Evan Silva

Draft Analysis

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Live Blog: 12-Team PPR Draft

Friday, August 4, 2017


The fourth-annual APEX Industry Draft began on Friday afternoon. This is a 12-team PPR league where we start one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, one flex (RB/WR/TE), one defense, and one kicker. Here's a link to the official scoring of APEX fantasy leagues. With an ability to start four wide receivers and PPR scoring, the league format is highly conducive to a Zero RB approach, which many past owners in this league have taken and more will inevitably take this year.

I thought Rotoworld readers might enjoy it if I used this page to live blog the draft. I'll post each pick and offer up some commentary on the first ten rounds of this eighteen-round draft. Here's a link to the full draft page.

First Round

1.01. Chris Harris – Le’Veon Bell
1.02. Rich Hribar – David Johnson
1.03. Graham Barfield – Antonio Brown
1.04. Mike Clay – Ezekiel Elliott
1.05. JJ Zachariason – Julio Jones
1.06. Matt Kelley – Melvin Gordon
1.07. Mike Braude – Odell Beckham
1.08. Matt Harmon – A.J. Green
1.09. Evan Silva – Jordy Nelson
1.10. Sigmund Bloom – LeSean McCoy
1.11. Denny Carter – Mike Evans
1.12. Shawn Siegele – Michael Thomas

Comments: Harris kicked off this unconventional draft with a mildly unconventional pick, tabbing Le'Veon over D.J. at 1.01. Bell averaged 28.0 touches per game to Johnson's pre-Week 17 24.3 last season, although Johnson has been a superior touchdown scorer. Hribar was likely pleased to end Johnson's "slide" to 1.02. The rest of this first round went about as expected in a start-five-pass-catcher league with a full point per reception. Clay -- last year's league winner -- showed no fear selecting Elliott at 1.04 despite Zeke's unsettled off-field situation. Beckham probably belongs in the top-five picks of a league like this, creating a dream scenario for Braude at 1.07. Carter's first-round pick is the same as his 2016 first-rounder in this same league (Evans). Kelley is typically a Zero RB proponent, but we may see him start running back heavy. If so, Kelley should be able to scoop a ton of value as opposing owners extend themselves to draft wide receivers, which will happen more so in the second round.

Second Round

2.01. Shawn Siegele – Amari Cooper
2.02. Denny Carter – Dez Bryant
2.03. Sigmund Bloom – Rob Gronkowski
2.04. Evan Silva – Doug Baldwin
2.05. Matt Harmon – Devonta Freeman
2.06. Mike Braude – T.Y. Hilton
2.07. Matt Kelley – Demaryius Thomas
2.08. JJ Zachariason – Jay Ajayi
2.09. Mike Clay – Jordan Howard
2.10. Graham Barfield – DeMarco Murray
2.11. Rich Hribar – Sammy Watkins
2.12. Chris Harris – Leonard Fournette


Comments: Owners to start WR/WR: Braude, Silva, Carter, Siegele. Owners to draft RB/WR or WR/RB in Rounds 1-2: Hribar, Barfield, Zachariason, Kelley, Harmon. Owners to start RB/Pass Catcher: Bloom. Owners to start RB/RB: Clay, Harris. On Twitter, I got asked a few questions about why I drafted Baldwin over Murray after ranking Murray ahead of Baldwin in my Early-Camp Top 150. My 2.04 pick came down to Baldwin versus Murray. I adjusted for league settings and league tendencies -- both alluded to in the paragraphs above -- and went with wide receiver over running back. To reiterate, this is a start-five-pass-catcher league where racing to fill the flex with a PPR-friendly asset can be critical. Kelley tricked us and did not start RB heavy, instead opting for Demaryius at 2.07 after surprising the comments section with Melvin Gordon over Odell Beckham in Round One. From a value-based drafting standpoint, I'd have a hard time arguing with Barfield's squad. He began Antonio Brown and came back with DeMarco Murray, and is about to go back on the clock early in round three.

 

Third Round

3.01. Chris Harris – Keenan Allen
3.02. Rich Hribar -- Brandin Cooks
3.03. Graham Barfield -- Travis Kelce
3.04. Mike Clay -- DeAndre Hopkins
3.05. JJ Zachariason – Terrelle Pryor
3.06. Matt Kelley – Allen Robinson
3.07. Mike Braude – Todd Gurley
3.08. Matt Harmon – Stefon Diggs
3.09. Evan Silva – Golden Tate
3.10. Sigmund Bloom – Marshawn Lynch
3.11. Denny Carter – Martavis Bryant
3.12. Shawn Siegele – Greg Olsen

Comments: I've done upwards of 150 drafts in various formats so far this year, and there is no doubt in my mind the third round is the toughest spot in 2017 drafts. Almost unfailingly, I feel like I emerge from round three with a dangerous boom-bust pick, a player at a devalued position like tight end or quarterback, or an ADP-based "reach." In this draft's third round, RB-RB beginners Harris and Clay made Allen and Hopkins, respectively, their WR1s. After Braude (Gurley) and Siegele (Olsen) switched things up with other positions, Carter and I are left as the only owners in this league to start WRx3. Zachariason showed conviction drafting Pryor in the third round after starting with Julio Jones and Jay Ajayi. (I likely would have selected Pryor had he lasted until my 3.09 pick.) I think it's safe to say Bloom is buying into Marshawn Lynch this year. Hribar began David Johnson-Sammy Watkins-Brandin Cooks, following up his high-variance WR1 (Watkins) with a high-variance WR2 (Cooks). Harmon has had a rock-solid beginning with A.J. Green, Devonta Freeman, and Stefon Diggs. I think Diggs has a realistic shot at 100 catches.

 

Fourth Round

4.01. Shawn Siegele – Christian McCaffrey
4.02. Denny Carter – Ty Montgomery
4.03. Sigmund Bloom – Aaron Rodgers
4.04. Evan Silva – Larry Fitzgerald
4.05. Matt Harmon – Tyreek Hill
4.06. Mike Braude – Jarvis Landry
4.07. Matt Kelley – Joe Mixon
4.08. JJ Zachariason – Davante Adams
4.09. Mike Clay – Alshon Jeffery
4.10. Graham Barfield – Michael Crabtree
4.11. Rich Hribar – Jordan Reed
4.12. Chris Harris – Lamar Miller

Comments: Siegele is the lone owner to begin this draft WR/WR/TE/RB. After opening WRx3, Carter goes off script with a fourth-round investment into Montgomery, who offers league-winning PPR upside should he earn bellcow workloads in Green Bay. Bloom hasn't drafted a single wide receiver yet, starting off RB/TE/RB/QB and making Rodgers the first quarterback drafted. Fitzgerald has been a top-10 receiver in this format in each of the past two seasons, so I was pleased to make him my WR4 in a stable that also includes Jordy Nelson, Doug Baldwin, and Golden Tate. I'm relying on those four wideouts to be every-week starters with consistency and high-volume upside. Concerns about Reed's seemingly minor toe injury tumbled him into Hribar's lap at 4.11. With no toe concerns, Reed is arguably a third-round pick in this format. He's been the TE1 in PPR points per game in each of the past two years. Harris is using a value-based-drafting approach, beginning with Le'Veon Bell, Leonard Fournette, Keenan Allen, and Miller. Harris will be running out a running back in the flex each week.


Fifth Round

5.01. Chris Harris – Tom Brady
5.02. Rich Hribar -- Willie Snead
5.03. Graham Barfield -- Jamison Crowder
5.04. Mike Clay -- Isaiah Crowell
5.05. JJ Zachariason – Pierre Garcon
5.06. Matt Kelley – Emmanuel Sanders
5.07. Mike Braude – Julian Edelman
5.08. Matt Harmon – Mike Gillislee
5.09. Evan Silva – Mark Ingram
5.10. Sigmund Bloom – Kelvin Benjamin
5.11. Denny Carter – Randall Cobb
5.12. Shawn Siegele – Drew Brees

Comments: Relative to ADP, it is clear now that owners are reaching for wide receivers. Benjamin usually goes at least one round later than this, and often two. Cobb sometimes goes in the eighth round. By drafting Demaryius Thomas in the second round and Sanders in the fifth, Kelley put his team in the precarious position of having to start each of Denver's wideouts every week, perhaps limiting his week-to-week upside but theoretically stabilizing his floor, assuming Trevor Siemian and/or Paxton Lynch proves competent. Barfield has emerged from the first five rounds with Antonio Brown, DeMarco Murray, Travis Kelce, Michael Crabtree, and Jamison Crowder. I'd have a hard time quibbling with anyone who called Barfield's team the best on paper in this league. After opening WRx4, I made Ingram my RB1. Ingram has been a top-nine fantasy back in this scoring format each of the past two years.


Sixth Round

6.01. Shawn Siegele – Dalvin Cook
6.02. Denny Carter – John Brown
6.03. Sigmund Bloom – Brandon Marshall
6.04. Evan Silva – Carlos Hyde
6.05. Matt Harmon – Donte Moncrief
6.06. Mike Braude – Jeremy Maclin
6.07. Matt Kelley – Jimmy Graham
6.08. JJ Zachariason – Danny Woodhead
6.09. Mike Clay – Bilal Powell
6.10. Graham Barfield – Tyrell Williams
6.11. Rich Hribar – Cameron Meredith
6.12. Chris Harris – Spencer Ware

Comments: Braude drafted Todd Gurley in the third round but otherwise has used all of his draft picks on wide receivers, stockpiling Odell Beckham, T.Y. Hilton, Jarvis Landry, Julian Edelman, and now Maclin. All of those wideouts have PPR-friendly games and should enter the season as the favorites to lead their team in targets. The fantasy community in general has been far too low on Maclin to this point, albeit to some extent understandably based on Joe Flacco's uncertain health. Bloom began RB/TE/RB/QB and is now hammering wide receivers, following up his fifth-round Kelvin Benjamin selection with sixth-rounder Brandon Marshall, giving Sig serious touchdown upside. Carter's approach has been similar to Braude's. Both have rostered just one running back so far, no tight end, and five wide receivers in what amounts to a start-four-wideouts league. I filled all three of my wide receiver slots and my flex in the first round rounds and am now trying to invest in high-upside running backs. Amid whispers the 49ers aren't sold on Hyde, his ADP has settled into the fifth-/sixth-round range. For now, at least, Hyde is my RB2 behind Mark Ingram.


Seventh Round

7.01. Chris Harris – Corey Davis
7.02. Rich Hribar -- Adrian Peterson
7.03. Graham Barfield -- DeSean Jackson
7.04. Mike Clay -- Kyle Rudolph
7.05. JJ Zachariason – Eddie Lacy
7.06. Matt Kelley – Eric Decker
7.07. Mike Braude – Ameer Abdullah
7.08. Matt Harmon – Tyler Eifert
7.09. Evan Silva – Tevin Coleman
7.10. Sigmund Bloom – DeVante Parker
7.11. Denny Carter – Frank Gore
7.12. Shawn Siegele – Adam Thielen

Comments: Harris and Clay entered round seven with four running backs apiece, most in the league. Harris made Titans rookie Davis his WR2 with a WR1 of Keenan Allen. Harris will need to find some late-round receiver hits. Clay went with PPR-friendly TE Rudolph here. His wide receivers are DeAndre Hopkins and Alshon Jeffery, so Clay is also needy in his third wideout spot. Barfield spent his first three receiver selections on consistent scorers Antonio Brown, Michael Crabtree, and Jamison Crowder, then followed up with higher-variance targets Tyrell Williams and DeSean Jackson. Barfield's other picks went to DeMarco Murray and Travis Kelce, so we should see him draft an RB2 fairly soon. Gore fills Carter's RB2 spot behind Ty Montgomery with a wideout corps of Mike Evans, Dez Bryant, Martavis Bryant, John Brown, and Randall Cobb. I made Coleman my RB3 behind Mark Ingram and Carlos Hyde after a WRx4 start. I'm viewing Coleman as an every-week flex option who would become an every-week RB1 if Devonta Freeman misses time. Only three quarterbacks have been selected, and none since Siegele made Drew Brees the final pick of the fifth round. All in all, wide receivers have dominated this draft with 45 gone. 29 running backs have been taken. Seven tight ends are off the board.

Eighth Round

8.01. Shawn Siegele – Kenny Britt
8.02. Denny Carter – Terrance West
8.03. Sigmund Bloom – Derrick Henry
8.04. Evan Silva – Theo Riddick
8.05. Matt Harmon – C.J. Anderson
8.06. Mike Braude – Paul Perkins
8.07. Matt Kelley – Marvin Jones
8.08. JJ Zachariason – Eric Ebron
8.09. Mike Clay – Matt Ryan
8.10. Graham Barfield – Mike Wallace
8.11. Rich Hribar – Doug Martin
8.12. Chris Harris – Hunter Henry

Comments: Siegele used the seventh-/eighth-round turn to fill out his WR3 and WR4 spots with Adam Thielen and Britt behind WR1 Michael Thomas and WR2 Amari Cooper. Siegele's starting lineup is filled out with Drew Brees at quarterback for a Brees-Thomas stack, rookies Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook at running back, and Greg Olsen at tight end. My 8.04 pick came down to Riddick versus Russell Wilson. Based on how late quarterbacks tend to go in this league, I thought there was a small chance Wilson would make it back to me in round nine. Riddick is my RB4 behind Mark Ingram, Carlos Hyde, and Tevin Coleman. I've yet to draft a quarterback or tight end. Harmon has gone balanced, securing Devonta Freeman, Mike Gillislee, and C.J. Anderson at running back, A.J. Green, Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill, and Donte Moncrief at wideout, and Tyler Eifert at tight end. Harris made popular breakout candidate Hunter Henry the TE9 taken, ahead of Delanie Walker, Zach Ertz, and Martellus Bennett. Hribar took the Doug Martin plunge late in round eight, making Martin his RB3 behind David Johnson and Adrian Peterson. Bloom usually swings for the fences, so his Henry pick at 8.03 wasn't surprising. Henry is Sig's RB3 behind LeSean McCoy and Marshawn Lynch, with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, Rob Gronkowski at tight end, and Kelvin Benjamin, Brandon Marshall, and Devante Parker manning his WR1-3 slots.

Ninth Round

9.01. Chris Harris – Quincy Enunwa
9.02. Rich Hribar -- Delanie Walker
9.03. Graham Barfield -- C.J. Prosise
9.04. Mike Clay -- Josh Doctson
9.05. JJ Zachariason – Ted Ginn
9.06. Matt Kelley – Rishard Matthews
9.07. Mike Braude – Zach Ertz
9.08. Matt Harmon – Russell Wilson
9.09. Evan Silva – Martellus Bennett
9.10. Sigmund Bloom – Tyler Lockett
9.11. Denny Carter – Kareem Hunt
9.12. Shawn Siegele – Corey Coleman

Comments: Harris unfortunately drafted Enunwa mere hours before the Jets placed him on I.R. with a neck injury. So Harris will have to go back to the drawing board for his WR3. Barfield has been a huge Prosise supporter since he came out of Notre Dame, and he resumed drafting running backs here after spending seven of his first eight selections on pass catchers. So Prosise is presently Barfield's RB2 behind DeMarco Murray. Barfield's wideouts are Antonio Brown, Michael Crabtree, Jamison Crowder, Tyrell Williams, DeSean Jackson, and Mike Wallace with Travis Kelce at tight end and no quarterback. I'll enter the double-digit rounds with a 4xWR start followed by a 4xRB run and Martellus Bennett in my TE1 slot. I like Bennett's touchdown upside with Aaron Rodgers. Lockett slides in as Bloom's WR4. Bloom has been pounding the table for Lockett as a mid- to late-round pick since the spring. Carter's ninth-round pick Kareem Hunt has had a quiet start to camp, so we may begin to see his ADP fall a bit, at least until Hunt does something notable in preseason games. Hunt maintains enough upside to be well worthy of Carter's RB4 slot, behind Ty Montgomery, Frank Gore, and Terrance West.

Tenth Round

10.01. Shawn Siegele – Marqise Lee
10.02. Denny Carter – Kevin White
10.03. Sigmund Bloom – Andrew Luck
10.04. Evan Silva – Darren McFadden
10.05. Matt Harmon – Sterling Shepard
10.06. Mike Braude – Duke Johnson
10.07. Matt Kelley – Jacquizz Rodgers
10.08. JJ Zachariason – Kenny Golladay
10.09. Mike Clay – Robert Woods
10.10. Graham Barfield – LeGarrette Blount
10.11. Rich Hribar – Cooper Kupp
10.12. Chris Harris – Jonathan Stewart

Comments: We see two hyped rookie receivers go in this round ahead of starting quarterbacks. Golladay has a real chance to become the Lions' top vertical threat in year one based on camp buzz. Kupp is already listed as a starter, and offers PPR upside if he forms a checkdown-repetitive bond with Jared Goff in the slot. As whispers surfaced Ezekiel Elliott's suspension could stretch as many as four games, I made McFadden my RB5 as the confirmed No. 2 on Dallas' running back depth chart. Even after starting WRx4 with a single-digit-round tight end, I was able to stockpile Mark Ingram, Carlos Hyde, Tevin Coleman, Theo Riddick, and McFadden at running back with eight rounds left to go. Carter threw a tenth-round dart at former No. 7 overall pick White, who was a target monster when available for games in 2016 but has many signs of an epic draft bust. Balanced-starter Siegele's draft has gone mid-round wide receiver heavy with Adam Thielen, Kenny Britt, Corey Coleman, and Marqise Lee all in a row.



Evan Silva is a senior football editor for Rotoworld.com. He can be found on Twitter .
Email :Evan Silva



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