Justin Bailey

Targets and Touches

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Week 4 AFC Targets/Touches

Thursday, October 5, 2017


Kansas City Chiefs


Targets: Tyreek Hill (8, 6, 8, 6), Travis Kelce (7, 10, 1, 8), Albert Wilson (5, 3, 4, 4), Chris Conley (4, 4, 1, 4), Kareem Hunt (5, 3, 1, 4), Charcandrick West (1, 0, 2, 5)


Carries: Kareem Hunt (17, 13, 17, 21), Tyreek Hill (2, 1, 3, 0), Charcandrick West (1, 0, 2, 1), Albert Wilson (0, 1, 1, 1), Travis Kelce (1, 0, 0, 1)


RZ Targets: Travis Kelce (1, 3, 0, 1), Albert Wilson (1, 0, 2, 1), Demetrius Harris (1, 0, 0, 1), Charcandrick West (0, 0, 0, 1), Kareem Hunt (1, 0, 0, 0), Tyreek Hill (0, 0, 1, 0)


RZ Carries: Kareem Hunt (2, 3, 3, 4)


Inside 5 Carries: Kareem Hunt (1, 1, 0, 1)


Coverage Data (via PFF): Marcus Peters (0, 6-71-0, 3-20-0, 4-71-2), Phillip Gaines (3-57-0, 3-48-1, 3-30-0, 1-13-0), Terrance Mitchell (4-96-0, 5-70-0, 8-137-0, 2-17-0)


Observations: Travis Kelce was targeted eight times in this game. He now trails only Zach Ertz and Rob Gronkowski in receiving yards among tight ends this season. Tyreek Hill leads the Chiefs with 26 percent targets, and he owns 47 percent of their air yards. Kareem Hunt had yet another game of 100-plus yards from scrimmage. He’s now the No. 2 running back in PPR leagues. He’s 35 points ahead of the third-place Le’Veon Bell.


Los Angeles Chargers


Targets: Keenan Allen (10, 10, 9, 11), Tyrell Williams (7, 4, 7, 6), Travis Benjamin (4, 3, 8, 5), Melvin Gordon (6, 8, 2, 3), Antonio Gates (3, 4, 5, 5), Hunter Henry (0, 7, 0, 3), Branden Oliver (1, 0, 6, 1)


Carries: Melvin Gordon (18, 9, 17, 10), Branden Oliver (4, 3, 8, 2), Travis Benjamin (0, 0, 1, 0)


RZ Targets: Keenan Allen (1, 0, 1, 2), Antonio Gates (0, 2, 0, 1), Hunter Henry (0, 1, 0, 1), Melvin Gordon (1, 1, 0, 0), Travis Benjamin (0, 0, 0, 1), Tyrell Williams (0, 0, 0, 1)


RZ Carries: Melvin Gordon (2, 1, 2, 0)


Inside 5 Carries: Derek Watt (0, 1, 0, 0), Melvin Gordon (0, 1, 0, 0)


Coverage Data (via PFF): Casey Hayward (5-81-0, 3-43-0, 1-17-0, 2-17-0), Desmond King (0, 5-57-0, 2-16-0, 3-57-0), Trevor Williams (1-2-0, 3-41-0, 1-7-0, 2-21-0)


Observations: Tyrell Williams' 5-115-1 performance was well within his range of outcomes against a decimated Eagles secondary. Keenan Allen now has 40 targets through four games. He has almost double the target share of the next closest pass-catcher in Williams.

 

Miami Dolphins


Targets: Jarvis Landry (0, 15, 11, 7), DeVante Parker (0, 9, 10, 8), Kenny Stills (0, 5, 10, 3), Julius Thomas (0, 3, 5, 4), Jay Ajayi (0, 2, 3, 1), Kenyan Drake (0, 0, 2, 3),


Carries: Jay Ajayi (0, 28, 11, 12), Jarvis Landry (0, 1, 0, 0)


RZ Targets: Jarvis Landry (0, 3, 0, 0), DeVante Parker (0, 1, 1, 0), Kenny Stills (0, 1, 1, 0), Julius Thomas (0, 0, 0, 1)


RZ Carries: Jay Ajayi (0, 4, 0, 0)


Inside 5 Carries: None


Coverage Data (via PFF): Alterraun Verner (0, 0, 1-69-1, 0), Bobby McCain (0, 1-4-0, 0, 10-97-0), Byron Maxwell (0, 3-48-0, 4-64-0, 0), Cordrea Tankersley (0, 0, 0, 6-36-1), Xavien Howard (0, 10-87-0, 2-14-0, 4-43-0)


Observations: While Jarvis Landry is out-targeting DeVante Parker 33:27 this season, Parker is out-scoring Landry 47:40. Parker boasts the most upside among these two as he owns a 15.6 aDOT and 43 percent of their air yards. Given Landry’s average depth of target (aDOT) is 5.0, it’s no surprise he has a Receiver Air Conversion Ratio (RACR) of 1.01, almost double of Parker’s 0.55.

 

New England Patriots


Targets: Rob Gronkowski (6, 9, 10, 5), Chris Hogan (5, 6, 6, 9), James White (5, 8, 1, 12), Brandin Cooks (7, 4, 7, 6), Danny Amendola (7, 0, 5, 7), Rex Burkhead (3, 4, 0, 0), Dion Lewis (0, 1, 3, 1)


Carries: Mike Gillislee (15, 18, 12, 12), James White (10, 2, 5, 1), Dion Lewis (2, 4, 2, 4), Rex Burkhead (3, 2, 0, 0), Brandin Cooks (0, 2, 0, 1), Chris Hogan (3, 0, 0, 0)


RZ Targets: Chris Hogan (0, 3, 2, 3), Rob Gronkowski (2, 1, 2, 1), Danny Amendola (1, 0, 0, 2), James White (0, 1, 0, 1), Rex Burkhead (1, 1, 0, 0), Dion Lewis (0, 0, 0, 1),


RZ Carries: Mike Gillislee (8, 5, 1, 2), James White (6, 0, 0, 0), Dion Lewis (0, 1, 0, 3), Brandin Cooks (0, 0, 0, 1), Rex Burkhead (1, 0, 0, 0)


Inside 5 Carries: Mike Gillislee (4, 1, 0, 1), James White (1, 0, 0, 0)


Coverage Data (via PFF): Eric Rowe (3-45-0, 3-70-0, 0, 3-35-0), Jonathan Jones (0, 4-62-0, 5-69-1, 1-3-0), Jordan Richards (0, 1-9-0, 0, 0), Malcolm Butler (5-29-0, 4-40-1, 2-10-0, 5-55-1), Stephon Gilmore (1-4-0, 2-40-0, 4-54-0, 2-53-1)


Observations: The Patriots’ offense continues to be sporadic at times. James White saw one target in Week 3, then led the team with 12 targets in Week 4. Through four weeks, Mike Gillislee has yet to see a single target, which isn’t a surprise as he is the clear-cut early-down back. Gillislee leads them with 55 percent of their market share of carries, and a whopping 56 percent of market share of opportunities in the red zone. He’s tied with Devonta Freeman for a league-high four touchdowns from inside the five-yard line.

 

New York Jets


Targets: Jermaine Kearse (9, 5, 3, 7), Robby Anderson (8, 4, 6, 6), Bilal Powell (6, 2, 0, 5), Jeremy Kerley (0, 3, 5, 5), Austin Seferian-Jenkins (0, 0, 6, 4), Matt Forte (5, 4, 0, 0), ArDarius Stewart (5, 0, 1, 0), Elijah McGuire (0, 2, 0, 2)


Carries: Bilal Powell (7, 6, 15, 21), Elijah McGuire (0, 6, 7, 10), Matt Forte (6, 9, 8, 0)


RZ Targets: Bilal Powell (1, 1, 0, 1), Jermaine Kearse (1, 1, 0, 1), ArDarius Stewart (1, 0, 0, 0), Austin Seferian-Jenkins (0, 0, 1, 0), Jeremy Kerley (0, 0, 1, 0), Robby Anderson (0, 1, 0, 0)


RZ Carries: Bilal Powell (0, 0, 2, 1), Elijah McGuire (0, 0, 1, 0), Matt Forte (0, 0, 1, 0)


Inside 5 Carries: Bilal Powell (0, 0, 2, 0)


Coverage Data (via PFF): Buster Skrine (1-47-0, 2-3-1, 6-65-0, 4-57-0), Darryl Roberts (0, 1-6-0, 6-51-1, 1-10-0), Juston Burris (0, 5-49-2, 3-49-0, 0), Morris Claiborne (1-21-0, 3-29-0, 2-21-0, 0)


Observations: Despite what people said, the split between Bilal Powell and Elijah McGuire wasn’t nearly as large as people think. McGuire played just 19 snaps, and people probably wouldn’t have noticed he was receiving carries if he didn’t bust off a 69-yard touchdown run. Powell out-snapped him 46:19 and out-touched him 25:12.

 

Oakland Raiders


Targets: Amari Cooper (13, 5, 5, 8), Jared Cook (5, 6, 6, 8), Michael Crabtree (7, 6, 3, 0), DeAndre Washington (2, 3, 6, 1), Seth Roberts (1, 1, 5, 5), Cordarrelle Patterson (1, 1, 2, 6), Marshawn Lynch (2, 2, 1, 1), Jalen Richard (1, 2, 1, 1)


Carries: Marshawn Lynch (18, 12, 6, 9), Jalen Richard (5, 6, 2, 2), DeAndre Washington (3, 6, 1, 1), Cordarrelle Patterson (1, 3, 2, 1), Jamize Olawale (0, 0, 0, 1)


RZ Targets: Amari Cooper (4, 0, 1, 1), Jared Cook (0, 1, 1, 2), Cordarrelle Patterson (1, 1, 1, 0), DeAndre Washington (0, 2, 0, 0), Michael Crabtree (0, 2, 0, 0), Seth Roberts (1, 1, 0, 0)


RZ Carries: Marshawn Lynch (3, 3, 0, 0), Jalen Richard (0, 2, 0, 0), Cordarrelle Patterson (0, 0, 1, 0)


Inside 5 Carries: Marshawn Lynch (2, 3, 0, 0)


Coverage Data (via PFF): David Amerson (2-34-0, 4-62-2, 4-80-1, 2-35-0), Dexter McDonald (1-9-0, 0, 0, 1-1-0), Gareon Conley (0, 1-8-0, 3-27-0, 0), Sean Smith (2-4-0, 0, 2-44-1, 4-35-0), T.J. Carrie (3-19-0, 5-38-0, 6-59-0, 1-10-0)


Observations: With Derek Carr expected to miss 2-6 weeks, this offense is going to take a hit with E.J. Manuel behind center — Especially since they take on the Ravens in Week 5.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers


Targets: Antonio Brown (11, 11, 14, 9), Le'Veon Bell (6, 4, 7, 6), Martavis Bryant (6, 4, 8, 5), Jesse James (8, 5, 4, 3), Juju Smith-Schuster (0, 4, 6, 4), Eli Rogers (4, 7, 0, 0)


Carries: Le'Veon Bell (10, 27, 15, 35),  Martavis Bryant (0, 1, 0, 0)


RZ Targets: Juju Smith-Schuster (0, 2, 2, 1), Antonio Brown (0, 1, 2, 1), Jesse James (3, 0, 1, 0), Le'Veon Bell (1, 0, 0, 1), Martavis Bryant (0, 0, 2, 0)


RZ Carries: Le'Veon Bell (3, 5, 4, 8)


Inside 5 Carries: Le'Veon Bell (0, 0, 1, 2)


Coverage Data (via PFF): Artie Burns (3-11-1, 3-20-0, 1-0-0, 4-30-0), Joe Haden (7-109-0, 1-24-0, 0, 5-48-0), Mike Hilton (2-12-0, 6-39-0, 1-10-0, 1-7-0), William Gay (3-16-0, 0, 0, 0)

  

Observations: Le’Veon Bell saw an insane amount of touches in this game as the Steelers had a grasp on this game the whole time. Bell saw 41 touches, which was 57 percent of the Steelers’ offensive looks. He gets to square off against a Jaguars defense in Week 5 that has allowed the fewest receiving yards per game, and the most rushing yards per game in the league. This is the definition of a funnel spot.


Tennessee Titans


Targets: Rishard Matthews (9, 5, 10, 8), Delanie Walker (9, 4, 6, 7), Eric Decker (8, 5, 5, 2), Corey Davis (10, 3, 0, 0), DeMarco Murray (2, 2, 2, 2), Taywan Taylor (2, 1, 3, 1), Derrick Henry (0, 0, 1, 0)


Carries: DeMarco Murray (12, 9, 14, 7), Derrick Henry (6, 14, 13, 6), Taywan Taylor (0, 2, 1, 1)


RZ Targets: Eric Decker (3, 0, 1, 0), Rishard Matthews (1, 2, 1, 0), Corey Davis (1, 0, 0, 0)


RZ Carries: Derrick Henry (0, 5, 1, 0), DeMarco Murray (1, 1, 0, 0), Delanie Walker (0, 1, 0, 0)


Inside 5 Carries: Delanie Walker (0, 1, 0, 0)


Coverage Data (via PFF): Adoree' Jackson (4-47-1, 4-42-0, 5-54-1, 4-42-1), Brice McCain (2-28-0, 0, 2-22-0, 2-36-0), LeShaun Sims (0, 4-42-0, 2-44-1, 6-43-1), Logan Ryan (1-19-1, 3-39-1, 6-73-0, 4-57-0)


Observations: It would be a shame for Marcus Mariota to miss their incredible matchup against the Dolphins in Week 5. He’s currently day-to-day with a hamstring injury. If Matt Cassel starts, it would be difficult to be excited about any of their offensive skill positions. Cassel threw for just 96 and two interceptions in his short stint last week. As a result, all of their pass-catchers struggled to gain much momentum. None of them had more than three receptions or was able to top 51 yards receiving. It should also be noted the Titans signed Brandon Weeden on Tuesday.



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Justin Bailey has been working with Rotoworld since 2015. His stat-forward analysis can also be found on FantasyLabs and 4for4. Follow him on Twitter - @justinbailey32.
Email :Justin Bailey



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