Raymond Summerlin

Fantasy Fallout

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Rookie Fantasy Value

Tuesday, May 6, 2014

As the old saying goes, success is always found where talent meets opportunity. Nowhere is that statement truer than in fantasy football. A player can have all the talent in the world, but the only way he becomes a fantasy success is if he is able to get on the field.


This is a very important point when considering rookies in redraft leagues. We can debate the most talented rookie running back or wide receiver until the cows come home, but the most successful fantasy rookie will always be the one given the best opportunity.


With that in mind, let’s take a look at the teams that offer the most potential for fantasy rookies in redraft formats.




1.  Cleveland Browns


This is tough because there could be as many as five rookie starting quarterbacks Week 1, but of the host of quarterback-needy teams, Cleveland offers the most early fantasy potential for one simple reason: Josh Gordon.


The most telling stat of how good Josh Gordon was last season is 223.5. That is how many fantasy points Brandon Weeden, Brian Hoyer and Jason Campbell combined to score last season in only 14 games with Josh Gordon. Extrapolated over a full season, that point total would have made the Cleveland quarterback the 13th best fantasy quarterback last season, and by the way, at least two of those quarterbacks are not even NFL-caliber players.


There are some concerns, though.


Brian Hoyer played well in his limited time last season, so there is a small chance Hoyer wins a camp battle and opens the season as the starter in Cleveland.


Also, OC Kyle Shanahan’s offenses have finished in the top 10 in pass attempts every season except the one when he coached rookie Robert Griffin III. Washington finished 30th in pass attempts that season. Did he change his offensive philosophy because of RGIII’s skill set or because he had a rookie quarterback under center? The answer to that question could determine how many passes Cleveland’s rookie actually gets to throw.


Even so, the upside offered by Josh Gordon is too alluring to pass up.


2. Houston Texans


The Texans are an obvious choice because of their depth chart. It is extremely unlikely the Texans’ plan is to begin the season with Ryan Fitzpatrick or Case Keenum as their starting quarterback. They are going to take a quarterback somewhere in the first two rounds, and they will want that player to be under center Week 1.


It does go farther than opportunity, though. The Texans have a solid receiving corps, the potential for a good running game, and a coach in Bill O’Brien that worked well with young quarterbacks while at Penn State. Look for O’Brien to establish the running game and put his young quarterback in a position to succeed.


That may not lead to fantasy stardom, but a Mike Glennon-like 12-to-13 fantasy points a week is not out of the question for whoever lands in Houston.


3. Jacksonville Jaguars


Jacksonville falls just below Houston on this list because of weapon and depth chart concerns, but they still offer an interesting landing spot for a rookie quarterback.


One potential obstacle for an incoming rookie will be the presence of Chad Henne. Henne has proven to be a serviceable if not spectacular NFL quarterback, and Jacksonville may decide to roll with Henne for a while rather than throwing a rookie into the fire.


There is also a lack of weapons around the Jacksonville quarterback. Toby Gerhart offers a steady but unspectacular option in the backfield, and the ongoing suspension of Justin Blackmon leaves the pass catching corps uninspiring at best.


If the rookie can beat out Chad Henne and Justin Blackmon returns, however, Jacksonville could prove to be a great landing spot for a rookie quarterback.


Sleeper – Minnesota Vikings


The Vikings may not offer an immediate starting upside, but they are one of the more interesting landing spots for the right rookie quarterback. They have a decent line, one of the best running backs in the game, and solid weapons outside. More importantly, Norv Turner is a great offensive coordinator that consistently gets the most out of his offensive talent. Matt Cassel will likely begin the season as the starter in Minnesota, but whichever rookie the Vikings select has a great shot to put up numbers if given the opportunity.



Running Back


1. Tennessee Titans


The best landing spot for a rookie running back is hands down the Tennessee Titans.


The depth chart in Tennessee is set up perfectly for a rookie back to come in and dominate the carries. The current lead back is the plodding Shonn Greene who averaged 3.8 yards per carry last season, and behind him is the even ploddi-er Jackie Battle. A good running back should find little resistance on his way to the top of that depth chart.


The real question is how may carries will that rookie get when he reaches the top of the chart? New coach Ken Whisenhunt oversaw a San Diego offense that ranked 6th in the league in rushing attempts in 2013. Before that, however, Whisenhunt’s Arizona teams were consistently at the bottom of the league in rushing attempts. Was San Diego’s commitment to the run a product of Mike McCoy or Whisenhunt changing his philosophy?


Hopefully it was a change in philosophy, and even if it was not, it is unlikely Whisenhunt puts too much in the hands of quarterback Jake Locker. That means 275 carries is a real possibility for whoever is the lead back in Tennessee, even if it is a rookie.


The Titans should be the first team to choose a running back in this draft, and whoever that player is should be the first rookie off the board in redraft leagues.


2. Baltimore Ravens


It might seem odd to see the Ravens this high on this list, but the reality is they have some serious problems at the top of the running back depth chart.
The first and most glaring issue is Ray Rice’s legal concerns. They likely will not land him any jail time, but he certainly has earned some type of suspension from the league. When that suspension will occur is unclear, but it is coming.


More importantly, Rice was a disaster last season and showed all the signs of a running back in decline. There is a chance the hip injury Rice suffered early last season was the reason for the decline, but with a ton of miles on Rice’s legs, it is more likely he is on the way down.


If Rice falters, Bernard Pierce would likely be the next man up, but he comes with issues too. Pierce is theoretically a good fit for the zone blocking scheme new OC Gary Kubiak will employ, but he is coming off January shoulder surgery that could limit him in camp. He also was not a very good back last season. Pierce only averaged 2.9 yards per carry and really did not look any better than Rice on tape in 2013.


So, when it is broken all the way down, Baltimore actually could be a decent landing spot for a running back that fits well into a zone scheme, and it would not be surprising if the Ravens target that player in round three or four.


3. Cleveland Browns


The Browns invested in former-Texans RB Ben Tate this offseason and obviously plan to give him the lion’s share of the carries in 2014. The real question is can Tate’s body handle the load? Considering Tate has only played 40 of a possible 64 games in his career, the safe bet is no.


If Tate cannot escape injury next season, the table is set for a rookie back to be very successful in Cleveland. The combination of Dion Lewis, Fozzy Whittaker and Edwin Baker does not engender confidence, and there is little chance any of those backs would be able to hold off a talented rookie in camp battle for number two running back duties.


Whichever back Cleveland selects will almost certainly win the number two duties out of camp and will almost certainly end up starting for an injured Tate at some point in the season. That makes Cleveland a great landing spot for a rookie back.


Sleepers – Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears


The Minnesota Vikings and the Chicago Bears carry the same value as a sleeper landing spot. Both have premier lead backs that will assuredly carry the load when healthy, but both Matt Forte and Adrian Peterson have struggled with health at points in their career. With basically no one behind Peterson in Minnesota or Forte in Chicago, each represents a decent sleeper landing spot for a rookie running back.

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Raymond Summerlin is a football writer for Rotoworld.com. He can be found on Twitter at @RMSummerlin.
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