Evan Silva

Matchups

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Silva's Week 10 Matchups

Sunday, November 12, 2017


1:00 PM ET Games

Green Bay @ Chicago
Team Totals: Bears 22, Packers 16

Mitchell Trubisky’s fantasy results through four starts are QB24 > QB23 > QB29 > QB21, producing at a fringe two-quarterback-league level and showing no ability to exploit advantageous matchups with one of the NFL’s poorest pass-catcher corps, which lost top threat Zach Miller (broken leg) before Chicago’s Week 9 bye. … Coming off the open date, Jordan Howard is a fresh-legged home favorite against the Packers, who rank 11th in run-defense DVOA but have yielded the NFL’s third-most touchdowns (9) to running backs. Howard has averaged 25.2 touches over his last six games and is primed for monster usage. Howard plus the Bears’ D/ST is one of my favorite DFS correlation plays of Week 10. … Tarik Cohen’s weekly touch counts have been all over the place in Trubisky’s starts (7 > 15 > 1 > 5), while Green Bay surrenders the NFL’s tenth-fewest receiving yards (306) to backs. Cohen is a low-floor, PPR-specific flex option. … Slot receiver Kendall Wright has not cleared 50 yards or scored a touchdown in any of Trubisky’s four starts. … Tre McBride would be the best dart throw among Bears perimeter wideouts after dropping a 3/92/0 receiving line on five targets in Chicago’s pre-bye loss to New Orleans. McBride went catch-less in each of his prior two games, of course. … Dion Sims has blocked on 71% of his snaps as a Bear, but he is worth a long-shot streamer mention following the loss of Miller, who was leading Chicago in targets with Trubisky under center. The Packers have allowed the NFL’s fewest fantasy points to tight ends, although they will be without SS Morgan Burnett (groin) in Week 10.

Three straight appearances by Brett Hundley strongly suggest Hundley’s fantasy viability will be largely tied to rushing production, worrisome against a Bears defense yielding the NFL’s 12th-fewest rushing yards to quarterbacks (89). Sack and turnover prone and seemingly terrified in the pocket, Hundley is also an inviting streamer target for Chicago’s defense, which ranks ninth in sacks (23) and has held 6-of-8 quarterbacks faced to fantasy results of QB16 or worse. The Bears’ D/ST outlook is enhanced by Packers RT Bryan Bulaga’s year-ending ACL tear. … Negative game script threw a major wrench into Green Bay’s Week 9 running-game distribution, but it was nevertheless highly concerning that Aaron Jones logged just seven touches on 34% of the snaps, Ty Montgomery reemerged for six touches on 41% of the downs, and Jamaal Williams vultured a late goal-line score. We will have to resume evaluating this backfield on a week-by-week basis while considering both Jones and Montgomery high-risk flex plays with uncertain roles on a low-scoring team. The Bears have limited enemy running backs to 3.85 yards per carry and are allowing the league’s eighth-fewest receiving yards (306) to the position.

Hundley’s 2017 target distribution: Davante Adams 25; Jordy Nelson 20; Jones 14; Randall Cobb 12; Montgomery 6; Geronimo Allison and Martellus Bennett 4; Lance Kendricks 3. … Despite leading the team in targets with Hundley at quarterback, Adams has devolved into a volatile WR3 with stat lines of 2/12/0 > 7/53/0 in Hundley’s starts. In Week 10, Adams will mainly run routes at sturdy Bears RCB Prince Amukamara, who played a leading role in containing Kelvin Benjamin (3/65/0), Mike Wallace (3/30/0), and Michael Thomas (7/77/0) in Chicago’s last three games. … Nelson’s receiving lines in Hundley’s starts are 1/13/0 > 4/35/0. Because his value was so tied to an on-field mind-meld with Aaron Rodgers, Jordy’s outlook hit the gutter with the quarterback change. … Cobb’s numbers in Hundley’s starts are 2/15/0 > 5/58/0 on target counts of 4 and 5. Cobb is a fade against underrated Bears slot corner Bryce Callahan. … As Bennett was released and Kendricks isn’t very good, Packers tight ends should be avoided against a Chicago defense allowing the 11th-fewest fantasy points to the position.

Score Prediction: Bears 20, Packers 10

Editor's Note: DFS pro Andy Means shares four players you should build around in Week 10. Find the plays here!


Cleveland @ Detroit
Team Totals: Lions 27.5, Browns 16

Back home at domed Ford Field to face the Browns’ pass-funnel defense that heads to Detroit amid organizational turmoil, Matthew Stafford deserves to be a popular DFS cash-game play with three straight top-ten fantasy results on an up-tempo Lions team that ranks ninth in offensive pace. Cleveland has allowed 7-of-8 quarterbacks faced to log top-15 fantasy finishes, including top-six results to Case Keenum, Jacoby Brissett, and Andy Dalton. … With an emphasis on should, this should be a pass-first game plan from OC Jim Bob Cooter. The Browns are genuinely nails against the run, holding enemy running backs to 2.91 yards per carry and only three rushing TDs in eight games. Ameer Abdullah is a playable RB2/flex as a huge home favorite averaging 17.0 touches per game, but his matchup is as tough as it gets, and Abdullah hasn’t totaled 60 yards from scrimmage in a game since Week 4. He also fumbled twice in last week’s win over Green Bay – losing one – and could be on an increasingly short leash. … Theo Riddick’s touch totals over his last four games are 7 > 9 > 6 > 9, although his snap rates have declined chronologically in the last month (49% > 43% > 41% > 37%). As a passing-game specialist in a matchup where his team seems likely to play with a lead, Riddick is a tough Week 10 fantasy sell.

Stafford’s Weeks 1-9 target distribution: Golden Tate 64; Marvin Jones 62; Riddick 39; Eric Ebron 36; T.J. Jones 35; Abdullah 18; Darren Fells 17; Kenny Golladay 15. … Tate is on a tear with seven catches and 85-plus yards in three straight games, and his Week 10 matchup is unimposing against a Browns defense that got rinsed by Vikings slot WR Adam Thielen (5/98/1) in its last game. Tate has run more perimeter routes lately, but he should play over half of his Week 10 snaps inside. … Marvin Jones is even hotter with consecutive target totals of 8 > 14 > 11 > 11, six-plus catches in all four games, three touchdowns, and three 95-plus-yard performances in that span. Jones seems more likely than Tate to get the Jason McCourty treatment, although McCourty hasn’t played since Week 6 due to a high ankle sprain. Jones is a locked-in, every-week WR2 with WR1 upside in a Detroit offense averaging 43.3 pass attempts over its last three games. Jones leads the Lions in red-zone targets (9) and targets inside the ten (5). … T.J. Jones is scoreless on the season with just one 65-yard game among eight. Jones will lose snaps if Golladay (hamstring) returns from his five-game absence. … Ebron is a part-time player logging only 50% of the snaps, but if he is ever going to “happen,” this would be the game. Yielding the NFL’s third-most fantasy points to tight ends, Cleveland has surrendered big games to Steelers TEs (6/41/2), Ravens TEs (13/121/0), Bengals TEs (7/79/2), Jets TEs (7/63/1), Titans TEs (9/85/0), and Vikings TEs (9/55/1).

This is a strong streamer spot for Detroit’s D/ST against NFL interceptions leader DeShone Kizer, who all told has committed 13 turnovers in seven starts and won’t have Joe Thomas (triceps, I.R.) protecting his blind side. The Lions’ pass defense ranks 12th in DVOA and fourth in interceptions (10). … Despite Haloti Ngata’s year-ending injury, Detroit has maintained a stout run defense by holding enemy running backs to 3.83 yards per carry and a combined rushing line of 37/123/3.32/2 in the last two weeks. Conversely, the Lions have given up the NFL’s 11th-most receptions (48) to backs. Isaiah Crowell is a touchdown-or-bust flex option with only one game of 75 yards from scrimmage on the year. Duke Johnson logged double-digit touches in three straight weeks leading into Cleveland’s Week 9 bye and is playable in PPR leagues. … No Browns wide receiver has shown enough with Kizer at quarterback to be trusted against Detroit’s stout pass defense. Corey Coleman (hand) is eligible for activation from I.R./return in Week 11. … Hopefully, exciting rookie TE David Njoku’s usage will rise coming off the Browns’ open date. Njoku did see a season-high seven targets in Cleveland’s pre-bye loss to Minnesota, but he has topped 50% of the snaps in just 1-of-8 games. Rotational partner Seth DeValve hasn’t cleared 30 yards since Week 2.

Score Prediction: Lions 27, Browns 17

Pittsburgh @ Indianapolis
Team Totals: Steelers 27.5, Colts 17.5

Back from a Week 9 bye to rest his legs after averaging an absurd 32.8 touches per game in the previous five weeks, Le’Veon Bell is this week’s top fantasy running back play against the Colts, who coughed up a combined 101/476/4.71/4 rushing line to enemy backs in their last four games while yielding the NFL’s second-most receiving yards (497) to the position. Indianapolis’ defense is severely weakened by DE Henry Anderson’s year-ending laryngeal fracture; Anderson was the Colts’ top run stuffer and all-around disruptor up front. Bell annihilated Chuck Pagano’s unit for 142 total yards and a touchdown in November last year, and over the course of his career Le’Veon has scored 22-of-31 rushing touchdowns (71%) in away games. All five of Bell’s rushing scores have occurred on the road this season. … Ben Roethlisberger has posted top-12 fantasy finishes in just 2-of-8 weeks, but the Colts’ defense positions Big Ben for a shot at his season-best game beneath Lucas Oil Stadium’s roof. Roethlisberger flamed Pagano’s defense for three touchdowns and 11.05 yards per attempt on Thanksgiving last season, while this year’s Colts have yielded a league-high 44 completions of 20-plus yards, buoying passing-game floors by permitting top-14 fantasy results to 8-of-9 quarterbacks faced.

Ben’s Weeks 1-8 target distribution: Antonio Brown 94; Bell 45; JuJu Smith-Schuster and Martavis Bryant 36; Jesse James 28; Eli Rogers 14; Vance McDonald 9. … Brown enters a Week 10 blowup spot against a Colts defense playing musical chairs at cornerback while yielding the NFL’s second-most yards (1,661) to wide receivers. Even with Vontae Davis in the lineup last Thanksgiving, Brown torched Indy for 5/91/3, accounting for all three of Big Ben’s scores. This year, Brown leads the NFL in targets, catches (57), and receiving yards (835). … Bryant will apparently be involved this week, but Smith-Schuster has earned full-time No. 2 wideout duties. In the Steelers’ pre-bye win at Detroit, the exciting rookie logged season highs in targets (10) and production (7/193/1) on 78% of the snaps while rotating between Z and slot receiver. In Week 10, JuJu will run at least half of his routes against Colts slot CB Nate Hairston, a fifth-round rookie out of Temple. … Bryant hasn’t reached 50 yards in a game since Week 2 and would need to put something productive on tape and/or into a box score to be fantasy-start worthy … As the Steelers tried to increase McDonald’s usage at James’ expense before the bye, this tight end rotation looks safe to ignore with unclear playing time and health. McDonald missed the last game with a knee injury.

After streaming him in Week 9, I’m fading Jacoby Brissett against a Steelers defense that ranks fifth in pass-defense DVOA and fourth in sacks (26) while allowing the NFL’s second-fewest touchdown passes (6). It is worrisome for Indy’s vulnerable offensive line that Pittsburgh creates so much pressure despite ranking bottom five in blitz rate (20.3%); DC Keith Butler’s front gets home almost entirely with talent, and gets back DE Stephon Tuitt (back) this week after a multi-game absence. Brissett has taken a league-high 32 sacks. … Frank Gore out-snapped Marlon Mack 61% to 41% and out-touched him 20 to 9 in last week’s win, dispelling notions Mack was on the verge of overtaking Gore. Mack hurt himself by getting blown up twice for sacks in pass protection, one causing a fumble six. Pittsburgh’s run defense stiffened in its last three games, holding enemy backs to a 45/147/3.27/0 rushing line. Gore is a low-upside RB2/flex. Mack is a big-play-dependent leap of faith. … Week 9 superstar T.Y. Hilton is always worth betting on at home and indoors, but his Week 10 matchup is difficult against a Steelers defense that has allowed the NFL’s fourth-fewest yards (921) to wideouts. Just three receivers have cleared 65 yards versus Pittsburgh in eight games. … Jack Doyle’s high-volume role makes him an every-week TE1, but Doyle’s Week 10 draw is concerning for his ceiling against a Steelers defense yielding the NFL’s fifth-fewest yards to tight ends (356). I’m viewing Hilton and Doyle as locked-in starters in season-long leagues and tournament-only options in DFS.

Score Prediction: Steelers 30, Colts 17


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Evan Silva is a senior football editor for Rotoworld.com. He can be found on Twitter .
Email :Evan Silva



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