Matchups: No-Go for Romo?

Kansas City @ Cleveland

Good ole hindsight tells us that the Browns made a commitment to Trent Richardson as their offensive foundation player during the Week 10 bye. Whereas Richardson reached 20 carries in just 2-of-9 games before the open date, he's hit 20 in all three since while operating as an every-down workhorse. Bucking the mythical notion that rookie running backs struggle -- along with Doug Martin and Alfred Morris -- Richardson is the No. 5 overall fantasy player at his position. He's a legit RB1 squaring off with Kansas City's No. 26 run defense. ... The Browns' passing game returns from Brandon Weeden's 364-yard scorching of an uncompetitive Oakland defense to face a similarly leaky Chiefs group. Kansas City has surrendered a league-high 25 touchdown throws, and no defense permits a higher quarterback rating (103.0) against. Top CB Brandon Flowers and ILB Derrick Johnson also missed practice time this week with hamstring injuries. Weeden has sneaky two-QB league potential as a Week 14 matchup play. "I think he's improved," NFL Films' Greg Cosell observed of Weeden this week. "I think that he's a solid NFL quarterback, with a good arm and a chance to be a little better than a solid NFL quarterback."

No team has been thrown against less than Kansas City in 2012, yet it's still permitted the 12th most 20-plus-yard pass plays in football, and the third most 40-plus-yard completions. Particularly with Flowers banged up, the Chiefs are going to be highly susceptible to vertical shot plays. The intermediate to deep sections of the field are where Josh Gordon butters his bread. "I think he's a deceptive vertical speed guy," Cosell said of Gordon. "I think he's a speed-cut receiver. He's not a quick in-and-out-of-break guy, but there's a lot of receivers like that in the NFL. Even great receivers. ... I think that he's got a chance to be a pretty good receiver. The kid can run." Gordon is a high-upside WR3 play in Week 14. ... Weeden's target distribution since Cleveland's Week 10 bye: Gordon 21, Ben Watson 20, Richardson 17, Greg Little 13, Jordan Cameron 9, Mohamed Massaquoi 8. ... Beyond rookies T-Rich and Gordon, Watson is the only Browns skill-position guy seeing the ball regularly enough to be taken seriously in fantasy lineup decisions. On Sunday, he'll face a Chiefs defense allowing the NFL's third fewest catches and fifth fewest yards to tight ends.

Brady Quinn's surprisingly competent Week 13 performance has created more questions than answers. Can he keep it up? Is there even a chance? Quinn's combined career stats coming off 200-plus-yard games -- he's done it four times before -- are 53-of-120 (44.2 percent) for 536 yards (4.47 YPA), and a 0:1 TD-to-INT ratio. Throughout Quinn's six-year career, he has consistently proven incapable of sustaining a passing attack. Now facing an underrated and quietly surging Browns defense on the road, I think the best approach for fantasy owners is to chalk up last week as a fluke. Dwayne Bowe (4-64 in Week 13) will see Joe Haden's shadow coverage in Week 14 and is no better than an unreliable WR3 with lots of downside. Tony Moeaki returns from his season-best game (4-54-1) to face a Cleveland defense permitting the sixth fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Jon Baldwin (2-37-1) has not cleared 40 receiving yards since September. Slot receiver Dexter McCluster (2-16) has been a non-factor regardless of how well Quinn has played.

Amid the Chiefs' 2012 buffoonery, Jamaal Charles has stood out as a reliable big-play contributor and legit offensive weapon. And to the Kansas City coaching staff's credit, they've been feeding him the rock with regularity over the past month. Charles has received 20 or more touches in four consecutive games, and broken off at least 100 total yards in all four. His yards-per-carry average across that span is 4.68. Black-hole back Peyton Hillis vultured a first-quarter goal-line touchdown in last week's upset of Carolina, but for the most part has stayed out of Charles' way. The Browns rank a respectable 16th against the run and have played even better than that statistic indicates in recent games, but Charles has delivered borderline RB1 stats in more difficult matchups than this one all season. He should be locked into fantasy lineups every week. Hillis is not worth owning.

Score Prediction: Browns 23, Chiefs 14

Philadelphia @ Tampa Bay

Josh Freeman's production has slowed a bit off his red-hot midseason stretch, but his Week 14 matchup is ripe for the picking. "The two corners in the secondary have shut it down," NFL Network's Deion Sanders observed of Philadelphia's defensive backfield this week. "They're not covering anybody." Since the Week 7 firing of DC Juan Castillo, the Eagles have allowed opposing passers to complete 116-of-152 throws (76.3 percent) for 1,319 yards (8.68 YPA), 16 touchdowns, and no interceptions. Quarterbacks are cutting up Philly's pass "defense" like a hot knife through butter. ... Vincent Jackson will spend most of this game in RCB Nnamdi Asomugha's coverage, while Mike Williams draws LCB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Shake off V-Jax's Week 13 shutdown by Champ Bailey and start him as a top-ten receiver against declining Asomugha. ... Rodgers-Cromartie still can't tackle a lick -- see Dez Bryant's second touchdown last week -- but he's at least held his own in coverage and will likely make it difficult for Williams to get open. Averaging 55 yards over his last seven games, Williams is a viable, if somewhat risky WR3 in Week 14.

Dallas Clark has three touchdowns in his last four games, but he's prone to inconsistency as a 54-percent player on offense. OC Mike Sullivan won't increase Clark's role, either, because he gets blown up as a blocker. The Eagles rank 19th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, so the matchup isn't attractive enough to springboard Clark onto the TE1 radar. ... The Bucs are a virtual lock to generate consistent ball movement Sunday because Philly's defense is so bad. This game has sneaky shootout potential. A high-scoring affair versus a bad team could be just the recipe Doug Martin needs to bust his recent yards-per-carry slump. Martin has been held to 106 yards on 39 carries (2.72 YPC) the past two weeks. The Eagles rank 18th against the run and in no way present an imposing matchup for Tampa Bay's every-down back. Start Martin as a top-ten RB1.

Bryce Brown has now fumbled four times on 75 career carries, but the Philly coaching staff's commitment to its seventh-round pick is promising. Even after last week's back-breaking fourth-quarter fumble-six at Dallas, Brown was left in the game and played every remaining snap, including a two-point conversion attempt down 38-33. Brown runs with special explosiveness, racking up 347 yards and four touchdowns on 43 carries (8.07 YPC) in his last eight quarters of action. Brown is an every-down back oozing big-play ability and should be locked into Week 14 fantasy lineups despite a matchup with Tampa's No. 1 run defense. One potential positive for Brown's outlook would be the absence of Bucs DT Roy Miller (concussion). A run-stopping specialist at nose tackle, Miller has enjoyed a bit of a breakout season in a contract year. ... Nick Foles finally played competently and under control in the Cowboys loss, connecting on three 20-plus-yard pass plays and giving Philly a downfield threat to complement Brown's dominant rushing attack. Even in Foles' previous poor performances, he showed an innate ability to manipulate the pocket with subtle movements, evading the rush. Foles is still a promising talent with a big arm, and he's worth a look in two-quarterback leagues against the Bucs' last-ranked pass defense.

Foles' updated target distribution on the season: Jeremy Maclin 26, Brent Celek 21, Riley Cooper 19, DeSean Jackson 17, Brown 12, Clay Harbor 11, Damaris Johnson 7, Stanley Havili and Jason Avant 6. ... Maclin's production has underwhelmed the past three weeks, but he'll be a high-upside WR3 with Foles coming on strong in a mouth-watering matchup. Fantasy owners should not write Maclin off. ... Avant (4-79) and Celek (7-73) were Philadelphia's leading receivers in Week 13 for what appeared to be game plan-specific reasons. The Eagles identified a Dallas defense missing both inside linebackers as vulnerable over the middle and attacked with its tight end and slot receiver. The Bucs, on the other hand, are strong up the middle but susceptible on the perimeter after losing both starting corners, RCB Eric Wright to suspension and LCB Aqib Talib to trade. Look for Maclin to be heavily involved at Tampa, while Avant and Celek take more of a backseat.

Score Prediction: Buccaneers 27, Eagles 21

NY Jets @ Jacksonville

The Jets this week decided to reinsert Mark Sanchez as their starting quarterback after yanking him in the third quarter of last Sunday's game at Arizona. Greg McElroy led a game-winning TD drive against the Cardinals, but the Jets operate on a zero-accountability policy and have turned back to their faux-franchise passer. To the Jets' credit, however, they're keeping Sanchez on a short leash. "There was a serious difference of opinion about what to do," ESPN's Sal Paolantonio reported Wednesday, hours after coach Rex Ryan recommitted to Sanchez. "He said that if Mark Sanchez struggled against Jacksonville, he would 'absolutely' bench Sanchez just like he did last week. ... It sounds like (Sanchez) has a very short leash and Rex Ryan is ready to pull the plug." Ryan also told both the Jacksonville and New York medias that Tim Tebow -- not McElroy -- will be the Jets' backup this week. Potential in-game quarterback musical chairs, and a complete lack of upside even if Sanchez does last four quarters, ought to render Jets pass catchers hands-off in Week 14 fantasy lineup decisions. ... Dustin Keller might be the one guy worth a look, but Keller suffered a significant ankle sprain against the Cardinals and has been ineffective when trying to play at less than 100 percent. The Jaguars also allow the fifth fewest fantasy points to tight ends.

The Jets' run game has deteriorated into a hot-hand backfield comprised of plodders Bilal Powell and Shonn Greene. Both backs are averaging under 4.0 yards a carry, and neither possesses any hint of big-play ability. Powell got the start in last week's "win" over the Cardinals, only to give way to Greene, who registered his second 100-yard effort of the year in a dozen tries. The Jets figure to have some Week 14 rushing success against Jacksonville's 31st-ranked run defense, but there is no anointed feature back in the timeshare, and weekly goal-line carries are always up for grabs. Start Jets running backs at your own low-upside risk. ... Jeremy Kerley is the lone Jets wideout even remotely on the fantasy radar at this point. Facing the Jaguars' No. 28 pass defense, Kerley might be start-able if New York had a competent quarterback. Unfortunately, he has cleared 60 receiving yards in just one of his last five games and belongs on waiver wires in standard leagues.

The Jags will trot out their fourth different starting tailback of the season in Week 14 when special teamer/fullback Montell Owens gets the nod against the Jets. Owens, 28, has toted the rock 21 career times for 112 yards (5.33 YPC) and two touchdowns. On 40 preseason carries, he's gained 116 yards (2.90 YPC) and scored once. While Marcel Reece in Oakland showed us this season that versatile fullbacks can't be ruled out as potential fantasy assets, it would be a stretch to consider Owens a top-24 fantasy running back play, even against the Jets' bottom-four run defense. ... If Owens can't spark the Jaguars running game Sunday -- and here's guessing he's a long shot to -- Jacksonville's offense will struggle to generate ball movement and points. The Jets are a terrible team, but they still field a top-four pass defense and can take away No. 1 receivers with Antonio Cromartie's shadow coverage. This isn't a week to get excited about Chad Henne.

Henne's updated target distribution on the year: Cecil Shorts 35, Justin Blackmon 30, Marcedes Lewis 18, Jordan Shipley 9, Kevin Elliott 8, Rashad Jennings and Jalen Parmele 7, Owens 2. ... Also working against the outlook of Jacksonville's offense is the expected Week 14 absence of top wideout Cecil Shorts (concussion). Undrafted rookie Elliott will enter the starting lineup, and Cromartie will be assigned to shadow Blackmon. Since Darrelle Revis' Week 3 ACL tear, here are the statistical lines of receivers covered by Cromartie: Brian Hartline (twice) 1-41, 4-41; Michael Crabtree 2-15; Andre Johnson 1-15; Reggie Wayne 5-87; Brandon Lloyd (twice) 1-6, 3-26; Sidney Rice 2-54-2; Chris Givens 4-19; Larry Fitzgerald 1-23. Last week, Bills rookie Stephon Gilmore shut down Blackmon to the tune of one reception for nine yards. Could Cromartie hold Blackmon to negative fantasy points? ... By simple process of elimination, perhaps Lewis will deliver a solid fantasy day. The Jets have allowed the 11th most fantasy points in the league to tight ends.

Score Prediction: Jaguars 9, Jets 6

Atlanta @ Carolina

Catching fire since midseason, Cam Newton has posted a 9:2 TD-to-INT ratio as a passer with three rushing touchdowns over his last five games. He would've thrown four TD passes last week -- and the Panthers would have won -- had Brandon LaFell not dropped a perfectly-placed 52-yard scoring bomb against Kansas City. No quarterback has scored more fantasy points in the past five weeks, and Cam's overall fantasy QB ranking has surged to No. 6 overall, behind only RG3, Brady, Rodgers, Brees, and Peyton. Newton is making owners who had enough foresight to buy low after a relatively slow first half look awfully fantasy-savvy right about now. In Carolina's Week 4 game at Atlanta, Newton completed 15-of-24 passes (62.5 percent) for 215 yards (8.96 YPA), two touchdowns, and no interceptions, and rushed nine times for 86 yards and a third score. Keep riding Cam down the stretch. ... Steve Smith draws RCB Dunta Robinson in coverage on a heavy majority of snaps when the Panthers play Atlanta, and he's totaled 187 yards and nine catches in their last two matchups. Coming off a 5-120-1 line at Kansas City, lock in Smith as a high-end WR2 in Week 14. ... Newton's target distribution during the five-game hot stretch: Smith 37, Greg Olsen 34, LaFell 26, Louis Murphy 13, Mike Tolbert 11, Jonathan Stewart 7, DeAngelo Williams 3.

LaFell spent the past week in a walking boot battling turf toe and will be replaced by Murphy in the starting lineup, squaring off with Falcons LCB Asante Samuel. Look for Olsen to be the primary box-score beneficiary of LaFell's absence against an Atlanta defense surrendering the ninth most yards to tight ends. ... Stewart's high ankle sprain will sideline him again this week. Williams' combined stats in Stewart's three missed games this year: 116 yards on 29 carries (4.0 YPC), and four catches for 29 yards. Despite golden opportunities against the Chiefs (No. 26 run defense), Giants (21st), and Bucs, Williams hasn't scored a touchdown in any of those three games. The Falcons rank 20th against the run and have been vulnerable on the ground all year, but Williams has established himself as a bottom-barrel flex play. He's the No. 43 overall fantasy running back.

In the aforementioned Panthers-Falcons meeting, Atlanta successfully and relentlessly attacked Carolina's suspect safeties, specifically Week 4 goat-of-the-game FS Haruki Nakamura. Roddy White beat Nakamura for 49- and 14-yard touchdowns, in addition to a 59-yard Hail Mary bomb on the Falcons' game-winning drive. Nakamura also blew a tackle on Michael Turner's 60-yard TD reception. Nakamura had since lost his starting job, but he'll get it back Sunday after Sherrod Martin tore his ACL and MCL in Week 13. It should be music to the ears of White and Matt Ryan. ... Julio Jones returned healthy from an ankle injury two games ago. Ryan's target distribution since: Jones 17, White 14, Tony Gonzalez 10, Jason Snelling 8, Harry Douglas 5, Turner and Jacquizz Rodgers 4. ... Julio's production has been a bit up and down as the Falcons' one-dimensionality has caught up to their offense, but there's every reason to think Jones can get back on track versus overmatched Panthers fifth-round rookie RCB Josh Norman. Through 12 games, Pro Football Focus ranks Norman 105th out of 112 qualifying corners in pass coverage.

In Ryan's last four meetings with Carolina, he's gone 83-of-132 (62.9 percent) for 1,088 yards (8.24 YPA) and a 10:1 TD-to-INT ratio, chipping in an 11th touchdown on a rushing score. Ryan's three-week statistical lull has been well documented, but he's much more likely to pick it up than regress. ... The Panthers have been middling against tight ends this year, allowing the 14th most fantasy points to the position. Gonzalez remains a quality TE1 play, but it wouldn't be crazy for tight end-rich owners to consider someone like Martellus Bennett (vs. NO) or Owen Daniels (@ NE) over him, based purely on matchups. ... Rodgers has played more snaps than Turner in three straight weeks as Atlanta's backfield devolves into a true timeshare. Turner had more fantasy production in Week 13; Quizz led the scoring the week before. The Week 14 matchup is favorable versus Carolina's No. 25 run defense, but Rodgers and Turner are both dicey flex options. Turner is heavily reliant on goal-line chances. Even though Rodgers plays more offensive snaps, he sees fewer touches and would likely need to break off a big play in order to prove a worthwhile start.

Score Prediction: Panthers 27, Falcons 24

1:00PM ET Games

Tennessee @ Indianapolis

The Titans' offensive coordinator move from Chris Palmer to Dowell Loggains did have an on-field impact in Loggains' 2012 playcalling debut. Kenny Britt (66-of-75 plays) and Jared Cook (64) both experienced season-high snap counts and combined for 20 targets. Streaky quarterback Jake Locker's accuracy was an issue again, though, and both Britt (2-40-1) and Cook (4-51-0) wound up with relatively disappointing stats. Tennessee goes from facing Houston's No. 6 defense to Indy's 21st-ranked group this week, so easier sledding should be in store for Titans offensive skill-position players. ... One obstacle standing in the way of Locker & Co., however, is a decimated offensive line. Tennessee already lost RG Leroy Harris (ACL) and C Eugene Amano (triceps) to I.R. In Week 13, LG Steve Hutchinson (knee) and RT David Stewart (fractured leg) suffered year-ending injuries. Locker has a tendency to play too fast and frenetic under pressure, so the up-front casualties are concerning for his outlook. He's a dicey two-quarterback league option in Week 14. ... The line deterioration is also worrisome for Chris Johnson, although simply running harder has been the real key to his turnaround. Last week's stat line (13-51, 4-20) was attributable to a big early deficit. So long as he continues to hit lanes with purpose and finish off his runs, Johnson should get back on track against a Colts defense that ranks 22nd versus the run and permits 4.78 yards per carry.

No. 1 receiver stats against the Colts over the past five weeks: Brian Hartline 8-107, Cecil Shorts 6-105-1, Wes Welker 7-80, Stevie Johnson 6-106, and Calvin Johnson 13-171-1. Kendall Wright led Tennessee in Week 13 receptions (6-78) and Nate Washington (3-96) had the most yards, but the Titans still fancy Britt as their No. 1 pass option. “He caught the nice touchdown pass today," coach Mike Munchak said of Britt after last week's loss. "That’s hopefully a sign of things to come. You want to see more of that, obviously. ... It’s just a matter of us finding ways to get bigger plays out of him.” Start Britt as a WR3 at Indy, and ignore Wright and Washington, whom Tennessee views as complementary pieces. ... The Colts have been shredded by tight ends in their last three games, with Detroit, Buffalo, and New England TEs combining for 17 receptions, 267 yards, and four TDs against them in Weeks 11-13. There are more stable Week 14 tight end plays out there than Cook, but he should appeal to upside seekers. Loggains wants to get him the ball, and Cook wants to finish fast in his contract year.

Donald Brown's likely multi-week ankle injury locks in Vick Ballard as the Colts' every-down back, and he'll bring 20-touch workhorse potential into Sunday's matchup with Tennessee's bottom-six run defense. "Boy I really like Vick Ballard," NFL Films' Greg Cosell stated on Adam Caplan’s Week 14 Preview Podcast. "I think he's a good back. ... He's a very good receiver, by the way." Although Ballard's lack of big-play run skills limits his upside, the Colts have shown a willingness to lean on him as a chain mover and borderline every-down back, playing him ahead of Brown and Delone Carter in passing situations. The matchup and bellcow role combine to make Ballard a relatively appealing flex play. ... The Titans rank 26th against the pass and have allowed the second most passing touchdowns in the NFL. Meanwhile, Andrew Luck is the No. 2 fantasy quarterback over the past five weeks, behind only Cam Newton. The domed environs of Lucas Oil Stadium, a bad Tennessee defense, and his improving rapport with a rookie-laden supporting cast make Luck a strong QB1 in Week 14. ... Top-eight fantasy receiver Reggie Wayne touched up the Titans for 91 yards on seven catches in these teams' late-October meeting, and Tennessee has shown little or no defensive improvement since. Keep riding Wayne as he quietly racks up career-best stats with a rookie quarterbacking a pass-first attack.

Luck's target distribution over the past five games: Wayne 61, T.Y. Hilton 44, Donnie Avery 40, Dwayne Allen 31, LaVon Brazill 16, Ballard 14, Brown 7, Coby Fleener 2. ... Avery caught a pair of touchdowns last week, but the target numbers accurately reflect that Hilton is Luck's second favorite receiver, even if the rookie plays fewer weekly snaps. "I've been really impressed with Hilton as a route runner," Cosell said. "... I thought he'd be a perfect slot guy, and he obviously has that skill set, but he's lining up wide -- outside the numbers -- and winning. The 60-yarder he caught (last) week against Drayton Florence, he ran an unbelievable route. He looks very, very good." Hilton is the preferred WR3 over Avery going forward. ... Fleener's healthy return muddles Indianapolis' tight end situation in terms of weekly fantasy reliability. Allen is the better player of the two, but experienced a three-week low in targets (5) despite the fact that the Colts were in pass-happy comeback mode for most of last week's game against the Lions. Targeted just twice, Fleener secured his one reception for a 26-yard touchdown. This has become a situation to avoid.

Score Prediction: Colts 28, Titans 20

Dallas @ Cincinnati

The mismatch that stands out when breaking down these two teams is the Bengals' ferocious, aggressive front four versus Dallas' leaky offensive line. All three interior positions and right tackle have been major problem areas for the Cowboys up front. Cincinnati attacks the interior with NFL-best defensive tackle Geno Atkins, and re-charged LE Carlos Dunlap returns from a two-sack, two-forced fumble game to take on turnstile RT Doug Free. Tony Romo has masked Dallas' pass-protection woes in recent weeks, but this game has disaster written all over it. I couldn't bring myself to start Romo in a standard league. ... The overall production of Dallas' passing game may be down in Week 14, but Dez Bryant is on a wicked tear. "Dez is growing before our eyes," coach Jason Garrett said in last Sunday's post-game presser. Indeed. Bryant leads all running backs, receivers, and tight ends in fantasy points over the past three weeks, playing with efficiency and relentlessly ripping off big plays. He's surged to No. 5 in fantasy receiver scoring, behind only A.J. Green, Calvin Johnson, Brandon Marshall, and Demaryius Thomas. Dez is an every-week WR1. ... Romo's target distribution during Dez's team-carrying three-game stretch: Bryant 32, Jason Witten 31, Miles Austin and Cole Beasley 16, Dwayne Harris 11, Felix Jones 8, Kevin Ogletree 5.

Cincinnati has permitted the eighth most fantasy points to tight ends, creating a plus matchup for Witten. On pace for a career-high 118 receptions, Witten is due to hit pay dirt with just one TD on the year. ... If the Bengals "play sides" at cornerback, Bryant will spend most of this game in the coverage of RCB Pacman Jones and 34-year-old LCB Terence Newman on the perimeter. Austin would deal with top CB Leon Hall, whom Cincinnati has used in the slot recently when opponents go three wide. I don't think Austin has a great matchup, I don't think Romo will throw for a ton of yards, and I think Austin has taken a clear backseat in Dallas' passing offense as the No. 3 option behind Bryant and Witten. Austin is a mid-range to low-end WR3 in this game. ... While DeMarco Murray wasn't quite 100 percent in his first game back from a six-week foot injury in Week 13, he still displayed impressive straight-line burst and handled a season-high 27 touches. Consider him a locked-in RB2 going forward. Cincinnati's defensive line gets up field as a pass-rushing group, but it's less stout versus the run. ... Ogletree continues to play ahead Beasley and Harris, but his snaps have been declining for weeks. Avoid Dallas' third receiver committee in fantasy leagues.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis rarely gets much love in this space. He's a volume-dependent, plodding runner lacking big-play ability and a role in the passing game. But Green-Ellis has put together three straight 100-plus-yard games, and he has a favorable Week 14 matchup. The Cowboys are decimated up the middle with both starting inside linebackers on I.R., and NT Jay Ratliff nursing a debilitating groin injury. Washington and Philly's rushing offenses have combined to light up Rob Ryan's defense for 332 yards and three touchdowns on 58 carries (5.72 YPC) the past two weeks. Talent limitations will inevitably catch up to Green-Ellis, but fantasy owners should ride him while he's hot and receiving monster workloads. Complementary back Cedric Peerman's ankle injury ensures the latter will be the case. ... Due to the losses of ILBs Bruce Carter (elbow) and Sean Lee (toe), Dallas is also vulnerable in pass coverage over the middle. It showed up in last week's win over the Eagles, as TE Brent Celek and slot man Jason Avant combined for 152 yards on 11 receptions. Top-ten fantasy tight end Jermaine Gresham figures to stay in to help LT Andrew Whitworth block DeMarcus Ware on a fair number of snaps in Week 14, but Gresham should be open whenever he breaks into a pass route. He's a respectable TE1 play against the Cowboys.

The Cowboys opened the season playing shutdown pass defense, but they've been exposed by rookie quarterbacks the past three weeks. Brandon Weeden, Robert Griffin III, and Nick Foles combined to complete 61-of-96 throws (63.5 percent) for 765 yards (7.97 YPA), and a 7:1 TD-to-INT ratio against Dallas in Weeks 11-13. Andy Dalton is the No. 10 fantasy quarterback, and a viable back-end QB1 in this matchup. ... A.J. Green leads the NFL in receiving TDs and all wide receivers in fantasy scoring. He should lick his chops for a Week 14 date with struggling $50.1 million CB Brandon Carr. ... Rookie Marvin Jones has replaced injured Mohamed Sanu as the Bengals' No. 2 receiver. Jones played 69-of-78 snaps (88.5 percent) in last week's win over San Diego, but was targeted only three times, dropping one and catching two for 20 yards. While Jones is an interesting long-term prospect, he's not on the re-draft radar. ... Returning from a two-week knee injury, slot man Andrew Hawkins was a 72-percent player against the Chargers. He ranked second behind Green on the Bengals in Week 13 targets (8), pulling in five for 47 yards. "Baby Hawk" is a WR5 in PPR. He offers even less in touchdown- and yardage-heavy leagues.

Score Prediction: Bengals 23, Cowboys 20

San Diego @ Pittsburgh

I've discussed the sorry state of the Chargers' offense in this space in each of the past two weeks. It's getting worse. Already having lost LT Jared Gaither (groin) for the season, the Bolts will be minus LG Tyronne Green (hamstring), fill-in LT Mike Harris (ankle), and RT Jeromey Clary (knee) against Pittsburgh's No. 1 defense. The primary cause of Philip Rivers' struggles has been his reaction to pressure, including sensing heat when it isn't even there. And he'll now be playing behind a rag-tag offensive line. With SS Troy Polamalu progressing back into a full-time role, San Diego's pass offense will have a difficult time generating first downs at Heinz Field. Expect little from Rivers, and Malcom Floyd versus improving Steelers LCB Keenan Lewis. ... Rivers' target distribution since Danario Alexander became a starter four games ago: Alexander 36, Floyd 25, Ryan Mathews 22, Antonio Gates 19, Ronnie Brown 18, Eddie Royal 8, Robert Meachem 3. ... Alexander is the lone Chargers skill player worth serious Week 14 start consideration. Locked in as San Diego's go-to receiver, D.X. should benefit from the absence of Steelers RCB Ike Taylor (right fibula). The Ravens picked on fill-in RCB Cortez Allen last week, as Allen was beaten for a 28-yard touchdown by Anquan Boldin and also flagged for a 30-yard pass interference penalty.

Chargers coaches have determined that Mathews is incapable of being the franchise back for their team. His 2012 performance has done nothing to make that notion unwarranted. Even when he's stopped fumbling, Mathews has remained prone to on-field errors. He drew the ire of Rivers last week for blowing a route on a designed halfback screen. Mathews has run tentatively, leaving yards on the field en route to a career-low 4.00 YPC average. He's not trusted in critical situations. This is a great week to sit Mathews in fantasy because Pittsburgh fields a top-five run defense, and his playing time may bottom out if superior pass protector Brown is needed for an increased role due to the O-Line casualties. Mathews is a weak flex option in Week 14. ... Like Mathews, Gates is a fantasy bust. Unlike Mathews, Gates is still an effective football player. Combined with its overall offensive ineptitude, San Diego's lack of a threatening perimeter presence has put a defensive bulls-eye on Gates more often than not. He's failed to get open against double teams and bracket coverage. Rivers targets Gates 4-5 times a game. The Steelers have allowed the fewest fantasy points to tight ends in the AFC this season. So look elsewhere for TE1s this week.

The Steelers figure to ease Ben Roethlisberger back into the lineup after a three-game absence due to rib and shoulder injuries. San Diego is playing top-nine defense, so fantasy owners should be wary of immediately re-anointing Big Ben a fantasy starter. "The (Steelers) have obviously committed a lot more to the run game," NFL Films' Greg Cosell stated this week. "... I think the days of Roethlisberger throwing it 40 times are over, unless the game demands it. And I don't think this game will demand it." Expect a low-scoring, physical affair as Roethlisberger gets back into the swing of things. ... The one factor that could spur Pittsburgh playcaller Todd Haley into pass-first mode would be sheer ineffectiveness from his run game. The Chargers rank sixth against the run and get back edge-setting run-defender OLB Jarret Johnson from a back injury this week. Jonathan Dwyer has taken over as the Steelers' lead back, but he's hardly set the league ablaze with 179 yards on 56 carries (3.20 YPC) over the last four games. He also "lost" nine carries to Isaac Redman in Week 13. Dwyer is a dicey, low-upside flex play in a tough matchup this week.

Even if Roethlisberger doesn't instantaneously resume peppering opponents with pass targets, his return is a big plus for the outlooks of Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, and Heath Miller. Brown showed in last week's win over Baltimore that his midseason high ankle sprain has fully healed, picking up 62 yards on six touches. He also resumed returning punts. Brown is a worthy WR3 roll of the dice in a matchup with Chargers slow-footed, 33-year-old LCB Quentin Jammer. ... Even if he's lost a small dose of playing time to Emmanuel Sanders in recent weeks, Wallace's big-play ability makes him an enticing WR2 because San Diego struggles to defend fast-twitch speed receivers. Torrey Smith is similar to Wallace, and Smith ate up Jammer and RCB Antoine Cason for 144 yards on seven receptions two weeks ago. Wallace will draw Cason for the majority of Sunday's snaps. Cason is the Chargers' weak link in the secondary. ... Miller will be better off with Ben under center going forward, but he does have a difficult Week 14 matchup. Stifling tight ends with FS Eric Weddle, San Diego has permitted the fourth fewest fantasy points in the league to the position. I personally would opt for a Martellus Bennett or Tony Scheffler over Heath this week.

Score Prediction: Steelers 20, Chargers 13

Kansas City @ Cleveland

Good ole hindsight tells us that the Browns made a commitment to Trent Richardson as their offensive foundation player during the Week 10 bye. Whereas Richardson reached 20 carries in just 2-of-9 games before the open date, he's hit 20 in all three since while operating as an every-down workhorse. Bucking the mythical notion that rookie running backs struggle -- along with Doug Martin and Alfred Morris -- Richardson is the No. 5 overall fantasy player at his position. He's a legit RB1 squaring off with Kansas City's No. 26 run defense. ... The Browns' passing game returns from Brandon Weeden's 364-yard scorching of an uncompetitive Oakland defense to face a similarly leaky Chiefs group. Kansas City has surrendered a league-high 25 touchdown throws, and no defense permits a higher quarterback rating (103.0) against. Top CB Brandon Flowers and ILB Derrick Johnson also missed practice time this week with hamstring injuries. Weeden has sneaky two-QB league potential as a Week 14 matchup play. "I think he's improved," NFL Films' Greg Cosell observed of Weeden this week. "I think that he's a solid NFL quarterback, with a good arm and a chance to be a little better than a solid NFL quarterback."

No team has been thrown against less than Kansas City in 2012, yet it's still permitted the 12th most 20-plus-yard pass plays in football, and the third most 40-plus-yard completions. Particularly with Flowers banged up, the Chiefs are going to be highly susceptible to vertical shot plays. The intermediate to deep sections of the field are where Josh Gordon butters his bread. "I think he's a deceptive vertical speed guy," Cosell said of Gordon. "I think he's a speed-cut receiver. He's not a quick in-and-out-of-break guy, but there's a lot of receivers like that in the NFL. Even great receivers. ... I think that he's got a chance to be a pretty good receiver. The kid can run." Gordon is a high-upside WR3 play in Week 14. ... Weeden's target distribution since Cleveland's Week 10 bye: Gordon 21, Ben Watson 20, Richardson 17, Greg Little 13, Jordan Cameron 9, Mohamed Massaquoi 8. ... Beyond rookies T-Rich and Gordon, Watson is the only Browns skill-position guy seeing the ball regularly enough to be taken seriously in fantasy lineup decisions. On Sunday, he'll face a Chiefs defense allowing the NFL's third fewest catches and fifth fewest yards to tight ends.

Brady Quinn's surprisingly competent Week 13 performance has created more questions than answers. Can he keep it up? Is there even a chance? Quinn's combined career stats coming off 200-plus-yard games -- he's done it four times before -- are 53-of-120 (44.2 percent) for 536 yards (4.47 YPA), and a 0:1 TD-to-INT ratio. Throughout Quinn's six-year career, he has consistently proven incapable of sustaining a passing attack. Now facing an underrated and quietly surging Browns defense on the road, I think the best approach for fantasy owners is to chalk up last week as a fluke. Dwayne Bowe (4-64 in Week 13) will see Joe Haden's shadow coverage in Week 14 and is no better than an unreliable WR3 with lots of downside. Tony Moeaki returns from his season-best game (4-54-1) to face a Cleveland defense permitting the sixth fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Jon Baldwin (2-37-1) has not cleared 40 receiving yards since September. Slot receiver Dexter McCluster (2-16) has been a non-factor regardless of how well Quinn has played.

Amid the Chiefs' 2012 buffoonery, Jamaal Charles has stood out as a reliable big-play contributor and legit offensive weapon. And to the Kansas City coaching staff's credit, they've been feeding him the rock with regularity over the past month. Charles has received 20 or more touches in four consecutive games, and broken off at least 100 total yards in all four. His yards-per-carry average across that span is 4.68. Black-hole back Peyton Hillis vultured a first-quarter goal-line touchdown in last week's upset of Carolina, but for the most part has stayed out of Charles' way. The Browns rank a respectable 16th against the run and have played even better than that statistic indicates in recent games, but Charles has delivered borderline RB1 stats in more difficult matchups than this one all season. He should be locked into fantasy lineups every week. Hillis is not worth owning.

Score Prediction: Browns 23, Chiefs 14

Philadelphia @ Tampa Bay

Josh Freeman's production has slowed a bit off his red-hot midseason stretch, but his Week 14 matchup is ripe for the picking. "The two corners in the secondary have shut it down," NFL Network's Deion Sanders observed of Philadelphia's defensive backfield this week. "They're not covering anybody." Since the Week 7 firing of DC Juan Castillo, the Eagles have allowed opposing passers to complete 116-of-152 throws (76.3 percent) for 1,319 yards (8.68 YPA), 16 touchdowns, and no interceptions. Quarterbacks are cutting up Philly's pass "defense" like a hot knife through butter. ... Vincent Jackson will spend most of this game in RCB Nnamdi Asomugha's coverage, while Mike Williams draws LCB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Shake off V-Jax's Week 13 shutdown by Champ Bailey and start him as a top-ten receiver against declining Asomugha. ... Rodgers-Cromartie still can't tackle a lick -- see Dez Bryant's second touchdown last week -- but he's at least held his own in coverage and will likely make it difficult for Williams to get open. Averaging 55 yards over his last seven games, Williams is a viable, if somewhat risky WR3 in Week 14.

Dallas Clark has three touchdowns in his last four games, but he's prone to inconsistency as a 54-percent player on offense. OC Mike Sullivan won't increase Clark's role, either, because he gets blown up as a blocker. The Eagles rank 19th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, so the matchup isn't attractive enough to springboard Clark onto the TE1 radar. ... The Bucs are a virtual lock to generate consistent ball movement Sunday because Philly's defense is so bad. This game has sneaky shootout potential. A high-scoring affair versus a bad team could be just the recipe Doug Martin needs to bust his recent yards-per-carry slump. Martin has been held to 106 yards on 39 carries (2.72 YPC) the past two weeks. The Eagles rank 18th against the run and in no way present an imposing matchup for Tampa Bay's every-down back. Start Martin as a top-ten RB1.

Bryce Brown has now fumbled four times on 75 career carries, but the Philly coaching staff's commitment to its seventh-round pick is promising. Even after last week's back-breaking fourth-quarter fumble-six at Dallas, Brown was left in the game and played every remaining snap, including a two-point conversion attempt down 38-33. Brown runs with special explosiveness, racking up 347 yards and four touchdowns on 43 carries (8.07 YPC) in his last eight quarters of action. Brown is an every-down back oozing big-play ability and should be locked into Week 14 fantasy lineups despite a matchup with Tampa's No. 1 run defense. One potential positive for Brown's outlook would be the absence of Bucs DT Roy Miller (concussion). A run-stopping specialist at nose tackle, Miller has enjoyed a bit of a breakout season in a contract year. ... Nick Foles finally played competently and under control in the Cowboys loss, connecting on three 20-plus-yard pass plays and giving Philly a downfield threat to complement Brown's dominant rushing attack. Even in Foles' previous poor performances, he showed an innate ability to manipulate the pocket with subtle movements, evading the rush. Foles is still a promising talent with a big arm, and he's worth a look in two-quarterback leagues against the Bucs' last-ranked pass defense.

Foles' updated target distribution on the season: Jeremy Maclin 26, Brent Celek 21, Riley Cooper 19, DeSean Jackson 17, Brown 12, Clay Harbor 11, Damaris Johnson 7, Stanley Havili and Jason Avant 6. ... Maclin's production has underwhelmed the past three weeks, but he'll be a high-upside WR3 with Foles coming on strong in a mouth-watering matchup. Fantasy owners should not write Maclin off. ... Avant (4-79) and Celek (7-73) were Philadelphia's leading receivers in Week 13 for what appeared to be game plan-specific reasons. The Eagles identified a Dallas defense missing both inside linebackers as vulnerable over the middle and attacked with its tight end and slot receiver. The Bucs, on the other hand, are strong up the middle but susceptible on the perimeter after losing both starting corners, RCB Eric Wright to suspension and LCB Aqib Talib to trade. Look for Maclin to be heavily involved at Tampa, while Avant and Celek take more of a backseat.

Score Prediction: Buccaneers 27, Eagles 21

NY Jets @ Jacksonville

The Jets this week decided to reinsert Mark Sanchez as their starting quarterback after yanking him in the third quarter of last Sunday's game at Arizona. Greg McElroy led a game-winning TD drive against the Cardinals, but the Jets operate on a zero-accountability policy and have turned back to their faux-franchise passer. To the Jets' credit, however, they're keeping Sanchez on a short leash. "There was a serious difference of opinion about what to do," ESPN's Sal Paolantonio reported Wednesday, hours after coach Rex Ryan recommitted to Sanchez. "He said that if Mark Sanchez struggled against Jacksonville, he would 'absolutely' bench Sanchez just like he did last week. ... It sounds like (Sanchez) has a very short leash and Rex Ryan is ready to pull the plug." Ryan also told both the Jacksonville and New York medias that Tim Tebow -- not McElroy -- will be the Jets' backup this week. Potential in-game quarterback musical chairs, and a complete lack of upside even if Sanchez does last four quarters, ought to render Jets pass catchers hands-off in Week 14 fantasy lineup decisions. ... Dustin Keller might be the one guy worth a look, but Keller suffered a significant ankle sprain against the Cardinals and has been ineffective when trying to play at less than 100 percent. The Jaguars also allow the fifth fewest fantasy points to tight ends.

The Jets' run game has deteriorated into a hot-hand backfield comprised of plodders Bilal Powell and Shonn Greene. Both backs are averaging under 4.0 yards a carry, and neither possesses any hint of big-play ability. Powell got the start in last week's "win" over the Cardinals, only to give way to Greene, who registered his second 100-yard effort of the year in a dozen tries. The Jets figure to have some Week 14 rushing success against Jacksonville's 31st-ranked run defense, but there is no anointed feature back in the timeshare, and weekly goal-line carries are always up for grabs. Start Jets running backs at your own low-upside risk. ... Jeremy Kerley is the lone Jets wideout even remotely on the fantasy radar at this point. Facing the Jaguars' No. 28 pass defense, Kerley might be start-able if New York had a competent quarterback. Unfortunately, he has cleared 60 receiving yards in just one of his last five games and belongs on waiver wires in standard leagues.

The Jags will trot out their fourth different starting tailback of the season in Week 14 when special teamer/fullback Montell Owens gets the nod against the Jets. Owens, 28, has toted the rock 21 career times for 112 yards (5.33 YPC) and two touchdowns. On 40 preseason carries, he's gained 116 yards (2.90 YPC) and scored once. While Marcel Reece in Oakland showed us this season that versatile fullbacks can't be ruled out as potential fantasy assets, it would be a stretch to consider Owens a top-24 fantasy running back play, even against the Jets' bottom-four run defense. ... If Owens can't spark the Jaguars running game Sunday -- and here's guessing he's a long shot to -- Jacksonville's offense will struggle to generate ball movement and points. The Jets are a terrible team, but they still field a top-four pass defense and can take away No. 1 receivers with Antonio Cromartie's shadow coverage. This isn't a week to get excited about Chad Henne.

Henne's updated target distribution on the year: Cecil Shorts 35, Justin Blackmon 30, Marcedes Lewis 18, Jordan Shipley 9, Kevin Elliott 8, Rashad Jennings and Jalen Parmele 7, Owens 2. ... Also working against the outlook of Jacksonville's offense is the expected Week 14 absence of top wideout Cecil Shorts (concussion). Undrafted rookie Elliott will enter the starting lineup, and Cromartie will be assigned to shadow Blackmon. Since Darrelle Revis' Week 3 ACL tear, here are the statistical lines of receivers covered by Cromartie: Brian Hartline (twice) 1-41, 4-41; Michael Crabtree 2-15; Andre Johnson 1-15; Reggie Wayne 5-87; Brandon Lloyd (twice) 1-6, 3-26; Sidney Rice 2-54-2; Chris Givens 4-19; Larry Fitzgerald 1-23. Last week, Bills rookie Stephon Gilmore shut down Blackmon to the tune of one reception for nine yards. Could Cromartie hold Blackmon to negative fantasy points? ... By simple process of elimination, perhaps Lewis will deliver a solid fantasy day. The Jets have allowed the 11th most fantasy points in the league to tight ends.

Score Prediction: Jaguars 9, Jets 6

Atlanta @ Carolina

Catching fire since midseason, Cam Newton has posted a 9:2 TD-to-INT ratio as a passer with three rushing touchdowns over his last five games. He would've thrown four TD passes last week -- and the Panthers would have won -- had Brandon LaFell not dropped a perfectly-placed 52-yard scoring bomb against Kansas City. No quarterback has scored more fantasy points in the past five weeks, and Cam's overall fantasy QB ranking has surged to No. 6 overall, behind only RG3, Brady, Rodgers, Brees, and Peyton. Newton is making owners who had enough foresight to buy low after a relatively slow first half look awfully fantasy-savvy right about now. In Carolina's Week 4 game at Atlanta, Newton completed 15-of-24 passes (62.5 percent) for 215 yards (8.96 YPA), two touchdowns, and no interceptions, and rushed nine times for 86 yards and a third score. Keep riding Cam down the stretch. ... Steve Smith draws RCB Dunta Robinson in coverage on a heavy majority of snaps when the Panthers play Atlanta, and he's totaled 187 yards and nine catches in their last two matchups. Coming off a 5-120-1 line at Kansas City, lock in Smith as a high-end WR2 in Week 14. ... Newton's target distribution during the five-game hot stretch: Smith 37, Greg Olsen 34, LaFell 26, Louis Murphy 13, Mike Tolbert 11, Jonathan Stewart 7, DeAngelo Williams 3.

LaFell spent the past week in a walking boot battling turf toe and will be replaced by Murphy in the starting lineup, squaring off with Falcons LCB Asante Samuel. Look for Olsen to be the primary box-score beneficiary of LaFell's absence against an Atlanta defense surrendering the ninth most yards to tight ends. ... Stewart's high ankle sprain will sideline him again this week. Williams' combined stats in Stewart's three missed games this year: 116 yards on 29 carries (4.0 YPC), and four catches for 29 yards. Despite golden opportunities against the Chiefs (No. 26 run defense), Giants (21st), and Bucs, Williams hasn't scored a touchdown in any of those three games. The Falcons rank 20th against the run and have been vulnerable on the ground all year, but Williams has established himself as a bottom-barrel flex play. He's the No. 43 overall fantasy running back.

In the aforementioned Panthers-Falcons meeting, Atlanta successfully and relentlessly attacked Carolina's suspect safeties, specifically Week 4 goat-of-the-game FS Haruki Nakamura. Roddy White beat Nakamura for 49- and 14-yard touchdowns, in addition to a 59-yard Hail Mary bomb on the Falcons' game-winning drive. Nakamura also blew a tackle on Michael Turner's 60-yard TD reception. Nakamura had since lost his starting job, but he'll get it back Sunday after Sherrod Martin tore his ACL and MCL in Week 13. It should be music to the ears of White and Matt Ryan. ... Julio Jones returned healthy from an ankle injury two games ago. Ryan's target distribution since: Jones 17, White 14, Tony Gonzalez 10, Jason Snelling 8, Harry Douglas 5, Turner and Jacquizz Rodgers 4. ... Julio's production has been a bit up and down as the Falcons' one-dimensionality has caught up to their offense, but there's every reason to think Jones can get back on track versus overmatched Panthers fifth-round rookie RCB Josh Norman. Through 12 games, Pro Football Focus ranks Norman 105th out of 112 qualifying corners in pass coverage.

In Ryan's last four meetings with Carolina, he's gone 83-of-132 (62.9 percent) for 1,088 yards (8.24 YPA) and a 10:1 TD-to-INT ratio, chipping in an 11th touchdown on a rushing score. Ryan's three-week statistical lull has been well documented, but he's much more likely to pick it up than regress. ... The Panthers have been middling against tight ends this year, allowing the 14th most fantasy points to the position. Gonzalez remains a quality TE1 play, but it wouldn't be crazy for tight end-rich owners to consider someone like Martellus Bennett (vs. NO) or Owen Daniels (@ NE) over him, based purely on matchups. ... Rodgers has played more snaps than Turner in three straight weeks as Atlanta's backfield devolves into a true timeshare. Turner had more fantasy production in Week 13; Quizz led the scoring the week before. The Week 14 matchup is favorable versus Carolina's No. 25 run defense, but Rodgers and Turner are both dicey flex options. Turner is heavily reliant on goal-line chances. Even though Rodgers plays more offensive snaps, he sees fewer touches and would likely need to break off a big play in order to prove a worthwhile start.

Score Prediction: Panthers 27, Falcons 24

Baltimore @ Washington

Say he never tears the plantar plate in his foot. Where does Pierre Garcon rank among fantasy receivers through 12 games? I'll say top 15 with upside for more. The Skins are 5-1 in Garcon's six appearances, and he's secured 12 of a team-high 17 targets for 192 yards and two TDs the past two weeks. Now facing burnable Baltimore CBs Cary Williams and Chykie Brown, Garcon is fast approaching every-week WR2 value for the fantasy playoffs. ... During Washington's three-game winning streak, Robert Griffin III has completed 47-of-64 passes (73.4 percent) for 674 yards (10.53 YPA) and a 9:1 TD-to-INT ratio. He's chipped in 185 yards on 23 carries (8.04 YPC). "He's changing the game with the way he plays the position," ESPN's Jon Gruden observed of Griffin last week. Start a white-hot RG3 against Baltimore's mediocre defense. ... Griffin's target distribution since Garcon returned following the Redskins' Week 10 bye: Garcon 20, Josh Morgan 14, Logan Paulsen 7, Santana Moss 6, Leonard Hankerson 5, Niles Paul and Aldrick Robinson 2.

Beyond Garcon, there isn't a single Washington pass catcher worth weekly fantasy investment. Garcon is the featured receiver in a run-first offense, and the remaining tight ends and wideouts are rotating role players. ... Alfred Morris has 576 yards on his last 115 carries (5.01 YPC) and continues to churn out chain-moving run after chain-moving run. While Morris' lack of passing-game usage puts a bit of a cap on his week-to-week fantasy upside, he remains locked in as a high-end to mid-range RB2. The Ravens are playing better run defense than their No. 23 ranking suggests, but they are hardly a shutdown group and may be without do-it-all DE/OLB Terrell Suggs due to a torn biceps. Morris is third in the NFL in rushing and ninth in running back scoring.

Do home-and-away stats have predictive value, or are they just interesting hindsight analysis? I struggle with this. For Joe Flacco, they're a definite trend. In six home games this season, Flacco has completed 131-of-207 passes (63.3 percent) for 1,800 yards (8.7 YPA) and an 11:4 TD-to-INT ratio. In six away games, Flacco is 121-of-219 (55.3 percent) for 1,238 yards (5.65 YPA), four touchdowns, and four picks. The Redskins rank 23rd against the pass and allow the highest QB rating in the NFC, but Flacco is a two-quarterback league option only because he becomes John Skelton on the road. ... While Torrey Smith's inconsistency is maddening, the overall numbers have been there. He's the No. 17 fantasy receiver and likely headed for a bounce-back game in D.C. Smith's 4.43 vertical speed will be difficult for ankle-hobbled Redskins LCB DeAngelo Hall to handle on the outside. ... Flacco's target distribution since Baltimore's Week 8 bye: Anquan Boldin 44, Smith 43, Ray Rice 23, Dennis Pitta 21, Jacoby Jones 19, Tandon Doss 8, and Ed Dickson 7.

Boldin is always a low-upside fantasy bet -- he has two TDs and one 100-yard effort over his last 16 regular season games -- but Boldin is pacing Baltimore in targets and has a plus Week 14 matchup versus Redskins rookie slot corner Richard Crawford. Consider Boldin a viable WR3. ... Washington has served up a lot of fantasy points to tight ends this season, but Pitta has been overtaken by Boldin as Flacco's go-to receiver over the middle and isn't a realistic TE1. ... Doss has begun cutting into Jones' third receiver snaps. Neither backup wideout is worth a fantasy roster spot. ... After mid-November slowdown concerns, Rice has ripped off 170 yards on his last 30 carries (5.67 YPC). Washington ranks fourth in run defense, but gets pushed around in the trenches more than that stat indicates and should be no match for Rice's cutting ability, and elite vision and versatility. Rice is a top-five RB1.

Score Prediction: Redskins 27, Ravens 23

St. Louis @ Buffalo

Grabbing a 24-10 third-quarter lead surely played a role, but it's fair to wonder if last week's 46:17 run-to-throw ratio against Jacksonville was a sign of Buffalo transitioning toward a run-heavy offense. Ryan Fitzpatrick is averaging a Russell Wilsonian 26 pass attempts the past three weeks after averaging 33 in the first nine games. Weak-armed Fitzpatrick has always fared poorly in the November and December elements, and the Bills' best offensive talent is in the running game. A philosophical adjustment would make sense. In Week 14, Buffalo will face a St. Louis team that defends the pass better than the run. Fitz is a low-end two-QB league option with decreasing upside if the revised offense sticks. ... Fitzpatrick's target distribution during those three games: Stevie Johnson 29, Donald Jones and Scott Chandler 11, C.J. Spiller 8, T.J. Graham 7, Fred Jackson 4. ... If Buffalo leans on F-Jax and Spiller as its offensive foundation during the final month, Johnson will be the lone Bills pass catcher with any shot at consistent production. It's pretty much been that way in Buffalo this year anyway. Chan Gailey's Pistol scheme spreads the field with constant five-wideout sets, and can get Johnson matched up with rookie CBs Janoris Jenkins and Trumaine Johnson on a high volume of Sunday's pass plays. Assuming his hamstring holds up, Johnson is a solid WR3 against the Rams.

A concern for Jackson's fantasy outlook is C Eric Wood's likely season-ending MCL tear. Wood is Buffalo's best interior lineman, and Jackson is the Bills' primary inside runner. F-Jax remains a worthwhile flex play against a St. Louis defense surrendering the fourth most rushing touchdowns in the league, but his effectiveness could be impacted going forward. ... Jackson told reporters after last week's game that he indeed anticipates Buffalo fielding a run-first offense down the stretch. “Without a doubt,” he said. “We feel like our best players are in the running back room." Spiller's lack of red-zone usage is confounding, but he will continue to be the best bet in Buffalo's backfield for yardage and touchdowns. Gailey has publicly committed to keeping his best player heavily involved, even if Spiller's snaps and touches all occur between the 20s. Perhaps he isn't quite the RB1 we envisioned, but Spiller is a high-upside and high-end RB2 starter in Week 14.

The Bills stand a lowly 30th in the NFL run-defense rankings, but they've gotten it together of late. Buffalo has held the Dolphins, Colts, and Jaguars to a combined 197 yards and one touchdown on 71 carries (2.77 YPC) the past three weeks. Those aren't quite juggernaut rushing offenses, but the Bills possess ample front-four talent for sustained stoutness. While Steven Jackson is every bit worth an RB2 start, he's not quite the blowup-game cinch he might've been earlier in the year. ... Chris Givens opened the season as a streak-route specialist, running downfield goes and flies on a limited route tree. Givens has gotten better every week and took a big step forward in his career with an 11-catch, 92-yard effort in Week 13, securing 79 percent of his game-high 14 targets. "In terms of his movement, there are similarities to Mike Wallace," tape guru Greg Cosell opined of Givens this week. "I think Givens showed last week that he can make short catches. I'd still like to see more of them. ... But there's no question the kid has great movement skill." Givens figures to draw emerging Bills top corner Stephon Gilmore in Week 14 pass coverage. Opposing receiver stats against Gilmore over the past four weeks: Brian Hartline 4-49, Brandon Lloyd 5-45, Reggie Wayne 8-102, and Justin Blackmon 1-9. None of them has scored a touchdown. Givens is worth a long look as a WR3 against the Bills, but he'll have a battle on his hands with Gilmore.

Sam Bradford has completed 83-of-139 passes (59.7 percent) for 871 yards (6.27 YPA), and a 6:2 TD-to-INT ratio over his last four games. Bradford is playing better than he did in 2011, but he's still a low-end QB2 squaring off with a Bills pass defense that has surged to No. 13 in the league rankings. Buffalo is finally rushing the passer and playing aggressive defense in the back four. LE Mario Williams has five sacks over his last three games. ... Rams rookie change-of-pace back Daryl Richardson's usage has fallen steadily since the October 16 trade deadline. His touch total has dropped in four straight games. Richardson is just a lottery-ticket stash at this point, needing an S-Jax injury to be start-able in fantasy leagues. ... Danny Amendola's (heel) return to practice this week indicates he's being prepared to play on Sunday. He didn't practice at all the past two weeks. Amendola's health has just been so unreliable that he'd be almost impossible to count on in the first round of the fantasy playoffs. The best approach for owners would be to put Amendola on a "wait-and-see" week and start him in Week 15 if he plays well this Sunday, considering it a plus even if he's productive on your bench. There's too much downside this week.

Score Prediction: Bills 24, Rams 21

Chicago @ Minnesota

AP2K? On a scintillating tear of six consecutive games averaging six-plus yards per carry, Adrian Peterson has positioned himself to reach 2,000 rushing yards by averaging 138.5 per game over the final month. No longer an imposing matchup for opposing running backs, the Bears' defense has been lit up for 697 yards on 134 carries (5.20 YPC) across its last five games and will likely be without MLB Brian Urlacher (hamstring) for the regular season's remainder. Ride Peterson to the fantasy title. ... With Percy Harvin done for the year, Kyle Rudolph will be the only other Vikings player worth a weekly fantasy look. Chicago has allowed the third most receptions to tight ends, and Rudolph posted a respectable 5-55-1 line in these teams' November 25 meeting. ... Christian Ponder's updated target distribution in Harvin's three missed games this season: Rudolph 26, Jarius Wright and Jerome Simpson 16, Peterson 13, Michael Jenkins 10, and Toby Gerhart 3.

"I can't tell you what's in his head, but I can only see it on tape," NFL Films' Greg Cosell said of Ponder this week. "He's so lacking confidence in delivering the football. He moves when he doesn't have to, and he makes ill-advised throws. He's clearly not seeing things. And when a quarterback's not seeing things, they really have a hard time playing. ... So their offense is one-dimensional." ... Bears RCB Tim Jennings' (shoulder) absence doesn't improve Simpson's outlook much. Simpson can expect to be shadowed by Charles Tillman in what will be an easy win for Chicago's top cover corner. ... Wright will replace Harvin in the slot, but his limited role inevitably leads to clunker games. Wright played under 50 percent of the Vikings' Week 13 offensive snaps. He finished with one reception for 13 yards, and wasn't targeted until the final play of the game.

Matt Forte's Week 12 ankle scare proved no worse than that as he racked up 24 touches, 96 yards, and a touchdown in last Sunday's loss to Seattle. Forte played 48-of-61 snaps (78.7 percent), while Michael Bush was limited to 13, picking up a rib injury along the way. The Vikings rank a relatively middling No. 14 in run defense. With his workload restored, Forte is a strong RB2 play in Week 14. ... Just 22nd in per-game scoring among fantasy quarterbacks this season, Jay Cutler is a two-quarterback league starter and nothing more so long as Chicago remains one of the NFL's run-heaviest teams. Only the Seahawks, 49ers, and Redskins have thrown the football less than the Bears this season. ... The return of rookie Alshon Jeffery should add some big-play ability to Chicago's offense, once he gets his legs back at least. Against the Vikings, Jeffery is unlikely to make an immediate difference in his return from in-season knee surgery. ... Just as Devin Hester figures to return this week from a concussion, Earl Bennett suffered his own concussion in Week 13. Neither is worth a fantasy roster spot. ... Brandon Marshall is the No. 3 overall fantasy wideout and racked up 12 catches in the aforementioned Week 12 Bears-Vikings game. Despite Chicago's low team pass attempts total, Marshall is third in the NFL in targets.

Score Prediction: Bears 21, Vikings 17

4:05PM ET Game

Miami @ San Francisco

Jake Long couldn't have picked a worse time to tear his triceps. Long wasn't playing career-best football, but rookie replacement Jonathan Martin has been far worse at right tackle and will now attempt to block 49ers OLB Aldon Smith on Ryan Tannehill's blind side. Smith leads the NFL in sacks (17.5). It's a major concern for Miami's Week 14 pass game. ... It's difficult to imagine the Dolphins moving the ball offensively in this brutal road matchup, let alone scoring touchdowns. The Niners rank third against the run and shut down a previously red-hot Steven Jackson in Week 13, holding him to 48 scoreless yards on 21 carries (2.29 YPC). Although Reggie Bush is healthy and running well again, he's not being used as a workhorse, losing 17 touches to Daniel Thomas the past two games. Avoid Miami's backfield this week. ... Davone Bess will match up with 49ers slot CB Carlos Rogers for most of this contest, while the Niners' physical press coverage on the outside will make it very tough for Brian Hartline to find space on pass patterns. This could be an odd game where someone like Rishard Matthews or Charles Clay leads Miami in receiving. Fantasy owners shouldn't feel good about starting a single Dolphins skill-position player at San Francisco.

Colin Kaepernick took a mild step back in Week 13 against a Rams team that played the 49ers tough in both of their 2012 meetings. The first resulted in a tie, the second in Kaepernick's first career loss. "I thought Kaepernick played okay last week," NFL Films' Greg Cosell said. "He had a few more plays that were not as positive. ... On the other hand, Delanie Walker dropped an easy touchdown late in the game, and then they would have won the game." So it isn't as if defenses have caught up to or figured out Kaepernick; he's more likely to bounce back against Miami's 27th-ranked pass defense than continue to regress. Kaepernick remains on the back-end QB1 radar with plenty of upside in a plus matchup. ... Kaepernick's updated target distribution on the year: Michael Crabtree 24, Vernon Davis and Mario Manningham 17, Randy Moss 12, Delanie Walker 9, Frank Gore 6. ... Manningham has battled an ongoing shoulder injury this season. It's cost him one game and rendered him ineffective in others, and he'll be a game-time decision in a late game Sunday. On pace for under 600 yards, Manningham's production isn't worth the sweat.

Saturday Update: Manningham (shoulder) was listed as doubtful on Friday's injury report and will almost certainly miss his second game of the season. Manningham's absence will mean more receiver snaps for Kyle Williams, Ted Ginn, and perhaps first-round pick A.J. Jenkins, who's yet to be active for a 2012 game. Ultimately, there is little to no foreseeable fantasy impact.

Crabtree is the one 49ers pass catcher with whom Kaepernick has consistently connected. Over the past five weeks, Crabtree is the No. 26 receiver in per-game scoring and appears trustworthy as a WR3. ... Hindsight has shown that Kaepernick's rapport with Vernon Davis remains a work in progress, creating fantasy frustration. Davis has a plus Week 14 matchup versus a Miami team allowing the tenth most catches and third most yards to tight ends, but it would be understandable if owners were more inclined to sit him with just two catches for 15 yards on an underwhelming four targets the past two weeks. ... Miami's top-eight run defense was softened up in Week 13 for 109 yards and a touchdown on 28 carries by Patriots tailbacks. This is not an easy matchup for Frank Gore, but the workload is sure to be there, especially if San Francisco controls this game as it should. Fire up Gore as a volume runner in Week 14. He'll be a good bet for a goal-line score.

Score Prediction: 49ers 23, Dolphins 7

4:25PM ET Games

Arizona @ Seattle

Russell Wilson is on pace for a 26:11 TD-to-INT ratio this year. Only ten current qualifying starting quarterbacks have a better completion rate than Wilson's 63.4, and his 7.39 yards-per-attempt average is superior to more ballyhooed rookie Andrew Luck's. Perhaps the most impressive aspect of his rookie-year game, however, has been Wilson's ability to elevate the performance of his teammates. Golden Tate is on pace for a career-best year. So is Marshawn Lynch. Sidney Rice was left for dead in some circles entering the year, but he's been rejuvenated as the No. 21 overall fantasy receiver. This week's popular notion that Wilson is a QB1 candidate would be too bold for my taste against Arizona's No. 3 pass defense, but he's certainly settled in as one of the better QB2s going. He's an every-week starter in two-quarterback leagues. ... Rice can expect to be shadowed by Cards top CB Patrick Peterson Sunday in a difficult matchup that should render Rice more WR3 than the WR2 he's produced like. This game projects as low scoring, and I'd prefer to roll with someone like Kenny Britt, T.Y. Hilton, or Antonio Brown in this particular week.

Wilson's target distribution since Seattle's Week 11 bye: Rice 12, Tate 11, Zach Miller and Doug Baldwin 9, Marshawn Lynch 6. ... The low two-game target counts across the board are a reminder that the Seahawks throw the ball less frequently than any NFL team. On a weekly basis, relying on Seattle pass catchers can be risky business because there just isn't any volume. ... Tate has playmaking ability and a favorable matchup if Peterson sticks to Rice, but the fact that his week-to-week ceiling is about seven targets prevents Tate from realizing stable WR3 value. ... As is usually the case, the most likely means of Seattle generating offense in this game will be on the ground. Arizona ranks 24th against the run, and Lynch is the No. 6 overall fantasy running back. So get your Skittles ready.

Beanie Wells has managed 59 yards on his last 30 carries (1.97 YPC). He's looked as sluggish on the field as the stats suggest, and Wells needs to be on fantasy benches versus Seattle's top-12 run defense. ... Can the return of John Skelton spark Larry Fitzgerald? In Skelton's five starts this year, Fitz has averaged four catches for 46 yards with one touchdown. It's better production than Fitzgerald had with Ryan Lindley, at least. Seahawks RCB Brandon Browner's suspension makes Fitzgerald more interesting. If LCB Richard Sherman isn't employed in shadow coverage, Fitz will square off with Walter Thurmond III on plenty of Sunday's snaps. He's back on the WR3 radar. ... It's safe to write off Andre Roberts, Rob Housler, Michael Floyd, and Early Doucet for the remainder of fantasy season. They'll be more likely to let you down than help from here on out.

Score Prediction: Seahawks 23, Cardinals 10

New Orleans @ NY Giants

As you might expect, Saints-Giants has the highest over-under of Week 14 at 53 points. Ordinarily "borderline" fantasy starters like Martellus Bennett and Lance Moore should be upgraded on this week's cheatsheets, with your studs already locked in. ... Jimmy Graham's production sagged in Week 13 (4-59) because he spent much of the Thursday nighter chipping defensive ends due to blocking specialist TE David Thomas' absence. Thomas (knee) returned to full practices this week, which will free up Graham to run clean routes. The Giants have allowed the sixth most receptions and eighth most yards to tight ends. Expect a bounce-back game from Graham. ... Drew Brees was intercepted a career-high five times in last week's loss to Atlanta. Brees has thrown three or more interceptions on six occasions over the past five seasons. His combined stats in games coming off the three-plus-pick efforts are 154-of-212 (72.6 percent) for 1,697 yards (8.00 YPC), and a 15:4 TD-to-INT ratio. The Giants' talented defensive line is capable of causing New Orleans' passing offense problems, but their secondary is prone to blown coverages enough that Brees is far more likely to rebound from last week's clunker rather than play poorly again. Brees is the No. 4 fantasy quarterback, and New York ranks 22nd against the pass. Trot him out.

Marques Colston is on pace for 82 catches, 1,104 yards, and 11 touchdowns in what projects as the second best fantasy season of his seven-year career. He's a borderline WR1 in this possible shootout. ... Lance Moore's inconsistency makes him a difficult weekly projection, but he's cleared 90 yards or found pay dirt in three of his last four games and is paying off as a WR3 more often than not. ... Darren Sproles hasn't carried the football since he returned from his fractured hand two games ago. Sproles hasn't so much as gained a rushing yard since Week 7. He's staying on the weekly flex radar in PPR leagues with receiving value, but Sproles is no longer an appealing standard-league play. ... The Giants are vulnerable in run defense, ranking 21st in that category and allowing a generous 4.64 yards per carry. Unfortunately, neither Mark Ingram nor Chris Ivory has stepped forward as a reliable standard-scoring fantasy option. Ingram's carry total has dropped in three consecutive weeks, while Ivory has received double-digit rushing attempts just once all year. With bye weeks out of the way, Ingram and Ivory are no more than bench depth. ... Rounding out the Saints' logjam, four-man backfield, Pierre Thomas' week-to-week workloads have been totally unpredictable. Like Ivory and Ingram, Thomas is not worth a Week 14 fantasy start.

Keep an eye on Hakeem Nicks (knee) into Sunday morning, but most signs as this column was written early Friday afternoon suggested that the Giants expect him to play. They've also made an all-out effort to feature Nicks the past two weeks. Eli Manning's target distribution since the Week 11 bye: Nicks 23, Victor Cruz 14, Martellus Bennett 10, Ahmad Bradshaw 5, Rueben Randle 4. ... Even if the target totals indicate otherwise, Cruz is the strongest Giants receiver play in Week 14. Coming off a five-catch, 104-yard outing at Washington, Cruz will square off with a New Orleans defense that has struggled in slot coverage throughout the season. Saints top CBs Jabari Greer and Patrick Robinson play almost strictly on the perimeter. Rookie Corey White, Johnny Patrick, and special teamer Elbert Mack have been mixed and matched on the inside, with none of the three playing well. Cruz is a WR1 in this matchup. ... A healthy Bennett adds a dangerous element to the Giants' passing attack, and he looked rejuvenated against the Redskins, running at full-boar down the seam en route to five catches, 82 yards, and a TD. New Orleans allows the seventh most fantasy points to tight ends, and the high-scoring outlook for Saints-Giants makes Bennett a very attractive start. The Saints can't generate pass pressure without blitzing, so Bennett should run plenty of patterns rather than being forced to stay on the line to block for most of this game.

Since the Week 11 open date, Bradshaw has racked up 161 yards and a touchdown on 34 carries (4.74 YPC). His workload has increased with Andre Brown (fractured leg) no longer in the picture, and Bradshaw matches up with the Saints' last-ranked run defense in Week 14. He's an easy top-15 running back play. ... While the Week 11 bye seemingly worked wonders for Bradshaw, Eli's accuracy has continued to be an issue and I think it's fair to question whether he's 100 percent healthy. He's missing so many throws. Facing the NFL's No. 30 pass defense keeps Eli in the QB1 mix, but his actual on-field performance remains a long-term concern, for both forward-looking fantasy owners and the Giants' playoff hopes. New York has a brutal schedule down the stretch, heading to Atlanta and Baltimore in Weeks 15-16. The Giants also have the worst division record of the NFC East's three postseason contenders, which could come back to haunt them if they don't win three of their final four. ... Despite Brown's injury, the Giants showed no inclination to use first-round pick David Wilson as more than a change-up back during last week's loss to Washington. He toted it four times for nine yards and is merely a late-season fantasy stash.

Score Prediction: Giants 28, Saints 27

Sunday Night Football

Detroit @ Green Bay

Tight end-strapped fantasy owners should look no further than Tony Scheffler in Week 14. With Ryan Broyles and Titus Young both on injured reserve, Scheffler will be Detroit's No. 3 receiver at Green Bay, operating as a full-time wideout along with Calvin Johnson and Mike Thomas. He'll play extensively in the slot, matching up with linebackers and undrafted rookie S M.D. Jennings. Scheffler will also run a high volume of pass routes because Green Bay is so pass rush-deficient without OLB Clay Matthews (hamstring). In a potential shootout, Scheffler is a sneaky candidate to lead Detroit in receptions. ... Finally hitting a stride since midseason, Matthew Stafford has completed 159-of-270 passes for 1,986 yards (7.36 YPA), and an 11:5 TD-to-INT ratio with a 12th touchdown on a scramble over his last six games. Even without Broyles and Young, the Lions field a receiver corps capable of giving Green Bay's No. 17 pass defense matchup issues all across the formation. Stafford is the No. 8 fantasy quarterback and a locked-and-loaded QB1 in this game. ... Megatron needs to average 105.1 yards per game over the final month to break Jerry Rice's single-season yardage record (1,848) for a wide receiver. Johnson is averaging 158 since the end of October. ... Thomas is a desperation WR3 option in Week 14. Even with an increasing role, the underachieving former Jaguar has caught just three passes for 16 yards over the past two games.

Green Bay has allowed the seventh fewest tight-end fantasy points and held Brandon Pettigrew to four catches for 22 yards in these teams' mid-November meeting. I prefer Scheffler to Pettigrew if you're deciding between the two for Sunday night. ... Although Joique Bell (7-81, 3-21) outscored Mikel Leshoure (21-57-1, 2-16) in terms of Week 13 yardage, there is no changing of the guard in Detroit's backfield. The Lions' coaching staff has identified Leshoure as its primary, "sustainer" back who will continue to dominate early-down carries. Even if OC Scott Linehan’s pledge to increase his change-of-pace opportunities comes to fruition, Bell will remain a role player barring injury to Leshoure. Ultimately, Bell has received double-digit touches in just one of Detroit's last four games. Leshoure has averaged 18 touches per week over that same span, and is the lone Lions back worth a fantasy start against the Packers' No. 15 run defense.

Aaron Rodgers has owned the Lions in his career. Rodgers' statistics in the seven games he's played start to finish against Detroit: 155-of-222 (69.8 percent) for 2,066 yards (9.31 YPA), and an 18:4 TD-to-INT ratio. The Lions rank an unimposing 18th against the pass, so expect Rodgers to bust loose from his recent two-game mini-funk on Sunday Night Football. ... Rodgers' updated target distribution since Green Bay's Week 10 bye: Randall Cobb 25, Jermichael Finley 15, Jordy Nelson 10, Greg Jennings 8, John Kuhn 7, Alex Green and James Jones 6, James Starks 4, Donald Driver 1. ... Forget easing Jennings back from in-season groin surgery. The Packers need him too much. Nelson re-strained his hamstring in the first quarter of last week's win over the Vikings, so Jennings was thrust into an every-down role and led the Packers in targets (8). Fantasy owners who hung onto Jennings through the tough times may emerge looking awfully savvy with a top 15-20 receiver throughout the fantasy playoffs. ... Jones actually led all Green Bay receivers in Week 13 snaps played (83-of-84). Head scratchingly, he was targeted just twice. Jones flashed fantasy reliability when both Jennings and Nelson were hurt earlier in the season, but he'll be a weekly headache going forward. It's been the case for Jones for most of his career. He still offers a high ceiling and scoring potential matching up with a leaky Lions pass defense.

Finley has come on some, topping 50 yards in three straight games and efficiently securing 12-of-15 targets over that span for 177 yards and a touchdown. It's been inefficiency that historically discourages Rodgers from treating Finley as a featured part of Green Bay's passing attack, so perhaps he's turning a corner. Finley makes sense as a Sunday night matchup play because he posted a 3-66-1 line in these teams' Week 11 meeting, and the Lions have allowed the fifth most fantasy points to tight ends. ... Cobb's production has sagged along with Rodgers' the past two weeks, but Jennings' return should lock Cobb back into the slot-receiver role he's comfortable with after being shuffled around the formation in Weeks 12-13. "Randall's going to stay in the slot I'd assume," Rodgers said this week, "and Greg will be outside for the most part." Cobb is the one Packers player the Lions are least likely to contain on Sunday night. Shake off the two-game slowdown and start Cobb as a borderline WR1. ... Starks' multi-week knee injury leaves Green as the Packers' probable lead back. It just doesn't make him a fantasy starter. Green Bay never would have turned to Starks had Green capitalized on his midseason opportunity to be the feature runner, and a hot-hand committee is likely with Kuhn and newly re-signed Ryan Grant in the mix. The Packers' backfield is a fantasy football rattrap. Don't expect that to suddenly change.

Score Prediction: Packers 27, Lions 24

Monday Night Football

Houston @ New England

Injuries have taken their toll on a Houston pass defense that opened the season playing as well as any group. Gone are every-down LBs Brian Cushing (ACL) and Brooks Reed (groin), and feisty slot CB Brice McCain (foot). Top CB Johnathan Joseph (hamstring, groin) will be a game-time decision Monday night, and his effectiveness has been compromised when playing at less than 100 percent. Over their last three games, the Texans have allowed Chad Henne, Jake Locker, and Matthew Stafford to throw for a combined 1,104 yards on 139 attempts (7.94 YPA) and a 7:3 TD-to-INT ratio. Houston has plummeted to 19th in the league's pass defense rankings. By no stretch is this a daunting matchup for No. 2 overall fantasy quarterback Tom Brady. ... Brady's target distribution since Aaron Hernandez returned from an ankle injury two games ago: Wes Welker 28, Hernandez 16, Brandon Lloyd and Julian Edelman 6, Danny Woodhead 4, Daniel Fells and Shane Vereen 3. ... Only Jimmy Graham is a better tight end start than Hernandez this week. Coming off a 13-target game, Hernandez faces a Texans defense allowing the 12th most fantasy points to tight ends. ... Without McCain, Houston has little chance of slowing down Welker. Fill-in slot CB Brandon Harris got eaten up by the Titans' inside receivers after McCain's injury last week, and with Percy Harvin done for the year Welker stands alone as the NFL's best slot man.

Lloyd's attractiveness as a Week 14 fantasy play depends largely on Joseph's availability and efficacy. Odds are, Joseph will at least try to play. “He looked good," coach Gary Kubiak said of his top corner after Thursday's practice. "... Looked very explosive, looked good." While Lloyd's targets haven't been an issue over the course of the year, the Pats have struggled to get the football downfield accurately all season long. Even with Edelman (foot) out for the year, Lloyd is a dicey WR3. ... Vereen received just three carries, gaining 14 yards, in last week's win over Miami and his week-to-week role has been minimal outside of garbage time-heavy blowout victories. He's Stevan Ridley's handcuff and nothing more. ... Woodhead has eight touches or fewer in five consecutive games. Owners in the fantasy playoffs are hopefully aiming higher. ... The Patriots are without Rob Gronkowski and Edelman, and it's conceivable that a team so shorthanded in its pass-catching corps will look to emphasize the rushing game in a matchup with a Texans defense that isn't nearly as stout as its No. 2 run-defense ranking indicates. They surrender over 4.0 yards per carry, and their ranking is skewed by the fact that Houston has faced the fewest rushing attempts in the league. Carrying teams into the fantasy postseason, Ridley has scored a touchdown in five straight games while maintaining reliable workloads. Only seven NFL running backs have more carries this season.

Following back-to-back games of 48-plus pass attempts, Matt Schaub's 35-throw, 207-yard Week 13 effort was more along the lines of what owners should expect from the glorified game manager week in and week out. Of course, matching up with the high-octane Patriots may well require the Texans to ask more of Schaub as a pure thrower on Monday Night Football. New England leads the NFL in total offense and points scored, and Houston will likely have to sling it around the yard to keep up. Consider Schaub a viable low-end QB1 in Week 14. It certainly doesn't hurt that the Patriots rank 29th against the pass. ... Andre Johnson is quietly on pace for 1,486 receiving yards, which would be the third highest sum of his Hall-of-Fame ten-year career. It will be interesting to see whether the Pats leave Johnson manned up on Aqib Talib. Johnson can win that matchup. ... New England has struggled in pass coverage at linebacker and safety all season long, surrendering the most yardage and second most fantasy points in the league to tight ends. Jimmy Graham and Aaron Hernandez are the only Week 14 tight end plays superior to Owen Daniels.

Schaub's updated target distribution since Houston's Week 8 bye: Johnson 60, Daniels 35, Kevin Walter 25, Garrett Graham 21, Arian Foster 19, James Casey 16. ... Behind Johnson and Daniels, the ball doesn't go to the Texans' other pass catchers regularly enough for consistent production out of the likes of Walter, Graham, Casey, and Lestar Jean. None of them is rosterable in re-draft leagues. ... The Patriots' defensive strength is versus the run, where they rank in the league's top nine and permit under 4.0 yards per rushing attempt. Foster, of course, remains the NFL's premier workhorse and is a weekly must-start even in difficult matchups. No player has collected more fantasy points through 12 games. ... Justin Forsett is staying ahead of Ben Tate on the Texans' running back depth chart for the time being, although neither Houston backup is start-able in fantasy leagues. Forsett's 14 carries last week were attributable to a comfortable early lead over the Titans. Don't expect the Texans to go up by two touchdowns early in this game. Meanwhile, Tate is still working his way into game shape. He does figure to retake the No. 2 spot behind Foster before the season ends.

Score Prediction: Patriots 30, Texans 27