Offseason Stock Report II

Last time, we had a big fancy intro. This time, we’ll get right to it. Here are four more players who have gained value this offseason, and four who have lost it.

Gained: Alex Smith

Don’t get it twisted: Smith is still a bridge to the future. Perhaps the very near future. But not the immediate future. He’s gained value just by the sheer virtue of not losing any more of it. Where Smith’s job was in danger even before his concussion last season — despite what the accepted narrative might suggest — nothing is going to knock him out of the starting lineup in 2013. The Chiefs won’t be taking a quarterback at No. 1, and lack the draft-pick ammo to trade back into the first round and nab a slider, say USC's Matt Barkley. They paid an absurd price for Smith. A price that suggests genuine desperation, and guarantees no one else will see their name at the top of the depth chart, barring a season-ending injury.

The “question” is whether Smith will remain productive without Jim Harbaugh calling the shots. A career 57.1 percent passer through 1,514 attempts before Harbs rolled into town, there’s no guarantee Smith will extend his mid-career renaissance into a third season. Andy Reid can manage and manipulate with the best of them, but Smith will be his toughest challenge since becoming a head coach.

It’s doubtful Smith plunges back to his pre-Harbaugh depths, but equally unlikely he continues his slow trudge forward, or comes close to matching the 70.2 completion percentage or 104.1 QB rating he posted before Kaepernick took over last season.  

Lost: Michael Turner

Turner has never exactly been a Ferrari on the football field. His game — which was quite good for some time — was all about power. He was a Hummer H2. In 2012? He was a semi with a four-wheeler engine trying to keep up in the fast lane. He was Shonn Greene’s grandfather.  

After a series of fluky 50-yard gainers helped keep “The Burner’s” yards per carry at a healthy 4.5 in 2011, he had no such luck in 2012, wheezing to a horrendous 3.6 YPC. He was held to 52 yards or fewer in 10 of 16 games, and ≤ 3.3 YPC 10 times. He averaged 3.0 yards per carry over Atlanta’s final four games.

Turner’s inability to sustain drives made the Falcons’ otherwise excellent offense all-too-predictable at all the wrong times. He put nothing on tape to suggest he’ll be able to help a team in 2013. His name should get him a camp invite, or perhaps even some guaranteed money, but Turner will be lucky to touch the ball 150 times. Turner’s career may be only slightly less toast than his five-year streak of 10-plus touchdowns.

Gained: Lamar Miller

Dolphins GM Jeff Ireland makes a lot of mistakes. But it appears one of them won’t be sitting on the jewel of his surprisingly strong 2012 draft class. With Reggie Bush on the way out and Daniel Thomas on the way down, Miller is going to play in 2013, and play a lot.

"Lamar really showed some great signs of really some explosive-play opportunity," Ireland said of Miller’s rookie season. "He kind of shoots out of the cannon when he hits the hole. He’s got very good hands. I thought he did a very good job in his pass protection, which keeps him on the field all three downs."

Therein lies the key. Those magic words: Three downs. It’s what Miller proved he could play in 2012, and a role he should excel at even if he can’t quite match the excellent 4.9 yards per carry he posted last season. Perhaps the single most important element of fantasy success is identifying “Who’s Next?” at running back, and there’s strong reason to believe it’s Miller.  

Lost: Brandon Weeden

For now, grandpa is still in the rocking chair. He might not be for much longer, however. The Browns have let everyone and their mother know that, at the very least, they would like to find some competition for Weeden. In a perfect world, they’d upgrade him.

It’s bad news for the soon-to-be 30-year-old sophomore’s future that the Browns’ new braintrust hasn’t softened its stance after two months of tape review. It suggests that even if Weeden does win the job, it will be by default. It doesn’t sound like something Weeden’s teammates would have an issue with. "He said as a rookie, (Weeden) really had trouble reading defenses from time to time and they had to skew their offense a little bit, sometimes somewhat predictable,” Trent Richardson told NFL Network’s Steve Wyche (T-Rich also said he thought Weeden deserved another chance). Things are so bad for Weeden, names like Matt Flynn, Matt Cassel and Matt Moore are being thrown around as potential competition/upgrades. Matt Freakin’ Cassel.

Barring an extremely hot start to the season — something Weeden didn’t appear capable of as a “rookie” — he’ll be looking over his shoulder from Day 1. That’s a best-case scenario. Worst case? Rob Chudzinski and Norv Turner decide ABW — anyone but Weeden — and set him up for clipboard duties, either in Cleveland or elsewhere.

Last time, we had a big fancy intro. This time, we’ll get right to it. Here are four more players who have gained value this offseason, and four who have lost it.

Gained: Alex Smith

Don’t get it twisted: Smith is still a bridge to the future. Perhaps the very near future. But not the immediate future. He’s gained value just by the sheer virtue of not losing any more of it. Where Smith’s job was in danger even before his concussion last season — despite what the accepted narrative might suggest — nothing is going to knock him out of the starting lineup in 2013. The Chiefs won’t be taking a quarterback at No. 1, and lack the draft-pick ammo to trade back into the first round and nab a slider, say USC's Matt Barkley. They paid an absurd price for Smith. A price that suggests genuine desperation, and guarantees no one else will see their name at the top of the depth chart, barring a season-ending injury.

The “question” is whether Smith will remain productive without Jim Harbaugh calling the shots. A career 57.1 percent passer through 1,514 attempts before Harbs rolled into town, there’s no guarantee Smith will extend his mid-career renaissance into a third season. Andy Reid can manage and manipulate with the best of them, but Smith will be his toughest challenge since becoming a head coach.

It’s doubtful Smith plunges back to his pre-Harbaugh depths, but equally unlikely he continues his slow trudge forward, or comes close to matching the 70.2 completion percentage or 104.1 QB rating he posted before Kaepernick took over last season.  

Lost: Michael Turner

Turner has never exactly been a Ferrari on the football field. His game — which was quite good for some time — was all about power. He was a Hummer H2. In 2012? He was a semi with a four-wheeler engine trying to keep up in the fast lane. He was Shonn Greene’s grandfather.  

After a series of fluky 50-yard gainers helped keep “The Burner’s” yards per carry at a healthy 4.5 in 2011, he had no such luck in 2012, wheezing to a horrendous 3.6 YPC. He was held to 52 yards or fewer in 10 of 16 games, and ≤ 3.3 YPC 10 times. He averaged 3.0 yards per carry over Atlanta’s final four games.

Turner’s inability to sustain drives made the Falcons’ otherwise excellent offense all-too-predictable at all the wrong times. He put nothing on tape to suggest he’ll be able to help a team in 2013. His name should get him a camp invite, or perhaps even some guaranteed money, but Turner will be lucky to touch the ball 150 times. Turner’s career may be only slightly less toast than his five-year streak of 10-plus touchdowns.

Gained: Lamar Miller

Dolphins GM Jeff Ireland makes a lot of mistakes. But it appears one of them won’t be sitting on the jewel of his surprisingly strong 2012 draft class. With Reggie Bush on the way out and Daniel Thomas on the way down, Miller is going to play in 2013, and play a lot.

"Lamar really showed some great signs of really some explosive-play opportunity," Ireland said of Miller’s rookie season. "He kind of shoots out of the cannon when he hits the hole. He’s got very good hands. I thought he did a very good job in his pass protection, which keeps him on the field all three downs."

Therein lies the key. Those magic words: Three downs. It’s what Miller proved he could play in 2012, and a role he should excel at even if he can’t quite match the excellent 4.9 yards per carry he posted last season. Perhaps the single most important element of fantasy success is identifying “Who’s Next?” at running back, and there’s strong reason to believe it’s Miller.  

Lost: Brandon Weeden

For now, grandpa is still in the rocking chair. He might not be for much longer, however. The Browns have let everyone and their mother know that, at the very least, they would like to find some competition for Weeden. In a perfect world, they’d upgrade him.

It’s bad news for the soon-to-be 30-year-old sophomore’s future that the Browns’ new braintrust hasn’t softened its stance after two months of tape review. It suggests that even if Weeden does win the job, it will be by default. It doesn’t sound like something Weeden’s teammates would have an issue with. "He said as a rookie, (Weeden) really had trouble reading defenses from time to time and they had to skew their offense a little bit, sometimes somewhat predictable,” Trent Richardson told NFL Network’s Steve Wyche (T-Rich also said he thought Weeden deserved another chance). Things are so bad for Weeden, names like Matt Flynn, Matt Cassel and Matt Moore are being thrown around as potential competition/upgrades. Matt Freakin’ Cassel.

Barring an extremely hot start to the season — something Weeden didn’t appear capable of as a “rookie” — he’ll be looking over his shoulder from Day 1. That’s a best-case scenario. Worst case? Rob Chudzinski and Norv Turner decide ABW — anyone but Weeden — and set him up for clipboard duties, either in Cleveland or elsewhere.

Lost: Nick Foles

Foles finds himself in a boat similar to Weeden’s, but one with even more leaks. Foles posted some nice stats as a rookie, and put some good things on film. But he’s a hopeless fit for Chip Kelly’s offense, and doesn’t have a future in Philadelphia unless Kelly decides to reinvent the system that earned him his NFL chance in the first place.

That’s not likely. What was likely was a reunion with the man who drafted him, Andy Reid. It won’t happen after Kelly and Company seemingly overplayed their trade hand, however. Now Foles is a man without a country, a backup without a legit chance at a starting job. There’s not enough to go on to acquire him as a starter, and probably not enough incentive for the Eagles to deal him for a fifth- or sixth-round pick. At least until Michael Vick’s next injury, Foles will go down as 2012’s answer to T.J. Yates.

Gained: Ryan Williams

Why is Williams’ stock up? Partially because it couldn’t possibly get any lower. But Bruce Arians and Company sound genuinely enthusiastic about the snakebitten former second-round pick, taking time to pump him up to anyone who will listen.  

Arians “loves” Williams, while GM Steve Keim is “expecting big things.” That’s in stark contrast to Beanie Wells, whom the duo has refused to either confirm or deny. Arians went so far as to leave Beanie’s name out of his introductory press conference. That’s never a good sign, particularly since the Cardinals’ new head man took ample time to praise Williams.  

It’s true that Arians isn’t exactly the run game’s most ardent supporter, but considering his quarterback situation, he’ll have no choice but to lean on his backs in 2013. It sounds like Williams will be the first man up. There’s no guarantee he’ll win the job, or stay healthy if he does. But the fact that he’s in the mix is more than could have been assumed after his disastrous first two seasons.  

Lost: BenJarvus Green-Ellis

Going by yardage and carries, Green-Ellis is coming off a career season. But there’s the first issue. The more the LawFirm is worked, the more he’s exposed. Green-Ellis averaged just 3.9 yards on his 278 totes, enhancing the Bengals’ urgency to find a more explosive change-of-pace backup, or perhaps make BJGE the change-of-pace.

"BenJarvus would probably welcome it," OC Jay Gruden said of a change-of-pace backup. "It takes some carries off of him. Some guys want the ball every single play, but some guys like to get that rest and come out and have that change of pace guy. … You need two good backs you can count on. Like quarterback, you are one heartbeat away from them carrying it every time.”

When Gruden said he thought BJGE would “probably welcome it,” he likely meant he better damn well welcome it. BJGE is hard-nosed, blue-collar back, but simply isn’t talented enough to carry a running game. The Patriots realized it in 2012, and the Bengals have realized it in 2013. He should have value as a goal-line back, but he’ll be more of a RB4/5 after going as far as flirting with low-end RB2 value last season.

Gained: Isaiah Pead

First things first: the same is true of Daryl Richardson. Both backs are in for more opportunities with Steven Jackson on his way out of town. But whereas Richardson established himself as a rookie, Pead did no such thing. Buried inside a labyrinth of mental mistakes — particularly on special teams — Pead ended up touching the ball just 13 times. It made it hard to remember Pead was drafted 202 spots ahead of Richardson, and that the Rams weren't the only team with bigs plans for him.   

But at least one person thinks that’s all going to change in 2013: head coach Jeff Fisher. "We drafted Isaiah because we felt like he has a chance to be a good back, not necessarily just a change-of-pace back, but the guy.” Perhaps Fisher’s comments are part of the reason Adam Schefter is already calling Pead his choice for NFC breakout player of the year.

It’s far too early to know how the Rams will delineate carries in a post-Jackson universe, but it’s not too early to know Pead should be a much bigger part of the offense.