Rich Hribar

The Worksheet

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The NFL Week 10 Worksheet

Wednesday, November 8, 2017


We’re really winding down on the fantasy regular season, so hopefully your roster is getting tuned up with final preparations for an upcoming playoff run. Week 9 was thankfully light on significant injuries and this week we get many explosive fantasy options back on the board that were on bye a week ago. This week, we’re down to four teams on bye this week, but they all are also littered with players that we’ve been counting on in lineups. Make sure that all Oakland, Baltimore, Kansas City and Philadelphia players are out of your lineups early in the week. If your playoff hopes have all but been dashed, don’t worry, there’s still DFS for another eight full weeks.

 

As for the token disclaimer, the goal of this article is to provide a top-down, statistical snapshot for each game each week, running down weekly point spreads, team totals, play calling splits, and statistical bullet points on the players and teams involved. Although we’re focusing strictly on PPR league scoring here as a baseline, there’s more than enough to spread around across formats and daily leagues. The reason we’re operating under a PPR umbrella is it allows us to cover a larger portion of the players involved in action weekly.

 

Lastly, as the author, it’s imperative that I note that this is NOT a start/sit column, rather an expectations column. The labels for each subset of players for each game are simply a vehicle for those expectations and have a different context for each player that you can find at the end of the column. I encourage that you use the game by game tables and data points here in conjunction with the Start/Sit column posted weekly by Nick Mensio, Pat Daugherty’s rankings in the Goal Line Stand, Evan Silva’s Matchup’s column, Ray Summerlin's Waiver Wired and most importantly, your own information and thought process. Remember, you control your own team. With that out of the way, let’s hit all the Week 10 games with a PPR light…

 

Seahawks @ Cardinals


SeattleRank@ArizonaRank
-6   Spread 6  
23.8   Implied Total 17.8  
23.6 10 Points/Gm 17.4 26
18.6 5 Points All./Gm 25.1 27
67.1 2 Plays/Gm 65.6 10
62.9 15 Opp. Plays/Gm 67.8 30
40.0% 22 Rush% 36.2% 27
60.0% 11 Pass% 63.8% 6
40.4% 10 Opp. Rush % 40.4% 11
59.6% 23 Opp. Pass % 59.6% 22

 

  • Adrian Peterson has a rushing attempt on 57 percent of his snaps, the highest rate in the league.
  • Since joining the Cardinals, 69 of Peterson's touches have come with the game tied or Arizona leading the game (57.9 percent of the team touches). When trailing he's had eight touches (40 percent of the team total).
  • After allowing 456 rushing yards on 89 carries (5.1 yards per carry) to opposing backfields over their first four games, Seattle has allowed 219 rushing yards on 76 attempts (2.9 YPC) since.
  • Opponents have run just 7.7 percent of their offensive plays from inside of the red zone versus Seattle this season, the lowest rate in the league.
  • Doug Baldwin ranks fourth in the league with 72.7 points from the slot this season.
  • Per Pro Football Focus, Patrick Peterson has defended the slot for a total of 22-of-390 snaps versus the Seahawks over the past three seasons.
  • In those six games, Baldwin has 40 receptions for 539 yards and two touchdowns with at least 13 points in four of those games.

 

Trust: Russell Wilson (you often have to wait until the second half to get the points flowing, but he’s scored 20 or more points in five of his past six games and has averaged 17.5 points over his past five Thursday Night games), Doug Baldwin (he should avoid Peterson for the majority of the night and has double-digit targets in all three games since the bye), Jimmy Graham (he’s dealing with an ankle issue, but has been a top-10 scoring tight end in six straight games with double-digit points in each of those games while Arizona has allowed a top-6 scoring week to every starting caliber tight end they’ve faced)

 

Bust: Adrian Peterson (his fantasy viability has tethered to game script, which we can’t count on being favorable here while Seattle has shored up their early season run struggles), John Brown (he hasn’t more than three catches in a game since Week 1 and has just two over his past two games playing primarily with Stanton), Drew Stanton (he game-managed his way to a QB19 scoring week against the 49ers, a far better matchup, even with Seattle dinged up a bit defensively), Larry Fitzgerald (he’s only a flex play as he’s been a WR2 or better in three of eight games and now carries a WR3 ceiling with Stanton), SEA RBs (Thomas Rawls looks like he’s at the front of the carousel this week, but Wilson has led the team in rushing in each of the past two games while Arizona is ninth in yardage allowed to opposing backfields), Paul Richardson (he’s always a threat to score while Wilson is playing so well, but even if the Cardinals choose to play things straight up defensively, he’ll draw Peterson in coverage the most and has had more than three catches in a game just twice), Tyler Lockett (he’s nursing a shoulder injury and has been far to unreliable, topping 30-yards receiving in just three of eight games)

 

Editor's Note: DFS pro Andy Means, shares four players you should build around in Week 10. Find the plays here!


Jets @ Buccaneers

 

NY JetsRank@Tampa BayRank
0   Spread 0  
20.5   Implied Total 20.5  
21.2 18 Points/Gm 19.8 21
23.0 18 Points All./Gm 24.8 26
59.3 30 Plays/Gm 62.8 20
66.0 27 Opp. Plays/Gm 65.5 26
43.6% 14 Rush% 35.5% 30
56.4% 19 Pass% 64.5% 3
43.8% 23 Opp. Rush % 44.9% 26
56.2% 10 Opp. Pass % 55.2% 7

 

  • The Buccaneers have trailed by multiple possessions for 43.4 percent of their offensive snaps, second to only San Francisco (45.7 percent).
  • Tampa Bay is allowing 80.3 fantasy points per game to opposing skill players, 31st in the league.
  • Tampa Bay is allowing opposing passers to complete 50 percent of their passes 15 yards or further downfield, 31st in the league.
  • Josh McCown has completed 54.1 percent (20-of-37) of his throws 15 yards or further downfield (second in the league) and has thrown a league-high nine touchdown passes on those passes.
  • Over the past four weeks, Robby Anderson is the WR6 in overall scoring, ranking 14th in targets (28), T-10th in receptions (17), eighth in receiving yards (263) and tied for the most touchdowns (three).
  • The Jets are allowing 2.8 offensive touchdowns per game, tied for the most in the league.
  • The Buccaneers have scored on just 3-of-23 possessions the past two weeks with just one touchdown, the lowest totals in the league.
  • Just 23.1 percent of the yardage gained by the Buccaneers has been on the ground, 31st in the league.
  • Doug Martin played just 18 snaps in Week 9 (31 percent of the team total), his lowest total and rate for the season.

 

Trust: Josh McCown (he’s had at least 15 points in five of his past seven games while the Bucs are 30th in passing points per game allowed), Robby Anderson (he has double-digit points in four straight games while Tampa Bay has allowed the most points per game to opposing wide receivers), Bilal Powell (he’s been a top-10 scorer in four of the six games he's played with Forte out or playing fewer 20 percent of the snaps while Tampa Bay is 24th in yards from scrimmage allowed to opposing backfields)

 

Bust: Doug Martin (the Jets run defense has been hit or miss over the past month and Tampa should go back to giving him touches given their losses on offense this week, but even with touches, he’s been an RB3 or lower in each of his past three games), O.J. Howard (two or fewer receptions in every game except for one), Austin Seferian-Jenkins (you can chase a touchdown with McCown in a good spot, but he’s yet to clear 50-yards in a game with fewer than 30-yards in three straight while Tampa Bay is allowing the fourth-fewest points per game to tight ends), Jermaine Kearse (similar to ASJ, you can chase the spot elevating him into the WR3 mix, but if Kearse doesn’t score, he hasn’t been useful, averaging a WR52 finish in his six games without a score), Chris Godwin (he's a deep-league dart, but I prefer Humphries and Brate to soak up the vacated opportunity left by Evans), Elijah McGuire (he's in a deep bucket of RB3/flex options, but has not been involved as a pass catcher and has been ineffective with his opportunities over the past five weeks, rushign 38 times for 81 yards)

 

Reasonable Return: DeSean Jackson (he gets a bump with Mike Evans suspended while Morris Claiborne is still dealing with a foot injury), Cameron Brate (he also gets a slight target increase while the Jets have allowed the second-most touchdowns to opposing tight ends on the season) , Ryan Fitzpatrick (the team total isn’t flattering, but he has to be in the streaming mix with the Jets allowing 20.6 points per game to quarterbacks over their past five games), Adam Humphries (with Evans out and leaving a lot of targets on the table, Humphries slides into a floor-play option this week for teams in need of help with depleted waivers)

 

Editor’s Note: FanDuel is hosting the Rotoworld Beat the Writers Series, where you can play against five Rotoworld football writers for your chance at cash prizes and free entry into their Sunday Million. Put your knowledge to the test!

 

Saints @ Bills


New OrleansRank@BuffaloRank
-2   Spread 2  
24.0   Implied Total 22.0  
27.6 6 Points/Gm 21.8 16
19.4 10 Points All./Gm 18.6 6
63.9 17 Plays/Gm 64.0 16
61.1 6 Opp. Plays/Gm 64.8 23
44.6% 12 Rush% 48.8% 4
55.4% 21 Pass% 51.2% 29
40.3% 9 Opp. Rush % 39.0% 6
59.7% 24 Opp. Pass % 61.0% 27

 

  • Buffalo allowed 194 rushing yards last week after allowing 188 yards rushing over their previous three games combined.
  • The Saints have rushed for over 100 yards in four straight games for the first time since 2014.
  • Alvin Kamara leads all backs with 50 or more carries in rushing points per attempt (.94) and in percent of runs (46.2 percent) that have resulted in a first down.
  • Kamara is being targeted on 32.3 percent of his routes, the highest rate for all running backs with 100 or more snaps in route per Pro Football Focus.
  • Mark Ingram played 60 percent of the team snaps last week, his highest rate in a game since Week 6.
  • Drew Brees has thrown for 300-yards in just two of eight games, averaging 276.8 yards passing per game. The last time that he averaged fewer than 300-yards passing per game was 2010.
  • Buffalo averages 151 yards rushing per game at home as opposed to 82.8 yards rushing per game on the road, the largest gap in the league.
  • LeSean McCoy leads all running backs in points scored at home this season (93.7), where he averages 130.8 yards from scrimmage per game compared to 66.3 per game on the road.
  • New Orleans has allowed 174.3 passing yards per game over their past six games, the lowest amount in the league over that span.

 

Trust: Alvin Kamara (he’s arguably the hottest combo-back going, with 12 or more points in six straight games and three straight RB1 weeks), Mark Ingram (he still had 17 touches and got the bulk of the playing time, but just failed to score for the first time over the past month and only had one reception, both of which have probability of rebounding), LeSean McCoy (just a bizarre game for McCoy last week as the run game was scripted out early on and then he wasn’t involved in the passing game for the first time all season. I’d expect both to correct themselves this week against a Saints team that is 20th in yards from scrimmage allowed to opposing backs and 27th in receptions allowed to the position)

 

Bust: Kelvin Benjamin (he still has to get acclimated to his new surroundings and in his first game in Buffalo he’ll draw Marshon Lattimore, who just flatlined Mike Evans a week ago), Other Bills’ WRs (the group was already hit or miss weekly and the only other Buffalo WR that has steady volume before the addition of Benjamin has been Zay Jones)

Reasonable Return: Drew Brees (he’s still been just as surgical as ever throwing the ball, but has lived in the lower-end of the QB1 pool with the Saints playing sound defense and running the ball so well and although the Bills have given up some yardage to quarterbacks, they've limited touchdowns), Michael Thomas (he has seven of more receptions in five of his past six games, but still has yet to hit 90-yards in a game), Ted Ginn (he’s had more than four receptions just once, but has found stability with 59 or more yards in each of the past four weeks on his way to four straight WR3 or better games), Tyrod Taylor (he’s been better at home this year, averaging 18.3 points per game in Buffalo, while finishing as a QB1 in three straight games. The Saints have been limiting passing output, but Taylor is never a guy we’re playing while banking on high passing production to begin with), Charles Clay (we're always hesitant to expect ceiling weeks from players returning from multi-week layoffs, but Clay plays a position with limited options --especially with Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz on bye-- which has him on the table to usable option)

 


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Rich Hribar is a husband, father, sports meteorologist and a slave to statistics. A lifelong sports fan and fantasy gamer. You can find him on Twitter @LordReebs.
Email :Rich Hribar



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