The Tight End Crapshoot

Wide Receivers

Chris Givens, Rams - Givens entered Week 13 as a big-play artist, producing as many catches of 30+ yards as the entire team had on 513 targets in 2009. While Givens was unable to break a homerun, it was a promising sign for Givens’ route running progress to see the rookie leading the Rams with 14 targets and 11 receptions against an elite defense. Givens has averaged 103.5 yards the past two weeks with Danny Amendola injured. He’s a viable WR3 option against a Buffalo defense allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

Josh Gordon, Browns - Gordon has gone from raw supplemental draft prospect to No. 1 receiver in 13 games, making strikes that QB Brandon Weeden has never seen “in any sport a player make so fast.” Gordon was good enough in producing a 6/116/1 stat line last week to get Raiders CB Ron Bartell benched. He has plus matchups versus the Chiefs and Redskins the next two weeks.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

Donnie Avery, Colts - Good luck picking between Avery and T.Y. Hilton on a weekly basis. Avery entered last week’s game producing fewer points per target than any full-time receiver in the league. Only three receivers ended up with more points in Week 13 while only two saw more than his 14 targets. Avery is back on the WR3 radar against a Titans defense allowing the 16th-most fantasy points to wide receivers.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

Golden Tate, Seahawks - We’ve recommended Tate several times in this space, due in large part to his impressive run-after-catch ability. With Russell Wilson producing QB1 numbers, Tate has been fantasy’s No. 15 wide receiver over the past five weeks. Here’s the conundrum in a nutshell, however: Tate’s 19 targets are the lowest of any top-40 fantasy receiver during that span. He’s going to be a boom-or-bust fantasy play during the fantasy playoffs, with tough matchups versus the Cardinals and 49ers in Weeks 14 and 16.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

Mike Thomas, Lions - Thomas is expected to take over as the starter by default opposite Calvin Johnson with Ryan Broyles out for the year and Titus Young out of commission. It’s a prime opportunity in a pass-heavy offense, but Thomas has been hard to trust as a drop-prone disappointment. Pick him up but make him prove it for a game before thinking about Thomas as a fantasy starter.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

Kendall Wright, Titans - It’s noteworthy that Wright led Titans wideouts with 10 targets and six receptions in Dowell Loggains’ first game as play-caller, but keep expectations low. Tennessee’s spread-the-wealth passing game hasn’t produced a reliable fantasy starter all season. Wright is just a borderline WR3 option against a Colts defense allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Riley Cooper, Eagles - The Eagles moved Cooper from backup split end to starting flanker when DeSean Jackson went down for the season. Cooper ended up leading the receivers in snaps last week, but managed just two catches for 31 yards at Dallas. He’s on this list due to his attractive matchups versus the Bucs and Redskins in Weeks 14 and 16.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Andrew Hawkins, Bengals - With Mohamed Sanu out, Hawkins played 72 percent of the snaps in his return after missing two games with a knee injury. He finished second to A.J. Green in targets, catches and yards, suggesting he will be the second most reliable receiver in Cincinnati the rest of the way. Hawkins is purely a deep-league option.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Watch List: Marvin Jones, Rod Streater, Louis Murphy

Jones played 88.5 percent of the snaps with Mohamed Sanu out, but managed just two catches for 20 yards. Keep an eye on his progress in deeper leagues. … Streater’s production spiked with Denarius Moore in the doghouse, but he’s unreliable for Week 14. … Murphy should move into the starting lineup with Brandon LaFell sporting a walking boot this week.

Cut Bait: Ryan Broyles, Titus Young, Brandon LaFell, Kevin Ogletree, Dwayne Harris, Cole Beasley, Santana Moss, Julian Edelman

Team Defense

Browns - Don’t look now, but the Browns are emerging as a top-10 defense. Cleveland is now 4-3 with CB Joe Haden in the lineup this season. For the first time since the 1989 season, they held the opponent under 65 yards in consecutive games during Weeks 11-12. Although the Chiefs exceeded expectations after their tragedy last weekend, they go on the road to play in the lake-effect elements this week.

Recommendation: Should be owned as a matchup play.

Bengals - Geno Atkins has emerged as the best defensive tackle in football, ranking first in pressure and sacks, second in hits, and fifth in tackles. Cincinnati now leads the NFL in sacks (39) while holding each of their last four opponents to 13 points or less. The Bengals are set to face a Cowboys offense that is starting to put it together, but a better matchup awaits versus rookie Nick Foles in Week 15.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

Lions - You don’t want to use the Lions at Green Bay in Week 14, but there’s an enticing matchup versus the trainwreck Cardinals in Week 15.

Recommendation: Worth a look as a matchup play.

Jets - If Cecil Shorts doesn’t get clearance from his concussion, Chad Henne and Montell Owens will have trouble moving the ball versus the Jets this week. Rex Ryan’s crew has a decent matchup in Week 15 versus the Titans as well. You can turn this suggestion on its ear and start either the Jaguars or the Titans against Greg McElroy.

Recommendation: Worth a look as a matchup play.

In yet another slow week for waiver wire options, it’s time for most owners to consider their priorities for the fantasy playoffs. In addition to handcuffing your star running backs and finding defenses to stream in the right matchups, a top priority is finding a solution in what has become a crapshoot at tight end.

How bleak is the landscape at tight end? Garrett Graham has more fantasy points than Jimmy Graham over the past three weeks. Kellen Davis has as many yards as Vernon Davis the past two weeks. Brandon Myers is the only tight end with more fantasy points than Marcedes Lewis and Ben Watson since Week 11.

Fantasy “experts” can’t reliably separate the No. 5 tight end from the No. 20 tight end on a weekly basis.

Looking at trends at matchups, however, we have unearthed a half-dozen intriguing options available on the waiver wire for relief during the fantasy playoffs, including Lewis and Watson. Jacob Tamme, Jared Cook, and Tony Scheffler are poised for increased offensive roles while Brent Celek has a dream schedule over the next three weeks.

On to the players. Here is how I rank the top players at each position as we head into Week 14. Full write-ups of each player are below.

Tight Ends
Marcedes Lewis
Jacob Tamme
Jared Cook
Ben Watson
Brent Celek
Tony Scheffler
Tony Moeaki

Quarterbacks
Sam Bradford
Russell Wilson
Brandon Weeden
Nick Foles
Jake Locker

Running Backs
Jonathan Dwyer

Alex Green
DeAngelo Williams
Montell Owens
Joique Bell
David Wilson
Justin Forsett
Bernard Pierce

Wide Receivers
Chris Givens
Josh Gordon
Donnie Avery
Golden Tate
Mike Thomas
Kendall Wright
Riley Cooper
Andrew Hawkins

Team Defense
Browns
Bengals
Lions
Jets

Tight Ends

Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars - How much of a crapshoot is the tight end position? Over the past three weeks, Brandon Myers is the only player with more fantasy points than Lewis’ 28.4. Jacksonville’s tight end has increased his receiving yards in each of the three games (40, 56, 68) with Chad Henne under center. Lewis could be in for an even larger share of the pie with Cecil Shorts racing against the concussion clock in Week 14 versus a Jets defense allowing the 11th-most fantasy points to tight ends.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

Jacob Tamme, Broncos - With Brandon Stokley out of the lineup last week, Tamme led the Broncos with 13 targets while hauling in nine passes for 89 yards. Tamme’s targets had been trending upwards even before Stokley’s absence. Averaging 63 yards over the past three weeks, Tamme has an excellent matchup Thursday night against a Raiders defense allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

Jared Cook, Titans - It’s no coincidence that Cook saw season-highs in snaps and targets in the first game since Dowell Loggains replaced Chris Palmer as offensive boss. Cook has a penchant for closing strong in a lost season, averaging 112 and 65 yards per over the final three games the past two years. Pick him to see if he catches lightning in a bottle for a third straight season.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

Ben Watson, Browns - Brandon Myers and Marcedes Lewis are the only tight ends with more fantasy points than Watson’s 27.3 over the past three weeks. His schedule couldn’t be much better, with the two friendliest tight-end defenses (WAS, DEN) on the schedule for Weeks 15-16. Watson’s fantasy value has been heavily dependent on short touchdowns, so keep expectations reasonable.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

Brent Celek, Eagles - We finally saw signs of life from the Eagles passing game last week, as Celek turned eight targets into seven catches for 73 yards. His production has been spotty with Nick Foles under center, but the schedule for the fantasy playoffs is made to order. The Bucs and Bengals allow the ninth- and eighth-most points to tight ends while Celek’s Week 16 opponent (Redskins) are the most generous tight-end defense in fantasy.

Recommendation: Worth a look as a matchup play.

Tony Scheffler, Lions - With Ryan Broyles (torn ACL) finished for the season and Titus Young banished to chateau bow-wow, the Lions are left with an unreliable Mike Thomas and Brian Robiskie opposite Calvin Johnson. Scheffler will effectively become the slot receiver after finishing second to Johnson in receiving yards last week. Of all tight ends on this list, Scheffler has the toughest schedule (@GB, @ARZ, ATL) during the fantasy playoffs.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Tony Moeaki, Chiefs - After spending the first half of the season concentrating on blocking, Moeaki has 40+ yards in five of the past six weeks. Although he has just one touchdown on the season, Moeaki is still 11th in fantasy points over the past three weeks. He has a prohibitive matchup versus the Browns in Week 14, but draws a Raiders defense allowing the sixth-most points to tight ends in Week 15.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Quarterbacks

Sam Bradford, Rams - Bradford comes with a Danny Amendola caveat. If the Rams’ go-to receiver isn’t healthy for Week 14, Bradford isn’t a recommended fantasy play. If Amendola does return, however, Bradford has an exploitable schedule (@BUF, MIN, @TB) against three of the 11 softest pass defenses in fantasy.

Recommendation: Worth a look as a matchup play.

Russell Wilson, Seahawks - On pace to challenge Peyton Manning’s rookie touchdown record, Wilson would top this list if not for brutal matchups in two of the next three weeks. Wilson has a passer rating over 100 in four consecutive games while throwing multiple touchdowns in six of the past seven. That streak will be tested against the Cardinals (30th-most fantasy points to QBs) and 49ers (31st-most) in Weeks 14 and 16.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

Brandon Weeden, Browns - The strong-armed Weeden got his season back on track with a 364-yard performance at Oakland in Week 13. He has juicy matchups the next two weeks against the Chiefs and Redskins, both in the top-seven for fantasy points allowed to QBs.

Recommendation: Worth a look as a matchup play.

Nick Foles, Eagles - Finally given one game of encouraging play, coach Andy Reid anointed Foles the starter for the rest of the season. His Week 14 opponent (@TB) is on pace to become the first defense in history to allow 300+ pass yards per game for a full season. Week 16 brings the Redskins, a defense surrendering even more fantasy points to QBs than the Bucs.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Jake Locker, Titans - Locker produced his second career 300-yard game in Dowell Loggains’ debut as the play-caller. He’s attempted 40 passes in a game just three times in two seasons, with two of them coming in the past two weeks. Looking for Loggains to keep passing to see what his young offense is capable of heading into 2013.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Watch List: Kevin Kolb, Greg McElroy, Tim Tebow, Brady Quinn, Joe Webb

As poorly as Ryan Lindley has played, Kolb will be back under center as soon as his ribs allow. It could be this week. … The only Jets QB with fantasy potential is Tebow. Unfortunately, the team appears to be leaning toward McElroy instead. … Make Quinn prove he can do it two games in a row. … Webb’s legs give him fantasy potential, but the Vikes don’t seem inclined to bench a struggling Christian Ponder.

Cut Bait: Michael Vick, Ryan Lindley, Mark Sanchez, Christian Ponder

Vick won’t play again this season unless Nick Foles goes down with an injury. … Lindley isn’t close to being ready for the NFL. … The Jets gained 164 yards in 10 drives under Sanchez last week compared to 152 in four drives with McElroy. … Ponder can’t be trusted in fantasy leagues if he can’t be trusted to break the 100-yard marker.

Running Backs

Jonathan Dwyer, Steelers - The destitute man’s Jerome Bettis is still owned in less than half of Yahoo leagues. The Steelers are using the rest of the season as an opportunity for Dwyer to prove he can be the long-term solution at tailback with Rashard Mendenhall due to exit free agency in 2013. Not much of an asset in the passing game, Dwyer has low-end RB2 appeal versus the Chargers, Cowboys, and Bengals in the fantasy playoffs.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

 

James Starks, Packers - Starks showed more burst than he has all season on a 22-yard touchdown run against the Vikings, but his fantasy potential is capped by the timeshare with Alex Green. Both backs are averaging 13 touches per over the past two weeks. Starks is merely a flex option for Week 14 versus the Lions.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

 

Tuesday night update: The Packers are reportedly considering injured reserve for Starks after he sustained a knee injury in Week 13. Remove Starks from waiver list and add Alex Green just below Jonathan Dwyer. Green Bay will likely sign a street free agent, but Green is the feature back for the foreseeable future.

DeAngelo Williams, Panthers - With Jonathan Stewart nursing sprains to both ankles, Williams drew the start and produced his second-best game of the season at Kansas City. The bad news is that he saw just 12 carries with Cam Newton stealing the show. Only once all season has a Panthers back topped 15 rushes in a game. Williams’ upside is capped as a low-end RB2 versus the Falcons in Week 14.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

Montell Owens, Jaguars - Maurice Jones-Drew is “very questionable” for Week 14 while Rashad Jennings is coming off a concussion. If both players sit out, special teamer Owens is expected to be the feature back with Jordan Todman and Richard Murphy as backups. Owens would be ranked in the 25-30 range against a Jets defense allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing backs.

Recommendation: Worth a look as a matchup play.

Joique Bell, Lions - Bell is averaging an eye-popping 5.7 yards on 57 carries compared to Mikel Leshoure’s 3.8 on 157 totes. Leshoure isn’t going away as a move-the-chains sustainer, but OC Scott Linehan confirmed that Bell has earned more opportunities going forward. Bell remains an appealing flex option for Weeks 14-16 against the Packers, Cardinals, and Falcons.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

David Wilson, Giants - With Andre Brown out of the lineup, the Giants are once again using Ahmad Bradshaw as a workhorse. If history is any indication, Bradshaw’s high-maintenance feet will remind the coaching staff why that’s a bad idea. Wilson should be rostered by Bradshaw owners as a lottery-ticket handcuff.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

Justin Forsett, Texans - Forsett out-played Arian Foster on an equal number of carries last week, topping 50 rushing yards for the third consecutive week. Even with Ben Tate healthy, Forsett has earned coach Gary Kubiak’s trust as the change-of-pace back. Foster owners should try to roster both Forsett and Tate, as the two would likely split touches in the event of an injury. 

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Bernard Pierce, Ravens - Pierce is your weekly reminder to handcuff your stars unless you are willing to miss out on the next Bryce Brown. Coach John Harbaugh followed through on his pledge to increase Pierce’s role as a complement to Ray Rice, allowing the rookie to handle several drives on his own last week. Pierce has no fantasy value outside of a Rice injury.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

Watch List: Robert Turbin, Ben Tate, Shane Vereen, Toby Gerhart, Evan Royster, Brandon Jacobs, Daryl Richardson

Pick up your handcuffs, drop your fifth receiver or backup quarterback.

Cut Bait: Rashard Mendenhall, Daniel Thomas

Wide Receivers

Chris Givens, Rams - Givens entered Week 13 as a big-play artist, producing as many catches of 30+ yards as the entire team had on 513 targets in 2009. While Givens was unable to break a homerun, it was a promising sign for Givens’ route running progress to see the rookie leading the Rams with 14 targets and 11 receptions against an elite defense. Givens has averaged 103.5 yards the past two weeks with Danny Amendola injured. He’s a viable WR3 option against a Buffalo defense allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

Josh Gordon, Browns - Gordon has gone from raw supplemental draft prospect to No. 1 receiver in 13 games, making strikes that QB Brandon Weeden has never seen “in any sport a player make so fast.” Gordon was good enough in producing a 6/116/1 stat line last week to get Raiders CB Ron Bartell benched. He has plus matchups versus the Chiefs and Redskins the next two weeks.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

Donnie Avery, Colts - Good luck picking between Avery and T.Y. Hilton on a weekly basis. Avery entered last week’s game producing fewer points per target than any full-time receiver in the league. Only three receivers ended up with more points in Week 13 while only two saw more than his 14 targets. Avery is back on the WR3 radar against a Titans defense allowing the 16th-most fantasy points to wide receivers.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

Golden Tate, Seahawks - We’ve recommended Tate several times in this space, due in large part to his impressive run-after-catch ability. With Russell Wilson producing QB1 numbers, Tate has been fantasy’s No. 15 wide receiver over the past five weeks. Here’s the conundrum in a nutshell, however: Tate’s 19 targets are the lowest of any top-40 fantasy receiver during that span. He’s going to be a boom-or-bust fantasy play during the fantasy playoffs, with tough matchups versus the Cardinals and 49ers in Weeks 14 and 16.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

Mike Thomas, Lions - Thomas is expected to take over as the starter by default opposite Calvin Johnson with Ryan Broyles out for the year and Titus Young out of commission. It’s a prime opportunity in a pass-heavy offense, but Thomas has been hard to trust as a drop-prone disappointment. Pick him up but make him prove it for a game before thinking about Thomas as a fantasy starter.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

Kendall Wright, Titans - It’s noteworthy that Wright led Titans wideouts with 10 targets and six receptions in Dowell Loggains’ first game as play-caller, but keep expectations low. Tennessee’s spread-the-wealth passing game hasn’t produced a reliable fantasy starter all season. Wright is just a borderline WR3 option against a Colts defense allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Riley Cooper, Eagles - The Eagles moved Cooper from backup split end to starting flanker when DeSean Jackson went down for the season. Cooper ended up leading the receivers in snaps last week, but managed just two catches for 31 yards at Dallas. He’s on this list due to his attractive matchups versus the Bucs and Redskins in Weeks 14 and 16.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Andrew Hawkins, Bengals - With Mohamed Sanu out, Hawkins played 72 percent of the snaps in his return after missing two games with a knee injury. He finished second to A.J. Green in targets, catches and yards, suggesting he will be the second most reliable receiver in Cincinnati the rest of the way. Hawkins is purely a deep-league option.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Watch List: Marvin Jones, Rod Streater, Louis Murphy

Jones played 88.5 percent of the snaps with Mohamed Sanu out, but managed just two catches for 20 yards. Keep an eye on his progress in deeper leagues. … Streater’s production spiked with Denarius Moore in the doghouse, but he’s unreliable for Week 14. … Murphy should move into the starting lineup with Brandon LaFell sporting a walking boot this week.

Cut Bait: Ryan Broyles, Titus Young, Brandon LaFell, Kevin Ogletree, Dwayne Harris, Cole Beasley, Santana Moss, Julian Edelman

Team Defense

Browns - Don’t look now, but the Browns are emerging as a top-10 defense. Cleveland is now 4-3 with CB Joe Haden in the lineup this season. For the first time since the 1989 season, they held the opponent under 65 yards in consecutive games during Weeks 11-12. Although the Chiefs exceeded expectations after their tragedy last weekend, they go on the road to play in the lake-effect elements this week.

Recommendation: Should be owned as a matchup play.

Bengals - Geno Atkins has emerged as the best defensive tackle in football, ranking first in pressure and sacks, second in hits, and fifth in tackles. Cincinnati now leads the NFL in sacks (39) while holding each of their last four opponents to 13 points or less. The Bengals are set to face a Cowboys offense that is starting to put it together, but a better matchup awaits versus rookie Nick Foles in Week 15.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

Lions - You don’t want to use the Lions at Green Bay in Week 14, but there’s an enticing matchup versus the trainwreck Cardinals in Week 15.

Recommendation: Worth a look as a matchup play.

Jets - If Cecil Shorts doesn’t get clearance from his concussion, Chad Henne and Montell Owens will have trouble moving the ball versus the Jets this week. Rex Ryan’s crew has a decent matchup in Week 15 versus the Titans as well. You can turn this suggestion on its ear and start either the Jaguars or the Titans against Greg McElroy.

Recommendation: Worth a look as a matchup play.