Washington @ Cleveland
The 7-6 Redskins are one game behind the 8-5 Giants in the NFC East. Washington has a win over New York and the best record in the division -- both key for tiebreaker purposes -- and might quietly be the NFL's most dangerous cusp-playoff team right now. "I think that's a team that is starting to figure out how to win," ESPN's Eric Mangini said of the Redskins this week. "There's a real belief in their quarterback. And, sometimes, that's the most important thing." The Skins are in the thick of a playoff chase, and Robert Griffin III is expected to play Sunday regardless of his questionable tag. He should be available to fantasy owners, but needs to be downgraded on cheatsheets due to the threat of decreased mobility and fewer read-option runs. ... Washington's Week 15 response to RG3's LCL sprain still figures to be conservative, protecting Griffin as best they can and confining him to the pocket. This projects as an Alfred Morris-heavy game. With 698 yards on his last 138 carries (5.06 YPC), Morris is certainly performing in a manner that suggests he can shoulder an offensive load. Oakland and Kansas City halfbacks tagged Cleveland for 258 yards on 40 rushing attempts (6.45 YPC) in Weeks 13-14, so Morris' matchup is unimposing. Proceed with caution on RG3 as a mid-range to low-level QB1, but Morris should be locked into lineups as a candidate for 25-30 carries.
Friday Update: FOX Sports' Jay Glazer reported Friday that Griffin "truly is a game-time decision," while D.C. beat writers noted that RG3 didn't look 100 percent during Friday's pre-practice drills. Griffin will try to play at Cleveland, but the confidence in him doing so doesn't seem as strong late in the week as it was on Wednesday and Thursday. Coach Mike Shanahan indicated that he expects to know whether Griffin will play, for sure, by Saturday. Per Glazer, rookie Kirk Cousins took all of the first-team reps throughout the practice week and has 50:50 odds to get the nod.
Griffin's target distribution since Pierre Garcon returned from a foot injury following the Redskins' Week 10 bye: Garcon 29, Josh Morgan 18, Santana Moss and Leonard Hankerson 10, Logan Paulsen 8, Niles Paul 3, and Aldrick Robinson 2. ... Even if the use of pistol-option plays are dumbed down or scrapped as Griffin is nursed back in, the Redskins still figure to take their shots downfield, complementing the run-first design. Griffin's injury and Browns top CB Joe Haden's likely shadow coverage drop Garcon from WR2 to WR3 status in Week 15, but the Skins will continue to look to hit him on bombs and across the middle, where Garcon does some of his best work. ... The remainder of Washington pass catchers lack fantasy value. Griffin is only averaging 27 pass attempts per game, and the low-volume passing attack has proven incapable of supporting more than one consistently fantasy-relevant receiver.
Friday Update: If Cousins indeed gets the start, Garcon's fantasy outlook will become quite shaky. He'd have to get free from Haden's coverage with a lesser thrower of the football under center, in an undoubtedly less explosive offense. Garcon is a high-end WR3/flex if Griffin starts. If it's Cousins, downgrade Garcon to low-end WR3 option.
Hitting a late-season stride, Cleveland's offense has impressed Greg Cosell of NFL Films on tape. "They're 5-3 in their last eight," Cosell noted this week. "Their offense has become extremely stable and consistent. They run the ball every week. Trent Richardson gets his 20-plus carries. Brandon Weeden gets his throws. They get the ball downfield because Weeden has a good arm. It's become a very stable, consistent offense that for the most part does the same thing every week." The Browns have an appealing Week 15 matchup versus a Washington defense that struggles to rush the passer and cover, setting up Josh Gordon as a high-ceiling fantasy start. Gordon has clearly separated himself as Cleveland's go-to receiver, and is a good bet for a long pass play when one of Redskins DC Jim Haslett's blitzes doesn't get home, leaving the back end vulnerable. ... Weeden's target distribution since Cleveland's Week 10 bye: Gordon 33, Ben Watson 25, Greg Little 20, Richardson 19, Jordan Cameron 11, Mohamed Massaquoi 9. ... Watson is worth a look for tight end-desperate owners. The targets have been there for Watson in recent games, and Washington has allowed the most fantasy points in the league to tight ends.
Little's on-field performance has picked up since a brutal, drop-filled beginning to the season. Pro Football Focus hasn't charted Little with a dropped pass since Week 5, and he's been noticeably physical and productive running after the catch the past two games. Little isn't a standalone Week 15 fantasy option beyond deeper leagues, but his improvement boosts the outlook of Weeden as a mid-range to arguably high-end two-quarterback league play in an already favorable matchup. ... Pace-change back Montario Hardesty essentially came out of nowhere to lead Cleveland in Week 14 rushing, ripping off 52 yards on 10 carries against the Chiefs. The yardage total was the fourth highest of Hardesty's 19-game career. Hardesty deserves a figurative butt-pat for playing well off the bench behind Richardson last week, but isn't in the Week 15 start discussion against the Skins.
Score Prediction: Redskins 23, Browns 20
Tampa Bay @ New Orleans
For a Saints offense struggling to find any rhythm the past two weeks, a Superdomed date with Tampa's No. 32 pass defense will serve as a slump buster. Drew Brees shredded the Bucs for 377 yards and four TDs on 27-of-37 passing in these clubs' October meeting, and that was before the Bucs traded top CB Aqib Talib and lost fellow starter Eric Wright to suspension. Brees owners need to have short memories, shrug off Weeks 13-14, and start him as a top-two quarterback play. ... What's wrong with Jimmy Graham? What's wrong with Marques Colston? The issue isn't those particular players. It's been New Orleans' pass offense as a whole. Brees has a 1:7 TD-to-INT ratio over his last two games, road losses to the Giants and Falcons. Graham and Colston will be fine when the overall pass-game production picks up, and there's every reason to believe it will in the most favorable matchup the Saints get all year. "I would expect Brees and this pass game to very, very effective against this defense," NFL Films' Greg Cosell said this week. "They'll dictate matchups. I think the matchups favor them. ... I would expect Brees to have a very big game this week." Short memories. Start Graham as the best tight end in fantasy. Colston racked up seven catches for 73 yards and a score in the Week 7 game, and he's every bit worth a WR2 start versus Tampa. ... Brees' target distribution during his two-game slump: Graham and Darren Sproles 16, Colston and Lance Moore 15, Pierre Thomas 9, Devery Henderson 7, Joe Morgan 4.
Streak-route specialist Morgan secured his two Week 14 targets for 106 yards and is averaging a redonkulous 44.3 yards per reception on the year. Lightly targeted and yet to catch more than two balls in any game this season, Morgan is too unreliable for fantasy semifinals week. ... Moore burned the Bucs for 121 yards on nine catches in Week 7, and the attractiveness of his Week 15 matchup is obvious. When the Saints' offense is humming, it is capable of supporting big fantasy games from Graham, Colston, and Moore. It should hum against Tampa. Moore is a respectable WR3. ... I discussed the style of attack with which the Bucs dominate opposing ground games in Thursday's Bengals-Eagles Matchups primer. Tampa has the best run defense in the league, and it isn't close. Due to the brutal matchup, fantasy owners would be smart to write off Mark Ingram and Pierre Thomas as Week 15 fantasy considerations. Chris Ivory is out with a hamstring injury. ... Because Sproles is not utilized as a traditional halfback -- he's almost strictly a "satellite" player who does his damage in space -- Sproles is the one Saints running back who should be inserted into PPR fantasy lineups as a Week 15 flex starter. Sproles has only 31 rushing attempts on the season, however, and is less appealing in standard settings. He's rushed for a touchdown just once in his last 11 games.
So much for the Rookie Wall. Doug Martin got off the schneid in Week 14 following a two-game yards-per-carry lull, rushing 28 times for 128 yards and a touchdown in Tampa Bay's loss to the Eagles. The every-down back chipped in three receptions. With Josh Freeman struggling mightily in the passing game, Martin was the Bucs' most effective offensive player. Martin touched up New Orleans' 32nd-ranked run defense for 122 yards and an end-zone trip in the Week 7 meeting, and that was before his breakout stretch. Consider Muscle Hamster a top-eight RB1 in this mouth-watering matchup. ... The Bucs' offense as a whole is very run-game reliant. Play-action vertical strikes to Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams depend on an effective rushing attack to keep a defensive safety close to the line of scrimmage. This explains why Freeman's box-score stats have sagged when Martin has been stifled this year. When all the elements are clicking, though, Tampa can field a top-ten NFL offense in the run-to-pass design. I think Martin is a good bet for Week 15 rushing success, thus opening up the passing game for downfield strikes. Freeman is a top-ten QB1 against New Orleans' No. 30 pass defense. ... Freeman's target distribution over the past three games: Jackson 25, Williams 24, Tiquan Underwood 19, Dallas Clark 14, Martin 11.
V-Jax obliterated the Saints for 216 yards and a touchdown on seven catches in Week 7. The No. 4 overall fantasy receiver, Jackson is an elite fantasy playoffs start. ... On pace for just 906 yards and 57 receptions, Williams' weekly production has been highly touchdown dependent. When he hasn't scored this season, Williams has averaged three catches for 51 yards per game. Start Williams if you think he'll discover pay dirt this week. I'd call him a slightly better than 50:50 bet. ... Continuing to hover around 50 percent of the offensive snaps, Clark is an underwhelming fantasy option on a weekly basis, needing to catch breaks like pass-happy comeback mode in order to prove a worthwhile play. The Saints have allowed the eighth most fantasy points to tight ends, but that statistic is less meaningful for TEs who are complementary role players like Clark.
Score Prediction: Saints 31, Bucs 27
Indianapolis @ Houston
Andrew Luck has an 18:18 TD-to-INT ratio as a passer this season. He has lost five fumbles and completed a Sanchezian 49.7 percent of this throws in his last four games. But a 9-4 record fuels his hype train, and Luck has been a steady if low-end fantasy QB1 due to sheer volume. Matthew Stafford is the only NFL quarterback with more pass attempts, and Luck leads the league in 20-plus-yard completions, benefiting from comeback mode and Bruce Arians' vertical passing attack. This game will be played beneath Reliant Stadium's retractable roof, and the Texans' sputtering pass defense keeps Luck in the top-dozen QB conversation. Houston has allowed 1,400 combined yards on 174 attempts (8.05 YPA), 11 touchdowns, and three interceptions to Stafford, Chad Henne, Tom Brady, and Jake Locker in its last four games. ... Luck's target distribution over the last month: Reggie Wayne 51, Donnie Avery 35, T.Y. Hilton 29, Dwayne Allen 25, LaVon Brazill 10, Vick Ballard 7, Coby Fleener 6. ... Allen was a fun midseason pluck-and-play matchup-based tight end, but he's off the re-draft league radar with Fleener back. Allen's target total has sunk in three straight games. Allen and Fleener are canceling each other out in fantasy football.
The Texans have only intermittently employed Johnathan Joseph in shadow coverage of No. 1 wide receivers this year, and Wayne moves around the formation too often for defenses to easily track. In previous dates with shadow corners Sean Smith and Antonio Cromartie, Wayne racked up stat lines of 7-78-1 and 5-87. Start Wayne with confidence. ... Although Avery is an every-down player in a high-volume passing offense, he's inevitably prone to inconsistency as a lightweight speed receiver who plays without physicality. Avery has been held under 40 yards in three of his last four games. He won't be a recommended WR3 start in Week 15 or 16. ... Hilton's on-field role is less reliable than Avery's, but the rookie is willing to make plays in traffic and has been the superior fantasy bet all year. If you're itching to play a Colts receiver beyond Wayne against the Texans, Hilton should be your pick. Hilton also plays in the slot more than Avery, where he can rack up easy catches against a Houston team that recently lost slot CB Brice McCain to a broken foot. Replacement Brandon Harris has struggled mightily. ... Delone Carter's high ankle sprain improves Ballard's outlook by increasing the feature back's scoring potential. Short-yardage specialist Carter has vultured three goal-line TDs over the past seven weeks. Ballard remains more of a flex than RB2 against a Texans defense that ranks second in the league versus the run and is especially stout versus inside runners like Ballard.
Friday Update: Concerning for Ballard's Week 15 outlook is the absences of RT Winston Justice (bicep) and C Samson Satele (knee). Key run blockers for Indianapolis, Justice and Satele were both ruled out on Friday.
No. 1 receiver stats against the Colts over the past six weeks: Brian Hartline 8-107, Cecil Shorts 6-105-1, Wes Welker 7-80, Stevie Johnson 6-106, Calvin Johnson 13-171-1, Kenny Britt 8-143. It's a promising trend for Andre Johnson. ... Indianapolis has also been gashed by tight ends for a month now. The Colts have allowed 21 receptions for 306 yards and five touchdowns to TEs over their last four games. Owen Daniels has a rosy Week 15 outlook. ... Matt Schaub's updated target distribution since Houston's Week 8 bye: Johnson 70, Daniels 38, Kevin Walter 28, Arian Foster 25, Garrett Graham 21, James Casey 17, Lestar Jean 7. ... Keep in mind Daniels missed a game since the bye. Walter, Graham, Casey, and Jean are rotational role players lacking fantasy value.
Foster has managed just 415 yards on his last 123 carries (3.37 YPC), which is a concern for his keeper and dynasty league owners. Fortunately, Foster's 2012 fantasy value has been buoyed by a league-leading 16 touchdowns. With Foster facing Indianapolis' 19th-ranked run defense, only Adrian Peterson is a superior Week 15 running back play. ... Ben Tate isn't a viable flex option in the fantasy semifinals, but he's retaken Houston's No. 2 back job from Justin Forsett. Tate ripped off 46 explosive yards on eight rushing attempts in last Monday night's loss to the Patriots. Forsett rushed three times for seven yards. Foster owners should handcuff him with Tate for the final two fantasy weeks. ... Despite a plus matchup with the Colts' No. 20 pass defense, Schaub is a two-quarterback league starter only. Particularly with Tate back healthy, the run-minded Texans will look to attack the Colts on the ground as struggling Schaub resumes his game-manager role.
Score Prediction: Texans 27, Colts 24
Green Bay @ Chicago
Combine the return of difference-making pass rusher Clay Matthews (hamstring) with Jay Cutler's shaky health and historical ineffectiveness against the Packers, and it's hard to imagine Chicago having much Week 15 passing success. In his Bears career, Cutler has faced Green Bay seven times. He's completed 115-of-216 throws (53.2 percent) for 1,383 yards (6.40 YPA), and a 7:16 TD-to-INT ratio. Chicago's record is 1-6. A healthy Matthews also changes the complexion of the Packers' defense. "In Week 2, Matthews was a dominant, dominant player," NFL Films' Greg Cosell recalled this week. "... He doesn't have to play 70 snaps. Even if he can get 35 snaps in given situations, he is really difficult for Chicago to block." Packers CB Tramon Williams held Brandon Marshall to 24 yards on two catches in the Week 2 matchup. Marshall is likely to have a better game this time around, but Cutler is a high-risk, low-end QB2 trying to play through a stiff neck and sprained MCL. ... Alshon Jeffery returned from in-season knee surgery in Week 14 to record three catches for 57 yards and a touchdown, playing 59-of-80 snaps (73.8 percent). A healthy Jeffery gives Cutler a legitimate No. 2 receiver with playmaking ability, but the rookie receiver isn't a reliable fantasy playoff option in a game where the entirety of Chicago's passing attack may struggle.
Cutler's target distribution in Jeffery's three starts this year: Marshall 47, Jeffery 17, Kellen Davis 15, Devin Hester 14, Matt Forte 11, Michael Bush and Kyle Adams 5, Earl Bennett 4. ... Bennett (concussion) has been ruled out for Week 15. With Jeffery back, Davis, Hester, and Adams are complementary role players bereft of fantasy value. Performing with hilarious inefficiency, Davis has eight drops and only 17 receptions on the season. ... Forte has been a 2012 fantasy disappointment, ranking 17th in running back scoring. Forte has 215 total yards and a touchdown in his last two games, however, and is fully recovered from the recurring ankle injury that's plagued him all year. Green Bay ranks a middling 15th in run defense and generously permits 4.51 yards per carry, which is the ninth highest clip in football. With goal-line vulture Bush continuing to nurse an aching rib injury that limited him to two offensive snaps in Week 14, Forte should be confidently played as a mid-range RB2 at chilly Soldier Field.
The Bears stifled Aaron Rodgers to the tune of 219 passing yards, a touchdown, and a pick in the aforementioned Week 2 meeting. The sledding should be easier in the rematch. Bears RCB Tim Jennings (shoulder) and MLB Brian Urlacher (hamstring) won't play. Wave rusher/joker end Shea McClellin (MCL sprain) and top DT Henry Melton (chest) are both listed as doubtful and will almost certainly be inactive. Perhaps Rodgers should be downgraded to mid-range QB1 with Green Bay's pass game struggling for the past month, but his every-week blowup potential is hard to justify as a Week 15 "sit" at home versus a banged-up Bears defense. I love Colin Kaepernick and Josh Freeman's matchups this week, but couldn't bring myself to start either of them over perhaps the NFL’s most talented quarterback. ... Rodgers' target distribution since Green Bay's Week 10 bye: Randall Cobb 32, Jermichael Finley 18, Greg Jennings 12, James Jones 11, Jordy Nelson 10, John Kuhn and Alex Green 8, Donald Driver 1. ... As usual, Cobb was the best Packers receiver on the field in last week's win over the Lions, racking up seven catches for 102 yards and consistently making highlight-reel grabs. He'll give Chicago matchup fits in the slot, where Jennings' injury forced the Bears to reinsert gambler D.J. Moore after a midseason benching. Cobb is an every-week WR1.
Failing to capitalize on Nelson's injuries, Jones has 40 yards or fewer in three straight games and continues to be a weekly dice roll, offering plenty of upside but a scary-low floor. Jones' stat lines in his last six meetings with Chicago: 1-10, 2- -1, 4-50-2, 4-24, 1-8, 5-55. ... Fantasy tease Finley topped 50 yards in three consecutive games entering Week 14, only to be held to two catches for 16 yards on three targets by Detroit. The Packers are running the ball more, which not only cuts down on Finley's passing-game chances, it butcher-knifes his snaps. The coaching staff does not trust Finley as a blocker. He was a 50-percent player last week. ... Although Jennings' production (1-27) underwhelmed against the Lions, he played 47-of-54 snaps (87.0 percent) and will be the second best statistical bet in Green Bay's passing game moving forward. I mentioned Jones' last six stat lines in Bears games before. Here are Jennings': 9-119, 8-130, 4-97, 2-18-1, 3-56, 6-106-1. ... Although Chicago has defended the run poorly since midseason, Green Bay's lack of backfield clarity limits presumptive lead runner Alex Green to risky, low-end flex status. Green touched the ball 14 times last week, gaining 68 scoreless yards. Practice squad-type DuJuan Harris had seven rushes for 31 yards and a TD. Kuhn remains the top option for goal-line carries. Ryan Grant gained 13 yards on his lone run against the Lions, and his role may increase at Soldier Field. Ideally, this is a situation to avoid.
Score Prediction: Packers 24, Bears 14
1:00PM ET Games
Denver @ Baltimore
It's no secret that the game had passed Cam Cameron by. Running an archaic brand of offense in Baltimore the last five seasons, Cameron only recently began using three-receiver sets beyond obvious passing downs. His game-day playcalling was almost fickle in nature, and Cameron never actively schemed to get players into space. Cameron was fired on Monday. "The receivers were not getting open," ESPN's Ron Jaworski explained this week. "When you look at the tape, when you watch Joe Flacco hold onto the football, it's because the receivers cannot beat press-man coverage. You need to be creative when you have only vertical receivers that give the quarterback very little separation. When I say creative, you've gotta use clusters, bunches, motion to help the receivers get open. I love Cam Cameron, but I think this is a move that will light a fire under the Ravens' offense." We'll see. Facing Denver's top-four defense in Week 15, new Ravens playcaller Jim Caldwell figures to get off to a slow start. ... The Broncos rank seventh against the pass, suffocating opposing aerial attacks with DPOY candidate Von Miller's relentless outside-edge rush and Champ Bailey's shutdown coverage in the back. Bailey is capable of essentially eliminating Torrey Smith from the Ravens' offense, leaving Flacco with no explosive downfield weapons in a theoretically vertical offense. This is a very tough matchup for Flacco and Smith.
Flacco's target distribution since Baltimore's Week 8 bye: Anquan Boldin 47, Smith 46, Ray Rice 27, Dennis Pitta 27, Jacoby Jones 20, Tandon Doss 8, and Ed Dickson 7. ... Boldin has been the Ravens' most reliable receiver for the past month and has a superior matchup to Smith. Boldin (6'1/225) projects to square off with 5-foot-10, 190-pound Broncos slot CB Chris Harris on the majority of pass plays. Harris is a nice inside-the-numbers cover man, but Boldin's physicality will be hard for him to handle. Boldin is a viable WR3. ... With Bailey likely to shut down one side of the field, Pitta is set up for increased opportunities in Week 15. The Broncos allow the third most fantasy points to tight ends, putting Pitta back on the low-end TE1 radar. ... Rice is on a tear with 291 yards on his last 50 carries (5.82 YPC), so the fact that Denver plays top-six run defense matters little in terms of his fantasy start-ability. Rice is the No. 4 overall fantasy running back, behind only Adrian Peterson (1), Arian Foster (2), and Doug Martin (3).
Knowshon Moreno has a lot of factors working in his favor. He's a workhorse in a high-octane offense. He plays in the passing game and will stay on the field in the unlikely event Denver falls behind. Masterful in the pre-snap phase, Peyton Manning consistently checks into favorable run plays -- or out of unfavorable ones -- based on his read of the defense. Sunday's matchup is attractive versus a Baltimore defense that gets MLB Ray Lewis back, but was average before losing him and ranks 25th against the run. Similar to Joseph Addai in Manning's old Colts offenses, Moreno is short on talent but rich on situation and volume. Addai was a top-11 fantasy back in three of his four prime years. Moreno isn't playing Oakland anymore -- so don't expect a final stat line like last week's -- but he's an appealing if relatively low-upside Week 15 flex. ... NFL Films guru Greg Cosell expects the Broncos to attack Baltimore with a quick-strike pass game down the seam. "I think that Manning with that short passing game, with the two-tight end pass game, is really gonna go after those linebackers," Cosell forecasted on Adam Caplan's Week 14 Preview Podcast. "Because (Ravens ILB) Josh Bynes ... is not very quick or fast as a pass defender. I think you'll see Manning go after those inside linebackers, work between the numbers."
Jacob Tamme's usage has picked up over the last month due to Brandon Stokley's injury-related ineffectiveness. Manning's target distribution during that span: Demaryius Thomas 34, Tamme 29, Eric Decker 24, Joel Dreessen 16, Moreno 14, Stokley 12. ... Cosell's suggestion that Denver's tight ends may be more involved is interesting, but Thomas remains the best bet for Week 15 production in the Broncos' pass-catching corps. He'll take on oft-burned Ravens RCB Cary Williams for most of Denver’s offensive snaps, and have little or no trouble winning on the outside. ... Decker also has a plus matchup versus LCB Chykie Brown, who's a special-teams gunner on a team with a healthy secondary. Decker is a strong WR3 play coming off an eight-catch, 88-yard game on a team-most nine targets in last Thursday night's victory. ... Connect the dots, and Baltimore's defense is very vulnerable all throughout the back seven. Aside from perhaps FS Ed Reed, who isn't having his best season, there is really no strength in the unit, and Manning can be reliably counted on to expose its weaknesses. The Ravens rank 23rd against the pass, but their personnel arguably suggests they're even worse than that. There are only two quarterbacks in Week 15 that I'd play confidently ahead of Peyton: Drew Brees and Cam Newton.
Score Prediction: Broncos 27, Ravens 20
Minnesota @ St. Louis
Hitting a late-year wall in his age-29 season, active NFL career carries leader Steven Jackson has been held to 112 yards on his last 41 rushing attempts (2.73 YPC). He'll square off Sunday with a Vikings defense that ranks 14th against the run and holds opponents under 4.0 yards per carry. S-Jax has received at least 20 touches in four of his last five games, and the workhorse role keeps him in the low-end RB2/flex discussion, but the recent slowdown and daunting matchup would appear to leave Jackson with limited Week 15 upside. ... Brandon Gibson has spent four seasons in the NFL, making 36 starts. His first 100-yard game occurred in start No. 36, during last week's 15-12 win over Buffalo. Gibson deserves credit for capitalizing on a favorable matchup with Bills fourth-round pick CB Ron Brooks and beating impressive rookie Stephon Gilmore for a couple of big catches, but St. Louis' separation-challenged third receiver isn't suddenly a fantasy option. Gibson had all of nine yards in his previous three games entering Week 14. Chalk it up as a fluke.
20th in fantasy quarterback scoring with one 300-yard game over his last 11, Sam Bradford is a low-end two-QB league option versus the Vikings' No. 18 pass defense. While the matchup isn't imposing, Bradford has simply lacked the production to warrant serious fantasy consideration. "There's just a lack of consistency in his game, which of course translates to erratic performances," NFL Films guru Greg Cosell said of Bradford this week. "... I think that's what the Rams are looking for, is when will he become someone you can count on week to week for a certain level of performance. ... There's just too many throws that he misses, or that he shouldn't make." ... Danny Amendola (heel) has played all of seven snaps since mid-November and needs to show he's capable of lasting four quarters before reentering fantasy-start discussions. If active, he'll match up with Vikings top CB Antoine Winfield for most of Sunday's game, making Amendola a poor fantasy roll of the dice regardless of availability. ... Beyond S-Jax, Chris Givens will be St. Louis' only viable Week 15 fantasy option. And he's coming off a miserable game. The speedster was targeted ten times against the Bills, dropping two and securing only three for 25 yards. It's a reminder that, despite his impressive tools, Givens is an inconsistent, raw rookie. It doesn't help that Minnesota's Cover 2-style defense is designed precisely to bottle up deep threats like Givens.
Friday Update: Amendola returned to a full practice Friday and is listed as probable for Week 15. Per NFL policy, the probable designation means a player is considered by his team "virtually certain" to be available for normal game-day duties. Because Amendola has endured setbacks with the heel and barely played over the past month, however, I think he's a high-risk WR3 option in the fantasy playoffs. Amendola's return also makes Gibson and Givens less attractive fantasy plays.
Okay, forget 2,000 yards. Adrian Peterson needs to average 168.3 in Weeks 15-17 to topple Eric Dickerson's single-season record of 2,105. "I think so," said Peterson this week, when asked if Dickerson should be nervous. "I do. ... I feel it's possible." St. Louis ranks 13th in run defense, but matchups don't matter for the greatest running back -- easily -- of our generation. ... Unfortunately, there are no other Vikings skill-position players worth investment during fantasy semifinals week, due in large part to Christian Ponder's ongoing regression. Targets leader Kyle Rudolph has produced a goose egg in three of his last seven games. Percy Harvin fill-in Jarius Wright is a part-time player coming off back-to-back sub-30-yard games and set to square off with feisty Rams CB Cortland Finnegan in the slot. Jerome Simpson is a slouch. Molasses Michael Jenkins can't run a lick.
Score Prediction: Rams 20, Vikings 17
Jacksonville @ Miami
Jaguars-Dolphins has the second lowest over-under of Week 15 with a total scoring projection of 37.5. (Redskins-Browns is lowest at 37 points.) Both Jacksonville and Miami have bottom-four offenses and are incapable of forcing their opponent to increase its aggressiveness by racking up points. Use the low-scoring forecast to break ties in fantasy lineup decisions, avoiding this game where possible. ... Chad Henne has returned to Earth after a 2 1/2-game hot run that ended two weeks back. Henne has completed just 41 of his last 87 passes (47.1 percent) for 387 yards (4.45 YPA), a touchdown, and three picks. Henne is no longer playing remotely well enough for standard league fantasy use and he's crashed to the basement of QB2s. ... Teams have assigned their top corners to shadow Justin Blackmon the past two weeks, and he's been unable to get open versus Stephon Gilmore and Antonio Cromartie. In Week 15, Blackmon can expect to draw Dolphins No. 1 CB Sean Smith. Although Smith's coverage has been up and down this year, he matches up well with Blackmon at a physical 6-foot-3, 214 with freakishly long arms. Avoid Blackmon in WR3 decisions this week.
Cecil Shorts is more likely to deal with Dolphins No. 2 CB Nolan Carroll out wide. His matchup is superior to Blackmon's, and Shorts is a better receiver, too. He's a better natural athlete, gets off the line with more quickness, and runs crisper routes. Shorts will be a recommended WR2/3 against Miami's 25th-ranked pass defense. ... Henne's insertion in place of Blaine Gabbert initially sparked Marcedes Lewis, but the Jaguars' tight end is back in the midst of a three-game scoreless stretch and the Dolphins have allowed the 12th fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Lewis is only a TE2. ... Montell Owens paid fantasy dividends for owners desperate enough to start him in last week's loss, ripping off a 32-yard touchdown run and averaging 6.50 yards per carry. Unfortunately, Owens will go from facing the Jets' bottom-four run defense to the Dolphins' top-nine unit. Fantasy owners should try to aim higher than Owens in flex positions. Miami fields a heavyweight, immovable front seven and Owens lacks burst to threaten the edge.
The Dolphins have been a fantasy wasteland for much of the season, lacking big-play ability in the pass game and fielding a value-sapping timeshare in the backfield. But Reggie Bush's Week 15 matchup and signs of separation from ineffective pace-change back Daniel Thomas make Bush an appealing fantasy bet versus a Jacksonville defense that ranks 31st versus the run and has allowed a league-high 18 rushing touchdowns. A week after fumbling for the third time this year, Thomas was limited to season lows in snaps (13) and carries (2) in last Sunday's loss to the 49ers. Meanwhile, Bush played his most snaps (44) since Week 6 and has racked up 228 yards on his last 45 rushing attempts (5.07 YPC). Bush offers intriguing upside as a flex play versus the Jags. Thomas can safely be dropped in fantasy leagues. ... Jacksonville is leaky in the back end, ranking 24th in pass defense and generating no pass rush in the front four. With eight touchdown passes through 13 starts, however, Ryan Tannehill remains a low-end option in two-QB leagues.
Tannehill's target distribution over the past month: Davone Bess 34, Brian Hartline 30, Bush 14, Charles Clay 13, Anthony Fasano 10, Rishard Matthews 6. ... Although Bess is targeted heavily, he has one touchdown over his last 14 games and has cleared 70 yards in 3-of-13 appearances this season. After missing the practice week with a back injury, Bess is low-upside fantasy option who doesn't offer enough scoring potential to be worth any risk. ... Hartline is slightly attractive this week in a game where Tannehill should have ample time to throw, allowing his top perimeter threat's routes to develop. Hartline has a plus matchup versus Jaguars LCB Aaron Ross on early downs and 32-year-old nickel back Rashean Mathis in obvious passing situations. ... With Clay's role increasing, Fasano has become a complete non-factor in fantasy football.
Friday Update: The Dolphins announced that Bess (back) has been ruled out for Week 15, leaving Marlon Moore as the likely starter opposite Hartline. Moore has four catches on the season. Perhaps Bess' absence will result in a target or two more for Hartline.
Score Prediction: Dolphins 20, Jaguars 14
Washington @ Cleveland
The 7-6 Redskins are one game behind the 8-5 Giants in the NFC East. Washington has a win over New York and the best record in the division -- both key for tiebreaker purposes -- and might quietly be the NFL's most dangerous cusp-playoff team right now. "I think that's a team that is starting to figure out how to win," ESPN's Eric Mangini said of the Redskins this week. "There's a real belief in their quarterback. And, sometimes, that's the most important thing." The Skins are in the thick of a playoff chase, and Robert Griffin III is expected to play Sunday regardless of his questionable tag. He should be available to fantasy owners, but needs to be downgraded on cheatsheets due to the threat of decreased mobility and fewer read-option runs. ... Washington's Week 15 response to RG3's LCL sprain still figures to be conservative, protecting Griffin as best they can and confining him to the pocket. This projects as an Alfred Morris-heavy game. With 698 yards on his last 138 carries (5.06 YPC), Morris is certainly performing in a manner that suggests he can shoulder an offensive load. Oakland and Kansas City halfbacks tagged Cleveland for 258 yards on 40 rushing attempts (6.45 YPC) in Weeks 13-14, so Morris' matchup is unimposing. Proceed with caution on RG3 as a mid-range to low-level QB1, but Morris should be locked into lineups as a candidate for 25-30 carries.
Friday Update: FOX Sports' Jay Glazer reported Friday that Griffin "truly is a game-time decision," while D.C. beat writers noted that RG3 didn't look 100 percent during Friday's pre-practice drills. Griffin will try to play at Cleveland, but the confidence in him doing so doesn't seem as strong late in the week as it was on Wednesday and Thursday. Coach Mike Shanahan indicated that he expects to know whether Griffin will play, for sure, by Saturday. Per Glazer, rookie Kirk Cousins took all of the first-team reps throughout the practice week and has 50:50 odds to get the nod.
Griffin's target distribution since Pierre Garcon returned from a foot injury following the Redskins' Week 10 bye: Garcon 29, Josh Morgan 18, Santana Moss and Leonard Hankerson 10, Logan Paulsen 8, Niles Paul 3, and Aldrick Robinson 2. ... Even if the use of pistol-option plays are dumbed down or scrapped as Griffin is nursed back in, the Redskins still figure to take their shots downfield, complementing the run-first design. Griffin's injury and Browns top CB Joe Haden's likely shadow coverage drop Garcon from WR2 to WR3 status in Week 15, but the Skins will continue to look to hit him on bombs and across the middle, where Garcon does some of his best work. ... The remainder of Washington pass catchers lack fantasy value. Griffin is only averaging 27 pass attempts per game, and the low-volume passing attack has proven incapable of supporting more than one consistently fantasy-relevant receiver.
Friday Update: If Cousins indeed gets the start, Garcon's fantasy outlook will become quite shaky. He'd have to get free from Haden's coverage with a lesser thrower of the football under center, in an undoubtedly less explosive offense. Garcon is a high-end WR3/flex if Griffin starts. If it's Cousins, downgrade Garcon to low-end WR3 option.
Hitting a late-season stride, Cleveland's offense has impressed Greg Cosell of NFL Films on tape. "They're 5-3 in their last eight," Cosell noted this week. "Their offense has become extremely stable and consistent. They run the ball every week. Trent Richardson gets his 20-plus carries. Brandon Weeden gets his throws. They get the ball downfield because Weeden has a good arm. It's become a very stable, consistent offense that for the most part does the same thing every week." The Browns have an appealing Week 15 matchup versus a Washington defense that struggles to rush the passer and cover, setting up Josh Gordon as a high-ceiling fantasy start. Gordon has clearly separated himself as Cleveland's go-to receiver, and is a good bet for a long pass play when one of Redskins DC Jim Haslett's blitzes doesn't get home, leaving the back end vulnerable. ... Weeden's target distribution since Cleveland's Week 10 bye: Gordon 33, Ben Watson 25, Greg Little 20, Richardson 19, Jordan Cameron 11, Mohamed Massaquoi 9. ... Watson is worth a look for tight end-desperate owners. The targets have been there for Watson in recent games, and Washington has allowed the most fantasy points in the league to tight ends.
Little's on-field performance has picked up since a brutal, drop-filled beginning to the season. Pro Football Focus hasn't charted Little with a dropped pass since Week 5, and he's been noticeably physical and productive running after the catch the past two games. Little isn't a standalone Week 15 fantasy option beyond deeper leagues, but his improvement boosts the outlook of Weeden as a mid-range to arguably high-end two-quarterback league play in an already favorable matchup. ... Pace-change back Montario Hardesty essentially came out of nowhere to lead Cleveland in Week 14 rushing, ripping off 52 yards on 10 carries against the Chiefs. The yardage total was the fourth highest of Hardesty's 19-game career. Hardesty deserves a figurative butt-pat for playing well off the bench behind Richardson last week, but isn't in the Week 15 start discussion against the Skins.
Score Prediction: Redskins 23, Browns 20
Tampa Bay @ New Orleans
For a Saints offense struggling to find any rhythm the past two weeks, a Superdomed date with Tampa's No. 32 pass defense will serve as a slump buster. Drew Brees shredded the Bucs for 377 yards and four TDs on 27-of-37 passing in these clubs' October meeting, and that was before the Bucs traded top CB Aqib Talib and lost fellow starter Eric Wright to suspension. Brees owners need to have short memories, shrug off Weeks 13-14, and start him as a top-two quarterback play. ... What's wrong with Jimmy Graham? What's wrong with Marques Colston? The issue isn't those particular players. It's been New Orleans' pass offense as a whole. Brees has a 1:7 TD-to-INT ratio over his last two games, road losses to the Giants and Falcons. Graham and Colston will be fine when the overall pass-game production picks up, and there's every reason to believe it will in the most favorable matchup the Saints get all year. "I would expect Brees and this pass game to very, very effective against this defense," NFL Films' Greg Cosell said this week. "They'll dictate matchups. I think the matchups favor them. ... I would expect Brees to have a very big game this week." Short memories. Start Graham as the best tight end in fantasy. Colston racked up seven catches for 73 yards and a score in the Week 7 game, and he's every bit worth a WR2 start versus Tampa. ... Brees' target distribution during his two-game slump: Graham and Darren Sproles 16, Colston and Lance Moore 15, Pierre Thomas 9, Devery Henderson 7, Joe Morgan 4.
Streak-route specialist Morgan secured his two Week 14 targets for 106 yards and is averaging a redonkulous 44.3 yards per reception on the year. Lightly targeted and yet to catch more than two balls in any game this season, Morgan is too unreliable for fantasy semifinals week. ... Moore burned the Bucs for 121 yards on nine catches in Week 7, and the attractiveness of his Week 15 matchup is obvious. When the Saints' offense is humming, it is capable of supporting big fantasy games from Graham, Colston, and Moore. It should hum against Tampa. Moore is a respectable WR3. ... I discussed the style of attack with which the Bucs dominate opposing ground games in Thursday's Bengals-Eagles Matchups primer. Tampa has the best run defense in the league, and it isn't close. Due to the brutal matchup, fantasy owners would be smart to write off Mark Ingram and Pierre Thomas as Week 15 fantasy considerations. Chris Ivory is out with a hamstring injury. ... Because Sproles is not utilized as a traditional halfback -- he's almost strictly a "satellite" player who does his damage in space -- Sproles is the one Saints running back who should be inserted into PPR fantasy lineups as a Week 15 flex starter. Sproles has only 31 rushing attempts on the season, however, and is less appealing in standard settings. He's rushed for a touchdown just once in his last 11 games.
So much for the Rookie Wall. Doug Martin got off the schneid in Week 14 following a two-game yards-per-carry lull, rushing 28 times for 128 yards and a touchdown in Tampa Bay's loss to the Eagles. The every-down back chipped in three receptions. With Josh Freeman struggling mightily in the passing game, Martin was the Bucs' most effective offensive player. Martin touched up New Orleans' 32nd-ranked run defense for 122 yards and an end-zone trip in the Week 7 meeting, and that was before his breakout stretch. Consider Muscle Hamster a top-eight RB1 in this mouth-watering matchup. ... The Bucs' offense as a whole is very run-game reliant. Play-action vertical strikes to Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams depend on an effective rushing attack to keep a defensive safety close to the line of scrimmage. This explains why Freeman's box-score stats have sagged when Martin has been stifled this year. When all the elements are clicking, though, Tampa can field a top-ten NFL offense in the run-to-pass design. I think Martin is a good bet for Week 15 rushing success, thus opening up the passing game for downfield strikes. Freeman is a top-ten QB1 against New Orleans' No. 30 pass defense. ... Freeman's target distribution over the past three games: Jackson 25, Williams 24, Tiquan Underwood 19, Dallas Clark 14, Martin 11.
V-Jax obliterated the Saints for 216 yards and a touchdown on seven catches in Week 7. The No. 4 overall fantasy receiver, Jackson is an elite fantasy playoffs start. ... On pace for just 906 yards and 57 receptions, Williams' weekly production has been highly touchdown dependent. When he hasn't scored this season, Williams has averaged three catches for 51 yards per game. Start Williams if you think he'll discover pay dirt this week. I'd call him a slightly better than 50:50 bet. ... Continuing to hover around 50 percent of the offensive snaps, Clark is an underwhelming fantasy option on a weekly basis, needing to catch breaks like pass-happy comeback mode in order to prove a worthwhile play. The Saints have allowed the eighth most fantasy points to tight ends, but that statistic is less meaningful for TEs who are complementary role players like Clark.
Score Prediction: Saints 31, Bucs 27
Indianapolis @ Houston
Andrew Luck has an 18:18 TD-to-INT ratio as a passer this season. He has lost five fumbles and completed a Sanchezian 49.7 percent of this throws in his last four games. But a 9-4 record fuels his hype train, and Luck has been a steady if low-end fantasy QB1 due to sheer volume. Matthew Stafford is the only NFL quarterback with more pass attempts, and Luck leads the league in 20-plus-yard completions, benefiting from comeback mode and Bruce Arians' vertical passing attack. This game will be played beneath Reliant Stadium's retractable roof, and the Texans' sputtering pass defense keeps Luck in the top-dozen QB conversation. Houston has allowed 1,400 combined yards on 174 attempts (8.05 YPA), 11 touchdowns, and three interceptions to Stafford, Chad Henne, Tom Brady, and Jake Locker in its last four games. ... Luck's target distribution over the last month: Reggie Wayne 51, Donnie Avery 35, T.Y. Hilton 29, Dwayne Allen 25, LaVon Brazill 10, Vick Ballard 7, Coby Fleener 6. ... Allen was a fun midseason pluck-and-play matchup-based tight end, but he's off the re-draft league radar with Fleener back. Allen's target total has sunk in three straight games. Allen and Fleener are canceling each other out in fantasy football.
The Texans have only intermittently employed Johnathan Joseph in shadow coverage of No. 1 wide receivers this year, and Wayne moves around the formation too often for defenses to easily track. In previous dates with shadow corners Sean Smith and Antonio Cromartie, Wayne racked up stat lines of 7-78-1 and 5-87. Start Wayne with confidence. ... Although Avery is an every-down player in a high-volume passing offense, he's inevitably prone to inconsistency as a lightweight speed receiver who plays without physicality. Avery has been held under 40 yards in three of his last four games. He won't be a recommended WR3 start in Week 15 or 16. ... Hilton's on-field role is less reliable than Avery's, but the rookie is willing to make plays in traffic and has been the superior fantasy bet all year. If you're itching to play a Colts receiver beyond Wayne against the Texans, Hilton should be your pick. Hilton also plays in the slot more than Avery, where he can rack up easy catches against a Houston team that recently lost slot CB Brice McCain to a broken foot. Replacement Brandon Harris has struggled mightily. ... Delone Carter's high ankle sprain improves Ballard's outlook by increasing the feature back's scoring potential. Short-yardage specialist Carter has vultured three goal-line TDs over the past seven weeks. Ballard remains more of a flex than RB2 against a Texans defense that ranks second in the league versus the run and is especially stout versus inside runners like Ballard.
Friday Update: Concerning for Ballard's Week 15 outlook is the absences of RT Winston Justice (bicep) and C Samson Satele (knee). Key run blockers for Indianapolis, Justice and Satele were both ruled out on Friday.
No. 1 receiver stats against the Colts over the past six weeks: Brian Hartline 8-107, Cecil Shorts 6-105-1, Wes Welker 7-80, Stevie Johnson 6-106, Calvin Johnson 13-171-1, Kenny Britt 8-143. It's a promising trend for Andre Johnson. ... Indianapolis has also been gashed by tight ends for a month now. The Colts have allowed 21 receptions for 306 yards and five touchdowns to TEs over their last four games. Owen Daniels has a rosy Week 15 outlook. ... Matt Schaub's updated target distribution since Houston's Week 8 bye: Johnson 70, Daniels 38, Kevin Walter 28, Arian Foster 25, Garrett Graham 21, James Casey 17, Lestar Jean 7. ... Keep in mind Daniels missed a game since the bye. Walter, Graham, Casey, and Jean are rotational role players lacking fantasy value.
Foster has managed just 415 yards on his last 123 carries (3.37 YPC), which is a concern for his keeper and dynasty league owners. Fortunately, Foster's 2012 fantasy value has been buoyed by a league-leading 16 touchdowns. With Foster facing Indianapolis' 19th-ranked run defense, only Adrian Peterson is a superior Week 15 running back play. ... Ben Tate isn't a viable flex option in the fantasy semifinals, but he's retaken Houston's No. 2 back job from Justin Forsett. Tate ripped off 46 explosive yards on eight rushing attempts in last Monday night's loss to the Patriots. Forsett rushed three times for seven yards. Foster owners should handcuff him with Tate for the final two fantasy weeks. ... Despite a plus matchup with the Colts' No. 20 pass defense, Schaub is a two-quarterback league starter only. Particularly with Tate back healthy, the run-minded Texans will look to attack the Colts on the ground as struggling Schaub resumes his game-manager role.
Score Prediction: Texans 27, Colts 24
Green Bay @ Chicago
Combine the return of difference-making pass rusher Clay Matthews (hamstring) with Jay Cutler's shaky health and historical ineffectiveness against the Packers, and it's hard to imagine Chicago having much Week 15 passing success. In his Bears career, Cutler has faced Green Bay seven times. He's completed 115-of-216 throws (53.2 percent) for 1,383 yards (6.40 YPA), and a 7:16 TD-to-INT ratio. Chicago's record is 1-6. A healthy Matthews also changes the complexion of the Packers' defense. "In Week 2, Matthews was a dominant, dominant player," NFL Films' Greg Cosell recalled this week. "... He doesn't have to play 70 snaps. Even if he can get 35 snaps in given situations, he is really difficult for Chicago to block." Packers CB Tramon Williams held Brandon Marshall to 24 yards on two catches in the Week 2 matchup. Marshall is likely to have a better game this time around, but Cutler is a high-risk, low-end QB2 trying to play through a stiff neck and sprained MCL. ... Alshon Jeffery returned from in-season knee surgery in Week 14 to record three catches for 57 yards and a touchdown, playing 59-of-80 snaps (73.8 percent). A healthy Jeffery gives Cutler a legitimate No. 2 receiver with playmaking ability, but the rookie receiver isn't a reliable fantasy playoff option in a game where the entirety of Chicago's passing attack may struggle.
Cutler's target distribution in Jeffery's three starts this year: Marshall 47, Jeffery 17, Kellen Davis 15, Devin Hester 14, Matt Forte 11, Michael Bush and Kyle Adams 5, Earl Bennett 4. ... Bennett (concussion) has been ruled out for Week 15. With Jeffery back, Davis, Hester, and Adams are complementary role players bereft of fantasy value. Performing with hilarious inefficiency, Davis has eight drops and only 17 receptions on the season. ... Forte has been a 2012 fantasy disappointment, ranking 17th in running back scoring. Forte has 215 total yards and a touchdown in his last two games, however, and is fully recovered from the recurring ankle injury that's plagued him all year. Green Bay ranks a middling 15th in run defense and generously permits 4.51 yards per carry, which is the ninth highest clip in football. With goal-line vulture Bush continuing to nurse an aching rib injury that limited him to two offensive snaps in Week 14, Forte should be confidently played as a mid-range RB2 at chilly Soldier Field.
The Bears stifled Aaron Rodgers to the tune of 219 passing yards, a touchdown, and a pick in the aforementioned Week 2 meeting. The sledding should be easier in the rematch. Bears RCB Tim Jennings (shoulder) and MLB Brian Urlacher (hamstring) won't play. Wave rusher/joker end Shea McClellin (MCL sprain) and top DT Henry Melton (chest) are both listed as doubtful and will almost certainly be inactive. Perhaps Rodgers should be downgraded to mid-range QB1 with Green Bay's pass game struggling for the past month, but his every-week blowup potential is hard to justify as a Week 15 "sit" at home versus a banged-up Bears defense. I love Colin Kaepernick and Josh Freeman's matchups this week, but couldn't bring myself to start either of them over perhaps the NFL’s most talented quarterback. ... Rodgers' target distribution since Green Bay's Week 10 bye: Randall Cobb 32, Jermichael Finley 18, Greg Jennings 12, James Jones 11, Jordy Nelson 10, John Kuhn and Alex Green 8, Donald Driver 1. ... As usual, Cobb was the best Packers receiver on the field in last week's win over the Lions, racking up seven catches for 102 yards and consistently making highlight-reel grabs. He'll give Chicago matchup fits in the slot, where Jennings' injury forced the Bears to reinsert gambler D.J. Moore after a midseason benching. Cobb is an every-week WR1.
Failing to capitalize on Nelson's injuries, Jones has 40 yards or fewer in three straight games and continues to be a weekly dice roll, offering plenty of upside but a scary-low floor. Jones' stat lines in his last six meetings with Chicago: 1-10, 2- -1, 4-50-2, 4-24, 1-8, 5-55. ... Fantasy tease Finley topped 50 yards in three consecutive games entering Week 14, only to be held to two catches for 16 yards on three targets by Detroit. The Packers are running the ball more, which not only cuts down on Finley's passing-game chances, it butcher-knifes his snaps. The coaching staff does not trust Finley as a blocker. He was a 50-percent player last week. ... Although Jennings' production (1-27) underwhelmed against the Lions, he played 47-of-54 snaps (87.0 percent) and will be the second best statistical bet in Green Bay's passing game moving forward. I mentioned Jones' last six stat lines in Bears games before. Here are Jennings': 9-119, 8-130, 4-97, 2-18-1, 3-56, 6-106-1. ... Although Chicago has defended the run poorly since midseason, Green Bay's lack of backfield clarity limits presumptive lead runner Alex Green to risky, low-end flex status. Green touched the ball 14 times last week, gaining 68 scoreless yards. Practice squad-type DuJuan Harris had seven rushes for 31 yards and a TD. Kuhn remains the top option for goal-line carries. Ryan Grant gained 13 yards on his lone run against the Lions, and his role may increase at Soldier Field. Ideally, this is a situation to avoid.
Score Prediction: Packers 24, Bears 14
NY Giants @ Atlanta
Eli Manning is back, alright. What tired arm? "He was predatory," ESPN's Steve Young observed of Manning's four-touchdown Week 14 throttling of the Saints. "You talk about a guy that smelled blood and then just went after it. And made throw after throw after throw. This is the guy that wins Super Bowls." Heating up since New York's Week 11 bye, Eli has completed 58-of-98 passes for 788 yards (8.04 YPA), and an 8:2 TD-to-INT ratio over his last three games. He's reentered QB1 discussion in potential shootout indoors versus a Falcons defense that ranks 16th versus the pass and got touched up for 287 yards and two touchdowns by Cam Newton last week. ... Manning's target distribution since the bye: Hakeem Nicks 29, Victor Cruz 23, Martellus Bennett 18, Ahmad Bradshaw 6, Domenik Hixon and Rueben Randle 4. ... Knee and foot injuries have cost Nicks explosiveness in his routes, but the Giants are force feeding him the football and Nicks is the No. 16 fantasy receiver over the past three weeks. In last January's Wild Card floor-wiping of Atlanta, Nicks burned the Falcons for 115 yards and two touchdowns on six receptions. Nicks isn't quite the same player he was then, but he's still capable of exploiting a favorable matchup. And he'll get one Sunday against RCB Dunta Robinson, fresh off a Week 14 toasting by Steve Smith (7-109).
Falcons top corner Asante Samuel (shoulder) figures to return this week after what's amounted to a two-game absence, but he never moves off his left cornerback island and may go to waste covering Hixon in the Giants' three-wide sets. Hixon and Randle are no longer roster worthy in re-draft leagues. ... Despite fewer targets, Cruz is outscoring Nicks since the bye with either a touchdown and/or 100-plus yards in three straight games. Fire up Cruz as a borderline WR1. ... Bennett has found pay dirt in consecutive weeks. The Falcons allow the 11th most fantasy points and eighth most yards to tight ends, so the self-dubbed Black Unicorn has an attractive Week 15 matchup. ... Atlanta is the most flawed 11-2 team in recent NFL memory, and perhaps their primary flaw is that the Falcons are not a physical ballclub. And opponents can run all day long on their No. 23 run defense, which allows the second highest yards-per-carry average (4.88) in football. If Bradshaw does not play -- and all signs point to his deactivation -- David Wilson belongs in all lineups as the potential hero of fantasy semifinals week. "Boy, does he have a lot of juice," NFL Films' Greg Cosell observed this week of the Giants' first-round pick. "... He runs very, very hard inside, too. He runs with a lot of velocity." Both laterally and vertically explosive, homerun-hitter Wilson has averaged 5.15 YPC on 41 rushing attempts as a rookie.
Friday Update: Bradshaw has indeed been ruled out for Week 15 and won't even travel to Atlanta, locking Wilson into the feature back role. Coach Tom Coughlin indicated to the New York Daily News that Wilson is prepared for a heavy workload. "This guy has very, very good leg strength and he has got one ingredient that you look for in everybody, and that's stamina," Coughlin said. "He has outstanding stamina. It appears that he can go all day long."
The Giants' pass rush is hitting its late-season stride, which is an unwelcomed development for the rest of the league. Since the open date, New York's defense has faced a Murderers' Row of quarterbacks. They've held Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Robert Griffin III to a combined 53-of-89 passing (59.5 percent) for 736 yards, only three touchdowns, and three picks. The Giants' pass-defense ranking is 27th, but this is a much more challenging matchup for Matt Ryan than that statistic suggests. Having fallen to eighth in fantasy scoring at his position, Ryan is a mid-range to low-end QB1 in Week 15. ... Ryan's target distribution since Julio Jones returned from an ankle scare three games ago: Jones 28, Roddy White 25, Tony Gonzalez 19, Jacquizz Rodgers and Jason Snelling 10, Harry Douglas 8, Michael Turner 4. ... Atlanta's overall passing production may be modest Sunday, but Jones and White remain appealing, borderline WR1 fantasy plays. While the Giants can mask back-end deficiencies when Jason Pierre-Paul & Co. are firing on all cylinders, New York's defensive weakness is cornerback play. LCB Corey Webster and rookie slot CB Jayron Hosley have struggled all year. RCB Prince Amukamara is out with a hamstring strain. Fire up Jones and White in fantasy, and hope the Falcons' offensive line gives Ryan time to throw.
Friday Update: White missed practice all week with a knee injury and is listed as questionable for Week 15. We'll know his official status early Sunday because Giants-Falcons is a 1PM ET game. White has a long history of playing on game days after little or no practice time, and being very effective on the field.
Gonzalez's Week 15 matchup also looks favorable versus a Giants defense permitting the fourth most receptions and sixth most yards to tight ends. Start him as a top-five tight end in Week 15. ... Turner has a touchdown in four straight games. The scary part is that his fantasy value is living off gimme goal-line scores, while Turner's touches and snaps have plummeted over the past month. Turner doesn't gain enough yards anymore to prop up his production when he isn't getting in from a yard out. So if he doesn't score against the Giants, he's going to hurt you. Turner should be benched in the fantasy playoffs. ... Although Rodgers has played more downs than Turner in four straight weeks, the change-of-pace back has done little to justify fantasy start-ability. Rodgers has averaged 58.3 total yards per game over the month-long stretch, hitting pay dirt once. Quizz can be counted on for 9-12 touches against the G-Men, but he'd be a bottom-feeding flex option.
Score Prediction: Giants 31, Falcons 27
4:05PM ET Games
Seattle @ Buffalo
Seahawks-Bills will be played at Rogers Centre in Toronto, likely in domed environs beneath a retractable roof. From a fantasy standpoint, Bills skill-position players are in for a very tough test. "I think they're a team that nobody really wants to play," NFL Network's Mike Lombardi said of Seattle this week, "because they're hard to move the football on effectively." Buffalo's five-wide spread offense matches up poorly with physical defenses, particularly those that play press-man coverage on the perimeter. The Seahawks play that style. So do the Jets, Rams, and 49ers, and against them Ryan Fitzpatrick has combined to complete 59-of-91 passes for 568 yards (6.24 YPA), and a 4:5 TD-to-INT ratio this season. Even in a two-quarterback league, Fitzpatrick would be a poor Week 15 fantasy option. ... Fitz's target distribution over his last four games: Stevie Johnson 37, Donald Jones and Scott Chandler 16, T.J. Graham 14, C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson 9. ... Just like Larry Fitzgerald last week, Johnson can expect to be shadowed all over the field by Seahawks CB Richard Sherman. Fitzgerald was held to one catch for two yards. Johnson belongs on benches during the fantasy semifinals, as do the rest of the Bills' wide receivers and tight ends.
Though coach Chan Gailey has declined to commit to Spiller as the foundation of his offense and run game to this point, Jackson's year-ending knee injury leaves Gailey with no choice but to lean heavily on his best skill-position player. In Jackson's last eight missed games dating back to last season, Spiller has racked up 621 yards on 108 carries (5.75 YPC) and 300 additional yards on 29 catches. He's scored eight all-purpose touchdowns and averaged 116 total yards per game. While the matchup with Seattle's top-ten run defense appears difficult on paper, Spiller possesses lateral moves, change-of-direction skills, and edge speed to pour yardage on even the stoutest of NFL defenses. Just ask the Dolphins. Start him as a low-end RB1 with top-five upside this week.
It was discouraged in this space to lean on Russell Wilson as fantasy starter in Week 14, and is again discouraged in semifinals week. He's a two-quarterback league player only. While Buffalo has surged to 14th in the league's pass defense rankings with a kick-started pass rush and quietly terrific secondary performance, Wilson continues to be utilized as a manager averaging 25.4 pass attempts per game. In addition, top receiver Sidney Rice spent half of the week in a walking boot with an allegedly bruised foot. Wilson and Rice are always borderline fantasy plays, so we're always looking for tangible, logical reasons to either sit them or start them each week. The tea leaves are negative on both players for Week 15. ... The outlook isn't especially rosy for Golden Tate, either, even if Rice were inactive. In that event, Tate would draw red-hot rookie CB Stephon Gilmore in coverage. Stats for receivers covered by Gilmore on the majority of pass plays over the past five games: Brian Hartline 4-49, Brandon Lloyd 5-45, Reggie Wayne 8-102, Justin Blackmon 1-9, Chris Givens 3-25. No touchdowns allowed. I think Tate would actually be a better fantasy option if Rice played.
Friday Update: Rice returned to a full practice on Friday, and coach Pete Carroll promised he'll play in Toronto. Fantasy owners should avoid Rice whenever he's at less than full health, however. Tate stands just a good a chance of leading Seattle in Week 15 receiving.
Wilson's target distribution since Seattle's Week 11 bye: Rice 17, Tate 14, Doug Baldwin 13, Zach Miller 12, Marshawn Lynch and Anthony McCoy 7. That's a three-game sample. The Baldwins, Millers, and McCoys of the world are role-playing pass catchers in a run-first offense. ... Not only does this game present an opportunity for Lynch to exact revenge on the Bills coaching staff and front office that treated him like a washed-up third-stringer three seasons ago, leaning on their bellcow back simply fits what the Seahawks do on offense, philosophically. Lynch is going to get the ball a ton in Week 15. He's also the No. 3 overall running back in fantasy football.
Score Prediction: Seahawks 23, Bills 13
Carolina @ San Diego
No quarterback west of Foxboro has been hotter than Cam Newton since the season's halfway point. In Newton's last six games, he's accounted for a 15:2 touchdown-to-turnover ratio, 308.2 all-purpose yardage average, and leads all players in fantasy scoring. "He went through so much criticism early on, and every player has the choice: You can get bitter or you can get better," ESPN's Trent Dilfer said on Monday Night Countdown this week. "I saw Cam Newton get better. ... He's getting better every week in training and he's such a physical force. He's daunting physically." The Chargers are no pushover opponent with a top-nine defense, but Newton has lit up the similarly highly-regarded units of Atlanta (twice) and Denver this season. Lock Newton into lineups as the elite QB1 he was expected to be. ... Newton's target distribution during his six-game, fantasy team-carrying surge: Steve Smith 49, Greg Olsen 39, Brandon LaFell 26, Louis Murphy 22, Mike Tolbert 14, Jonathan Stewart 7, DeAngelo Williams 6. ... It was noted last week in this space that speed receivers give San Diego's slow-footed cornerbacks fits. It showed up in Week 12 when Torrey Smith roasted Quentin Jammer and Antoine Cason for 144 yards on seven receptions. Last Sunday, Mike Wallace shredded the Bolts for a 7-112-2 line. Back on a tear with 100-plus yards in back-to-back games, you might want to start Steve Smith in sunny San Diego.
A promising development for Olsen's fantasy outlook has been Cam's improved accuracy in the short passing game. Due to fixable mechanical flaws, Newton's precision and touch were major early-season issues. No more. Pro Football Focus charted Newton at 17-of-18 on throws of ten yards or fewer in Week 14, so it's no surprise that Olsen came away with a solid stat line (4-55-1). While San Diego has allowed the fifth fewest fantasy points to tight ends, Olsen is worth a look as a low-end TE1. ... LaFell (toe, foot) and Murphy (hamstring) are both battling injuries this week and can be safely written off as fantasy semifinals options. ... DeAngelo Williams shed several would-be tacklers on a 53-yard screen pass for a touchdown in Week 14 versus Atlanta. On his other 18 touches, Williams managed a combined 59 yards (3.28 average). On Sunday, Williams will take on San Diego's top-four run defense, a unit that has permitted just five rushing touchdowns in 13 games and allows 3.82 yards per carry. He will be a dicey flex option offering minimal upside.
Although Pittsburgh's defense came out flat in last week's Chargers win and failed to exploit San Diego's rag-tag offensive line, Philip Rivers' pass protection remains a big weekly concern. While Carolina's defense is commonly perceived as weak, the Panthers have a talented front four that ranks in the top half of the NFL in sacks and harassed Matt Ryan in last week's upset of Atlanta. Panthers LE Charles Johnson (8.5 sacks, 6 forced fumbles) and RE Greg Hardy (9 sacks) should lick their chops for Sunday's matchup with undrafted rookie LT Mike Harris and practice squad-caliber RT Kevin Haslam. Rivers is only a fantasy option in two-quarterback leagues. ... Rivers' updated target distribution since Danario Alexander became a starter five games ago: Alexander 47, Floyd 33, Antonio Gates 27, Ryan Mathews 23, Ronnie Brown 22, Micheal Spurlock 13, Eddie Royal 8, Robert Meachem 3. ... Alexander has another highly attractive matchup in Week 15 versus a Panthers secondary that benched RCB Josh Norman last week and will start third-stringer/special teamer D.J. Campbell at strong safety due to Sherrod Martin and Haruki Nakamura's year-ending injuries. Moving from strong to free safety, Charles Godfrey will play through a back injury.
Since Alexander came aboard as a street free agent signing, Floyd has been reduced to the No. 2 option in San Diego's passing game, and is therefore very touchdown reliant. Floyd has not hit 70 yards since Week 5, although he has four end-zone trips over the last month and a half. Start Floyd if you think he'll score a touchdown versus Carolina. ... No. 17 overall fantasy TE Gates figures to benefit from all of the Panthers' injuries at safety. Gates is no longer a reliable weekly starter, but he should be played over the likes of Jacob Tamme and Kyle Rudolph in Week 15. ... Mathews' play has been so poor in recent weeks that he's very hard to trust as more than a flex against Carolina's No. 21 run defense. That said, Ronnie Brown's potential absence due to a hamstring injury would certainly improve Mathews' outlook, perhaps forcing him into the every-down role coach Norval Turner has refused to hand Mathews for whatever reason. Volume shouldn't be an issue for Mathews. His 2012 performance suggests effectiveness may still be.
Friday Update: Brown is listed as doubtful for Week 15 after missing all three Chargers practices, and beat writers are anticipating a full workload for Mathews. Mathews has been perhaps the single biggest disappointment of the 2012 fantasy regular season, but it's not inconceivable that he could really help owners in the fantasy playoffs. The talent is still in there, somewhere. I think the reasons for Mathews' struggles have been confidence, usage, and Chargers offense-related. Mathews is a strong flex option versus Carolina.
Score Prediction: Panthers 27, Chargers 20
Detroit @ Arizona
"I'm a huge Matthew Stafford fan. He's got incredible talent," ESPN's Ron Jaworski conceded this week, discussing Detroit's Jekyll & Hyde passer. "But he is wildly inconsistent, wildly inaccurate. He throws from so many different platforms, not a consistent throwing slot. I really do have to wonder, what is he doing at practice? What is he doing in the offseason to improve those flaws?" Stafford's league-high pass attempt and completion totals keep him on the QB1 radar, but his maddening inconsistency and Week 15 matchup with Arizona's blitz-heavy, top-five pass defense make Stafford a dicey play on the road. I would start Colin Kaepernick, Josh Freeman, and Ben Roethlisberger over him. ... The Cardinals are expected to let Patrick Peterson shadow Calvin Johnson on all Week 15 pass plays. Don't be surprised if Megatron steals his lunch money. "Some people in the league that I talk to say that, they don't think he's a great player," plugged-in Sirius XM Radio host Adam Caplan said of Peterson this week. "Some people like him, some people don't." Opinions are likely split because Peterson is a beastly physical talent, but gives up a ton of catches. Megatron will dog-walk Peterson all over the field if the Cards don't give him safety help.
With Brandon Pettigrew nursing an apparent high ankle sprain, Mike Thomas demoted, and Titus Young and Ryan Broyles out of the picture, tight end-turned-slot receiver Tony Scheffler has been elevated to the No. 2 option in the most pass-heavy offense in football. And considering how weak the position has been in fantasy this year, you can make a case that Scheffler is a top-eight tight end in Week 15. Scheffler played 62-of-85 snaps (72.9 percent) in last week's loss at Green Bay. He's the No. 13 fantasy tight end over the past three weeks. ... To the surprise even of Lions beat writers, Thomas was benched for Kris Durham against the Packers. Thomas went catch-less, while Durham secured four balls for 54 yards. They're both waiver fodder at this point. ... With Mikel Leshoure struggling, the Lions' backfield has officially devolved into a two-man timeshare. Leshoure and Joique Bell shared the workload evenly in Week 14, and this week they face Arizona's bottom-three run defense. Both Bell and Leshoure are in the Week 15 flex discussion, although the muddled backfield curbs each Detroit back's fantasy upside and increases the risk. The matchup is great, but in fantasy semifinals week the situation would ideally be avoided.
The Cardinals rank dead last in the league in points scored, yardage gained, and rushing yards, and they're 28th in passing. While the Lions' defense is hardly a juggernaut, Arizona's offense has bypassed the Jets' as fantasy football's most barren wasteland. Week 15 starting quarterback Ryan Lindley has completed 48.3 percent of his 120 attempts this season for 507 yards (4.2 YPA), no touchdowns, and five interceptions. He's turned the ball over twice more on fumbles. There is not a single Arizona skill-position player worth trusting in the fantasy playoffs. Beanie Wells, Rob Housler, Andre Roberts, Michael Floyd, and even Larry Fitzgerald all belong on benches.
Score Prediction: Lions 23, Cardinals 9
4:25PM ET Games
Kansas City @ Oakland
Last Thursday's return from a four-game ankle injury confirmed that Darren McFadden remains a poor system fit in Oakland's zone-blocking scheme as he was bottled up for seven yards on five first-half carries. The game also confirmed that McFadden still offers plenty of big-play ability as he ripped off a 36-yarder on the first play of the second half. McFadden shouldn't have to worry about his team falling behind at home versus Kansas City, and DMC racked up a season-best 114 rushing yards in these teams' Week 8 meeting at Arrowhead. No one is talking about Chiefs-Raiders because the game has zero playoff implications, but there are fantasy points to be had. Facing Kansas City's No. 27 run defense, consider McFadden a strong RB2 play in Week 15. ... Marcel Reece has resumed lead-blocking duties in the Oakland backfield, carrying the rock just four times for ten yards in last week's loss to Denver. Reece added one catch for five yards and lacks value in the fantasy playoffs. ... After a Week 13 benching, Denarius Moore's starting job was restored against the Broncos. Although he finished with just four catches for 43 yards on six targets, Moore played 47-of-53 offensive snaps (88.7 percent) and is every bit capable of catching fire in the last two fantasy weeks. Moore shredded Kansas City for 96 yards and a touchdown on five grabs in the aforementioned Week 8 meeting. Consider Moore a high-ceiling WR3 this week.
Raiders TE Brandon Myers is a target-dependent fantasy player because he doesn't make big plays, averaging 10.4 yards per catch. While there is theoretically every reason to think Myers will rebound from his two-target Week 14 performance -- which resulted in a one-catch, seven-yard clunker -- it's notable that Kansas City has allowed the third fewest receptions to tight ends. Myers is a back-end TE1 in Week 15. ... Darrius Heyward-Bey scored a fourth-quarter garbage-time touchdown from 56 yards out versus Denver. Heyward-Bey is 50th in fantasy receiver scoring this season, so chasing last week's points is more likely to prove detrimental than beneficial to fantasy teams. DHB was held to 32 yards on one reception in Week 8, spending most of the contest in Chiefs top CB Brandon Flowers' coverage. ... Raiders No. 3 receiver Rod Streater has seven catches for 196 yards and a touchdown over his last two games, benefiting from Moore's Week 13 benching and long grabs of 64 and 58 yards. Streater's previous long catch on the season went for 25. The emergence of an undrafted rookie as a viable third wideout is a promising sign for rookie GM Reggie McKenzie's eye for talent, but Streater won't be a realistic play in the fantasy semifinals.
Jamaal Charles has at least 100 total yards in five consecutive games and ranks No. 4 in fantasy running back scoring over that span, behind only Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster, and Doug Martin. That's pretty elite company. The Raiders are 26th in run defense and have allowed the third most rushing TDs in football. Charles is an RB1 in Week 15. ... With Dwayne Bowe done for the year, Charles is Kansas City's only worthwhile skill-position player in fantasy leagues. Jon Baldwin is the favorite to lead the Chiefs in receiving during the season's final three weeks, but Baldwin has played poorly all year. Tony Moeaki, Dexter McCluster, and Terrance Copper are next in line.
Score Prediction: Raiders 23, Chiefs 14
Pittsburgh @ Dallas
Dez Bryant secured 2-of-2 targets for 36 yards and a touchdown after fracturing his index finger in the fourth quarter of last week's win over the Bengals. That in and of itself would be enough for me personally to start a red-hot Bryant against Pittsburgh's beat-up secondary, but the possibility exists that Dez will be used mostly as a decoy while playing with a "hard splint" on his left hand. ESPN's Ed Werder explored the latter notion on Mike & Mike Thursday. "Even if he doesn't catch the ball effectively, they could put him on the field ... and the Steelers not know that. And still command a lot of double coverage," Werder suggested. "Because he can still run. So if he's ineffective in the game and Romo doesn't throw to him, the Steelers and Dick LeBeau might think it's because the coverage they're playing on him isn't making him available to Romo. This is an injury they can conceal, at least maybe for a game, how detrimental it might be to him catching a football." The best fantasy advice I can give is to trust your gut. Mine says to start Dez, especially after Werder reported Friday that the Cowboys have found a "solution" to protect Bryant's broken finger, allowing him to catch footballs. ... Tony Romo's target distribution over the last month: Bryant 38, Jason Witten 35, Miles Austin 26, Dwayne Harris 19, Cole Beasley 16, DeMarco Murray 10, Felix Jones and Kevin Ogletree 8. ... Whether he's employed as a decoy or not, there is little doubt at this stage that Dez will dress and start the game. Dallas' third receiver committee of Harris, Beasley, and Ogletree won't offer a Week 15 fantasy option with Bryant, Austin, and Witten all available.
Ike Taylor (ankle) is out. Steelers starting CBs Cortez Allen and Keenan Lewis are both nursing hip flexor injuries, and Pittsburgh nickel back Curtis Brown was benched for practice squad callup Josh Victorian in Week 14 after Brown was burned relentlessly by Chargers backup slot receiver Micheal Spurlock. Allen is listed as doubtful for Week 15. This is a favorable matchup for Austin, Witten, and Bryant, if Dez is actively involved in the game plan. Consider Austin an attractive WR3, and start Witten confidently. ... His receivers all look like recommended plays, but No. 13 overall fantasy quarterback Romo is more of a QB2 facing a talented Pittsburgh pass rush behind Dallas' leaky offensive line. ... After studying the Week 14 Dallas-Cincinnati game tape, NFL Films' Greg Cosell suggested this week that DeMarco Murray's ankle may still be hindering him. "Their O-Line could not block the D-Line for the Bengals," Cosell said. "Murray looked very upright and stiff. He does not have a lot of lateral movement. I don't know if his ankle is still bothering him, but he did not look good." I thought Murray looked a bit better than that, particularly late in the game when he was ripping off chain-moving runs to position K Dan Bailey for his 40-yard game-winning field goal. Nevertheless, Murray is hard to justify as more than a low-end RB2 against the Steelers' top-five run defense.
Washington, Philadelphia, and Cincinnati's rushing offenses have combined to light up DC Rob Ryan's Cowboys defense for 478 yards and three touchdowns on 78 carries (5.13 YPC) the past three weeks. Due to inside linebacker and nose tackle injuries, Ryan's group is most vulnerable up the middle. Inside runner Jonathan Dwyer butters his bread on runs up the gut, so this is a plus matchup for Pittsburgh's lead back. Dwyer, however, would be easier to trust if he hadn't been held to 211 yards and a single touchdown on his last 64 carries (3.30 YPC), looking sluggish in the process. The matchup is right. The recent performance from Dwyer is not. ... Returning from a three-game absence due to rib and shoulder injuries, Ben Roethlisberger hit a Week 14 groove in the second half of Pittsburgh's loss to San Diego, after a painfully slow start. Big Ben completed 17 of his final 29 passes for 243 yards (8.38 YPA), three touchdowns, and an interception to close out the game. While it'd be ideal for Ben put together four quarters of that kind of production before declaring him a QB1 again, upside seekers shouldn't be afraid to do so immediately against a sputtering Dallas pass defense beneath the JerryWorld dome. It's easy to forget Roethlisberger was on pace for career-best stats across the board before going down.
On 42 attempts, Big Ben's target distribution in his first game back: Mike Wallace 11, Antonio Brown and Heath Miller 9, Dwyer and Emmanuel Sanders 4, Plaxico Burress 2. ... Resuming every-down receiver duties following a half-hearted Week 13 benching, Wallace played 62-of-66 snaps (93.9 percent) against San Diego and should be locked back into fantasy lineups as an every-week starter. ... Brown is a disappointing 44th in per-game fantasy receiver scoring this season, but will be difficult to bench with Roethlisberger and his own health restored. Brown is a WR3 with ample upside in Big D. ... Miller is back on the low-end TE1 radar in a difficult Week 15 matchup. The Cowboys have surrendered the third fewest yards in the league to tight ends, and it's conceivable that Miller would do a lot of in-line "help" blocking against DeMarcus Ware.
Friday Update: Cowboys CB Morris Claiborne suffered a setback during the practice week in his recovery from a concussion. His absence would upgrade the fantasy matchups for Roethlisberger and particularly Wallace. "He got a little dizzy yesterday, so I'm not sure about his availability for this game," DC Rob Ryan told the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, speaking of Claiborne. "But I know he's doing everything he can. And he's got to pass these tests." The Cowboys already lost nickel back Orlando Scandrick to injured reserve with a fractured hand.
Score Prediction: Steelers 24, Cowboys 21
Sunday Night Football
San Francisco @ New England
The Patriots have gotten a lot of recent recognition for an improved defense, but they have also faced the offensively inept Jets and Dolphins, and run-minded Texans the past three weeks. New England still ranks 30th versus the pass and struggles to rush the passer. This is a good-looking matchup for Colin Kaepernick. I also think it's worth examining why Jim Harbaugh benched Alex Smith in the first place, and I don't think it was to have Kaepernick manage games like he did for most of last week's win over Miami. Harbaugh changed QBs to add dimensions to his offense and -- I believe -- give himself the option of opening things up when necessary with a hose-armed athlete under center. I think Harbaugh will deem it necessary against New England. I expect the Niners to play aggressively in Foxboro, attacking the Patriots' coverage-deficient linebackers with Vernon Davis and letting Kaepernick spray the ball around. Harbaugh is smart enough to know New England will score points, even on Vic Fangio's studly defense, and the best way to combat a high-scoring offense is by keeping pace on the scoreboard. Kaepernick's performances to this point suggest his fantasy floor is pretty high, and his ceiling is a top-seven QB scorer if the passing and rushing production come together in the same game. I think this can be the game.
Sit Kaepernick if you think the Niners will attack the Patriots by attempting to run the ball down the throat of New England's No. 8 run defense. Gore is a solid fantasy start because he's always a good bet for quality workloads and goal-line touchdowns, but I don't think that will be Harbaugh's approach. ... Kaepernick's target distribution on the year: Michael Crabtree 35, Davis 19, Mario Manningham 17, Randy Moss 16, Delanie Walker 10, Gore 8. ... Crabtree plays slot receiver enough that he should avoid Patriots top CB Aqib Talib's coverage on a healthy dose of snaps. Kyle Arrington is New England's slot corner. As the go-to option in San Francisco's passing game and a top-20 fantasy receiver over the past five weeks, Crabtree has earned every-week WR3 consideration. ... It's understandably difficult to put a ton of faith in Davis because he's turned in three straight clunker games. But the Pats allow the most fantasy points to tight ends in the AFC, and this would seem to be an ideal matchup for Harbaugh to remove Davis' shackles. He's a high-risk, high-reward TE1 with as much Week 15 upside as any tight end out there. ... Manningham (shoulder) was listed as doubtful on Friday's final injury report and will be inactive for Sunday Night Football. Look for first-round pick A.J. Jenkins in an increased role off the bench.
Whereas some defenses scheme to take certain offensive players away, the 49ers under Fangio employ a straightforward strategy. They are a great defense, and they dare offenses to beat them. San Francisco has no obvious defensive weakness, but Tom Brady will surely find one and attack it without relent. ... In terms of just guessing where that may be, the first one-on-one matchup that comes to mind is Wes Welker against 49ers slot CB Carlos Rogers. Rogers is a good player, but Welker's unique quickness makes him very hard for a 6-foot, 192-pound corner to cover. I like Welker to lead New England in Week 15 receiving. ... If Welker doesn't, the best bet behind him will be Aaron Hernandez. With 16 catches for 155 yards and two touchdowns over his last two games, Hernandez is the hottest tight end in the NFL. Look for the 49ers to use ILB Patrick Willis in coverage of Hernandez on a large number of Sunday night's snaps. Again, Willis is a really good player, but that's a matchup Hernandez should win. ... Despite Rob Gronkowski’s (forearm) return to Friday’s practice, he is not expected to play before Week 17. ... Brady's target distribution since Hernandez returned from injury three games ago: Welker 37, Hernandez 27, Brandon Lloyd 15, Danny Woodhead 7, Julian Edelman 6, Shane Vereen 4, Daniel Fells 3, Donte' Stallworth 2.
Lloyd's 7-89-1 line in last week's drubbing of Houston was a positive development for Brady, but isn't necessarily an indication of box-score stats to come. Lloyd has struggled against physical press coverage all season, and Fangio's defense plays press-man in the back end. Lloyd is back on the WR3 radar, but this is not a favorable matchup for him. ... Edelman and Stallworth are out for the year, so Deion Branch has been re-signed as New England's No. 3 receiver. ... Vereen gained 40 yards on eight Week 14 carries, playing the change-of-pace role behind Stevan Ridley. Vereen is a complementary back only and not a fantasy option. ... Woodhead's ball-handling role has continued to dwindle. He received three touches against the Texans and is no longer roster-able in PPR or standard leagues. ... San Francisco ranks second in the NFL in run defense and has permitted three rushing touchdowns in 13 games. While this appears to be a brutal matchup, Ridley has been matchup proof all year. In four 2012 meetings with top-ten run defenses, Ridley has racked up 328 yards and three touchdowns on 81 carries (4.05 YPC). In fact, Ridley had his best game of the season (28-151-1) against Denver's No. 6 run defense. Having reached pay dirt in six consecutive games, Ridley has earned a starting RB2 slot in fantasy semifinals lineups.
Score Prediction: 49ers 28, Patriots 27
Monday Night Football
NY Jets @ Tennessee
Jake Locker's target distribution since Dowell Loggains replaced Chris Palmer as Titans offensive coordinator two games ago: Kendall Wright 19, Kenny Britt 17, Jared Cook 15, Nate Washington 13, Chris Johnson 9. ... Britt has responded to being more of an offensive focal point by securing 10 balls for 183 yards and a touchdown in those two weeks. Unfortunately, Britt will be difficult to use in fantasy leagues in a Week 15 matchup with Antonio Cromartie. The updated stat lines of players covered by Cromartie since Darrelle Revis' Week 3 ACL tear: Brian Hartline (twice) 1-41, 4-41; Michael Crabtree 2-15; Andre Johnson 1-15; Reggie Wayne 5-87; Brandon Lloyd (twice) 1-6, 3-26; Sidney Rice 2-54-2; Chris Givens 4-19; Larry Fitzgerald 1-23; Justin Blackmon 6-57. ... If Cromartie indeed shadows Britt all over the field on Monday night, Wright could be the primary box-score beneficiary. Wright will square off with much more burnable Jets CBs Kyle Wilson and Ellis Lankster, and is a sneaky WR3 play for desperate fantasy owners. ... Washington has been third in line for targets in Tennessee's receiver corps, clearing 70 receiving yards in just 2-of-13 appearances this season. Washington has some big-play ability (16.6 yards per reception) and is never a terrible bet for a long bomb, but he's not much of an option in fantasy semifinals week.
Cook tore his rotator cuff in last week's loss to the Colts and will be replaced by a combination of blocking specialist Craig Stevens and rookie project Taylor Thompson. Look elsewhere for tight end sleepers. ... Locker's big-play ability keeps him in the two-quarterback league mix against the Jets' No.3 pass defense, but the second-year passer has been an inconsistent, turnover-prone disappointment this season. In easier matchups than he'll face Monday night, Locker has thrown for just three touchdowns while turning the ball over nine times the past three weeks. ... Slumping Johnson has hit a wall since Tennessee's Week 11 bye, failing to clear 4.0 yards per carry or find pay dirt in the three ensuing games. Johnson has managed just 95 yards on his last 33 rushing attempts (2.88 YPC). I think he has finished runs with effort and generally played better than those stats indicate, however, and Johnson has the sort of Week 15 matchup that could result in a blowup game. The Jets rank 29th against the run and field the slowest front seven in football. If Johnson gets to the edge against this group, he will be gone. He is a strongly recommended RB1 on Monday night.
Although their offense has scored 20 points just once in the last six games, the Jets remain in the playoff hunt in a talent-lacking, top-heavy AFC. With Mark Sanchez at quarterback, the best way for New York to stay competitive is to lean heavily on its run game. The Jets have done just that during their two-game win streak, peppering Arizona and Jacksonville with a combined 85:47 run-to-pass ratio. Due to the utter lack of passing volume, no Jets pass catcher exceeded 40 yards in either game. This is the brand of football Rex Ryan understandably wants to play, but it's bad news for the box-score outlooks of Jeremy Kerley and newly acquired Braylon Edwards. Dustin Keller (ankle) will not play. No Jets receiver or tight end is a legit option in the fantasy playoffs. ... On the other hand, workload and touches should be there for New York's backfield timeshare Monday night as Shonn Greene and Bilal Powell take on Tennessee's No. 23 run defense. Figuring out just which Jets back will emerge with more production has been an unforeseeable week-to-week fantasy dilemma over the last month. In Weeks 11 and 12, Powell was the superior fantasy scorer. Week 13 was Greene's. Last week, both Greene and Powell proved worthwhile flex plays with nearly 80 rushing yards and a touchdown apiece. Thinking logically, the fractured toe ostensibly suffered by Powell in the Jets' Week 14 win at Jacksonville should vault Greene to the forefront of the committee this week. Powell should not be in fantasy semifinals lineups. Greene is worth a look as a desperation flex.
Friday Update: Ryan is now saying Powell's toe is not fractured, although he hasn't practiced and is dealing with soreness in his foot. Greene remains the superior bet for carries in the Jets' backfield Monday night.
Score Prediction: Titans 20, Jets 17