Justin Bailey

Targets and Touches

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Week 2 AFC Targets/Touches

Wednesday, September 20, 2017


Targets and Touches will only have players’ six most recent games, regardless of whether they were active or on a bye. The data will be in descending order of games played. I also decided to add carries inside the five-yard line for running backs rather than just red zone carries. Carries inside the five are more valuable overall as the average touchdown rate over the last 10 years from within five yards is 39 percent, with a substantial drop from further out.

 

All targets and touches data is compiled from Pro Football Reference. Cornerback data is sourced via Pro Football Focus. The NFC will be released on Tuesdays, while the AFC is published on Wednesday.

 

The goal of these articles is to give you an idea of what the usage looks like for each player within their offenses, allowing you to spot any positive or negative trends regarding how a player is being used, and most importantly — letting the numbers tell the story.

 

Note:  This data will stick to mainly fantasy-relevant players.

 

 

Baltimore Ravens

 

Targets: Benjamin Watson (1, 8), Jeremy Maclin (4, 5), Breshad Perriman (4, 4), Javorius Allen (1, 6), Mike Wallace (1, 3), Terrance West (1, 2)

 

Carries: Javorius Allen (21, 14), Terrance West (19, 8)

 

RZ Targets: Javorius Allen (1, 2), Breshad Perriman (2, 0), Jeremy Maclin (1, 1)

 

RZ Carries: Terrance West (2, 2), Javorius Allen (1, 2)

 

Inside 5 Carries: Terrance West (1, 1)

 

Coverage Data (via PFF): Brandon Carr (2-15-0, 3-37-0), Jimmy Smith (3-31-0, 1-8-0), Lardarius Webb (1-14-0, 5-117-0), Marlon Humphrey (0, 1-3-0)

 

Observations: Terrance West's snap percentage was nearly cut in half as he went from 41 percent of the snaps in Week 1 to 22 percent in Week 2. Buck Allen out-snapped West 42 to 15, while seeing 30 percent of the Ravens’ offensive looks. Ben Watson and Jeremy Maclin led the Ravens with nine targets through two weeks. Mike Wallace has seen just four targets in two games and is being out-targeted by everyone with the exception of West and Nick Boyle.

 

Buffalo Bills

 

Targets: LeSean McCoy (6, 7), Charles Clay (9, 3), Zay Jones (4, 6), Jordan Matthews (3, 3), Andre Holmes (1, 4), Mike Tolbert (1, 1)

 

Carries: LeSean McCoy (22, 12), Mike Tolbert (12, 3)

 

RZ Targets: Charles Clay (3, 0), Andre Holmes (1, 0), Zay Jones (1, 0)

 

RZ Carries: LeSean McCoy (5, 0), Mike Tolbert (2, 0)

 

Inside 5 Carries: Mike Tolbert (2, 0), LeSean McCoy (1, 0)

 

Coverage Data (via PFF): E.J. Gaines (2-5-0, 4-35-0), Leonard Johnson (5-39-0, 4-33-0), Shareece Wright (1-2-0, 0), Tre'Davious White (2-30-0, 5-78-0)

 

Observations: The Bills’ offense struggled big time in this one, as they racked up just 176 yards of total offense and 107 passing yards. Tyrod Taylor attempted 25 passes, and it was the running back, LeSean McCoy who led them with seven targets. Followed by Zay Jones with six. None of the Bills skill-positions had more than 34 receiving yards. The offense is filtered through McCoy as he owns 40 percent of the offensive looks, the next closest non-running back is Charles Clay with 10 percent of their looks.

 

Cincinnati Bengals

 

Targets: A.J. Green (10, 8), Brandon LaFell (5, 7), Giovani Bernard (2, 4), Tyler Eifert (1, 4), Joe Mixon (3, 1), Jeremy Hill (1, 1)

 

Carries: Joe Mixon (8, 9), Giovani Bernard (7, 5), Jeremy Hill (6, 6), John Ross (0, 1)

 

RZ Targets: Brandon LaFell (2, 2), A.J. Green (2, 0), Tyler Eifert (0, 1)

 

RZ Carries: Jeremy Hill (1, 3), Giovani Bernard (2, 1)

 

Inside 5 Carries: None

 

Coverage Data (via PFF): Adam Jones (0, 4-34-0), Darqueze Dennard (1-48-1, 2-16-0), Dre Kirkpatrick (0, 2-13-0), William Jackson (3-25-0, 0)

 

Observations: The Bengals’ offense has been abysmal this season as 12 percent of their drives have gone for a score this season, while 24 percent of their drives have resulted in a turnover. Both are bottom-two marks among offenses. A.J. Green leads them with 27 percent target share through two weeks (18 targets), and the next closest is Brandon LaFell with 12 targets. Through two weeks their running back snap share has been Giovani Bernard 50 percent, Joe Mixon 30 percent, and Jeremy Hill 20 percent. Mixon has out-carried Bernard and Hill 17 to 12 through the first two weeks. The Bengals' running backs are in a poor spot on Sunday as they opened as eight-point underdogs against the Packers in Week 3, and they’re implied for just 18.25 points.

 

Cleveland Browns

 

Targets: Corey Coleman (6, 7), Duke Johnson (5, 6), Rashard Higgins (0, 11), Seth DeValve (5, 4), David Njoku (2, 4), Kenny Britt (3, 2), Ricardo Louis (3, 2), Sammie Coates (0, 4), Isaiah Crowell (2, 1), Kasen Williams (2, 0), Matt Dayes (2, 0), Randall Telfer (0, 1)

 

Carries: Isaiah Crowell (17, 10), Duke Johnson (0, 4), Matt Dayes (3, 0), Rashard Higgins (0, 1)

 

RZ Targets: Corey Coleman (1, 1), David Njoku (1, 0), Rashard Higgins (0, 1), Ricardo Louis (1, 0), Seth DeValve (0, 1)

 

RZ Carries: Isaiah Crowell (2, 0), Duke Johnson (0, 1), Matt Dayes (1, 0)

 

Inside 5 Carries: Isaiah Crowell (1, 0)

 

Coverage Data (via PFF): Jamar Taylor (7-63-0, 4-27-0), Jason McCourty (2-54-0, 1-7-0)

 

Observations: With the injury to Corey Coleman, Rashard Higgins came on strong, playing 76 percent of the snaps and leading the team in targets (11), receptions (seven), and receiving yards (95.) Coleman is expected to miss six-to-eight weeks — making Higgins a popular waiver wire add. Kenny Britt continues to flounder with just five targets through two weeks.

 

Denver Broncos

 

Targets: Demaryius Thomas (8, 8), Emmanuel Sanders (6, 8), Bennie Fowler (4, 3), C.J. Anderson (3, 3), Jamaal Charles (1, 1)

 

Carries: C.J. Anderson (20, 25), Jamaal Charles (10, 9)

 

RZ Targets: Emmanuel Sanders (1, 3), Bennie Fowler (2, 1), C.J. Anderson (1, 2)

 

RZ Carries: C.J. Anderson (5, 5), Jamaal Charles (4, 1)

 

Inside 5 Carries: C.J. Anderson (3, 1), Jamaal Charles (2, 0)

 

Coverage Data (via PFF): Aqib Talib (4-26-0, 5-46-1), Bradley Roby (5-77-1, 4-26-0), Chris Harris Jr. (2-8-1, 3-29-0)

 

Observations: The Broncos’ passing game is fairly condensed as Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas have accounted for 50 percent of their target share, but Sanders is out-targeting Thomas in the red zone 4:0 so far. C.J. Anderson has out-carried Jamaal Charles 25:9 through two games and owns 39 percent of their offensive looks. Anderson is leading them with four carries inside the five-yard line which is crucial for fantasy running backs.


Houston Texans

 

Targets: DeAndre Hopkins (16, 13), Tyler Ervin (5, 5), Lamar Miller (2, 3), Stephen Anderson (5, 0), Braxton Miller (1, 3)

 

Carries: Lamar Miller (17, 18), D'Onta Foreman (1, 12)

 

RZ Targets: DeAndre Hopkins (3, 0), Tyler Ervin (1, 1)

 

RZ Carries: D'Onta Foreman (0, 4)

 

Inside 5 Carries: None

 

Coverage Data (via PFF): Johnathan Joseph (0, 1-22-0), Kareem Jackson (2-24-0, 4-112-0), Kevin Johnson (3-46-0, 5-24-0)

 

Observations: DeAndre Hopkins now has a league-high 29 targets through two games, he ranks fifth in the league in receptions, but just 23rd in receiving yards. Hopkins makes for a safe floor-play as he owns 48 percent of the target share for the Texans. The only downside is coming from his shaky quarterback play. Of his 29 targets, PFF has deemed only 15 of them catchable.

 

Indianapolis Colts


Targets: T.Y. Hilton (7, 6), Donte Moncrief (4, 8), Jack Doyle (3, 8), Kamar Aiken (2, 9), Frank Gore (1, 2), Marlon Mack (1, 1)


Carries: Frank Gore (10, 14), Marlon Mack (10, 6)


RZ Targets: T.Y. Hilton (1, 2), Donte Moncrief (1, 1), Frank Gore (0, 1)


RZ Carries: Frank Gore (0, 4), Marlon Mack (3, 0)


Inside 5 Carries: Marlon Mack (3, 0), Frank Gore (0, 1)


Coverage Data (via PFF): Kenny Moore II (0, 2-42-0), Nate Hairston (1-8-0, 4-50-0), Quincy Wilson (1-28-0, 6-171-1), Rashaan Melvin (6-46-0, 3-41-0), T.J. Green (2-39-1, 0)


Observations: With Jacoby Brissett starting in Week 2, he appeared locked on to Jack Doyle who caught all eight of his targets for 79 yards. Doyle is a viable streamer next week as the Colts take on the Browns, a team that allowed 22 fantasy points to Jesse James in Week 1, and 17 fantasy points to Ben Watson in Week 2.


Jacksonville Jaguars

 

Targets: Marqise Lee (4, 12), Allen Hurns (4, 7), Leonard Fournette (3, 5), Chris Ivory (2, 4), Keelan Cole (2, 3), Marcedes Lewis (2, 2)

 

Carries: Leonard Fournette (26, 14), Chris Ivory (9, 6)

 

RZ Targets: Allen Hurns (1, 2), Keelan Cole (1, 0)

 

RZ Carries: Leonard Fournette (7, 1), Chris Ivory (1, 0)

 

Inside 5 Carries: Leonard Fournette (4, 1)

 

Coverage Data (via PFF): A.J. Bouye (3-28-0, 4-88-0), Aaron Colvin (2-9-0, 4-48-0), Jalen Ramsey (3-23-0, 0)

 

Observations: With Allen Robinson out, Marqise Lee dominated target share for the Jaguars as he saw 35 percent of the team’s targets, and finished second in receiving yards. Lee and Allen Hurns played over 86 percent of the team’s snaps, combining for 56 percent of the target share and 78 percent of the receiving-yard production.


Kansas City Chiefs


Targets: Travis Kelce (7, 10), Tyreek Hill (8, 6), Albert Wilson (5, 3), Chris Conley (4, 4), Kareem Hunt (5, 3), Charcandrick West (1, 0)


Carries: Kareem Hunt (17, 13), Tyreek Hill (2, 1), Albert Wilson (0, 1), Charcandrick West (1, 0), Travis Kelce (1, 0)


RZ Targets: Travis Kelce (1, 3), Albert Wilson (1, 0), Kareem Hunt (1, 0)


RZ Carries: Kareem Hunt (2, 3)


Inside 5 Carries: Kareem Hunt (1, 1)


Coverage Data (via PFF): Marcus Peters (0, 6-71-0), Phillip Gaines (3-57-0, 3-48-1), Terrance Mitchell (4-96-0, 5-70-0)


Observations: Through two weeks, Kareem Hunt leads all fantasy players with 71.5 points in PPR leagues. While he leads all players, Hunt is 23.2 points ahead of the next running back, which is Ty Montgomery at 48.3 points.


Los Angeles Chargers


Targets: Keenan Allen (10, 10), Melvin Gordon (6, 8), Tyrell Williams (7, 4), Antonio Gates (3, 4), Hunter Henry (0, 7), Travis Benjamin (4, 3)


Carries: Melvin Gordon (18, 9), Branden Oliver (4, 3)


RZ Targets: Antonio Gates (0, 2), Melvin Gordon (1, 1), Hunter Henry (0, 1), Keenan Allen (1, 0)


RZ Carries: Melvin Gordon (2, 1)


Inside 5 Carries: Melvin Gordon (0, 1)


Coverage Data (via PFF): Casey Hayward (5-81-0, 3-43-0), Desmond King (0, 5-57-0), Jason Verrett (1-4-0, 0), Trevor Williams (1-2-0, 3-41-0)


Observations: Keenan Allen followed up his Week 1, 10-target performance with another 10-target performance against the Dolphins in Week 2. Melvin Gordon finished second in targets, with eight. Gordon has the second-highest target share through two weeks, which makes him one of those rare backs that plays all of the snaps and sees all the goal-line work. Hunter Henry saw his snap count increase from 39 percent to 57 percent in Week 2. He narrowly out-snapped Antonio Gates. It was a nice bounce-back spot for Henry as he didn’t receive a target in Week 1.

 

Miami Dolphins


Targets: Jarvis Landry (0, 15), DeVante Parker (0, 9), Kenny Stills (0, 5), Julius Thomas (0, 3), Jay Ajayi (0, 2)


Carries: Jay Ajayi (0, 28), Jarvis Landry (0, 1)


RZ Targets: Jarvis Landry (0, 3), DeVante Parker (0, 1), Kenny Stills (0, 1)


RZ Carries: Jay Ajayi (0, 4)


Inside 5 Carries: None


Coverage Data (via PFF): Bobby McCain (0, 1-4-0), Byron Maxwell (0, 3-48-0), Xavien Howard (0, 10-87-0)


Observations: Jarvis Landry put together the most Landry game ever this week as he had 15 targets, 13 receptions, 44 percent target share and 78 receiving yards. He garnered just 38 air yards (11 percent air yards share) with a 2.5 average depth of target (aDOT.) Landy was seeing high percentage throws, while DeVante Parker put together a 4-85 line on nine targets. However, Parker had an aDOT of 19 and led the team with 171 air yards.

 

New England Patriots


Targets: Rob Gronkowski (6, 9), James White (5, 8), Brandin Cooks (7, 4), Chris Hogan (5, 6), Danny Amendola (7, 0), Rex Burkhead (3, 4), Phillip Dorsett (1, 3), Dwayne Allen (2, 1)


Carries: Mike Gillislee (15, 18), James White (10, 2), Dion Lewis (2, 4), Rex Burkhead (3, 2), Chris Hogan (3, 0), Brandin Cooks (0, 2), Phillip Dorsett (0, 1)


RZ Targets: Chris Hogan (0, 3), Rob Gronkowski (2, 1), Rex Burkhead (1, 1), Danny Amendola (1, 0), Dwayne Allen (0, 1), James White (0, 1), Phillip Dorsett (0, 1)


RZ Carries: Mike Gillislee (8, 5), James White (6, 0), Dion Lewis (0, 1), Rex Burkhead (1, 0)


Inside 5 Carries: Mike Gillislee (4, 1), James White (1, 0)


Coverage Data (via PFF): Eric Rowe (3-45-0, 3-70-0), Jonathan Jones (0, 4-62-0), Malcolm Butler (5-29-0, 4-40-1), Stephon Gilmore (1-4-0, 2-40-0)


Observations: Rob Gronkowski bounced back in this game going 6-116-1 on nine targets, but he did suffer a groin injury that he claimed wasn’t “serious.” In a game where Brady threw for 447 yards and three touchdowns, it was unfortunate that Brandin Cooks went just 2-37 on four targets. Through two weeks Gronkowski currently leads the Patriots with 20 percent target share, followed by James White at 17 percent. White also had the third-most receiving yards. Of White's 73 snaps, he has spent 51 of them in a pass route, per PFF.

 

New York Jets


Targets: Jermaine Kearse (9, 5), Robby Anderson (8, 4), Matt Forte (5, 4), Bilal Powell (6, 2), Will Tye (3, 3), ArDarius Stewart (5, 0), Jeremy Kerley (0, 3)


Carries: Matt Forte (6, 9), Bilal Powell (7, 6), Elijah McGuire (0, 6)


RZ Targets: Bilal Powell (1, 1), Jermaine Kearse (1, 1), ArDarius Stewart (1, 0), Robby Anderson (0, 1)


RZ Carries: None


Inside 5 Carries: None


Coverage Data (via PFF): Buster Skrine (1-47-0, 2-3-1), Darryl Roberts (0, 1-6-0), Juston Burris (0, 5-49-2), Morris Claiborne (1-21-0, 3-29-0)


Observations: Jermaine Kearse leads the Jets with 22 percent target share through two weeks, and he’s the only pass-catcher on the team with over 60 receiving yards. It’s tough relying on any of the Jets running backs when they’re on such a bad offense. None of the running backs have a carry inside the red zone.

 

Oakland Raiders


Targets: Amari Cooper (13, 5), Michael Crabtree (7, 6), Jared Cook (5, 6), DeAndre Washington (2, 3), Marshawn Lynch (2, 2), Jalen Richard (1, 2), Seth Roberts (1, 1)


Carries: Marshawn Lynch (18, 12), Jalen Richard (5, 6), DeAndre Washington (3, 6),


RZ Targets: Amari Cooper (4, 0), DeAndre Washington (0, 2), Michael Crabtree (0, 2), Seth Roberts (1, 1), Jared Cook (0, 1)


RZ Carries: Marshawn Lynch (3, 3), Jalen Richard (0, 2)


Inside 5 Carries: Marshawn Lynch (2, 3)


Coverage Data (via PFF): David Amerson (2-34-0, 4-62-2), Dexter McDonald (1-9-0, 0), Gareon Conley (0, 1-8-0), Sean Smith (2-4-0, 0), T.J. Carrie (3-19-0, 5-38-0)


Observations: After Amari Cooper saw 41 percent of the target share in Week 1, target distribution was a little bit more even in Week 2. Cooper, Michael Crabtree, and Jared Cook were all in the five-to-six target range. Crabtree turned in the superior day as he scored three times, including converting both of his red-zone targets for a touchdown.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers


Targets: Antonio Brown (11, 11), Jesse James (8, 5), Eli Rogers (4, 7), LeVeon Bell (6, 4), Martavis Bryant (6, 4)


Carries: LeVeon Bell (10, 27), James Conner (4, 1), Martavis Bryant (0, 1)


RZ Targets: Jesse James (3, 0), Juju Smith-Schuster (0, 2), Antonio Brown (0, 1), Eli Rogers (0, 1), LeVeon Bell (1, 0)


RZ Carries: LeVeon Bell (3, 5)


Inside 5 Carries: None


Coverage Data (via PFF): Artie Burns (3-11-1, 3-20-0), Joe Haden (7-109-0, 1-24-0), Mike Hilton (2-12-0, 6-39-0), William Gay (3-16-0, 2-9-0)

  

Observations: After playing 72 percent of the snaps in Week 1, Le’Veon Bell went back to his normal snap-share and played 92 percent of the snaps for the Steelers. Bell has spent 50 of his 111 snaps running a pass route this season, which ranks eighth among running backs. However, his .38 yards per route run ranks dead last among qualifying running backs.


Tennessee Titans


Targets: Rishard Matthews (9, 5), Corey Davis (10, 3), Delanie Walker (9, 4), Eric Decker (8, 5), DeMarco Murray (2, 2), Taywan Taylor (2, 1)


Carries: DeMarco Murray (12, 9), Derrick Henry (6, 14), Taywan Taylor (0, 2), Delanie Walker (0, 1)


RZ Targets: Eric Decker (3, 0), Rishard Matthews (1, 2), Corey Davis (1, 0)


RZ Carries: Derrick Henry (0, 5), DeMarco Murray (1, 1), Delanie Walker (0, 1)


Inside 5 Carries: Delanie Walker (0, 1)


Coverage Data (via PFF): Adoree' Jackson (4-47-1, 4-42-0), Brice McCain (2-28-0, 0), LeShaun Sims (0, 4-42-0), Logan Ryan (1-19-1, 3-39-1), Tye Smith (1-2-0, 0)


Observations: With DeMarco Murray tweaking his hamstring, Derrick Henry out-carried Murray in this one 14:9, and he also received five of their six red-zone carries. Henry is a threat to lead the Titans in carries for their Week 3 matchup against the Seahawks. The Seahawks’ defense has allowed 5.2 YPC this season — the fourth-worst mark in the league. Corey Davis also injured his hamstring in this game, the one that kept him out for training camp. The matchup isn’t ideal next week for the Titans’ pass-catchers against a tough Seattle secondary, even though they are currently three-point favorites at home.








Justin Bailey has been working with Rotoworld since 2015. His stat-forward analysis can also be found on FantasyLabs and 4for4. Follow him on Twitter - @justinbailey32.
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