Silva's Late-Camp Top 150Friday, August 22, 2014
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These rankings are based on standard scoring leagues, albeit with frequent references to points-per-reception formats (PPR). This is my attempt to essentially map out a fantasy draft, and provide readers with an idea of where I value players. Average Draft Position (ADP), position scarcity, upside, and projected role are all strongly considered in the rankings. I do bump up players I want readers to draft -- sometimes aggressively -- because I think they should pursue them. I bump down players I do not want readers to draft because I believe there is evidence suggesting they're best left avoided.
As is always the case in these Top 150s, I devalue quarterbacks because it is a devalued position in standard, one-quarterback leagues. I think securing a top-four tight end provides owners with a significant week-to-week edge. I recommend an aggressive approach at this position.
For comprehensive player writeups and outlooks, consult the 2014 Rotoworld Draft Guide, which is absolutely jam-packed with league-winning information.
1. LeSean McCoy -- Versatile superstar talent in the league's top rushing offense.
2. Jamaal Charles -- Only NFL RB who doubles as team's top pass-game option.
3. Adrian Peterson -- 29 1/2 at start of season but dominant workhorse with + OL.
4. Matt Forte -- Ideal RB for pass-happy Trestman. Bump to No. 3 in PPR drafts.
5. Eddie Lacy -- Arguably most TD upside among RBs. Must handcuff w/ Starks.
6. Demaryius Thomas -- Still room for growth with Eric Decker's 136 targets gone.
7. Calvin Johnson -- I'd put Demaryius, Calvin, and Dez above Lacy in PPR drafts.
8. Dez Bryant -- Dallas will be a shootout team, relentlessly feeding Dez the rock.
9. Jimmy Graham -- Cream of the crop at fantasy's weakest/top-heaviest position.
10. Julio Jones -- Foot woes create risk, but monster ceiling post-Tony Gonzalez.
11. DeMarco Murray -- On defense-less Dallas, No. 1 overall RB upside in PPR.
12. A.J. Green -- "Safe" WR1 at the turn. Marvin Jones' injury helps his outlook.
13. Rob Gronkowski -- Injury risk is as obvious as Gronk's week-winning upside.
14. Jordy Nelson -- Sleeper for top overall fantasy WR. Aaron Rodgers' 1A target.
15. Montee Ball -- Better runner than Moreno, last year's No. 5 overall fantasy RB.
16. Marshawn Lynch -- Pay raise suggests Seahawks won't lessen his role at all.
17. Brandon Marshall -- Slightly overdrafted at 2.03 ADP. Will lose TDs to Jeffery.
18. Julius Thomas -- Peyton's No. 2 option. Expect spikes in receptions & yards.
19. Keenan Allen -- Will dominate Philip Rivers' targets. Sleeper for 100 catches.
20. Alshon Jeffery -- "Only" scored 7 TDs last year. Will reach double-digits in '14.
21. Zac Stacy -- Locked in bellcow on run-first team with improved offensive line.
22. Roddy White -- Hilariously underrated at 4th-rd ADP. Will return WR1 value.
23. Doug Martin -- Charles Sims injury helps. Will be Lovie's workhorse runner.
24. Randall Cobb -- Volume dependent, but will get it. Packers lack of TE helps.
25. Le'Veon Bell -- Despite Blount/DUI worries, safe bet for 17-22 touches/game.
26. Antonio Brown -- Likely to lose TDs to healthy Heath Miller. Better PPR pick.
27. Michael Floyd -- I was too low on him before. Cards will throw a ton this year.
28. Andre Johnson -- Last season's No. 12 fantasy WR has late-4th-round ADP.
29. Jordan Cameron -- Great athlete. Will be focal point of Browns passing game.
30. Aaron Rodgers -- I think Packers could be this year's version of '13 Broncos.
31. Drew Brees -- Saints O loaded. Most consistent fantasy QB of last decade.
32. Peyton Manning -- Peyton is this year's headliner on my Shy-Away column.
33. Toby Gerhart -- Underrated athlete. Will be one of NFL's few true 3-down RBs.
34. Giovani Bernard -- Has ADP of No. 16 overall. Like Gio, but hate his draft slot.
35. Alfred Morris -- Pass-game limitations can make Alf week-to-week headache.
36. Arian Foster -- May pay off but I'm letting my opponent take that leap of faith.
37. Torrey Smith -- Will be target monster in Andre Johnson/Pierre Garcon role.
38. Michael Crabtree -- Contract-year blowup candidate with worse 49ers defense.
39. Vincent Jackson -- Josh McCown will love throwing 50:50 balls to Jackson.
40. Larry Fitzgerald -- Heavily targeted in Arians' Hines Ward/Reggie Wayne role.
41. Victor Cruz -- Slot WR is great fit for Giants new quick-hitting pass offense.
42. Joique Bell -- Likely to lead Lions in carries & rush TDs. Catches passes, too.
43. Andre Ellington -- Discussed why I'm drafting around Ellington in this column.
44. Reggie Bush -- Will play Sprolesian role under ex-Saints assistant Lombardi.
45. C.J. Spiller -- Will remain very inconsistent without RZ or passing-down work.
46. Bishop Sankey -- RBBC concerns, but Titans best RB talent behind plus OL.
47. Shane Vereen -- More than a PPR stud. 11-TD pace when healthy last year.
48. Ryan Mathews -- Lead back on run-first team. Solid RB2 in both PPR & non.
49. Mike Wallace -- Will get force fed targets as ex-Philly assistant Lazor's D-Jax.
50. Marques Colston -- Steal at late-7th-rd ADP. 98/1,213/8 pace last ten games.
51. Frank Gore -- If Niners pass more, he'll play more. Best pass-pro RB in NFL.
52. Ben Tate -- Lots of upside as run-heavy Browns clear-cut No. 1 running back.
53. Rueben Randle -- Just turned 23. Easy path to targets. 9 TDs/60 career grabs.
54. Lamar Miller -- New OC Lazor is committed to run. Has clear lead on Moreno.
55. DeSean Jackson -- In new O, should overtake Garcon as Gruden's No. 1 WR.
56. Pierre Garcon -- Avoid him at early-4th-round ADP. Could lose 50-75 targets.
57. Wes Welker -- 33yo, two concussions last season. I'd let someone else draft.
58. Stevan Ridley -- ADP crashing into 7th rd. Will score TDs if he doesn't fumble.
59. Matthew Stafford -- Sleeper for No. 1 overall fantasy QB w/ improved weapons.
60. Cam Newton -- Top-5 fantasy QB every year of career. Steal at late-7th ADP.
61. Cordarrelle Patterson -- All-purpose dynamo w/ suspect wide receiver skills.
62. Jordan Reed -- Exciting talent has four known concussions in college & pros.
63. Rashad Jennings -- Avoid in first 5 rounds. Not best runner on his own team.
64. Percy Harvin -- Will play complementary role in NFL's most WR-unfriendly O.
65. Golden Tate -- Should open year as Stafford's clear No. 2 option behind Mega.
66. Eric Decker -- Late-8th-rd ADP. Steal if Geno Smith just becomes mediocre.
67. Reggie Wayne -- Still favorite to lead Colts in catches/rec yards. Solid WR3.
68. Jason Witten -- Will be No. 2 option behind Dez in weekly shootout offense.
69. Tom Brady -- Can regain elite QB1 status if Gronkowski plays 13-14 games.
70. Fred Jackson -- Underrated ev-week RB2/flex. Bills red-zone/3rd-down back.
71. Bernard Pierce -- 17-92-1 in preseason. 5.41 YPC. Could explode w/ Kubiak.
72. Jeremy Maclin -- Hasn't been able to stay healthy in camp. Still WR2 upside.
73. Steven Jackson -- Upbeat reports on SJax's health. Attractive RB3 at this point.
74. Jeremy Hill -- Get Hill on your roster, but be savvy. He has a 10th-round ADP.
75. Andre Williams -- Playing old Brandon Jacobs role in 1-2 punch with Jennings.
76. Terrance Williams -- Likely roller coaster behind Dez/Witten/Murray for targets.
77. Emmanuel Sanders -- High % Sanders disappoints. A Shy-Away player for me.
78. Dennis Pitta -- Gary Kubiak's new Owen Daniels. I prefer Pitta in PPR leagues.
79. Jay Cutler -- Deep sleeper for NFL MVP. His WRs will gobble up touchdowns.
80. Andrew Luck -- Could dominate if Colts commit to aggressive passing attack.
81. Tony Romo -- Looks 100% after back surgery. May lead NFL in pass attempts.
82. Matt Ryan -- In similar situation to Romo with fewer weapons. Will throw a ton.
83. Nick Foles -- Plays in run-based offense with efficiency that can only regress.
84. Kyle Rudolph -- Younger than Travis Kelce. Norv will funnel O through Rudolph.
85. Zach Ertz -- Lots of mouths to feed, but favorite to lead Eagles in TD catches.
86. Kendall Wright -- Not a TD scorer. Volume dependent & in new O. Dicey WR3.
87. Robert Griffin III -- Has looked like an undisciplined lock for injury in preseason.
88. T.Y. Hilton -- Frustrating when heavily targeted, and now will lose lots of targets.
89. Ray Rice -- Bernard Pierce has shot to run with job during Rice's 2-game ban.
90. Kelvin Benjamin -- Has emerged as Cam's No. 1 option. Double-digit TD ceiling.
91. Maurice Jones-Drew -- Locked in as lead RB on Raiders team that needs to run.
92. Brandin Cooks -- Unlikely to pay off at skyrocketing ADP. Now going 6th round.
93. Justin Hunter -- Consistency may be issue, but will have week-winning games.
94. Vernon Davis -- An obvious guy to avoid. My No. 2 player on the Shy-Away 40.
95. Mark Ingram -- Favorite for carries and rushing TDs in New Orleans' backfield.
96. Dwayne Bowe -- Looks smooth & lighter in August. I'd take Bowe as my WR4.