Happy Week 10, everyone. Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em is geared toward season-long leagues but can also be used for daily fantasy purposes, as these are players I’ll likely have some exposure to over the weekend.
QUARTERBACK
Start of the Week: Matthew Stafford vs. Browns: The overall QB10 in fantasy points per game, Stafford has been on fire of late. Somehow, his game seemed to take a turn for the best after he was injured in the Week 5 loss to the Panthers. After hurting his ankle and thigh in that game, Stafford turned it on and almost led the Lions to a comeback win. In the three games since, Stafford has finished as the QB11 (@ NO; 312 yards and 3 TDs), QB5 (vs. PIT; 423 yards), and QB7 (@ GB; 361 yards and 2 TDs). On paper, those have all been somewhat difficult matchups. Stafford now gets to come home in what is one of the ripest spots possible. The Browns have been brutal against the pass this season, checking in at 28th in pass-defense DVOA, 23rd in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, and 31st in opponent passer rating. Only two teams have yielded more touchdown passes. In the three games before the Browns’ Week 9 bye, Case Keenum managed the QB6 finish in Week 8, and Deshaun Watson was the QB2 in Week 6. With Kenny Golladay (hamstring) looking likely to come back this week, Stafford may have his full cast of pass-game weapons. The Lions’ implied team total of 27.5 points is the second-highest of Week 10.
Starts
Jared Goff vs. Texans: Goff exploded for the overall QB1 finish last week with his 311 yards and four touchdowns against the Giants on the road. Prior to that, Goff hadn’t managed a top-10 week since Week 3 against the 49ers. Week 9 was Goff’s first multi-touchdown effort since Week 4. Despite all that, Goff is tied for the league lead in yards per attempt (8.3) and is fantasy’s QB12 in points per game. He’s 21st in overall pass attempts and averages just over 18 completions per week. That’s incredible efficiency and a big feather in coach Sean McVay’s cap. Goff now gets another prime matchup at home, this time against a Texans defense that is 31st in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks and 30th in opponent yards per attempt. Only two teams have allowed more touchdown passes. Houston was just picked apart by Jacoby Brissett at home last week for 308 yards and two touchdowns as the overall QB9. Russell Wilson was the QB1 in Week 8 against the Texans, and Alex Smith the QB4 in Week 5. Over the last five weeks, only the Giants have allowed more fantasy points to quarterbacks. The Rams’ implied team total of 29 is the highest of Week 10.
Ben Roethlisberger at Colts: Big Ben is all name at this point; he’s the overall QB27 in fantasy points per game through nine weeks, averaging fewer fantasy points a week than Eli Manning, C.J. Beathard, Blake Bortles, and Trevor Siemian. Much of that has to do with the Steelers’ awful play in the red zone; they’re 31st in touchdown percentage inside the 20-yard line, ahead of only the Cardinals. Roethlisberger’s home-road splits are also a real thing, but the Steelers have actually played much better on the road. They’re scoring touchdowns on 56.25% of their red-zone possessions on the road compared to a dreadful 23.08% at home. Ben has just one multi-touchdown game since Week 2 and only two 300-yard outings on the year. But the Colts offer an appetizing matchup in a dome. Indianapolis is dead last in passing yards allowed, 25th in pass-defense DVOA, and 24th in fantasy points given up to quarterbacks. Tom Savage threw his first career touchdown against the Colts last week, Andy Dalton was the QB3 vs. Indy in Week 8, and Blake Bortles had 330 yards and one score in Week 7. The Colts also lost CB Vontae Davis to groin surgery before eventually releasing the disgruntled corner on Thursday morning. First-round FS Malik Hooker tore his ACL in Week 7. Top DL Henry Anderson suffered a fractured larynx last week and is done for the year. The Steelers’ implied team total of 26.75 is the fourth-highest for Week 10.
Tyrod Taylor vs. Saints: Taylor has played four games each at home and on the road this season. He’s 4-0 at home compared to 1-3 on the road, and Taylor has been sacked just seven times in Buffalo to 19 away from home. Dating back to last year, he’s simply been a much better player on his home field. Taylor averages 7.63 YPA at New Era Field with a 103.3 passer rating and 6:1 TD:INT ratio and one rushing score. On the road, those numbers dip to 6.21, 88.8, and 4:1 respectively. A unit to attack early in the season, the Saints’ defense has done a complete 180 thanks to rookie shutdown CB Marshon Lattimore, DE Cameron Jordan, and S Kenny Vaccaro. New Orleans has won six in a row and is fourth in pass-defense DVOA, 16th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, and ninth in sacks. But in home games, Taylor has weekly finishes of QB6, QB17, QB9, and QB9. Coach Sean McDermott was the defensive coordinator in the same division as the Saints for six seasons from 2011-16 before getting the Bills job, so he at least has some familiarity there. I’m willing to bet on Taylor’s home success, solid offensive line, and improved pass-game arsenal with the addition of Kelvin Benjamin and return of Charles Clay (knee) to make Taylor a viable 12-team streamer.
Editor’s Note: FanDuel is hosting the Rotoworld Beat the Writers Series, where you can play against five Rotoworld football writers for your chance at cash prizes and free entry into their Sunday Million. Put your knowledge to the test!
Sits
Marcus Mariota vs. Bengals: Mariota has just one 300-yard passing game this season and has yet to throw for three touchdowns in a week. He hasn’t finished as a top-12 fantasy quarterback since Week 1 but remains the QB15 in points per game. Since injuring his hamstring in Week 4 at Houston when he ran for two touchdowns, Mariota has run the ball just six times total for 14 yards. It’s pretty evident he and/or the Titans have held back on the designed runs since the injury. Coach Mike Mularkey said this week he “hopes” to increase Mariota’s running plays going forward, but this is a situation where it’d be best to see it to believe it. The Bengals offer another somewhat tough matchup for quarterbacks. Cincinnati is No. 7 in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, 17th in pass-defense DVOA, and 12th in sacks. Only Jacoby Brissett (QB10) has a top-12 finish against the Bengals since Week 3. Corey Davis returned from his hamstring injury for the Titans last week, but he’s had very minimal reps in practice or games since being drafted, and Delanie Walker (ankle) isn’t 100 percent. Both the Titans and Bengals play at a slow pace, and Tennessee is 10th in run-play percentage. The volume just isn’t there for Mariota to be able to have that monster game. He’s devolved to a two-quarterback league option only for the time being until we see the Titans unleash him. The 40.5-point total for Bengals-Titans is the third-lowest of the week.
Jacoby Brissett vs. Steelers: Brissett has been a pleasant surprise as the overall QB14 through nine weeks, and he’s coming off his best game of the year in Houston where he threw for 308 yards and two touchdowns in a road upset. He now gets to come back home, but the matchup with Pittsburgh is one of the toughest in the league. The Steelers are No. 2 in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, No. 2 in pass yards allowed, No. 4 in sacks, No. 5 in total defense, and No. 5 in pass-defense DVOA. Only DeShone Kizer in Week 1 and Matthew Stafford in Week 8 have managed top-12 finishes against Pittsburgh. The Colts’ implied team total of 16.75 points is the fourth-lowest of Week 10. The Colts have a Week 11 bye before hosting the Titans in Week 12, where Brissett will again be a streaming option. However, after that, the schedule is brutal with back-to-back road games in Jacksonville and Buffalo before hosting the Broncos and then going to Baltimore.
Philip Rivers at Jaguars: Rivers was a huge letdown in Week 8 against the Patriots, but attempted just six passes before halftime that day due to a one-play opening drive followed by a safety. He’s currently the overall QB15 and QB16 in fantasy points per game. Rivers hasn’t had a 300-yard game since Week 4. A date with the Jaguars in Jacksonville isn’t one that will cure the blues. The Jaguars are No. 1 in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, No. 1 in sacks, No. 1 in pass yards allowed, No. 1 in pass-defense DVOA, and No. 3 in total defense. That pretty much sums this one up, as the Jaguars boast the fiercest pass rush and arguably the league’s top cornerback duo. Look for CB Jalen Ramsey to take away Keenan Allen. The Chargers’ best chance at moving the ball will be with Melvin Gordon, but Jacksonville added stud DT Marcell Dareus ahead of the trade deadline in an effort to plug that hole. This is a defense to try and avoid on a weekly basis.
Happy Week 10, everyone. Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em is geared toward season-long leagues but can also be used for daily fantasy purposes, as these are players I’ll likely have some exposure to over the weekend.
QUARTERBACK
Start of the Week: Matthew Stafford vs. Browns: The overall QB10 in fantasy points per game, Stafford has been on fire of late. Somehow, his game seemed to take a turn for the best after he was injured in the Week 5 loss to the Panthers. After hurting his ankle and thigh in that game, Stafford turned it on and almost led the Lions to a comeback win. In the three games since, Stafford has finished as the QB11 (@ NO; 312 yards and 3 TDs), QB5 (vs. PIT; 423 yards), and QB7 (@ GB; 361 yards and 2 TDs). On paper, those have all been somewhat difficult matchups. Stafford now gets to come home in what is one of the ripest spots possible. The Browns have been brutal against the pass this season, checking in at 28th in pass-defense DVOA, 23rd in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, and 31st in opponent passer rating. Only two teams have yielded more touchdown passes. In the three games before the Browns’ Week 9 bye, Case Keenum managed the QB6 finish in Week 8, and Deshaun Watson was the QB2 in Week 6. With Kenny Golladay (hamstring) looking likely to come back this week, Stafford may have his full cast of pass-game weapons. The Lions’ implied team total of 27.5 points is the second-highest of Week 10.
Starts
Jared Goff vs. Texans: Goff exploded for the overall QB1 finish last week with his 311 yards and four touchdowns against the Giants on the road. Prior to that, Goff hadn’t managed a top-10 week since Week 3 against the 49ers. Week 9 was Goff’s first multi-touchdown effort since Week 4. Despite all that, Goff is tied for the league lead in yards per attempt (8.3) and is fantasy’s QB12 in points per game. He’s 21st in overall pass attempts and averages just over 18 completions per week. That’s incredible efficiency and a big feather in coach Sean McVay’s cap. Goff now gets another prime matchup at home, this time against a Texans defense that is 31st in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks and 30th in opponent yards per attempt. Only two teams have allowed more touchdown passes. Houston was just picked apart by Jacoby Brissett at home last week for 308 yards and two touchdowns as the overall QB9. Russell Wilson was the QB1 in Week 8 against the Texans, and Alex Smith the QB4 in Week 5. Over the last five weeks, only the Giants have allowed more fantasy points to quarterbacks. The Rams’ implied team total of 29 is the highest of Week 10.
Ben Roethlisberger at Colts: Big Ben is all name at this point; he’s the overall QB27 in fantasy points per game through nine weeks, averaging fewer fantasy points a week than Eli Manning, C.J. Beathard, Blake Bortles, and Trevor Siemian. Much of that has to do with the Steelers’ awful play in the red zone; they’re 31st in touchdown percentage inside the 20-yard line, ahead of only the Cardinals. Roethlisberger’s home-road splits are also a real thing, but the Steelers have actually played much better on the road. They’re scoring touchdowns on 56.25% of their red-zone possessions on the road compared to a dreadful 23.08% at home. Ben has just one multi-touchdown game since Week 2 and only two 300-yard outings on the year. But the Colts offer an appetizing matchup in a dome. Indianapolis is dead last in passing yards allowed, 25th in pass-defense DVOA, and 24th in fantasy points given up to quarterbacks. Tom Savage threw his first career touchdown against the Colts last week, Andy Dalton was the QB3 vs. Indy in Week 8, and Blake Bortles had 330 yards and one score in Week 7. The Colts also lost CB Vontae Davis to groin surgery before eventually releasing the disgruntled corner on Thursday morning. First-round FS Malik Hooker tore his ACL in Week 7. Top DL Henry Anderson suffered a fractured larynx last week and is done for the year. The Steelers’ implied team total of 26.75 is the fourth-highest for Week 10.
Tyrod Taylor vs. Saints: Taylor has played four games each at home and on the road this season. He’s 4-0 at home compared to 1-3 on the road, and Taylor has been sacked just seven times in Buffalo to 19 away from home. Dating back to last year, he’s simply been a much better player on his home field. Taylor averages 7.63 YPA at New Era Field with a 103.3 passer rating and 6:1 TD:INT ratio and one rushing score. On the road, those numbers dip to 6.21, 88.8, and 4:1 respectively. A unit to attack early in the season, the Saints’ defense has done a complete 180 thanks to rookie shutdown CB Marshon Lattimore, DE Cameron Jordan, and S Kenny Vaccaro. New Orleans has won six in a row and is fourth in pass-defense DVOA, 16th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, and ninth in sacks. But in home games, Taylor has weekly finishes of QB6, QB17, QB9, and QB9. Coach Sean McDermott was the defensive coordinator in the same division as the Saints for six seasons from 2011-16 before getting the Bills job, so he at least has some familiarity there. I’m willing to bet on Taylor’s home success, solid offensive line, and improved pass-game arsenal with the addition of Kelvin Benjamin and return of Charles Clay (knee) to make Taylor a viable 12-team streamer.
Editor’s Note: FanDuel is hosting the Rotoworld Beat the Writers Series, where you can play against five Rotoworld football writers for your chance at cash prizes and free entry into their Sunday Million. Put your knowledge to the test!
Sits
Marcus Mariota vs. Bengals: Mariota has just one 300-yard passing game this season and has yet to throw for three touchdowns in a week. He hasn’t finished as a top-12 fantasy quarterback since Week 1 but remains the QB15 in points per game. Since injuring his hamstring in Week 4 at Houston when he ran for two touchdowns, Mariota has run the ball just six times total for 14 yards. It’s pretty evident he and/or the Titans have held back on the designed runs since the injury. Coach Mike Mularkey said this week he “hopes” to increase Mariota’s running plays going forward, but this is a situation where it’d be best to see it to believe it. The Bengals offer another somewhat tough matchup for quarterbacks. Cincinnati is No. 7 in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, 17th in pass-defense DVOA, and 12th in sacks. Only Jacoby Brissett (QB10) has a top-12 finish against the Bengals since Week 3. Corey Davis returned from his hamstring injury for the Titans last week, but he’s had very minimal reps in practice or games since being drafted, and Delanie Walker (ankle) isn’t 100 percent. Both the Titans and Bengals play at a slow pace, and Tennessee is 10th in run-play percentage. The volume just isn’t there for Mariota to be able to have that monster game. He’s devolved to a two-quarterback league option only for the time being until we see the Titans unleash him. The 40.5-point total for Bengals-Titans is the third-lowest of the week.
Jacoby Brissett vs. Steelers: Brissett has been a pleasant surprise as the overall QB14 through nine weeks, and he’s coming off his best game of the year in Houston where he threw for 308 yards and two touchdowns in a road upset. He now gets to come back home, but the matchup with Pittsburgh is one of the toughest in the league. The Steelers are No. 2 in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, No. 2 in pass yards allowed, No. 4 in sacks, No. 5 in total defense, and No. 5 in pass-defense DVOA. Only DeShone Kizer in Week 1 and Matthew Stafford in Week 8 have managed top-12 finishes against Pittsburgh. The Colts’ implied team total of 16.75 points is the fourth-lowest of Week 10. The Colts have a Week 11 bye before hosting the Titans in Week 12, where Brissett will again be a streaming option. However, after that, the schedule is brutal with back-to-back road games in Jacksonville and Buffalo before hosting the Broncos and then going to Baltimore.
Philip Rivers at Jaguars: Rivers was a huge letdown in Week 8 against the Patriots, but attempted just six passes before halftime that day due to a one-play opening drive followed by a safety. He’s currently the overall QB15 and QB16 in fantasy points per game. Rivers hasn’t had a 300-yard game since Week 4. A date with the Jaguars in Jacksonville isn’t one that will cure the blues. The Jaguars are No. 1 in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, No. 1 in sacks, No. 1 in pass yards allowed, No. 1 in pass-defense DVOA, and No. 3 in total defense. That pretty much sums this one up, as the Jaguars boast the fiercest pass rush and arguably the league’s top cornerback duo. Look for CB Jalen Ramsey to take away Keenan Allen. The Chargers’ best chance at moving the ball will be with Melvin Gordon, but Jacksonville added stud DT Marcell Dareus ahead of the trade deadline in an effort to plug that hole. This is a defense to try and avoid on a weekly basis.
RUNNING BACK
Start of the Week: Jerick McKinnon at Redskins: Since Dalvin Cook’s season-ending ACL tear in Week 4, McKinnon is the overall RB4 in points per game behind only Leonard Fournette, Ezekiel Elliott, and Melvin Gordon. He’s an obvious must-start to most, but the fact that there are still start-sit questions being asked about McKinnon makes him a fit in this piece. McKinnon had a down Week 7 when Latavius Murray had his big 18-113-1 day against the Ravens, but it was back to McKinnon as the clear top dog in Week 8 against Cleveland. In that London affair, McKinnon totaled 122 yards and a touchdown on 20 touches. The Vikings are now coming off their bye for a date in D.C. The Redskins are 15th in fantasy points allowed to running backs and 13th in run-defense DVOA. Washington was flamed by Elliott for 150 yards and two touchdowns in Week 8, and Carlos Hyde managed 75 total yards and two scores in Week 6. McKinnon has seen at least 20 touches in three of the last four and is fourth among all running backs with 6.3 targets per game since Week 6. He’s a surefire top-15 option this week with massive upside in a game with a one-point spread.
Starts
Duke Johnson at Lions: Johnson is the overall RB17 in PPR leagues through nine weeks. His snap rate has actually decreased in recent games, playing less than 50% of the snaps in three-straight games, though Week 8 in London was cut short due to a possible concussion that Johnson was cleared from afterward. But Johnson has seen double-digit touches in back-to-back games and continues to lead the Browns in targets. His 5.7 targets per game over the past four weeks is ninth-most among all running backs. The Lions are 24th in fantasy points allowed to running backs and have surrendered the 10th-most catches to the position. Johnson is one of the main focal points on offense for Cleveland but could suffer a bit with the return of Corey Coleman (hand), though it may take a week or two for Coleman to get back up to speed. As 11.5-point road underdogs, this sets up as a game for Johnson to have success rather than early-down grinder Isaiah Crowell.
James White at Broncos: White’s 43 catches are second to only Christian McCaffrey (54) among all running backs, and White is averaging six targets per game over the last four weeks while coming off his best receiving day of the season in Week 8 when he went for 85 yards on five grabs. Denver handles opposing running backs really well, yielding the fifth-fewest fantasy points to the position and fourth-fewest catches for the second-fewest yards. But with Chris Hogan (shoulder) looking very doubtful for Sunday night and Brandin Cooks and Danny Amendola likely to be locked up in Aqib Talib and Chris Harris’ coverage outside and in the slot, the way to beat this defense is likely with Rob Gronkowski between the hashmarks and White slipping out in space. These two teams met last Week 15, and White saw a season-high eight targets in that game. New England’s implied team total of 27 points is the third-highest of the week.
Bilal Powell at Bucs: Matt Forte out-snapped Powell 32-15 last week against the Bills, and Forte exploded for two touchdowns and 96 yards on 18 touches while Powell went for 74 yards on nine carries. Both obviously had strong games, but this backfield is real tough to predict on a week-to-week basis. Things may be easier this time around, as Forte’s knee swelled up this week, and he didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday. If Forte sits, which seems likely at this point, Powell should slide right into lead-back duties. In Week 4 when Powell was healthy and Forte missed, Powell played 46-of-70 snaps and ran for 163 yards and one touchdown on 21 carries against the Jaguars, adding four catches for 27 yards. Rookie Elijah McGuire played 19 snaps that day and managed 131 yards and one score on 12 touches. Expect a similar situation this week against the Bucs if Forte misses. Tampa Bay has been dreadful defensively, checking in at 29th in fantasy points allowed to running backs and 22nd in run-defense DVOA. Saints rookie Alvin Kamara was the overall RB1 against the Bucs last week, both Christian McCaffrey and Jonathan Stewart were top-30 RBs in Week 8, and LeSean McCoy was the overall RB2 in Week 6. This defense is brutal, and word out of Tampa Bay is the Bucs’ players are already giving up on the season. Powell has RB1 upside if Forte sits.
Sits
Aaron Jones at Bears: Coming off a big Week 7 against the Saints when Jones ran for 131 yards and a score on 17 carries, the Packers came out of their bye last week and gave Jones just five carries in a timeshare with Ty Montgomery. Jones managed seven total touches for 11 yards, while Montgomery turned his six into 51 yards. Earlier this week, coach Mike McCarthy said the plan moving forward will be to use Montgomery in passing situations. Jones blew a blitz pickup last week against the Lions. The Bears aren’t an unbeatable defense on paper, as they’re 18th in fantasy points allowed to running backs and 15th in run-defense DVOA. However, Chicago plays much better at home, allowing 15.75 points per game at Soldier Field compared to 27 on the road. The Bears could easily be 4-0 at home. The Packers are 5.5-point underdogs and could be chasing points again on a short week on the road. That could mean Montgomery again out-snaps Jones if the Packers play a lot of hurry-up and catch-up like they did Monday night versus Detroit. The Packers really should be leaning on Jones as the focal point of their offense sans Aaron Rodgers (collarbone), but coach Mike McCarthy didn’t commit to it at all in Week 9. Jones is tough to trust as anything more than an RB3 with an extremely low floor against an underrated defense.
Frank Gore vs. Steelers: In a game the Colts were able to get a lead and control the ball, Gore received a six-week high 17 carries against the Texans, but turned them into just 51 yards (3.0 YPC), adding three catches for 26 yards. The veteran out-touched rookie Marlon Mack 20-9. As 10-point underdogs this week, Gore is unlikely to get nearly that usage and could easily get out-snapped by playmaker Mack. The Steelers are much better against the pass, but they’re no slouches in run defense. Pittsburgh is No. 9 in run-defense DVOA and are expected to get stud DE Stephon Tuitt back from a back injury that cost him Weeks 7 and 8 ahead of the bye. He’s not even on the injury report. Gore just doesn’t have much left and is nothing more than a low-upside RB3 option.
Rob Kelley vs. Vikings: Kelley had his first top-12 finish of the season last week in the upset win over the Seahawks. He rushed for two touchdowns, but both were one-yard plunges, and Kelley managed just 18 yards total on 14 carries. He has averaged 3.0 YPC or less in 4-of-6 games played this season and simply isn’t very good. On a positive note, the Redskins are expected to get back some offensive line help this Sunday. But Kelley’s poor play plus the Vikings’ stout run defense outweigh that positive. Minnesota is No. 1 in fantasy points allowed to running backs, No. 4 in run-defense DVOA, and allow just 3.5 YPC to the position. Kelley offers nothing in the pass game, and this is a pass-first offense. He’s a true TD-or-bust play against a defense that has allowed just two rushing scores. There are far better options on fantasy benches than Kelley.
WIDE RECEIVER
Start of the Week: Marvin Jones vs. Browns: Admittedly, I’ve been skeptical of Jones in recent weeks, but he kept proving me wrong. Over the last four weeks, Jones leads all receivers in targets at 12 per game. He’s seen double-digit targets each of the past three weeks, even with Golden Tate playing in all three of them despite a shoulder scare. Jones was the overall WR2 last week, hanging a 7-107-2 line on the Packers. In the last three, Jones is averaging 110.3 yards with three total touchdowns. He’s looking like the scoring machine from his Cincinnati days that landed him the big contract with the Lions. Jones is a no-brainer start in this spot against a Browns defense that is 28th in pass-defense DVOA and dead-last in DVOA against opposing No. 1 receivers. Browns No. 1 CB Jason McCourty has missed the past two games with an ankle injury and remains limited at practice this week coming out of the bye. It suggests he’s battling a high-ankle sprain and probably isn’t 100 percent. Only two teams have given up more touchdown passes than the Browns. Detroit’s 27.5-point implied team total is the second-highest of Week 10. The Lions’ pass-play percentage of 62.43% is the eighth-highest mark in the league. They throw the ball to score.
Starts
JuJu Smith-Schuster at Colts: With Martavis Bryant suspended by the team and inactive Week 8 in Detroit, Smith-Schuster played 78.1% of the snaps and saw a season-high 10 targets. He turned them into an explosive 7-193-1 line while scoring a 97-yard touchdown. Bryant has been running with the first-team offense this week in practice and is expected to be active against the Colts, but it’s hard to justify taking Smith-Schuster out of the lineup. Bryant has topped 50 yards just once and hasn’t scored since Week 2. Smith-Schuster has four touchdowns in that span. Even with Bryant active, Smith-Schuster remains a strong fantasy play against a horrid pass defense. The Colts are 26th in fantasy points allowed to receivers, 32nd in yards yielded to the position, and have given up the most pass plays of 20-plus yards. The Colts also just cut CB Vontae Davis, who needs groin surgery. This pass defense is a mess, and the front-seven can’t get consistent pressure. The Steelers should be able to move the ball at will in the Lucas Oil Stadium dome. Pittsburgh’s implied team total of 26.75 points is the fourth-highest of the week. JuJu is a solid WR3/FLEX with upside.
Adam Humphries vs. Jets: Mike Evans blindsided Saints CB Marshon Lattimore last week. He wasn’t booted from the game, but the league later came on strong with a one-game suspension earlier this week. Evans appealed, but it was denied, so he’s out for Sunday. Humphries, Tampa Bay’s slot receiver, figures to see a boost in snaps and will likely play in two-wide sets opposite DeSean Jackson. Rookie Chris Godwin should also see an uptick in playing time. Humphries has just 31 grabs on the year and hasn’t scored a touchdown. The Jets have really struggled against opposing receivers, allowing the fourth-most catches and second-most touchdowns to the position. The total on the Jets-Bucs game has risen from 41.5 points to 43.5 over the last 36 hours and is setting up as a potential shootout. Humphries is on most waivers wires and is ultra-cheap in DFS.
Robert Woods vs. Texans: Woods has seen at least five targets in every game this season and currently paces the Rams with 49 total targets, tow more than Cooper Kupp, eight more than Todd Gurley, and 18 more than Sammy Watkins. Both Woods and Watkins scored long touchdowns last week in the blowout win over the Giants, and Woods again scored a short touchdown. They were Woods’ first two end-zone visits of the season. The Texans have been getting shredded through the air, allowing the overall WR1 finish to T.Y. Hilton last week after yielding the WR4 to Paul Richardson and WR11 to Tyler Lockett in Week 8. All three of Woods, Watkins, and Kupp are in play for the Rams on Sunday, but Woods is the most reliable and has developed a strong rapport with Jared Goff. Woods has scored at least 10 PPR point in five of the past six games and should continue that streak with upside. The Rams’ implied team total of 29 points is the highest of Week 10.
Sits
Jordy Nelson at Bears: Nelson may be the biggest loser through two weeks without Aaron Rodgers. In those two games with Brett Hundley at quarterback, Nelson has seen a total of 11 targets, catching five for 48 scoreless yards. Hundley simply plays way too scared and looks at the pass rush too often, and it has caused him to not see wide-open receivers at time. Nelson was one of those last week against the Lions when he was running completely free down the left seam for what should have been an easy touchdown. After being a WR1/2 with Rodgers, Nelson is more of a WR3/4 with Hundley and someone to make an effort not to use in lineups. The Bears aren’t a roll-over defense, particularly at home where they allow 15.75 points per game. Chicago is 13th in fantasy points allowed to receivers and has given up just eight touchdown passes all year. Four of those touchdowns came against Rodgers and the Packers on a Thursday night early in the year. The Bears haven’t given up a touchdown pass in the past three games. Davante Adams has apparently become Hundley’s safety blanket and caught his touchdown in relief back in Week 6. Nelson has the name recognition and is tough to sit, but it makes sense to do it. The Bears D/ST is an elite streamer.
Eric Decker vs. Bengals: Decker didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday due to an illness, but players rarely sit out on Sundays with illnesses. He should suit up after scoring his first touchdown of the season last week against the Ravens. But with Corey Davis back from injury last week to play 75% of the snaps, Decker was the biggest loser. Decker played a season-low 44.2% of the reps behind both Davis and Rishard Matthews. In an offense that prefers to run the ball, that’s not enough action for Decker, who will run most of his routes against Darqueze Dennard on Sunday. Dennard is Pro Football Focus’ No. 31 corner, and the Bengals are No. 6 in fantasy points allowed to receivers. Decker would have to score a red-zone touchdown to return value in this matchup. The 40.5-point total in Bengals-Titans is the third-lowest of Week 10.
Keenan Allen at Jaguars: Like Nelson above, Allen’s “name” is hard to sit and probably not realistic in a number of 12-team leagues. But this is as tough as a matchup as it gets for receivers, and Allen’s targets have been way down compared to earlier in the year. After seeing target counts of 10-10-9-11-12 in Weeks 1-5, Allen’s targets have dipped to 9-7-5 in Weeks 6-8 ahead of last week’s bye. He hasn’t hit 100 yards since Week 4 or scored a touchdown since Week 1. Allen now gets to go to battle with Jaguars No. 1 CB Jalen Ramsey, who figures to trail Allen all day, even in the slot. Ramsey is Pro Football Focus’ No. 2 cover corner out of 115 qualifiers and has yet to allow a touchdown in his coverage. The Jaguars are No. 1 in pass-defense DVOA, No. 1 in fantasy points allowed to receivers, and No. 1 in pass yards allowed. Allen is a major Week 10 bust candidate.
TIGHT END
Start of the Week: Cameron Brate vs. Jets: Brate scored a touchdown in each game from Weeks 3-6 but has been held out of the end zone the past three games. Over the last four weeks, he’s still eighth among all tight ends, seeing 6.5 targets per game. Week 9 against the Saints was the first time he’s been held under 60 yards or without a touchdown since the season opener. This Sunday looks like a bounce-back spot for Brate. The Jets are 28th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, 26th in yards given up, and only the Giants have given up more touchdowns to the position. Ryan Fitzpatrick is taking over under center for the Bucs, but he and Brate have a connection that was put on display in Week 6 against the Cardinals when Brate went 6-76-1. Both coach Todd Bowles and Cardinals DC James Bettcher run similar schemes after Bettcher was a Bowles understudy before he left to take the Jets job. Brate is a good bet for a score in a game that has seen its total rise from 41.5 points to 43.5 in the last two days.
Starts
Eric Ebron vs. Browns: Yup, you’re reading this right. Eric. Ebron. A total bust as a summer hype piece, Ebron has scored just one touchdown this season, all the way back in Week 2 against the Giants. He’s topped 50 yards just once, going for 58 yards on two grabs two weeks ago. Ebron’s snaps are down with Darren Fells taking over a larger role as a blocker, but Ebron has played better in recent weeks and now has a delectable matchup on tap against an awful Browns defense. Cleveland has yielded the most catches, third-most yards, second-most touchdowns, and third-most fantasy points to tight ends. Ebron is available in most leagues, and I’ve personally picked him up as a streamer in a couple spots where I’ve been using Jared Cook, who is on bye. The Lions throw the ball a ton and have the second-highest implied team total of the week at 27.5 points.
Garrett Celek vs. Giants: Like Ebron above, this is a complete matchup play. Celek has caught exactly one pass in each of the seven games he’s been targeted, but the 49ers just lost George Kittle to an ankle injury last week, which will cost him Week 10, and Cole Hikutini was sent to I.R. with an MCL issue. That puts Celek at the top of the depth chart in an offense that has Marquise Goodwin and Aldrick Robinson as its top two receivers. The Giants are horrendous against tight ends, allowing the most fantasy points, third-most yards, and most touchdowns to the position. Celek should see a handful of targets and is a decent bet to score. Rams TE Tyler Higbee scored a short touchdown last week, and rookie teammate Gerald Everett snuck loose for a 44-yard gain. Celek is a last-gasp grab for tight end-desperate owners looking for an avenue toward a touchdown.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins at Bucs: It’s a #RevengeGame for Seferian-Jenkins, who said this week’s game will officially close the chapter on his time in Tampa Bay. A failed second-rounder of the Bucs who drew the ire of coach Dirk Koetter before his eventual release last year, ASJ has found a home in New York and is averaging 5.75 targets per game the last four weeks. He had a touchdown taken away last week, and another one was called back falsely back in Week 6. The Bucs have handled tight ends well, allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points to the position, but you can bet Josh McCown will be trying to get Seferian-Jenkins the ball in an important game for both players. The Jets-Bucs game looks to be one of the better games to attack for fantasy purposes.
Sits
Charles Clay vs. Saints: Clay hasn’t played since going down in Week 5 with a knee injury that required a scope. He’s long battled knee problems and will for the remainder of his career. Clay is 28 going on 38 with his body and draws a tough matchup against a Saints defense that has allowed the fewest catches to tight ends and just shut down Cameron Brate last week. S Kenny Vaccaro has been dynamite in coverage, picking off three balls and not allowing a touchdown. Also working against Clay is he’s returning from a multi-week injury, which is always a red flag in the first game back. Kelvin Benjamin will also be making his debut as the Bills’ No. 1 receiver.
Julius Thomas at Panthers: Thomas set season-bests across the board last week against the Raiders, posting a 6-84-1 line on eight targets. It was his first touchdown of the season after the talk all summer in Dolphins camp was about how Thomas would catch double-digit touchdowns. Consider Week 9 an outlier performance until we see it again from Thomas. The Panthers have handled opposing tight ends, allowing the 10th-fewest fantasy points to the position, and they recently got back stud MLB Luke Kuechly and S Kurt Coleman from injuries. Miami’s 15-point implied team total is microscopic and easily the lowest of Week 10.
Tyler Kroft at Titans: Kroft had a big 59-yard grab against the Jaguars last week, but otherwise was held to just one other grab. He’s been held to fewer than 50 yards in three of the past four games. This Cincinnati offense ran just 39 total offensive plays last week. They play incredibly slow, and so do the Titans. This looks like a game to completely avoid outside of A.J. Green. The Titans are 15th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, but second-year S Kevin Byard has been great in coverage. Kroft is a mere TE2 this week in a game with a 40.5-point total.