Mike Clay

Dynasty Rankings

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Post-Draft Dynasty Ranks - QB

Friday, May 10, 2013


The NFL draft is in the books, which means rookie drafts and dynasty startups have taken over the fantasy world. Training Camp and the preseason are yet to come, but once the NFL draft is in the books, we have a pretty good idea of how each team’s starting lineup will look come September.

Without further ado, let’s kick this thing off with the ever-important quarterback position.

Quarterback

Smart owners should be aware of the unprecedented amount of depth at the quarterback position. That goes for both redraft and dynasty leagues.

Consider that Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick, and Matthew Stafford will all be under the age of 26 when September 1 rolls around. You could make a case that all six are top-12 redraft options at the position, which really bodes well for the future at the position.

If you’re a savvy fantasy owner, noticing depth at a position is a major advantage. It allows you to focus on shallower positions earlier in your draft, waiting until later to attack the position in question. In 2013 start-up dynasty leagues, you should be waiting quite some time before selecting your first quarterback.

Note: Each player age listed is as of September 1, 2013, which will be near Week 1 of the upcoming season.

Tier 1

Rk

Name

Team

Age

1

Aaron Rodgers

GB

29.7

2

Cam Newton

CAR

24.3

3

Andrew Luck

IND

23.9

4

Robert Griffin III

WAS

23.5



Rodgers is almost in a class of his own at the position, but the new-found depth/youth movement at the position has brought his value back to earth a bit. He’ll be closing in on 30 when the 2013 season begins, which means he should have, at least, five or six more years of superstar production left in the tank. There’s no one else I’d rather have at the position…Newton’s 2012 season was one of two halves. Through eight weeks, a sophomore slump was in full effect with the Carolina offense averaging a pathetic 1.7 offensive touchdowns-per-game. The Panthers improved that mark to 3.1 the rest of the way, which, extrapolated over the entire season, would’ve ranked as the league’s third-highest mark. With Newton under center, Carolina has quietly had one of the league’s top offenses over the last two seasons. With improvements at the wide receiver position, it’s possible we haven’t yet seen Newton’s best work.

The Luck vs. RGIII debate rolls on. In one corner we have the pass-first quarterback in an improving offense who should make sophomore-season leaps with a more conservative approach. In the other corner, we have the read-option/scramble-heavy quarterback who already has an injury red flag attached to his name, but has proven to be the more-productive of the two on a per-play basis. Griffin has a ton of fantasy appeal, but I’m building my franchise around the guy taking fewer hits, especially since he arguably has the same amount of upside.

Tier 2

Rk

Name

Team

Age

5

Russell Wilson

SEA

24.8

6

Drew Brees

NO

34.6

7

Colin Kaepernick

SF

25.8

8

Tom Brady

NE

36.0

9

Matt Ryan

ATL

28.3

10

Matthew Stafford

DET

25.5



After breakout 2012 campaigns, Wilson and Kaepernick are locked in as top-10 dynasty quarterback options. After a slow start, Wilson had the Seattle offense among the league’s elite during the second half of the season. They averaged a remarkable 3.5 offensive scores-per-game from Week 8 on. Kaepernick didn’t take over as starter until mid-season, but was so good that the 49ers were confident in him enough to trade Alex Smith to the Chiefs. Both quarterbacks have added fantasy value thanks to the ability to put up yardage and touchdowns with their legs.

I almost feel like I’m too low on perennial fantasy studs Brees and Brady, but the emergence of the under-26 club in 2012 has me devaluing the older guys. Brees is 34, but signed an extension through 2016 last offseason. Brady’s recent extension takes him through 2017. Because they’re still elite redraft options and all but locked into a starting job for the next few seasons, they get the edge over the likes of Ryan and Stafford. Still, if I’m building my team for the long-term, I’m going with players who will rival them in 2012 and have a longer shelf life (Luck, Wilson, Griffin).

After a massively-productive start to the 2012 season, Ryan finally had the looks of an elite fantasy quarterback. He tailed off as the year progressed, however, sliding back in as a better real-life quarterback than he is fantasy asset. Still, with Julio Jones and Roddy White catching his passes in the Atlanta’s new, pass-first scheme, Ryan remains locked in as decent QB1 option…One year after entering the “elite” conversation in fantasy circles, Stafford took a big step back in 2012. Inconsistent accuracy and questionable decision-making have analysts wondering if Detroit’s pass-heavy offense and Calvin Johnson are making an average quarterback look like a good one. Regardless, Johnson isn’t going anywhere, Stafford will only be 25-years-old, and there’s no sign Detroit is moving away from the pass.

Tier 3

Rk

Name

Team

Age

11

Ben Roethlisberger

PIT

31.4

12

Eli Manning

NYG

32.6

13

Tony Romo

DAL

33.3

14

Peyton Manning

DEN

37.4



Roethlisberger hasn’t played a full 16-game season since 2008. Although that’s certainly a concern, the fact remains that he consistently puts up QB1 production when healthy. In fact, he finished the 2012 season as the No. 21 scoring quarterback, but was No. 11 in fantasy points-per-game…After finishing 2011 as fantasy’s No. 6 quarterback, Manning regressed to No. 17 during a disappointing 2012 season. A healthy Hakeem Nicks and emerging Rueben Randle will help his rebound chances in 2013, but little brother is closing in on 33 years-old. He’s no more than a borderline QB1 in 12-team leagues.

I have Romo ranked as the top backup quarterback in your standard 12-team leagues, but he’s right there with Roethlisberger and Manning. Between the three, Romo is usually the guy you’d want for one game, but he’s also the oldest. He did just receive a long-term contract extension, but it’s not crazy to think Dallas could begin grooming a long-term replacement for Romo in the next year or two…The older Manning brother likely has another year or two left in the tank, but considering his age and recent health issues, there’s reason to be concerned if he’s your top quarterback option. Start him confidently in 2012, but make sure you have a capable backup.

Tier 4

Rk

Name

Team

Age

15

Ryan Tannehill

MIA

25.1

16

Joe Flacco

BLT

28.6

17

Sam Bradford

SL

25.8

18

Andy Dalton

CIN

25.8

19

Jay Cutler

CHI

30.3

20

Philip Rivers

SD

31.7

21

E.J. Manuel

BUF

23.4



Tannehill was better on tape than in the boxscore during his rookie season. It certainly didn’t help that he had one of the worst set of pass-catchers in the league, and that the team scored an unsustainably high number of their touchdowns on the ground. To me, Tannehill is the most-intriguing, young player on the 12-team-league QB2 list. He makes for a borderline starter in deeper formats…Flacco may have peaked during the Ravens’ 2012 playoff run, but he makes the list as a decent QB2 option for a variety of reasons. He’s on a great team, is still only 28-years-old, and just landed a long-term commitment from his team. He doesn’t have the ceiling of a Ryan Tannehill or Michael Vick, but there’s nothing wrong with wanting a solid player over a lottery ticket for bye weeks and short-term injuries.

Bradford had a promising rookie season in 2010 before suffering through an injury-plagued 2011 campaign. The Rams’ front office gave him the ultimate vote of confidence by essentially trading Robert Griffin III for draft picks prior to what turned out to be a decent 2012 season for Bradford, especially later in the year. I think Bradford will top out as an average quarterback, but with what should be the best group of offensive weapons he’s had so far in his career, 2013 is finally a make-or-break year… Dalton isn’t overly exciting on paper, but he quietly finished as the No. 12 fantasy quarterback in 2012. In fact, at one point, the Bengals were a top-five team in offensive scoring. As long as A.J. Green is in the equation, 25 total touchdowns will be in reach for Dalton.

Outside of Brandon Marshall, Cutler didn’t have much to work with in terms of offensive weapons in 2012. The Bears finally exterminated what was left of the Mike Martz stank by adding Martellus Bennett this offseason, giving them their first strong pass-catching tight end since Greg Olsen. Add that to an emerging Alshon Jeffery and a new coaching regime under Marc Trestman, and we have some reason for optimism; there’s just not enough to put him in the QB1 conversation…A few years ago, I thought Rivers was one of the best quarterbacks in football. Whoops. He’s lost of a lot of his weapons due to free agency (which includes some GM incompetence) and injury over the past few seasons, but his overall effectiveness has certainly underwhelmed. He has QB1 upside, but at age 31, we’ve likely already seen his best work.

The first rookie selected in April’s draft, Manuel figures to take over as the Bills’ starting quarterback at some point over the next seven months. He’s a bit raw, and will be working in a new regime in Buffalo, but he has little competition for the job and the talent to make for a nice borderline QB1 within a year or two. He should be the top rookie quarterback drafted.


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Mike Clay is a football writer for Rotoworld.com and the Founder/Managing Editor of Pro Football Focus Fantasy. He can be found on Twitter @MikeClayNFL.
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