Justin Bailey

Targets and Touches

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Week 4 AFC Targets/Touches

Thursday, October 5, 2017


Targets and Touches will only have players’ six most recent games, regardless of whether they were active or on a bye. The data will be in descending order of games played. I also decided to add carries inside the five-yard line for running backs rather than just red zone carries. Carries inside the five are more valuable overall as the average touchdown rate over the last 10 years from within five yards is 39 percent, with a substantial drop from further out.

 

All targets and touches data is compiled from Pro Football Reference. Cornerback data is sourced via Pro Football Focus. The NFC will be released on Tuesdays, while the AFC is published on Wednesday.

 

The goal of these articles is to give you an idea of what the usage looks like for each player within their offenses, allowing you to spot any positive or negative trends regarding how a player is being used, and most importantly — letting the numbers tell the story.

 

Note: This data will stick to mainly fantasy-relevant players.  

 

Baltimore Ravens

 

Targets: Jeremy Maclin (4, 5, 5, 6), Javorius Allen (1, 6, 6, 6), Mike Wallace (1, 3, 5, 10), Benjamin Watson (1, 8, 3, 6), Breshad Perriman (4, 4, 1, 4), Terrance West (1, 2, 1, 0), Danny Woodhead (3, 0, 0, 0), Alex Collins (0, 0, 0, 2)

 

Carries: Javorius Allen (21, 14, 8, 2), Terrance West (19, 8, 6, 4), Alex Collins (0, 7, 9, 9), Danny Woodhead (1, 0, 0, 0), Mike Wallace (0, 0, 1, 0)

 

RZ Targets: Breshad Perriman (2, 0, 0, 1), Javorius Allen (1, 2, 0, 0), Mike Wallace (0, 0, 0, 3), Jeremy Maclin (1, 1, 0, 0), Benjamin Watson (0, 0, 1, 0), Danny Woodhead (1, 0, 0, 0)

 

RZ Carries: Javorius Allen (1, 2, 1, 0), Terrance West (2, 2, 0, 0), Danny Woodhead (1, 0, 0, 0)

 

Inside 5 Carries: Terrance West (1, 1, 0, 0), Javorius Allen (0, 0, 1, 0)

 

Coverage Data (via PFF): Brandon Carr (2-15-0, 3-37-0, 1-35-0, 2-15-0), Jimmy Smith (3-31-0, 1-8-0, 1-13-0, 1-14-0), Lardarius Webb (1-14-0, 5-117-0, 2-20-0, 2-21-0), Marlon Humphrey (0, 1-3-0, 0, 4-56-0)

 

Observations: Terrance West continues to be an afterthought in this offense after the Ravens wanted to get Alex Collins more involved. West played the fewest snaps among the running backs with just 16 percent. Collins played 17 snaps (25 percent), but when he was on the field, they used him. Of his 19 snaps, he saw nine carries and two targets. It’s difficult to be enthused about any of the running backs on the Ravens. That said, Buck Allen holds the most value in PPR leagues as he is tied for the team-lead in targets over the last three weeks.

 

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Buffalo Bills

 

Targets: Charles Clay (9, 3, 6, 7), LeSean McCoy (6, 7, 7, 3), Zay Jones (4, 6, 2, 5), Jordan Matthews (3, 3, 5, 2), Andre Holmes (1, 4, 2, 1), Kaelin Clay (0, 0, 2, 2), Mike Tolbert (1, 1, 1, 0)

 

Carries: LeSean McCoy (22, 12, 14, 20), Mike Tolbert (12, 3, 11, 8)

 

RZ Targets: Charles Clay (3, 0, 2, 0), Andre Holmes (1, 0, 1, 1), Jordan Matthews (0, 0, 0, 2), Mike Tolbert (0, 0, 1, 0), Zay Jones (1, 0, 0, 0)

 

RZ Carries: LeSean McCoy (5, 0, 4, 2), Mike Tolbert (2, 0, 3, 1), Patrick DiMarco (0, 0, 0, 1)

 

Inside 5 Carries: Mike Tolbert (2, 0, 1, 0), LeSean McCoy (1, 0, 0, 1)

 

Coverage Data (via PFF): E.J. Gaines (2-5-0, 4-35-0, 4-39-0, 1-16-0), Leonard Johnson (5-39-0, 5-54-0, 1--1-0, 3-26-0), Shareece Wright (1-2-0, 0, 0, 2-15-0), Tre'Davious White (2-30-0, 3-49-0, 4-65-0, 4-18-0)

 

Observations: This offense filters through Charles Clay and LeSean McCoy, as they own 50 percent of the Bills’ offensive looks. Clay is currently the TE3 in PPR leagues this season, with 15 or more points in three of his four starts. McCoy and Clay are the only startable candidates on this team on a weekly basis.

 

Cincinnati Bengals

 

Targets: A.J. Green (10, 8, 13, 7), Brandon LaFell (5, 7, 2, 3), Giovani Bernard (2, 4, 2, 4), Tyler Kroft (1, 0, 4, 7), Joe Mixon (3, 1, 3, 4), Tyler Eifert (1, 4, 0, 0), Jeremy Hill (1, 1, 1, 1)

 

Carries: Joe Mixon (8, 9, 18, 17), Jeremy Hill (6, 6, 7, 6), Giovani Bernard (7, 5, 3, 3), John Ross (0, 1, 0, 0)

 

RZ Targets: A.J. Green (2, 0, 1, 1), Brandon LaFell (2, 2, 0, 0), Tyler Kroft (0, 0, 0, 2), Giovani Bernard (0, 0, 1, 0), Joe Mixon (0, 0, 0, 1), Tyler Eifert (0, 1, 0, 0)

 

RZ Carries: Jeremy Hill (1, 3, 3, 2), Giovani Bernard (2, 1, 0, 0), Joe Mixon (0, 0, 2, 1)

 

Inside 5 Carries: Joe Mixon (0, 0, 0, 1)

 

Coverage Data (via PFF): Adam Jones (0, 4-34-0, 2-7-0, 0), Darqueze Dennard (1-48-1, 2-16-0, 5-24-0, 2-9-0), Dre Kirkpatrick (0, 2-13-0, 6-92-2, 2-12-0), Keivarae Russell (0, 0, 0, 4-56-0), William Jackson (3-25-0, 0, 2-45-0, 3-51-0)

 

Observations: Joe Mixon led the trio of running backs in snaps and touches once again, but he had little to show for it as he ran for 29 yards on 17 carries and turned his four receptions into 19 yards. It was encouraging Mixon received the lone carry from inside the five-yard line and saw four total red zone looks of their 12 offensive plays ran inside the 20. The other Tyler (Kroft) scored two touchdowns and tied with A.J. Green for the team lead with seven targets. That said, Kroft has a poor matchup against the Bills in Week 5.

 

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Cleveland Browns

 

Targets: Duke Johnson (5, 6, 7, 10), Kenny Britt (3, 2, 10, 8), Rashard Higgins (0, 11, 6, 4), Ricardo Louis (3, 2, 6, 9), Seth DeValve (5, 4, 5, 4), Corey Coleman (6, 7, 0, 0), David Njoku (2, 4, 4, 2), Isaiah Crowell (2, 1, 3, 2)

 

Carries: Isaiah Crowell (17, 10, 12, 7), Duke Johnson (0, 4, 2, 4), Matt Dayes (3, 0, 0, 1), Rashard Higgins (0, 1, 0, 0)

 

RZ Targets: Kenny Britt (0, 0, 1, 2), Corey Coleman (1, 1, 0, 0), David Njoku (1, 0, 1, 0), Ricardo Louis (1, 0, 0, 1), Seth DeValve (0, 1, 0, 1)

 

RZ Carries: Duke Johnson (0, 1, 1, 2), Isaiah Crowell (2, 0, 0, 0)

 

Inside 5 Carries: Duke Johnson (0, 0, 0, 2), Isaiah Crowell (1, 0, 0, 0)

 

Coverage Data (via PFF): Briean Boddy-Calhoun (0, 1-2-1, 0, 1-9-0), Jamar Taylor (7-63-0, 4-27-0, 6-157-1, 1-21-0), Jason McCourty (2-54-0, 1-7-0, 5-51-0, 4-40-0)

 

Observations: Through four weeks, Duke Johnson leads the Browns with 28 targets. He came through with another 10 targets, and nine receptions in their game against the Bengals as they trailed the majority of the game. Of Johnson’s 163 snaps, he has spent 101 of them running a pass route, the seventh-most pass routes among running backs (PFF.) Johnson is currently the RB16 in PPR leagues, with double-digit fantasy points in three of his last four games, including 20-plus in his last two. The other pass-catchers on the Browns don’t hold much standalone value.

 

Denver Broncos

 

Targets: Emmanuel Sanders (6, 8, 15, 5), Demaryius Thomas (8, 8, 9, 5), Bennie Fowler (4, 3, 7, 2), A.J. Derby (3, 1, 2, 6), C.J. Anderson (3, 3, 2, 4), Virgil Green (1, 3, 3, 0), Jamaal Charles (1, 1, 1, 1)

 

Carries: C.J. Anderson (20, 25, 8, 20), Jamaal Charles (10, 9, 9, 5)

 

RZ Targets: C.J. Anderson (1, 2, 1, 2), Emmanuel Sanders (1, 3, 0, 2), Bennie Fowler (2, 1, 1, 0), Demaryius Thomas (0, 0, 1, 1), Virgil Green (0, 2, 0, 0)

 

RZ Carries: C.J. Anderson (5, 5, 1, 2), Jamaal Charles (4, 1, 2, 2)

 

Inside 5 Carries: C.J. Anderson (3, 1, 0, 0), Jamaal Charles (2, 0, 0, 0)

 

Coverage Data (via PFF): Aqib Talib (4-26-0, 4-28-1, 0, 2-12-0), Bradley Roby (5-77-1, 6-59-0, 2-6-1, 2-16-0), Chris Harris Jr. (2-8-1, 3-24-0, 2-53-0, 3-33-0)

 

Observations: With Trevor Siemian attempting just 26 passes, there was little target share to go around. This was the first game this season that Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas hadn’t seen at least five targets, although, they still combined for 38 percent of the Broncos’ target share. Most people were in a tizzy after Jamaal Charles out-carried C.J. Anderson 9:8 in their Week 3 matchup against the Bills, but as I noted there shouldn’t be cause for concern as Anderson out-snapped him 70 percent to 30. This week, that trend continued as Anderson played 69 percent of the snaps to 17 percent for Charles. Anderson out-touched Charles 24:6.


Houston Texans

 

Targets: DeAndre Hopkins (16, 13, 8, 12), Bruce Ellington (2, 0, 7, 4), Ryan Griffin (1, 0, 6, 5), Lamar Miller (2, 3, 1, 5), Will Fuller (0, 0, 0, 6), D'Onta Foreman (0, 0, 3, 0)

 

Carries: Lamar Miller (17, 18, 14, 19), D'Onta Foreman (1, 12, 8, 13), Bruce Ellington (0, 0, 1, 1), Will Fuller (0, 0, 0, 1)

 

RZ Targets: DeAndre Hopkins (3, 0, 0, 2), Ryan Griffin (0, 0, 2, 1), Will Fuller (0, 0, 0, 2), Bruce Ellington (1, 0, 0, 0), D'Onta Foreman (0, 0, 1, 0), Lamar Miller (0, 0, 0, 1)

 

RZ Carries: D'Onta Foreman (0, 4, 2, 1), Lamar Miller (0, 0, 2, 5)

 

Inside 5 Carries: Lamar Miller (0, 0, 0, 2)

 

Coverage Data (via PFF): Eddie Pleasant (0, 1-6-0, 2-35-0, 0), Johnathan Joseph (0, 1-22-0, 2-26-1, 1-28-0), Johnthan Banks (0, 0, 3-89-1, 2-17-0), Kareem Jackson (2-24-0, 4-112-0, 3-37-0, 3-27-0), Kevin Johnson (3-46-0, 5-24-0, 0, 0)

 

Observations: DeAndre Hopkins’ stellar target share continues, as he leads the NFL with 49 targets through four weeks. Hopkins owns 39 percent of the total target share from the Texans. With Deshaun Watson’s improvement in each game this season, Hopkins’ floor/ceiling will continue to rise. In his first game back from his broken collarbone, Will Fuller played 80 percent of the snaps, finished second on the team in targets (six), and scored two touchdowns. With Hopkins seeing such a large portion of the usage, it will be hard to trust the other pass-catchers in this offense on a weekly basis.

 

Indianapolis Colts


Targets: T.Y. Hilton (7, 6, 9, 6), Jack Doyle (3, 8, 5, 7), Donte Moncrief (4, 8, 3, 3), Kamar Aiken (2, 9, 1, 5), Frank Gore (1, 2, 1, 3), Robert Turbin (1, 1, 2, 0), Marlon Mack (1, 1, 0, 0)


Carries: Frank Gore (10, 14, 25, 12), Marlon Mack (10, 6, 0, 0), Robert Turbin (2, 3, 5, 6)


RZ Targets: T.Y. Hilton (1, 2, 2, 0), Donte Moncrief (1, 1, 0, 1), Jack Doyle (0, 0, 1, 1), Frank Gore (0, 1, 0, 0)


RZ Carries: Frank Gore (0, 4, 3, 0), Robert Turbin (1, 1, 0, 3), Marlon Mack (3, 0, 0, 0)


Inside 5 Carries: Marlon Mack (3, 0, 0, 0), Robert Turbin (1, 0, 0, 2), Frank Gore (0, 1, 1, 0)


Coverage Data (via PFF): Kenny Moore II (0, 2-42-0, 0, 0), Nate Hairston (1-8-0, 4-50-0, 1-1-0, 1-5-0), Rashaan Melvin (6-46-0, 3-41-0, 3-47-1, 4-28-1), Vontae Davis (0, 0, 0, 5-101-0)


Observations: Predictably, as the Colts were implied for 14.25 points in this game, they struggled to do much of anything, forcing just 18 points on the Seahawks. T.Y. Hilton and Jack Doyle are Jacoby Brissett’s favorite targets as they have 21 and 20 targets since he took over as the starter.


Jacksonville Jaguars

 

Targets: Marqise Lee (4, 12, 7, 3), Allen Hurns (4, 7, 3, 10), Leonard Fournette (3, 5, 4, 5), Keelan Cole (2, 3, 4, 6), Marcedes Lewis (2, 2, 5, 4), Chris Ivory (2, 4, 2, 3)

 

Carries: Leonard Fournette (26, 14, 17, 24), Chris Ivory (9, 6, 6, 9)

 

RZ Targets: Allen Hurns (1, 2, 2, 2), Marcedes Lewis (0, 0, 3, 2), Keelan Cole (1, 0, 1, 0), Marqise Lee (0, 0, 2, 0), Chris Ivory (0, 0, 0, 1), Leonard Fournette (0, 0, 0, 1)

 

RZ Carries: Leonard Fournette (7, 1, 4, 0), Chris Ivory (1, 0, 1, 1)

 

Inside 5 Carries: Leonard Fournette (4, 1, 2, 0)

 

Coverage Data (via PFF): A.J. Bouye (3-28-0, 4-88-0, 0, 4-55-0), Aaron Colvin (2-9-0, 4-48-0, 2-15-0, 2-18-0), Jalen Ramsey (3-23-0, 0, 1-3-0, 3-16-0)


Observations: Marqise Lee and Allen Hurns seemingly switched roles on Sunday as Hurns led the Jaguars with 29 percent of their target share. Leonard Fournette is one of three running backs to have over 80 carries this season. He (81), Todd Gurley (86) and Le’Veon Bell (87) are the only three running backs to reach that threshold. Fournette has also been steadily involved in the passing game as he ranks third in target share among Jacksonville pass-catchers.



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Justin Bailey has been working with Rotoworld since 2015. His stat-forward analysis can also be found on FantasyLabs and 4for4. Follow him on Twitter - @justinbailey32.
Email :Justin Bailey



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