Adam Levitan

Waiver Wired

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Waiver Wire: Week 9

Tuesday, October 29, 2013


WIDE RECEIVERS
1. Darrius Heyward-Bey, Colts – Owned in 47 percent of Yahoo leagues
The bye week has come and gone for the Colts as they digested Reggie Wayne’s ACL tear. The only move they made at wideout was to promote Griff Whalen off the practice squad, which can be viewed as a vote of confidence in new No. 1 wideout Darrius Heyward-Bey. As mentioned last week, DHB was already playing 75.2 percent of the snaps, but was seeing just 4.8 targets per game. He’s going to see a bump in looks and has an emerging superstar in Andrew Luck at quarterback. Heyward-Bey isn’t going to do what Wayne did because he’s about 10 percent as good, but WR3 value is possible based on 7-9 targets per game.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues

2. Marvin Jones, Bengals – Owned in 25 percent of Yahoo leagues
We need to be careful with players whose usage/role hasn’t changed but the production has. Yes, Marvin Jones had eight catches for 122 yards and four touchdowns against the Jets. But he played on just 19-of-58 snaps. And over the last three weeks while he’s been on this tear, Jones has played on just 33.4 percent of the snaps. That’s not any different than the first five weeks, when he played on 43.4 percent of the snaps and totaled a paltry nine catches for 119 yards with one score. And now talented slot man Andrew Hawkins (ankle) is on the verge of returning and taking some targets. OK, but can’t a player’s role grow because he’s playing well? Of course. Jones is a clear red-zone beast that’s going to continue to see tons of single coverage while lining up opposite A.J. Green. It’s a good spot, but it’s not a volume spot. And that’s going to lead to inconsistency, making him a bye-week fill-in rather than every-week WR3.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues

3. Kendall Wright – Owned in 32 percent of Yahoo leagues
This one isn’t rocket science. Kendall Wright has at least five catches and 54 yards in six straight games as his team’s best receiver. Jake Locker (hip) should be 100 percent and is playing with improved accuracy. And the Titans have a dream schedule coming up, as noted above. Wright is flying too far under the radar.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team PPR leagues

4. Aaron Dobson – Owned in 23 percent of Yahoo leagues
We’ve seen a changing of the guard at the X receiver position in New England recently. Over the last three weeks, Aaron Dobson has played on 174-of-235 snaps (74.0 percent) and produced 13 catches on 22 targets. Kenbrell Thompkins played on just 14-of-68 snaps in Week 8 and has five catches for 61 yards over the last three weeks. With Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola back, it looks like the Patriots’ preferred three-wide set is Amendola, Julian Edelman and Dobson.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deeper 12-team leagues

5. Nate Burleson, Lions – Owned in 3 percent of Yahoo leagues
Nate Burleson’s pizza nightmare is almost over. He’s on track to return in Week 10, at which point he’ll quickly slide back in as the No. 2 wideout opposite Calvin Johnson. It’s a role Burleson averaged 6.3 catches for 79.6 yards before his car accident. Kris Durham can be tossed back to the scrap heap.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deeper 12-team PPR leagues

6. Lance Moore, Saints – Owned in 28 percent of Yahoo leagues
Coming off a Week 3 wrist injury, Lance Moore returned in Week 8 with three catches for 34 yards and one touchdown on four targets. His playing time was reduced as he was eased back in, resulting in 28-of-73 snaps. That number is going to rise, especially if Jimmy Graham (foot) continues to be severely limited. In 15 games last year, Moore totaled 65 catches for 1,041 yards with six touchdowns. He’s a WR4 and has a chance for more as we move along.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues

7. Drew Davis, Falcons – Owned in 2 percent of Yahoo leagues
In the first game following the Falcons’ Week 6 bye, Drew Davis played on 43-of-48 snaps but managed just one catch for 24 yards. In Week 8, he did far more with the Julio Jones role. Davis hauled in five passes for 77 yards with a touchdown as Matt Ryan slung it 61 times. There’s definitely an opportunity for sustained value here as the Falcons are going to be trailing a ton going forward and there’s no sign of Roddy White (hamstring, ankle).
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues

8. Kenny Stills, Saints – Owned in 11 percent of Yahoo leagues
Let’s be realistic about Stills’ role. He’s the No. 3 wideout on the Saints, playing the old Devery Henderson or Robert Meachem spot. It’s essentially a situational deep threat and that means wild ups and downs, as evidenced by Stills’ game log and target count. He’s averaging just 3.2 targets per game and has been held under 40 yards in four of seven contests. Stills is worth a WR4 play if you’re desperate for upside, but the floor will be very low.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues

Watch List: Mike Brown, Lavon Brazill, Tiquan Underwood, David Nelson, Rishard Matthews – The Jags are trying to use three-wide as their base and Brown is playing well. … Brazill is the new situational deep threat in Indy. … Underwood steps in for Mike Williams, who is done for the season. … Nelson is emerging as Geno Smith’s favorite target. … Matthews steps in for Brandon Gibson, who is also done for the year.

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Adam Levitan is in his sixth season covering football and basketball for Rotoworld. He won the Fantasy Sports Writers Association award for Best Series in 2011 and 2009, and ESPN's overall fantasy football title in 2000. Find him on Twitter.
Email :Adam Levitan



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