Week 17 Rankings

Week 17 Tight Ends

Sunday Update: Rob Gronkowski, Brandon Pettigrew on. Vernon Davis off. Tony Gonzalez down slightly. Considering the unreliability of tight ends this season, I couldn't sit Gronk unless I had a top-three tight end. Even if Gronk is in a limited role, his upside is high enough to justify starting him in fantasy leagues.

TE Notes: Even with Aaron Hernandez's Week 16 whiff, he's still second in fantasy points over the past three weeks and third over the past five weeks. ... Jimmy Graham is overdue for a touchdown after posting his second-highest targets (11), receptions (7), and yards (88) of the season last week. ... Jason Witten has the benefit of a must-win game Sunday night. ... In a season of disappearing acts at tight end, Greg Olsen has been a fantasy rock. He's seventh in fantasy points over the past three weeks, sixth over the past five weeks, and sixth on the season. 

Owen Daniels hasn't topped 45 yards since Week 11. ... Jermichael Finley, on the other hand, has cleared 50 yards in five of the past six games. ... Similarly, Jacob Tamme has at least 45 yards in four of the past five weeks. ... I don't trust Dennis Pitta and Jermaine Gresham to play the entire game, but I think 2-3 quarters is a reasonable expectation. ... I wouldn't expect quite that much playing time for a 36-year-old Tony Gonzalez with the No. 1 already secured.

Antonio Gates has scored in consecutive games, but he's still not consistently targeted. ... Looking for a surprise breakout player at tight end? Former Pitt star Dorin Dickerson saw season highs in targets (8), receptions (4), and yards (54) after Scott Chandler went down with an ACL tear last week. ... Lance Kendrick's slow-footed 80-yard touchdown last week was nine yards longer than any single-game yardage total since he entered the league. ... Brandon Myers has managed just 32 yards over the past three weeks. He can't be trusted with the Leinart-Pryor tag-team replacing Carson Palmer.

Top 10 TEs for 2013:

1. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots

2. Jimmy Graham, Saints

3. Aaron Hernandez, Patriots

4. Jason Witten, Cowboys

5. Tony Gonzalez, Falcons

6. Greg Olsen, Panthers

7. Antonio Gates, Chargers

8. Vernon Davis, 49ers

9. Kyle Rudolph, Vikings

10. Martellus Bennett, Giants 

Week 17 Team Defense

 Week 17 Kickers

Last updated 12:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, December 30, 2012

Confession: I've never played in a fantasy football league that uses the relatively unpredictable NFL regular-season finale as championship week. I have, however, participated in Dynasty leagues where the fantasy playoffs coincide with the NFL playoffs and Super Bowl. As a result, I've been setting Week 17 starting lineups since the late '90s. 

Veterans of the fickle finale realize demonstrated production and in-depth efforts at fantasy analysis often take a back seat to liberal substitution patterns and the subsequent wild third- and fourth-quarter momentum swings featuring surprising scoring binges from bench-warmers.  

The best we can do is take an educated stab at which teams will be leaving their key players in for the majority of the game. For a good read on playing-time scenarios, check out Adam Levitan's helpful breakdown of each NFC and AFC playoff contender from Wednesday's Daily Dose. 

Ex-Colts president Bill Polian is no longer running an organization, so we don't have to worry about any team issuing an edict to limit starters to one offensive series. As Colts blogger Brad Wells points out, it seems NFL coaches have caught on to the notion that they have no control over the uncontrollable in the season's final week. 

The guess here is that the Falcons and Ravens are the two teams most likely to pull their starters at halftime. Baltimore is locked into the No. 4 seed barring a Patriots loss to the Dolphins in New England. Although Atlanta coach Mike Smith has vowed not to change his game-plans or schemes this week, second-half playing time is up in the air now that the NFC's No. 1 seed is under wraps. When in doubt go with fantasy-relevant players on the teams with their playoff livelihoods on the line, such as Cowboys-Redskins. Tony Romo, RGIII, Alfred Morris, DeMarco Murray, Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, and Jason Witten are all no-brainer fantasy starters this week.

While Dez leads all fantasy receivers in points over the past five weeks, his quarterback has largely flown under the radar. Romo has more passing yards (1,769) and touchdowns (13) than any QB over that same span, ranking second only to Cam Newton in fantasy points. He faces a Redskins secondary that has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs this season. It's hard to find a better fantasy option for the season finale. 


Week 17 Quarterbacks

Sunday Update: Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton, Matt Ryan down. 

QB Notes: Cam Newton is fantasy's No. 1 QB over the past five weeks, averaging more than 30 points per game. While the Saints run defense has stiffened, they remain a dream matchup for opposing passers. ... Even in a disappointing season without offensive guru and master play-caller Sean Payton, Brees is sitting at the top of the fantasy mountain at quarterback. He's averaging 362 yards the past four games while scoring seven times in Weeks 15-16. ... With a playoff bye on the line, a piping-hot Aaron Rodgers should be good for four quarters against the Vikings. ... Peyton Manning, though, is a candidate to be pulled early in a game that has "blowout" written all over it. ... Tom Brady could be in for a similar fate if the Pats jump out to a commanding lead in the first 2-3 quarters. 

Russell Wilson is fourth in fantasy points over the past five weeks while the Seahawks have become the first team since the 1950 Rams to score 150 points over a three-game stretch. ... Michael Vick returns from exile to face a Giants defense allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to QBs. Vick will be auditioning for the Jets, Bills, Cardinals, Chiefs, Jaguars, and others this week. ... Ben Roethlisberger joins Matthew Stafford in missing key passing-game weapons this week. ... I'm expecting two quarters out of Matt Ryan. If you expect more or less, adjust your rankings accordingly. ... Eli Manning has played two of the worst games of his career the past two weeks. 

Already QB2s at best, Andy Dalton and Joe Flacco can't be trusted to play all four quarters. ... Although Ryan Tannehill's season has been up-and-down, he's done one thing consistently well: Throwing an accurate deep ball. ... With Colt McCoy and Brandon Weeden sitting out a second straight practice, Thad Lewis looks like the favorite to start versus a Steelers defense already starting to lick its chops. ... Matt Leinart and Terrelle Pryor are splitting first-team reps in practice and are both likely to see action at San Diego. 

Top 10 QBs for 2013:

1. Drew Brees, Saints

2. Aaron Rodgers, Packers

3. Tom Brady, Patriots

4. Peyton Manning, Broncos

5. Cam Newton, Panthers

6. Robert Griffin III, Redskins

7. Matt Ryan, Falcons

8. Matthew Stafford, Lions

9. Tony Romo, Cowboys

10. Andrew Luck, Colts 

Week 17 Running Backs

Sunday Update: Ray Rice down, Bernard Pierce up. Montell Owens inactive, Keith Toston up. BenJarvus Green-Ellis down, Chris Johnson up, Chris Ivory up.

RB Notes: How dominant was O.J. Simpson's record-setting 1973 season? Adrian Peterson is averaging an eye-popping 126.5 rushing yards through 16 weeks. The Juice averaged 143.1 per game en route to 2,003 rushing yards in a 14-game season. Peterson is 208 yards shy of Eric Dickerson's single-season record. He burned the Packers for 210 yards five weeks ago. If he does it again, All Day will also tie Earl Campbell's record of seven games with 150+ yards. 

Arian Foster is averaging 164 rushing yards in four career games versus the Colts, who sport a defense allowing 5.1 YPC this season. ... C.J. Spiller trails Foster by 143 rushing this season -- on 152 fewer carries. ... A model of consistency, Marshawn Lynch has been held under 85 rushing yards just twice all season. ... Alfred Morris needs 104 yards versus the Cowboys' waning run defense to break Clinton Portis' single-season franchise record. Portis is pulling for the humble rookie. ... A legit RB1 since taking over for Willis McGahee, Knowshon Moreno is sixth in fantasy points over the past five weeks while averaging 27 touches per game as a starter. ... None of us knows how much playing time Ray Rice will receiver this week. If you don't believe he makes it past the first quarter, move him down at least 10 spots in your personal rankings. 

The Broncos have the NFL's best run defense since their Week 7 bye. Over that stretch, Jamaal Charles is the only back to top 100 yards against Von Miller & Co. Charles had 165 yards in the third quarter alone last week. ... DeMarco Murray's fantasy value has been stabilized by touchdowns and consistent work in the passing game. ... Shonn Greene is 12th in fantasy points over the past three weeks, 16th over the past five weeks, and 14th on the season. ... Seattle's run defense has been spotty in the second half of the season. Don't let the matchup scare you off of Steven Jackson, who is fifth in yards from scrimmage over the past five weeks. 

Chris Johnson, on the other hand, is hard to trust even in an attractive matchup against a Jags defense allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing backs. While Johnson has scored three touchdowns of 80+ yards this season, he's also been held under 30 rushing yards in five games this season. He's topped 55 rushing yards just once in the past four weeks. ... Stevan Ridley has a tough matchup and may not get in a full four quarters if the Pats jump out to an early lead. ... Darren Sproles has been on fire in the passing game, posting 111 more receiving yards than the next-closest back over the past five weeks.

Matt Forte is tentatively expected to play in a must-win game, but his lack of practice work is an ominous sign for his fantasy value. ... Ahmad Bradshaw can't be trusted to touch the ball 15+ times in what may end up a meaningless game for the G-Men. ... Rashard Mendenhall was clearly superior to Jonathan Dwyer last week. ... Don't be surprised if Jacquizz Rodgers or Jason Snelling leads the Atlanta backfield in carries and yards this week. ... Montario Hardesty is fully expected to draw the start at Pittsburgh with Trent Richardson in spot duty -- if he manages to suit up. ... The Packers are going with the dreaded hot hand approach. ... David Wilson, Ben Tate, Lamar Miller, LaMichael James, Bernard Pierce, and Ronnie Hillman are the best candidates to pull a 2004 Willie Parker and tally 100 yards in the ultimate garbage time. 

Top 10 RBs for 2013:

1. Adrian Peterson, Vikings

2. Arian Foster, Texans

3. Ray Rice, Ravens

4. Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks

5. Trent Richardson, Browns

6. C.J. Spiller, Bills

7. Doug Martin, Buccaneers

8. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs 

9. LeSean McCoy, Eagles

10. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars

Week 17 Wide Receivers

Sunday Update: Roddy White, Julio Jones, Torrey Smith, A.J. Green, Randall Cobb, Hakeem Nicks down. Anquan Boldin off. Harry Douglas slight bump. I don't expect Roddy to do much more than keep his consecutive games streak alive after sitting out practice all week. With the Ravens treating the finale like an exhibition game, it's going to be hard for the Bengals to play their starters more than a quarter or two. 

WR Notes: Entering Week 16, the most receiving yards the Falcons had surrendered to wide receivers in one game was 232 against the Saints in Week 13. Calvin Johnson racked up 225 yards on his own while breaking Jerry Rice's single-season record. He'll be gunning for at least 108 yards this week to reach a cool 2,000 on the season. ... Dez Bryant leads all receivers in fantasy points over the past three weeks and the past five weeks while placing third on the season. He's found the end zone in seven consecutive games. 

Coach Marvin Lewis insists he's finally learned his lesson after resting starters in the past. If you take him at his word, Green is properly ranked as a top-five fantasy receiver. If you believe Marvin's pants are on fire, drop Green to Julio Jones/Roddy White territory. ... The Texans have to win at Indy to secure a playoff bye, so Andre Johnson should play the entire game. ... The Colts are locked into the No. 5 seed, but Reggie Wayne says the team is too young to use the regular-season finale as a "rest" game. ... With a touchdown and/or 100+ yards in four consecutive games, Steve Smith has been a top-10 fantasy receiver over the past five weeks.

Outside of the Week 15 outlier, Danario Alexander has been a consistent fantasy stud in the second half of the season. Keep him rolling against a burnable Raiders secondary. ... I would expect roughly two quarters apiece out of Julio Jones and Roddy White in a matchup with the NFL's most generous pass defense. ... A streaking James Jones is the best bet among the Packers receivers with Randall Cobb's (ankle, knee) status in question, Jordy Nelson likely to be rusty, and Greg Jennings still not quite himself. ... After an 8-catch, 111-yard game last week, Larry Fitzgerald is back on the radar with Brian Hoyer at the helm. 

Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders should see a boost in targets with Heath Miller out and Mike Wallace in doubt versus the Browns. ... Stevie Johnson draws Antonio Cromartie, but he's been arguably the most successful receiver in the league versus elite shadow corners. ... Keep an eye on Jeremy Maclin's knee flare-up; he expects to return to practice on Friday. ... I wouldn't trust Hakeem Nicks to play a full four quarters in what will likely end up a meaningless game for the Giants. ... Ditto Torrey Smith for the Ravens. ... Kenny Britt is still dealing with swelling in his surgically repaired left knee. ... Josh Gordon vs. Greg Little is a toss-up at this point. ... I would take T.Y. Hilton's playmaking potential over Donnie Avery's any week. 

Top 10 WRs for 2013:

1. Calvin Johnson, Lions

2. Dez Bryant, Cowboys

3. A.J. Green, Bengals

4. Julio Jones, Falcons

5. Demaryius Thomas, Broncos 

6. Brandon Marshall, Bears

7. Percy Harvin, Vikings

8. Andre Johnson, Texans

9. Vincent Jackson, Buccaneers

10. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals

Week 17 Tight Ends

Sunday Update: Rob Gronkowski, Brandon Pettigrew on. Vernon Davis off. Tony Gonzalez down slightly. Considering the unreliability of tight ends this season, I couldn't sit Gronk unless I had a top-three tight end. Even if Gronk is in a limited role, his upside is high enough to justify starting him in fantasy leagues.

TE Notes: Even with Aaron Hernandez's Week 16 whiff, he's still second in fantasy points over the past three weeks and third over the past five weeks. ... Jimmy Graham is overdue for a touchdown after posting his second-highest targets (11), receptions (7), and yards (88) of the season last week. ... Jason Witten has the benefit of a must-win game Sunday night. ... In a season of disappearing acts at tight end, Greg Olsen has been a fantasy rock. He's seventh in fantasy points over the past three weeks, sixth over the past five weeks, and sixth on the season. 

Owen Daniels hasn't topped 45 yards since Week 11. ... Jermichael Finley, on the other hand, has cleared 50 yards in five of the past six games. ... Similarly, Jacob Tamme has at least 45 yards in four of the past five weeks. ... I don't trust Dennis Pitta and Jermaine Gresham to play the entire game, but I think 2-3 quarters is a reasonable expectation. ... I wouldn't expect quite that much playing time for a 36-year-old Tony Gonzalez with the No. 1 already secured.

Antonio Gates has scored in consecutive games, but he's still not consistently targeted. ... Looking for a surprise breakout player at tight end? Former Pitt star Dorin Dickerson saw season highs in targets (8), receptions (4), and yards (54) after Scott Chandler went down with an ACL tear last week. ... Lance Kendrick's slow-footed 80-yard touchdown last week was nine yards longer than any single-game yardage total since he entered the league. ... Brandon Myers has managed just 32 yards over the past three weeks. He can't be trusted with the Leinart-Pryor tag-team replacing Carson Palmer.

Top 10 TEs for 2013:

1. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots

2. Jimmy Graham, Saints

3. Aaron Hernandez, Patriots

4. Jason Witten, Cowboys

5. Tony Gonzalez, Falcons

6. Greg Olsen, Panthers

7. Antonio Gates, Chargers

8. Vernon Davis, 49ers

9. Kyle Rudolph, Vikings

10. Martellus Bennett, Giants 

Week 17 Team Defense

 Week 17 Kickers