Quarterbacks1.
Tom Brady, Patriots
2.
Peyton Manning, Broncos
3.
Aaron Rodgers, Packers
It's easy to view MVP candidates Brady and Manning as a coin-flip at the top. I'm giving the slight edge to Brady, as he's been far superior in the playoffs with five Super Bowl appearances. Now that Gronkowski and Hernandez are finally close to peak form, Brady may be directing the best offense of his career over the next month. ... Manning finished the regular season with
Broncos records for completions (400), passing yards (4,659), touchdowns (37), completion percentage (68.6), and passer rating (105.8). Perhaps an even more impressive indication of Manning's dominance, Denver scored
172 more points than the 2011 squad with quarterback as the only major addition. After ranking
32nd in completion percentage last year, the Broncos were 2nd in 2012. ... Rodgers was
at or near the top in
accuracy on passes of 20+ yards,
accuracy on all aimed throws, and accuracy under pressure. He also
took more sacks than any QB in the league this season. The upshot is that Rodgers is streaking into the playoffs with a chance to play one more game than his NFC counterparts.
4.
Matt Ryan, Falcons
5.
Russell Wilson, Seahawks
6.
Colin Kaepernick, 49ers
Still seeking his first career playoff win, Ryan has the luxury of the Georgia Dome's friendly environs. Only Brady owns
a better home record over the last five seasons. ... Perhaps the league's most creative scrambler since Fran Tarkenton, Wilson has been no slouch as a passer since mid-season. The rookie's passer ratings over the past eight weeks: 127.3, 131.0, 125.9, 104.9, 88.0, 104.4, 115.3, 136.3. Manning is the
only quarterback with more games featuring a 90+ Total QBR than Wilson's five. Joe Flacco is the
only quarterback with a greater percentage of deep throws than Wilson. ... Kaepernick finished with the same number of pass attempts (213) in seven starts as Alex Smith compiled in nine starts. The Packers-Vikings winner isn't a bad matchup for the 49ers' passing attack; Kaepernick's ranking comes down to how confident you are in his ability to move on to the NFC Championship game.
7.
Robert Griffin III, Redskins
8.
Joe Flacco, Ravens
9.
Matt Schaub, Texans
10.
Andrew Luck, Colts
11.
Andy Dalton, Bengals
12.
Christian Ponder, Vikings
RGIII said this week that his knee feels good and that he's been able to do
more each week since the injury. He's still going to be limited by a bulky leg brace in a tough matchup versus the Seahawks. Griffin finished the season
first in the NFL in yards per pass, yards per rush, and INT rate. It's interesting to note that he and Russell Wilson
each passed 393 times, with one leading in yards and the other in touchdowns. ... Flacco is the
only quarterback in NFL history to reach the playoffs in each of his first five seasons. He's won at least one game every year. For all of his maddening ups and downs, Flacco is still one of the league's
elite deep passers. ... Schaub is in a
month-long funk. It's on Gary Kubiak to get
more creative with his schemes and play-calling against a rabid Bengals defense.
Luck's
65 completions of 20+ yards are the most in the NFL this season. I've never seen a young quarterback with more poise or better instincts in the pocket. He can't be counted out even if the rest of his team is overmatched. ... The Bengals offense has
stalled of late, in large part because an overly hesitant Dalton has
taken too many sacks. Unless A.J. Green has a lot more success against Johnathan Joseph this year than last, it's hard to imagine Dalton moving the offense consistently. ... Following a deep November slump, Ponder is coming off a
three-game stretch of above-average performances. I have no confidence that he will extend that streak at Lambeau Field in his first game fighting the elements under 40 degrees.
Running Backs
1. Knowshon Moreno, Broncos
2. Arian Foster, Texans
3. Stevan Ridley, Patriots
4. Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks
5. Adrian Peterson, Vikings
6. Ray Rice, Ravens
An argument can be made for any of the backs in this tier to top the list. Moreno gets the nod here because he's a three-down back on the Super Bowl favorite after closing the season tied for fantasy's No. 5 back over the final five weeks. After replacing Willis McGahee in the starting lineup in Week 12, Moreno averaged a cool 25 touches per game. ... Too much has been made of Foster's decline in yards per carry this season. He may no longer have the fifth gear that he flashed in his 2010 breakout season, but he's cutting as sharply and decisively as ever. The revamped o-line, on the other hand, has underperformed. ... Ridley would be No. 1 if he didn't have to worry about Danny Woodhead stealing passing-down work and Brandon Bolden or Shane Vereen vulturing goal-line opportunities. ... Clearing 85 rushing yards in every game but two, Lynch shattered his career high by 386 yards as perhaps the most consistent back in the league. If you believe Seattle can run the gauntlet with three road games, it's not a reach to grab Lynch as the first back off the board.
Peterson's virtuosity cannot be overstated. His 409 yards in devastating the Packers this season are the fourth-most by any player versus a single opponent in a season. His 861 December yards set the record for most in a month -- and would have placed him 19th among backs for the entire season. Peterson demolished the competition in big plays and forced missed tackles, averaging more yards after contact than Foster did total. His 1598 yards over the final 10 games were more than all but Alfred Morris had for the entire season. If you believe Peterson is not one-and-done, draft him first. ... Rice draws a Colts defense that surrendered 165 to Jamaal Charles in one quarter two weeks ago, but it's a tall order to expect more than two games with a matchup looming against the Broncos or Patriots.
7. Frank Gore, 49ers
8. Alfred Morris, Redskins
9. DuJuan Harris, Packers
Gore was just 18th in fantasy points over the final five weeks with a YPC average of 3.66 after being well over 5.0 for the majority of the season. It's the second straight season that his effectiveness has tailed off down the stretch, which certainly isn't usual for an aging back. ... Morris has at least 20 carries in every game since the Redskins' Week 10 bye. His 1,613 rushing yards is the third-highest total for a rookie in NFL history. His ranking here reflects the Skins' status as underdogs this week. ... Mike McCarthy insists the Packers don't have a starting running back, but it's clear that Harris has developed the hot hand. The coaching staff is doing everything they can to "keep progressing" Harris because "he does have unique skills and run ability."
10. Michael Turner, Falcons
11. Danny Woodhead, Patriots
12. Jacquizz Rodgers, Falcons
13. Vick Ballard, Colts
14. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Bengals
It's no secret around these parts that I haven't liked what I've seen on Turner's film for the better part of a year and a half now. His speed and leg drive have evaporated, he's losing snaps and touches to Jacquizz Rodgers, and his fantasy value is almost completely reliant on goal-line opportunities. ... Would you believe Woodhead finished 25th in fantasy points this season? Darren Sproles was the only back with more of a fantasy impact in the passing game. ... Ballard is a good bet for 20 touches at Baltimore, but he's scored just three times this season. ... Green-Ellis will be playing at less than full strength against a Texans defense that allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing backs. I can't envision the Bengals running the ball with success on Saturday.
15. Ryan Grant, Packers
16. Ben Tate, Texans
17. LaMichael James, 49ers
18. Bernard Pierce, Ravens
19. Brandon Bolden, Patriots
20. Shane Vereen, Patriots
Harris has the hot hand in Green Bay, but it's worth wondering if that was primarily due to the Metrodome's faster surface. Grant is more of a grinder, which should mean a bigger role on the redundantly-named frozen tundra of Lambeau Field. ... Tate, James, Pierce, Bolden, and Vereen are the best of the pure backups.
21. Alex Green, Packers
22. Ronnie Hillman, Broncos
23. Robert Turbin, Seahawks
24. Lance Ball, Broncos
25. Jason Snelling, Falcons
26. Cedric Peerman, Bengals
27. Brian Leonard, Bengals
28. James Casey, Texans
29. Justin Forsett, Texans
30. James Starks, Packers
31. John Kuhn, Packers
32. Evan Royster, Redskins
33. Delone Carter, Colts
34. Anthony Dixon, 49ers
35. Leon Washington, Seahawks
36. Toby Gerhart, Vikings
37. Mewelde Moore, Colts
38. Vonta Leach, Ravens
39. Darrel Young, Redskins
40. Michael Robinson, Seahawks
Green didn't see a single snap in the regular-season finale. At this point it's hard to imagine a significant role for the playoffs, but there's not a more fluid backfield than Green Bay's. ... Hillman isn't guaranteed to enter the playoffs as Moreno's primary backup after landing in the doghouse for fumbling last week. ... Peerman and Leonard will split touches if Green-Ellis' hamstring injury flares up. ... Eligible at running back on most fantasy sites, Casey is a sneaky play in deep leagues.
Last updated 7:15 p.m., January 2, 2013
Welcome to Rotoworld's seventh annual post-season fantasy football ranks. I never understood why standard fantasy football leagues end in Weeks 14-16, leaving diehard fans with nothing at stake during the most important -- and entertaining -- games of the season. It's anti-climactic. Unless you play in a Dynasty league that synchronizes with the NFL playoffs, the best way to stay involved is by redrafting with league mates or friends for the "second season."
The main distinction between regular fantasy football and the lesser played post-season variety is that the latter uses cumulative points. Total games played is the most important factor, which means your primary directive is picking players on winning teams.
By virtue of the eye test, won-loss records, advanced metrics, demonstrated fantasy production, and Super Bowl odds, the Broncos and Patriots dominate this year's fantasy playoff ranks as the class of the AFC. For every point in favor of Denver, there is a counterpoint in favor of New England -- and vice versa. Paring a Von Miller-led disruptive defense with Peyton Manning's high-scoring offense, the Broncos are riding an 11-game winning streak (all by a touchdown or more). The Patriots scored the third-most points in NFL history despite losing their two most dangerous skill-position players for nearly two months apiece.
The NFC, on the other hand, is a pure crapshoot. While the Seahawks are perched atop Football Outsiders' metrics, Las Vegas has relegated Pete Carroll's squad to fourth in the NFC after finishing the season 3-5 on the road. Why is Seattle a 3 point favorite at Washington with a sub-.500 road record? With the possible exception of Denver, no team is hotter. Since Week 13, the Seahawks boast the best scoring offense and defense in the league.
Playing their best ball of the season, the Packers' odds are good as any team in the NFC. The advantage they have over the Falcons and 49ers is that they have a shot to play an extra game -- at home in subfreezing weather against a QB yet to play with the temperature below 40 degrees. It's no surprise that the domed Vikes have lost four in a row when faced with the extreme cold. Vegas has installed Green Bay as 7.5 favorites.
While the Colts enter the playoffs riding the wave of the NFL's feel-good story of the year, metrics and odds are stacked against them. In fact, Football Outsiders has labeled Indy as "the worst 11-5 team in NFL history." If that's not enough, the Ravens are countering with their own drama-infused story. Perhaps the greatest motivator of his generation, Ray Lewis announced that January will be his "last ride." Sunday's game is taking on an "end of an era" feel with fellow future Hall of Famer Ed Reed a candidate to join Lewis in hanging up the spikes. "Wherever it ends," said Lewis, "I didn't come back for it to end in the first round." John Harbaugh is the only coach in NFL history to win a playoff game in each of his first four seasons. Sporting a 6-2 home record, the Ravens have been installed as 6.5-point favorites.
Whereas I felt strongly last season that the Texans were a far better team than the Bengals, the two are moving in opposite directions this time around. Houston's offense appears to be broken, having reached the end zone just three times in the past 4.5 games. Although Cincinnati's offense hasn't fared any better, Mike Zimmer's "salty" defense finished second to the Broncos in sacks. Can Andy Dalton be trusted on the road to lead the franchise to its first playoff victory in 23 years? Vegas is skeptical, leaving the Texans as 4.5-point favorites.
One omen working against San Francisco? No Super Bowl champion has ever made it through the regular season without a three-game winning streak. The 49ers are also staring at a tough Divisional Round matchup with the surging Packers while the Falcons will likely draw the Seahawks-Redskins winner.
Final team efficiency ratings via @fboutsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system:
1. Seahawks
2. Broncos
3. Patriots
4. 49ers
5. Packers
8. Ravens
9. Redskins
10. Falcons
11. Texans
12. Bengals
14. Vikings
25. Colts
Final ratings in @fboutsiders’ weighted DVOA, which is adjusted to diminish the importance of early-season games:
1. Seahawks
2. Broncos
3. Patriots
4. Packers
5. 49ers
6. Redskins
7. Bengals
11. Ravens
13. Falcons
17. Vikings
19. Texans
25. Colts
Football Outsiders’ Playoff Odds Report based on chances of winning the Super Bowl after playing out the season 50,000 times:
1. Broncos - 26.2%
2. Patriots - 24.3%
3. 49ers - 14.3%
4. Seahawks - 10.3%
5. Falcons - 7.7%
6. Packers - 6.6%
7. Bengals - 3.3%
8. Ravens - 3.0%
9. Redskins - 2.8%
10. Texans - 0.9%
11. Vikings - 0.4%
12. Colts - 0.2%
In the last six years, the Super Bowl winners have been sixth, first, second, fifth, third, sixth and fourth seeds. Courtesy of Las Vegas oddsmakers, here are the latest Super Bowl odds:
1. Broncos 11/4
2. Patriots 4/1
3. 49ers 6/1
4. Falcons 7/1
5. Packers 8/1
6. Seahawks 11/1
7. Texans 15/1
8. Redskins 18/1
9. Ravens 22/1
10. Vikings 40/1
11. Bengals 45/1
12. Colts 45/1
On the rankings. For a quick primer on playoff fantasy football, check out Evan Silva’s how-to column from a few years back. The rules are similar to regular fantasy football except that total points are the key. Pick a starting team, possibly a bench, and let them go at it.
Quarterbacks
1. Tom Brady, Patriots
2. Peyton Manning, Broncos
3. Aaron Rodgers, Packers
It's easy to view MVP candidates Brady and Manning as a coin-flip at the top. I'm giving the slight edge to Brady, as he's been far superior in the playoffs with five Super Bowl appearances. Now that Gronkowski and Hernandez are finally close to peak form, Brady may be directing the best offense of his career over the next month. ... Manning finished the regular season with Broncos records for completions (400), passing yards (4,659), touchdowns (37), completion percentage (68.6), and passer rating (105.8). Perhaps an even more impressive indication of Manning's dominance, Denver scored 172 more points than the 2011 squad with quarterback as the only major addition. After ranking 32nd in completion percentage last year, the Broncos were 2nd in 2012. ... Rodgers was at or near the top in accuracy on passes of 20+ yards, accuracy on all aimed throws, and accuracy under pressure. He also took more sacks than any QB in the league this season. The upshot is that Rodgers is streaking into the playoffs with a chance to play one more game than his NFC counterparts.
4. Matt Ryan, Falcons
5. Russell Wilson, Seahawks
6. Colin Kaepernick, 49ers
Still seeking his first career playoff win, Ryan has the luxury of the Georgia Dome's friendly environs. Only Brady owns a better home record over the last five seasons. ... Perhaps the league's most creative scrambler since Fran Tarkenton, Wilson has been no slouch as a passer since mid-season. The rookie's passer ratings over the past eight weeks: 127.3, 131.0, 125.9, 104.9, 88.0, 104.4, 115.3, 136.3. Manning is the only quarterback with more games featuring a 90+ Total QBR than Wilson's five. Joe Flacco is the only quarterback with a greater percentage of deep throws than Wilson. ... Kaepernick finished with the same number of pass attempts (213) in seven starts as Alex Smith compiled in nine starts. The Packers-Vikings winner isn't a bad matchup for the 49ers' passing attack; Kaepernick's ranking comes down to how confident you are in his ability to move on to the NFC Championship game.
7. Robert Griffin III, Redskins
8. Joe Flacco, Ravens
9. Matt Schaub, Texans
10. Andrew Luck, Colts
11. Andy Dalton, Bengals
12. Christian Ponder, Vikings
RGIII said this week that his knee feels good and that he's been able to do more each week since the injury. He's still going to be limited by a bulky leg brace in a tough matchup versus the Seahawks. Griffin finished the season first in the NFL in yards per pass, yards per rush, and INT rate. It's interesting to note that he and Russell Wilson each passed 393 times, with one leading in yards and the other in touchdowns. ... Flacco is the only quarterback in NFL history to reach the playoffs in each of his first five seasons. He's won at least one game every year. For all of his maddening ups and downs, Flacco is still one of the league's elite deep passers. ... Schaub is in a month-long funk. It's on Gary Kubiak to get more creative with his schemes and play-calling against a rabid Bengals defense.
Luck's 65 completions of 20+ yards are the most in the NFL this season. I've never seen a young quarterback with more poise or better instincts in the pocket. He can't be counted out even if the rest of his team is overmatched. ... The Bengals offense has stalled of late, in large part because an overly hesitant Dalton has taken too many sacks. Unless A.J. Green has a lot more success against Johnathan Joseph this year than last, it's hard to imagine Dalton moving the offense consistently. ... Following a deep November slump, Ponder is coming off a three-game stretch of above-average performances. I have no confidence that he will extend that streak at Lambeau Field in his first game fighting the elements under 40 degrees.
Running Backs
1. Knowshon Moreno, Broncos
2. Arian Foster, Texans
3. Stevan Ridley, Patriots
4. Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks
5. Adrian Peterson, Vikings
6. Ray Rice, Ravens
An argument can be made for any of the backs in this tier to top the list. Moreno gets the nod here because he's a three-down back on the Super Bowl favorite after closing the season tied for fantasy's No. 5 back over the final five weeks. After replacing Willis McGahee in the starting lineup in Week 12, Moreno averaged a cool 25 touches per game. ... Too much has been made of Foster's decline in yards per carry this season. He may no longer have the fifth gear that he flashed in his 2010 breakout season, but he's cutting as sharply and decisively as ever. The revamped o-line, on the other hand, has underperformed. ... Ridley would be No. 1 if he didn't have to worry about Danny Woodhead stealing passing-down work and Brandon Bolden or Shane Vereen vulturing goal-line opportunities. ... Clearing 85 rushing yards in every game but two, Lynch shattered his career high by 386 yards as perhaps the most consistent back in the league. If you believe Seattle can run the gauntlet with three road games, it's not a reach to grab Lynch as the first back off the board.
Peterson's virtuosity cannot be overstated. His 409 yards in devastating the Packers this season are the fourth-most by any player versus a single opponent in a season. His 861 December yards set the record for most in a month -- and would have placed him 19th among backs for the entire season. Peterson demolished the competition in big plays and forced missed tackles, averaging more yards after contact than Foster did total. His 1598 yards over the final 10 games were more than all but Alfred Morris had for the entire season. If you believe Peterson is not one-and-done, draft him first. ... Rice draws a Colts defense that surrendered 165 to Jamaal Charles in one quarter two weeks ago, but it's a tall order to expect more than two games with a matchup looming against the Broncos or Patriots.
7. Frank Gore, 49ers
8. Alfred Morris, Redskins
9. DuJuan Harris, Packers
Gore was just 18th in fantasy points over the final five weeks with a YPC average of 3.66 after being well over 5.0 for the majority of the season. It's the second straight season that his effectiveness has tailed off down the stretch, which certainly isn't usual for an aging back. ... Morris has at least 20 carries in every game since the Redskins' Week 10 bye. His 1,613 rushing yards is the third-highest total for a rookie in NFL history. His ranking here reflects the Skins' status as underdogs this week. ... Mike McCarthy insists the Packers don't have a starting running back, but it's clear that Harris has developed the hot hand. The coaching staff is doing everything they can to "keep progressing" Harris because "he does have unique skills and run ability."
10. Michael Turner, Falcons
11. Danny Woodhead, Patriots
12. Jacquizz Rodgers, Falcons
13. Vick Ballard, Colts
14. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Bengals
It's no secret around these parts that I haven't liked what I've seen on Turner's film for the better part of a year and a half now. His speed and leg drive have evaporated, he's losing snaps and touches to Jacquizz Rodgers, and his fantasy value is almost completely reliant on goal-line opportunities. ... Would you believe Woodhead finished 25th in fantasy points this season? Darren Sproles was the only back with more of a fantasy impact in the passing game. ... Ballard is a good bet for 20 touches at Baltimore, but he's scored just three times this season. ... Green-Ellis will be playing at less than full strength against a Texans defense that allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing backs. I can't envision the Bengals running the ball with success on Saturday.
15. Ryan Grant, Packers
16. Ben Tate, Texans
17. LaMichael James, 49ers
18. Bernard Pierce, Ravens
19. Brandon Bolden, Patriots
20. Shane Vereen, Patriots
Harris has the hot hand in Green Bay, but it's worth wondering if that was primarily due to the Metrodome's faster surface. Grant is more of a grinder, which should mean a bigger role on the redundantly-named frozen tundra of Lambeau Field. ... Tate, James, Pierce, Bolden, and Vereen are the best of the pure backups.
21. Alex Green, Packers
22. Ronnie Hillman, Broncos
23. Robert Turbin, Seahawks
24. Lance Ball, Broncos
25. Jason Snelling, Falcons
26. Cedric Peerman, Bengals
27. Brian Leonard, Bengals
28. James Casey, Texans
29. Justin Forsett, Texans
30. James Starks, Packers
31. John Kuhn, Packers
32. Evan Royster, Redskins
33. Delone Carter, Colts
34. Anthony Dixon, 49ers
35. Leon Washington, Seahawks
36. Toby Gerhart, Vikings
37. Mewelde Moore, Colts
38. Vonta Leach, Ravens
39. Darrel Young, Redskins
40. Michael Robinson, Seahawks
Green didn't see a single snap in the regular-season finale. At this point it's hard to imagine a significant role for the playoffs, but there's not a more fluid backfield than Green Bay's. ... Hillman isn't guaranteed to enter the playoffs as Moreno's primary backup after landing in the doghouse for fumbling last week. ... Peerman and Leonard will split touches if Green-Ellis' hamstring injury flares up. ... Eligible at running back on most fantasy sites, Casey is a sneaky play in deep leagues.
Wide Receivers
1. Demaryius Thomas, Broncos
2. Wes Welker, Patriots
3. Eric Decker, Broncos
4. Julio Jones, Falcons
5. Roddy White, Falcons
6. Andre Johnson, Texans
More consistent than the touchdown-reliant Decker, Thomas produced 75 yards or a score in 14 of 16 games with Peyton Manning under center. Decker did finish furiously, placing second to Michael Crabtree in fantasy points over the final three weeks and fourth over the final five. ... Only three receivers had more targets than Welker's 175. He may see a slight dropoff with both Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski healthy, but he's been heavily involved in the offense every week since the season opener. ... Julio and Roddy have traded big games all season. I still prefer Jones' upside as the more explosive playmaker. ... Johnson has a daunting opening matchup, as Danario Alexander (Week 13, 102 yards) is the only receiver to reach 100 yards against the Bengals this season. On the flip side, Johnson finished as the No. 1 receiver in Pro Football Focus' ratings, playing the best ball of his career over the past two months. Johnson was held under 95 yards and seven receptions just once in the final seven games.
7. Greg Jennings, Packers
8. Randall Cobb, Packers
9. Michael Crabtree, 49ers
10. A.J. Green, Bengals
11. James Jones, Packers
12. Jordy Nelson, Packers
13. Torrey Smith, Ravens
14. Brandon Lloyd, Patriots
The Packers were lucky to open the season with too many mouths to feed in the passing game. Cobb picked up the slack when Jennings went down, Jones stepped up when Nelson and Jermichael Finley were injured, and Jennings returned the favor once Cobb finally missed a game. From a fantasy perspective, though, good luck figuring out which receiver will blow up in a given week. Jennings is favored here for two reasons: 1. He's finally back to 2010 form, with Aaron Rodgers admitting that 85 was open all game on the Week 16 game film before an explosion in the regular-season finale. 2. Cobb and Nelson aren't fully healthy. Both players were limited in Wednesday's practice. Cobb insists there's a "100 percent" chance he will play in the rematch with the Vikings, but Nelson's status is murkier. Nelson looked good running Wednesday, but the team doctor "has some concerns" and needs further evaluation before clearing Rodgers' favorite vertical threat for game action. The guess here is that the medical staff is being overly cautious, as was the case late in last week's game.
It turns out that the promotion of Colin Kaepernick and the absence of Mario Manningham were the perfect storm for Michael Crabtree's chances of emerging as a legit No. 1 receiver. Over Kaepernick's seven starts, Crabtree has 66 targets compared to 26 for the next-closest teammate. Roughly half of Crabtree's 1,105 yards came in the final five games, when only Dez Bryant had more fantasy points. ... A.J. Green managed just five catches for 47 yards against Johnathan Joseph in last year's playoff loss. He's going to have to dominate the matchup for the Bengals to join the other 31 NFL teams in producing a post-season win in the past 23 years. ... Smith and Lloyd have been hit-or-miss all season, but have the talent to put together have a strong playoff run.
15. Reggie Wayne, Colts
16. Pierre Garcon, Redskins
17. Anquan Boldin, Ravens
18. Sidney Rice, Seahawks
19. Golden Tate, Seahawks
20. T.Y. Hilton, Colts
Drawing more defensive attention, Wayne reached 65 yards just once in the last five weeks while being outscored by Hilton. Wayne still finished second in targets, fifth in receptions, seventh in yards, and second in Pro Football Focus' wide receiver ratings. Hilton, meanwhile, leads the NFL with five touchdowns on throws of 20+ yards. Hilton accounted for nine of the 18 Colts plays that measured 32 yards or more. Outside of Donnie Avery's four, no other teammate had more than one. ... According to PFF, Garcon was second among all receivers with 2.93 yards per route run this season. ... Boldin is practicing in full this week after sitting out the meaningless regular-season finale to rest his shoulder. ... Rice and Tate are more talented than their numbers suggest, but it's telling that Percy Harvin saw more targets (85) in nine games than any Seahawks or Redskins did all season.
21. Brandon Stokley, Broncos
22. Donnie Avery, Colts
23. Randy Moss, 49ers
24. Doug Baldwin, Seahawks
25. Santana Moss, Redskins
26. Jacoby Jones, Ravens
27. Kevin Walter, Texans
28. Marvin Jones, Bengals
29. Harry Douglas, Falcons
30. Andrew Hawkins, Bengals
31. Leonard Hankerson, Redskins
32. Jarius Wright, Vikings
33. Josh Morgan, Redskins
34. DeVier Posey, Texans
35. Deion Branch, Patriots
36. Jerome Simpson, Vikings
37. Lestar Jean, Texans
38. A.J. Jenkins, 49ers
39. Michael Jenkins, Vikings
40. Ted Ginn, 49ers
41. Jeremy Ross, Packers
Stokley is a nice sleeper in PPR formats. ... Randy Moss' 26 targets are the second-most on the team since Kaepernick took over at quarterback. ... Wright closed out the season in impressive fashion, but he's going to run into a slower track in Green Bay. ... Jacoby, Ginn, and perhaps even Ross are worth a look in deeper return-yardage leagues.
Tight Ends
1. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots
2. Aaron Hernandez, Patriots
Despite missing five games, Gronk finished with more fantasy points than any tight end in the playoffs. In leagues that combine wide receivers and tight ends, he's every bit as valuable as Demaryius Thomas. ... Fantasy's top tight end over the final five weeks, Hernandez isn't far behind Gronkowski. The two are in a league of their own at the position entering the post-season.
3. Tony Gonzalez, Falcons
4. Jacob Tamme, Broncos
5. Jermichael Finley, Packers
6. Owen Daniels, Texans
7. Vernon Davis, 49ers
8. Dennis Pitta, Ravens
Gonzalez is coming off his best season in a Falcons uniform at age 36. He forced 16 players to miss tackles this season, the second-highest figure Pro Football Focus has recorded for a tight end in the past half-decade. ... The three highest yardage totals of Tamme's season came in the last six games. He's still behind Joel Dreessen in the red-zone pecking order. ... Finley returned to practice Wednesday after sitting out Tuesday with a swollen eye. He quietly broke the single-season franchise record for receptions by a tight end while topping 50 yards in six of the final seven games. ... The Texans plan to get Daniels more involved in the offense during the playoffs after injuries siphoned his production in December. ... Davis may only be averaging a catch per over the past six games, but the monstrous fantasy output from last January can't be forgotten. He was a post-season MVP candidate, averaging 137 yards and 1.3 touchdowns in three games. ,,, Pitta finished as fantasy's No. 7 tight end in an inconsistent breakout year.
9. Jermaine Gresham, Bengals
10. Kyle Rudolph, Vikings
12. Delanie Walker, 49ers
12. Joel Dreessen, Broncos
13. Dwayne Allen, Colts
14. Zach Miller, Seahawks
15. Coby Fleener, Colts
16. Garrett Graham, Texans
17. Anthony McCoy, Seahawks
18. Ed Dickson, Ravens
19. Logan Paulsen, Redskins
20. Virgil Green, Broncos
Bump Gresham one tier if you believe the Bengals will get off the playoff schneid. Gresham pulled off a nearly impossible feat this season, leading all tight ends in yards after the catch yet still finishing last in Pro Football Focus' ratings for the position. ... Rudolph hauled in half of Christian Ponder's 18 touchdown passes this season. ... Walker has an 18-to-11 target edge on Vernon Davis since Week 12. A utility tight end, Walker is an example of game film matching advanced statistics. Anecdotal evidence suggests the Walker's passing-game role is limited primarily to a few downfield "shot" plays per game, and his 220 yards on deep passes led all tight ends. ... Fleener has taken a backseat to fellow rookie Allen, who has drawn comparisons to Heath Miller for his well-rounded game. ... Zach Miller had the highest catch rate among tight ends this season, but McCoy had more fantasy points over the last five games.
Kickers
1. Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots
2. Matt Prater, Broncos
Gostkowski set a career high with 153 points this season, falling just one field goal shy of breaking Gino Cappelletti's franchise record. ... Prater tied Steven Hauschka for the most fantasy points among kickers over the last five weeks.
3. Mason Crosby, Packers
4. Matt Bryant, Falcons
5. Steven Hauschka, Seahawks
6. Justin Tucker, Ravens
7. Shayne Graham, Texans
Crosby appeared to get the monkey off his back last week, but he's not without risk. He gets a bump with the likelihood of playing at least two games. ... In the year of the rookie kicker, Tucker was unfairly overshadowed by Blair Walsh and Greg Zuerlein. ... Graham's 38 field goal attempts were second only to David Akers' 32, as the Texans too often stalled in the red zone over the final month.
8. Billy Cundiff, 49ers
9. David Akers, 49ers
10. Kai Forbath, Redskins
11. Josh Brown Bengals
12. Blair Walsh, Vikings
13. Adam Vinatieri, Colts
Cundiff was signed to compete with Akers, whose accuracy has been shot to hell by a pelvis injury. Akers has missed kicks in five of the past six games, which suggests Cundiff would be the more reliable option. Whether that holds true in practices the next two weeks is anyone's guess. ... Forbath has missed just one kick since taking over for Cundiff in October. ... Walsh set an NFL record by going 9-of-9 on field goals over 50 yards, but he's never kicked in subfreezing temperatures.
Team Defense
1. Broncos
2. Patriots
3. Seahawks
4. Packers
5. 49ers
6. Falcons
7. Texans
8. Ravens
9. Bengals
10. Redskins
11. Colts
12. Vikings
Denver's defense finished second only to Chicago in standard-scoring leagues. It's the best defense to complement Peyton Manning in his 15-year career. ... The Patriots weren't far behind, finishing third in fantasy points. ... Seattle's defense/special teams was a juggernaut over the final month, producing six fumble recoveries, eight interceptions and three touchdowns. ... The Packers welcome back future Hall of Famer Charles Woodson this week. ... Cincinnati's defense set a franchise record with 51 sacks, just one off the Broncos' league-leading pace. The J.J. Watt-led Texans are ranked higher because I don't trust the Bengals to win on the road with a struggling offense.