Renee Miller

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FanDuel Fades Week 10

Friday, November 10, 2017


FanDuel Fades Week 10

 

There are several reasons you might not want to roster a certain player in a given week of NFL DFS. To truly be a “fade”, in my opinion the player has to be projected to have decent ownership, e.g. no one is “fading” a RB3 on the NY Giants. I’ll always provide the argument for and against a player in this column.

 

Also, fading a player doesn’t necessarily mean you’ll have zero exposure. If you’re a DFS player who plays on multiple sites with multiple lineups in various contests, fading might mean you use that player in just one or two tournament lineups while other DFS players are using him in a majority of their lineups.

 

In the case where you want to fade a player due to projected high ownership (see more on this below), perhaps you fade him in tournaments but continue to roster him in cash games. Having an idea of whom you don’t want to roster as well as whom you do makes navigating salary decisions in the lineup construction process a little bit easier.

 

So in Week 10, I’m fading…

 

Brett Hundley, Jordy Nelson and Aaron Jones: And all other Packers for that matter. Brett Hundley holds the ball too long, makes poor decisions, and can’t sustain drives. His inexperience and overall failure to be Aaron Rodgers is hurting the value of every other Packers skill player, no matter how low their salaries have fallen. The Bears defense has come on strong, especially lately, but in all games except the one they faced Rodgers in earlier this season, they’ve allowed an average of less than 17 points per game. They also rank ninth in sacks (23) this season, and Hundley is going to increase that total, guaranteed.

 

Keenan Allen: Allen has surpassed 10 fantasy points just twice this season, and I have a hard time believing it will be against the Jaguars top passing defense that he breaks out for a true value-busting game. Still priced over $7K, there’s a lot more risk than reward with Allen this season.

 

Stefon Diggs: Diggs played in the game before the Vikings’ bye week, but managed only 27 receiving yards on six targets. He’s likely to see the coverage of Josh Norman for at least some of the time on Sunday, and the high-volume role of Adam Thielen in Minnesota’s success can’t be put aside. I love Diggs as a player, but this isn’t his week. Consider Kyle Rudolph against a Redskins team that has been very generous to opposing tight ends.

 

Tom Brady: Facing the Broncos in Denver without one of his favorite targets, Chris Hogan, Brady is an expensive way to go at quarterback this week. He’s coming off the bye week, and is always a 4-TD threat, but this week I’m more comfortable spending a bit less on Matt Stafford, Ben Roethlisberger or even Jared Goff.

 

 

Injury concerns:

 

Julio Jones, T.Y. Hilton, Dez Bryant, Marqise Lee, Jamison Crowder, Delanie Walker, Charles Clay and Emmanuel Sanders are all questionable, but likely to play on Sunday. I don’t trust the workload for Clay, nor Crowder, but everyone else should be treated as you normally would. Hilton and Jones should be lower-owned, high-upside tournament plays based on the injury scare in Hilton’s case and the lack of recent value in Jones’. Bryant should be pretty popular, in what could be the highest scoring game of the week. Lee is coming off a 12-target game and could be under the radar again if Allen Hurns draws Los Angeles’ best coverage. Walker is a candidate to once again lead his team in receiving against the woeful Cleveland Browns, who have been a beacon for fantasy tight ends.  

 

Jordan Reed looks closer to doubtful and like I said above, I have a hard time trusting any of the Washington receivers.

 

 

 

 

 

In Week 10, players with high projected ownership are Matt Stafford, DeSean Jackson, Marvin Jones Jr., Cameron Brate, Leonard Fournette, LeVeon Bell, Bilal Powell, LA Rams D/ST, Jaguars D/ST. I think Game Theory is useful in DFS to an extent; obviously we can’t all win with the same players. But time and again it’s proven that big GPP winners can and do win with popular plays in their lineups. One or two highly owned players that live up to their expectations (e.g. score a ton of points) won’t hurt you nearly as much as fading those guys in favor of lower-owned, lesser-producing players will. The trick is to find the low-owned, productive guys to mix in around them. 



Renee Miller, Ph.D. is a neuroscientist and has been a daily fantasy sports fanatic since 2011. She is the author of "Cognitive Bias in Fantasy Sports: Is your brain sabotaging your team?". You can find her on twitter @reneemiller01.
Email :Renee Miller



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