Patrick Daugherty

Offseason Low Down

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Best Case/Worst Case: QBs

Friday, July 12, 2013

We’re now officially less than two weeks away from training camp. That means any serious fantasy footballer — and really, these days, is there any other kind? — has already devoured mountains of data, torrents of projections and can after can of Diet Dr. Pepper (ok, maybe that’s just me).

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The point is, though there are important things to be sorted out in camp, we’ve already got a pretty good grip on what we’re expecting from 2013. Emphasis on expecting. So this is a slightly different exercise. We’re not setting out to find what’s most likely to happen. That’s what projections are for. We’re exploring the highest ceilings and lowest floors. What happens if everything goes right? If it all goes wrong?

1. Aaron Rodgers

Best Case: Rodgers rampages his way through another top-two fantasy campaign, once again making 4,500 yards and 40 touchdowns look ridiculously easy as he wins his second MVP award in three years.  

Worst Case: Greg Jennings is missed more than anyone thought possible, Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson can’t stay healthy and Jermichael Finley’s hands are still stone after all. Rodgers enters Week 17 needing over 500 yards to reach 4,000.

2. Drew Brees

Best Case: Like a new edition of “Madden,” not much truly changes. Brees eclipses 5,000 yards for the unfathomable fourth time as the revenge-minded Saints pillage their way deep into the postseason. Brees finishes as the No. 1 fantasy quarterback for the third straight season despite yet again coming off most boards after Rodgers.   

Worst Case: Sean Payton decided during his year away that he doesn’t want his quarterback throwing 670 times any more, following through on his pledge to install a more balanced attack. Brees is limited to “just” 4,400 yards and 32 scores.  

3. Cam Newton

Best Case: One of the most physically imposing athletes in North American sports finally shoots into the stratosphere, blowing the lid off fantasy football with a 4,200 yard passing, 800-yard rushing, 40-total touchdown campaign.  

Worst Case: Thanks to decline from Steve Smith and continued ineffectiveness at running back, the Panthers’ “streamlined” offense is no less of a quagmire than their all-shotgun attack. Newton is an occasional force, but can’t get himself higher than QB8.    

4. Tom Brady

Best Case: What turnover? Brady shakes off the loss of seemingly every one of his favorite weapons as he once again makes 4,500 yards and 35 touchdowns seem effortless.  

Worst Case: It wasn’t all talk. Brady is merely effective, not dominant, as the Patriots move to a more run-based attack. He fails to surpass 4,000 yards passing...just as he did in his three Super Bowl-winning seasons.

5. Peyton Manning

Best Case: After 14 seasons, Manning finally breaches the 5,000-yard barrier, making it look almost too easy as he posts a 45:10 TD:INT ratio en route to his fifth MVP award and second Super Bowl title.  

Worst Case: Wes Welker’s addition muddles the receiver corps instead of enhancing it, while Willis McGahee’s absence looms surprisingly large in the backfield. The ducks Manning tossed in last season’s Divisional Round loss prove prophetic as his arm strength appears diminished even on its 2012 levels. The Broncos waltz to another AFC West title, but it’s the beginning of the end for one of the game’s greatest players.  

6. Russell Wilson

Best Case: Wilson proves game-plan proof for opposing defensive coordinators. He doesn’t just build on his electrifying 2012 finish, he obliterates it, establishing himself as the new duel-threat king of a changing NFL. He’s the league’s No. 1 fantasy quarterback.  

Worst Case: An offseason of film study enables rivals to tame, if not solve, Seattle’s 5-foot-11 (on his tippy toes) Rubik’s cube. Wilson guides Seattle back to the playoffs, but the wheel is not reinvented. Overzealous fantasy owners lament using their third-round pick on this season’s QB10.

7. Matt Ryan

Best Case: Ryan’s slow but steady progress culminates in a Breesian 5,000-yard, 40-touchdown campaign. Fantasy owners feel ridiculous for making him just the sixth quarterback off the board.

Worst Case: 2012 was the peak for a quarterback whose arm-strength limitations slowly grow more apparent. Ryan remains a rock-solid QB1, but neither dazzles nor dominates. He doesn’t steal fantasy owners as many weeks as his stats would suggest.  

8. Matthew Stafford

Best Case: A little bit of luck and a lot more diligence about his footwork leads Stafford back into fantasy owners' hearts. The Lions boast the most explosive offense this side of the Big 12 as Stafford makes 5,000 yards look easy, and his $15.3 million annual salary look like a bargain.  

Worst Case: The haters were right. A freshly paid Stafford appears uninterested in improving his shoddy mechanics, tossing an NFC-high 20 interceptions even as he gets back above 30 touchdowns. Stafford slings it all over the field, but it doesn’t lead to much of anything.   

9. Colin Kaepernick

Best Case: No Michael Crabtree, no problem. Kaepernick is indestructible his first full year on the job, becoming the full realization of the long-gestating, but never quite achieved NFL dual-threat quarterback. His arm calls to mind Ben Roethlisberger, while his legs stir memories of vintage-era Michael Vick. Kaepernick runs away with No. 1 fantasy quarterback status as the 49ers seal the Super Bowl deal Jim Harbaugh’s third year on the job.   

Worst Case: Kaepernick’s cannon arm and Harley-like rushing ability aren’t enough to counter the loss of Crabtree and an offseason of adjustments from enemy defensive coordinators. Kap’s Cam-like slump doesn’t knock the 49ers out of Super Bowl contention, but has fantasy owners wishing they had made the “safe” pick with Matt Ryan instead.    

10. Robert Griffin III

Best Case: RGIII’s knee replaces Adrian Peterson’s as the knee of destiny. The chaos is more controlled, but the production isn’t. Griffin racks up 4,500 total yards and 35 touchdowns as the Redskins make their second consecutive division title look easier than it should be in a typically difficult NFC East.

Worst Case: Griffin isn’t so “ahead of schedule” after all, missing the first six games as he sits on the PUP list. When he returns, he’s more rigid and fearful in the pocket than the swashbuckler who lit up the NFL as a rookie. It’s a lost year for a special talent, causing some to wonder if things will ever be the same for the former Heisman Trophy winner.  

11. Tony Romo

Best Case: It took 33 years and 3,240 pass attempts, but Romo finally puts it all together, nearing his statistical highs of 2012 while committing a career-low 12 turnovers — zero of which come in the final two games of the season.  

Worst Case: New contract, same quarterback. Romo’s arm talent remains among the most prodigious in the league, but his decision-making continues to cost him at the most inopportune times. Nine of Romo’s 18 interceptions come during the Cowboys’ Bears/Packers/Redskins/Eagles December gauntlet. Dallas misses the playoffs for the fifth time in eight Romo years.   

12. Andrew Luck

Best Case: Luck ascends quicker than anyone thought possible, leading the AFC in passing yards and touchdowns as he reaches the Super Bowl six years quicker than Peyton Manning.  

Worst Case: Luck makes strides on his excellent rookie campaign, but they’re obscured by the Colts’ still inept offensive line. He’s a QB1 for fantasy purposes, but a maddening one, torpedoing as many weeks as he wins.  

13. Ben Roethlisberger

Best Case: Big Ben goes on a Big Mend, appearing in all 16 games for the first time since 2008. Along the way, he passes for 4,200 yards and 30 touchdowns for only the second time in his career. He turns the ball over just 12 times as the Steelers position themselves for another deep postseason run.   

Worst Case: Years of hits and near misses finally catch up with one of the game’s most contact-prone passers, as he appears in fewer than 12 games for the first time in his NFL career. When Roethlisberger does manage to take the field, he struggles without Mike Wallace taking the lid off opposing secondaries, posting a sub-90.0 QB rating for the first time since 2008.  

14. Eli Manning

Best Case: A healthy and happy Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz help Manning shake off his 2012 funk, though he doesn’t approach the outlier 4,933 yards he threw for in 2011. Manning’s 4,200 yards and 30:14 TD:INT ratio are enough to get the Giants back into the playoffs in the loaded NFC.  

Worst Case: After looking like he was playing through mono in 2012, Manning just starts looking old, proving once and for all that, though he can have elite games, he’s a Schaub-esque game-manager at heart.

15. Jay Cutler

Best Case: Send out the clowns. With a real offensive mind finally at the controls, Cutler becomes the living embodiment of “better late than never,” flirting with the career-high 4,526 yards he threw for his final year in Denver while surpassing 30 touchdowns for the first time in his career. He tosses “just” 14 interceptions.  

Worst Case: Maybe Cutler is who we thought he is, and there’s no offensive mind capable of reeling in his reckless, gun-slinging ways. He suffers his sixth career concussion when he’s crushed by Jared Allen in Week 13 after foolishly holding onto the ball for too long as he waits for Brandon Marshall to get open 20 yards down field. The Bears start thinking about a post-Cutler future.  

16. Michael Vick

Best Case: Chip Kelly does what Andy Reid, Jim Mora and Dan Reeves couldn’t: Unlock Vick’s full potential. Even as a 33 year old who’s lost a step or two, Vick is a revelation in Kelly’s spread-option attack, showing Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick how it’s done as he cruises to a top-five fantasy finish.  

Worst Case: Vick looks old, stubborn and turnover prone in training camp, giving Kelly no choice but to go with the lead-footed Nick Foles at quarterback. The Eagles save $4 million by cutting Vick loose before Week 1.

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Patrick Daugherty is a football and baseball writer for He can be found on Twitter .
Email :Patrick Daugherty

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