Justin Bailey

Targets and Touches

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Week 9: AFC Targets & Touches

Wednesday, November 8, 2017


Targets and Touches will only have players’ six most recent games, regardless of whether they were active or on a bye. The data will be in descending order of games played. I also decided to add carries inside the five-yard line for running backs rather than just red zone carries. Carries inside the five are more valuable overall as the average touchdown rate over the last 10 years from within five yards is 39 percent, with a substantial drop from further out.

 

All targets and touches data is compiled from Pro Football Reference. Cornerback data is sourced via Pro Football Focus. The NFC will be released on Tuesdays, while the AFC is published on Wednesday.

 

The goal of these articles is to give you an idea of what the usage looks like for each player within their offenses, allowing you to spot any positive or negative trends regarding how a player is being used, and most importantly — letting the numbers tell the story.

 

Note: This data will stick to mainly fantasy-relevant players.  

 

Baltimore Ravens

 

Targets: Javorius Allen (6, 5, 4, 11, 3, 8), Benjamin Watson (6, 4, 8, 5, 4, 10), Jeremy Maclin (6, 8, 0, 0, 5, 9), Mike Wallace (10, 3, 5, 1, 0, 7), Breshad Perriman (4, 3, 2, 0, 2, 7), Nick Boyle (5, 2, 3, 3, 4, 0), Chris Moore (0, 0, 7, 8, 0, 4), Michael Campanaro (6, 1, 5, 3, 0, 0), Maxx Williams (0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 3), Alex Collins (2, 0, 0, 0, 2, 1),


Carries: Javorius Allen (2, 21, 10, 6, 17, 7), Alex Collins (9, 12, 15, 10, 18, 13), Terrance West (4, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0)


RZ Targets: Benjamin Watson (0, 2, 2, 1, 2, 1), Mike Wallace (3, 0, 1, 0, 0, 2), Nick Boyle (1, 2, 1, 1, 0, 0), Javorius Allen (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2), Chris Moore (0, 0, 1, 3, 0, 0), Jeremy Maclin (0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1), Breshad Perriman (1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0)


RZ Carries: Javorius Allen (0, 10, 0, 0, 4, 1), Terrance West (0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0), Alex Collins (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 3)


Inside 5 Carries: Javorius Allen (0, 3, 0, 0, 2, 0), Alex Collins (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1), Vince Mayle (0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0)


Coverage Data (via PFF): Brandon Carr (2-15-0, 3-68-1, 0, 3-22-0, 4-62-0, 4-45-1), Jaylen Hill (0, 0, 0, 1-14-0, 0, 0), Jimmy Smith (1-14-0, 1-3-0, 0, 3-19-0, 2-12-0, 2-6-0), Lardarius Webb (2-21-0, 3-37-0, 2-32-0, 2-42-0, 4-28-0, 0), Marlon Humphrey (4-56-0, 3-33-0, 0, 0, 5-49-0, 0)

 

Observations: Ben Watson led all tight ends in routes run (47) and tied with Evan Engram for a position-high in targets (10) in Week 9. Watson may finally be healthy after playing 89 percent of the snaps. Buck Allen saw eight targets in this game (7-44-1), but reports are that Terrance West and Danny Woodhead are slowly making their way back, which may make this backfield quite crowded with those three plus Alex Collins.


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Buffalo Bills

 

Targets: LeSean McCoy (3, 9, 0, 7, 7, 1), Zay Jones (5, 6, 0, 9, 5, 7), Charles Clay (7, 3, 0, 0, 0, 0), Jordan Matthews (2, 0, 0, 3, 4, 8), Andre Holmes (1, 1, 0, 3, 4, 3), Nick O'Leary (0, 6, 0, 2, 3, 5), Deonte Thompson (0, 0, 0, 4, 1, 10), Mike Tolbert (0, 3, 0, 1, 1, 3), Logan Thomas (0, 2, 0, 1, 1, 3)


Carries: LeSean McCoy (20, 19, 0, 23, 27, 12), Mike Tolbert (8, 3, 0, 3, 4, 4), Deonte Thompson (0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0)


RZ Targets: LeSean McCoy (0, 3, 0, 2, 3, 1), Zay Jones (0, 3, 0, 1, 0, 1), Andre Holmes (1, 0, 0, 0, 2, 0), Jordan Matthews (2, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1),  Logan Thomas (0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0), Nick O'Leary (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0)


RZ Carries: LeSean McCoy (2, 1, 0, 4, 7, 1), Mike Tolbert (1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0)


Inside 5 Carries: LeSean McCoy (1, 0, 0, 1, 4, 0), Mike Tolbert (0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0)


Coverage Data (via PFF): E.J. Gaines (1-16-0, 0, 0, 4-42-0, 0, 0), Greg Mabin (0, 1-20-0, 0, 0, 0, 0), Leonard Johnson (3-26-0, 1-5-0, 0, 6-61-0, 5-35-0, 0), Shareece Wright (2-15-0, 7-65-0, 0, 5-90-1, 4-69-0, 1-13-0), Tre'Davious White (4-18-0, 3-131-1, 0, 2-35-1, 3-26-0, 3-37-1)

 

Observations: LeSean McCoy had just 12 carries, but he was in and out of this game with a groin injury. They also were trailing substantially in this game, which also affected his workload throughout. Deonte Thompson led the team with 10 targets, followed by Jordan Matthews (eight), and Zay Jones (seven), however, it’s a rarity that Tyrod Taylor will attempt 40 passes like he did on Thursday night. Kelvin Benjamin will also be active heading into Week 10 which will leave the targets thinner for the receiving group.

 

Cincinnati Bengals

 

Targets: A.J. Green (7, 13, 0, 6, 8, 2), Brandon LaFell (3, 8, 0, 7, 5, 2), Tyler Kroft (7, 5, 0, 4, 6, 2), Joe Mixon (4, 0, 0, 3, 3, 4), Giovani Bernard (4, 2, 0, 3, 2, 1)


Carries: Joe Mixon (17, 15, 0, 7, 11, 13), Jeremy Hill (6, 4, 0, 4, 4, 0), Giovani Bernard (3, 2, 0, 3, 2, 1)


RZ Targets: Brandon LaFell (0, 2, 0, 3, 0, 0), A.J. Green (1, 0, 0, 0, 3, 0), Tyler Kroft (2, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0), Giovani Bernard (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0), Joe Mixon (1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1)


RZ Carries: Joe Mixon (1, 3, 0, 2, 2, 2), Jeremy Hill (2, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0)


Inside 5 Carries: Joe Mixon (1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0)


Coverage Data (via PFF): Adam Jones (0, 0, 0, 0, 2-29-0, 4-36-1), Darqueze Dennard (2-9-0, 3-26-0, 0, 4-69-1, 7-48-0, 2-22-0), Dre Kirkpatrick (2-12-0, 0, 0, 1-19-0, 2-19-0, 6-93-0)

 

Observations: Jeremy Hill was announced inactive for this game and Joe Mixon played a season-high 92 percent of snaps. Mixon led the Bengals with 49 percent of their offensive looks (13 carries, four targets), but he struggled overall with just 46 total yards. He salvaged his day with a rushing touchdown. Nobody on the receiving team saw more than four targets, but their usage should be skewed as A.J. Green was ejected for starting a brawl.

 

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Cleveland Browns

 

Targets: Duke Johnson (7, 10, 3, 5, 7, 5), Ricardo Louis (6, 9, 8, 7, 4, 6), David Njoku (4, 2, 3, 5, 5, 7), Seth DeValve (5, 4, 4, 3, 4, 3), Rashard Higgins (6, 4, 4, 2, 3, 1), Kenny Britt (10, 8, 0, 0, 5, 0), Isaiah Crowell (3, 2, 3, 2, 6, 6)


Carries: Isaiah Crowell (12, 7, 16, 12, 17, 11), Duke Johnson (2, 4, 6, 5, 7, 6)


RZ Targets: David Njoku (1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 2), Seth DeValve (0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1), Kenny Britt (1, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0), Ricardo Louis (0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1), Isaiah Crowell (0, 0, 2, 0, 0, 0), Duke Johnson (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0)


RZ Carries: Isaiah Crowell (0, 0, 3, 0, 1, 4), Duke Johnson (1, 2, 0, 1, 0, 1)


Inside 5 Carries: Isaiah Crowell (0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1), Duke Johnson (0, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0)


Coverage Data (via PFF): Briean Boddy-Calhoun (0, 1-9-0, 1-8-0, 0, 0, 3-49-0), Jamar Taylor (6-157-1, 1-21-0, 4-70-1, 3-45-1, 1-8-0, 6-41-0), Jason McCourty (5-51-0, 4-40-0, 5-22-0, 2-19-1, 0, 0), Mike Jordan (0, 1-9-0, 0, 0, 2-23-0, 3-34-0)

 

Observations: Bye.


Denver Broncos

 

Targets: Demaryius Thomas (5, 0, 14, 6, 9, 12), Emmanuel Sanders (5, 0, 8, 0, 0, 5), Bennie Fowler (2, 0, 8, 5, 6, 2), A.J. Derby (6, 0, 4, 7, 4, 3), C.J. Anderson (4, 0, 0, 2, 1, 1), Devontae Booker (0, 0, 6, 4, 3, 3), Jamaal Charles (1, 0, 3, 4, 1, 4)


Carries: C.J. Anderson (20, 0, 9, 10, 15, 9), Jamaal Charles (5, 0, 5, 4, 8, 4), Devontae Booker (3, 0, 1, 2, 6, 6)


RZ Targets: Bennie Fowler (0, 0, 3, 0, 2, 0), Demaryius Thomas (1, 0, 2, 0, 0, 3), Emmanuel Sanders (2, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1), C.J. Anderson (2, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0), A.J. Derby (0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1), Devontae Booker (0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0)


RZ Carries: C.J. Anderson (2, 0, 1, 0, 0, 2), Jamaal Charles (2, 0, 1, 0, 0, 2), Devontae Booker (0, 0, 0, 0, 4, 0)


Inside 5 Carries: C.J. Anderson (0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 2), Jamaal Charles (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1)


Coverage Data (via PFF): Aqib Talib (2-12-0, 0, 0, 1-2-0, 2-38-0, 4-64-2), Bradley Roby (2-16-0, 0, 1-6-0, 2-19-0, 1-19-0, 5-53-0), Chris Harris Jr. (3-33-0, 0, 0, 3-64-1, 1-5-0, 2-36-0)

 

Observations: Game script issues likely led the Broncos’ diverse backfield reps as C.J. Anderson (36 percent), Devontae Booker (34 percent), and Jamaal Charles (30 percent), all saw near-equal snap usage. If this trend continues, their backfield will be close to unusable.


Houston Texans

 

Targets: DeAndre Hopkins (12, 12, 4, 0, 11, 16), Bruce Ellington (4, 3, 3, 0, 4, 8), Will Fuller (6, 3, 5, 0, 8, 8), Ryan Griffin (5, 4, 8, 0, 2, 0), Lamar Miller (5, 3, 4, 0, 3, 4), D'Onta Foreman (0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1)


Carries: Lamar Miller (19, 15, 15, 0, 21, 10), D'Onta Foreman (13, 4, 12, 0, 0, 11), Will Fuller (1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0)


RZ Targets: DeAndre Hopkins (2, 2, 1, 0, 0, 3), Will Fuller (2, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0), Bruce Ellington (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1), Ryan Griffin (1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0), Lamar Miller (1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0)


RZ Carries: Lamar Miller (5, 3, 0, 0, 3, 0), D'Onta Foreman (1, 0, 2, 0, 0, 1), Will Fuller (0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0)


Inside 5 Carries: Lamar Miller (2, 0, 0, 0, 2, 0), D'Onta Foreman (0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0)


Coverage Data (via PFF): Johnathan Joseph (1-28-0, 2-56-0, 2-3-0, 0, 3-16-0, 2-62-1), Kareem Jackson (3-27-0, 9-106-1, 1-20-0, 0, 5-109-0, 3-27-0), Kevin Johnson (0, 0, 0, 0, 6-90-1, 3-33-0)


Observations: With Tom Savage under center, Lamar Miller and D’Onta Foreman saw similar usage. Miller saw 13 touches, to Foreman’s 11. While their workload was similar, Miller still played 73 percent of the snaps compared to Foreman’s 28 percent. Foreman’s workload may be a continuing trend with Savage under center. DeAndre Hopkins saw 16 targets on Sunday, but only seven of them were deemed catchable (PFF).

 

Indianapolis Colts


Targets: T.Y. Hilton (6, 9, 4, 8, 7, 9), Jack Doyle (7, 0, 11, 7, 14, 9), Kamar Aiken (5, 7, 4, 3, 5, 2), Donte Moncrief (3, 3, 7, 4, 1, 2), Frank Gore (3, 4, 3, 0, 4, 4), Marlon Mack (0, 1, 2, 6, 5, 0)


Carries: Frank Gore (12, 14, 10, 9, 16, 17), Marlon Mack (0, 9, 2, 5, 11, 9)


RZ Targets: T.Y. Hilton (0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1), Donte Moncrief (1, 0, 3, 0, 0, 0), Jack Doyle (1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0), Kamar Aiken (0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1), Frank Gore (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0), Marlon Mack (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0)


RZ Carries: Frank Gore (0, 3, 0, 0, 3, 0), Marlon Mack (0, 1, 1, 0, 2, 4)


Inside 5 Carries: Robert Turbin (2, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0)


Coverage Data (via PFF): Chris Milton (0, 0, 0, 1-52-0, 0, 0), Kenny Moore II (0, 0, 0, 1-15-0, 0, 0), Nate Hairston (1-5-0, 0, 2-14-0, 5-96-0, 0, 4-43-0), Pierre Desir (0, 0, 0, 0, 2-25-1, 6-86-1), Rashaan Melvin (4-28-1, 5-48-0, 4-51-0, 0, 0, 1-10-0), Vontae Davis (5-101-0, 3-45-0, 2-14-0, 3-17-0, 3-49-1, 0)


Observations: The combination of matchup and T.Y. Hilton’s indoor/outdoor splits aligned in this game as he racked up 175 and yards two touchdowns on a team-high nine targets. Per the RotoViz adjusted yards per attempt app (AY/A), Jacoby Brissett is averaging a 12.16 AY/A when throwing Hilton’s direction.


Jacksonville Jaguars

 

Targets: Marqise Lee (3, 4, 10, 6, 0, 12), Allen Hurns (10, 3, 3, 8, 0, 4), Keelan Cole (6, 1, 2, 3, 0, 5), Marcedes Lewis (4, 2, 2, 3, 0, 6), Chris Ivory (3, 0, 10, 0, 0, 4), Leonard Fournette (5, 1, 2, 0, 0, 0), T.J. Yeldon (0, 0, 0, 2, 0, 4)


Carries: Leonard Fournette (24, 28, 21, 0, 0, 0), Chris Ivory (9, 8, 2, 17, 0, 20), T.J. Yeldon (0, 0, 0, 9, 0, 11), Marqise Lee (0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0)


RZ Targets: Marcedes Lewis (2, 0, 0, 2, 0, 1), Allen Hurns (2, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0), Marqise Lee (0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 3), Chris Ivory (1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2), Leonard Fournette (1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0)


RZ Carries: Chris Ivory (1, 1, 0, 5, 0, 7), Leonard Fournette (0, 4, 0, 0, 0, 0), T.J. Yeldon (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 4)


Inside 5 Carries: Leonard Fournette (0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0), Chris Ivory (0, 1, 0, 2, 0, 3)


Coverage Data (via PFF): A.J. Bouye (4-55-0, 1-18-0, 2-25-0, 4-47-0, 0, 1-19-0), Aaron Colvin (2-18-0, 10-59-0, 3-35-0, 2-13-0, 0, 1-9-0), Jalen Ramsey (3-16-0, 5-100-0, 3-36-0, 4-38-0, 0, 1-6-0)


Observations: Leonard Fournette was a surprise inactive after he violated team rules. As a result, Chris Ivory led the backfield with 49 percent of their snaps and 31 percent of their offensive looks. Marqise Lee led them 12 targets, and he now leads them 23 percent target share and 37 percent of their air yards over the last six weeks. Fournette will be back in Week 10 to eat against this porous Chargers run defense.  



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Justin Bailey has been working with Rotoworld since 2015. His stat-forward analysis can also be found on FantasyLabs and 4for4. Follow him on Twitter - @justinbailey32.
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