Silva's July Top 150Saturday, July 06, 2013
continue story »
Training camps open in just over two weeks. I've been rolling out these Top 150 Rankings every month since April's NFL draft, and they will continue into early September. If you're new to my rankings, here are three things to consider before diving in:
1. Although there are numerous references to points-per-reception (PPR) leagues in the post-player one-liners, these rankings are constructed with standard leagues in mind. I devalue quarterbacks because the position is incredibly deep following the 2012 rookie explosion and return of Peyton Manning. Value-based-drafting (VBD) principles are weighted in. It's basic supply and demand.
2. Jimmy Graham is No. 2 overall. That doesn't necessarily mean I advocate taking Graham with the No. 2 pick; I just gave him the second highest player "grade," because in head-to-head leagues he gives owners the single-biggest week-to-week edge at any position. Become familiar with Average Draft Position (ADP), which is a featured item in the 2013 Rotoworld Draft Guide. Getting a feel for where players typically are drafted will make you a smarter fantasy owner. Once you see Graham's ADP, you'll have a better understanding of where to draft him and still get value.
3. Patriots player rankings may seem a bit unorthodox. Not even accounting for Wes Welker -- whose role will be filled directly by Danny Amendola -- New England's annually high-octane offense must replace 165 receptions, 2,146 total yards, and 16 combined touchdowns from Aaron Hernandez, Brandon Lloyd, and Danny Woodhead without big-money free-agent additions at the latter three's positions. I see them looking to Amendola, Shane Vereen, and to a lesser extent locked-in stars Stevan Ridley and Rob Gronkowski to make up most of the difference. Vereen, Amendola, Ridley, and Gronk may seem to be ranked too high at surface level, but I don't think they are. This is a team quarterbacked by a first-ballot Hall of Famer behind arguably the NFL's best offensive line. It's fielded a top-five offense in five of the past six seasons, and led the league in 2012 offensive snaps. Players in this offense are inevitably going to have big, big years.
1. Adrian Peterson -- The premier offensive skill-position player in football.
2. Jimmy Graham -- Will give owners colossal head-to-head weekly edge.
3. Doug Martin -- Last year's No. 2 fantasy RB gets both stud guards back.
4. Jamaal Charles -- Could make a run for the No. 1 spot in PPR leagues.
5. C.J. Spiller -- Spiller will be leaned on heavily by run-first Doug Marrone.
6. Marshawn Lynch -- Looks more and more like he'll avoid DUI discipline.
7. Trent Richardson -- The foundation of Cleveland's power-running attack.
8. Calvin Johnson -- Best WR of era plays in NFL's pass-happiest offense.
9. Arian Foster -- Piling-up workloads and pre-camp injury are concerns.
10. LeSean McCoy -- Will Chip Kelly's offense work in NFL? If so, look out.
11. Alfred Morris -- Doesn't play in passing game, but ideal rushing volume.
12. Stevan Ridley -- Could be new centerpiece of revamped Patriots offense.
13. Matt Forte -- New Chicago offense will force feed Forte in passing game.
14. Ray Rice -- Bernard Pierce factor is a serious threat to Rice's carries.
15. Steven Jackson -- Sneaky candidate to lead league in rushing scores.
16. Brandon Marshall -- Bears will throw even more under Marc Trestman.
17. Dez Bryant -- Mega-talent has matured, just hitting his stride at age 24.
18. A.J. Green -- Target monster could push Megatron with better QB play.
19. Julio Jones -- As Tony (37) and Roddy (32) get older, Julio gets better.
20. Larry Fitzgerald -- Cinch to bounce back with a competent quarterback.
21. Frank Gore -- Ageless back plays behind league's top run-blocking line.
22. Chris Johnson -- Weekly headache but should benefit from OL upgrades.
23. Andre Johnson -- Top-nine fantasy receiver in four of the last five years.
24. Reggie Bush -- Will be touch machine; should lead all RBs in catches.
25. Demaryius Thomas -- Welker will keep Bay-Bay singled up on outside.
26. Rob Gronkowski -- Huge difference maker even if he misses a few games.
27. Darren McFadden -- Major annual injury risk, but upside remains intact.
28. Lamar Miller -- Primed for fantasy breakout. My tape breakdown is here.
29. Drew Brees -- The reigning No. 1 fantasy QB gets his head coach back.
30. Aaron Rodgers -- Improved run game could slightly cap Rodgers' upside.
31. Cam Newton -- No. 5 fantasy QB as a rookie and No. 4 as a sophomore.
32. Dwayne Bowe -- Excitingly high ceiling under pass-obsessed Andy Reid.
33. Darren Sproles -- One of fantasy's most consistent week-to-week scorers.
34. DeMarco Murray -- Suspect OL and lacks durability; will be unreliable RB2.
35. David Wilson -- Boom-or-bust runner and fantasy pick; explained why here.
36. Randall Cobb -- Aaron Rodgers wants Cobb to catch 100 passes this year.
37. Percy Harvin -- His usage may dip in Seattle, but playmaker and ideal WR2.
38. Danny Amendola -- Health is lone worry; will be WR1 whenever he dresses.
39. Vincent Jackson -- TD total (8) can rise, but QB doesn't inspire confidence.
40. Jordy Nelson -- On pace for 91/1,216/11 line in '12 before hard-luck injuries.
41. Marques Colston -- Arguably fantasy's most consistent year-to-year wideout.
42. Maurice Jones-Drew -- Injured/overworked/bad team. Let someone else draft.
43. Victor Cruz -- Contract is no longer a concern; big-play and volume receiver.
44. Antonio Brown -- Sleeper to lead NFL in receptions as Big Ben's clear No. 1.
45. Roddy White -- Old reliable going on age 32; you know what you're getting.
46. Reggie Wayne -- Another old reliable, but coming off late-season decline.
47. Chris Ivory -- Has RB1 potential if he stays healthy, but little history of that.
48. Peyton Manning -- Still can't get late-game AFCCG ducks out of my head.