Rich Hribar

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The NFL Week 5 Worksheet

Wednesday, October 4, 2017


Titans @ Dolphins


TennesseeRank@MiamiRank
n/a   Spread n/a  
n/a   Implied Total n/a  
58.8 30 Plays/Gm 59.3 28
68.5 30 Opp. Plays/Gm 61.0 11
47.2% 8 Rush% 34.8% 27
52.8% 25 Pass% 65.2% 6
43.1% 18 Opp. Rush % 41.5% 16
56.9% 15 Opp. Pass % 58.5% 17

 

  • The Titans have allowed 13 red zone touchdowns, the most in the league.
  • Just 8.4 percent of the Miami offensive plays have been run inside of the red zone, ahead of only the Jets (7.2 percent).
  • Tennessee has allowed a touchdown on 31.1 percent of their opponent's drives, the second-highest rate in the league.        
  • The Dolphins have scored a touchdown on just 2-of-30 possessions (6.7 percent), the lowest rate in the league.
  • Miami has led for just 2.2 percent of their offensive plays, ahead of only Cleveland.
  • Tennessee is allowing 20.9 passing points per game to opposing passers, 31st in the league (New England, 22.9 points per game).
  • Just 35.7 percent of Jay Cutler's completions have gained 10 or more yards, ahead of only Joe Flacco (30.1 percent).
  • DeVante Parker has 37.5 percent of the Miami receiving yardage, the highest share of team yardage for a team outside of Antonio Brown (40.5 percent).
  • The Titans rank 31st in receptions allowed, 27th in yardage allowed and 32nd in touchdowns allowed to opposing wide receivers.
  • 44 percent of Marcus Mariota's fantasy output has come from rushing. That mark was 18.1 percent in 2016.
  • Jay Ajayi has been a top-20 back in just four of his past 11 games and a top-12 scorer in just one of those games

 

Trust: DeVante Parker (the Titans have been victimized on the boundaries all season, allowing a WR1 in every game this season)

 

Bust: DeMarco Murray (he’s finished higher than RB36 just once while averaging 34 percent of the team rushing attempts Since Week 1 while Miami has been hurt in the passing game only by backs so far), Derrick Henry (despite Murray’s slide, Henry has been higher than RB38 just once and has just once receptions all season), Eric Decker (he just can’t be put into lineups –or even rostered—until we get something useful), Matt Cassel (he's started and finished nine games over the past three years, finihsing higher than QB18 just once in those contests)

 

Reasonable Return:  Delanie Walker (he has four or fewer catches in three straight games, but still has 21.7 percent of the team targets, which ranks third for all tight ends), Rishard Matthews (both he and Walker will get downgrades on their ceilings if Matt Cassel is the starter, but Miami has allowed the leading target wideout in each offense they’ve faced to be a top-20 scorer), Jay Cutler (no one is going to play him based on the past two weeks and for good reason, but given his matchup and quarterback layout this week, he has to be in play again facing a defense that has allowed over 30 fantasy points to passers the past two weeks and 18 or more points to three quarterbacks. The rub for a matchup-driven breakout like Cam had a week ago is that Cutler needs Mariota to play so Miami doesn’t nurse him through the game), Jarvis Landry (this sets up as a game for Parker to hit big, but Landry is still in play and has at least six catches in each game), Jay Ajayi (I would treat Ajayi as an RB2 going forward since Miami has consistently played behind on the scoreboard and Ajayi has two or fewer catches in eight of his previous 11 games, which is why his floor is lower than most workhorse runners. If Mariota sits, then Miami should be able to keep Ajayi active in their first home game of the season, but Tennessee has yet to allow a rusher to hit 80 yards on the ground)

 

Cardinals @ Eagles 


ArizonaRank@PhiladelphiaRank
6.5   Spread -6.5  
19.3   Implied Total 25.8  
71.5 1 Plays/Gm 70.2 2
65.8 26 Opp. Plays/Gm 57.2 3
30.1% 32 Rush% 43.4% 14
69.9% 1 Pass% 56.6% 19
41.4% 15 Opp. Rush % 28.8% 1
58.6% 18 Opp. Pass % 71.2% 32

 

  • Philadelphia is allowing 29.4 passing yards per drive (29th) while Palmer averages 26.2 yards per drive, seventh among quarterbacks to start every game this season.
  • 80.1 percent of the yardage gained against the Eagles has come from passing, the second-highest rate in the league.
  • Just 16.3 percent of Arizona's offensive yardage has come from rushing, the lowest rate in the league.
  • Arizona running backs have just two runs of 10 or more yards on the season, the fewest in the league.
  • Per Pro Football Focus, Andre Ellington has run 101 pass routes over the past three weeks, the most of all running backs in the NFL. Over that span, Ellington leads all backs in targets (22), receptions (14) and is second in receiving yards (145).
  • Carson Palmer leads the league in red zone pass attempts (32) but is tied for 21st in red zone passing touchdowns with three.
  • The Cardinals have allowed four or more sacks in three straight games, their longest streak since 2012.
  • Philadelphia's 572 rushing yards (fourth per game in the NFL) are the most they've had through four games since 2013.
  • The Cardinals are only one of two teams (Denver) yet to allow 100-yards rushing to any team this season.
  • Zach Ertz averages 7.3 receptions for 85.4 yards on 10 targets per game over his past nine games played dating back to last year.

 

Trust: Zach Ertz (he’s been a top-10 scorer in every game no matter the matchup and has eight or more targets in every game). Larry Fitzgerald (his targets have bounced around, but still has 13 or more points in three of his games while the Eagles have allowed four top-10 scoring wide receivers over the past two weeks and over 130 yards to primary slot options in each of those games)

 

Bust: Chris Johnson (his 36 carries are the most in the league without a red zone rushing attempt), Alshon Jeffery (he’s finished higher than WR30 just once as his tour of incredibly tough assignments continues versus Patrick Peterson), Carson Wentz (he’s slowed down the past two weeks with weeks in the bottom half of scoring after passing for over 300-yards in each of the first two weeks because his only reliable receiver has been Ertz as Jeffery keeps locking up with high-caliber corners, something that should continue this week)

 

Reasonable Return: Carson Palmer (he’s yet to crash his ceiling since the touchdowns remain elusive, and the offensive line is a major issue, but he’s passed for over 300-yards in each of the past three weeks while the Eagles have allowed 19.5 points per game to passers in each of the past three weeks), Jaron Brown (he is second in the league in routes run on the season and tied for eighth in the league with 29 targets over the past three weeks but his high volume weeks have coincided with Fitzgerald's down weeks and this sets up to be a Fitz game on paper), John Brown (he returned to play 62 percent of the snaps and received seven targets off injury while there are worse matchups to chase volume with the upside Brown brings), Andre Ellington (the Eagles have allowed just one running back to catch four passes in a game so far, but the Cardinals can’t and won’t run in this game, still leaving Ellington in play as a flex option),LeGarrette Blount (the matchup is much tougher this week to solely chase rushing output as Arizona is allowing just 2.9 yards per carry to opposing backs, but with Smallwood out, the Eagles will have to keep feeding him touches)

 

Ravens @ Raiders


BaltimoreRank@OaklandRank
2.5   Spread -2.5  
18.8   Implied Total 21.3  
62.5 14 Plays/Gm 54.8 32
66.2 28 Opp. Plays/Gm 60.8 10
45.6% 10 Rush% 38.4% 23
54.4% 23 Pass% 61.6% 10
45.3% 22 Opp. Rush % 46.1% 27
54.7% 11 Opp. Pass % 53.9% 6

 

  • With Brandon Williams sidelined the past two weeks, Baltimore has allowed 339 rushing yards (30th) on 77 attempts (4.4 YPC) and three rushing scores after allowing 170 rushing yards on 43 carries (3.9 YPC) with no touchdowns the first two weeks of the year.
  • Just 24.4 percent (11-of-45) of Marshawn Lynch's rushing attempts have gained at least five yards, which ranks 44th of 47 players with at least 25 carries on the season.
  • Amari Cooper's 3.55 yards per target ranks last out of 55 wide receivers with at least 20 targets on the season. His 38.7 percent catch rate ranks 54th, ahead of only Kenny Britt (34.8 percent).
  • Cooper's 3.55 yards per targets are the lowest for a wide receiver with 30 or more targets through four weeks since Greg Little (2.44 YPT) in 2013.
  • Cooper has 24.6 of the Oakland targets, but just 12.8 percent of their receiving yards, the largest gap from target to yardage rate for all wide receivers.
  • Just 5.9 percent of Joe Flacco's passing yardage has come on throws 15 yards or further downfield, the lowest rate in the league. League average outside of Flacco is 31.3 percent.
  • Flacco has now thrown an interception in 10 straight games, the longest streak since John Skelton (12 games) from 2011-2012.
  • Ben Watson has been targeted on 23.4 percent of his routes, the second-highest rate for all tight ends after Zach Ertz (23.5 percent).

 

Bust: Amari Cooper/Michael Crabtree (EJ Manuel is competent enough to get these guys looks, but Baltimore has shut down feature wideouts, allowing the fourth-fewest points to the position including near-empty weeks to A.J. Green and Antonio Brown), Joe Flacco (his start has been atrocious and while the matchup is fantastic, with Derek Carr now out, it sets up to be a situation like last week when we were targeting Trevor Siemian versus the Raiders. In games where they don’t force mid-level teams to score points and allow them to have balanced game script, the matchup isn’t nearly as good to carry fantasy performance on its own), Alex Collins (even with Collins coming on, you’re still chasing as he hasn’t turned in a usable fantasy game yet and if he keeps fumbling, will have his opportunities halted), Jeremy Maclin/Mike Wallace (you can take a swing if you really need a bye-week fill in, but until we get some consistent usage from either, it’s hard to roll them out. And for as much passing yardage the Raiders have surrendered, they’ve allowed more than 12 points to just one wide receiver), Marshawn Lynch (the Raiders should be forced to balance out their offense and lean on the run while Baltimore has been leaky against the run the past two weeks, but also faced immense volume those weeks as each game script got away, something that the Raiders are going to struggle to do here), EJ Manuel (this is the best supporting cast Manuel has ever had, but this is still a tough spot against a defense that has allowed more than 10.5 points to just one quarterback on the season), Jared Cook (outside of Marcedes Lewis’ one game deal with the devil, the Ravens have been better than bulk stats against the position, allowing four or fewer receptions to every to every tight end and just Lewis and Seth DeValve to go over 40 receiving yards)

 

Reasonable Return: Ben Watson (there’s a marginal ceiling here, but he’s being targeted when on the field and the Raiders have allowed a top-7 scoring tight end to every team except the Jets without Austin Seferian-Jenkins active), Buck Allen (his touches have dropped in every game from the week prior and has been all but phased out of the rushing game, but still has five catches in each of the past three games if desperate for a flex)

 

Seahawks @ Rams

 

SeattleRank@LA RamsRank
2.5   Spread -2.5  
22.3   Implied Total 24.8  
65.2 7 Plays/Gm 60.2 24
61.5 12 Opp. Plays/Gm 64.0 18
42.2% 18 Rush% 49.0% 3
57.9% 15 Pass% 51.0% 30
43.5% 20 Opp. Rush % 48.1% 31
56.5% 13 Opp. Pass % 52.0% 2

 

  • The 142 points scored by the Rams are the second-most scored in franchise history through four weeks (160 points in 2000).
  • Seattle has lost three consecutive games to the Rams on the road and four of the five games at the Rams with Russell Wilson at quarterback.
  • Opponents have run just 15 offensive plays in the red zone (6.1 percent) against Seattle this season, the fewest in the league this season.
  • Opponents have run 18.4 percent (47 plays total) of their plays in the red zone versus the Rams, the highest rate in the league.
  • The Rams have punted on just 31 percent of their possessions, best rate in the league. Their opponents have punted on just 31.3 percent of their possessions, the lowest rate in the league.
  • Jared Goff leads the league in yards per completion (13.7 yards).
  • The Rams are allowing 151.5 rushing yards per game, 30th in the league and are allowing 23 rushing points per game to opposing running backs, the most in the league.
  • 23.9 percent of Russell Wilson's fantasy output has stemmed from rushing (sixth among quarterbacks) after just 11.9 percent of his scoring in 2016 came from the ground (18th).

 

Trust: Todd Gurley (he’s being used in the same capacity that we saw from David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell a year ago and the Seahawks have allowed 5.1 yards per carry to opposing backs, 29th in the league), Russell Wilson (he’s gotten going the past two weeks while the matchups have been ripe and the Rams are allowing 7.8 yards per pass attempt, 25th in the league)

 

Bust: Jared Goff (as good as Goff and his matchups have been, he’s been a QB1 in just one week. He also is eighth in passing yards per drive, but 21st completions and 23rd in pass attempts per possession, which suggests that some recoil is bound to occur in yards per attempt, something that may take shape versus a Seattle team allowing 6.1 yards per attempt, sixth in the league), Sammy Watkins (outside of Week 3, the consistent targets haven’t been there, with Watkins averaging just 10 percent of the team looks outside of that game), Jimmy Graham (he’s slowly coming around with double-digit points in each of the past two weeks, but the Rams have yet to allow a TE1 and have allowed just three since the start of last season), SEA RBs (this matchup is strong to exploit if you have strong conviction in a player getting a lot of work or just have to throw a dart with bye weeks, but I just be guessing if I told you who lead the team in touches and J.D. McKissic may not rear his head into the picture given how he popped on Sunday Night), Paul Richardson (while it’s hard to say he’ll underperform since he’s been so steady, he’s been steadily meandering, closing as the WR40, WR40, WR41 and WR38 through four weeks), Robert Woods (he has 78 combined yards outside of his one game with 108 versus the 49ers)

 

Reasonable Return: Cooper Kupp (the Ram’s targets have been spread out overall, but he’s the only Rams’ receiver to have at least 19 percent of the team targets in three games this year), Doug Baldwin (his injury forced him to play just 68 percent of the snaps last week and saw just three targets, so make sure he’s putting in a full week of practice this week), Tyler Lockett (his targets haven’t been as consistent as Richardson’s, but he’s shown to be the player of the two that can score more points given in a week)

 


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Rich Hribar is a husband, father, sports meteorologist and a slave to statistics. A lifelong sports fan and fantasy gamer. You can find him on Twitter @LordReebs.
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