Rich Hribar

The Worksheet

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The NFL Week 6 Worksheet

Wednesday, October 11, 2017


It’s hard to believe that it’s Week 6 already, but here we are. After a carnage-filled Week 5, things were relatively quiet on the injury front last weekend, but with Seattle, Dallas, Cincinnati and Buffalo bye this week, owners are missing a lot of starting options again this week.

 

As for the token disclaimer, the goal of this article is to provide a top-down, statistical snapshot for each game each week, running down weekly point spreads, team totals, play calling splits, and statistical bullet points on the players and teams involved. Although we’re focusing strictly on PPR league scoring here as a baseline, there’s more than enough to spread around across formats and daily leagues. The reason we’re operating under a PPR umbrella is it allows us to cover a larger portion of the players involved in action weekly.

 

Lastly, as the author, it’s imperative that I note that this is NOT a start/sit column, rather an expectations column. The labels for each subset of players for each game are simply a vehicle for those expectations and have a different context for each player that you can find at the end of the column. I encourage that you use the game by game tables and data points here in conjunction with the Start/Sit column posted weekly by Nick Mensio, Pat Daugherty’s rankings in the Goal Line Stand, Evan Silva’s Matchup’s column, Ray Summerlin's Waiver Wired and most importantly, your own information and thought process. Remember, you control your own team. With that out of the way, let’s hit all the Week 6 games with a PPR light…

 

Editor's Note: Looking for a weekly edge in your fantasy leagues? Get the Rotoworld Season Pass for projections, early-week rankings, WR & RB reports, exclusive columns and chats with our experts and much more for just $19.99.

 

 

Eagles @ Panthers


PhiladelphiaRank@CarolinaRank
3.5   Spread -3.5  
21.3   Implied Total 24.8  
27.4 7 Points/Gm 21.0 18
19.8 13 Points All. /Gm 18.8 9
69.0 2 Plays/Gm 62.4 22
57.8 2 Opp. Plays/Gm 57.0 1
44.9% 9 Rush% 46.5% 8
55.1% 24 Pass% 53.5% 25
27.7% 1 Opp. Rush % 34.7% 2
72.3% 32 Opp. Pass % 65.3% 31

 

  • Philadelphia (16.0) and Carolina (19.8) face the fewest rushing attempts per game.
  • The Eagles have led for 58.8 percent of their offensive plays, the highest rate in the league. Carolina has led for 53.2 percent, second in the league.
  • Cam Newton has thrown for 300-yards in back to back games for the first time since his first two career games in 2011.
  • The Eagles allow 206.6 receiving yards per game to opposing wide receiving units, 31st in the league.
  • Devin Funchess was targeted on a season-high 30.8 percent of his routes in Week 5. He is the only wide receiver that has had his targets per route rate rise in every game this season.
  • Zach Ertz leads all tight ends in target market share (27.1 percent) with the highest share of his team's receptions (29.1 percent) and receiving yardage (28.4 percent).
  • Carolina has allowed just 25 percent of throws 15 yards or deeper (6-of-24) to be completed, the lowest rate in the league.
  • The Eagles have allowed just 26.9 percent (7-of-26) of those throws to be completed, second in the league behind Carolina.

 

Trust: Cam Newton (after a rough open to the season, he’s found his groove with QB2 and QB5 weeks and has done so throwing the football. The Eagles have allowed a top-12 scoring quarterback in four straight games), Zach Ertz (the league’s most consistent tight end facing a defense that has allowed the TE9 and TE7 over the past two weeks), Devin Funchess (he has 34 targets over the past four games while turning in no game lower than a WR4 to go along with red zone targets over his past two games)

 

Bust: Jonathan Stewart (his 7.4 points last week were the most he’s had since Week 1 while the Eagles have only allowed one rusher to clear 35 yards on the ground), LeGarrette Blount (his workload stayed the same even with the absence of Wendell Smallwood and playing in a blowout, while Carolina has yet to allow a rusher to hit 60 yards on the season), Nelson Agholor (he’s scored in three games already after scoring three times through two years, but hasn’t had more than five targets in a game since Week 1), Ed Dickson (he had two 50-yard receptions last week after having just one over his previous seven seasons and five catches after having six over his rpevious three games, Dickson feels like the tight end unicorn of the week, potentitally following the footsteps of Marcedes Lewis and Tyler Kroft of recent weeks past)

 

Reasonable Return: Kelvin Benjamin (he’s been WR22 or higher in each of his past three full games), Christian McCaffrey (he’s been held to fewer than 50 yards from scrimmage in three of his past four games and had a season-low eight touches last week, but has yet to have a game finishing lower than a flex option), Alshon Jeffery (he’s had a murderous slate of subpar individual matchups and while James Bradberry has started to shadow opposing receivers on the boundary, he’s not a guy to completely run away from like the previous options Jeffery has faced), Carson Wentz (coming off of his first career game with more than two touchdown passes, this isn’t a great spot on the road in a short week and the Eagles will be without Lane Johnson, but Carolina has allowed 15 or more points to opposing quarterbacks in three straight)

 

 

Bears @ Ravens

 

ChicagoRank@BaltimoreRank
7.5   Spread -7.5  
17.0   Implied Total 24.5  
15.6 30 Points/Gm 18.0 24
24.8 25 Points All. /Gm 19.4 11
61.4 26 Plays/Gm 63.0 13
60.2 7 Opp. Plays/Gm 63.8 18
43.0% 16 Rush% 48.6% 3
57.0% 17 Pass% 51.4% 30
42.9% 18 Opp. Rush % 45.5% 24
57.1% 15 Opp. Pass % 54.6% 9

 

  • Opponents are completing 17.4 passes per game versus Baltimore, the fewest in the league.
  • Over the past 10 seasons, rookie starting quarterbacks are 0-9 with just three touchdowns and 13 interceptions at Baltimore.
  • Baltimore has led by two or more possessions for 37.1 percent of their snaps, the highest in the league.
  • Baltimore has trailed by two or more possessions for 31.8 percent of their snaps, 27th in the league.
  • 45.6 percent of Buck Allen's rushing attempts (30-of-66) have come in the 4th Quarter, the highest rate in the league.
  • Chicago is allowing 4.0 red zone trips per game, 30th in the league.
  • After playing 48.9 percent of the snaps Week 1-3, Tarik Cohen has played 27.1 percent of the snaps over the past two weeks.

 

Bust: Mitchell Trubisky (the Chicago schedule and surrounding playmakers do Trubisky no favors for fantasy purposes), Tarik Cohen (until his snap counts and usage recovers, he’s not an option for lineups), CHI WRs (Kendall Wright is the only deep cut you make, but Baltimore is allowing the sixth-fewest points per game to opposing receiving units), Alex Collins (you can fish for a flex-type of a game if the script plays out and eventually his effectiveness per carry will force Baltimore to give him more touches if he can hold onto the football, but he’s yet to approach double-digit points in a game so far), Ben Watson (outside of his 8-91 against the Browns he has 10 catches for 57 yards on the season), Joe Flacco (this sets up as another week for the Ravens to nurse a lead as Flacco has single-digit points in four of five games)

 

Reasonable Return: Jordan Howard (he’s gone over 76 yards from scrimmage just once, but has at least 16 touches in four of five games to keep him RB2 territory by default), Buck Allen (his floor has been flex worthy throughout and has all the running back carries inside of the 5-yard line outside of Terrance West, who is going to be out), Jeremy Maclin/Mike Wallace (with some wide receivers on bye this week, both are unsexy options to fill-in. Wallace has been the WR11 and WR15 the past two weeks, but have had more than five targets in just one game. Maclin has been a steadier source of opportunity, but hasn’t hit 60 yards in any game so far), Zach Miller (he had a season-high 27 percent of the team targets and a TE13 week in the first game after the quarterback switch)

 

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Packers @ Vikings


Green BayRank@MinnesotaRank
-3   Spread 3  
24.5   Implied Total 21.5  
27.4 6 Points/Gm 19.8 20
22.4 20 Points All. /Gm 18.6 8
63.6 11 Plays/Gm 62.8 16
60.4 10 Opp. Plays/Gm 60.6 11
34.3% 29 Rush% 44.6% 12
65.7% 4 Pass% 55.4% 21
46.4% 29 Opp. Rush % 40.3% 13
53.6% 4 Opp. Pass % 59.7% 20

 

  • Aaron Jones played 88 percent of the team snaps Week 5.
  • Jones was the first Green Bay running back to have 100 or more rushing yards in his first start since Samkon Gado's 103 yards in 2004.
  • Jones led the league in runs of five or more yards (11) and was tied for the lead in runs of 10 or more yards in Week 5.
  • Minnesota is allowing .387 rushing points per carry to opposing backs, the second lowest rate in the league.
  • 46.2 percent of Jordy Nelson's fantasy output has come from touchdown receptions, the highest rate for all top-12 scoring wide receivers.
  • Aaron Rodgers has thrown a touchdown pass once every 57.1 passing yards the past two weeks. The average for the NFL this season one touchdown every 160.9 passing yards and for his career entering this season, Rodgers has thrown a touchdown once every 123.9 passing yards.
  • The Packers have outscored opponents 87-36 in the second half this season, the largest gap in the league.
  • Jerick McKinnon played 47 snaps with 22 touches while Latavius Murray played 22 snaps with 14 touches in Week 5.

 

Bust: Latavius Murray (at best, he’s the Minnesota version of Jonathan Stewart), Case Keenum (the way Sam Bradford looke don Monday, he looks far from ready to return. Outside of Week 3, he hasn’t been a strong option while Green Bay has allowed just one quarterback to finish higher than QB15 on the season), Randall Cobb(just when we we’re going all in on him being back to a weekly commodity, he laid an egg and has an average weekly finish of WR47 in eight games versus the Vikings for his career with just a high of WR26), Martellus Bennett (he’s yet to hit double-digit points in any game and is 15th at the position in yards per game), Aaron JonesTy Montgomery (with full practice on Thursday, putting him on track to play, which muddles things up against a good run defense on the road. I would treat Montgomery as a lower end RB2 and Jones as a fringe flex option with both active until we have firther clarity on if Jones will remain involved or not)

 

Reasonable Return: Aaron Rodgers (his touchdown output the past two weeks has been a touch on the fortunate side given his total output, even for him, while he’s hit 20 points just once in six games versus Minnesota since Mike Zimmer has been there), Adam Thielen (he gets an opportunity bump with Diggs out and we all remember his 200-yard game versus the Packers last year, but he’s only been flex worthy with Keenum, catching five passes in every game, but clearing double-digit points just once), Jerick McKinnon (it’s hard to bank on a long touchdown run inflating totals, but his reception floor is very real as he now has 41 receptions over his past nine games in which he’s played at least 40 percent of the team snaps), Kyle Rudolph (with Diggs potentially limited, he’s worth a look again after he received a season-high nine targets last week, but has yet to hit 50 yards in a game and the Packers have yet to allow a top-12 scoring tight end on the season), Jordy Nelson (he claims he’s healthy, but he played just 82 percent of the snaps last week. His yardage totals have been low and he should find Xavier Rhodes often, but is always a threat to score and was WR3 and WR18 in his two games versus Minnesota a year ago), Davante Adams (you can’t expect high yardage, but outside of Nelson, he carries the most touchdown upside at the position and has the added bonus of Rhodes potentially following Nelson all over the field)

 


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Rich Hribar is a husband, father, sports meteorologist and a slave to statistics. A lifelong sports fan and fantasy gamer. You can find him on Twitter @LordReebs.
Email :Rich Hribar



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