Chet Gresham

Targets and Touches

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Week 10 Target Watch: NFC

Wednesday, November 07, 2012


Welcome to the NFC version of Target Watch for Week 10. Below you will find the number of times a quarterback has chucked a ball at a player on his team.

 

But before that, let’s take a look at what teams are doing once they get into the red zone, passing or running?  

 

 Red Zone Pass/Run Plays


TEAMPass%Run %CMPATTPTDINTRSHRSHTDTotal Plays
NO 71.23% 28.77% 31 52 17 0 21 3 73
GB 66.67% 33.33% 31 46 16 0 23 2 69
JAX 65.96% 34.04% 16 31 6 0 16 1 47
ARI 62.86% 37.14% 20 44 7 1 26 4 70
CLE 62.79% 37.21% 13 27 3 2 16 4 43
STL 62.75% 37.25% 14 32 4 3 19 2 51
IND 62.12% 37.88% 19 41 7 2 25 5 66
OAK 60.76% 39.24% 23 48 9 0 31 2 79
TEN 60.00% 40.00% 17 33 6 0 22 4 55
DAL 59.38% 40.63% 20 38 6 2 26 3 64
DET 59.09% 40.91% 24 52 8 3 36 10 88
MIN 57.14% 42.86% 29 48 10 2 36 6 84
PHI 55.26% 44.74% 18 42 7 2 34 3 76
PIT 53.93% 46.07% 27 48 11 0 41 5 89
ATL 53.16% 46.84% 29 42 14 2 37 5 79
MIA 52.63% 47.37% 14 30 3 0 27 9 57
BAL 51.92% 48.08% 13 27 7 1 25 9 52
DEN 51.81% 48.19% 28 43 15 1 40 5 83
BUF 51.06% 48.94% 16 24 8 1 23 4 47
TB 50.65% 49.35% 22 39 12 1 38 5 77
CIN 49.25% 50.75% 17 33 8 0 34 5 67
SD 48.75% 51.25% 25 39 11 1 41 4 80
CAR 46.97% 53.03% 13 31 4 2 35 8 66
SEA 46.75% 53.25% 20 36 8 0 41 3 77
CHI 46.27% 53.73% 17 31 6 0 36 6 67
NE 44.35% 55.65% 31 51 12 1 64 12 115
NYG 42.06% 57.94% 18 45 7 1 62 10 107
NYJ 41.03% 58.97% 13 32 8 3 46 5 78
KC 36.73% 63.27% 10 18 3 1 31 3 49
WAS 35.44% 64.56% 16 28 4 0 51 10 79
HOU 28.75% 71.25% 9 23 6 1 57 12 80
SF 25.45% 74.55% 10 14 7 1 41 7 55

 

 

To start saving space I’ll be showing you the last 6 weeks of targets on each individual player. I’m also changing the parenthesized number from total targets to targets per game. That should help even that number out for players that have missed games because of injury or bye weeks.



Arizona Cardinals

 

Larry Fitzgerald: 15-15-12-7-11-12 (10.8), Andre Roberts: 9-10-6-9-11-7 (7.6), Early Doucet: 7-7-3-6-4-4 (4.3), Michael Floyd: 8-3-3-1-11-7 (4), Rob Housler: 3-6-3-7-5-9 (4), LaRod Stephens-Howling: dnp-dnp-2-5-4-4 (2.6), Jeff King: 2-1-4-0-3-1 (1.8), Todd Heap: dnp-dnp-0-dnp-dnp-dnp (4.3), Ryan Williams: 2-1-dnp-dnp-dnp-dnp (2), William Powell: 2-4-1-1-0-0 (1.3), Anthony Sherman: 0-2-0-dnp-2-1 (0.9)

 

It’s a weekly struggle, but Larry Fitzgerald continues to get his targets, including plenty of red zone looks.  The production though, continues to be inconsistent. He’s currently 24th overall for receivers in fantasy points per game and just behind his teammate Andre Roberts. And this comes on the heels of a six catch, 74-yard day with a touchdown. He’s a #2 wide receiver living in an elite receiver’s body.

 

Andre Roberts on the other hand is exactly what he is, a #3 receiver with touchdown upside.  His 7.6 targets a game keeps him relevant each week.

 

 

Atlanta Falcons

 

Roddy White: 12-6-8-BYE-4-10 (8.4), Julio Jones: 8-15-8-BYE-5-6 (8.1), Tony Gonzalez: 5-14-7-BYE-5-5 (8), Jacquizz Rodgers: 4-2-4-BYE-5-5 (3.5), Harry Douglas: 2-5-7-BYE-dnp-2 (3.6), Michael Turner: 5-5-1-BYE-2-1 (2.1), Jason Snelling: 4-1-0-BYE-3-3 (1.6), Lousaka Polite: dnp-dnp-1-BYE-3-1 (0.8), Michael Palmer: dnp-dnp-dnp-BYE-0-1 (0.6), Tommy Gallarda: dnp-2-1-BYE-0-0 (0.8), Drew Davis: dnp-0-0-BYE-2-0 (0.5)

 

The Falcons passing game just keeps on rolling and even tough matchups aren’t slowing it down. That’s a good sign, especially with a decently easy schedule coming up. Roddy White and Julio Jones didn’t score last week, but both topped 100 yards in the same game for the first time this season. They’re hitting their stride now.

 

Michael Turner keeps proving people (me) wrong, but all in all his numbers are down from his 1,350 yards, 11.5 touchdown average over the last two seasons. His totals extrapolate out to 1,034 yards rushing and 8 touchdowns. He’s currently ranked 19th in fantasy points per game. Good, not great, but he does get the Saints twice the rest of the way. They ain’t so good at the defense.

 

Jacquizz Rodgers has been playing better of late and will continue to be in on passing downs. His usage is dependent on the flow of the game. But his five-target average over the last two games is good to see and as Turner wears down, we should continue seeing Rodgers used enough for a possible flex play.

 

 

Carolina Panthers

 

Steve Smith: 6-13-BYE-9-16-7 (8.8), Greg Olsen: 7-3-BYE-5-5-9 (6.6), Brandon LaFell: 3-3-BYE-8-4-dnp (5.1), Louis Murphy: 1-2-BYE-9-4-2 (3.2), Mike Tolbert: 3-1-BYE-1-1-1 (2.1), Jonathan Stewart: 1-4-BYE-4-6-1 (2.8), DeAngelo Williams: 2-2-BYE-0-0-0 (0.9), Kealoha Pilares: 1-0-BYE-0-0-1 (0.5), Gary Barnidge: 0-0-BYE-0-1-1 (0.2), Armanti Edwards: 1-0-BYE-0-dnp-1 (0.3), Ben Hartsock: 0-1-BYE-0-1-0 (0.3)

 

With Brandon LaFell out, Greg Olsen got a bump in targets last week. Unfortunately he didn’t really take advantage with some poor play. Steve Smith continues to get the majority of the work, for good reason, but is currently sitting 29th in fantasy points per game for receivers. That is due mostly to his having only one touchdown reception, which he got last week.  He’s still on target for 76 receptions and 1,260 yards receiving, so if the touchdowns start coming, his outlook is still great.

 

The running back situation went from hopeful to apocalyptic last week. The Jonathan Stewart as every down back experiment didn’t last. Last week he played 55 percent of the snaps to DeAngelo Williams’ 34 percent which was much closer than the previous two weeks where Stewart played 76 percent to Williams’ 13 percent. Unless we hear otherwise, we are now back into a running back quagmire.

 

 

Chicago Bears

 

Brandon Marshall: 8-17-BYE-10-14-10 (11.2), Earl Bennett: dnp-dnp-BYE-6-4-8 (5.3), Matt Forte: 1-4-BYE-5-5-2 (4), Devin Hester: 4-4-BYE-6-2-2 (2.9), Alshon Jeffery: 5-4-BYE-dnp-dnp-dnp (4.6), Kellen Davis: 4-4-BYE-2-1-0 (2.6), Michael Bush: 1-3-BYE-1-0-1 (1), Matt Spaeth: 0-0-BYE-1-2-0 (0.6), Kyle Adams: 0-1-BYE-1-0-0 (0.5), Dane Sanzenbacher: 1-2-BYE-0-dnp-dnp (1), Evan Rodriguez: dnp-dnp-BYE-dnp-dnp-1 (0.5)

 

With Alshon Jeffery hurt, Brandon Marshall has stepped up his game even more. Jay Cutler lets him fight for the ball and he’s winning more often than not. The targets will continue.

 

Cutler has been looking toward Earl Bennett more with Jeffery out, but with Matt Forte and the defense continuing to be effecting (in the case of the defense, extremely so), it’s going to be difficult for any receiver other than Marshall to have fantasy worth.

 

 

Dallas Cowboys

 

Jason Witten: 14-BYE-7-8-22-8 (9.8), Miles Austin: 6-BYE-5-9-16-9 (8.5), Dez Bryant: 13-BYE-15-3-11-4 (8.2), Kevin Ogletree: 5-BYE-4-6-3-4 (5.1), Felix Jones: 0-BYE-1-6-3-5 (3), DeMarco Murray: 7-BYE-1-dnp-dnp-dnp (3.6), John Phillips: 0-BYE-2-0-3-0 (1), Phillip Tanner: 3-BYE-0-1-1-0 (0.6), Cole Beasley: 2-BYE-dnp-dnp-0-2 (1), Lawrence Vickers: 0-BYE-1-1-0-1 (0.5), Lance Dunbar: dnp-BYE-0-0-0-2 (0.5)

 

Jason Witten’s 20 targets in week nine skew his numbers, so in reality, Miles Austin has been just as or more important to the Cowboys passing game over the last three weeks while Dez Bryant deals with nagging injuries. But if Bryant gets back on track health-wise, he’s also shown that he could be the main target.

 

Austin ranks 12th for wide receivers in fantasy points per game and has been steady, whereas Bryant ranks 32nd and has not been steady. I am a big proponent of superior skill and am happy to keep taking my lumps by keeping Bryant around, but I’d be cutting off my nose to spite my face to advocate Bryant over Austin going forward.

 

 

Detroit Lions

 

Calvin Johnson: 12-BYE-13-11-8-8 (10.4), Brandon Pettigrew: 9-BYE-7-6-9-3 (7.5), Titus Young: 3-BYE-5-8-9-5 (5.4), Nate Burleson: 8-BYE-9-3-dnp-dnp (7.2), Tony Scheffler: 3-BYE-5-3-8-3 (4.7), Joique Bell: 8-BYE-2-4-4-4 (3.8), Mike Thomas: 2-BYE-dnp-3-7-0 (3.4), Mikel Leshoure: 5-BYE-4-7-5-2 (4.5), Ryan Broyles: 1-BYE-0-4-5-6 (2.7), Kevin Smith: 0-BYE-dnp-dnp-1-1 (1.8), Will Heller: 0-BYE-0-0-0-1 (0.6),
Stefan Logan: 0-BYE-0-0-0-0 (0.2)

Matthew Stafford had one of his better games on the season, but didn’t throw for one touchdown pass. As a Stafford owner, I feel your pain. He has been scuffling all year and now that he looks to be back on track and facing a weak Jaguars defense, the Lions run for four touchdowns and pass for zilch. Thems the breaks I spose!

 

Calvin Johnson was a game time decision and still had seven receptions for 127 yards. You don’t sit him. After Megatron the passing game wasn’t needed, so the numbers spread out pretty thinly. It was good to see Ryan Broyles catch six-of-six targets and I really like him for PPR going forward. He may be hurting Brandon Pettigrew, but against better offensive teams there should be plenty of targets to go around.

 


continue story »
Chet Gresham writes Target Watch and The Morning After for Rotoworld.com and is the founder of The Fake Football. Chet can be found on Twitter .
Email :Chet Gresham



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