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Daily Dose: Hogan Hurting

Thursday, November 9, 2017


Even though it feels like this has been a hellacious year for injuries, Week 10 looks rather straightforward as far as reports go. We just have to hope Leonard Fournette isn't scratched at the buzzer again this week.

Before we get to the news, make sure you pop in Evan Silva’s TNF Matchups for the Hawks-Cards game. You can check out Seattle’s injury report below, too -- it’s a doozy -- but the Seahawks remain near six-point favorites to win despite all of their ailments across the board.

 

All right. We’ve got a mid-tier TE1 returning, a RBBC looming, a stud fantasy WR2 injured and a weekly injury update on Jordan Reed on tap. Let’s hit it all in the Dose:

 

The Headlines

After missing four weeks with a torn meniscus and a sprained MCL, Charles Clay is "on track" to return in Week 10. Even with Kelvin Benjamin in tow in Buffalo, it's a boost to the Bills offense as a whole. It remains to be seen how Buffalo will distribute targets with Benjamin in the lineup and Clay back, but it is worth noting Clay had one of the most voluminous tight end roles before hurting his knee. In Week 1-4, Clay led all TEs in team share of targets (25%) and was tied for sixth at the position in receptions (18). Outside of Zach Ertz, Travis Kelce, Rob Gronkowski and second-tier TE1's Evan Engram, Jimmy Graham and Jack Doyle -- it has been another light year for tight end depth. Clay's return certainly helps. Before going down, Clay was averaging 13.2 PPR PPG, fifth-most among all tight ends.

 

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As if the Packers couldn't be drained of any more fantasy value after losing Aaron Rodgers (collarbone) likely for the year, HC Mike McCarthy indicated their backfield would be a committee approach moving forward. Awesome. McCarthy said the plan is to use Ty Montgomery and Aaron Jones in a committee, with Montgomery handling passing downs. The Packers ostensibly used a version of their planned running back committee on MNF vs. Detroit in Week 9. Ty Montgomery (41%) marginally out-snapped Aaron Jones (34%), while Montgomery also barely led the way in pass routes run (13 to 10, per PFF). Considering that the Packers will trail a ton without Rodgers at the controls, the back that comes away with more passing-down usage will have the most upside. Still, this backfield is rough to project moving forward, and owners will find it difficult to use either back as little more than RB2/3 plays if this is, in fact, a full-blown committee.

At press-time, it looks like the Patriots will be without Chris Hogan (shoulder) against the Broncos. Pats' beat writers indicated that Hogan was in a sling walking around the team facility on Wednesday. For fantasy, it's never "opportune" to lose a consistent WR2 like Hogan for any given week – but the timing of missing a bout with Denver on the road isn't too shabby. Both Aqib Talib and Chris Harris Jr. (out of the slot) are still playing at immensely high levels, even though the wheels have seemingly fallen off for Denver's season. Brandin Cooks and Danny Amendola will obviously see target bumps without Hogan -- his absence opens up 6.8 targets per game -- but this is just a monster spot for Rob Gronkowski to impose his will. Denver is getting whacked by enemy tight ends as opposing offenses are peppering the position nearly 29% of the time against the Broncos, the second-highest rate in the league. Only Washington (79.6) is allowing more YPG to tight ends than Denver (77.9). Look for Gronk to smash and spike in Week 10.

The weekly Jordan Reed injury update is actually somewhat positive this week! Reed (hamstring) participated in individual drills on Wednesday, after not doing anything at Redskins’ practice all of last week. He’s still incredibly questionable for Week 10. Meanwhile, Jamison Crowder (hamstring) also returned to do individual drills on Wednesday. Outside of one game, Reed has failed to produce his usual fantasy results all year and has dealt with toe, hip and now hamstring ailments since August. In place of Reed in Week 9, Vernon Davis led the Redskins in targets (26% share) and team air yards (36%) en route to a 6/72 receiving day. Based on historical data, Vernon Davis is the TE8 in per game PPR output when Jordan Reed misses over the past two years (six-game sample size). Davis will get a big bump in targets once again if both Reed and Crowder miss, nursing their hamstrings.

 

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TNF Quick Hits

For Seattle, FS Earl Thomas (hamstring) is out. Eddie Lacy (groin) is also out. … C.J. Prosise (ankle) wasn't listed on the Seahawks' final injury report for Week 10 against the Cardinals. … Paul Richardson (groin) is questionable for Week 10 against the Cardinals. He didn’t practice all week. … The Seahawks also activated DE Dion Jordan (knee) from reserve/PUP. He hasn’t played since 2014. … Meanwhile, Arizona’s injury report is almost entirely clean for TNF.

Offensive Quick Hits

Both Julio Jones (leg) and Dez Bryant (knee, ankle) did not practice on Wednesday. Both star WRs have been banged up all year, but there is not much concern about their Week 10 status yet. Demaryius Thomas (hamstring) also did not practice Wednesday. … Minnesota placed QB Sam Bradford on injured reserve with a knee injury, ending his season. Simultaneously, the Vikings activated QB Teddy Bridgewater (knee) from the reserve/PUP list. … The Packers released TE Martellus Bennett with a failure to disclose a medical condition designation. ...  Matt Forte (knee) did not practice on Wednesday. … Jaguars head coach Doug Marrone says he hasn't decided if Dede Westbrook (core muscle surgery) will be activated this week. … The Texans activated TE C.J. Fiedorowicz (concussion) from injured reserve. He’s eligible to play in Week 10. … Denver placed RT Menelik Watson on injured reserve with a foot injury, ending his season. The Broncos signed OT Cyrus Kouandjio to fill Watson’s roster spot. … Zay Jones (knee) did not practice Wednesday. … Cincinnati placed RT Jake Fisher (illness) on the reserve/non-football illness list, ending his season. Andre Smith will take his spot at RT. … Jeremy Hill (ankle) did not practice Wednesday. … Rams RB Malcolm Brown is out indefinitely with an MCL injury.

Defensive Quick Hits

Bucs CB Brent Grimes (shoulder) returned to practice Wednesday. … DE Ziggy Ansah (back) didn't practice on Wednesday. … Colts placed DL Henry Anderson on injured reserve with a laryngeal fracture, ending his season. … The Colts also announced that RCB Vontae Davis needs groin surgery and is expected to miss the rest of the season.






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