Justin Bailey

Targets and Touches

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Week 8 AFC Targets and Touches

Wednesday, November 1, 2017


Targets and Touches will only have players’ six most recent games, regardless of whether they were active or on a bye. The data will be in descending order of games played. I also decided to add carries inside the five-yard line for running backs rather than just red zone carries. Carries inside the five are more valuable overall as the average touchdown rate over the last 10 years from within five yards is 39 percent, with a substantial drop from further out.

 

All targets and touches data is compiled from Pro Football Reference. Cornerback data is sourced via Pro Football Focus. The NFC will be released on Tuesdays, while the AFC is published on Wednesday.

 

The goal of these articles is to give you an idea of what the usage looks like for each player within their offenses, allowing you to spot any positive or negative trends regarding how a player is being used, and most importantly — letting the numbers tell the story.

 

Note: This data will stick to mainly fantasy-relevant players.  

 

Baltimore Ravens

 

Targets: Javorius Allen (6, 6, 5, 4, 11, 3), Benjamin Watson (3, 6, 4, 8, 5, 4), Jeremy Maclin (5, 6, 8, 0, 0, 5), Mike Wallace (5, 10, 3, 5, 1, 0), Breshad Perriman (1, 4, 3, 2, 0, 2), Maxx Williams (0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0), Alex Collins (0, 2, 0, 0, 0, 2), Terrance West (1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0)


Carries: Javorius Allen (8, 2, 21, 10, 6, 17), Alex Collins (9, 9, 12, 15, 10, 18), Terrance West (6, 4, 2, 0, 0, 0), Mike Wallace (1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0)


RZ Targets: Benjamin Watson (1, 0, 2, 2, 1, 2), Mike Wallace (0, 3, 0, 1, 0, 0), Breshad Perriman (0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0), Jeremy Maclin (0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0)


RZ Carries: Javorius Allen (1, 0, 10, 0, 0, 4), Terrance West (0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0), Alex Collins (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1)


Inside 5 Carries: Javorius Allen (1, 0, 3, 0, 0, 2), Alex Collins (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1)


Coverage Data (via PFF): Brandon Carr (1-35-0, 2-15-0, 3-68-1, 0, 3-22-0, 4-62-0), Jimmy Smith (1-13-0, 1-14-0, 1-3-0, 0, 3-19-0, 2-12-0), Lardarius Webb (2-20-0, 2-21-0, 3-37-0, 2-32-0, 2-42-0, 4-28-0), Marlon Humphrey (0, 4-56-0, 3-33-0, 0, 0, 5-49-0)

 

Observations: Alex Collins played 32 of the 65 offensive snaps on Thursday, garnering 113 yards on 18 carries, plus 30 yards through the air on two targets. He should be gaining steady work as the team’s early-down back, while Buck Allen continues to handle the passing down work, but it should be noted that Danny Woodhead is also close to returning. Coach John Harbaugh said he expects Collins to gain more rushing opportunities, which makes sense considering Collins is averaging 6.0 yards per attempt on his 80 carries.  

 

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Buffalo Bills

 

Targets: LeSean McCoy (7, 3, 9, 0, 7, 7), Zay Jones (2, 5, 6, 0, 9, 5), Charles Clay (6, 7, 3, 0, 0, 0), Jordan Matthews (5, 2, 0, 0, 3, 4), Andre Holmes (2, 1, 1, 0, 3, 4), Nick O'Leary (1, 0, 6, 0, 2, 3), Mike Tolbert (1, 0, 3, 0, 1, 1), Deonte Thompson (0, 0, 0, 0, 4, 1)


Carries: LeSean McCoy (14, 20, 19, 0, 23, 27), Mike Tolbert (11, 8, 3, 0, 3, 4), Deonte Thompson (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0)


RZ Targets: LeSean McCoy (0, 0, 3, 0, 2, 3), Andre Holmes (1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 2), Charles Clay (2, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0), Zay Jones (0, 0, 3, 0, 1, 0), Jordan Matthews (0, 2, 0, 0, 1, 0), Logan Thomas (0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0), Mike Tolbert (1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0), Nick O'Leary (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1)


RZ Carries: LeSean McCoy (4, 2, 1, 0, 4, 7), Mike Tolbert (3, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0)


Inside 5 Carries: LeSean McCoy (0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 4), Mike Tolbert (1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0)


Coverage Data (via PFF): E.J. Gaines (4-39-0, 1-16-0, 0, 0, 4-42-0, 0), Greg Mabin (0, 0, 1-20-0, 0, 0, 0), Leonard Johnson (1--1-0, 3-26-0, 1-5-0, 0, 6-61-0, 5-35-0), Shareece Wright (0, 2-15-0, 7-65-0, 0, 5-90-1, 4-69-0), Tre'Davious White (4-65-0, 4-18-0, 3-131-1, 0, 2-35-1, 3-26-0)

 

Observations: With Tyrod Taylor averaging 28 pass attempts per game, it’s difficult to rely on any receiving option in this offense, especially when LeSean McCoy leads them with 23 percent target share. With Charles Clay still out of the lineup, Zay Jones has averaged 6.7 targets per game over their last three games, but he’s averaging just 2.0 reception in that three-game span. Also, as I write this, the Bills just traded for Kelvin Benjamin, this is certainly a positive for Taylor’s value, but I don’t believe this changes much for Benjamin.

 

Cincinnati Bengals

 

Targets: A.J. Green (13, 7, 13, 0, 6, 8), Brandon LaFell (2, 3, 8, 0, 7, 5), Tyler Kroft (4, 7, 5, 0, 4, 6), Giovani Bernard (2, 4, 2, 0, 3, 2), Joe Mixon (3, 4, 0, 0, 3, 3), Jeremy Hill (1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0), John Ross (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1)


Carries: Joe Mixon (18, 17, 15, 0, 7, 11), Jeremy Hill (7, 6, 4, 0, 4, 4), Giovani Bernard (3, 3, 2, 0, 3, 2)


RZ Targets: Brandon LaFell (0, 0, 2, 0, 3, 0), A.J. Green (1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 3), Tyler Kroft (0, 2, 1, 0, 1, 0), Giovani Bernard (1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1), C.J. Uzomah (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0), Joe Mixon (0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0)


RZ Carries: Joe Mixon (2, 1, 3, 0, 2, 2), Jeremy Hill (3, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0)


Inside 5 Carries: Joe Mixon (0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1)


Coverage Data (via PFF): Adam Jones (2-7-0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2-29-0), Darqueze Dennard (5-24-0, 2-9-0, 3-26-0, 0, 4-69-1, 7-48-0), Dre Kirkpatrick (6-92-2, 2-12-0, 0, 0, 1-19-0, 2-19-0), William Jackson (2-45-0, 3-51-0, 1-9-0, 0, 1-3-0, 0)

 

Observations: Joe Mixon led the Bengals’ running backs with 63 percent of their snaps while garnering 28 percent of their offensive looks, which trounced Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard who each saw eight percent. Mixon is averaging just 3.0 yards per attempt on his 85 carries this season.

 

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Cleveland Browns

 

Targets: Duke Johnson (7, 10, 3, 5, 7, 5), Ricardo Louis (6, 9, 8, 7, 4, 6), David Njoku (4, 2, 3, 5, 5, 7), Seth DeValve (5, 4, 4, 3, 4, 3), Rashard Higgins (6, 4, 4, 2, 3, 1), Kenny Britt (10, 8, 0, 0, 5, 0), Isaiah Crowell (3, 2, 3, 2, 6, 6)


Carries: Isaiah Crowell (12, 7, 16, 12, 17, 11), Duke Johnson (2, 4, 6, 5, 7, 6)


RZ Targets: David Njoku (1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 2), Seth DeValve (0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1), Kenny Britt (1, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0), Ricardo Louis (0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1), Isaiah Crowell (0, 0, 2, 0, 0, 0), Duke Johnson (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0)


RZ Carries: Isaiah Crowell (0, 0, 3, 0, 1, 4), Duke Johnson (1, 2, 0, 1, 0, 1)


Inside 5 Carries: Isaiah Crowell (0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1), Duke Johnson (0, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0)


Coverage Data (via PFF): Briean Boddy-Calhoun (0, 1-9-0, 1-8-0, 0, 0, 3-49-0), Jamar Taylor (6-157-1, 1-21-0, 4-70-1, 3-45-1, 1-8-0, 6-41-0), Jason McCourty (5-51-0, 4-40-0, 5-22-0, 2-19-1, 0, 0), Mike Jordan (0, 1-9-0, 0, 0, 2-23-0, 3-34-0)

 

Observations: Finally, something positive to say about the Browns. Isaiah Crowell finally strung together an exceptional performance, piling up 64 yards and touchdown on 11 carries. More notably, he saw six targets in the passing game and he now has 12 an in the last two weeks. However, the Browns are still bad.


Denver Broncos

 

Targets: Demaryius Thomas (9, 5, 0, 14, 6, 9), Emmanuel Sanders (15, 5, 0, 8, 0, 0), Bennie Fowler (7, 2, 0, 8, 5, 6), A.J. Derby (2, 6, 0, 4, 7, 4), C.J. Anderson (2, 4, 0, 0, 2, 1), Devontae Booker (0, 0, 0, 6, 4, 3), Jamaal Charles (1, 1, 0, 3, 4, 1)


Carries: C.J. Anderson (8, 20, 0, 9, 10, 15), Jamaal Charles (9, 5, 0, 5, 4, 8), Devontae Booker (0, 3, 0, 1, 2, 6)


RZ Targets: Bennie Fowler (1, 0, 0, 3, 0, 2), C.J. Anderson (1, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0), Emmanuel Sanders (0, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0), A.J. Derby (0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1), Demaryius Thomas (1, 1, 0, 2, 0, 0), Devontae Booker (0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0)


RZ Carries: C.J. Anderson (1, 2, 0, 1, 0, 0), Jamaal Charles (2, 2, 0, 1, 0, 0), Devontae Booker (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 4)


Inside 5 Carries: C.J. Anderson (0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0)



Coverage Data (via PFF): Aqib Talib (0, 2-12-0, 0, 0, 1-2-0, 2-38-0), Bradley Roby (2-6-1, 2-16-0, 0, 1-6-0, 2-19-0, 1-19-0), Chris Harris Jr. (2-53-0, 3-33-0, 0, 0, 3-64-1, 1-5-0)

 

Observations: Trevor Siemian now has a higher interception rate (4.0 percent) than touchdown rate (3.6 percent). Demaryius Thomas has 59 targets this season, which ranks 18th among pass-catchers, but he is one of two receivers (Pierre Garcon) who rank inside the top-20 that are held without a touchdown catch.


Houston Texans

 

Targets: DeAndre Hopkins (8, 12, 12, 4, 0, 11), Ryan Griffin (6, 5, 4, 8, 0, 2), Bruce Ellington (7, 4, 3, 3, 0, 4), Will Fuller (0, 6, 3, 5, 0, 8), Lamar Miller (1, 5, 3, 4, 0, 3), Braxton Miller (4, 0, 0, 2, 0, 0), D'Onta Foreman (3, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0), Chris Thompson (0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0)


Carries: Lamar Miller (14, 19, 15, 15, 0, 21), D'Onta Foreman (8, 13, 4, 12, 0, 0), Alfred Blue (0, 4, 0, 0, 0, 5), Bruce Ellington (1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0), Will Fuller (0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0)


RZ Targets: DeAndre Hopkins (0, 2, 2, 1, 0, 0), Will Fuller (0, 2, 1, 0, 0, 1), Ryan Griffin (2, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0), Bruce Ellington (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1), Lamar Miller (0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1), D'Onta Foreman (1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0)


RZ Carries: Lamar Miller (2, 5, 3, 0, 0, 3), D'Onta Foreman (2, 1, 0, 2, 0, 0), Will Fuller (0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0)


Inside 5 Carries: Lamar Miller (0, 2, 0, 0, 0, 2), D'Onta Foreman (0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0)


Coverage Data (via PFF): Johnathan Joseph (2-26-1, 1-28-0, 2-56-0, 2-3-0, 0, 3-16-0), Kareem Jackson (3-37-0, 3-27-0, 9-106-1, 1-20-0, 0, 5-109-0), Kevin Johnson (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 6-90-1), Marcus Burley (0, 0, 0, 2-13-0, 0, 0), Marcus Williams (0, 0, 0, 4-41-0, 0, 3-46-0)


Observations: Oofta, where to begin. Deshaun Watson now leads the NFL with a 9.3 percent touchdown rate. He’s tied with Carson Wentz for a league-high 19 passing touchdowns, but he ranks 26th in pass attempts (204), which makes it even more impressive. Will Fuller has just 13 receptions this season, but seven of them are for touchdowns…. DeAndre Hopkins and Fuller are tied for the NFL lead with a league-high seven touchdowns.

 

Indianapolis Colts


Targets: T.Y. Hilton (9, 6, 9, 4, 8, 7), Jack Doyle (5, 7, 0, 11, 7, 14), Kamar Aiken (1, 5, 7, 4, 3, 5), Donte Moncrief (3, 3, 3, 7, 4, 1), Frank Gore (1, 3, 4, 3, 0, 4), Marlon Mack (0, 0, 1, 2, 6, 5)


Carries: Frank Gore (25, 12, 14, 10, 9, 16), Marlon Mack (0, 0, 9, 2, 5, 11)


RZ Targets: T.Y. Hilton (2, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0), Donte Moncrief (0, 1, 0, 3, 0, 0), Jack Doyle (1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1), Frank Gore (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1), Kamar Aiken (0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1), Marlon Mack (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1)


RZ Carries: Frank Gore (3, 0, 3, 0, 0, 3), Marlon Mack (0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 2)


Inside 5 Carries: Robert Turbin (0, 2, 1, 0, 0, 0), Frank Gore (1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0)


Coverage Data (via PFF): Nate Hairston (1-1-0, 1-5-0, 0, 2-14-0, 5-96-0, 0), Pierre Desir (3-53-0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2-25-1), Rashaan Melvin (3-47-1, 4-28-1, 5-48-0, 4-51-0, 0, 0), Vontae Davis (0, 5-101-0, 3-45-0, 2-14-0, 3-17-0, 2-24-0)


Observations: Over the last six weeks, Jack Doyle leads all tight ends with 43 targets and 35 receptions. 14 of those targets and 12 of those receptions came against the Bengals in Week 8. Doyle is now the TE5 this season with 87.8 PPR points. T.Y. Hiltons road struggles continue as he put up a 2-15 line on seven targets, albeit it was a tough matchup against a Bengals secondary that funnels production to the middle of the field.


Jacksonville Jaguars

 

Targets: Marqise Lee (4, 12, 7, 3, 4, 10, 6), Allen Hurns (4, 7, 3, 10, 3, 3, 8), Chris Ivory (2, 4, 2, 3, 0, 10, 0), Keelan Cole (2, 3, 4, 6, 1, 2, 3), Leonard Fournette (3, 5, 4, 5, 1, 2, 0), Marcedes Lewis (2, 2, 5, 4, 2, 2, 3), T.J. Yeldon (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2)


Carries: Leonard Fournette (26, 14, 17, 24, 28, 21, 0), Chris Ivory (9, 6, 6, 9, 8, 2, 17), T.J. Yeldon (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 9), Marqise Lee (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0)


RZ Targets: Allen Hurns (1, 2, 2, 2, 0, 0, 0), Marcedes Lewis (0, 0, 3, 2, 0, 0, 2), Marqise Lee (0, 0, 2, 0, 0, 0, 1), Chris Ivory (0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0), Leonard Fournette (0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0)


RZ Carries: Leonard Fournette (7, 1, 4, 0, 4, 0, 0), Chris Ivory (1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 5)


Inside 5 Carries: Leonard Fournette (4, 1, 2, 0, 1, 0, 0), Chris Ivory (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 2),


Coverage Data (via PFF): A.J. Bouye (3-28-0, 4-88-0, 0, 4-55-0, 1-18-0, 2-25-0, 4-47-0), Aaron Colvin (2-9-0, 4-48-0, 2-15-0, 2-18-0, 10-59-0, 3-35-0, 2-13-0), Jalen Ramsey (3-23-0, 0, 1-3-0, 3-16-0, 5-100-0, 3-36-0, 4-38-0)


Observations: Bye.



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Justin Bailey has been working with Rotoworld since 2015. His stat-forward analysis can also be found on FantasyLabs and 4for4. Follow him on Twitter - @justinbailey32.
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