Week 15 Rankings

WR Notes: Calvin Johnson has 30 receptions of 20+ yards this season. The Vikings have 21 such catches. All signs out of Arizona suggest the Cardinals will allow Patrick Peterson to check Johnson in man coverage. While Peterson’s size and athleticism make for a fascinating matchup, no cornerback can single-handedly shut down Megatron with Matthew Stafford throwing more frequently than any QB in the NFL.

The NFL’s best receiver in the first half of the season, A.J. Green is coming off what may have been his worst performance as a pro. He had a costly penalty and two drops, including a potential touchdown that would have been the difference in the game. Green certainly won’t lack for motivation this week against an Eagles defense that has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Even better, Philadelphia is 31st in pass defense against No. 1 receivers.

Only eight receivers have 1,075+ yards this season. Brandon Marshall has 1,086 more receiving yards than the next closestBears player. Just as telling, Marshall’s 1,342 receiving yards are more than the next seven Bears combined. It’s no surprise that he’s been targeted on 39 percent of the Bears’ attempts this year. … Andre Johnson and Vincent Jackson both have excellent matchups against defenses that rank in the top-four in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. … Over his mini-slump, Cruz played as well as he has all year in last week’s win over the Saints.

Reggie Wayne has drawn 8+ targets in all but one game this season. … Marques Colston is due for a breakout game in the best matchup he will see this year. … Danario Alexander signed with the Chargers in Week 8. He already has roughly the same number of fantasy points as Larry Fitzgerald and Hakeem Nicks. Over the past five weeks, only Calvin Johnson and Dez Bryant have more fantasy points. Extrapolated to 16 games, it would be fair to expect a stat line of 75/1,270/11 from the freakishly athletic DX.

Roddy White has never missed a game. I will be shocked if that streak ends in a marquee matchup with the team that knocked him out of the playoffs last year. … With 223 receiving yards over the final three games, Randall Cobb will become the first player in NFL history to reach 1,000 yards apiece receiving and on kickoff returns. How has Cobb managed to emerge as Aaron Rodgers’ go-to receiver? Simple, explains Rodgers, “It’s because he’s open. When there is a pure progression read, he’s the guy who has been open.”

The Cowboys desperately need Dez Bryant to play through his fractured finger. The offense averages 6.0 yards per play with Bryant on the field this season compared to 3.2 yards without him. "It's an easy argument to make that Dez Bryant is among the four best wide receivers in the NFL talent-wise," says NFL Films analyst Greg Cosell. “That’s a big man, and he [has run] by people like they were standing still. You’re dealing with a big-time wide receiver.” I don’t think Dallas would give Bryant the green light unless they believed he can catch passes with his finger in a splint. Do I trust him not to be used as a decoy? As much as I trust any receiver listed below him in the rankings. You need big games to win in the fantasy playoffs. Nobody has had more big games the past month than Bryant.

Steve Smith took turns stealing lunch money from Dunta Robinson and Chris Houston in another dominant performance against the Falcons last week, his second straight 100-yard performance. … Drop Pierre Garcon to the 26-28 range if Kirk Cousins ends up starting for the Redskins. … Danny Amendola is back on the WR2 radar after putting in a full practice on Friday. … The majority of Mike Wallace’s production came in garbage time last week, but he just missed a pair of big plays downfield early in the game. His upside is worth the risk with Big Ben back under center.

Now that Josh Gordon has emerged as a more complete receiver as opposed to a situational deep threat, the Browns are poised to become the first team since the 1968 Bills with a rookie leading the team in yards at quarterback, running back, and wide receiver. … Cecil Shorts is good to go this week, but his quarterback has taken a step back since the last time he played a full game. … Torrey Smith is expected to see more than his fair share of Champ Bailey this week. … Ditto Stevie Johnson and Richard Sherman, who has been the NFL’s top cornerback this season.

Coach Mike Munchak said before last week’s game that he wanted Jake Locker and Kenny Britt to develop chemistry. The duo responded with eight catches for 143 yards, more than doubling Britt’s season-high in yards. I would hesitate to declare Britt “back” as a reliable fantasy asset, though. Both of his 46-yard grabs last week came with a defender on his hip, so it’s not like he’s gaining easy separation. Britt also has a tough matchup this week against Antonio Cromartie.

Over the past four games, the Cardinals offense has produced seven touchdowns -- three for themselves and four for the opposition. Just how bad are Arizona’s QBs? Over the past four weeks, Larry Fitzgerald has as many receptions (6) as his QBs have interceptions on throws in his direction. Fitz’s season is reminiscent of the lost years of Randy Moss (2006) under Andrew Walter/Aaron Brooks and Steve Smith (2007, 2010) under Testaverde/Carr/Moore/Clausen/St. Pierre.

It’s hardly a surprise that Jeremy Maclin and Jason Avant are coming off their best statistical games of the season against a defense that allows an NFL-worst 312 passing yards per game. Maclin has been hit-or-miss since Nick Foles took over, reaching 12+ targets and 90+ yards in two games while being held under 60 yards in the other three.  In four career 100-yard performances, Avant has averaged 20 yards the following week. I’d play Riley Cooper over the Eagles’ possession receiver.

Sunday Update: Dropped Pierre Garcon from WR2 to a more risky WR3 with an unknown entity starting at QB for the Redskins. Bumped T.Y. Hilton slightly in a good matchup with Johnathan Joseph covering Reggie Wayne all over the field. 

Last updated at 12:25 p.m. ET on Sunday, Dec. 16, 2012.

Cam Newton became the first player in NFL history with 250+ passing yards, 100+ rushing yards and a touchdown apiece on the ground and through the air in last week’s upset of the Falcons. 

Over the past three weeks, he has a 62.2 completion rate, a 7:0 TD-to-INT ratio, and a 121.8 passer rating while averaging 10 more fantasy points than the next-closest QB. His yards per attempt, yards per completion, passer rating and TD-to-INT rate are all higher this year than in his magical rookie season.

Newton is also on pace for a higher fantasy finish this year than last, currently ranking second in standard-scoring legs. Keep him rolling against the Chargers this week. He could end up carrying you to the title after all. 

Good luck in your fantasy playoffs. 

Week 15 Quarterbacks

QB Notes: In his past three games, Drew Brees has a 4:9 TD-to-INT ratio with a completion percentage under 60. He’s been especially lousy on passes of 10+ yards downfield, which is where the Bucs defense struggles. I expect Brees to get back on track in a shootout as the Saints and Bucs are first and second in fantasy points allowed to QBs. The last six QBs to face Tampa Bay have averaged 28 fantasy points per game.

Look for Peyton Manning to attack the middle of the field at Baltimore with the Ravens potentially missing three starting linebackers. … The Patriots’ 36.3 points per game is the second-highest figure in the NFL since 1950. Tom Brady has accomplished that gaudy figure against opposing defenses that collectively rank No. 2 in the league this season. ... Andrew Luck is facing a Texans defense that has surrendered an average of nearly 30 fantasy points per game to QBs over the past month. 

Even after being held in check by the Cowboys last week, Andy Dalton still has a shot to break Carson Palmer’s single-season franchise record of 32 touchdowns. A trip to Philadelphia will cure what ails a struggling passer. Since Todd Bowles took over as defensive coordinator, opposing QBs are 130-of-186 (70 percent) for 1,508 yards (8.1 YPA) and 18 touchdowns without an interception. Last week was the first time under Bowles that the Eagles did not allow 28+ points.

Josh Freeman’s past games against the Saints have produced the following numbers: 65.1 completion rate, 1,259 yards (315 per), 8:0 TD-to-INT ratio, and 110.5 passer rating. Matt Ryan in Week 13 and Matt Cassel in Week 3 are the only QBs not to reach 20 fantasy points on the Saints this season. … The Eli Manning-Matt Ryan matchup has plenty of shootout appeal of its own. We know the Falcons can run the ball effectively.

Reasons to doubt Aaron Rodgers: The Packers have skewed more heavily toward the ground game over the past month. The Bears run defense is allowing 144.6 yards per over the past six weeks, up exponentially from 77.6 through Week 8. Rodgers’ offense has averaged 2.6 touchdowns this season, down from 3.8 last year. He has just two passing scores in his past three games and hasn’t seen 300 yards in a game since Week 7. Rodgers has attempted more than 30 passes just once in the second half of the season. Over the past five weeks, he’s 22nd in fantasy points per game. Reasons to believe in Aaron Rodgers: He’s the most gifted all-around QB in the league and can explode for a monster fantasy game on any given Sunday.  

Remember when Mike Shanahan okey-doked the entire league by keeping Robert Griffin III under wraps for the entire preseason only to unleash him on the Saints in the opener? It sure seems like there’s similar gamesmanship at play this week. Shanny admitted early in the week that he would keep the Browns in the dark, but I still have a hard time believing RGIII won’t play. I have a similarly hard time believing he will be a legit threat with his legs, which is where he derives a good portion of his fantasy value. Kirk Cousins would not be a top-25 fantasy option if he ends up starting against a suddenly stout Browns defense.  

Matchups guru Evan Silva expects Colin Kaepernick to attack the Patriots aggressively in effort to keep pace with Tom Brady. ... Romo’s best receiver may be a question mark in terms of effectiveness this week, but that is offset by the Steelers’ injury-depleted cornerbacks. … Lions OC Scott Linehan believes Matthew Stafford is on track to become “one of the best QBs to ever play the position.” That may be the case, but he’s not a strong fantasy play with five of his top six preseason passing-game weapons out against Arizona’s shut-down pass defense.

Flacco has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in five of the past seven games, in large part because deposed coordinator Cam Cameron didn’t give him many easy throws. Flacco’s questionable internal clock could come into play against Von Miller & Co. this week. … Don’t worry about the weather factor for Russell Wilson; the Bills are hosting the Seahawks indoors at the Rogers Centre in Toronto. … Ben Roethlisberger just missed a trio of deep balls off his receivers’ fingertips after escaping pressure last week. The concern, however, is that the Steelers couldn’t move the ball until the Chargers relaxed their defense in garbage time. The Bolts’ front seven caved in Pittsburgh’s offensive line throughout the afternoon.

Nick Foles did an excellent job of scrambling to throw for big plays down the field last week with the Bucs constantly flushing him from the pocket. While it was a highly promising start against the league’s worst pass defense, the concern is that Foles was sacked six times by a mediocre pass rush. He will have his hands full Thursday night against a Geno Atkins-led Bengals that leads the NFL with 42 sacks.

What’s gotten into Ryan Tannehill? Coach Joe Philbin is blaming the receivers’ inability to separate, which essentially morphs the entire field into an area the size of the red zone. On the other hand, NFL Films analyst Greg Cosell has noticed a dropoff in Tannehill’s accuracy. ESPN’s Adam Schefter goes a step further: “I haven’t walked away from a Miami Dolphins game in a good month, saying, ‘That quarterback was really impressive.”

Sunday Update: Bumped Matt Ryan, Eli Manning for shootout potential with both secondaries banged up. Bumped Ben Roethlisberger slightly. Removed Robert Griffin III, added Kirk Cousins. There are only about six legit QB1s this week, as the next dozen are a crapshoot.

Week 15 Running Backs 

RB Notes: A more patient runner this year with a dominant lead-blocker, Adrian Peterson has 1,101 rushing yards over the past seven weeks, which is more than the Jaguars, Raiders, Cowboys, and Cardinals have for the entire season. Over the last 28 years, CJ2K is the only back with more yards (1,112) over a seven-game span (Walter Payton holds the records with 1,152). Think it took awhile for Peterson to round into form this season? In the first eight games, he had just 42 yards outside the tackles compared to 393 on 28 rushes (14.0 YPC) over the past five weeks. If Peterson maintains his 157.3-yard average from the last seven games, he will finish with 2,072 yards -- 35 shy of Eric Dickerson’s record. The Rams can’t stop this train.

The Saints defense has given a double-digit fantasy performance to a running back every game but Week 10 versus the Falcons. … Peterson has rushed for 278 more yards in his last four games than Arian Foster has in his last five. Over that five-game stretch, Foster’s per-carry average is just 3.44 and his per-reception average is a paltry 4.5. In short, it’s hard to find a less effective per-play NFL starter. As long as he keeps getting heavy workloads and goal-line opportunities, it’s not a concern in redraft fantasy playoffs.

Jamaal Charles is second in rushing yards and fourth in fantasy points over the past five weeks, topping the century mark in all five. After regaining the AFC rushing lead, Charles is now on pace for a career-high 1,505 yards. … Marshawn Lynch faces his former team indoors in the cozy confines of the Rogers Centre. Lynch has essentially been 85 percent of Adrian Peterson this season. … Ray Rice has averaged 22.5 touches over the past six weeks. Don’t expect a major bump in value with Jim Caldwell replacing Cam Cameron. … You knew you were getting BenJarvus Green-Ellis’ homerun-hitting ability when you drafted Trent Richardson, right?  

C.J. Spiller has 11 runs of 20 yards or longer, second in the league behind only Peterson’s 18. Last week was first time since early October that Spiller did not have double-digit fantasy points in a game. Now that Fred Jackson is out, the off game isn’t going to happen again. Going forward, Spiller will “take almost all of the snaps until he gets tired.” Don’t put too much stock in the magical 20-carry figure being bandied about. As the always insightful @RumfordJohnny points out, Spiller has proven he can “make hobo chili out of table scraps.”

Perhaps David Wilson should fall asleep to highlights of Bo Jackson the night before every game. After doing so last week, Wilson exploded for a franchise-record 327 net yards while becoming the first player in NFL history with 200+ kickoff return yards and 100+ rushing yards as well as joining Maurice Jones-Drew as the only players since 1950 with two rushing scores and a kickoff return touchdown in the same game. With Ahmad Bradshaw out, Wilson is in store for a heavyearly-downworkload against a Falcons defense allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing backs. Wilson is the rare homerun threat who can also power his way between the tackles.

The Eagles apparently didn’t believe Brown could succeed between the tackles against the Bucs’ No. 1 run defense. Brown was directed outside on the majority of his Week 14 runs, only to be met by a wall of defenders. The rookie credits the Bucs’ stunts for shutting him down. The Bengals defense presents a prime opportunity for a bounce-back game. Cincinnati ranks 26th in Football Outsiders run defense DVOA and has allowed the 13th-most fantasy points to opposing backs. … BenJarvus Green-Ellis has averaged 109 rushing yards over the last four games after being held to 59.7 over the first nine. Only Adrian Peterson and Jamaal Charles have more yards over that span. The Lawfirm faces an Eagles defense that has allowed 100+ yards in nine consecutive games.

We’ve had Ryan Mathews ranked all week as if Ronnie Brown (doubtful, hamstring) would be out. The Chargers reportedly want Mathews “heavily involved” a week after handling a season-high 25 carries behind an injury-depleted offensive line at Pittsburgh. Mathews did a fine job of grinding for tough yardage last week even if the big plays weren’t there against a stout front seven. I have no reservations in recommending him as a high-end RB2 against a Panthers defense that has allowed 150+ rushing yards in three of the past four games.

The Jets’ newfound emphasis on the ground ‘n’ pound attack has produced a pair of top-20 fantasy backs over the past five weeks. Shonn Greene, who has more carries than Chris Johnson or Ray Rice this season, is a good bet for a heavy workload with Bilal Powell nursing a sore toe. It’s a fine matchup against a Titans defense allowing the third-most fantasy points to opposing backs.

Frank Gore and Stevan Ridley both have tough matchups in the same game. They remain solid RB2 plays due to their consistency this season. … Workhorse Knowshon Moreno faces a Baltimore defense allowing the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing backs. … Steven Jackson has been a top-10 fantasy back over the past five weeks. … Darren McFadden’s ankle is a non-issue this week.

Team Rotoworld is split on Chris Johnson’s prospects this week. Matchups guru Evan Silva likes Johnson’s speed against the Jets’ slow-motion front seven. I don’t like what I’ve seen from Johnson since his offensive linemen started dropping like flies three weeks ago. He’s been dancing at the line again, hesitant to hit what few open holes he does see. Johnson is just 31st in fantasy points over the past three weeks. As always, he’s the quintessential boom-or-bust fantasy back.

The Dolphins finally decided to line up Reggie Bush as a receiver last week against a stingy defense. Who knows if they will try it again versus the Jaguars? … Good luck guessing between Lions backs. Bell has been more productive of late while Leshoure has been indecisive. I can’t escape the feeling that the Lions will turn to Leshoure to kill the clock with a second-half lead. The Cardinals have allowed four 100-yard rushers in the past three weeks. … Vick Ballard is a good bet for 18-20 touches with Donald Brown and Delone Carter out.

Falcons GM Thomas Dimitroff is not only an excellent executive but also one of the most fascinating individuals in the NFL. That said, he may end up costing the Falcons a Super Bowl with his failure to cut the cord on an obviously washed-up Michael Turner, who can no longer move the chains, sustain a rushing attack, or consistently convert short-yardage attempts. … Alex Green has averaged 4.57 yards on his last 46 carries after being held to 2.88 yards per on his first 76 totes this season. The Packers may have found somethingspecial in change-of-pace back DuJuan Harris, but he’s unlikely to make a fantasy impact outside of playoffs leagues.

Week 15 Wide Receivers 

WR Notes: Calvin Johnson has 30 receptions of 20+ yards this season. The Vikings have 21 such catches. All signs out of Arizona suggest the Cardinals will allow Patrick Peterson to check Johnson in man coverage. While Peterson’s size and athleticism make for a fascinating matchup, no cornerback can single-handedly shut down Megatron with Matthew Stafford throwing more frequently than any QB in the NFL.

The NFL’s best receiver in the first half of the season, A.J. Green is coming off what may have been his worst performance as a pro. He had a costly penalty and two drops, including a potential touchdown that would have been the difference in the game. Green certainly won’t lack for motivation this week against an Eagles defense that has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Even better, Philadelphia is 31st in pass defense against No. 1 receivers.

Only eight receivers have 1,075+ yards this season. Brandon Marshall has 1,086 more receiving yards than the next closestBears player. Just as telling, Marshall’s 1,342 receiving yards are more than the next seven Bears combined. It’s no surprise that he’s been targeted on 39 percent of the Bears’ attempts this year. … Andre Johnson and Vincent Jackson both have excellent matchups against defenses that rank in the top-four in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. … Over his mini-slump, Cruz played as well as he has all year in last week’s win over the Saints.

Reggie Wayne has drawn 8+ targets in all but one game this season. … Marques Colston is due for a breakout game in the best matchup he will see this year. … Danario Alexander signed with the Chargers in Week 8. He already has roughly the same number of fantasy points as Larry Fitzgerald and Hakeem Nicks. Over the past five weeks, only Calvin Johnson and Dez Bryant have more fantasy points. Extrapolated to 16 games, it would be fair to expect a stat line of 75/1,270/11 from the freakishly athletic DX.

Roddy White has never missed a game. I will be shocked if that streak ends in a marquee matchup with the team that knocked him out of the playoffs last year. … With 223 receiving yards over the final three games, Randall Cobb will become the first player in NFL history to reach 1,000 yards apiece receiving and on kickoff returns. How has Cobb managed to emerge as Aaron Rodgers’ go-to receiver? Simple, explains Rodgers, “It’s because he’s open. When there is a pure progression read, he’s the guy who has been open.”

The Cowboys desperately need Dez Bryant to play through his fractured finger. The offense averages 6.0 yards per play with Bryant on the field this season compared to 3.2 yards without him. "It's an easy argument to make that Dez Bryant is among the four best wide receivers in the NFL talent-wise," says NFL Films analyst Greg Cosell. “That’s a big man, and he [has run] by people like they were standing still. You’re dealing with a big-time wide receiver.” I don’t think Dallas would give Bryant the green light unless they believed he can catch passes with his finger in a splint. Do I trust him not to be used as a decoy? As much as I trust any receiver listed below him in the rankings. You need big games to win in the fantasy playoffs. Nobody has had more big games the past month than Bryant.

Steve Smith took turns stealing lunch money from Dunta Robinson and Chris Houston in another dominant performance against the Falcons last week, his second straight 100-yard performance. … Drop Pierre Garcon to the 26-28 range if Kirk Cousins ends up starting for the Redskins. … Danny Amendola is back on the WR2 radar after putting in a full practice on Friday. … The majority of Mike Wallace’s production came in garbage time last week, but he just missed a pair of big plays downfield early in the game. His upside is worth the risk with Big Ben back under center.

Now that Josh Gordon has emerged as a more complete receiver as opposed to a situational deep threat, the Browns are poised to become the first team since the 1968 Bills with a rookie leading the team in yards at quarterback, running back, and wide receiver. … Cecil Shorts is good to go this week, but his quarterback has taken a step back since the last time he played a full game. … Torrey Smith is expected to see more than his fair share of Champ Bailey this week. … Ditto Stevie Johnson and Richard Sherman, who has been the NFL’s top cornerback this season.

Coach Mike Munchak said before last week’s game that he wanted Jake Locker and Kenny Britt to develop chemistry. The duo responded with eight catches for 143 yards, more than doubling Britt’s season-high in yards. I would hesitate to declare Britt “back” as a reliable fantasy asset, though. Both of his 46-yard grabs last week came with a defender on his hip, so it’s not like he’s gaining easy separation. Britt also has a tough matchup this week against Antonio Cromartie.

Over the past four games, the Cardinals offense has produced seven touchdowns -- three for themselves and four for the opposition. Just how bad are Arizona’s QBs? Over the past four weeks, Larry Fitzgerald has as many receptions (6) as his QBs have interceptions on throws in his direction. Fitz’s season is reminiscent of the lost years of Randy Moss (2006) under Andrew Walter/Aaron Brooks and Steve Smith (2007, 2010) under Testaverde/Carr/Moore/Clausen/St. Pierre.

It’s hardly a surprise that Jeremy Maclin and Jason Avant are coming off their best statistical games of the season against a defense that allows an NFL-worst 312 passing yards per game. Maclin has been hit-or-miss since Nick Foles took over, reaching 12+ targets and 90+ yards in two games while being held under 60 yards in the other three.  In four career 100-yard performances, Avant has averaged 20 yards the following week. I’d play Riley Cooper over the Eagles’ possession receiver.

Sunday Update: Dropped Pierre Garcon from WR2 to a more risky WR3 with an unknown entity starting at QB for the Redskins. Bumped T.Y. Hilton slightly in a good matchup with Johnathan Joseph covering Reggie Wayne all over the field. 

Week 15 Tight Ends 

TE Notes: Jermaine Gresham is fifth in fantasy points over the past five weeks and ninth on the season. He faces an Eagles defense allowing the 22nd-most fantasy points to tight ends. … Brent Celek (concussion) will miss his first game since entering the league in 2007, which means Clay Harbor will make his first career start. Harbor caught all six of his targets last week for 52 yards and a touchdown after Celek went down. He has a nice matchup against a Bengals defense surrendering the 10th-most fantasy points to tight ends.

Week 15 Team Defense 

Sunday Update: Bumped Browns D/ST with backup Kirk Cousins starting for RGIII.

Week 15 Kickers