Matchups: Dez'll Do It

Oakland @ Baltimore

I think we're going to see the Raiders air it out in Baltimore. I mean lots of passing. Darren McFadden and Mike Goodson are Oakland's only viable ball carriers, and they're both out with high ankle sprains. The best back left is versatile FB Marcel Reece, who can block, catch and make plays afterwards, and perhaps run the ball on draws and short-yardage plays. No coaching staff -- dating even back to Reece's college days at University of Washington -- has ever deemed him a sustainable run-play back. Reece had five rushing attempts in his college career. He had an NFL career-high 30 with Oakland in 2010, exceeding three carries in just one game that year. I'd be excited about Reece in PPR this week because I think his floor is five receptions and he could flirt with double digits. Pass plays generate more yards than runs anyway, and I don't think Reece will struggle to dominate snaps over Taiwan Jones. ... Although Jones is expected to take most of the tailback snaps on obvious running downs -- at least early in the game -- I think he'll prove a fantasy tease. Both head coach Dennis Allen and OC Greg Knapp indicated this week that they have little or no confidence in Jones in terms of ball security, pass protection, or simply being an assignment-sound player. I suppose you could do worse than a guy with great long speed in a flex spot, but I wouldn't be surprised if Jones finished Sunday with single-digit carries. He's a boom-or-bust play.

There are no guarantees for a pass-heavy Raiders game plan, of course, but Carson Palmer should be on QB1 streamers' radar regardless. A recommended start in this space last week, Palmer delivered season bests in yards (414) and touchdowns (4) and continues to spray the ball with ample arm strength and accuracy. Although Baltimore's pass defense has played better than its No. 22 ranking suggests, it struggles to defend perimeter receivers, and that will be Oakland's offensive strength on Sunday. ... Shake off Denarius Moore's relatively slow Week 9 box score (4-66) and start him against the Ravens. Without DMC, there's every reason to believe Moore will be the Raiders' featured Week 10 skill player. ... Darrius Heyward-Bey is a top-25 fantasy receiver the past three weeks, but still a low-end WR3 option at Baltimore. He's averaging just 4.5 targets a game in the last month, and 5.3 during the three-week "hot" streak. ... Palmer's target distribution since Oakland's Week 5 bye: Moore 34, Brandon Myers 33, Rod Streater 22, McFadden 20, Heyward-Bey 18, Reece 16, Derek Hagan 9. ... I wrote last week that Myers was the Raiders' "No. 3 pass option." I wrote that in err. Myers is ahead of Heyward-Bey, and a quality TE1 play in Week 10 against a Baltimore defense that has allowed the sixth most yards in the league to tight ends.

Baltimore returned from its Week 8 bye playing run-dominated offense. They executed a 37:24 run-to-pass ratio in a 25-15 win at Cleveland, and early indications are that the Ravens scrapped their first-half pass-happy approach during the open date, hitching their wagon to Ray Rice. Fresh off Doug Martin's mammoth Week 9 game, the Raiders dipped from 11th to 21st in run defense ranking, and there is every reason to believe Rice will gash this group. ... Bernard Pierce ran seven times for 26 yards and a touchdown against the Browns, operating as a change-of-pace back. Pierce is a nice handcuff, but he's not a fantasy option even in the finest of matchups. ... Matchups don't matter for Dennis Pitta, either. Averaging 24 yards over his past five games without a touchdown, Pitta can hit waiver wires in re-draft leagues. Because the Ravens appear to be installing a run-first approach, Pitta will play fewer snaps than in-line TE Ed Dickson moving forward. ... 43rd in fantasy receiver scoring to this point, Anquan Boldin has settled in as a WR4. His 1,020-yard pace is already slowing down, and he's reached pay dirt just once on the year.

If the offensive philosophy in Baltimore continues to be as run oriented as it was at Cleveland, Joe Flacco will essentially have no prayer of QB1 value. The Raiders get back top CB Ronald Bartell from I.R./designated for return this week, and Flacco might not hit 25 pass attempts if Rice even has half the game Martin did against the Raiders. ... Beyond Rice, one Baltimore skill-position player capable of salvaging some value in spite of the decreased passing volume is Torrey Smith. A run-driven offense can make the play-action game lethal, and Smith is the Ravens' best deep threat. While Smith seems destined for stretch-run inconsistency, he's got some big games forthcoming. This could easily be one. Oakland has been susceptible to deep bombs all year long.

Score Prediction: Ravens 23, Raiders 20

Tennessee @ Miami

Tennessee's run defense has been below average this season, and it's hit rock bottom the past three weeks. Shredded by the Colts, Bears, and Bills for a combined 502 yards and two TDs on 94 rushing attempts (5.34 YPC), the Titans present an inviting matchup for Miami's Reggie Bush-Daniel Thomas timeshare. Bush couldn't get much going between the tackles in last week's loss to Indianapolis, but proved his health by making four Colts miss on his 18-yard touchdown run in the second quarter. While the rotation keeps Bush from RB1 or even high-end RB2 value, he's in the top-15 fantasy back range in Week 10 because of the opponent. ... Thomas is a replacement-level talent, but he ran with purpose on eight touches at Indy, getting downhill en route to 62 total yards. He's on the flex-play radar. ... Thomas has played more snaps than Bush in each of the Dolphins' last two games, suggesting the time split isn't going away. 4-4 Miami fancies itself as a playoff contender -- because it is -- and the coaches want Bush upright for the stretch run. ... Tennessee has given up a boatload of fantasy points to tight ends, but it doesn't matter much for Anthony Fasano when he doesn't get the ball. Fasano has started all eight games this year, and hasn't cleared 50 receiving yards. He has two catches on six targets over the past two weeks.

I've seen some QB1-streamer hype on Ryan Tannehill this week. It's not the worst idea, but I'd prefer someone like Philip Rivers or Eli Manning, and definitely Josh Freeman or Tony Romo. At home facing a team with a quarterback returning from a five-week injury, I think the Dolphins will control this game with their rushing attack and defense. Tannehill has a bright future, but he's not on the re-draft radar yet. Lacking playmaking receivers, Tannehill has four touchdowns in his last six games. ... Miami should be able to move the ball through the air when it needs to, though. The Titans rank 27th against the pass and have allowed the most passing touchdowns in the NFL. I watched Dolphins-Colts on Tuesday and came away encouraged by Brian Hartline's usage. The Fins made an increased effort to get him the ball on screens, comebacks, and sideline shots, and Hartline came away with an 8/107 line on a team-high 12 targets. Hartline looks like a strong WR3 in Week 10. ... Davone Bess doesn't score touchdowns, so he's off the radar in standard fantasy leagues. He also requires pretty heavy volume to prove a worthwhile PPR start. On pace for 966 scoreless yards at the halfway point, Bess is best left on fantasy benches.

Chris Johnson's 80-yard touchdown run came in garbage time at Chicago, but I found it promising that his head was still in a blowout loss enough to make a big play like that. You've heard a lot of excuses for Johnson's 2011 and early-season 2012 struggles -- the offensive line, playcalling, a holdout, eroding ability -- but I'm convinced that it's always been about effort. Johnson has run with consistent effort in four consecutive games, over that span racking up 526 yards and three touchdowns on 74 carries (7.11 YPC). He's totaled 100-plus yards in each of his last three games against top-ten run defenses. I never thought I would've said this early in the year, but Johnson is a must-start against the Dolphins. He's hitting homeruns again, and you can't bench the homerun potential. ... Jared Cook reached a new low against the Bears, dropping a pass, getting thrown for a loss of three on one of his two receptions, and generating six yards on five targets. Cook isn't playing well or enough to be more than a desperation fantasy option. ... Locker has appeared in parts of four games this season, playing extensively in three. His target distribution on the year: Kendall Wright 24, Cook 15, Damian Williams 14, Kenny Britt and Nate Washington 13, Johnson 10.

Locker has completed 67-of-104 passes (64.4 percent) for 781 yards (7.51 YPA), and a 4:2 TD-to-INT ratio in his three games of extensive playing time. He's rushed eight times for 67 yards. That's good production, but Locker has also been incredibly streaky and is a rhythm player, so how he'll fare after five missed weeks is thoroughly unpredictable. I don't think it should surprise anyone if he's bad against a good Dolphins defense. Locker still offers high-upside QB2 appeal for the stretch run with a big arm, explosive supporting cast, and plus-yardage scrambling ability. ... While nice to see in Wright's case, bear in mind Locker's aforementioned target stats are not necessarily predictive. Britt missed a game and got injured in another. He had 11 targets in the third. Williams and Cook's roles have reduced since Locker last played. Wright still looks like the safest fantasy play in Tennessee's pass-catching corps against the Fins. Miami can really bring pressure, but ultimately ranks 30th in pass defense and got lit up by Andrew Luck last week. ... Britt still stands to be the primary beneficiary of noodle-armed Matt Hasselbeck's demotion for power-armed Locker. The Titans may go conservative in Locker's first game back, but they have run much more of a vertical-oriented attack in his games under center. They dinked and dunked with Hasselbeck. Britt offers more upside than any Tennessee receiver in Week 10 and beyond.

Score Prediction: Dolphins 24, Titans 17

Atlanta @ New Orleans

Falcons-Saints unsurprisingly has the highest over-under of Week 10 at 53.5 points. Fire up all of your guys in this one. ... After an uncharacteristically inaccurate Week 8 game in Denver, Drew Brees returned to the bright lights of the Superdome on Monday Night Football, and re-found his stroke against the Eagles. Brees was lights out for all four quarters, completing a season-best 77.8 percent of his attempts and racking up big throw after big throw. In a near-certain shootout, Brees figures to have his way with Atlanta's No. 14 pass defense in Week 10. ... At full strength again, Jimmy Graham got open with ease against overmatched Eagles S David Sims and looks like a strong candidate to lead all tight ends in fantasy scoring the rest of the way. Graham has a touchdown in each of his last three Falcons meetings, and will be harder to contain with WLB Sean Weatherspoon (ankle) missing another game. Weatherspoon is a key component of Atlanta's coverage schemes at Mike linebacker in the nickel. ... Marques Colston posted stat lines of 7-81-1 and 8-113 in the Saints' two 2011 meetings with the Falcons. Because of where he lines up on the field, Colston projects to square off with Atlanta's two weaker corners in this game: RCB Dunta Robinson and slot CB Robert McClain. The No. 9 overall fantasy wideout, Colston is a locked-and-loaded WR1.

With Graham back healthy, Lance Moore has managed just eight targets the past two weeks, securing five for 86 scoreless yards. Moore played a season-low 24-of-57 snaps (42.1 percent) against Philadelphia and is not a recommended Week 10 fantasy play. ... Devery Henderson will spend most of this game in Falcons top CB Asante Samuel's coverage. Avoid Henderson. ... In the Week 9 absence of Darren Sproles (hand), the Saints employed a three-back timeshare. Pierre Thomas (21 snaps), Mark Ingram (18), and Chris Ivory (13) rotated throughout the game. Thomas' snap rate was head-scratchingly his lowest since Week 1. I wonder if it would have been different had the Eagles posed any real competitive threat, forcing the Saints into more passing situations. The Falcons will definitely do that. … Sproles did not practice this week and was ruled out on Friday. … In a possible pass-happy shootout game, Thomas is still going to be fantasy owners’ best bet in the New Orleans backfield. Ivory and Ingram are low-end flex options. Thomas is a high-upside flex; I think he'll be much more productive in this game than he was against the Eagles.

The No. 5 fantasy quarterback through nine weeks, Matt Ryan figures to pour yards and points on New Orleans' No. 29 pass defense. The Saints' seven sacks of Michael Vick in Week 9 were a mirage; this is not a team that rushes the passer well. From a clean pocket, Ryan is capable of shredding any defense. ... Saints DC Steve Spagnuolo has mixed and matched Jabari Greer and Patrick Robinson between left and right corner recently, based on game-by-game matchups. Struggling Robinson was assigned to DeSean Jackson last Monday night. Jackson promptly went off for 100 yards and a touchdown. Greer has easily been New Orleans' top cover man and held Jeremy Maclin to 28 scoreless yards on two catches. While Julio Jones and Roddy White are both legit WR1s in this likely high-scoring affair, I think the best bet is that Greer will cover Jones on the majority of snaps, and the Saints will put Robinson on White. If I were a bettor, my money would be on White leading the Falcons in Week 10 receiving stats. ... Tony Gonzalez has come back to Earth after a white-hot start to the season. It was inevitable. Gonzo is 36 years old and the Falcons' offensive playcalling is geared toward getting Jones and White the football. You still start Gonzalez against the Saints. He's the No. 4 overall tight end scorer, and there should be enough points recorded by Atlanta to support three productive fantasy efforts in the pass-catching corps.

It seems sensible to look for sleepers in a game like this. Just don't waste your time with Falcons slot receiver Harry Douglas. Douglas, coming off a catch-less effort against Dallas, has seen over five targets in just 1-of-7 games. He's been targeted three times or fewer on four occasions. The Falcons don't try to get Douglas the ball, and you shouldn't bet that they suddenly will. ... A pass-happy affair could cut down on Michael Turner's field time and carries against the Saints, but he's a good bet for a goal-line score regardless. It certainly can't hurt Turner's chances that New Orleans ranks dead last against the run and is surrendering 5.31 yards per tote to enemy ball carriers. The matchup, on paper, is ripe for the picking. ... Because there is so much potential for Falcons-Saints to turn into a pass-happy shootout, and Jacquizz Rodgers is Atlanta's passing-down back, it should surprise no one if he plays more snaps than Turner in this game. He's done it on and off all year. Whether Rodgers will get the ball enough to prove a worthwhile fantasy spot start is up in the air. He's received single-digit touches in three of his last four games. Still, you could do much worse than Rodgers for a dice-roll flex play, especially in PPR. This is a game that plays to Rodgers' strengths as a versatile running back who can make defenders miss in space.

Score Prediction: Saints 35, Falcons 30

1:00PM ET Games

NY Giants @ Cincinnati

Mired in a midseason skid, Eli Manning's accuracy has been an issue in each of his past three games, even if the Giants have managed to win two of them. Fantasy owners haven't been quite as fortunate, as Manning has posted a 1:4 TD-to-INT ratio during the cold streak and failed to clear 200 yards in each of the past two. Cincinnati's slow-footed secondary makes for a sensible opponent against which Eli can re-find his stroke. The Bengals rank 19th against the pass, have permitted a 12:5 TD-to-INT ratio, and only four NFL defenses are yielding a higher passer rating. Each of Eli's last two opponents (Dallas, Pittsburgh) rank top-five in pass defense, so hindsight tells us back-to-back slow games shouldn't have surprised. Manning may not be a locked-in QB1 at Cincinnati, but he's a high-end QB2, at the least, and squarely on the radar for quarterback matchup streamers. ... Hakeem Nicks is experiencing swelling in his troublesome knee again, and Martellus Bennett has been quiet. Look for Victor Cruz to step up as the Giants' clear No. 1 pass catcher in Week 10. Cruz plays the vast majority of his snaps at Z and slot receiver, so he'll avoid Bengals top CB Leon Hall for almost all of this game. Squaring off with 34-year-old LCB Terence Newman and 33-year-old slot CB Nate Clements, Cruz might have the best on-paper matchup of any fantasy receiver in Week 10. Despite a two-game scoring lull, Cruz is a top-five wideout play.

Sunday Update: ESPN's Bob Holtzman reported Sunday morning that the Bengals will use Hall to shadow Cruz one-on-one in this game. It is an unusual strategy for the Bengals because they have never used Hall to mirror opposing No. 1 receivers, instead simply leaving him on the right side every snap. Either way, you play Cruz with confidence as a WR1. The strategy also works to improve Nicks' matchup. Nicks will now deal with 34-year-old Newman, who is Cincinnati's lesser cover corner.

Continuing to battle knee flareups, Nicks vows to play Sunday. Although he's capable of a blowup game at any time, it's becoming increasingly difficult to trust Nicks when he's cleared 55 yards in one game this season and ranks 64th in fantasy receiver scoring over the past three weeks. The matchup with Hall also won't be easy. Downgrade Nicks to a WR3 until he puts something in a box score. ... On Adam Caplan's Week 10 preview podcast, NFL Films' Greg Cosell suggested that increasing Bennett's involvement might be a good way for the G-Men to attack Cincy in this game. "Against this defense in particular, against those linebackers and safeties, Bennett is an attractive option," Cosell said. “... I think this Bengals defense is a good defense (against which) to utilize the tight end." ... Andre Brown has scored a goal-line touchdown in three straight games. Ahmad Bradshaw has 16 red-zone carries compared to Brown's five over that span, so it isn't as if Bradshaw has been stripped of his role in scoring position. In Brown's case, the goal-line success is going to be incredibly difficult to sustain and count on in fantasy leagues. And Brown will hurt you if he doesn't find pay dirt for a fourth week. Brown has 16 combined touches for 75 yards over the three-game stretch. ... Although his yards-per-carry average continues to slip on a weekly basis, Bradshaw remains the Giants' clear-cut primary back, well ahead of Brown and rookie David Wilson. Bradshaw is a mid-range to low-end RB2 option against Cincinnati's No. 17 run defense.

Friday Update: Top Bengals safety Reggie Nelson won't play against the Giants due to a hamstring injury. Behind Hall, Nelson is Cincinnati's best defensive back. While there are reports of a "tired arm" for Eli, he's capable of snapping out of it at any moment. And this continues to be a highly favorable matchup.

After a hot start to the year, Andy Dalton has taken a step back. He has eight turnovers over his last four games, struggling to move the offense aside from garbage time. "It's been a continuing problem that Dalton has broken down a bit in the pocket," Cosell opined, based on tape study. "He has not played with the same precision. ... He's gotta work his way through this." Breaking down in the pocket would be problematic against a Giants defense that ranks third in sacks and is tied with Chicago for the NFL lead in interceptions. Dalton should be able to throw for enough yards against a poor New York secondary to support a strong fantasy game or two from his pass catchers, but he remains an entrenched QB2 and weak streamer option. ... The Giants continue to use Corey Webster in shadow coverage of top receivers, and he got beat last week for a 51-yard touchdown by Mike Wallace. This week's matchup with A.J. Green will be Webster's toughest all year. Fresh off a 7/99/1 pummeling of Champ Bailey -- who is way better than Webster -- Green is the league's best fantasy wideout play this week. ... The Bengals seem intent on making Jermaine Gresham their No. 2 pass option. They've given up on Armon Binns (benched, six snaps in Week 9), and still don't fancy Andrew Hawkins as an every-down player. This is a very nice matchup for Gresham. The Giants have surrendered the second most receptions and yards to tight ends, and won't have SS Kenny Phillips (knee) on Sunday. Gresham is a rock-solid TE1 play in Week 10.

The Giants have quietly had major run defense issues all year. They were exposed loudly in last week's loss to Pittsburgh -- by plodder Isaac Redman. Although he's rarely a recommended fantasy start in this space, fellow plodder BenJarvus Green-Ellis has a favorable Week 10 matchup. Trot him out as a flex against the G-Men and trade him as fast as you can if he has a big game. ... Binns was benched for Brandon Tate in Week 9. Tate secured 1-of-6 targets for 17 yards. If the Bengals are going to continue to stereotype Hawkins as a slot-guy only who can't function on early downs, their second receiver problem will last all year long. ... Coming off a Week 8 bye, Pro Football Focus charted Hawkins with a season-high 58-of-77 snaps (75.3 percent) versus Denver, although he still played less than Tate and the Bengals used more three-receiver, passing-down formations than usual due to the Broncos' 17-3, early third-quarter lead. With Giants rookie CB Jayron Hosley struggling mightily at slot corner, this game would be a great opportunity for the Bengals to exploit their one-on-one slot matchup. Will they do so? Your guess is as good as mine.

Score Prediction: Giants 27, Bengals 17

San Diego @ Tampa Bay

It may be too early to declare Philip Rivers all the way "back," but his Week 9 effort against the Chiefs was a step forward. It's also a reminder that Rivers has generally played well whenever LT Jared Gaither has been healthy enough to guard his blindside. In Gaither's four starts, Rivers has completed 81-of-119 throws (68.1 percent) for 937 yards (7.87 YPA), and a 6:3 TD-to-INT ratio. Rivers' numbers in four games without Gaither are 94-of-144 for 929 yards (6.45 YPA), six touchdowns, and seven picks. Gaither is expected to start his fifth game of the season at Tampa Bay, re-launching Rivers onto the low-end QB1 radar. The Bucs rank 32nd in pass defense. ... Robert Meachem and Eddie Royal have been free-agent busts. Danario Alexander and Seyi Ajirotutu were signed off the street midseason, and genuinely played better against K.C. than Royal and Meachem have all year. Alexander was particularly rock solid opposite Malcom Floyd, securing 3-of-3 targets for 61 yards. Coach Norv Turner this week vowed to involve Alexander more going forward. "Danario's going to play," Turner promised. "He's going to be a big part of what we do. It gives us another guy, and we can roll them and keep them fresh and use all the guys we have."

Friday Update: Gaither missed practice on Friday and is now considered unlikely to play in Week 10. As the statistics with him and without him in the lineup indicate, Gaither's absence would be cause for concern for Rivers and the rest of San Diego's offense. Keep an eye on this situation if you're looking to start Chargers skill-position players in your fantasy league. Downgrade them if Gaither is declared inactive Sunday morning.

While Tampa's defense presents a favorable matchup, San Diego's emerging receiver committee behind Floyd makes Alexander, Meachem, and Royal unattractive fantasy options. Alexander is probably the best bet, but there are no guarantees on his targets or playing time. He does qualify as a Week 10 spot-start sleeper with upside. ... On pace for 1,018 yards, Floyd will be the Chargers' lone every-down wideout from here on out and is a strong WR3. ... Antonio Gates has fallen well short of 2012 expectations, but he has 11 catches for 138 yards and three TDs over his past three games. The Bucs permit the ninth most fantasy points to tight ends, and Gates' 32-year-old legs are fresh after a ten-day layoff between games. ... Ryan Mathews is averaging 98 total yards per game since rejoining the starting lineup in Week 4. He isn't scoring touchdowns, but San Diego hasn't scored rushing TDs as a team. The Bolts are tied for 27th in the NFL with four running scores at the halfway point, and that stat is likely to progress toward the mean over the final eight games. The Bucs obviously present a difficult Week 10 matchup. They rank No. 1 in run defense and allow the lowest yards-per-carry average (3.43) in football. Unless I'm filthy rich at running back, I'd still be hard pressed to bench a guy handling the ball over 21 times a game over the past month and averaging 4.43 YPC in an offense bound for second-half improvement.

Carl Nicks, who? The Bucs' run blocking wasn't a problem whatsoever in last week's win over the Raiders. Oakland entered the game playing red-hot run defense, having skyrocketed to No. 11 in the NFL rankings and permitting just 3.88 yards per carry. Doug Martin and his Nicks-less, Davin Joseph-less offensive line reeled back and socked the Raiders in the mouth. Per ESPN Stats & Information, 197 of Martin's 251 yards (78.5 percent) were gained before contact, which confirms the rookie running back had running lanes. ... That's not to take away from Martin's independent running ability, though. He made defenders whiff before they had time to engage, and ripped off three highlight-reel long touchdown runs. The light flipped on for the entire Bucs offense during their Week 5 bye. They're averaging 38 points in four games since, and Martin is keying the group with 547 yards and seven all-purpose TDs on 83 carries (6.59 YPC) over that span. Matchups don't matter for RB1s, and Martin has officially graduated to RB1 status. ... While Martin's outlook heads north, LeGarrette Blount's continues to trend due south. On the second of his two Week 9 carries, Blount botched his exchange with Josh Freeman, losing a fumble. Blount didn't play a single snap the rest of the way. We may not see Blount in a game again this year.

"He's got the big ball going," ESPN's Trent Dilfer observed of Freeman on this week's Monday Night Countdown. "This team pushes it down the football field. Freeman's downfield accuracy has been phenomenal all year long and is producing points. They're a run-driven offense that sets up isolation plays outside, and Freeman is throwing the ball decisively, locating it well, and his receivers are making plays." With the ground attack clicking and play-action game following suit, Freeman is working on a month-long average of 315 yards with a combined 11:1 TD-to-INT ratio. Tied for 28th in sacks and permitting the eighth most passing touchdowns in football, San Diego presents an unimposing Week 10 passing-game matchup. Start Freeman as a QB1 until he slows down. ... Leading the NFL in yards-per-catch average (22.9) and on pace for career highs in yards (1,420) and touchdowns (14), Jackson should get the better of RCB Antoine Cason on Sunday. Pro Football Focus grades Cason 94th out of 103 qualifying cornerbacks this season. V-Jax also happens to have a bone to pick with the Chargers. He's a WR1 in Week 10. ... Mike Williams will have a tougher time with LCB Quentin Jammer, who is covering well and matches up favorably with Tampa's No. 2 receiver in terms of size and skill set. Williams is more of a WR3 this week.

Score Prediction: Bucs 27, Chargers 24

Detroit @ Minnesota

Scoring three times inside the ten-yard line won't happen every week, but there are reasons to believe Mikel Leshoure can remain a high-scoring stretch-run RB2. A quick-footed, angry runner who stays north-south, Leshoure's physicality consistently shows up on tape and he plays in an offense that forces defenses to keep eight out of the box. Leshoure leaves some yards on the field because his vision is lacking and he runs to contact rather than away from it, but he offers matchup-proof potential in an offense catching fire. And Minnesota's run defense is collapsing. "Their front seven, which played very well early in the season, has not played particularly well in recent weeks," observed Cosell. "They're getting moved up front." Indeed. Over their last four games, the Vikings have served up 663 yards and six rushing touchdowns on 144 carries (4.60 YPC) to Arizona, Washington, Tampa Bay, and Seattle. Leshoure is running well and this is a good matchup. Lock him in. ... Joique Bell is an oft-used change-of-pace back in the offense, but his recent box scores are difficult to trust as a predictive measure because so much of his production has come in garbage time. I think it would be a stretch to start Bell, even as a flex, because if you do you are essentially banking on Detroit blowout out Minnesota. And even as poorly as the Vikings have played recently, there are certainly no guarantees that will happen.

Matthew Stafford played well for the second straight game in Week 9 at Jacksonville. Leshoure's three first-half rushing TDs sapped Stafford's fantasy points in that particular game, but as alluded to previously, that's not going to happen very often. What the box score won't tell you was that Stafford, Calvin Johnson, and Ryan Broyles were Detroit's primary means of ball movement all game. Start Stafford and Megatron in Week 10 against a Vikings defense that is still without top outside CB Chris Cook (broken arm) and surrendered three touchdowns to rookie Russell Wilson last week. ... Broyles is going to be a fun player to own moving forward, but he has the toughest matchup of any Detroit skill-position player. Broyles plays in the slot and Antoine Winfield is the Vikings' slot corner. ... In Week 9, Titus Young beat Jaguars CB Aaron Ross on an early fourth-quarter bomb try from 25 yards out, and dropped the would-be over-the-shoulder touchdown. Battling knee tendinitis and on-field inconsistency, Young will continue to be a boom-or-bust fantasy play. ... Megatron (knee, stinger) doesn't need practice. Playing 60-of-72 snaps, Johnson carved up Jags top CB Derek Cox for the majority of his 7/129 stat line last week and is the best receiver bet for the season's final eight games. ... The Vikings have been generous enough to tight ends this year that Brandon Pettigrew is on the back-end TE1 radar in Week 10. Minnesota has allowed the 12th most fantasy points in the league to tight ends. Pettigrew offers scant upside, but he's always a solid bet for 5-6 catches.

Christian Ponder continued his three-week cliff drop in Week 9, reaching a new low in yards per pass attempt (2.9) and generating a pathetic 63 yards on 22 throws. Ponder is playing like the worst quarterback in the NFL right now. "Ponder has not been a comfortable player," Cosell said. "I think that he's not seeing things very clearly, at all. He's playing a little too fast. He's quick to react when he sees opposing color. And right now, they can't throw the football." The Lions don't play stout pass defense, but Minnesota has fast become an offense to avoid, aside from Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin, when healthy. ... Harvin (ankle) will be a game-time decision. He's the toughest pound-for-pound player in the league, and you've got to start him if he's active. Harvin’s chances didn’t look good midweek, but we’ll find out Sunday morning. ... Until Ponder picks it up, there is little room for optimism on Kyle Rudolph. Even if Harvin sits out, the Vikings could just as soon turn to Michael Jenkins, Devin Aromashodu, or Jerome Simpson, spreading the "wealth" in a low-volume pass attack. Look for Minnesota to lean heavily on Peterson's running in Week 10, and avoid the Vikings' passing offense entirely unless Harvin plays.

Sunday Update: ESPN's Adam Schefter reported Harvin will not play against the Lions. The Vikings had better hope Peterson delivers a monster game. If Ponder plays anything like he has the past three games, Minnesota will not move the ball through the air, even against a banged-up Detroit pass defense.

Score Prediction: Lions 27, Vikings 14

Oakland @ Baltimore

I think we're going to see the Raiders air it out in Baltimore. I mean lots of passing. Darren McFadden and Mike Goodson are Oakland's only viable ball carriers, and they're both out with high ankle sprains. The best back left is versatile FB Marcel Reece, who can block, catch and make plays afterwards, and perhaps run the ball on draws and short-yardage plays. No coaching staff -- dating even back to Reece's college days at University of Washington -- has ever deemed him a sustainable run-play back. Reece had five rushing attempts in his college career. He had an NFL career-high 30 with Oakland in 2010, exceeding three carries in just one game that year. I'd be excited about Reece in PPR this week because I think his floor is five receptions and he could flirt with double digits. Pass plays generate more yards than runs anyway, and I don't think Reece will struggle to dominate snaps over Taiwan Jones. ... Although Jones is expected to take most of the tailback snaps on obvious running downs -- at least early in the game -- I think he'll prove a fantasy tease. Both head coach Dennis Allen and OC Greg Knapp indicated this week that they have little or no confidence in Jones in terms of ball security, pass protection, or simply being an assignment-sound player. I suppose you could do worse than a guy with great long speed in a flex spot, but I wouldn't be surprised if Jones finished Sunday with single-digit carries. He's a boom-or-bust play.

There are no guarantees for a pass-heavy Raiders game plan, of course, but Carson Palmer should be on QB1 streamers' radar regardless. A recommended start in this space last week, Palmer delivered season bests in yards (414) and touchdowns (4) and continues to spray the ball with ample arm strength and accuracy. Although Baltimore's pass defense has played better than its No. 22 ranking suggests, it struggles to defend perimeter receivers, and that will be Oakland's offensive strength on Sunday. ... Shake off Denarius Moore's relatively slow Week 9 box score (4-66) and start him against the Ravens. Without DMC, there's every reason to believe Moore will be the Raiders' featured Week 10 skill player. ... Darrius Heyward-Bey is a top-25 fantasy receiver the past three weeks, but still a low-end WR3 option at Baltimore. He's averaging just 4.5 targets a game in the last month, and 5.3 during the three-week "hot" streak. ... Palmer's target distribution since Oakland's Week 5 bye: Moore 34, Brandon Myers 33, Rod Streater 22, McFadden 20, Heyward-Bey 18, Reece 16, Derek Hagan 9. ... I wrote last week that Myers was the Raiders' "No. 3 pass option." I wrote that in err. Myers is ahead of Heyward-Bey, and a quality TE1 play in Week 10 against a Baltimore defense that has allowed the sixth most yards in the league to tight ends.

Baltimore returned from its Week 8 bye playing run-dominated offense. They executed a 37:24 run-to-pass ratio in a 25-15 win at Cleveland, and early indications are that the Ravens scrapped their first-half pass-happy approach during the open date, hitching their wagon to Ray Rice. Fresh off Doug Martin's mammoth Week 9 game, the Raiders dipped from 11th to 21st in run defense ranking, and there is every reason to believe Rice will gash this group. ... Bernard Pierce ran seven times for 26 yards and a touchdown against the Browns, operating as a change-of-pace back. Pierce is a nice handcuff, but he's not a fantasy option even in the finest of matchups. ... Matchups don't matter for Dennis Pitta, either. Averaging 24 yards over his past five games without a touchdown, Pitta can hit waiver wires in re-draft leagues. Because the Ravens appear to be installing a run-first approach, Pitta will play fewer snaps than in-line TE Ed Dickson moving forward. ... 43rd in fantasy receiver scoring to this point, Anquan Boldin has settled in as a WR4. His 1,020-yard pace is already slowing down, and he's reached pay dirt just once on the year.

If the offensive philosophy in Baltimore continues to be as run oriented as it was at Cleveland, Joe Flacco will essentially have no prayer of QB1 value. The Raiders get back top CB Ronald Bartell from I.R./designated for return this week, and Flacco might not hit 25 pass attempts if Rice even has half the game Martin did against the Raiders. ... Beyond Rice, one Baltimore skill-position player capable of salvaging some value in spite of the decreased passing volume is Torrey Smith. A run-driven offense can make the play-action game lethal, and Smith is the Ravens' best deep threat. While Smith seems destined for stretch-run inconsistency, he's got some big games forthcoming. This could easily be one. Oakland has been susceptible to deep bombs all year long.

Score Prediction: Ravens 23, Raiders 20

Tennessee @ Miami

Tennessee's run defense has been below average this season, and it's hit rock bottom the past three weeks. Shredded by the Colts, Bears, and Bills for a combined 502 yards and two TDs on 94 rushing attempts (5.34 YPC), the Titans present an inviting matchup for Miami's Reggie Bush-Daniel Thomas timeshare. Bush couldn't get much going between the tackles in last week's loss to Indianapolis, but proved his health by making four Colts miss on his 18-yard touchdown run in the second quarter. While the rotation keeps Bush from RB1 or even high-end RB2 value, he's in the top-15 fantasy back range in Week 10 because of the opponent. ... Thomas is a replacement-level talent, but he ran with purpose on eight touches at Indy, getting downhill en route to 62 total yards. He's on the flex-play radar. ... Thomas has played more snaps than Bush in each of the Dolphins' last two games, suggesting the time split isn't going away. 4-4 Miami fancies itself as a playoff contender -- because it is -- and the coaches want Bush upright for the stretch run. ... Tennessee has given up a boatload of fantasy points to tight ends, but it doesn't matter much for Anthony Fasano when he doesn't get the ball. Fasano has started all eight games this year, and hasn't cleared 50 receiving yards. He has two catches on six targets over the past two weeks.

I've seen some QB1-streamer hype on Ryan Tannehill this week. It's not the worst idea, but I'd prefer someone like Philip Rivers or Eli Manning, and definitely Josh Freeman or Tony Romo. At home facing a team with a quarterback returning from a five-week injury, I think the Dolphins will control this game with their rushing attack and defense. Tannehill has a bright future, but he's not on the re-draft radar yet. Lacking playmaking receivers, Tannehill has four touchdowns in his last six games. ... Miami should be able to move the ball through the air when it needs to, though. The Titans rank 27th against the pass and have allowed the most passing touchdowns in the NFL. I watched Dolphins-Colts on Tuesday and came away encouraged by Brian Hartline's usage. The Fins made an increased effort to get him the ball on screens, comebacks, and sideline shots, and Hartline came away with an 8/107 line on a team-high 12 targets. Hartline looks like a strong WR3 in Week 10. ... Davone Bess doesn't score touchdowns, so he's off the radar in standard fantasy leagues. He also requires pretty heavy volume to prove a worthwhile PPR start. On pace for 966 scoreless yards at the halfway point, Bess is best left on fantasy benches.

Chris Johnson's 80-yard touchdown run came in garbage time at Chicago, but I found it promising that his head was still in a blowout loss enough to make a big play like that. You've heard a lot of excuses for Johnson's 2011 and early-season 2012 struggles -- the offensive line, playcalling, a holdout, eroding ability -- but I'm convinced that it's always been about effort. Johnson has run with consistent effort in four consecutive games, over that span racking up 526 yards and three touchdowns on 74 carries (7.11 YPC). He's totaled 100-plus yards in each of his last three games against top-ten run defenses. I never thought I would've said this early in the year, but Johnson is a must-start against the Dolphins. He's hitting homeruns again, and you can't bench the homerun potential. ... Jared Cook reached a new low against the Bears, dropping a pass, getting thrown for a loss of three on one of his two receptions, and generating six yards on five targets. Cook isn't playing well or enough to be more than a desperation fantasy option. ... Locker has appeared in parts of four games this season, playing extensively in three. His target distribution on the year: Kendall Wright 24, Cook 15, Damian Williams 14, Kenny Britt and Nate Washington 13, Johnson 10.

Locker has completed 67-of-104 passes (64.4 percent) for 781 yards (7.51 YPA), and a 4:2 TD-to-INT ratio in his three games of extensive playing time. He's rushed eight times for 67 yards. That's good production, but Locker has also been incredibly streaky and is a rhythm player, so how he'll fare after five missed weeks is thoroughly unpredictable. I don't think it should surprise anyone if he's bad against a good Dolphins defense. Locker still offers high-upside QB2 appeal for the stretch run with a big arm, explosive supporting cast, and plus-yardage scrambling ability. ... While nice to see in Wright's case, bear in mind Locker's aforementioned target stats are not necessarily predictive. Britt missed a game and got injured in another. He had 11 targets in the third. Williams and Cook's roles have reduced since Locker last played. Wright still looks like the safest fantasy play in Tennessee's pass-catching corps against the Fins. Miami can really bring pressure, but ultimately ranks 30th in pass defense and got lit up by Andrew Luck last week. ... Britt still stands to be the primary beneficiary of noodle-armed Matt Hasselbeck's demotion for power-armed Locker. The Titans may go conservative in Locker's first game back, but they have run much more of a vertical-oriented attack in his games under center. They dinked and dunked with Hasselbeck. Britt offers more upside than any Tennessee receiver in Week 10 and beyond.

Score Prediction: Dolphins 24, Titans 17

Atlanta @ New Orleans

Falcons-Saints unsurprisingly has the highest over-under of Week 10 at 53.5 points. Fire up all of your guys in this one. ... After an uncharacteristically inaccurate Week 8 game in Denver, Drew Brees returned to the bright lights of the Superdome on Monday Night Football, and re-found his stroke against the Eagles. Brees was lights out for all four quarters, completing a season-best 77.8 percent of his attempts and racking up big throw after big throw. In a near-certain shootout, Brees figures to have his way with Atlanta's No. 14 pass defense in Week 10. ... At full strength again, Jimmy Graham got open with ease against overmatched Eagles S David Sims and looks like a strong candidate to lead all tight ends in fantasy scoring the rest of the way. Graham has a touchdown in each of his last three Falcons meetings, and will be harder to contain with WLB Sean Weatherspoon (ankle) missing another game. Weatherspoon is a key component of Atlanta's coverage schemes at Mike linebacker in the nickel. ... Marques Colston posted stat lines of 7-81-1 and 8-113 in the Saints' two 2011 meetings with the Falcons. Because of where he lines up on the field, Colston projects to square off with Atlanta's two weaker corners in this game: RCB Dunta Robinson and slot CB Robert McClain. The No. 9 overall fantasy wideout, Colston is a locked-and-loaded WR1.

With Graham back healthy, Lance Moore has managed just eight targets the past two weeks, securing five for 86 scoreless yards. Moore played a season-low 24-of-57 snaps (42.1 percent) against Philadelphia and is not a recommended Week 10 fantasy play. ... Devery Henderson will spend most of this game in Falcons top CB Asante Samuel's coverage. Avoid Henderson. ... In the Week 9 absence of Darren Sproles (hand), the Saints employed a three-back timeshare. Pierre Thomas (21 snaps), Mark Ingram (18), and Chris Ivory (13) rotated throughout the game. Thomas' snap rate was head-scratchingly his lowest since Week 1. I wonder if it would have been different had the Eagles posed any real competitive threat, forcing the Saints into more passing situations. The Falcons will definitely do that. … Sproles did not practice this week and was ruled out on Friday. … In a possible pass-happy shootout game, Thomas is still going to be fantasy owners’ best bet in the New Orleans backfield. Ivory and Ingram are low-end flex options. Thomas is a high-upside flex; I think he'll be much more productive in this game than he was against the Eagles.

The No. 5 fantasy quarterback through nine weeks, Matt Ryan figures to pour yards and points on New Orleans' No. 29 pass defense. The Saints' seven sacks of Michael Vick in Week 9 were a mirage; this is not a team that rushes the passer well. From a clean pocket, Ryan is capable of shredding any defense. ... Saints DC Steve Spagnuolo has mixed and matched Jabari Greer and Patrick Robinson between left and right corner recently, based on game-by-game matchups. Struggling Robinson was assigned to DeSean Jackson last Monday night. Jackson promptly went off for 100 yards and a touchdown. Greer has easily been New Orleans' top cover man and held Jeremy Maclin to 28 scoreless yards on two catches. While Julio Jones and Roddy White are both legit WR1s in this likely high-scoring affair, I think the best bet is that Greer will cover Jones on the majority of snaps, and the Saints will put Robinson on White. If I were a bettor, my money would be on White leading the Falcons in Week 10 receiving stats. ... Tony Gonzalez has come back to Earth after a white-hot start to the season. It was inevitable. Gonzo is 36 years old and the Falcons' offensive playcalling is geared toward getting Jones and White the football. You still start Gonzalez against the Saints. He's the No. 4 overall tight end scorer, and there should be enough points recorded by Atlanta to support three productive fantasy efforts in the pass-catching corps.

It seems sensible to look for sleepers in a game like this. Just don't waste your time with Falcons slot receiver Harry Douglas. Douglas, coming off a catch-less effort against Dallas, has seen over five targets in just 1-of-7 games. He's been targeted three times or fewer on four occasions. The Falcons don't try to get Douglas the ball, and you shouldn't bet that they suddenly will. ... A pass-happy affair could cut down on Michael Turner's field time and carries against the Saints, but he's a good bet for a goal-line score regardless. It certainly can't hurt Turner's chances that New Orleans ranks dead last against the run and is surrendering 5.31 yards per tote to enemy ball carriers. The matchup, on paper, is ripe for the picking. ... Because there is so much potential for Falcons-Saints to turn into a pass-happy shootout, and Jacquizz Rodgers is Atlanta's passing-down back, it should surprise no one if he plays more snaps than Turner in this game. He's done it on and off all year. Whether Rodgers will get the ball enough to prove a worthwhile fantasy spot start is up in the air. He's received single-digit touches in three of his last four games. Still, you could do much worse than Rodgers for a dice-roll flex play, especially in PPR. This is a game that plays to Rodgers' strengths as a versatile running back who can make defenders miss in space.

Score Prediction: Saints 35, Falcons 30

Buffalo @ New England

The Bills have backfield dilemma. Theoretically, two productive runners would be a good problem to have. But it's holding the offense hostage right now, because C.J. Spiller isn't getting the ball enough. Fred Jackson is Buffalo's best inside runner, but the only way to get the most out of Spiller is to use him as a feature back. Spiller needs some inside runs, so that his in-space chances aren't telegraphed. His overall volume of touches must increase in order for Spiller to be properly utilized, handling the ball with regularity in all phases of the game. Whether coach Chan Gailey scales back Jackson's in favor of Spiller remains to be seen. Until we see an increased role put into action, Spiller is a boom-or-bust RB2. Averaging 4.52 yards per touch compared to Spiller's league-high 7.82, F-Jax is a flex option. If Gailey does commit to Spiller as the lead back, he is capable of carrying fantasy teams to the championship game. ... The Patriots rank seventh in run defense and surrender the second lowest YPC rate (3.49) in football, so a productive Buffalo run game seems unlikely barring an unforeseen philosophical switch to Spiller. Powered by 310-plus-pound DTs Vince Wilfork and Kyle Love, New England's defensive front is incredibly hard to move off the ball.

The promotion of Marcus Easley from Buffalo's practice squad this week hints at internal concern over Stevie Johnson's badly bruised thigh. The Pats held Johnson to a paltry two catches for 23 yards on ten targets in the teams' Week 4 matchup. 32nd in fantasy receiver scoring this year, consider Johnson a mid-range WR3. ... Defenses are crowding the line of scrimmage against Buffalo's offense because there is zero vertical threat. Gailey's Pistol Spread has become easy to defend. With a 3:4 TD-to-turnover ratio and 186-yard average over his past four games, Ryan Fitzpatrick is a mid-range to low-end QB2 even in a matchup with New England's No. 28 pass defense. He's playing too poorly for standard-league consideration. ... On pace for just 612 yards, 52 catches, and six touchdowns, Bills No. 2 receiver Donald Jones would be a major stretch as a WR3. He's topped 65 yards once in 2012. ... It's written in this space every week and probably won't change: Scott Chandler is a touchdown-dependent player. He hasn't been scoring touchdowns recently. He'll be a worthwhile start if he rediscovers Week 10 pay dirt. He'll be a dud if he doesn't.

With a 52-point projection, Bills-Pats has the second highest over-under of Week 10, behind only Falcons-Saints. Buffalo ranks 31st in total defense, 24th versus the pass, and 31st against the run. Fire up your New Englanders. ... Tom Brady lit up the Bills for 340 yards and four all-purpose touchdowns in the aforementioned Week 4 game. Needless to say, start 'em. ... Rob Gronkowski is on pace to finish as the No. 1 fantasy tight end for a second straight year. Gronk's stat lines in five career meetings with Buffalo: 5-104-1, 8-108-2, 7-109-2, 4-54-2, 3-43-1. ... A potential tweak made during New England's Week 9 bye might have been a reemphasis on getting Brandon Lloyd the ball downfield. Gronk, Wes Welker, and Aaron Hernandez are great, but the Patriots' offense can be absolutely lethal if it presents a vertical threat. Lloyd is the only way they can do that. He'll square off Sunday with a Bills defense that will be minus LCB Aaron Williams (knee) and lost top reserve Terrence McGee (knee) to injured reserve this week. Oft-burned Leodis McKelvin will start outside opposite Stephon Gilmore, and that's a matchup Lloyd would not struggle to exploit.

Great matchups all over the place: Welker burned the Bills for nine receptions and 129 yards in September, and they've since moved on to their second different slot corner of the season. Gailey admitted after that game that Welker is essentially impossible to cover. "To be honest with you," Gailey said, "I don’t believe we’ve had a guy in the three years I’ve been here that can cover that guy one-on-one." ... Hernandez is expected to return against the Bills and will be a top-five tight end moving forward. Playcaller Josh McDaniels has long been big on featuring Hernandez in the pass game, and if you have an opportunity to "buy" him before Sunday's kickoff, jump all over it. Hernandez may not be acquirable the rest of the way. Buffalo has allowed the eighth most fantasy points in the league to tight ends, so both Gronk and Hernandez can have big Week 10 games. ... It may seem unrealistic to think that five Pats skill guys beyond Brady can light up the box score in the same game, but it is not out of the question against such a bad defense. You just start them all. Stevan Ridley is the No. 9 fantasy back and the Bills can't stop the run. ... Brandon Bolden's knee injury and subsequent four-game PED suspension have removed him from the re-draft radar, and Shane Vereen has taken over as the No. 2 back. Because this game has blowout win potential for New England, Vereen is worth a desperation flex-spot roll of the dice.

Sunday Update: Hernandez will not play against Buffalo, ESPN's Adam Schefter reported late Saturday and reiterated Sunday morning. Daniel Fells and Visanthe Shiancoe are candidates for snaps in Hernandez's "move" tight end role, although neither is a fantasy option as Kellen Winslow showed during his early-season stint trying to replace New England's most versatile receiving weapon. The beneficiaries of Hernandez's absence in the box score are likely to include Welker, Gronkowski, and Lloyd. They may see 1-2 additional targets apiece.

Score Prediction: Patriots 35, Bills 10

Denver @ Carolina

NFL Network's Kurt Warner was asked this week to name a midseason MVP. "Matt Ryan has to be up there," he said. "I'm still gonna pick Peyton Manning. He's exceeded expectations, playing as well as he's ever played. ... The thing that puts him over the top is the guys around him play at a higher level than they've ever played before." On a five-game streak of 290-plus yards and three touchdown passes, Manning is a locked-in top-five fantasy quarterback play against the Panthers' overachieving No. 13 pass defense. ... The "guys around him," of course, are Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker. Both are enjoying breakout seasons and are Nos. 7 and 8 in receiver scoring. They're every-week starters. ... Peyton's target distribution since Denver's Week 7 bye: Decker and Demaryius 17, Jacob Tamme 8, Joel Dreessen and Brandon Stokley 6, Willis McGahee and Virgil Green 3, Ronnie Hillman 2. ... Four targets a game won't get it done for Tamme when he averages under nine yards a catch and is working on a seven-game scoreless streak. He's not on the re-draft radar anymore, and isn't helping Denver's offense. ... Carolina ranks in the bottom ten in catches allowed to tight ends, and bottom 15 in yards. No Broncos tight end is a strong fantasy start, but Dreessen is your best bet. He plays more than double the snaps of Tamme and is a fixture in the red-zone offense. Dreessen has four TDs in his last six games.

Peyton’s equal targeting of Decker and Thomas -- and it's been that way all season -- is a reminder that Manning unfailingly keeps both of his top receivers involved. He's been through this in Indy, with Wayne and Harrison. And later Wayne and Garcon. Peyton pays attention; he keeps track. Decker has 70 targets on the season compared to Thomas' 65. Decker is also coming off a bigger game. I'd bet on Thomas having more production in this one. ... Stokley has been highly efficient this season -- 24 catches on 30 targets -- but he's cleared 50 yards in 1-of-8 games. Fantasy owners with designs on winning leagues will aim higher. ... McGahee had a slow Week 9 box score (23-66, 1-4) because the Bengals' defensive line simply won the trench battle against Denver's offensive line. Cincinnati's front four, led by All-Pro candidate DT Geno Atkins, is good enough to take over a game. While the Panthers have tightened their ship defensively since early in the season, they still don't present a tough enough matchup to warrant avoiding in fantasy leagues. Carolina ranks 20th versus the run and middle of the pack in yards-per-carry allowed (4.18 YPC). McGahee is the No. 11 overall fantasy rusher through nine weeks and an every-week starter. ... Confirming that his increased Week 8 role was purely the product of garbage time, Ronnie Hillman received two Week 9 touches and remains a pace-change back. Hillman carries re-draft league value only as a speculative stash who'd lead the backfield if McGahee got hurt.

The Panthers have scaled back the complexity of their offense since the Week 6 bye. It's paying dividends. Carolina came within a last-minute field goal of knocking off the Bears two weeks ago, and got its second win of the season in last Sunday's 21-13 downing of Washington. Cam Newton has the offense on the move, posting a season high for passing yardage (314) at Chicago before accounting for two touchdowns and no turnovers against the Skins. Newton is the No. 7 overall fantasy quarterback over the past three weeks. While Denver's top-ten defense presents another challenge, Newton has shown matchup-proof ability when he is playing well. And he is playing well again. He needs to be started confidently against the Broncos. ... Steve Smith is in his 12th NFL season. Champ Bailey is in his 14th. Somehow, they've never faced each other in an NFL game. Smith has played Denver just once in his career (2008), and Bailey was out injured. So there is no historical data on Bailey shutting down Smith, or Smith dominating Bailey. On pace for 76 receptions and 1,260 yards and coming off his first touchdown of the season, Smith is a strong WR2 in Week 10. 34-year-old Bailey got touched up for a 7/99/1 line by A.J. Green last week.

No. 2 receiver disappointment Brandon LaFell returns from a concussion in Week 10 as a weak WR3 option. While his matchup is favorable with heavy defensive attention likely to be devoted to Smith, LaFell has failed to top 65 yards in 5-of-7 appearances this season and is the No. 3 option in the pass game behind Smith and Greg Olsen. LaFell is a boom-or-bust fantasy play. ... 16th in tight end scoring, Olsen has a plus matchup with a Denver defense that struggles at safety and inside linebacker. The middle of the field is often left open. The Broncos have allowed the third most fantasy points to tight ends. Olsen is on the back-end TE1 radar this week. ... The Panthers have shown no commitment to Jonathan Stewart -- or the running game in general, really -- for the majority of the season. After a 21-touch game against the Bears in Week 8, Stewart handled 11 at Washington, generating 57 scoreless yards. DeAngelo Williams was used sparingly, but broke off a 30-yard touchdown among his six carries. The NFL later ruled that the TD shouldn't have counted because line judge Thomas Symonette blew his whistle when Williams appeared to step out of bounds at the Redskins' 17. Stewart remains the superior fantasy play moving forward, but he's just a flex option. Williams is the Panthers' change-of-pace back until proven otherwise.

Score Prediction: Broncos 28, Panthers 21

4:05PM ET Game

NY Jets @ Seattle

Only two games this week have over-unders below 40 points. Jets-Seahawks is one, and Niners-Rams is the other. Start your every-week studs, but peruse games with higher scoring projections for Week 10 sleepers. ... Greg Cosell suggested this week that the Jets may have a hard time scoring points, period, in Seattle. And that this is the week Mark Sanchez could be benched for Tim Tebow. "Everyone wants to talk about Tebow," Cosell said. "And I think this could easily be the game, at some point. I don't think they're gonna run the ball effectively. And ... against that press-man and the pressure that the Seahawks put on quarterbacks, I don't think this bodes well for the Jets' pass game." ... Although Shonn Greene picked up his play before New York's Week 9 bye, he will run head-on into a brick-wall Seahawks front seven. Also potentially losing snaps to returning passing-down back Bilal Powell (shoulder), Greene is a low-upside flex play in Week 10.

Sanchez is an inside-the-numbers, short-to-intermediate passer at his absolute finest, and no Jets pass catcher better complements that skill set than Dustin Keller. Fully over his early-season hamstring strain following a Week 9 bye, Keller is worth a long look as a TE1. Seattle's defense is most vulnerable underneath and down the seam, having surrendered the sixth most catches and eighth most yards to tight ends. ... Sanchez's target distribution since Keller got healthy in Week 7: Jeremy Kerley 22, Keller 18, Stephen Hill and Greene 14, Clyde Gates 11, Chaz Schilens 8. ... Kerley could salvage production in the slot on passing downs, but he won't get off the line of scrimmage at 5-foot-9, 190 against Seattle's overpowering press corners outside. Kerley is a low-end WR3 option in Week 10. ... The Seahawks play top-seven pass defense and are especially smothering at home. In four games at CenturyLink Field, enemy quarterbacks have combined to complete 96-of-159 passes for 932 yards (5.86 YPA), just three touchdowns, and four picks this year. The schedule has included Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Tony Romo; Seattle isn't shutting down stiffs. Sanchez is awfully close to a stiff, so it's fair to reason that this game could get ugly. Start Keller, but otherwise expect little passing success from the Jets in this matchup.

If the Seahawks loosened their leash on Russell Wilson in Week 8, it didn't carry over to Week 9. Wilson still played well in the game, but Seattle reverted to its season-long approach of simply pouring on rushing attempts. Unafraid of an oft-stout Vikings defensive front, the Seahawks piled up 45 carries as a team. Marshawn Lynch is the featured player in Seattle's offense, and he's a top-five running back start against the Jets' No. 29 run defense. ... Even after the loss of Darrelle Revis, New York is playing top-six pass defense and has not allowed an enemy No. 1 outside receiver to score a touchdown since Revis went down in Week 3. Playing the best ball of his career and earning a spot on my Midseason All-Pro Team, Antonio Cromartie is reason enough to hold Sidney Rice out of Week 10 fantasy lineups. ... Coming off a two-score, six-touch effort, Golden Tate has a better matchup than his teammate against the Jets. A poor man's Percy Harvin, Tate rushed twice for 21 yards on top of his Week 9 receiving stats and should get the better of Jets No. 2 CB Kyle Wilson. Tate is a quality bye-week crunch WR3. ... Wilson should be picked up in all leagues as a high-upside QB2. He has an 8:2 TD-to-INT ratio over the past month and could earn more rope if he keeps playing lights out. Wilson has been terrific in recent games.

Score Prediction: Seahawks 20, Jets 9

4:25PM ET Games

Dallas @ Philadelphia

Dez Bryant has missed practice time and been listed as questionable twice this year -- Weeks 7 at Carolina and 9 at Atlanta. In those games, he's amassed seven combined targets for three catches and 29 yards. In his healthy six games, Bryant is averaging ten targets, 6.5 receptions, and 79 yards. Bryant was largely a decoy against the Falcons last week, running clear-out routes as Miles Austin and Jason Witten racked up seven catches apiece. Listed as probable for Week 10 after a full practice week, look for Dez to be the go-to guy in a game plan that attacks struggling RCB Nnamdi Asomugha. Asomugha has zero recovery speed and can't tackle -- big problems against Dez's explosiveness and physicality. ... Kevin Ogletree's 3/96/1 stat line looks good in the Week 9 box score, but Dallas' coaching staff contemplated reducing his snaps this week because he's been so error prone. Ogletree suffered his third drop in the past five games at Atlanta, and is missing assignments and blowing blocks. He's part of Tony Romo's problem, not a solution. ESPN Dallas reported this week that there is a "high level of frustration" with Ogletree inside Valley Ranch. ... Austin has at least nine targets in three straight games, and is a top-five fantasy receiver over the past three weeks. Philadelphia's pass defense presents a favorable matchup for any opposing wideout, so confidently fire up Austin.

If the Eagles were rushing the passer like they did in 2011, perhaps Jason Witten would have to stay in to block, affecting his Week 10 outlook. But Philly's anemic pass rush has produced all of 11 sacks through eight games, ranking 31st in the NFL. Since a slow start, Witten has locked himself back in as an every-week starter. ... Bryant, Austin, and Witten are all recommended plays, and so is Romo. This is the kind of game in which Romo -- or any quarterback, for that matter -- should thrive. No real threat of pressure and slumping defensive backs. Start 'em. ... Philly plays middling run defense (No. 16 rank, 4.23 YPC allowed), but Dallas' lack of backfield clarity and running lanes makes Felix Jones, Lance Dunbar, and Phillip Tanner undesirable fantasy options. Managing just 113 yards on his last 41 carries (2.76 YPC), Jones is playing so poorly that he could be overtaken this game by undrafted rookie Dunbar. Jones finished last week's game with 70 yards on five receptions, although he got 41 of the yards on the two final plays of the game, on desperation throws with Atlanta in an "umbrella" prevent defense. Those receiving stats are not a sign of things to come. I personally might play Dunbar over Jones in Week 10.

Michael Vick is keeping his starting job for one more week. It's the right decision by coach Andy Reid, because he'd otherwise be throwing rookie Nick Foles into a dumpster fire of an offense. Starting four backup linemen, the Eagles simply can not pass protect, and it's reached the point that they're pushing Arizona for the worst O-Line in football. "The Eagles right now on offense are a mess," NFL Films' Greg Cosell said on ESPN Radio this week. "Rob Ryan is probably salivating when he looks at this offense. ... They can't recognize and react to pressure. I think Rob Ryan will come at them." Saints DC Steve Spagnuolo laid the blueprint for torpedoing Philly's offense last Monday night, blitzing on every snap. Dallas ranks fifth in pass defense and plays outstanding back-end coverage. It's difficult to imagine the Eagles moving the ball through the air in this game. ... Reid has always been a pass-happy playcaller, but he'd be smart to draw up a three-step-drop passing game and lean heavily on LeSean McCoy, at least in this matchup. Losing ILB Sean Lee has weakened the Cowboys' run defense, and declining Michael Turner lit them up for 102 yards and a score on 20 carries (5.10 YPC) in Week 9. McCoy has at least 130 total yards and/or a touchdown in five consecutive games. Start McCoy. Strongly consider leaving Vick on your bench.

Although the likelihood of Week 10 passing game success is minimal for Philadelphia, Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson remain in the WR3 mix because they both possess big-play ability and can score long touchdowns. The Cowboys' defensive backs move around too much to try to guess coverage assignments, but ultimately neither Eagles wideout has an especially attractive matchup this week. ... In pass coverage at least, Dallas has done well to mitigate the impact of Sean Lee's loss with effective safety play and by plugging impressive street free agent Ernie Sims into the lineup adjacent Bruce Carter. The Cowboys have held Tony Gonzalez (4-36), Martellus Bennett (4-29), and Greg Olsen (4-31) in check over the past three weeks. Having failed to clear 60 receiving yards in any game since Week 2, Brent Celek offers scant fantasy upside on the surface and lacks an appealing matchup. ... Mike Clay of Rotoworld and Pro Football Focus has touted Eagles rookie RB Bryce Brown as a recommended fantasy "stash" all season long. He’s a guy who could become an every-week fantasy starter if McCoy got hurt. Brown showed his big-run potential on a 40-yarder in last week's loss to the Saints, and is worth rostering if you have space.

Score Prediction: Cowboys 28, Eagles 17

St. Louis @ San Francisco

The Rams' run defense has played much better since first-round DT Michael Brockers returned from an early-season high ankle sprain. But the Niners' overpowering offensive line and blocking schemes ruin even the league's best defensive fronts. That was particularly evident in Week 7, when Frank Gore busted up Seattle for 182 total yards on 21 touches. Gore's overworked legs are fresh returning from a Week 9 bye, and it's difficult to imagine St. Louis stopping him. ... Kendall Hunter still isn't a standalone fantasy option -- he needs a Gore injury for that -- but he continues to be one of fantasy's top running back stashes. Used most often to attack the edges of defenses, Hunter is averaging 5.02 yards a carry with seven catches. He could be a 15-17 touch-per-game player behind the NFL's premier run-blocking line if Gore went down. ... The Rams have allowed the seventh most fantasy points tight ends, creating a favorable Week 10 matchup for Vernon Davis. In a three-game funk, Davis has burned St. Louis for at least 70 yards and/or a touchdown in five of their past six meetings. He ripped up the Rams for an 8-118 stat line last January. Glass-half-full fantasy owners can speculate that the 49ers tweaked their offense during the bye to help free up Davis for more pass-catching opportunities. Defenses have been taking him away of late.

The Rams’ defensive strength is secondary play and the outside-edge rush of Robert Quinn and Chris Long. Opposing offenses typically draw up game plans against St. Louis that attempt to minimize the impact of the high-motor and athletic defensive ends. Look for a quick-strike approach that goes heavy on three-step drops out of San Francisco on Sunday. It would play to the strengths of Davis and slot/Z receiver Michael Crabtree. … Randy Moss and Mario Manningham are less likely to contribute to the Niners’ offensive success. Although Moss scored a 47-yard catch-and-run touchdown in Week 8 against the Cardinals, before the Week 9 bye, I didn’t think he “looked like the old Moss” at all on that play, as some have suggested. He looked awfully stiff, like his fluidity and quick-twitch athleticism have evaporated. He’d be an incredibly poor fantasy bet in this game. … Manningham has one touchdown on the season and is averaging under 40 yards per game. Aim higher. … Alex Smith is a two-quarterback league option only against the Rams. He’s 18th in fantasy quarterback scoring, and likely headed for a low volume of pass attempts as the Niners attack the Rams with the run.

The Rams will get some offensive line reinforcements coming off a Week 9 bye, but they could be at full strength and still get pile driven by San Francisco's defensive front. This is a mismatch. Steven Jackson has been running better all season than his stats indicate, but a combo of poor front-five play, brutal schedule, and his timeshare with Daryl Richardson have left S-Jax at 26th in running back scoring. Jackson has better matchups ahead -- like Week 11 versus the Jets -- but this week he's no better than a low-end flex. Attacking the Niners with Richardson might be the Rams' best bet. ... That doesn't make Richardson a great fantasy play, of course. San Francisco has incredible speed at linebacker, particularly on the interior with Navorro Bowman and Patrick Willis, and routinely make life difficult on opposing run games that try to get the perimeter. Fantasy owners are better off avoiding the Rams' backfield altogether in Week 10. ... There are two other St. Louis skill players worth fantasy consideration Sunday. The first is Danny Amendola, who can beat 49ers CB Carlos Rogers with superior quickness in the slot. Healthy again, Amendola should be immediately reinserted into PPR lineups as a WR3. He's a low-end option in standard settings as a poor bet for touchdowns in this matchup. ... Rookie burner Chris Givens is the other. Givens has big-play ability and elite straight-line speed, but fantasy owners would ideally put him on a wait-and-see week at San Francisco. He may or may not play ahead of veteran Brandon Gibson.

Score Prediction: 49ers 24, Rams 14

Sunday Night Football

Houston @ Chicago

Texans-Bears is the biggest game of Week 10, and it’s not really close, but it isn’t a good game to target for fantasy purposes. Each team is playing top-six defense and ranks in the top three in sacks. Start your studs, but shy away from borderline fantasy starters. … Jay Cutler could be in for a long night barring an ingenious game plan from OC Mike Tice. Wade Phillips’ Texans defense will attack Cutler with the blitz, and it’s no secret that Chicago’s team weakness is offensive line play. This game has potential to get ugly, quickly for Chicago’s passing attack. … Phillips promises to double team Brandon Marshall on every down Sunday night, which makes sense because Marshall is the Bears’ only real threat in the passing game. Cutler has shown time and time again, however, that he is willing to throw to Marshall when covered. And Marshall moves around the formation and is skilled enough to both defeat and simply avoid double teams. Start Marshall with confidence. He’s on pace for nearly 120 receptions, 1,600 yards, and 14 touchdowns. … Earl Bennett, Devin Hester, and Kellen Davis are waiver-wire material in fantasy leagues. If the Bears are going to have any passing game success against the Texans, it will almost certainly be because Cutler is fitting the football into tight spaces to Marshall.

Rookie wideout Alshon Jeffery may be the long-term answer for the Bears’ inability to establish an alternative passing-game weapon behind Marshall. Unfortunately, Jeffery is listed as doubtful with a fractured hand. … Tice can give Marshall, Cutler, and his offensive line help by leaning on the run game Sunday night. Chicago’s offensive line is much better as a run-blocking than pass-protecting group, and Matt Forte is rolling with 362 yards on his last 68 carries. That’s good for a 5.32 YPC clip. Houston’s heavyweight 3-4 front seven is susceptible to backs that get out in space, and Forte is that kind of a runner. Lock him into fantasy lineups. … Michael Bush saw an uptick in Week 9 carries due only to the fact that the Bears were blowing out the Titans. He still managed just 33 scoreless yards on 11 touches. Bush is a fantasy handcuff and nothing more.

Finding pay dirt for the fifth time in six games during last week's win over Buffalo, Owen Daniels leapfrogged Tony Gonzalez and Heath Miller in fantasy tight end scoring and is now No. 2 overall behind Rob Gronkowski. Daniels is an every-week TE1 and must-start if he plays, but he missed early-week practices with a hip injury. Keep an eye on this situation into Sunday. Daniels may be a game-time decision. … Lovie Smith's Cover 2 defense is annually exposable down the middle. This year, Chicago has allowed the fifth most receptions and 13th most yards to tight ends. Daniels owners can protect themselves against a pre-game scratch by securing productive backup James Casey. Casey is a good player, and this is a great matchup. ... On the other hand, the Bears present as unfavorable a matchup as it gets for any receiver who aligns to the outside of the formation. And that's where Andre Johnson plays. Perhaps downgrade him from WR2 to top-end WR3 if you're wideout rich, but Johnson is coming off an awfully impressive Week 9 game. He dog-walked Bills LCB Aaron Williams' coverage for the first two quarters, before Williams suffered a knee injury. Usual RCB Stephon Gilmore was subsequently assigned to shadow Johnson, and Gilmore got abused, too. Johnson finished with 118 yards on eight receptions, and missed a 30-yard fourth-quarter touchdown bomb by a foot on a slight Matt Schaub overthrow. Johnson is working on a three-game receiving average of 8-93.

Ranked No. 19 in fantasy quarterback scoring through the season’s first nine weeks, Schaub is a mid-range to low-end QB2 who offers upside and streamer appeal only when the Texans are involved in possible shootouts. There is seemingly little chance that Houston-Chicago could evolve into a shootout. Schaub is not on the QB1 radar this week, and he’s not a great two-quarterback league option, either. … I suspect we will see usual LCB Charles Tillman match up with Johnson in this game, while RCB Tim Jennings moves to the other side to take on Kevin Walter. Jennings is no slouch and Walter is too often an afterthought in Chicago’s passing game for confident fantasy use. … The Bears rank No. 6 in run defense, although they’d be No. 1 or 2 if not for last week’s 80-yard touchdown allowed to Chris Johnson in garbage time, by Lovie’s second-team group. Arian Foster’s fantasy owners can still count on heavy volume and goal-line chances to keep their RB1’s Week 10 outlook afloat. Ben Tate (hamstring) will miss another game. Foster leads the NFL in carries (384 pace), touches (408), and touchdowns (22).

Score Prediction: Texans 20, Bears 17

Monday Night Football

Kansas City @ Pittsburgh

Man, that Week 9 same-day flight really cost the Steelers. Not. Pittsburgh's defense dominated the Giants' offense in last Sunday's 24-20 win, putting the game away with a relentless fourth-quarter power run game. Back home where they haven't lost since early last November, the Steelers will look to pour points on a Chiefs team OC Todd Haley still feels did him wrong with last year's in-season firing. "There is no love lost between Todd Haley and Chiefs GM Scott Pioli," said Adam Schefter on SportsCenter this week. "If the Steelers have a chance to run up the score, Haley would not hesitate to do that. This is a very important game to him." ... Ben Roethlisberger is playing career-best football in Haley's offense. At the season's halfway point, he's on pace for career highs in pass attempts (596), TD-to-INT ratio (32:8), and passing yards (4,406). He's the No. 7 fantasy quarterback and an every-week QB1. ... Coach Mike Tomlin is promising a "hot hand" backfield against the Chiefs with Jonathan Dwyer returning from a quad injury to pair with Isaac Redman. The matchup is obviously favorable; Kansas City ranks 22nd against the run. The carry distribution is up in the air. Dwyer and Redman are both dicey flex options on Monday night.

The Chiefs have used SS Eric Berry in man coverage of tight ends all year. Berry is struggling mightily. Kansas City's production allowed to tight ends isn't off the charts, but this is a plus matchup for Heath Miller. Miller is the No. 3 fantasy tight end, so shake off his relatively slow Week 9 stat line (4-48) and start him. ... It was too little, too late for Kansas City to roll heads this week, stripping coach Romeo Crennel's defensive coordinator duties and cutting RCB Stanford Routt. They may have wanted to wait one more week to cut Routt, though. At least he can run. On Monday night, fleet-footed Mike Wallace will spend most of his snaps in heavy-legged RCBs Javier Arenas and Travis Daniels' coverage. And Haley -- who helped draft Arenas -- knows Kansas City's defensive personnel well. Wallace's volume of deep routes has diminished in Haley's quick-hitting, Kurt Warnerian offense, but this would be an ideal matchup to unleash the speed demon. ... Chiefs LCB Brandon Flowers has been targeted by offenses just nine times in the past three games. Per Pro Football Focus, Philip Rivers completely ignored Flowers' side of the field in Week 9, not challenging his coverage on any of Rivers' 20 throws. It speaks to the respect offenses have for Flowers' cover skills, as well as the target on the back of Kansas City's other corners. Emmanuel Sanders is an appealing WR3 with Antonio Brown (high ankle sprain) out for Week 10, but fantasy owners need to hope he doesn't get stuck on Flowers' side of the field.

Friday Update: I've gotten a few questions about Wallace's cornerback matchup. Wallace is an "X" receiver, playing the majority of his snaps on the left side of the offensive formation. He lines up most often against RCBs. Under Crennel, the Chiefs have unfailingly "played sides" at cornerback, leaving Flowers at left corner with Routt -- and Brandon Carr before him -- always aligning at right corner. They have never used Flowers to shadow opposing top receivers. If the Chiefs play like they always play, and the Steelers play like they always play, Wallace should avoid Flowers' coverage on the majority of Monday night's snaps.

Saturday Morning Update: I got Wallace's formation stats from Mike Clay. Per Clay's charted data, Wallace has played 60 percent of his 2012 snaps at LWR (typically the X receiver). Wallace has played only 28 percent at RWR, the receiver spot that goes against Flowers' side of the field. Wallace has played 12 percent of his snaps in the slot. So I stand by the projection that Wallace will avoid Flowers' coverage for the majority of this game.

The Steelers rank No. 1 in the NFL in total defense. They are No. 1 against the pass and No. 7 against the run, so you aren’t going to find any good fantasy matchups on the Chiefs’ side. … If you are starting Jamaal Charles, you are essentially entrusting your fantasy lineup decision to a combination of the running back’s talent and Kansas City’s coaching staff. You’re betting that Charles is capable of making big plays – he obviously is – and that the Chiefs will give him opportunities to do so. The latter is dicey. We can say this confidently: Playcaller Brian Daboll would be a complete fool to run Peyton Hillis into the Steelers’ brick-wall defense on Monday night. … The quarterback and offensive situation as a whole haven’t helped, but the primary reason Jon Baldwin hasn’t been producing is because he isn’t playing well. He isn’t separating from defensive backs or turning his opportunities into big plays. He’s waiver-wire fodder. … Steelers RCB Ike Taylor is shutting down receivers left and right since a slow start to the season. Just ask A.J. Green (1-8-1), Hakeem Nicks (1-10-0), and Leonard Hankerson (1-16). There is hope for Dwayne Bowe, though. It’s called garbage time. … So much for Tony Moeaki's eight-target, 57-yard Week 8 game. He wasn't targeted on a single Week 9 pass. Moeaki is not on the fantasy radar.

Score Prediction: Steelers 30, Chiefs 7