Chet Gresham

Offseason Low Down

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OC History: AFC South

Sunday, August 24, 2014


For this set of articles I’ll be looking at NFL teams, their offensive coordinators and how their coordinating has or might impact their team’s offense and in turn our fantasy expectations. I’ll be using the offensive coordinator info compiled by Mr. Jeff Brubach, which tries to look at the last three seasons of a coordinator’s offensive output.

 

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Indianapolis Colts

 

AFCS1

 

Offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton will start his second season with the Colts after helping them to an 11-5 record and a division title. Of course for fantasy players those two facts are pretty much useless. We want to see fantasy points and plenty of them and Hamilton was not many fantasy players’ favorite OC last season.

 

With Andrew Luck at the helm we watched as the Colts ranked 23rd in pass attempts and 20th in passing yards. But somehow Mr. Luck ended up as the fourth best fantasy quarterback in the league while tying Alex Smith with just 23 passing touchdowns, ranking 15th in the league. So how did he do it you ask? Yes, it was with his legs, with which he gained 377 yards and scored four touchdowns.  Just those four extra touchdowns and yards put him right up there toward the top. Much like Aaron Rodgers, he has the capability of running, but only uses it when he has to. That makes it hard to predict what he’ll do on the ground, but the fact that he can and has, is helpful to his fantasy outlook.

 

The Colts actually threw the ball 59% of the time last season, which put them in the middle of the pack, but they slowed the game down enough to only rank 23rd in attempts. They have one of the best young QB talents in the game and it seems impossible that they wouldn’t end up passing more with him this season.

 

One reason they may pass more is the fact that their running backs have not been overly productive.  Last season they ranked 15th in total running attempts, 17th in yards, 19th in yards per attempt and 17th in touchdowns.  And those numbers were largely due to Donald Brown who had six rushing touchdowns and averaged 5.3 yards per carry. But of course he is now the third running back in San Diego. This season doesn’t promise much with Trent Richardson averaging under 3 yards per carry in preseason and nobody behind him really available to step up and lead them on the ground. Ahmad Bradshaw will need to reverse time and injuries and Richardson will need to turn into a new player.

 

So it seems as if they will throw it at least a bit more this season and Coach Pagano even admitted to that not long ago. That likelihood gives this passing game a bit more upside in theory and they also get Reggie Wayne and Dwayne Allen back from injury and T.Y. Hilton comes into his third season looking to become more consistent.

 

Last season Hilton was not quite up to the task of #1 receiver even though he did surpass 80 receptions and 1,000 yards. His inconsistency was tough on fantasy players and the Colts since they didn’t really have another receiver to count on. Hamilton was able to get away with it by slowing the game down and letting Luck do his thing when it came down to it, but this year a healthy receiving group could really open up this offense if Pep will let Luck be Luck.

 

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Houston Texans

 

AFCS2

 

The Texans quickly went from Super Bowl contenders to having the #1 pick in the 2014 NFL Draft. It was a perfect storm of injuries and Matt Schaub going on a pick-six spree of monumental failure. Gary Kubiak’s run-based offense fell off the tracks when Arian Foster was done after seven games and Matt Schaub wasn’t able to put the team on his shoulders. So in comes ex-Patriots’ offensive coordinator and Penn State head coach Bill O’Brien, who will serve as head coach and offensive coordinator this season.

 

A Bill Belichick disciple, O’Brien will be open to what works for his team and play each game based on matchups. Of course with the Patriots in 2011, his only season as offensive coordinator, the Patriots were top-5 in passing categories and had the third most rushing touchdowns. But also of course, he had Tom Brady as his quarterback and now he has Ryan Fitzpatrick. While with Penn State he was much more run-oriented due to his personnel, throwing the ball just 45% of the time last season. So he should be adaptable, but he’ll need to figure out a way to score with the personnel he has this year.

 

With Fitzpatrick at the helm there’s a good chance they will want to lean on Arian Foster, but leaning on Foster has already caused problems for Foster’s body in the past. If we could count on 300+ touches for Foster we could also count on this offense moving the ball. Behind Foster are some okay, but in no way team-carrying running backs.

 

Andre Johnson remains the best bet in the passing game and will be Ryan Fitzpatrick’s greatest asset this season.  Johnson saw 180 targets last season and easily could see a similar number as they look to him to keep the offense moving, especially if Foster misses time again this season. DeAndre Hopkins has all the talent in the world, but it’s extremely hard to project this offense with Foster as a high injury risk and Fitzpatrick as one of the most inconsistent quarterbacks in the league.  Hopkins would need the Texans to trade for Dan Marino in his prime for Hopkins to see consistent work.

 

The Texans do have a nice stable of tight ends with Garrett Graham, Ryan Griffin and C.J. Fiedorowicz.  And when you look at O’Brien’s 2011 Patriots’ team, we see Rob Gronkowski going for 90 receptions, 1300+ yards and 18 touchdowns. Of course there isn’t a Gronk in this group, but O’Brien knows how to use his tight ends. Aaron Hernandez also had a big 2011 (sans illegal activities). Of the three tight ends above, Fiedorowicz has the athleticism to take on a Gronkowski roll if everything comes together, but there’s also a good chance these three end up hurting each other’s numbers and causing fantasy headaches week to week.

 


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Chet Gresham writes Target Watch and The Morning After for Rotoworld.com and is the founder of The Fake Football. Chet can be found on Twitter .
Email :Chet Gresham



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