
The Bears' secondary is playing at as high a level as it ever has under Lovie Smith, but Chicago's Cover 2 has never solved Calvin Johnson. In Megatron's last seven meetings with the Bears, he's averaged six catches and 93 yards with four TDs. And Johnson may be more of a zone-beater than ever this year because of how often he's playing in the slot. ... Megatron is 6-foot-5, 239 and jumps 42.5 inches vertically. Bears slot CB D.J. Moore is 5'9/192 with a 39.5-inch vert. They may need a bigger boat. ... Megatron can have success against the Bears on Monday, but that may be where it ends for this Lions offense. Matthew Stafford is playing so poorly that he needs to be downgraded to QB2 status until he picks it back up. This is the worst football of his career. Still fruitlessly working to perfect the sidearm fadeaway, Stafford is the No. 22 fantasy quarterback and has four touchdowns through five games. The Bears lead the NFL in interceptions, and no defense is allowing a lower quarterback rating to opposing passers. Chicago is also fifth in the league in sacks. And 28th in passing scores allowed. This is a really difficult matchup for Stafford. I'd bet on Cutler outscoring him in this game. ... You know the drill with Nate Burleson and Brandon Pettigrew by now. They both lack playmaking ability and are volume-dependent pass catchers whose fantasy value is wholly reliant on a pass-first attack. Burleson and Pettigrew are fantasy garbage to me, but I suppose one man's trash can be another man's treasure.
Mikel Leshoure didn't clear 100 total yards or find the end zone in his first game back from the Lions' Week 5 bye, but his on-field play was promising. Leshoure continues to be used regularly in the pass game, and appeared to have more juice in his legs after the open date. Leshoure clearly isn't going to be the 30-touch back he was in his NFL debut a month ago at Tennessee, but he's settling in as a viable low-end RB2 who should see no fewer than 17 touches a game. Even against the Bears' top-ranked run defense, Leshoure is a quality fantasy start during the bye-week blues. ... Averaging eight touches over the Lions' past four games, Joique Bell is a pedestrian change-of-pace back with some receiving skills. He's depth in fantasy leagues. ... The light isn't flipping on for Titus Young, who might be the most disappointing young receiver in the NFL to date. Trying to play through a knee injury, Young has drops in back-to-back games and has caught just one pass of longer than 17 yards on the season; a fluke 46-yard Hail Mary in the aforementioned Titans game. Chicago's defense is designed to eliminate deep threats like Young. ... Tony Scheffler has exceeded 30 yards in 1-of-5 games and isn't on the fantasy radar.
Score Prediction: Bears 24, Lions 17