Silva's Latest Top 150Wednesday, July 30, 2014
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Because one of the goals of these Top 150s is to essentially map out a fantasy draft with value and opponent drafting tendencies (ADP) in mind, I've begun making a few tweaks. I dropped Jimmy Graham a few spots because I think the arrow is pointing up on Rob Gronkowski's health, while Julius Thomas and Jordan Cameron both provide potentially elite scoring potential at cheaper draft costs. The tight end position is looking stronger at the top, but remains extremely top heavy with a huge drop off behind those top four. I still firmly believe Graham is worth a middle to late first-round pick as the premier difference maker in head-to-head fantasy games.
Whether you get Graham or not, I think securing a top-four tight end provides owners with a significant week-to-week edge. I recommend an aggressive approach at this position.
I also bumped down a six-pack of quarterbacks spanning from Jay Cutler to Robert Griffin III, placing them toward the end of round seven. The fantasy football community is getting smarter, and is beginning to wait on quarterbacks more and more in drafts. I think fantasy prognosticators should react accordingly. I also believe the seventh and eighth rounds are where to start if you're willing to invest draft capital on quarterbacks in that tightly-bunched tier.
I'll limit player writeups in these Top 150s to one-liners going forward. For more comprehensive player takes, read my Top 1-100 and Top 101-200, and consult the 2014 Rotoworld Draft Guide, which is chock full of league-winning information.
1. LeSean McCoy -- Clear feature back on NFL's best rushing team.
2. Jamaal Charles -- No offense depends more on its RB than Chiefs'.
3. Adrian Peterson -- 29 now, but catches will rise under Norv Turner.
4. Matt Forte -- 29 in December, but all-purpose bellcow in great O.
5. Eddie Lacy -- I think Lacy has a chance to score 20 touchdowns.
6. Calvin Johnson -- Top 3 in receiver scoring three straight seasons.
7. Dez Bryant -- Will benefit from pass-happy OC and terrible DEF.
8. Demaryius Thomas -- He's the best receiver Peyton has ever had.
9. Jimmy Graham -- Cream of the crop at fantasy's weakest position.
10. Julio Jones -- Huge ceiling but concerning floor due to foot woes.
11. DeMarco Murray -- Could catch 70+ passes in Linehan's offense.
12. A.J. Green -- Production has risen in each of his 3 NFL seasons.
13. Rob Gronkowski -- Risk is obvious. Ceiling higher than Graham's.
14. Jordy Nelson -- 94/1,559/12 pace last year with Rodgers healthy.
15. Montee Ball -- Likely to see more carries than Moreno last year.
16. Marshawn Lynch -- Concerning age, workload, talented backup(s).
17. Le'Veon Bell -- Was Top-10 RB in points per game as 21-year-old.
18. Julius Thomas -- Can improve on 2013 breakout with Decker gone.
19. Brandon Marshall -- Top-11 WR in each of his 4 years with Cutler.
20. Keenan Allen -- Posted 76-1,179-10 over last 15 games at age 21.
21. Alshon Jeffery -- Lots of room for growth on last year's seven TDs.
22. Randall Cobb -- Highest-volume piece of Aaron Rodgers' arsenal.
23. Andre Johnson -- Major value pick at mid/late fourth-round ADP.
24. Zac Stacy -- I don't see rookie Tre Mason as serious 2014 threat.
25. Antonio Brown -- Remains a strong bet for 100-plus receptions.
26. Arian Foster -- Increasingly worried about re-injury; Already hurt.
27. Doug Martin -- Concerns about guard play, Tedford RBBC history.
28. Larry Fitzgerald -- High-volume focus of Bruce Arians' pass game.
29. Aaron Rodgers -- I think Green Bay's offense is going to explode.
30. Drew Brees -- 2nd/1st/1st/3rd/2nd/1st in QB points last six years.
31. Peyton Manning -- Far tougher schedule, older, and lost Decker.
32. Toby Gerhart -- Could lead NFL in carries if Jags are competitive.
33. Roddy White -- Plenty left. I think he returns low-end WR1 value.
34. Giovani Bernard -- Will lose work to Jeremy Hill; upgrade in PPR.
35. C.J. Spiller -- Expect explosive rebound with ankle health restored.
36. Jordan Cameron -- Went 6-66-3/10-91-1 in Hoyer's two 2013 starts.
37. Alfred Morris -- Zero in pass game, but plenty of touchdown upside.
38. Torrey Smith -- Expect career highs across the board with Kubiak.
39. Victor Cruz -- Will play heavily-targeted Randall Cobb role in new O.
40. Michael Crabtree -- 98-1,408-13 stat pace in Kap's ten 2012 starts.
41. Joique Bell -- I think he'll lead Detroit backfield in carries and TDs.
42. Reggie Bush -- Bump Reggie ahead of Joique Bell in PPR drafts.
43. Vincent Jackson -- Expect sizable regression off last year's targets.
44. Pierre Garcon -- DJax & healthy Jordan Reed will steal opportunities.
45. Andre Ellington -- Boom-or-bust RB2. I'll pass at his 3rd-round ADP.
46. Shane Vereen -- 1,218-yard, 11-TD pace in ten 2013 appearances.
47. Marques Colston -- Undervalued. 98/1,213/8 pace last ten games.
48. Ryan Mathews -- Crowded backfield, but lead RB on run-first team.
49. Mike Wallace -- Playing 2013 D-Jax role in new Philly-like offense.
50. Rueben Randle -- My favorite 2014 breakout WR. 10-TD candidate.
51. Michael Floyd -- Fast-ascending 24-year-old with legit WR1 ceiling.
52. DeSean Jackson -- Will play A.J. Green 'Z' role under Jay Gruden.
53. Stevan Ridley -- Lock for double-digit TDs if simply doesn't fumble.
54. Frank Gore -- Descending, but still every-down back with great OL.
55. Bishop Sankey -- RBBC concerns with McCluster & Shonn Greene.
56. Jeremy Maclin -- Eagles primary replacement for DeSean Jackson.
57. Wes Welker -- Maybe one more concussion away from retirement.
58. Matthew Stafford -- Efficiency could soar with new O & weapons.
59. Jordan Reed -- Major injury flags, but 80-888-6 pace as rookie TE.
60. Cam Newton -- I actually think his WRs are better than last year's.
61. Rashad Jennings -- 29-year-old RB with O-Line & RBBC concerns.
62. Lamar Miller -- Likely lead runner under run-first new OC Lazor.
63. Percy Harvin -- Overvalued in league's most WR-unfriendly offense.
64. Trent Richardson -- Classic boom-or-bust pick. Just turned 23yo.
65. Cordarrelle Patterson -- Better return man than WR at this stage.
66. Kendall Wright -- Volume could take a hit in new Titans offense.
67. Jeremy Hill -- Legit threat to lead Bengals in carries & rush TDs.
68. Golden Tate -- Should be Stafford's No. 2 option behind Calvin.
69. Ben Tate -- Favorite to be Browns lead RB, but major injury risk.
70. Eric Decker -- Great value pick if Geno Smith takes step forward.
71. Tom Brady -- QB4 overall pace with Gronk in lineup last season.
72. Jason Witten -- 32 now, but durable 80-plus reception candidate.
73. Dennis Pitta -- High-volume potential with Kubiak. Better in PPR.
74. Terrance West -- I prefer West to Ben Tate based on current ADPs.
75. Vernon Davis -- Expect regression in every statistic this season.
76. Bernard Pierce -- Favorite to open season as Kubiak's lead back.
77. Terrance Williams -- Will be Romo's No. 3 option behind Dez/Witten.
78. Emmanuel Sanders -- Dicey WR3. Better real-life than FF player.
79. Jay Cutler -- Most upside in his QB tier. Surrounded by TD scorers.
80. Andrew Luck -- Huge breakout potential if Colts open up offense.
81. Nick Foles -- Every-week QB1 but 2013 efficiency hard to repeat.
82. Tony Romo -- Cowboys roster is built to generate fantasy points.
83. Matt Ryan -- Pass-first O, healthy WRs, bad DEF, plays indoors.
84. Robert Griffin III -- Wild card in new offense, but plenty of upside.
85. Reggie Wayne -- Knee is all systems go. Best bet of Indy WRs.
86. Justin Hunter -- Mike Clay says he's this year's Alshon Jeffery.
87. Ray Rice -- Caught major break with only two-game suspension.
88. Kyle Rudolph -- Blowup candidate with TE-friendly Norv Turner.
89. T.Y. Hilton -- Already inconsistent & targets likely to plummet.
90. Fred Jackson -- 33 1/2 now but should remain steady flex play.
91. DeAndre Hopkins -- Like him as WR3 in 2014, WR1/2 by 2015.
92. Brandin Cooks -- Candidate for 90 touches (rush/rec) as rookie.
93. Dwayne Bowe -- Alex Smith doesn't throw outside the numbers.
94. Sammy Watkins -- Shaky QB play on NFL's run-heaviest team.
95. Greg Olsen -- Not much room to improve on 2013's TE8 finish.
96. Pierre Thomas -- Bump up Thomas a full round in PPR drafts.