Chet Gresham

Targets and Touches

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Week 8 Target Watch: AFC

Thursday, October 24, 2013


Jacksonville Jaguars


Cecil Shorts: 15-12-10-1-13 (51), Justin Blackmon: dnp-dnp-9-20-9 (38), Ace Sanders: 3-8-1-3-dnp (15), Maurice Jones-Drew: 5-1-3-2-2 (13), Mike Brown: dnp-dnp-dnp-5-8 (13), Clay Harbor: 1-3-5-3-0 (12), Stephen Burton: 9-dnp-dnp-dnp-dnp (9), Justin Forsett: 0-2-0-3-1 (6), Jeremy Ebert: dnp-3-2-dnp-dnp (5), Will Ta'ufo'ou: 1-0-1-3-0 (5), Stephen Williams: 0-1-dnp-2-0 (3), Marcedes Lewis: dnp-0-dnp-dnp-3 (3), D.J. Williams: 1-dnp-1-0-0 (2), Allen Reisner: 1-1-0-dnp-dnp (2), Denard Robinson: 0-1-0-0-0 (1)

 

If healthy, Cecil Shorts and Justin Blackmon are the whole Jaguars offense. With their defense getting them behind early and often, the Jaguars go to the pass and they actually have two of the better receivers in the league with these two. And now they’ve added Mike Brown who has been injured. Brown had eight targets last week and caught five for 120 yards He has overtaken Ace Sanders as the #3 receiver. They also got Marcedes Lewis back finally and he should add another target for Chad Henne.

 

Red Zone Targets (Weeks 3-7):  Justin Blackmon: (8), Cecil Shorts: (7), Maurice Jones-Drew: (4), Mike Brown: (3), Jeremy Ebert: (2), Marcedes Lewis: (2), Ace Sanders: (2), Stephen Burton: (2), Clay Harbor: (1), Allen Reisner: (1), D.J. Williams: (1)

 

The Jaguars have rushed the ball 14 times inside the red zone this season and thrown it 42 times. I don’t think they have much faith in Maurice Jones-Drew.

 

 

Kansas City Chiefs


Jamaal Charles: 8-11-9-9-4 (41), Dwayne Bowe: 3-7-6-4-9 (29), Donnie Avery: 7-10-4-4-4 (29), Dexter McCluster: 4-5-3-5-5 (22), Sean McGrath: 4-5-6-3-2 (20), Anthony Sherman: 2-1-2-0-4 (9), Kevin Brock: 1-2-2-1-dnp (6), Chad Hall: 1-0-4-0-0 (5), Anthony Fasano: dnp-dnp-dnp-dnp-5 (5), A.J. Jenkins: 2-0-1-1-0 (4), Junior Hemingway: 1-0-1-1-0 (3), Knile Davis: 0-0-1-1-0 (2)

 

Dwayne Bowe saw his high in targets and yards last week with nine and 66. Those are pretty telling stats. But the more telling stat is that Jamaal Charles leads the team in targets. 

 

Anthony Fasano returned from injury this week and was the no doubt number one tight end with 65 snaps to Sean McGrath’s 28. He had five targets, with two of them in the red zone as he almost scored a touchdown. Alex Smith’s arm strength and propensity to not want to test corners on the sidelines makes Fasano a perfect receiver for him. Unfortunately Fasano is limited in ability and will need touchdowns to be fantasy relevant and those touchdowns are usually reserved for Charles.

 

Red Zone Targets (Weeks 3-7):  Jamaal Charles: (5), Dwayne Bowe: (4), Anthony Sherman: (3), Donnie Avery: (3), Sean McGrath: (2), A.J. Jenkins: (2), Dexter McCluster: (2), Anthony Fasano: (2), Chad Hall: (1)

 

This is JC Superstar’s domain.

 

 

Miami Dolphins

 

Mike Wallace: 5-7-16-BYE-10 (38), Brandon Gibson: 8-8-5-BYE-8 (29), Brian Hartline: 6-4-7-BYE-11 (28), Charles Clay: 6-6-6-BYE-3 (21), Lamar Miller: 3-3-0-BYE-3 (9), Rishard Matthews: 4-2-0-BYE-1 (7), Daniel Thomas: 1-1-2-BYE-1 (5), Marcus Thigpen: 0-2-1-BYE-0 (3), Dion Sims: 1-1-0-BYE-0 (2), Michael Egnew: 1-0-1-BYE-0 (2)

 

Do you remember in Week 5 when Lamar Miller saw 76% of the snaps to Daniel Thomas’ 19%? Yeah, that didn’t last. Last week Miller had 49% to Thomas’ 45%. The team doesn’t seem to trust either of them that much. On the season Miller has 65 touches for 279 yards (4.3 ypt) and two touchdowns while Thomas has 46 touches for 172 yards (3.7 ypt) and two touchdowns.

 

So far this season Mike Wallace has caught 27-of-54 targets for 357 yards and one touchdown compared to Brian Hartline who has caught 31-of-52 targets for 401 yards and two touchdowns. That’s not what you want from your “#1” receiver.

 

Red Zone Targets (Weeks 3-7):  Brandon Gibson: (6), Charles Clay: (5), Mike Wallace: (4), Brian Hartline: (3), Lamar Miller: (2)

 

Charles Clay has five red zone targets and one red zone rushing attempt and has caught each target and scored on three of those while also running in his one rushing attempt for a touchdown. That sirs and ma’am’s is efficiency.

 

Brandon Gibson was the main red zone target last week when he caught his first two touchdowns of the season.  He could catch on as a red zone target for Tannehill going forward, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.

 

 

New England Patriots


Julian Edelman: 7-9-7-11-7 (41), Aaron Dobson: 10-3-4-10-7 (34), Kenbrell Thompkins: 7-11-4-6-5 (33), Brandon Bolden: 6-1-8-3-3 (21), Rob Gronkowski: dnp-dnp-dnp-dnp-17 (17), Danny Amendola: dnp-dnp-9-4-dnp (13), Michael Hoomanawanui: 2-0-2-4-0 (8), Austin Collie: dnp-dnp-dnp-2-5 (7), Stevan Ridley: 1-2-dnp-1-2 (6), Josh Boyce: 1-3-0-dnp-dnp (4), James Develin: 0-1-0-0-0 (1), Matthew Mulligan: 0-1-0-0-0 (1), LeGarrette Blount: 0-0-0-1-0 (1)

 

The return of Rob Gronkowski was the story of this game for the Patriots and you could tell that Tom Brady was happy to have him back since he targeted him 17 times on his 39 routes. He may have gone a bit overboard as Gronk caught eight, less than half of his targets.

 

The running back situation remains unpredictable with Brandon Bolden seeing 49 snaps to Stevan Ridley’s 28 against the Jets. Bolden is the passing down/hurry up back and with the Patriots trailing he was in the game quite a bit, but he was also the lead back to start the game. Ridley did come in and play well, but it’s still a scary situation, especially with Shane Vereen on his way back.

 

Red Zone Targets (Weeks 3-7):  Kenbrell Thompkins: (7), Aaron Dobson: (4), Julian Edelman: (3), Zach Sudfeld: (1), Danny Amendola: (1), Stevan Ridley: (1)

 

Against the Jets last week the Patriots only ran six plays inside the red zone and all six were rushing plays. With 17 targets for Gronkowski you would think one of them would accidentally go his way once they passed the 20-yard line.

 

 

New York Jets


Jeremy Kerley: 5-5-6-7-10 (33), Stephen Hill: 6-1-2-8-5 (22), Jeff Cumberland: 3-1-4-5-7 (20), Bilal Powell: 3-5-2-3-2 (15), Santonio Holmes: 10-5-dnp-dnp-dnp (15), Clyde Gates: 1-3-1-7-dnp (12), Kellen Winslow Jr: 0-9-1-dnp-dnp (10), David Nelson: dnp-dnp-2-1-7 (10), Tommy Bohanon: 1-3-0-0-0 (4), Mike Goodson: dnp-dnp-2-1-dnp (3), Zach Sudfeld: 2-0-dnp-0-0 (2), Konrad Reuland: 0-0-0-2-0 (2), Chris Ivory: 0-dnp-0-0-2 (2), Ben Obomanu: 0-1-dnp-dnp-dnp (1), Alex Green: 0-1-0-0-0 (1)

 

On the other side of the ball it was the Jeremy Kerley and Chris Ivory show. Kerley led the team with eight receptions on 10 targets for 97 yards and a touchdown while Ivory ran a whopping 34 times for 104 yards. This game was won by defense and some well-timed big plays.

 

Bilal Powell only saw 24 snaps compared to Ivory’s 53, which was a huge deviation from the norm. It made little sense and still is perplexing, especially with Ivory’s paltry 3 yards per carry, but the fact that Ivory wasn’t dominating and still was given so many plays makes me think they will continue riding him until he gets hurt again.

 

Red Zone Targets (Weeks 3-7):  Jeff Cumberland: (4), David Nelson: (4), Jeremy Kerley: (4), Stephen Hill: (2), Bilal Powell: (1), Chris Ivory: (1)

 

David Nelson has been seeing more work of late and his big frame could lead him to be a good red zone target, but he’ll be competing with Jeff Cumberland, Kerley and the Jets propensity to run the ball.

 

 

Oakland Raiders

 

Denarius Moore: 11-6-8-10-BYE (35), Rod Streater: 4-3-3-7-BYE (17), Mychal Rivera: 3-6-3-3-BYE (15), Marcel Reece: 5-2-3-3-BYE (13), Rashad Jennings: 2-8-0-2-BYE (12), Brice Butler: 4-3-1-1-BYE (9), Jacoby Ford: 1-0-2-2-BYE (5), Jeron Mastrud: 0-2-0-2-BYE (4), Darren McFadden: 1-0-dnp-3-BYE (4), Jamize Olawale: 0-1-2-0-BYE (3), Jeremy Stewart: 0-1-1-0-BYE (2)

 

It’s pretty refreshing to have an Oakland receiver who you can count on (to a degree!). Over the last four weeks Denarius Moore ranks as the fifth best fantasy receiver in the league.  After him it gets way too dicey to even consider another receiver from Oakland. But if Moore can have a good game in Kansas City, well, he can have one anywhere.

 

Red Zone Targets (Weeks 3-7):  Marcel Reece: (4), Denarius Moore: (2), Mychal Rivera: (2), Rod Streater: (1)

 

 

Pittsburgh Steelers


Antonio Brown: 13-13-BYE-11-7 (44), Emmanuel Sanders: 8-8-BYE-6-2 (24), Heath Miller: 4-8-BYE-7-4 (23), Jerricho Cotchery: 4-6-BYE-0-4 (14), Le'Veon Bell: dnp-5-BYE-3-1 (9), Markus Wheaton: 1-5-BYE-dnp-dnp (6), Will Johnson: 1-0-BYE-3-1 (5), Felix Jones: 2-1-BYE-1-1 (5), David Johnson: 3-1-BYE-0-dnp (4), David Paulson: 2-0-BYE-0-1 (3), Jonathan Dwyer: 3-0-BYE-0-0 (3)

 

The Steelers slowed this one down and let defense and the running game do most of the work. Le'Veon Bell had his most rushing attempts in his short career with 19 and totaled 93 rushing yards against a strong Ravens’ run defense. It’s a very good sign for him once easier matchups come around.

 

Antonio Brown still led the team in receptions and yards, but it amazingly was his worst fantasy game of the year.

 

Red Zone Targets (Weeks 3-7):  Antonio Brown: (6), Jerricho Cotchery: (3), Emmanuel Sanders: (2), Heath Miller: (2), Le'Veon Bell: (2), Markus Wheaton: (1), Will Johnson: (1)

 

Brown is still lagging in touchdowns compared to his number of receptions, but they’ll come, especially if Bell can get the running game going to take some pressure off the passing game.

 

 

San Diego Chargers


Antonio Gates: 7-10-10-8-6 (41), Keenan Allen: 1-6-9-12-6 (34), Danny Woodhead: 8-7-9-5-4 (33), Vincent Brown: 3-9-9-4-2 (27), Eddie Royal: 2-3-8-0-4 (17), Ladarius Green: 2-0-1-1-3 (7), Ryan Mathews: 0-4-0-1-0 (5), Ronnie Brown: 0-0-3-0-0 (3), John Phillips: 0-1-0-0-1 (2), Le'Ron McClain: 1-0-0-1-0 (2)

 

Ryan Mathews showed up for the second straight game and topped the 100-yard mark and the 20 rushing attempt mark. The Chargers have been playing efficient and conservative football the last two weeks and it has been working for them. If they are able to continue that type of play we could see Mathews have more value than he has in the past. But as soon as they get down in a game they’ll go with Danny Woodhead for the most part. Both of their fantasy values will depend on the flow of the game and quality of the opponent.

 

Red Zone Targets (Weeks 3-7):  Danny Woodhead: (10), Antonio Gates: (6), Keenan Allen: (5), Vincent Brown: (3), Ladarius Green: (1), Ronnie Brown: (1), Le'Ron McClain: (1)

 

Danny Woodhead has a crazy 21 touches inside the red zone this season. He was the goal line back on the Chargers first touchdown against the Titans and then Mathews got a chance later in the game. As you can see, Mathews is barely an afterthought in the passing game.

 

 

Tennessee Titans


Kendall Wright: 6-9-8-8-12 (43), Nate Washington: 10-8-8-4-10 (40), Delanie Walker: 8-4-6-5-5 (28), Damian Williams: 2-7-2-5-3 (19), Chris Johnson: 2-2-5-4-4 (17), Kenny Britt: 5-dnp-6-1-2 (14), Justin Hunter: 2-1-3-1-2 (9), Jackie Battle: 0-0-2-0-1 (3), Darius Reynaud: 0-0-0-0-2 (2), Collin Mooney: 0-1-0-0-0 (1), Michael Preston: 1-0-dnp-0-dnp (1)

 

Kendall Wright has emerged as the go to guy in Tennessee while Kenny Britt takes a hiatus from having any ability. Britt saw fewer snaps than Damian Williams last week.

 

Chris Johnson saved his fantasy day once again with a long catch and run for a touchdown. If you look at just his ground game you’ll find some scary stats. Let’s look! For the season he has 115 rushing attempts for 366 yards and no touchdowns. That’s 3.2 yards per carry. Most of his fantasy points are coming from two long receptions and if he were being used more in the passing game I’d be more inclined to like him going forward, especially with a pretty easy schedule, but I’m still skeptical.

 

Red Zone Targets (Weeks 3-7):  Delanie Walker: (4), Kenny Britt: (3), Nate Washington: (3), Kendall Wright: (3), Justin Hunter: (2)

 

Delanie Walker leads the team with three touchdowns, which is somewhat telling of this offense. There is plenty of potential on the Titans and with a weak schedule in the second half of the season there will be some fantasy value.



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Chet Gresham writes Target Watch and The Morning After for Rotoworld.com and is the founder of The Fake Football. Chet can be found on Twitter .
Email :Chet Gresham



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