Stephen Keech

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RotoGrinder NFL Primer Week 10

Friday, November 10, 2017


We’re onto Week 10 as the regular season continues to fly by.

 

 

For as quickly as the season has moved along, it seems like we’ve been dealing with the Ezekiel Elliott saga for years amidst constant appeals on a weekly basis. As of this writing, it appears he’s not going to play and could miss the next few games if his December 1st appeals hearing holds true. I’ve learned not to doubt Elliott’s lawyer’s ability to find a loophole, so I’ll need to see an official inactives list before I completely buy in.

 

 

 

Targets, Touches and Percentage of Workload


Let’s get into the Week 10 breakdown with the Targets page, where you can find a full breakdown of targets, including red-zone data, with snap information available all in one place.


 

Antonio Brown ($9,300 on FanDuel, $9,500 on DraftKings) – Thanks to plenty of value to plug in alongside him at WR, and at many other spots, Brown isn’t hard to squeeze in this week. I don’t see a close second in terms of high-end receivers on the main slate so while he’ll carry a high ownership percentage in tournaments, I’ll look to differentiate elsewhere. He’s seen fewer than ten targets in just one game this season – he saw nine targets in that outlier performance – giving him both an elite floor and ceiling on a weekly basis. This matchup is particularly friendly, as the Colts have struggled to generate much of a pass rush and have allowed a league-high 8.3 yards per attempt to date. Brown’s to-date numbers are still strong despite the Steelers offense having sputtered some to start the year, and I don’t see him slowing down any time soon.

 

 

Golden Tate ($7,400 on FanDuel, $6,800 on DraftKings) – Marvin Jones has stolen the show over the past three weeks with a combined 36 targets to Tate’s 24, but I see that swinging back in Tate’s favor this weekend with Jones likely to end up tangling some with Jason McCourty on the perimeter. Tate will avoid him while he runs in the slot – he’s spent about 15% of his time lined up out wide – so I fully expect him to see double-digit targets for the first time since September. Even with a mild drop off of late, Tate is still sitting on a healthy 64 looks on the year and his high reception rate makes those targets especially valuable on full-point PPR sites. Game flow is a bit of a concern with the Lions coming in as nearly two-touchdown favorites, but they’re going to have to build that lead somehow and Tate makes a lot of sense for a team that doesn’t really like to run the ball (DET ranks 25th in run play percentage).

 

 

Robby Anderson ($6,500 on FanDuel, $5,200 on DraftKings) – A ton of attention is landing in the direction of the receivers on the opposite sideline thanks to Mike Evans injury, but Anderson makes a much stronger case as a tournament play. There honestly isn’t much about Anderson’s performance that jumps out on the targets page, but he is 14th in targets among WRs over the last four weeks with 28 and is 19th in air yards on the season, so there is definitely upside at his current price tag. There is very little reason to fear the Tampa pass defense – they have been the friendliest matchup for opposing receivers to date and have actually been one of the toughest on tight ends, which should put a heavier workload onto the receivers and backs. I can see pulling the trigger on Anderson in cash games on FanDuel, but his $5,200 tag on DraftKings will probably keep him as a GPP-only play for me there.

 

 

 

Week 10 Snap Story


Snap data is also available on the Targets page, but we’ll highlight a few players from this tab to hit on some positions outside of WR. The snaps tab is a sortable page where you can quickly see data from recent weeks in addition to seasonal and week-to-week filters.

 

 

Carlos Hyde ($6,700 on FanDuel, $6,300 on DraftKings) – Hyde was ejected from last weekend’s game with the Cardinals after C.J. Beathard took a heavy hit and Hyde retaliated, or his Week 9 snap total would have been a little higher. He still came in at a hefty 76% rate which ranked third among RBs on this slate, but Hyde’s price certainly doesn’t reflect that. The lack of explosiveness in San Francisco’s offense is going to cap Hyde’s rushing yardage upside, but he’s seeing a big target workload of late – counts of 6, 8, 9 and 11 in his last four games – and is the goal-line back, so he’s got very little competition when it comes to big point producing plays. It’s a strong week to pay up at RB with Bell, Gurley and Fournette all in plus spots, but Hyde is my favorite mid-range option of the bunch when you aren’t paying a premium.

 

 

Orleans Darkwa ($5,300 on FanDuel, $4,500 on DraftKings) – This one is more of a dart throw given that Darkwa isn’t going to see much more than a 55-60% snap rate even if the game works in his favor, but he’s seeing a lot of usage when he does find himself on the field. Darkwa was able to rack up 16 carries last weekend despite the Giants being completely embarrassed by the Rams almost all afternoon, and he carried it 21 times two weeks prior in a game the Giants surprisingly won in Denver. This is another spot where the Giants should be able to choose their plan of attack and being a home favorite tends to bode well for lead backs, so the GPP potential is there. It doesn’t hurt that Darkwa isn’t a complete loss in the passing game, as he’s seeing a couple of targets each week on top of his rushing workload. Oh, and the 49ers have been getting shredded on the ground, allowing just under 120 rushing YPG.

 

 

Marquise Goodwin ($5,300 on FanDuel, $3,800 on DraftKings) – Not for the faint of heart, Goodwin deserves a long look as a DraftKings tournament play after racking up a 91% snap rate in Week 9 with Pierre Garcon on the shelf. Goodwin hadn’t played more than 65% over the previous two weeks and Garcon’s absence is leaving a lot of targets on the table, especially with George Kittle now joining him on the sideline. The added snaps plus the opening up of targets in a big way should lead to Goodwin once again seeing somewhere in the neighborhood of eight targets, and his speed makes those valuable if he’s able to break just one. He’s certainly a viable tournament target on FanDuel as well, but Goodwin does open up a lot on DraftKings at $3,800.

 

 

 

Wide Receiver/Cornerback Chart


The WR/CB chart is one of our DFS Premium products that helps to shed light on the best individual draws for wide receivers. Few corners shadow and few receivers spend all of their time lined up in one particular spot, so while this isn’t a cut-and-dry matchups page, the CB listed next to each WR is the coverage that player is expected to draw most often.

 

 

A.J. Green ($7,900 on FanDuel, $7,700 on DraftKings) – After the bashing he’s taken from Jalen Ramsey, Green is going to want to show up in a big way on Sunday. Fortunately for him he has the best matchup rating among all WRs on the WR/CB chart, as it’s projected that he’ll square off with Titans CB LeShaun Sims, who not only gives up four inches to Green but also can’t match him in terms of speed. Tennessee’s defense tends to leak via the pass and I’m not concerned about a drop off in production when Green is lining up elsewhere. He’s been more volatile than we’d like from a player that costs this much to roster, but this sets up as a boom spot and Green’s ceiling is about as high as they come.

 

 

Sterling Shepard ($5,700 on FanDuel, $5,500 on DraftKings) – Shepard’s price tag on FanDuel is laughably low, but he can be utilized in all formats on both major sites in the mid $5K range. He’s set to match up most frequently with K’Waun Williams who has the third-lowest rating among CBs on this slate, setting up Shepard to potentially add some efficiency to an increased target load with the Giants terribly banged up at receiver. He racked up nine targets in Week 9, turning in a 5-70-0 line which may have been just enough of a mediocre performance to drop his ownership a little in tournaments. Shepard’s 24% target rate ranked just below Evan Engram’s 26% and if he’s able to hover in that range while being priced this low, I’ll continue to have exposure in all formats.

 

 

 

Value Town!


For those who haven’t spent time in these parts, Value Town sheds light on some salary-saving options that’ll allow you the flexibility to roster some big names. I’ll list a handful of options at each position under a certain salary threshold, and will list them in the order I’d prefer to roster them in (ranked in order of tournament preference).

 

Quarterbacks

  1. Ryan Fitzpatrick ($6,100 on FanDuel, $4,900 on DraftKings) – Clearly one of the most appealing QBs from a dollar per point outlook, but he’s going to be without Evans which hurts his GPP appeal a bit. He’s a better cash game play.
  2. Eli Manning ($6,700 on FanDuel, $5,100 on DraftKings) – The 49ers struggle to stop the run, but they aren’t effective against the pass either.
  3. 3.       Josh McCown ($7,400 on FanDuel, $6,100 on DraftKings) – I’m a little bit worried about volume here, but the matchup is fantastic and if the Bucs can put some points on the board he’d have a nice ceiling as a stacking partner with Anderson or Kearse.
 

Running Backs

  1. Carlos Hyde ($6,700 on FanDuel) – His FanDuel price is still way too low even considering he’s accruing a lot of his points via the air.
  2. Orleans Darkwa ($5,300 on FanDuel, $4,500 on DraftKings) – Slightly more appealing on FanDuel but I’ll have exposure on both sites.
  3. 3.       Duke Johnson ($4,100 on DraftKings) – I only want exposure on DraftKings, but he’s a nice tournament punt play with the receiving workload on top of 5-8 carries.
 

Wide Receivers

  1. Sterling Shepard ($5,700 on FanDuel, $5,500 on DraftKings) – One of the top values on FanDuel.
  2. DeSean Jackson ($6,300 on FanDuel, $4,900 on DraftKings) – He figures to see a slight uptick in targets with Evans gone and was already seeing a stable workload on a weekly basis.
  3. 3.       Marquise Goodwin ($5,300 on FanDuel, $3,800 on DraftKings) – It’s terrifying to rely on C.J. Beathard’s arm, but Goodwin’s potential at $3.8K on DraftKings is hard to ignore in GPPs.
 

Tight Ends

  1. Cameron Brate ($5,700 on FanDuel, $4,100 on DraftKings) – It’s not a great draw but I expect him and Howard to both see a slight bump in snaps and Brate’s red-zone work figures to rise.
  2. Garrett Celek ($4,500 on FanDuel, $2,500 on DraftKings) – Your minimum priced punt special. Kittle’s absence should lead to 5-7 targets for Celek.
  3. Hunter Henry ($5,400 on FanDuel, $3,900 on DraftKings) – He’s the only piece of this offense I want any part of.


Stephen "SBK" Keech is a head-to-head specialist who has shot up to being ranked in the Top 100 for Overall, MLB, NBA, and NHL. SBK’s a lead contributor on RotoGrinders, and can be found on Twitter @StephByronKeech.
Email :Stephen Keech



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