Adam Levitan

Draft Analysis

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ADP First Look: Overvalued

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

We can’t underestimate how important Average Draft Position (ADP) is when preparing for the greatest day on the fantasy calendar. It’s the hand that guides us through the draft, forcing us to reach in some instances and shy away in others.

With training camp finally here, it’s time to start examining what our opponents think of players. You can find out what we think of them in the Draft Guide, available now. The ADPs cited in this column from Yahoo, MyFantasyLeague (MFL) and Fantasy Football Calculator.

Here are eight players’ ADPs to track because they’re overvalued right now. For my take on undervalued players, bang it here.

1. Nick Foles, QB, Eagles
Yahoo ADP: 70.7
MFL ADP: 55.8
Calculator ADP: 66.2

It’s virtually a given that Peyton Manning is going to regress off his remarkable 2013 season that saw him throw 55 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. So why aren’t more people talking about a Nick Foles regression off his absurd 27 touchdown, two interception campaign? This is a former third-round pick who has 16 career starts, arm strength/mobility limitations and plays in a run-first Chip Kelly offense that defensive coordinators will finally have a full offseason to scheme against. Foles also lost speed demon DeSean Jackson, a player that allowed Riley Cooper to overperform severely and opened up the entire offense. I’m fine with Foles as my starter, but his current ADP is far too high. I prefer Robert Griffin III (69.6 ADP on MFL), Matt Ryan (70.7), Tony Romo (100.0) and Jay Cutler (108.0).

2. Percy Harvin, WR, Seahawks
Yahoo ADP: 44.5
MFL ADP: 43.5
Calculator ADP: 43.8

I can understand why owners are taking Harvin in the fourth round. He has MVP-caliber natural ability, having established himself as one of the game’s most dangerous players with the ball in his hands while with the Vikings. Harvin also says he’s as healthy as he’s been since high school, and Golden Tate is gone. However, the problems here are two-fold. First, Harvin’s rugged, physical style of play leads to injuries at 5’11/184. He’s participated in just three of his teams’ last 25 games, and often had his snap count coddled in Minnesota. The second issue is usage. Mike Clay projected the Seahawks as the third-most run-heavy team in the league, and their pass game is of the conservative, “spread the wealth” variety. During Russell Wilson’s two years as a starter, no one has topped 64 catches, 898 receiving yards or seven receiving touchdowns. Harvin will be the kickoff returner as well, putting his health at risk while not getting us any points. There’s far too much risk here for a capped number of touches.  

3. Reggie Bush, RB, Lions
Yahoo ADP: 45.9
MFL ADP: 50.2
Calculator ADP: 32.7

The Lions could have let Joique Bell play out the season on a one-year, $2.1 million restricted free agent tender. Instead, they went out of their way to give him a new three-year, $9.3 million deal. So we know they’re going to use Bell’s grossly underrated all-around talents plenty, especially with Saints product Joe Lombardi now at the controls. Here are the running back touches in New Orleans: 2013 – Pierre Thomas 224, Darren Sproles 124, Mark Ingram 85. 2012 – Ingram 162, Thomas 144, Sproles 123. 2011 – Sproles 173, Thomas 160, Ingram 133. This rotational approach at running back is far from ideal for fantasy purposes, and the Lions’ upgrade in weaponry (Golden Tate, Eric Ebron) will prevent them from force feeding Bush in the passing game. Theo Riddick is also gaining steam as a potential Sprolesian asset. Don’t expect Bush to come close to last year’s 277 touches, 1,512 total yards and top-12 fantasy finish.  

4. Sammy Watkins, WR, Bills
Yahoo ADP: 110.4
MFL ADP: 50.8
Calculator ADP: 83.0

Watkins’ MFL ADP is laughable. I wouldn’t take him at the Calculator ADP, and I might even pass at the Yahoo cost as well. It’s simply too much to pay for a rookie wideout in a run-heavy scheme with major question marks at quarterback. Over the last 20 years, just eight rookie wide receivers have posted 1,000 yards. That’s as strong of a trend as we can find, and it’s because the position is so hard to learn right off the bat. Expect the Bills to run with C.J. Spiller, run with Fred Jackson, run with Bryce Brown and then use Watkins and Woods on quick-hitters to hide E.J. Manuel’s limitations. It’s not a recipe for fantasy success.

Editor's Note:
For tons of fantasy NFL nuggets throughout training camp, follow Adam Levitan and Rotoworld Football on Twitter. And don't forget to buy our Draft Guide, which is packed with rankings, projections, mock drafts, columns and tons more.

Keep reading to Page 2 for more overvalued players and some honorable mentions.

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Adam Levitan is in his sixth season covering football and basketball for Rotoworld. He won the Fantasy Sports Writers Association award for Best Series in 2011 and 2009, and ESPN's overall fantasy football title in 2000. Find him on Twitter.
Email :Adam Levitan

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