Adam Levitan

Draft Analysis

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ADP First Look: Overvalued

Monday, July 15, 2013


5. Wes Welker, WR, Broncos – ADP 41.6
The Patriots run an unbalanced offense that features the slot receiver heavily. That led to 112.0 catches per season for Welker during his six-year run of dominance in New England. Video-game numbers like that are just not going to happen in Denver.

The Broncos execute a more balanced run/pass ratio and will also highlight their dynamic outside receivers, Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker. Welker is now 32 and perhaps losing a touch of his quicks. He won’t be a real factor in the red zone. Even Welker himself has admitted that he expects his reception total to drop significantly. Look for something closer to 80 catches.

6. Daryl Richardson, RB, Rams – ADP: 85.3
The Rams have been adamant that they will fill Steven Jackson’s shoes with a true committee. They’ll let Richardson, Isaiah Pead and Zac Stacy battle in August and see what shakes out.

“You need multiple backs in this league,” offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer said. “We’re going to try to play to their strengths. With [Jackson] last year, it was a little different. It was harder to do the committee because every time you took him out, you knew you were missing his leadership and his toughness. This year I think we’ve got nice pieces to try and blend in and differently attack people.”

As our Evan Silva described in his second-year running backs series, Richardson is certainly explosive. He might even be capable of being a feature back despite a 5’10/192 frame. But for now, it looks like the coaches see him as an outside runner.

“Any time we can get Daryl the ball in space, it’s going to put added pressure on the other team,” coach Jeff Fisher said.

Pead somehow has an ADP of 123.0 and Stacy is at 127.8. Richardson is being drafted as the true lead back, sapping his relative value.

7. Mike Wallace, WR, Dolphins – ADP 59.3
Steelers offensive coordinator Todd Haley tried to push Wallace into his dink-and-dunk offense last year. It didn’t work. He ended up with just 64 catches for 836 yards in 15 games, setting a career-low in YPC (13.1) in the process.

Now Wallace has inked a $60 million contract and is going to a strict West coast scheme in Miami. He’ll be trying to prove he’s more than just a speed-burning deep threat while simultaneously dealing with a downgrade in quarterback play. It’s a lot of question marks for a player that just got paid and is going in the fifth round.

8. Reggie Bush, RB, Lions – ADP 20.0
This ADP report is for standard scoring, not point-per-reception (PPR). Therefore, it’s hard to understand why Bush would be a second-round pick, the 13th running back off the board.

The Lions led the league in pass attempts last season and project to be among the league leaders in that category again. The goal-line back will likely be Mikel Leshoure. Underrated Joique Bell is going to get some burn. And Bush is just two years removed from a deserved injury prone label.  Add it all up and we have a low-end RB2 in standard formats.



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Adam Levitan is in his sixth season covering football and basketball for Rotoworld. He won the Fantasy Sports Writers Association award for Best Series in 2011 and 2009, and ESPN's overall fantasy football title in 2000. Find him on Twitter.
Email :Adam Levitan



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