Know Your Running Backs

Running Backs

Bryce Brown, Eagles - Brown is owned in roughly a third of Yahoo leagues because too many fantasy owners lacked the savvy to pick him up in anticipation of a dream matchup last week. Showing a size/speed combination that made Jonathan Stewart appear to be running in quicksand by comparison, Brown produced the best game by an Eagles back all season. He’s the fourth-youngest back in history with a touchdown run of 60+ yards. Coach Andy Reid confirmed after the game that LeSean McCoy (concussion) has yet to even pass his baseline test. Any player still experiencing symptoms more than 72 hours after a head injury should be considered out indefinitely. I expect Brown to start again at Dallas, and McCoy is no lock to return in Week 14.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Knowshon Moreno, Broncos - So much for that three-man committee. Despite protestations from the contrary by coach John Fox, playmaking rookie Ronnie Hillman isn’t trusted in pass protection or between the tackles. Moreno joins Jonathan Dwyer as healthy scratches that have been immediately plugged in as the feature back following an injury to the starter. Moreno operated as a true every-down back at Kansas City, consistently moving the chains and running more decisively than in previous seasons. While Moreno does have a plum opportunity to keep the job for the remainder of the season, Hillman and Lance Ball will threaten his workload if he struggles against the Bucs’ No. 1 run defense this week.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Michael Bush, Bears - The dictionary definition of a fantasy handcuff for half a decade now, Bush is owned in just over half of Yahoo leagues. Although Matt Forte’s ankle injury isn’t expected to keep him out long term, his status for this week versus the Seahawks is in question. After failing to allow 100 rushing yards in a game through six weeks, Seattle is surrendering an average of 155 per on the ground over the past five games. It’s not a bad matchup for a three-down back who would likely touch the ball 20-22 times.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Beanie Wells, Cardinals - Still owned in less than half of Yahoo leagues, Wells should be picked up after picking up a pair of touchdowns against the Rams. He’s going to remain a low-end RB2/flex option behind a lousy offensive line, but the Week 13 matchup is promising against a Jets defense allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs. Keep expectations low.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

DeAngelo Williams, Panthers - Jonathan Stewart sat out the second half of Monday’s game after re-injuring the same right ankle that was a problem in the preseason. Coach Ron Rivera will wait to see how the ankle reacts to treatment before making a determination on Stewart’s Week 13 status. Williams managed just 19 yards on 10 second-half carries, dropping his disappointing season per-carry average to 3.2. While the Panthers have an inviting matchup at a Kansas City defense allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to backs, Williams will be no more than a flex option.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

Rashad Jennings, Jaguars - Coach Mike Mularkey commended Jalen Parmele for dragging his leg through the hole while attempting to play through a groin injury last week. The injury leaves Parmele highly questionable for Week 13, and Maurice Jones-Drew is expected to miss at least one more game. Jennings and his 2.8 YPC average will likely be thrust back into the starting lineup against a Bills defense that has allowed 95.5 rushing yards per over the last four games, improving from 234.3 over the previous four.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

David Wilson, Giants - The rookie’s much talked about opportunity will finally arrive with Andre Brown done for the regular season. Wilson is a good bet to handle Brown’s eight touches per game, but isn’t a good bet for goal-line duties. His value lies in ascending to the backup role behind one of the most injury-prone starters in the league.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

Jacquizz Rodgers, Falcons - Quizz has played more snaps than Michael Turner in back-to-back games, earning double-digit carries in Week 12 for just the second time this season. Rodgers also swiped a short-yardage opportunity that turned into a 5-yard touchdown and made free defenders miss in open space on several plays. Amid speculation that Turner’s role will be scaled back, Rodgers should be locked into flex value going forward.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

Robert Turbin, Seahawks - Like Shane Vereen with the Pats, Turbin should be owned in all 12-team leagues as a playmaking handcuff to a fantasy RB1. Turbin played every third down at Miami, showing an impressive burst to the edge. If Marshawn Lynch or Stevan Ridley goes down, the backup would have solid RB2 value at worst.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

Watch List: Ben Tate, Bilal Powell, Shane Vereen, Toby Gerhart,  Bernard Pierce, Evan Royster, Cedric Peerman, Cedric Benson, James Starks, Alex Green, Brandon Jacobs, LaMichael James

Even with Justin Forsett playing well on Thanksgiving, Tate is the Arian Foster handcuff once he’s healthy -- which should finally be this week. … Powell is stealing red-zone looks from Shonn Greene. … Vereen, Gerhart, Pierce, Royster, and Peerman should be owned as handcuffs. … Jacobs and James could split backup duties with Kendall Hunter on crutches.

Cut Bait: Pierre Thomas, Donald Brown, LaRod Stephens-Howling, Lance Dunbar, Isaac Redman, Danny Woodhead, Ronnie Brown

All are low-upside timeshare backs with dwindling roles. Add high-upside handcuffs in their place.

For the second straight week, there are freely available assets at running back. Fantasy owners and waiver wranglers can get use to this after a running-back drought throughout the first half of the season. 

 

If Bryce Brown remains available (owned in just 34 percent of Yahoo leagues), he's the No. 1 recommendation this week. LeSean McCoy is stuck in Phase I of the concussion program, has yet to pass his baseline tests and was still experiencing symptoms over the weekend. He's not expected to be available for Week 13 and is no lock to return the following week. As a general rule, we can consider any player out indefinitely if he's still experiencing symptoms 48-72 hours after a head injury. You saw what Brown's unique size/speed package could deliver Monday night. Pick him and plug him into your lineup at Dallas if he's still on the wire.

 

In any league where the owners are still paying attention, Knowshon Moreno is the top candidate after Ronnie Hillman and Lance Ball went from significant Week 11 roles to benchwarmers in Week 12. All indications out of Denver last week suggested Hillman would be the lead back in a committee attack.

 

Coach John Fox threw fantasy owners a curveball, however, turning healthy scratch Moreno into a three-down workhorse to see if he could maintain even a passing resemblance to Willis McGahee between the tackles and in protection. Moreno moved the chains and ran more decisively than we've seen since his rookie season. The matchup is daunting this week against the Bucs' top-ranked run defense, but Moreno has the opportunity to hold onto the feature back job for the remainder of the season. 

 

Update: Coach Mike Tomlin has promoted Jonathan Dwyer to starter while demoting Rashard Mendenhall to third on the depth chart. If Dwyer is available, he would be third on this list behind Brown and Moreno.

 

On to the players. Here is how I rank the top players at each position as we head into Week 13. Full write-ups of each player are below. 

Quarterbacks
Colin Kaepernick
Chad Henne
Jake Locker
Sam Bradford
Colt McCoy

Running Backs
Bryce Brown
Knowshon Moreno
Michael Bush
Beanie Wells
DeAngelo Williams
Rashad Jennings
David Wilson
Jacquizz Rodgers
Robert Turbin

Wide Receivers
Pierre Garcon
Ryan Broyles
T.Y. Hilton
Brandon Stokley
Julian Edelman
Mohamed Sanu
Dwayne Harris / Cole Beasley
Chris Givens

Tight Ends
Dustin Keller
Marcedes Lewis
Dallas Clark
Rob Housler
Dennis Pitta

Team Defense
Jets
Panthers
Bengals
Browns

Quarterbacks

Colin Kaepernick, 49ers - Lazy fantasy owners are playing havoc with owner percentage. Kaepernick is a borderline QB1 thanks to his legs and ability to stretch defenses, but he’s owned in just a third of Yahoo leagues. Excelling on third downs and throws of 20+ yards, Kaepernick has posted the second-highest QBR rating through a player’s first two starts over the last five seasons. Coach Jim Harbaugh has been predictably non-committal on his Week 13 starter at St. Louis. Nothing Harbs does will surprise me, but I suspect he will continue to ride the hot hand.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Chad Henne, Jaguars - Averaging 308 yards and three touchdowns in two games, Henne has a shot at QB1 value versus an easy schedule (@BUF, NYJ, @MIA, NE, @TEN) the rest of the way. The difference between Henne and Blaine Gabbert has been downfield aggressiveness and efficiency, taking advantage of the talents of Cecil Shorts, Justin Blackmon, and Marcedes Lewis. Whereas Gabbert averaged 11.2 yards per attempt and 40.4 percent completion rate on throws of 15+ yards, Henne has averaged 19.9 per and 57.1 percent.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

Jake Locker, Titans - Coach Mike Munchak surprisingly fired coordinator Chris Palmer, promoting highly regarded QBs guru Dowell Loggains to chief play-caller. The Titans want more creativity and imagination from their passing attack, and Loggains is viewed as an intelligent up-and-comer. It’s worth noting that Kerry Collins’ three best games of the 2010 season came in December when Loggains took on more responsibility with Mike Heimerdinger battling cancer. Locker is worth a speculative add to see if Loggains makes a noticeable difference in play-calling and scheming.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

Sam Bradford, Rams - The boxscore is misleading. Bradford threw for just 205 yards at Arizona, but it was one of the best performances of his career. Eschewing short-to-intermediate throws, Bradford attacked relentlessly downfield to the tune of 12.1 YPA and 25.6 yards per completion. While he should get a healthier Danny Amendola for a dream playoff schedule (@BUF, MIN, @TB), Bradford is tough to recommend for Week 13 versus the 49ers.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Colt McCoy, Browns - Going through the league’s concussion protocol, Brandon Weeden’s status is up in the air for Week 13. Concussed quarterbacks have had a hard time gaining clearance for the next game in previous weeks. Should McCoy get the nod, he would have an excellent matchup against a Raiders defense allowing the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. He’s only a deep-league option.

Recommendation: Worth a look in two-quarterback leagues.

Cut Bait: Brandon Weeden, Charlie Batch

Weeden’s play has fallen off after a promising stretch in October. He’s questionable for Week 13 with a concussion. … Batch is brutal. The Steelers should have never backed up an injury-prone starter with a brittle backup and an ancient third-stringer.

Running Backs

Bryce Brown, Eagles - Brown is owned in roughly a third of Yahoo leagues because too many fantasy owners lacked the savvy to pick him up in anticipation of a dream matchup last week. Showing a size/speed combination that made Jonathan Stewart appear to be running in quicksand by comparison, Brown produced the best game by an Eagles back all season. He’s the fourth-youngest back in history with a touchdown run of 60+ yards. Coach Andy Reid confirmed after the game that LeSean McCoy (concussion) has yet to even pass his baseline test. Any player still experiencing symptoms more than 72 hours after a head injury should be considered out indefinitely. I expect Brown to start again at Dallas, and McCoy is no lock to return in Week 14.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Knowshon Moreno, Broncos - So much for that three-man committee. Despite protestations from the contrary by coach John Fox, playmaking rookie Ronnie Hillman isn’t trusted in pass protection or between the tackles. Moreno joins Jonathan Dwyer as healthy scratches that have been immediately plugged in as the feature back following an injury to the starter. Moreno operated as a true every-down back at Kansas City, consistently moving the chains and running more decisively than in previous seasons. While Moreno does have a plum opportunity to keep the job for the remainder of the season, Hillman and Lance Ball will threaten his workload if he struggles against the Bucs’ No. 1 run defense this week.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Michael Bush, Bears - The dictionary definition of a fantasy handcuff for half a decade now, Bush is owned in just over half of Yahoo leagues. Although Matt Forte’s ankle injury isn’t expected to keep him out long term, his status for this week versus the Seahawks is in question. After failing to allow 100 rushing yards in a game through six weeks, Seattle is surrendering an average of 155 per on the ground over the past five games. It’s not a bad matchup for a three-down back who would likely touch the ball 20-22 times.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Beanie Wells, Cardinals - Still owned in less than half of Yahoo leagues, Wells should be picked up after picking up a pair of touchdowns against the Rams. He’s going to remain a low-end RB2/flex option behind a lousy offensive line, but the Week 13 matchup is promising against a Jets defense allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs. Keep expectations low.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

DeAngelo Williams, Panthers - Jonathan Stewart sat out the second half of Monday’s game after re-injuring the same right ankle that was a problem in the preseason. Coach Ron Rivera will wait to see how the ankle reacts to treatment before making a determination on Stewart’s Week 13 status. Williams managed just 19 yards on 10 second-half carries, dropping his disappointing season per-carry average to 3.2. While the Panthers have an inviting matchup at a Kansas City defense allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to backs, Williams will be no more than a flex option.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

Rashad Jennings, Jaguars - Coach Mike Mularkey commended Jalen Parmele for dragging his leg through the hole while attempting to play through a groin injury last week. The injury leaves Parmele highly questionable for Week 13, and Maurice Jones-Drew is expected to miss at least one more game. Jennings and his 2.8 YPC average will likely be thrust back into the starting lineup against a Bills defense that has allowed 95.5 rushing yards per over the last four games, improving from 234.3 over the previous four.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

David Wilson, Giants - The rookie’s much talked about opportunity will finally arrive with Andre Brown done for the regular season. Wilson is a good bet to handle Brown’s eight touches per game, but isn’t a good bet for goal-line duties. His value lies in ascending to the backup role behind one of the most injury-prone starters in the league.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

Jacquizz Rodgers, Falcons - Quizz has played more snaps than Michael Turner in back-to-back games, earning double-digit carries in Week 12 for just the second time this season. Rodgers also swiped a short-yardage opportunity that turned into a 5-yard touchdown and made free defenders miss in open space on several plays. Amid speculation that Turner’s role will be scaled back, Rodgers should be locked into flex value going forward.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

Robert Turbin, Seahawks - Like Shane Vereen with the Pats, Turbin should be owned in all 12-team leagues as a playmaking handcuff to a fantasy RB1. Turbin played every third down at Miami, showing an impressive burst to the edge. If Marshawn Lynch or Stevan Ridley goes down, the backup would have solid RB2 value at worst.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

Watch List: Ben Tate, Bilal Powell, Shane Vereen, Toby Gerhart,  Bernard Pierce, Evan Royster, Cedric Peerman, Cedric Benson, James Starks, Alex Green, Brandon Jacobs, LaMichael James

Even with Justin Forsett playing well on Thanksgiving, Tate is the Arian Foster handcuff once he’s healthy -- which should finally be this week. … Powell is stealing red-zone looks from Shonn Greene. … Vereen, Gerhart, Pierce, Royster, and Peerman should be owned as handcuffs. … Jacobs and James could split backup duties with Kendall Hunter on crutches.

Cut Bait: Pierre Thomas, Donald Brown, LaRod Stephens-Howling, Lance Dunbar, Isaac Redman, Danny Woodhead, Ronnie Brown

All are low-upside timeshare backs with dwindling roles. Add high-upside handcuffs in their place.

Wide Receivers

Pierre Garcon, Redskins - Owned in just over half of Yahoo leagues thanks to a disappointing output in his Week 11 return, Garcon needs to be picked up in all leagues where he’s available. Robert Griffin III’s only consistent threat in the passing game threw up a 5/93/1 line at Dallas, out-running the defense on a sensational 58-yard touchdown. Garcon escaped the game without a setback and looked “good” in Monday’s practice. He has a shot at reliable WR3 value in the fantasy playoffs.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Ryan Broyles, Lions - The rookie started on Thanksgiving, playing 81-of-91 snaps versus the Texans en route to six catches for 126 yards on 12 targets. The Detroit Free Press believes Broyles has already bypassed knucklehead Titus Young on the depth chart for good. With a Wes Welker skill-set, Broyles has a fair chance to maintain WR3 value the rest of the way as Calvin Johnson draws coverage away.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

T.Y. Hilton, Colts - Ex-scout Daniel Jeremiah credits Colts GM Ryan Grigson for hitting a homerun with the third-round steal. Hilton scored on a punt return and an 8-yard pass, leaving him as fantasy’s No. 12 receiver over the past five weeks. The rookie speedster is worthy of WR3 consideration against the Lions’ shaky secondary in Week 13.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

Brandon Stokley, Broncos - Stokley is fantasy’s No. 20 receiver over the past three weeks and No. 32 over the past five. He’s never going to threaten the century mark, but Peyton Manning’s trusted slot receiver has topped 40 yards in five of the past six games. Week 13 brings a matchup against a Bucs defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points to receivers and the most passing yards in the league.

Recommendation: Worth a look as a matchup play.

Julian Edelman, Patriots - In addition to breaking off a 47-yard run, Edelman has scored on a 56-yard pass, a 22-yard fumble return, and a 68-yard punt return in the past two games. Although that playmaking ability makes him worthy of a look in deeper leagues, Edelman remains hard to trust as a weekly fantasy play. He ran just nine routes versus the Jets in Week 12.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Mohamed Sanu, Bengals - With defenses using gunner-coverage on A.J. Green near the end zone, Sanu has beaten his man for four red-zone scores in his past three games. Unfortunately, he’s topped 30 yards in a game just once all season. It’s fair to wonder if his targets will take a hit when lightning-quick slot receiver Andrew Hawkins returns from his knee injury. Sanu is going to be hard to trust as a starter outside of touchdown-heavy leagues.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Dwayne Harris / Cole Beasley - If Miles Austin (hip, hamstring) and Kevin Ogletree (concussion) sit out versus the Eagles’ burnable secondary, Harris will be worth a look in standard-scoring leagues and Beasley in PPR formats. The situation is murky, however. Austin expects to “do something” in Wednesday’s practice and Ogletree believes he will be cleared as well. I would hold off on adding Harris and/or Beasley until later in the week.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Chris Givens, Rams - Out of the doghouse following his one-game suspension, Givens consistently gained separation against the Cardinals and benefited from Sam Bradford’s willingness to attack down the field. The one caveat is that Danny Amendola (heel) played just seven snaps. If Amendola returns to practice this week, Givens’ fantasy upside takes a sizable blow.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Watch List: Damaris Johnson, Mario Manningham, Jeremy Kerley, Jarius Wright, Tiquan Underwood

Johnson is the backup to DeSean Jackson, who is out for the season with broken ribs. As badly as the Eagles have struggled through the air, Johnson is merely a deep-league option. … The 49ers passing game is a crapshoot from week-to-week, but it’s worth noting that Manningham looked more explosive at New Orleans than he has all season. … Kerley can’t be trusted on a weekly basis until he’s back to full health. … Wright’s value hinges on Percy Harvin’s availability. … Don’t bother with Underwood. He had career-highs across the board because the Falcons completely ignored him to focus on stopping Doug Martin, Vincent Jackson, and Mike Williams.

Cut Bait: Titus Young, Kendall Wright, Nate Washington, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Emmanuel Sanders

Young may have lost his starting job to Ryan Broyles for the rest of the season. … Wright and Washington are exactly the kind of low-upside WR5 options that should be dropped for high-upside RB handcuffs such as Robert Turbin or Bernard Pierce. … Ditto DHB. … Sanders’ value is on the wane with Antonio Brown due back in Week 13.

Tight Ends

Dustin Keller, Jets - Keller laid an egg two weeks ago, which makes him no different than any other tight end in the fantasy landscape. Outside of that disappointment, though, Keller has averaged a healthy 5.5/68/0.5 stat line over the past five games. That production puts the Jets’ most effective offensive player on the TE1 radar going forward.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars - With Chad Henne under center, Lewis produced his best fantasy game in two years versus the Texans and his season-high in yards against the Titans. Henne is picking defenses apart over the middle, down the field, and in the red zone, which means the 2010 Pro Bowl tight end is relevant in fantasy circles again.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

Dallas Clark, Buccaneers - We noted last week that Clark was finally starting to catch passes within the framework of the offense and not just in the two-minute drill. The veteran responded with a season-high 65 yards and is now ninth in fantasy points over the past five weeks. Clark heads west to face a Broncos defense allowing the second-most fantasy points to tight ends.

Recommendation: Worth a look as a matchup play.

Rob Housler, Cardinals - Rookie Ryan Lindley had success on intermediate balls to Housler over the middle, but was brutal outside the numbers and down the field. The result was career-highs across the board in targets (11), receptions (8), and yards (82) against the Rams, leaving Housler with three games over 50 yards in the last five outings. Housler faces a Jets defense allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to tight ends.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Dennis Pitta, Ravens - The early-season star is owned in less than a third of Yahoo leagues thanks to a mid-season slump. Like 90 percent of starting tight ends, Pitta is a boom-or-bust candidate going forward. He’s been fantasy’s No. 10 tight end over the past three weeks, but has a tough matchup Sunday against the Steelers.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Watch List: Charles Clay, Jacob Tamme

More of a fullback, Clay doesn’t have tight-end eligibility in some leagues. He had 91 yards all season until posting a 6/84/1 stat line in a comeback win versus Seattle. Clay has to prove he can top 50 yards in back-to-back games before I would consider adding him to my roster. … Tamme’s production has picked up just a tad the past two games.

Cut Bait: Dwayne Allen, Scott Chandler, Brent Celek, Logan Paulsen

Allen has competition for targets with Coby Fleener (shoulder) due back this week. … Chandler simply hasn’t been consistent, and he’s facing a Jaguars defense that handles tight ends well. … Celek in 29th in fantasy points over the past three weeks as well as the past five weeks. … Paulsen has failed to top 20 yards in back-to-back games.

Team Defense

Jets - Fireman Ed may be bailing on the Jets, but we’re not. Until further notice, just start any defense facing the Cardinals. The Rams D/ST racked up 18 points last week, thanks to a pair of pick-sixes by rookie Ryan Lindley. Arizona has the fourth-most turnovers this season, allowing more points to fantasy defenses than any other team.

Recommendation: Should be owned as a matchup play.

Panthers - Carolina’s “improved” run defense was no match for Bryce Brown, but they did force three turnovers at Philadelphia. That total could be exceeded this week against a Brady Quinn-led Chiefs offense that has turned the ball over 32 times this season.

Recommendation: Worth a look as a matchup play.

Bengals - Nobody in the league gets more pass-rush pressure per snap than cat-quick DT Geno Atkins. With the defensive line bringing the heat, the Bengals have allowed an average of 9.7 points per game versus the Giants, Chiefs, and Raiders the past three weeks. They travel to San Diego to square off against turnover king Philip Rivers in Week 13.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

Browns - Coming off a whopping eight forced turnovers against the Steelers (in comparison, the Pats have eight turnovers all season), Dick Jauron’s crew faces a Raiders offense that couldn’t block the Bengals defensive line or pass the ball last week.  As a bonus, the Browns draw Brady Quinn and the Chiefs in Week 14.

Recommendation: Worth a look as a matchup play.