Chet Gresham

Targets and Touches

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Week 10 Target Watch: AFC

Thursday, November 08, 2012


Come one, come all, step right up to the American Football Conference Target Watch! Below here you will see target numbers and the names of those players whom those target numbers coincide with and presently and so forth. Click here for admission to Wednesday's NFC Target Watch. But before we get to that I wanted to give you a list from the other side of the ball, the defense.

 

You’ll find the target and reception numbers for each defense against each position. And since the Tennessee Titans are out to break the Indianapolis Colts’ record for horrible completion percentage allowed, they happen to be at the top (proverbial, and should be actual, bottom) of two of the three lists. The chances of completing a pass against the Titans are about as good as my chances of looking at a picture of a bulldog puppy on the Internet at some point today. So take a look-see and see just how good and/or bad each team is at allowing receptions.

 

 

Completion Percentage by Team and Position

 

 

Team vs WRRecTarCom %Team vs RBRecTarCom %Team vs TERecTarCom %
Tennessee Titans 117 175 67% New Orleans Saints 43 50 86% Tennessee Titans 62 81 77%
Baltimore Ravens 109 168 65% Tennessee Titans 51 60 85% Cincinnati Bengals 42 57 74%
Detroit Lions 107 167 64% New England Patriots 49 58 84% Pittsburgh Steelers 35 48 73%
Buffalo Bills 101 158 64% Tampa Bay Buccaneers 47 56 84% New England Patriots 48 67 72%
Oakland Raiders 92 145 63% Carolina Panthers 57 69 83% Atlanta Falcons 40 57 70%
Cincinnati Bengals 89 141 63% Oakland Raiders 56 68 82% New York Giants 57 82 70%
Washington Redskins 129 205 63% St. Louis Rams 44 54 81% Kansas City Chiefs 25 36 69%
Indianapolis Colts 105 167 63% Cincinnati Bengals 48 60 80% Chicago Bears 50 72 69%
St. Louis Rams 103 164 63% Chicago Bears 40 51 78% Dallas Cowboys 34 49 69%
Minnesota Vikings 117 190 62% San Diego Chargers 51 66 77% Washington Redskins 58 84 69%
San Diego Chargers 99 161 61% Green Bay Packers 34 44 77% Minnesota Vikings 43 63 68%
New Orleans Saints 106 173 61% Atlanta Falcons 35 46 76% New York Jets 44 65 68%
New York Giants 102 167 61% Cleveland Browns 50 66 76% Miami Dolphins 43 65 66%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 126 207 61% Denver Broncos 40 53 75% San Francisco 49ers 34 52 65%
Carolina Panthers 90 148 61% Detroit Lions 36 48 75% San Diego Chargers 34 52 65%
Jacksonville Jaguars 100 165 61% Houston Texans 36 49 73% New Orleans Saints 35 54 65%
Cleveland Browns 125 210 60% Kansas City Chiefs 37 51 73% Oakland Raiders 40 62 65%
Dallas Cowboys 84 143 59% Seattle Seahawks 48 67 72% Tampa Bay Buccaneers 36 56 64%
San Francisco 49ers 104 181 57% Indianapolis Colts 29 41 71% Carolina Panthers 34 53 64%
Atlanta Falcons 90 157 57% Jacksonville Jaguars 41 58 71% St. Louis Rams 41 64 64%
New England Patriots 93 163 57% New York Giants 34 49 69% Seattle Seahawks 46 72 64%
Green Bay Packers 123 217 57% Arizona Cardinals 27 39 69% Denver Broncos 44 70 63%
Kansas City Chiefs 68 120 57% New York Jets 21 31 68% Detroit Lions 35 56 63%
Denver Broncos 93 166 56% Minnesota Vikings 42 63 67% Indianapolis Colts 22 36 61%
Miami Dolphins 127 230 55% Buffalo Bills 23 35 66% Baltimore Ravens 43 72 60%
Philadelphia Eagles 84 154 55% Pittsburgh Steelers 15 23 65% Jacksonville Jaguars 40 67 60%
Seattle Seahawks 98 181 54% Philadelphia Eagles 39 60 65% Philadelphia Eagles 39 66 59%
Arizona Cardinals 103 192 54% Washington Redskins 36 56 64% Buffalo Bills 42 72 58%
Houston Texans 91 173 53% Dallas Cowboys 23 36 64% Arizona Cardinals 24 43 56%
Chicago Bears 96 187 51% Miami Dolphins 34 57 60% Cleveland Browns 32 58 55%
Pittsburgh Steelers 88 174 51% Baltimore Ravens 25 42 60% Green Bay Packers 42 81 52%
New York Jets 78 155 50% San Francisco 49ers 17 32 53% Houston Texans 29 59 49%

 

 

To start saving space I’ll be showing you the last 6 weeks of targets on each individual player. I’m also changing the parenthesized number from total targets to targets per game played. That should help even that number out for players that have missed games because of injury or bye weeks.

 

 

Baltimore Ravens

 

Torrey Smith: 10-4-4-13-BYE-9 (7.2), Anquan Boldin: 12-10-6-7-BYE-5 (7), Dennis Pitta: 2-4-5-8-BYE-3 (6.6), Ray Rice: 11-3-4-5-BYE-2 (5.5), Jacoby Jones: 7-2-3-2-BYE-2 (3.1), Ed Dickson: 0-1-2-5-BYE-3 (2.5), Vonta Leach: 2-2-1-0-BYE-0 (1.5), Tandon Doss: 2-1-0-1-BYE-0 (0.6), Deonte Thompson: 0-0-dnp-dnp-BYE-dnp (0.4), Bernard Pierce: 0-0-1-0-BYE-0 (0.2)

 

Thankfully Torrey Smith is back in the target good graces. His ability coupled with normal #1 wide receiver targets would make him a top receiver. He is currently the 22nd ranked fantasy receiver even though he’s averaging just seven targets a game.

 

In the last five weeks Dennis Pitta has 121 total yards and no touchdowns. Last week he had only three targets, the same amount as Ed Dickson.  And for number nerds like me, he has 33 yards receiving in each of his last three games. Three!

 

Anquan Boldin always teases us with a few big games, but when you look at his overall production it hurts your eyeballs. Right now he is the 44th ranked receiver in fantasy. That is due mainly to his single touchdown on the season, which could be an anomaly, but he only has four targets in the red zone for the season. His upside is on the down side.

 

 

Buffalo Bills

 

Steve Johnson: 10-10-11-7-BYE-7 (8.9), Scott Chandler: 8-6-3-4-BYE-5 (5.1), Donald Jones: 3-4-4-5-BYE-9 (5.1), Fred Jackson: 3-1-6-11-BYE-7 (4.7), C.J. Spiller: 2-1-5-6-BYE-5 (3.4), T.J. Graham: 8-3-3-1-BYE-3 (3.4), Tashard Choice: 1-dnp-0-dnp-BYE-dnp (1.4), Brad Smith: 2-1-0-1-BYE-0 (0.7), Dorin Dickerson: 2-dnp-dnp-0-BYE-1 (0.6)

 

Fred Jackson is averaging 3.7 yards per carry this season on 59 attempts, while C.J. Spiller is averaging 7.2 yards per carry on 78 attempts. That stat is truly mind-boggling. Jackson isn’t as bad as that stat and Spiller isn’t as good (nobody is), but Spiller is the more dynamic player and the Bills must get him the ball more than they have.

 

Scott Chandler has gone the way of the touchdownless and isn’t worth owning, which was predictable. But with Stevie Johnson nursing a nagging injury we did see Donald Jones step up as the main target for Fitzpatrick. He doesn’t have much value on the rest of the season, but if Stevie is still hobbled against the Patriots, Jones should see a ton of targets.

 

 

Cincinnati Bengals

 

A.J. Green: 9-13-12-6-BYE-9 (10.4), Jermaine Gresham: 5-6-8-5-BYE-8 (6.5), Andrew Hawkins: 3-13-5-4-BYE-7 (6), Armon Binns: 5-6-5-dnp-BYE-0 (4.1), BenJarvus Green-Ellis: 3-2-1-1-BYE-3 (2), Brandon Tate: 0-1-1-1-BYE-6 (1.8), Brian Leonard: 1-2-1-dnp-BYE-4 (1.3), Cedric Peerman: 0-0-8-0-BYE-0 (1), Ryan Whalen: dnp-dnp-dnp-7-BYE-dnp (7), Mohamed Sanu: 0-0-dnp-3-BYE-3 (1.2), Orson Charles: 1-0-2-0-BYE-1 (0.6), Marvin Jones: 2-dnp-2-0-BYE-dnp (0.8), Chris Pressley: 2-0-0-0-BYE-0 (0.2)

 

This is old news, but A.J. Green is a bad man. He has eight touchdown receptions and has had the ball in the end zone in seven straight games. That consistency is fantasy gold. After him there is the opposite of consistency at the receiver position with no hope in sight. Be afraid.

 

Jermaine Gresham (no relation) hasn’t done much to write home about, but he still is sitting ninth in fantasy points scored per game for tight ends. It seems that every year we have a nice crop of tight ends to draft from, but very few actually break out. Gresham isn’t really worth all that much fantasy-wise, but is a top-10 tight end right now with his 6.4 points per game. If you don’t have an elite tight end it’s matchup central.

 

 

Cleveland Browns

 

Greg Little: 10-2-5-7-5-7 (5.7), Josh Gordon: 1-8-4-10-5-3 (4.9), Trent Richardson: 6-7-3-2-1-9 (4.8), Ben Watson: 6-3-5-3-4-3 (3.9), Jordan Cameron: 6-2-4-2-4-2 (3.1), Chris Ogbonnaya: 4-4-2-4-3-2 (3.5), Travis Benjamin: 5-dnp-dnp-5-0-3 (3.3), Mohamed Massaquoi: dnp-dnp-dnp-dnp-dnp-3 (5.2), Jordan Norwood: 10-9-dnp-dnp-dnp-dnp (9.5), Josh Cooper: dnp-dnp-3-8-1-dnp (4), Alex Smith: dnp-dnp-0-dnp-3-4 (2.4), Josh Cribbs: 2-0-1-0-1-0 (0.8)

 

Brandon Weeden has hit some doldrums after getting a nice tail wind in his sails for a few weeks. That of course has been bad news for Josh Gordon, who been hauling in touchdown passes right and left. But even when Gordon was getting into the end zone, he was averaging 2.5 receptions a game. You can’t expect to continue finding pay dirt with that number of receptions.

 

Trent Richardson has thankfully remained relevant, even with the poor play by the Browns as a whole. He’s topped 100 yards rushing in his last two games and scored a touchdown in one. He’s one of the few bell cow backs in the league.

 

 

Denver Broncos

 

Eric Decker: 9-8-9-BYE-6-11 (8.6), Demaryius Thomas: 6-11-2-BYE-9-8 (8.1), Jacob Tamme: 6-11-2-BYE-4-4 (5.8), Brandon Stokley: 2-3-4-BYE-2-4 (3.8), Joel Dreessen: 3-4-7-BYE-2-4 (3.6), Willis McGahee: 6-6-5-BYE-2-1 (3.1), Lance Ball: 2-0-0-BYE-0-1 (1), Matthew Willis: dnp-0-1-BYE-1-1 (0.9), Ronnie Hillman: 2-1-0-BYE-1-1 (1), Virgil Green: dnp-0-0-BYE-3-0 (0.8)

 

So Peyton Manning is good. We all thought he would help Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas put up good fantasy numbers, but these numbers are pretty darn good. Right now they are both tied for the sixth most fantasy points for wide receivers Having one top six fantasy receiver is tough enough for a quarterback to produce, but two? Oh and their running back, Willis McGahee, he’s eighth in running back fantasy points per game. I wonder if anyone is missing last year’s quarterback?

 

 

Houston Texans

 

Andre Johnson: 6-6-12-10-BYE-10 (7.8), Owen Daniels: 6-5-5-10-BYE-8 (7), Kevin Walter: 3-6-4-6-BYE-3 (4.2), Arian Foster: 2-4-3-5-BYE-1 (3.2), James Casey: 5-5-2-2-BYE-3 (3.2), Keshawn Martin: 3-0-6-2-BYE-0 (2.2), Garrett Graham: 1-0-5-2-BYE-2 (1.9), Ben Tate: 2-dnp-0-0-BYE-dnp (1.5), Lestar Jean: dnp-dnp-0-0-BYE-0 (0.5), Jonathan Grimes: dnp-0-dnp-1-BYE-0 (0.5)

 

I’m loving these Andre Johnson target numbers over the last three games. Unfortunately without touchdowns he’s not blowing up in standard leagues, but he is in PPR. In the first five games he averaged 3.4 receptions and in the last three he’s averaged 8.3. Oh, and he has a very nice schedule after a tough road game in Chicago. And that goes for Owen Daniels as well. They both are getting the lion’s share of the targets and there really aren’t any players good enough to take them away.

 


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Chet Gresham writes Target Watch and The Morning After for Rotoworld.com and is the founder of The Fake Football. Chet can be found on Twitter .
Email :Chet Gresham



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