Chet Gresham

Targets and Touches

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Week 17 Target Watch

Saturday, December 29, 2012


Hello Rotoworlders! Thanks for reading along as we explored the magical world of targets this season. Here are some notes for week 17. Next week I’ll wrap up the year by looking at who the target studs were over the full 17 weeks. Don’t miss out on that. You may regret it for the rest of your life.

 

Wide Receivers

RkPlayerWk13Wk14Wk15Wk16TargT/TmG
1 Calvin Johnson 20 13 17 16 66 16.5
2 Brandon Marshall 14 19 7 14 54 13.5
3 A.J. Green 13 8 10 18 49 12.2
4 Wes Welker 18 9 9 12 48 12
5 Vincent Jackson 8 10 12 15 45 11.2
6 Michael Crabtree 11 11 12 9 43 10.8
7 Mike Williams 12 7 7 17 43 10.8
8 Pierre Garcon 11 9 12 9 41 10.2
9 Jeremy Maclin 5 13 9 14 41 10.2
10 Demaryius Thomas 10 7 9 14 40 10
11 Andre Johnson 7 10 13 10 40 10
12 Justin Blackmon 6 12 11 11 40 10


The top-five target guys over the last month look pretty familiar as well as many that follow, but there are a few players we aren't used to seeing up here.

Michael Crabtree hadn't seen 10 or more targets until Week 13, so this is no doubt a high volume stretch for him. During these last four weeks Crabtree ranks sixth in receptions with 27, sixth in yards with 366 yards and not so oddly sixth in targets. His two receiving touchdowns are keeping him from being a huge fantasy contributor, but he does still rank seventh in fantasy points over that time. It looks like Colin Kaepernick likes him some Crabtree.

Pierre Garcon has been high on the target list since returning from his foot injury, but he wasn’t fully back until Week 12. Over these last four weeks Garcon has 41 targets compared to Josh Morgan's 17, Santana Moss' 12, Leonard Hankerson's 11, and Logan Paulsen's 10. RG III has thrown the ball 71 times during that span, so Garcon has seen 58% of the targets. That's some craziness.

Justin Blackmon is tied for 10th in targets over the last four weeks, but ranks 37th in fantasy points during that span. That has a lot to do with Chad Henne and that Cecil Shorts was the #1 guy while in the game.

RkPlayerWk13Wk14Wk15Wk16TargT/TmG
13 Reggie Wayne 9 10 8 12 39 9.8
14 Steve Smith 9 12 9 8 38 9.5
15 Brandon Lloyd 1 9 16 12 38 9.5
16 Antonio Brown 10 9 12 6 37 9.2
17 Donnie Avery 14 9 5 9 37 9.2
18 Julio Jones 8 11 6 11 36 9
19 Larry Fitzgerald 7 11 5 12 35 8.8
20 Stevie Johnson 5 8 12 10 35 8.8
21 Cecil Shorts 12 dnp 11 11 34 8.5
22 Mike Wallace 8 11 10 5 34 8.5
23 Roddy White 7 11 5 10 33 8.2
24 Jason Avant 5 12 4 12 33 8.2
25 Dez Bryant 6 6 9 12 33 8.2
26 Chris Givens 14 10 4 5 33 8.2
27 Marques Colston 11 4 3 13 31 7.8
28 Brian Hartline 10 8 6 7 31 7.8


Reggie Wayne's numbers have fallen off a bit from the start of the season when he was consistently at the top of the targets list each week. In real life this is probably due to Andrew Luck getting the offense down a little better and distributing the ball better, but it has hurt Wayne's fantasy numbers some. As you can see, the top guys are also the only guys on their team that get targets.

Brandon Lloyd's numbers continue to stand steady over the last three weeks. This seems like a real trend going into the last week and playoffs, but is more of a backhanded slap to those who thought this should have happened throughout the season.

Antonio Brown has found the end zone for three straight games which means the Mayans were right on target. He has had tremendous trouble scoring touchdowns so far in his career, but he is the most complete receiver on the team and it's hard not to believe his touchdown numbers will start looking more like the last three weeks than they have in his early career.

Dez Bryant and Tony Romo have been extremely productive on just eight targets a game. With his ability to catch balls in traffic and run after the catch it doesn't take many targets to make him a top three fantasy receiver.

 

 

RkPlayerWk13Wk14Wk15Wk16TargT/TmG
29 Josh Gordon 7 12 8 3 30 7.5
30 Miles Austin 2 10 10 8 30 7.5
31 Danario Alexander 10 11 3 6 30 7.5
32 Jordan Shipley 8 7 4 10 29 7.2
33 Denarius Moore 8 6 8 7 29 7.2
34 Anquan Boldin 12 3 6 7 28 7
35 Michael Floyd 10 5 5 8 28 7
36 Greg Little 5 7 9 7 28 7
37 Eric Decker 2 9 11 6 28 7
38 Greg Jennings 8 4 7 9 28 7
39 Victor Cruz 8 9 5 5 27 6.8
40 T.Y. Hilton 12 5 6 4 27 6.8


Eric Decker isn't getting a ton of targets, but he's getting into the end zone enough for it not to matter. Demaryius Thomas is 10th in targets over the last four weeks while Decker is 37th. That makes Thomas the safer fantasy player, but Manning does love Decker in the red zone.

T.Y. Hilton's target numbers continue to surprise me. Donnie Avery is up there at 17th overall, while Hilton, the more dynamic receiver, is down here at 40. His target numbers are still too unreliable for fantasy in Week 17, but I'm high on him going into next season.

Greg Jennings leads all Packers' wide receivers in targets over the last four weeks with 28, but it's close with Randall Cobb at 26, James Jones at 24 and Jermichael Finley with 24 as well. Rodgers is spreading the ball around well, but Jones has been finding the end zone more than the rest. Of course with Cobb hurting and Jordy Nelson practicing in full, these numbers are quite volatile.


continue story »
Chet Gresham writes Target Watch and The Morning After for Rotoworld.com and is the founder of The Fake Football. Chet can be found on Twitter .
Email :Chet Gresham



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