1:00PM ET Games
Buffalo @ Indianapolis
C.J. Spiller has long been a terrific space runner; perhaps the best "satellite" back in the league. But in his Week 11 audition as Buffalo's bellcow, Spiller displayed an ability to sustain a rushing attack, breaking off chain-moving gains inside and out en route to 130 yards on 25 touches. And he did it against a Dolphins defense that entered the game ranked fifth versus the run. It was a big step forward in Spiller's career. "If he can continue this work," NFL Network's Marshall Faulk opined after the Bills' 19-14 Thursday night win, "it's gonna be hard for them to continue to play Fred Jackson like they do right now." Jackson is due back from his concussion in Week 12, but Chan Gailey has promoted Spiller into the starting lineup after he established himself as the superior backfield option. Start Spiller as an RB1 against the Colts' No. 22 run defense. He'll be a fantasy difference maker down the stretch. ... The favorable matchup keeps Jackson on the flex-play radar, but don't be surprised if he tops out at 10-12 touches. His value is fading. ... Touchdown-dependent TE Scott Chandler gets an unfavorable draw versus an Indy defense surrendering the second fewest receptions and fifth fewest yards to tight ends. Chandler is hit-or-miss TE2.
Ryan Fitzpatrick's annual fast start followed by a screeching skid is in full effect for a third straight season. He's managed five combined touchdown passes in his last six games, averaging just 208 yards over that span. With Indy's pass defense nearing full strength as bookend outside-edge rushers Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis return to health, Fitzpatrick is just a two-quarterback league player. ... Although he's managed a single 100-yard game across his last 32 appearances, Stevie Johnson has caught at least five balls in five of the last six weeks and solidified himself as a WR3. The Colts' defense has an 18:4 TD-to-INT ratio against and ranks 20th versus the pass, so Johnson has an attractive matchup indoors at Lucas Oil Stadium. ... Just when Bills slot WR Donald Jones appeared to be approaching low-end WR3 value, Jones let down fantasy owners with 11 yards on two receptions in Buffalo's Week 11 win over Miami. Jones lacks dynamic physical tools and is no better than third in line for weekly Bills skill-position looks, behind Spiller and Johnson. He's not worth a Week 12 play. ... With F-Jax back healthy, drop Tashard Choice in all leagues.
The Bills have begun using rookie corner Stephon Gilmore to shadow opposing No. 1 receivers. He's responded by holding Brandon Lloyd (4-45) and Brian Hartline (4-49) in check the past two weeks. Reggie Wayne is better than Lloyd and Hartline and moves around the formation more than both of them, making him difficult for defenses to track. Play Wayne confidently as a WR1 versus Buffalo, but I'll be keeping an eye on Gilmore. After a typically toasty start for a rookie cornerback, Gilmore has come on very strong. ... Donnie Avery received early-week clearance from his Week 11 concussion and will start against the Bills. Both Avery and rookie T.Y. Hilton have attractive matchups versus Nos. 2 and 3 CBs Leodis McKelvin and Justin Rogers, but they have rendered each other inconsistent with unpredictable box-score production when both have been healthy this year. Avery and Hilton are shaky, roll-of-the-dice WR3 plays. … The No. 10 overall fantasy quarterback through ten games, Andrew Luck squares off Sunday with a Buffalo defense that ranks 18th versus the pass but has made major strides since early in the season, both in terms of up-front pass rush and back-end coverage. As his production to this point in the year suggests, Luck is a low-end QB1 play.
Rookie Vick Ballard has bypassed Donald Brown for Colts feature back duties. Ballard has 50 touches compared to Brown's 21 over the past three weeks, showing himself to be a better fit for Indianapolis' power-running offense. Brown is a dancer at the line of scrimmage with some straight-line speed, profiling as a change-of-pace back. Battling ongoing knee issues following an in-season scope, Brown is off the fantasy radar at this point. Ballard loses goal-line carries to Delone Carter, and is a low-upside flex despite a favorable matchup against the Bills' No. 31 run defense. ... Coby Fleener (shoulder) returned to practice this week on a limited basis. He's not likely to play before Week 13. Dwayne Allen is still more of a TE2 with bye weeks out of the way and full fantasy rosters restored for owners. Buffalo has been a middling defense against tight ends, allowing the 14th most yards and 13th most fantasy points to the position this year.
Score Projection: Colts 24, Bills 20
Tennessee @ Jacksonville
Chad Henne has attempted 71 passes in parts of four games this season. His target distribution: Justin Blackmon 18, Cecil Shorts 16, Micheal Spurlock 8, Rashad Jennings and Jalen Parmele 6, Laurent Robinson and Marcedes Lewis 5. ... In his first nine games, Blackmon caught a combined 26 balls for 250 yards and one touchdown. In Week 11 alone, Blackmon destroyed Texans LCB Kareem Jackson and slot CB Brice McCain to the tune of 236 yards and a TD on seven receptions. He was targeted a team-high 12 times by Henne. Blackmon's sluggish early-season performance suggests fantasy owners should proceed with caution, but he's been Henne's favorite target and has a favorable Week 12 matchup with Titans rookie slot CB Coty Sensabaugh. In a matter of one game, Blackmon played his way squarely onto the WR3 fantasy radar. ... Put out of his misery, Blaine Gabbert (shoulder) was placed on injured reserve Tuesday, locking in Henne as the Jaguars' starter the rest of the way. Henne will close out fantasy season with 4-of-5 matchups against bottom-15 pass defenses, including Tennessee's 26th-ranked unit on Sunday. Henne should be locked into two-quarterback league lineups in Week 12 and may flirt with QB1 streamer value if he continues to play well.
Benched after pathetically managing 178 yards on his previous 64 carries (2.78 YPC), Rashad Jennings gave way to Jalen Parmele in Week 11 at Houston. A plodding, straight-line power back in the Jackie Battle mold at 5-foot-11, 224, Parmele was utilized as a true every-down runner and will maintain the role versus the Titans. Volume (27 touches last week, 61-of-66 snaps) thrusts Parmele into flex discussion, and a matchup with Tennessee's 28th-ranked run defense makes him an intriguing, if low-upside start despite replacement-level talent. ... Jennings can be dropped in all leagues. ... Cecil Shorts has at least 100 yards and/or a touchdown in four of his last five games, and is the No. 5 fantasy receiver over the past five weeks, behind only Brandon Marshall, Calvin Johnson, Vincent Jackson, and Randall Cobb. With a plus matchup and Henne giving Jacksonville's passing game credibility, Shorts has earned a WR2 start in Week 12. He’s still a better option than Blackmon. ... Due to a flurry of early-season touchdowns allowed, the Titans have permitted the fourth most fantasy points to tight ends. Can Henne resuscitate Marcedes Lewis' value? He did in Week 11, hitting Lewis twice for red-zone touchdowns. It'd be reckless to expect Henne to suddenly turn the Jags into an offensive juggernaut, but he clearly knows where to go with the football deep in scoring position -- to his 6-foot-6, 275-pound tight end -- and this is a friendly matchup for Lewis on paper.
I was recently asked to name a written-off team I view as capable of catching fire down the stretch and making a surprise playoff push. The question was off the cuff and I wish I could take back my answer. I should have said the Titans. This is a team with explosive offensive potential, and it begins with rejuvenated running back Chris Johnson. Before the Week 11 bye, Johnson shredded the Dolphins' run-tough defense for 134 yards and a touchdown on 24 touches, turning in his best game-tape performance of the year. "I just finished watching them against Miami," ESPN's Merril Hoge said this week. "And he was as decisive as he was two years ago. He was hitting the hole, getting 5-6 yards. He was a completely different back in this game. If he keeps playing like this, the Titans will be a team that will be extremely dangerous." If you took Chris Wesseling's early-season advice and bought low on CJ2K, give yourself a butt-pat and start him against Jacksonville's No. 29 run defense. ... With a 6:2 TD-to-INT ratio, 7.11 YPA, and an 8.6-yard average on scrambles, Jake Locker has performed better this season than his critics might claim. He just needs to stay healthy and string together some productive starts. Locker is a recommended two-quarterback league starter in Week 12, and a stretch-run QB2 with a high ceiling in standard settings.
Coach Mike Munchak promised before the bye to get Kenny Britt more involved in the final six games. “He wants to do more and more and more," Munchak said of Britt, whose season began painfully slowly after multiple offseason knee surgeries. "So I think it’s something we’ll look at to see if we’re using him the best way we possibly can. ... With him out there we're a better football team and we just have to keep finding ways to use him." Kendall Wright and Nate Washington have been effective complementary-role players this season, but Britt has the ability to be a true go-to guy. If fantasy owners are looking to start a Titans receiver against the Jaguars' No. 28 pass defense, Britt should be the pick. ... Jared Cook has finished each of the past two seasons with a flurry, and for that reason is a TE2 to monitor going forward. Cook was a less-than-50-percent player in Tennessee's last four games, however, and Jacksonville gives up the seventh fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Cook is more of a deep-league stash than viable Week 12 starter.
Score Projection: Titans 27, Jaguars 20
Atlanta @ Tampa Bay
Josh Freeman has thrown multiple touchdown passes in six consecutive games. It seems oversimplistic to attribute Freeman's success to something as unquantifiable as "confidence," but it's precisely the reason for his 2012 leap forward. Talent was never an issue for Freeman. "I think his game is confident, and he's confident in this scheme," explained Tampa Times Bucs beat writer Stephen Holder this week. "He wasn't as confident in the early part of the season. ... Now guys are on the same page. He sees things the same as his receivers. And you have the confidence that comes from throwing to a guy like Vincent Jackson. He's every bit the playmaker they thought he'd be. He's raised the level of play of this offense." In a potential shootout between top-ten offenses in sunny Tampa Bay, Freeman is a legit QB1. ... Jackson runs most of his pass routes down the left sideline and will square off Sunday with Falcons RCB Dunta Robinson. Through ten games, Pro Football Focus grades Robinson 100th among 109 qualifying NFL cornerbacks in pass coverage. Keep trotting out V-Jax as a smoking-hot WR1.
No. 2 receiver Mike Williams' production has slowed the past few weeks, and he's averaging just 53 yards over his last five games. Williams has the tougher coverage draw of Bucs receivers, matching up with LCB Asante Samuel. ... Dallas Clark racked up seven Week 11 receptions for 58 yards and a touchdown at Carolina. His production was inflated by comeback mode; the Panthers were leading 21-10 in the fourth quarter and the game went into overtime. Don't chase Clark's last-week points. Kyle Rudolph, Martellus Bennett, and Brandon Myers should all be ranked ahead of him. ... Although Freeman has come on strong, the Bucs won't suddenly become a pass-first offense. They are a run-first club that socks opponents in the mouth. "It's crystal clear what this offense is about. It's about discipline. It's much like the (old) Giants' offense," ESPN's Ron Jaworski observed this week. "It's not complex, not sophisticated. It's, 'we're going to play football first.'" Doug Martin remains the offensive centerpiece. Muscle Hamster is now leading the NFL in yards from scrimmage, averaging 5.08 yards a carry, and on pace for 13 touchdowns. He’s a top-five running back against Atlanta's No. 26 run defense in Week 12.
In a colossal mismatch on the other side, the Falcons' No. 3 passing offense will take on Tampa Bay's No. 32 pass defense. Matt Ryan became the first quarterback since 1967 (Bart Starr) to win a game despite no touchdowns and five interceptions in Week 11, but he's set up for a big bounce back in this favorable matchup. Ryan isn't suddenly a bum. Start him confidently. ... Julio Jones' ankle injury rendered him ineffective (three catches, 33 yards) last Sunday, and held him out of practice again all this week. The beneficiary will continue to be Roddy White. Quietly on pace for a career-high 1,514 yards, White is the No. 6 overall fantasy receiver. ... Although Tony Gonzalez is coming off a slow game (3-33) versus Arizona, he'll remain a top-five TE1 against a Bucs defense allowing the 11th most fantasy points to tight ends. Lock in Gonzo. ... Jones took a sizable step forward in his recovery from the nagging ankle sprain by returning to practice this week, even if it was on a limited basis. Jones didn't get in any practice reps last week. If you're considering benching Julio against the league's last-ranked pass defense, chances are you're overthinking.
ESPN's Chris Mortensen reported on Sunday Countdown before the Cardinals game that the Falcons would increase Jacquizz Rodgers and Jason Snelling's roles at the expense of Michael Turner's. While falling behind early and the resulting game flow didn't quite allow Atlanta to execute its plan, there were signs of it. Rodgers played more snaps than Turner and received double-digit touches for just the second time in the last six games. Rodgers has not been and will continue to not be a standalone fantasy option, but increased playing time for Quizz is bad news for Turner's fantasy value. Turner is also clearly fading down the stretch of his age-30 season. With 255 yards on his last 85 carries (3.0 YPC), Turner is going to struggle to generate positive gains against the Bucs' No. 1 run defense. He will hurt you if he doesn't score at the goal line.
Score Projection: Falcons 34, Bucs 27
Seattle @ Miami
"They're squatting on the wide receivers because none of them can run." -- That was the money quote from Mike Mayock during last Thursday night's Dolphins loss to the Bills. Ryan Tannehill has slammed into a Rookie Wall, in large part because his receivers can't get open. In four appearances since Miami's Week 7 bye, Tannehill is 61-of-110 (55.4 percent) for 666 yards (6.05 YPA), and a 2:5 TD-to-INT ratio. He will not be a fantasy contributor until Miami surrounds him with some talent. ... Although Seattle's defense -- and team, for that matter -- has been better at home than on the road, Pete Carroll's front-seven personnel is capable of rendering Miami's offense one-dimensional. (If it isn't already.) The Dolphins won't run on the Seahawks. Miami has gone six straight games without a running back clearing 60 rushing yards, and Seattle's top-12 run defense is fresh off a bye. Avoid Daniel Thomas and dog-housed Reggie Bush. ... Brian Hartline is another Dolphins skill-position player to avoid, facing off with Seahawks LCB Richard Sherman. Hartline isn't going to be open. ... Slot receiver Davone Bess never offers upside, but he'll be Miami's best bet to move the chains in this game. 32-year-old slot corner Marcus Trufant is one of Seattle's few defensive weak spots. ... With Miami's offense slumping mightily, keep an eye on two explosive rookies for potentially expanded stretch-run roles: No. 4 WR Rishard Matthews, who can add speed and run-after-catch skills to the perimeter, and third-string RB Lamar Miller, who is averaging 5.37 yards per carry.
"I think maybe if we had all done a better job of studying him at Wisconsin," Jaworski admitted of Russell Wilson on a conference call this week, "we'd have known this guy just knows how to ball." With a 10:2 TD-to-INT ratio over his last five games, Wilson has flashed the ability to be a fantasy asset if the Seahawks cooperate. He throws the football downfield as well as any of this year's rookie quarterbacks -- and that's not hyperbole. It will be interesting to see whether he gets more freedom after a Week 11 bye. Sidney Rice and Golden Tate have come on strong, and Seattle could challenge San Francisco for the NFC West's premier offense by complementing the NFL's No. 6 rushing attack with a higher-volume passing game. Wilson is a late-season QB2 with more upside than meets the eye. ... The Fins' pass defense isn't as ineffective as its No. 27 ranking suggests, but it's also not imposing for matchup purposes. Wilson is a quality two-quarterback league play. Rice will deal with shaky Dolphins top CB Sean Smith and is a strong WR3. Rice has five touchdowns in his last five games. Golden Tate's two-game scoring binge is unsustainable, but his offensive role is increasing with playcaller Darrell Bevell making a consistent effort to get the ball in Tate's hands. Tate is worth a WR4 stash to see if Carroll lets Bevell open up the offense.
Doug Baldwin and Zach Miller would be a lot more interesting if the Seahawks weren't last in the NFL in pass attempts. They are waiver-wire fodder. ... Marshawn Lynch has developed a knack for playing his best football in second halves of seasons. He did it in 2010 and 2011, and in 2012 strung together four consecutive 100-yard rushing games before Seattle's bye. A fresh-legged Marshawn Lynch is capable of running on anybody. Start him as an RB1 against Miami's No. 9 run defense. ... Stashing Bryce Brown and Ronnie Hillman is already paying dividends for forward-looking fantasy owners. Seattle rookie Robert Turbin now rises near the top of late-season stash running back lists, along with Evan Royster, Daryl Richardson, and Bernard Pierce. If Lynch went down, Turbin would be an every-week RB2/flex in the Seahawks' run-first offense.
Score Projection: Seahawks 23, Dolphins 10
Denver @ Kansas City
Willis McGahee is almost certainly done for the regular season with a torn MCL and fracture in his leg. He can be safely dumped in fantasy leagues. We'll get to the Denver backfield implications in a minute, but the reality is Peyton Manning, Eric Decker, and Demaryius Thomas are the safest bets to be box-score beneficiaries. The Broncos will not have a sustainable running game moving forward, and they will lean on the pass to move the chains. The Chiefs' defense has allowed the fifth most points in the league. So start Manning, Decker, and Thomas. ... When comparing Decker and Thomas' Week 12 matchups, Thomas clearly comes out on top. Decker plays the majority of his snaps on Chiefs LCB Brandon Flowers' side of the field. Thomas will face RCB Javier Arenas on early downs and Jalil Brown in passing situations, and Manning is undoubtedly aware of those mismatches. Expect Thomas to lead Denver in Week 12 targets, catches, and yards. ... 36-year-old Brandon Stokley has posted 50-plus receiving yards and a touchdown in back-to-back games. He'll take on Arenas for most of this one. Stokley is not a fantasy play for upside seekers, but there are worse WR3 options. Manning has shown time and time again that he will throw to Stokley when he's open. And Stokley should get open frequently against Arenas.
Perhaps the Broncos will lean on TEs Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreessen more with a less reliable run game, but that's speculation. Tamme still hasn't cleared 55 yards in any game this year, nor has he scored a touchdown since the opener. He's a low-end TE2. ... A fantasy owner's ideal scenario in the first game of the post-McGahee era would be to put Denver's backfield on a "wait-and-see" week. There are many different theories as to how it may play out. My opinion is that Ronnie Hillman will be the top back in a three-way rotation, seeing 14-18 touches a game. Lance Ball will be an ineffective change-up runner and see spot duty on third downs. Knowshon Moreno, on whom John Fox's coaching staff soured long ago, will be the emergency third-string back. The Chiefs rank 25th versus the run and surrender 4.50 yards per carry, so this is a plus matchup if Hillman indeed gets the lead back nod. Hillman is a risky flex, but does offer upside in Week 12.
Although Jamaal Charles remained typically underutilized on just 17 carries in Week 11, he came away with 118 total yards and is an every-week fantasy starter. Charles' last four stat lines against the Broncos: 21-116, 2-20; 14-41, 5-80-1; 25-259-2, 1-3; 18-56-1, 1-3. ... Whereas Charles ought to be getting the football more, Peyton Hillis needs to handle it less. Hillis has 55 yards on his last 21 carries (2.62 YPC). Perhaps playcaller Brian Daboll is seeing the light: Hillis only had three touches last week. He's not worth rostering in fantasy leagues. ... Particularly against Denver's top-12 pass defense, the Kansas City pass-catching corps is all but hands off for Week 12 fantasy lineup decisions. Brady Quinn has been reinstalled as the starting quarterback. Dwayne Bowe has neck and back injuries and will draw Champ Bailey in coverage if he plays. Jon Baldwin looks like a real-life draft bust. Dexter McCluster is an ineffective player. Tony Moeaki? No thanks. This could be a game where blocking TE Steve Maneri leads Kansas City in receiving yardage again. It isn’t too mean to call the Chiefs a laughingstock. It’s just being real.
Score Projection: Broncos 28, Chiefs 7
Pittsburgh @ Cleveland
The passing-game production obviously won't be the same, but Charlie Batch is a better fit than Byron Leftwich (ribs) for what OC Todd Haley does offensively. While Batch won't challenge defenses deep, he gets the ball out quickly and can at least partially restore the Steelers' completion-friendly approach. It's precisely how Batch played in his lone 2011 start, engineering a 27-0 win over the Rams last Christmas Eve. Batch is not a standalone fantasy option, but he can manage the game and deliver the football to Mike Wallace and Heath Miller near the line of scrimmage. ... Wallace was Batch's favorite receiver in the St. Louis game. They hooked up four times for a team-high 82 yards. Haley has asked Wallace to run shorter routes, making him a superior complement to Batch's skill set than Wallace was in last year's Bruce Arians offense. Fantasy owners should start Wallace at Cleveland. ... Browns CB Joe Haden is back from his oblique injury, although whether he'll be anywhere near 100 percent is unclear. Haden has often struggled playing at less than full health. His presence is not worrisome for Steelers receivers. ... Emmanuel Sanders will again start for Antonio Brown (ankle). Sanders led Pittsburgh in Week 11 receiving yards with Leftwich at the helm, but he's less attractive with Batch under center. Consider Sanders a WR4. ... Plaxico Burress was signed off the street this week to replace Jerricho Cotchery (ribs) as the third receiver. A red-zone score can't be ruled out for 6-foot-6 Plax, but he's not a viable fantasy option.
Miller should be an inviting target for Batch on quick-pass drops, but whether the 38-year-old journeyman quarterback can revive his tight end to the point of legit fantasy-worthy production remains to be seen. Miller could do an awful lot of blocking if the run game clicks this week. The Browns have also allowed the fewest fantasy points to tight ends, so this isn't a favorable on-paper matchup for Miller. ... The Browns' run-defense ranking stands at 24th on the season, but they are a stouter group than that number indicates with 330-plus-pound DTs Phil Taylor and Ahtyba Rubin healthy. And they are both back to full strength. Cleveland flashed its front-four stoutness by holding a previously hot Cowboys backfield to 53 yards on 19 carries in Week 11 (2.79 YPC). The Browns controlled the line of scrimmage in that matchup. With no role clarity in Pittsburgh's hot-hand rushing attack, Rashard Mendenhall and Jonathan Dwyer are little more than dice-roll flex plays for Week 12. Mendenhall (11-33, 3-17) started last week's loss to Baltimore, but was outgained by Dwyer (12-55, 3-26). Isaac Redman is due back from his concussion this week. I think Mendenhall would be the best fantasy option of the group, but that's nothing more than a guess. Start Steelers running backs at your own peril.
Brandon Weeden was perhaps the NFL's most improved player from Weeks 1-6, but he's hit a bump in the road. While last week's box score isn't overly unimpressive, Weeden struggled to move the offense throughout the loss to the Dallas and continues to react poorly to the slightest hint of pressure. He could bottom out versus a Steelers club that ranks No. 1 in total defense and No. 1 against the pass. ... Weeden's Rookie Wall combined with this brutal matchup make Josh Gordon and Greg Little unappealing WR3s. The bye weeks are over, and fantasy leaguers should have better options at their disposal this late in the season. If you don't, you're probably not a competitive owner. ... Historical data makes Ben Watson's two Week 11 touchdowns look awfully fluky; the 32-year-old had one TD in his previous 18 games. Don't chase last week's points. Look elsewhere for a Week 12 fantasy tight end. ... The Browns had a bye in Week 10. They emerged from it against Dallas feeding Trent Richardson the rock. Richardson's 34 touches were a season high, and perhaps a sign that Cleveland will make a stretch-run commitment to the run game. The No. 6 overall fantasy running back despite some early-season injury concerns, Richardson is an RB2 at the very least despite matching up with Pittsburgh's top-four run defense. Minus Big Ben, this game should be close and Richardson should continue to be fed the football.
Score Projection: Steelers 17, Browns 14
Minnesota @ Chicago
After an abominable Weeks 7-9 stretch that saw Christian Ponder average 124 passing yards per game, Minnesota's quarterback pulled himself up by the bootstraps and moved the offense in Week 10, before the Vikings' Week 11 bye. Even without Percy Harvin (ankle), Ponder completed 75 percent of his throws for 221 yards, two touchdowns, and no turnovers in a must-win over the Lions. The post-bye matchup at Soldier Field against a ferocious Bears defense with something to prove after last Monday night's embarrassing 49ers loss is about as unfavorable as possible for Ponder. But playing confident, efficient ball for a second straight game in tough environs would be a positive step for a quarterback many left for dead just a few weeks ago. It would also bode well for Harvin, Adrian Peterson, and Kyle Rudolph's fantasy outlooks. ... As long as Ponder is playing well, Rudolph is capable of scoring like a mid-range TE1. The Bears have permitted the fourth most receptions and 13th most yards to tight ends, so this is a plus matchup for Rudolph. 49ers tight ends shredded Chicago for seven catches, 92 yards and a touchdown on Monday night.
Chicago's defense appears more vulnerable on the ground than anywhere else entering Week 12. Now playing on a short week, the Bears have surrendered 407 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 82 carries (4.96 YPC) over their last three games. Already matchup proof, Peterson should not struggle to light up this group. ... CBS Sports' Jason La Canfora reported on Thanksgiving Day that Harvin will not play at Soldier Field. He'll be replaced in the lineup by rookie Jarius Wright. Filling in for Harvin in Week 10 against the Lions, Wright pulled in 3-of-5 targets for 65 yards and a touchdown. He's in for a much tougher test on the Midway Monsters’ home turf. ... Jerome Simpson has been a bust of a free-agent signing for Minnesota. He hasn't scored a touchdown or exceeded 50 yards in any of his six games as a Viking. Bears outside CBs Tim Jennings and Charles Tillman should have very little trouble taking Simpson out of this game.
Over their last five games, the Vikings have served up 723 yards and six rushing scores on 161 carries (4.49 YPC) to opposing ground attacks. Minnesota has long fielded stout run defenses, but the front four has been moved off the ball easily in recent games. Perhaps they'll play better after a bye, but the recent performance indicates this should not be an overly difficult matchup for slumping Matt Forte. ... The Vikings lost their answer for No. 2 overall fantasy receiver Brandon Marshall when top outside corner Chris Cook fractured his arm in Week 8. In two games since, they've allowed 16 catches for 271 yards and two touchdowns to opposing No. 1 receivers. Jay Cutler's return to the lineup locks in Marshall as a top-three Week 12 wideout play. ... With Alshon Jeffery (knee scope) sidelined 2-4 weeks, the Bears will turn to a rotation of Earl Bennett and Devin Hester at No. 2 receiver. Neither is a fantasy option. ... Cutler's presence is a big lift for a Chicago offense that is obviously lost without him. He just isn't much of a standalone fantasy asset. The Bears play run-heavy offense, ranking 29th in the league in pass attempts, and they lack a playmaking pass catcher behind Marshall. Just 25th fantasy points per game among quarterbacks, Cutler is a low-end QB2 matching up with Minnesota's 16th-ranked pass defense.
Score Projection: Bears 21, Vikings 17
Oakland @ Cincinnati
I entered the 2012 season skeptical of Andy Dalton as a fantasy contributor because of his talent limitations and lack of weaponry beyond A.J. Green. But defenses have demonstrated no ability to contain Green, and the Bengals appear to have internally determined that passing must be their primary means of ball movement because BenJarvus Green-Ellis is so ineffective. Dalton is averaging 36.3 attempts over his last six games, a top-11 clip in football and recipe for high-end QB2 production. The Raiders have been throttled by the pass over their last three games, serving up a combined 59-of-90 (65.6 percent) attempts for 807 yards (8.97 YPA) and an 8:1 TD-to-INT ratio. Dalton is an attractive QB1 streamer and should be locked into two-QB league lineups. ... Green leads the NFL in receiving TDs and ranks first in fantasy wideout scoring. You might want to use him versus Oakland. ... Starting Jermaine Gresham will put you at a weekly disadvantage when matched up head-to-head with teams that trot out Jimmy Graham, Vernon Davis, or a healthy Aaron Hernandez. There is a major gap in production. The increase in passing volume for Cincinnati has stabilized Gresham as a low-end TE1, though, and he's got 60-plus yards and/or a touchdown in five of his last six games. He can at least keep you competitive at tight end.
The Bengals have finally committed to a No. 2 receiver, and it's not Armon Binns, Brandon Tate, or Andrew Hawkins. Rookie Mohamed Sanu is the No. 3 option in the Bengals' pass attack, but he's emerged as an every-down player and found pay dirt in back-to-back games. A strong-handed possession threat, he's worth rostering as a WR4/5 for the stretch run. ... Green-Ellis capitalized on an early second-quarter 14-3 lead in last week's blowout win over the Chiefs en route to a six-game high in carries (25) and 24-game high in rushing yards (101). He'll be a worthwhile RB2/flex in Week 12 if this game plays out like the last one. Just keep in mind Green-Ellis has virtually no passing-game role, and the Bengals remain intent on increasing change-up back Cedric Peerman's usage. Peerman broke off 75 yards on eight carries at Kansas City. Green-Ellis' fantasy outlook will be much more bleak when Cincy faces halfway decent teams.
Marcel Reece's Week 11 rushing efficiency (19-103) was inflated by a New Orleans defense that gets blown off the ball and plays the run poorly all around. That said, Reece has certainly showed an ability to soak up blocked yardage as a true running back, and he's been the most consistent receiver on Oakland's roster the past three weeks. Darren McFadden and Mike Goodson's high ankle sprains will shelve them again in Week 12, leaving every-down back duties to Reece once again. The Bengals rank 17th against the run and average a touchdown allowed per game. Reece is becoming increasingly difficult to leave out of weekly fantasy lineups. He's a borderline top-ten running back play in PPR. ... Carson Palmer returns to Cincinnati for the first time since his trade to Oakland last October. It sets up as another potentially prime opportunity to rack up garbage-time stats as Palmer has done so "effectively" in a season that currently sees him stand 11th in fantasy quarterback scoring. The Bengals are slow-footed in the secondary and Oakland's offensive strength is speed on the perimeter. This is a plus matchup for Palmer and his weapons.
I've gotten a lot of questions about Denarius Moore this week. What happened? Should I bench him now? Moore was a locked-and-loaded stud seven weeks running before Week 11. He caught one ball for nine yards against the Saints. I don't think you bench him for going 7-for-8. Moore will run by Cincinnati's defensive backs and is a must-start WR2/3 in Week 12. ... Darrius Heyward-Bey couldn't capitalize on Moore's Week 11 no-show, managing 69 yards on four receptions. DHB appears to be over last week's hamstring scare, but he's been no better than a WR4/5 all season long. ... The Bengals have surrendered the fifth most fantasy points to tight ends, and Brandon Myers' red-zone role has grown the past three weeks to the extent that he's actually scoring touchdowns. Myers opened his career with zero TDs in 49 straight games. He's got three in his last three outings. The matchup and production are right to lock in Myers as a top-12 tight end.
Score Projection: Bengals 27, Raiders 20
4:05PM ET Game
Baltimore @ San Diego
Philip Rivers' target distribution since street free-agent pickup Danario Alexander was installed as a starter two games ago: Alexander 18, Malcom Floyd 13, Ryan Mathews 12, Antonio Gates 9, Eddie Royal 8, Ronnie Brown 6, Robert Meachem 3. ... Alexander has been the one Chargers skill-position player able to overcome a disappointing, inconsistent offense. He's earned 90 percent of the snaps and bypassed Floyd as San Diego's top receiver. At 6-foot-5, 217 with a 42-inch vertical, Alexander wins every jumpball and is perfectly suited to make plays in contested situations on Rivers' downfield floaters. Baltimore's defensive weakness is outside cornerback coverage, and that's where Alexander does his damage. Start "DX" until he slows down. ... Baltimore has lost two of its top three corners (Lardarius Webb, Jimmy Smith) since the start of the season, leaving special teamers Chykie Brown and Corey Graham as regulars across from burnable RCB Cary Williams. Alexander will square off with Williams for most of this game. Floyd will draw Graham on early downs and Brown in the nickel. Floyd is more of a WR3 now that Alexander has emerged, but he's got a favorable matchup. ... While Rivers has strung together three straight multi-touchdown games, shoddy protection remains a major threat to his fantasy start-ability. San Diego will definitely be without LG Tyronne Green (hamstring) against Terrell Suggs' Ravens, and LT Jared Gaither (groin) also appears unlikely to play. Rivers is a QB2 only.
Gates' ups and downs have rendered him more of a back-end TE1 than the annual top-five scorer he's been for so long. But the Ravens have allowed the fifth most yards to tight ends, and Gates is never a bad bet to find pay dirt. He has four touchdowns in his last five games. ... Meachem and Royal belong on waiver wires. ... Settling in disappointingly as a low-end RB2, Mathews is at least off the Week 12 injury report after last week's neck stiffness cost him snaps in favor of Brown and Jackie Battle. Mathews still received 19 touches in the loss to Denver and is a safe weekly bet for 70-plus total yards. Even if it seems impossible to come by at this point, improved offense and increased scoring chances would do wonders for Mathews' fantasy value. Whether they'll come remains to be seen. Mathews does have a favorable Week 12 matchup, facing a Ravens defense that ranks 27th against the run and has surrendered the sixth most rushing touchdowns in the NFL. Matthews touched up Baltimore when its run defense was much stouter last December for 109 yards and two touchdowns. Perhaps he'll rediscover some of that magic down the stretch.
Joe Flacco's 2012 home-and-away splits, courtesy @RotoPat: 322 yards per game at home. 176 on the road. 10 touchdowns in five home games. Three TDs in five road games. 9.3 home YPA. 5.3 on the road. Flacco is on the road this week. It gets tricky trying to use home-and-away stats predictively, but at the same time scary to think this might be a trend. Despite a favorable matchup against San Diego's No. 19 pass defense, Flacco needs to be viewed more as a high-end QB2 than QB1 option in Week 12. ... Torrey Smith is a great bet to bounce back from last week's Ike Taylor shutdown against slow-footed Chargers corners Quentin Jammer and Antoine Cason. Smith plays on either side of the formation enough that he'll see both RCB Cason and LCB Jammer in coverage. To draw on a comparable player, Denarius Moore has owned Jammer in past meetings (5-123-2, 3-101) and Smith is a similar receiver. Shake off last week and start Smith at San Diego. ... With Pittsburgh keying on Smith last Sunday night and Dennis Pitta leaving with a first-drive concussion, Anquan Boldin stepped up for eight catches and 79 yards -- both highs for him since mid-October. Knowing all we know now, Boldin's production bump seems specific to that game. He's a low-upside WR3 facing Chargers slot CB Marcus Gilchrist.
Pitta is expected to play in Week 12, but he's not remotely a TE1. San Diego has shut down tight ends this season, limiting them to the fourth fewest fantasy points due in large part to All-Pro candidate Eric Weddle's safety coverage. A clear-cut TE2, Pitta isn't worth owning beyond 14- and 16-team fantasy leagues at this point. ... Although Ray Rice struggled on the ground versus the Steelers' No. 1 defense last week, Rice's difference-making versatility allowed him to come away with a respectable 93 total yards. He's still the No. 4 overall fantasy running back. San Diego's No. 3 run-defense ranking looks imposing on paper, but Broncos backs touched up the Chargers for 133 yards on 25 carries (5.32 YPC) in Week 11, and they're not as stout a group with NT Aubrayo Franklin (knee) either unavailable or operating at less than 100 percent. Fire up Rice confidently.
Score Projection: Ravens 23, Chargers 20
4:25PM ET Games
St. Louis @ Arizona
With a score projection of 37 points, Rams-Cards has the second lowest over-under of Week 12, behind only Steelers-Browns. These two clubs played to a 17-3 finish in Week 5. This wouldn't appear to be a good game to target for fantasy sleepers. ... Coach Ken Whisenhunt may believe otherwise, but rookie Ryan Lindley threw the football inaccurately off the bench last week, failing to move the offense. This team's lack of a viable quarterback is killing a talented receiver corps. Larry Fitzgerald did rack up 92 yards on eight receptions in the aforementioned Week 5 Rams meeting, but he's slipped to WR3 value with a measly 41.5-yard average over the past month. He's still the only Cardinals wideout worth fantasy consideration this week. ... Back from the temporary I.R. list, it wouldn't be crazy to give Beanie Wells a long look as a Week 12 flex play because he's going to start against St. Louis' 16th-ranked run defense and could flirt with 16-18 carries in what should be a close ball game. It may take a week or two for Wells to regain his legs, however, after missing the last two months with toe and knee injuries. In an ideal world, fantasy owners would put Beanie on a wait-and-see week, and start him against the Jets in Week 13 if he plays well on a voluminous workload. ... Wells' return will reduce La'Rod Stephens-Howling to change-of-pace and passing-down back. Stephens-Howling would need another Beanie injury to regain fantasy start-ability.
With Danny Amendola battling a foot injury, Steven Jackson will be the top fantasy play on either side in this game. After having his early-season workloads reduced to get Daryl Richardson more involved, fresh-legged Jackson is hitting his stride. He's amassed 307 yards and two touchdowns on his last 70 carries (4.39 YPC) and received 46 touches compared to 15 for Richardson the past two weeks. Jackson is a strong RB2 play against Arizona's 20th-ranked run defense in Week 12. ... An explosive role player, Richardson is not a fantasy option but should be rostered in all leagues as a lottery-ticket stash. He could be an every-week flex play if S-Jax went down. ... Amendola is going to be tough to trust in Week 12. Patrick Peterson will shadow him in coverage, and Amendola is a game-time decision in a 4:25ET affair after spending much of the week in a walking boot. "Wait" for Amendola in fantasy leagues at your own risk. ... Chris Givens returned from his one-game disciplinary ban to start ahead of Brandon Gibson in Week 11, but Gibson played more snaps and both failed to clear 20 receiving yards. Givens' big-play ability makes him the best bet if you're picking between the two, but neither is a trustworthy Week 12 fantasy play.
Friday Update: Amendola missed a third straight practice Friday and is listed as doubtful to face the Cardinals. He's not going to play. Rather than turn to St. Louis' receiver corps for potential fantasy beneficiaries, I'd view Jackson as a stronger start. As a short-to-intermediate slot weapon, Amendola is essentially a more dynamic version of a running game. Look for coach Jeff Fisher to lean on Jackson and perhaps a bit more of Richardson against the Cardinals.
Score Projection: Rams 20, Cardinals 7
San Francisco @ New Orleans
Jim Harbaugh teeth-gritted his way through 1 1/2 seasons of Alex Smith. Smith ranked last in the NFL in 2011 pass attempts among 16-game starters, and was 31st this year. So when Colin Kaepernick capitalized on his Week 11 opportunity to start in a concussed Smith's place -- completing 70 percent of 23 throws with two touchdowns and no turnovers against the mighty Bears defense, Harbaugh moved on from the mediocre veteran, who'd been holding his offense hostage. "You don't have the vertical game with Alex Smith in there, that you have with Colin Kaepernick," ESPN's Ron Jaworski observed on a media conference call this week. Kaepernick has a big-time arm and big-time weapons (Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, Mario Manningham), and has the potential to be the single biggest stretch-run fantasy quarterback difference maker. And in his first start, we didn't even get to see Kaepernick maximize his game-breaking running ability (4 rushes, 10 yards). More of that is sure to come. Facing the league's worst defense in Week 12, there are only four quarterbacks in Sunday and Monday's games who should be started over Kaepernick: Rodgers, Brees, Ryan, and Peyton Manning. ... "I felt like somebody took the handcuffs off me," Vernon Davis said following Kaepernick's Monday night start. Davis had 101 scoreless yards in his previous four games combined. Kaepernick hit him a season-high six times for 83 yards and his first touchdown since Week 3. With Rob Gronkowski out until Week 16 at soonest, only Jimmy Graham will be a better weekly tight end play than Davis going forward.
Kaepernick's updated target distribution on the year: Davis 13, Crabtree 8, Kyle Williams 7, Randy Moss and Manningham 6, Delanie Walker 4, Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter 2. ... So the target stats suggest Davis is Kaepernick's favorite target. As he should be. ... Make no mistake, though, San Francisco's offense will continue to be run-based. The 49ers' pass attempt totals will stay among the lowest in football, so still think of Crabtree as a WR2/3 with a touch more upside. Moss and Manningham remain WR4/5s. ... Crabtree has the most favorable Week 12 matchup in the 49ers' receiver corps. A slot man on all passing downs, Crabtree should have his way with Saints special teamer-turned-slot corner Elbert Mack in this game. Moss and Manningham will deal with LCB Jabari Greer and RCB Patrick Robinson outside. ... Gore's workload will remain voluminous, and Kaepernick's ability to extend the defense with vertical throws, as well as freeze opposing front sevens due to his running threat on boot-action plays, projects to increase the efficiency of the running game as a whole. Down the stretch, Hunter should be rostered in all leagues as a possible borderline RB1 in the event of a Gore injury. And Gore's yards-per-carry average will rise.
The Saints' offense is a different, at times unstoppable animal with Jimmy Graham in the starting lineup. Since returning from his mid-October ankle injury, Graham is averaging 6.5 catches for 77.5 yards with five touchdowns in four games. "He controls the middle of the field," Jaworski explained on Mike & Mike. "He can run deep routes. He controls the perimeter area of the field. ... And you can just see the confidence Drew Brees has when he has Jimmy Graham." The 49ers' defense has been tough on tight ends -- 30th in fantasy points allowed -- but matchups don't matter for Graham. With Rob Gronkowski's regular season likely over, Graham is a virtual lock to lead all tight ends in scoring the rest of the way. ... Marques Colston's yardage has sunk since Graham returned, but he's still the No. 2 pass option in the NFL's No. 2 pass offense. He's going to be fine. In last January's Saints-49ers playoff game, Colston beat up on Niners slot CB Carlos Rogers and RCB Tarell Brown for nine receptions, 136 yards, and a touchdown. ... Speaking of which, Brees hung 462 yards and four touchdowns on Vic Fangio's defense in the aforementioned postseason clash. Brees has a 51:14 TD-to-INT ratio over his last 16 games. The 49ers' No. 2 pass-defense ranking matters not in Week 12. Brees couldn't be more locked in.
Consistency is elusive for Lance Moore as the No. 3 or 4 option in New Orleans' passing game, but he's the No. 14 overall fantasy receiver over the past five weeks. He's a boom-or-bust play who has boomed more often than not lately. ... Over his last four games, Devery Henderson has two combined catches for 11 yards. He's worthless in fantasy. ... Practicing fully, Darren Sproles is finally, truly due back from his broken hand in Week 12 after being scratched before game time in last week's win at Oakland. Sproles has averaged six receptions per game when healthy this year and needs to be reinserted into PPR lineups. He's more of a flex option in standard formats. ... As explained in this space last week, Sproles' presence shouldn't have a major impact on the Mark Ingram and Chris Ivory early-down rotation because Sproles has been used so sparingly as a ball carrier. Sproles' return could send Pierre Thomas' fantasy appeal straight into the gutter, though. It's arguably there already. A single-digit touch-per-week player since coach Joe Vitt came off suspension, Thomas is reaching the point of drop-worthy in fantasy leagues. ... Matching up with San Francisco's No. 6 run defense makes Ingram a dicier play than he was the past two weeks, but he's still likely to receive any goal-line chances, keeping Ingram on the flex radar in TD-heavy leagues. The 2011 first-round pick has 28 carries compared to Ivory's 15 over the last two games.
Score Projection: 49ers 28, Saints 27
Sunday Night Football
Green Bay @ NY Giants
The Giants' promise to increase explosive first-round pick David Wilson's backfield role has been a long time coming. "We need to get him more involved," coach Tom Coughlin said following New York's Week 11 bye. "And we will get him more involved." Ahmad Bradshaw will remain the lead back with Andre Brown second in line for carries, but more work for Wilson would bode poorly for the veterans' fantasy outlook. Facing Green Bay's top-11 run defense, Bradshaw is a mid-range RB2 play. Goal-line back Brown's workloads make him no more than a back-end RB3. Wilson should be rostered in 12-14 team leagues to see what happens. ... The bye couldn't have come at a better time for a Giants team that looked fatigued in recent games. Martellus Bennett (knee), Hakeem Nicks (foot, knee), and Eli Manning (tired arm) should all benefit. Although Manning's Weeks 8-10 performances make him an untrustworthy Week 12 fantasy play, he certainly has a favorable matchup. Green Bay ranks 21st against the pass and will again be without top pass rusher Clay Matthews (hamstring). With just two touchdown passes and a 213-yard average over his past five games, Manning should still be considered a QB2 until his box score stats pick up.
Forward-looking fantasy owners who bought low on Nicks during his midseason production lull should be itching to play him after an off week. (And hoping Eli cooperates.) Nicks combined for 14 catches, 253 yards, and four TDs in last year's two meetings with Green Bay. Not even listed on the Week 12 injury report, a healthy Nicks is capable of beating up on Packers top CB Tramon Williams. ... Victor Cruz's numbers dipped along with Manning's during the cold streak, but the slot receiver remains on pace for 96 catches, 1,189 yards, and 11 touchdowns. He's the No. 8 overall fantasy wideout and an every-week starter. ... Domenik Hixon didn't practice this week due to an ankle injury, which is a potential long-term concern considering he's coming off a bye. If Hixon can't face the Packers, rookie Rueben Randle will stand in as New York's third receiver. ... Green Bay has been stingy against tight ends, holding them to the sixth fewest fantasy points through ten games. Bennett is still an interesting Week 12 start because Matthews' absence projects to free him up for increased pass routes in a game that could be high scoring should Eli rediscover form. Desperate Rob Gronkowski owners could do far worse for a plug-and-play fantasy tight end.
Aaron Rodgers collected a 6:2 TD-to-INT ratio and 633 passing yards in last season's two Giants meetings. New York is shakier in pass defense this year, so Rodgers has an even more attractive matchup as the clubs re-meet. It can't hurt that white-hot Rodgers has 24 touchdowns and just four interceptions over his last seven games. He's also due for a rushing score or two. ... The Giants rank 25th in pass defense and are vulnerable to the long ball. Their 8.1 yards-per-pass attempt average is the fourth most generous clip in football, and only four teams have permitted more 20-plus-yard completions. Jordy Nelson is Green Bay's premier vertical receiver. ... Rotoworld preseason favorite Randall Cobb opened the season as a backup. He's now the best player, save Rodgers, in the Packers' juggernaut offense. Cobb is the No. 13 overall fantasy wideout on the year, and No. 4 behind only Brandon Marshall, Calvin Johnson, and Vincent Jackson over the past three weeks. That is truly elite company. In perhaps the biggest on-paper mismatch of Week 12, Cobb will square off with frequently burned Giants rookie slot CB Jayron Hosley. ... James Jones may fall back toward WR3 value with Nelson healthy, but he's never a bad bet for touchdowns. Look for the Giants to stick perceived top CB Corey Webster on Nelson, allowing Jones to deal with Prince Amukamara. Jones has a big physical advantage on him.
James Starks is averaging a below-replacement-level 3.21 yards per carry on the season, and Packers coach Mike McCarthy openly discussed increasing Alex Green's role again this week. Particularly with desperation-inducing bye weeks out of the way, Green Bay's backfield has become a fantasy situation to write off completely. McCarthy appears poised to resume an unpredictable "hot-hand" approach, and Cedric Benson (Lisfranc) may not play again this year. ... Jermichael Finley has been such a poor football player over the past two years that it would be awfully difficult to think he's suddenly "back" after catching three balls for 66 yards and a touchdown in Week 11. Finley does have a favorable matchup against a Giants defense allowing the third most receptions and fourth most yards to tight ends. Finley has plenty of talent and appears to be set up for Week 12 success, if Rodgers is willing to throw him the ball. Of course, starting Finley against the Giants could also be chalked up as "chasing last week's points." Start the underachiever at your own risk.
Score Projection: Packers 30, Giants 24
Monday Night Football
Carolina @ Philadelphia
As of Wednesday, LeSean McCoy (concussion) wasn't feeling well enough to attend the Eagles' facility. He was at home, still experiencing headaches and will not play on Monday Night Football. A Matchups column-recommended stash the past several weeks, rookie Bryce Brown will start against the Panthers' No. 20 run defense. Although Brown had a tumultuous, largely unproductive college career, he ran a 4.37 forty time at 6-foot, 223 during his March Pro Day and has picked up the pro game quickly. Lapping incumbent Dion Lewis and fellow rookie Chris Polk to be Philadelphia's No. 2 back, Brown has rushed 32 times for 141 yards (4.41 YPC) this season and will also play on passing downs versus Carolina. He's a high-upside RB2 play in Week 12. ... The Philadelphia Inquirer expects Lewis to "see a few carries" Monday night as a shiftier change-of-pace back behind Brown. Lewis isn't a fantasy option. ... Michael Vick (concussion) has progressed enough that he seems likely to be available for Week 13, but Nick Foles will get another start despite last week's debacle. Foles' target distribution on the season: DeSean Jackson 16, Jeremy Maclin 14, Riley Cooper 12, McCoy and Brent Celek 10, Clay Harbor 9, Stanley Havili 5, Damaris Johnson 4.
The strength of Carolina's defense is pass rush. The Panthers rank in the top 11 in sacks and can bring heat both off the edge (LE Charles Johnson 8.5 sacks, RE Greg Hardy 7 sacks) and up the middle (DT Dwan Edwards 5 sacks). This team brings a lot more pass rush than the Redskins club Foles faced in his first start, which could be a major problem for Foles behind the Eagles' porous offensive line. A matchup with Carolina's No. 17 pass defense doesn't appear daunting on paper, but Foles ranks low among Week 12 QB2s. ... Foles couldn't get the ball to the perimeter against Washington, targeting Jackson and Maclin 12 times combined and generating two completions for five yards. Jackson remains difficult to bench because he offers so much big-play potential, but starting Maclin would require a leap of faith following his Week 11 goose egg. ... The Panthers have allowed the tenth most fantasy points to tight ends, but Celek may spend much of this game helping Philly's inept offensive tackles block Hardy and Johnson. At surface level, Celek does not appear to be an attractive fantasy play. ... Cooper stood in as the Eagles' third receiver against the Redskins and emerged from the game with knee inflammation. He's not on the Week 12 fantasy radar. ... Usual slot man Jason Avant missed Week 11 with a hamstring injury and has been targeted once by Foles this season. Avant didn't even have fantasy value when Vick was healthy.
Is the Eagles' defense still playing hard? It sure didn't look like it in last Sunday's embarrassing, 31-6 loss to Washington. Philadelphia surrendered four passing touchdowns, each in a different way, and got gashed on the ground for 169 yards on 34 carries (4.97 YPC). No. 12 overall fantasy quarterback Cam Newton's season has been disappointing after last year's top-five finish, but this is an inviting matchup. Defenses must tackle well to stop Newton on the run, and Philadelphia is one of the league's worst tackling teams. ... The Eagles sometimes play matchups at corner, using usual LCB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie against smaller deep threats and RCB Nnamdi Asomugha versus bigger possession receivers. If they don't on Monday night, Steve Smith will give Asomugha matchup fits all game. Asomugha's recovery speed has evaporated at age 31, and he hasn't been pressing at the line with any hint of confidence. When receivers get by Asomugha's jam, they're into the open field and gone. Start Smith in Week 12 and hope Eagles DC Todd Bowles leaves Asomugha on him. ... If Philadelphia "plays sides" at cornerback, which is realistically what they most frequently do, Brandon LaFell will deal with top cover guy Rodgers-Cromartie. DRC is hardly a shutdown cornerback, but it wouldn't be a great matchup for LaFell.
Philadelphia has allowed an average of 5.2 receptions for 57 yards to tight ends over the past five weeks, including two touchdowns. While this is a middling matchup for Greg Olsen on paper, the Eagles are weak at safety and hardly have a juggernaut linebacker corps. Olsen is a low-end TE1 option. ... Carolina's backfield distribution has been maddeningly unpredictable, but Jonathan Stewart put himself back on the flex-play radar in Week 11 by gaining 73 yards on 17 touches versus Tampa Bay, and scoring a second-quarter touchdown on a goal-line run. Pro Football Focus charted Stewart with 46 snaps compared to DeAngelo Williams' 16 and Mike Tolbert's 21 (14 as a blocker). As to whether the Panthers will stick with Stewart as a feature back, your guess is as good as mine. The Eagles rank 19th against the run, so the matchup is there for the taking. ... Williams has received double-digit touches in one of his last six games. He'd need a Stewart injury to be even remotely start-able in fantasy leagues. And as Williams showed when Stewart was hurt early in the season, even then there would be no guarantees for quality box-score stats.
Score Projection: Panthers 27, Eagles 13