Justin Bailey

Targets and Touches

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Week 1 AFC Targets/Touches

Wednesday, September 13, 2017


Targets and Touches will only have players’ six most recent games, regardless of whether they were active or on a bye. The data will be in descending order of games played. I also decided to add carries inside the five-yard line for running backs rather than just red zone carries. Carries inside the five are more valuable overall as the average touchdown rate over the last 10 years from within five yards is 39 percent, with a substantial drop from further out.

 

All targets and touches data is compiled from Pro Football Reference. Cornerback data is sourced via Pro Football Focus. The NFC will be released on Tuesdays, while the AFC is published on Wednesday.

 

The goal of these articles is to give you an idea of what the usage looks like for each player within their offenses, allowing you to spot any positive or negative trends regarding how a player is being used, and most importantly — letting the numbers tell the story.

 

Note:  This data will stick to mainly fantasy-relevant players.

 

 

Baltimore Ravens

 

Targets: Breshad Perriman (4), Jeremy Maclin (4), Danny Woodhead (3), Benjamin Watson (1), Javorius Allen (1), Maxx Williams (1), Mike Wallace (1), Terrance West (1)

 

Carries: Javorius Allen (21), Terrance West (19), Danny Woodhead (1)

 

RZ Targets: Breshad Perriman (2), Danny Woodhead (1), Javorius Allen (1), Jeremy Maclin (1)

 

RZ Carries: Terrance West (2), Danny Woodhead (1), Javorius Allen (1)

 

Inside 5 Carries: Terrance West (1)

 

Coverage Data (via PFF): Brandon Carr (2-15-0), Jimmy Smith (3-31-0)

 

Observations: After Danny Woodhead left the game with a hamstring injury, Terrance West and Buck Allen went on to combine for 71 percent of the Ravens’ offensive touches as Flacco threw the ball 17 times. The Ravens fear that Woodhead will miss significant time. Allen would likely slide in as the third-down back, with the possibility for more as he had 21 total carries on Sunday against the Bengals.

 

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Buffalo Bills

 

Targets: Charles Clay (9), LeSean McCoy (6), Zay Jones (4), Jordan Matthews (3), Mike Tolbert (1), Patrick DiMarco (1)

 

Carries: LeSean McCoy (22), Mike Tolbert (12)

 

RZ Targets: Charles Clay (3), Patrick DiMarco (1), Zay Jones (1)

 

RZ Carries: LeSean McCoy (5), Mike Tolbert (2)

 

Inside 5 Carries: Mike Tolbert (2), LeSean McCoy (1)

 

Coverage Data (via PFF): E.J. Gaines (2-5-0), Leonard Johnson (5-39-0), Shareece Wright (1-2-0), Tre'Davious White (2-30-0)

 

Observations: As seven-point home favorites, LeSean McCoy throttled a Jets’ “run defense” for 110 yards on 22 carries. McCoy saw 40 percent of their offensive looks as he finished second on the team in targets (six.) Targets will be tough to go around in this offense as the Bills are a low-volume passing team. Taylor threw just 28 times on Sunday, and they ranked 32nd in pass attempts last season with a league-low 474 attempts. Newly acquired Jordan Matthews saw just three targets, while McCoy and Charles Clay (nine targets) combined for 53 percent of the target share. Mike Tolbert did receive two carries from inside the five, but one of them happened when McCoy had to leave from an injury briefly.

 

Cincinnati Bengals

 

Targets: A.J. Green (10), Brandon LaFell (5), Tyler Boyd (4), Joe Mixon (3), Giovani Bernard (2), Jeremy Hill (1), Tyler Eifert (1)

 

Carries: Joe Mixon (8), Giovani Bernard (7), Jeremy Hill (6)

 

RZ Targets: A.J. Green (2), Brandon LaFell (2)

 

RZ Carries: Giovani Bernard (2), Jeremy Hill (1)

 

Inside 5 Carries: None

 

Coverage Data (via PFF): Darqueze Dennard (1-48-1), William Jackson (3-25-0)

 

Observations: Jeremy Hill played the fewest snaps (10) among Bengals running backs. Giovani Bernard (29) and Joe Mixon (22) were in the mix much more than Hill. Mixon led the Bengals with 21 percent of the offensive looks. He also led the Bengals with eight carries, but they went for just nine yards. Despite averaging 11.67 fantasy points per game when the Bengals are favored, Tyler Eifert saw just one target even though Andy Dalton threw the ball 31 times. He’ll look to bounce back against the Texans on Thursday night.

 

Cleveland Browns

 

Targets: Corey Coleman (6), Duke Johnson (5), Seth DeValve (5), Kenny Britt (3), Ricardo Louis (3), Isaiah Crowell (2)

 

Carries: Isaiah Crowell (17)

 

RZ Targets: Corey Coleman (1), Ricardo Louis (1)

 

RZ Carries: Isaiah Crowell (2)

 

Inside 5 Carries: Isaiah Crowell (1)

 

Coverage Data (via PFF): Briean Boddy-Calhoun (1-6-0), Jamar Taylor (8-82-0), Jason McCourty (2-54-0)

 

Observations: Duke Johnson saw five targets and ran primarily out of the slot for the Browns, but the Browns stated it was “game-plan specific." Isaiah Crowell played 79 percent of the running back snaps and received 17 of their total 20 running back carries. Seth DeValve ran just 19 pass routes but was tied for the second-most targets on the team (five). Corey Coleman looked to be DeShone Kizer’s favorite target as he led the team with six targets.

 

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Denver Broncos

 

Targets: Demaryius Thomas (8), Emmanuel Sanders (6), Bennie Fowler (4), A.J. Derby (3), C.J. Anderson (3), Jeff Heuerman (2), Jamaal Charles (1), Virgil Green (1)

 

Carries: C.J. Anderson (20), Jamaal Charles (10)

 

RZ Targets: Bennie Fowler (2), A.J. Derby (1), C.J. Anderson (1), Emmanuel Sanders (1)

 

RZ Carries: C.J. Anderson (5), Jamaal Charles (4)

 

Inside 5 Carries: C.J. Anderson (3), Jamaal Charles (2)

 

Coverage Data (via PFF): Aqib Talib (4-26-0), Bradley Roby (5-77-1), Chris Harris Jr. (2-8-1)

 

Observations: C.J. Anderson out-snapped Jamaal Charles 48-to-21 and out-carried him 20-to-10. Overall, Anderson saw 36 percent of the Broncos’ offensive looks. However, it is notable that Charles and Anderson saw similar work inside the red zone as Charles had just one less carry than Anderson in the red zone and from within five yards.


Houston Texans

 

Targets: DeAndre Hopkins (16), Stephen Anderson (5), Tyler Ervin (5), C.J. Fiedorowicz (4), Bruce Ellington (2), Lamar Miller (2), Braxton Miller (1), Ryan Griffin (1)

 

Carries: Lamar Miller (17), Tyler Ervin (3), D'Onta Foreman (1)

 

RZ Targets: DeAndre Hopkins (3), Bruce Ellington (1)

 

RZ Carries: None

 

Inside 5 Carries: None

 

Coverage Data (via PFF): Kareem Jackson (2-24-0), Kevin Johnson (3-46-0)

 

Observations: DeAndre Hopkins dominated target share with 16 targets, but he was only able to haul in seven of them due to shaky quarterback play. PFF noted that only eight of his targets were deemed catchable. His volume is encouraging, but the quarterback play will limit his upside.

 

Indianapolis Colts


Targets: T.Y. Hilton (7), Donte Moncrief (4), Jack Doyle (3), Kamar Aiken (2), Frank Gore (1), Marlon Mack


Carries: Frank Gore (10), Marlon Mack (10), Robert Turbin (2)


RZ Targets: Donte Moncrief (1), T.Y. Hilton (1)


RZ Carries: Marlon Mack (3), Robert Turbin (1)


Inside 5 Carries: Marlon Mack (3), Robert Turbin (1)


Coverage Data (via PFF): Nate Hairston (1-8-0), Quincy Wilson (1-28-0), Rashaan Melvin (6-46-0), T.J. Green (2-39-1)


Observations: The Colts were atrocious on Sunday. Scott Tolzien struggled as he threw for 128 yards and two interceptions. T.Y. Hilton was the favorite targets as he saw 33 percent of the target share. Frank Gore and Marlon Mack each saw 10 carries and one target. Jacoby Brissett will likely start Week 2 against the Cardinals.


Jacksonville Jaguars

 

Targets: Allen Hurns (4), Marqise Lee (4), Leonard Fournette (3), Chris Ivory (2), Keelan Cole (2), Allen Robinson (1)

 

Carries: Leonard Fournette (26), Chris Ivory (9)

 

RZ Targets: Allen Hurns (1), Keelan Cole (1)

 

RZ Carries: Leonard Fournette (7), Chris Ivory (1)

 

Inside 5 Carries: Leonard Fournette (4)

 

Coverage Data (via PFF): A.J. Bouye (3-28-0), Aaron Colvin (2-9-0), Jalen Ramsey (3-23-0)

 

Observations: The Jaguars didn’t need to pass the ball much (21 pass attempts) as they throttled the Texans 29 to 7. Leonard Fournette saw 48 percent of the Jaguars’ offensive looks and out-carried Chris Ivory 26-to-9 on his way to a 100-yard rushing game with one touchdown. If the Jaguars’ stout defense can keep Jacksonville competitive, Fournette’s elite usage will put him in position to have some big weeks. Fournette handled four of the five rushing attempts for the Jaguars inside the five-yard line. Allen Robinson was also placed on injured reserve. Marqise Lee, Allen Hurns, Keelan Cole, and Arrelious Benn are currently the only four active receivers for the Jaguars.



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Justin Bailey has been working with Rotoworld since 2015. His stat-forward analysis can also be found on FantasyLabs and 4for4. Follow him on Twitter - @justinbailey32.
Email :Justin Bailey



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