Justin Bailey

Targets and Touches

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Week 10: NFC Targets & Touches

Tuesday, November 14, 2017


Targets and Touches will only have players’ six most recent games, regardless if they were active or on a bye. The data will be in descending order of games played. I also decided to add carries inside the five-yard line for running backs rather than just red zone carries. Carries inside the five is more valuable overall as the average touchdown rate over the last 10 years from within five yards is 39 percent, with a substantial drop from further out.

 

All targets and touches data is compiled from Pro Football Reference. Cornerback data is sourced via Pro Football Focus. The NFC will be released on Tuesdays, while the AFC is published on Wednesday.

 

The goal of these articles is to give you an idea of what the usage looks like for each player within their offenses, allowing you to spot any positive or negative trends regarding how a player is being used, and most importantly — letting the numbers tell the story.

 

Note: This data will stick to fantasy-relevant players.

 

Arizona Cardinals

 

Targets: Larry Fitzgerald (10, 11, 3, 0, 9, 14), Andre Ellington (10, 1, 0, 0, 3, 6), Jaron Brown (6, 1, 5, 0, 1, 6), John Brown (7, 4, 4, 0, 4, 6), J.J. Nelson (6, 1, 5, 0, 2, 4), Jermaine Gresham (2, 2, 3, 0, 3, 7),  Adrian Peterson (0, 0, 4, 0, 4, 2)

 

Carries: Adrian Peterson (0, 26, 11, 0, 37, 21), Andre Ellington (1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2), J.J. Nelson (1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0)

 

RZ Targets: Larry Fitzgerald (0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0), Jermaine Gresham (0, 0, 0, 0, 2, 3), Jaron Brown (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 2), John Brown (1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1), Adrian Peterson (0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0)

 

RZ Carries: Adrian Peterson (0, 5, 0, 0, 8, 1), Andre Ellington (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1)

 

Inside 5 Carries: Adrian Peterson (0, 2, 0, 0, 1, 0), Andre Ellington (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1)

 

Coverage Data (via PFF): Patrick Peterson (2-26-0, 0, 0, 0, 3-77-0, 2-18-0), Tramon Williams (0, 1-41-0, 6-62-0, 0, 2-39-0, 3-14-0), Tyrann Mathieu (1-1-0, 3-42-0, 4-56-1, 0, 2-23-0, 2-20-0)

 

Observations: Larry Fitzgerald led the Cardinals with 30 percent of their target share with Drew Stanton at quarterback and tallied up a 10-113 line. However, Stanton sprained his knee and it looks like the Cardinals will turn to Blaine Gabbert in Week 11 against the Texans. Adrian Peterson received 21 of their 23 backfield carries, but he managed just 29 yards. Peterson is a matchup and game script dependent running back.

 

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Atlanta Falcons

 

Targets: Julio Jones (0, 7, 13, 6, 12, 8), Mohamed Sanu (0, 0, 10, 7, 3, 5), Austin Hooper (0, 9, 1, 6, 6, 6), Taylor Gabriel (0, 8, 2, 1, 4, 3), Tevin Coleman (0, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1), Devonta Freeman (0, 4, 3, 3, 5, 0)

 

Carries: Devonta Freeman (0, 9, 12, 12, 11, 2), Tevin Coleman (0, 9, 6, 14, 5, 20), Terron Ward (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 9), Taylor Gabriel (0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1)

 

RZ Targets: Julio Jones (0, 0, 4, 2, 0, 2), Austin Hooper (0, 0, 1, 2, 0, 2), Mohamed Sanu (0, 0, 3, 1, 1, 0), Devonta Freeman (0, 0, 0, 2, 1, 0), Taylor Gabriel (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1), Tevin Coleman (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0)

 

RZ Carries: Devonta Freeman (0, 1, 1, 2, 1, 0), Tevin Coleman (0, 2, 2, 1, 0, 4), Terron Ward (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 4), Taylor Gabriel (0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0)

 

Inside 5 Carries: Tevin Coleman (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2), Taylor Gabriel (0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0)

 

Coverage Data (via PFF): Brian Poole (0, 3-21-0, 4-26-0, 4-33-0, 4-54-0, 4-40-0), Desmond Trufant (0, 3-28-1, 2-21-0, 3-55-1, 2-38-0, 1-13-0), Robert Alford (0, 2-16-0, 5-85-0, 3-43-0, 3-26-0, 2-41-0)

 

Observations: With Devonta Freeman (concussion) leaving this game, Tevin Coleman saw 20 carries for 83 yards and a touchdown. After having six or more targets and at least four receptions in every healthy game this season, Mohamed Sanu saw just five targets and three receptions. Over nine games, Julio Jones rank 12th in the league in targets (76) and receptions (49), but he has just one touchdown.

 

Carolina Panthers

 

Targets: Christian McCaffrey (7, 14, 9, 7, 6, 7), Devin Funchess (8, 9, 8, 6, 7, 6), Ed Dickson (5, 8, 5, 5, 2, 5), Russell Shepard (2, 6, 3, 1, 2, 7), Curtis Samuel (2, 0, 1, 3, 5, 7), Jonathan Stewart (3, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0),

 

Carries: Jonathan Stewart (18, 8, 14, 11, 11, 17), Christian McCaffrey (3, 4, 7, 4, 15, 5), Cameron Artis-Payne (0, 0, 0, 4, 1, 7), Curtis Samuel (0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0), Russell Shepard (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0)

 

RZ Targets: Christian McCaffrey (2, 2, 0, 0, 3, 1), Devin Funchess (1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1), Ed Dickson (0, 2, 1, 1, 0, 1), Russell Shepard (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0), Curtis Samuel (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1)

 

RZ Carries: Jonathan Stewart (3, 0, 1, 1, 1, 3), Christian McCaffrey (0, 1, 0, 0, 4, 1),

 

Inside 5 Carries: Jonathan Stewart (1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1), Christian McCaffrey (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1)

 

Coverage Data (via PFF): Captain Munnerlyn (1-5-0, 0, 0, 3-42-0, 0, 4-45-0), Daryl Worley (2-12-0, 3-23-1, 0, 3-18-0, 1-6-1, 1-9-0), James Bradberry (2-19-0, 3-43-0, 1-8-0, 5-60-0, 7-129-0, 4-49-0), Kevon Seymour (1-8-0, 2-52-0, 1-70-0, 1-19-0, 3-48-0, 1-12-0)

 

Observations: Without Jonathan Stewart’s fumbling issues, Christian McCaffrey went from 15 carries in the previous week, to back to his normal 5-7 range Monday night. Stewart played just 32 percent of the snaps (some due to blowout factor), but he throttled the Dolphins on the ground for 110 yards on 17 carries. Stewart is just the RB46 this season in PPR leagues. Through the Panthers first 10 games, CMC leads the Panthers with 20 red zone looks (11 targets, nine carries). Targets have been fairly even since Kelvin Benjamin departed: CMC: 13, Devin Funchess: 13, Curtis Samuel: 12. Unfortunately, Samuel may have suffered a severe ankle injury Monday night.  

 

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Chicago Bears

 

Targets: Kendall Wright (5, 3, 0, 8, 0, 8), Tarik Cohen (1, 3, 3, 3, 0, 2), Zach Miller (7, 3, 3, 2, 0, 0), Josh Bellamy (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 7), Jordan Howard (0, 1, 0, 5, 0, 0), Dion Sims (4, 4, 0, 5, 0, 0), Benny Cunningham (4, 0, 0, 1, 0, 4), Dontrelle Inman (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 8)

 

Carries: Jordan Howard (19, 36, 21, 23, 0, 15), Tarik Cohen (6, 14, 0, 4, 0, 1), Benny Cunningham (1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1)

 

RZ Targets: Tarik Cohen (0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0), Zach Miller (1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0), Adam Shaheen (0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0), Jordan Howard (0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0), Dion Sims (0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0)

 

RZ Carries: Jordan Howard (0, 3, 2, 4, 0, 0), Tarik Cohen (0, 0, 0, 2, 0, 0)

 

Inside 5 Carries: Jordan Howard (0, 0, 2, 0, 0, 0), Tarik Cohen (0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0)

 

Coverage Data (via PFF): Bryce Callahan (3-24-0, 2-13-0, 1-18-0, 4-87-0, 0, 0), Kyle Fuller (4-47-1, 5-43-0, 2-22-0, 2-75-0, 0, 7-120-1), Prince Amukamara (2-20-0, 1-8-0, 3-62-0, 2-32-0, 0, 0)

 

Observations: In Mitch Trubisky’s previous starts, Jordan Howard was averaging 25.8 touches per game, but he saw just 15 carries against the Packers as game script didn’t go in their favor. Dontrelle Inman led the Bears in routes (37), receiving yards (88), and tied with Kendall Wright for a team-high eight targets. However, it’ll be difficult to count on any Bears receiver as they rank 32nd in pass attempts (257), averaging just 28.5 attempts per game.

 

Dallas Cowboys

 

Targets: Dez Bryant (8, 0, 10, 6, 11, 7), Jason Witten (10, 0, 4, 5, 1, 7), Terrance Williams (3, 0, 3, 3, 9, 4), Cole Beasley (6, 0, 2, 3, 6, 3), Ezekiel Elliott (2, 0, 3, 2, 0, 0), Brice Butler (2, 0, 0, 1, 3, 1), Rod Smith (1, 0, 2, 0, 0, 6), Alfred Morris (1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0)

 

Carries: Ezekiel Elliott (29, 0, 26, 33, 27, 0), Alfred Morris (2, 0, 2, 3, 1, 11), Rod Smith (0, 0, 8, 0, 0, 3), Darren McFadden (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1), Dez Bryant (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1)

 

RZ Targets: Dez Bryant (2, 0, 3, 2, 0, 0), Jason Witten (1, 0, 1, 2, 0, 0), Cole Beasley (3, 0, 0, 0, 2, 0), Rod Smith (0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 3), Brice Butler (0, 0, 0, 0, 2, 0), Terrance Williams (0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0)

 

RZ Carries: Ezekiel Elliott (7, 0, 8, 4, 6, 0), Alfred Morris (0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1), Rod Smith (0, 0, 4, 0, 0, 0)

 

Inside 5 Carries: Ezekiel Elliott (0, 0, 3, 2, 2, 0)

 

Coverage Data (via PFF): Anthony Brown (4-42-1, 0, 3-21-0, 4-72-0, 1-10-0, 3-38-1), Jourdan Lewis (3-31-1, 0, 4-54-0, 2-26-1, 0, 3-52-0), Orlando Scandrick (3-36-0, 0, 2-25-0, 6-58-0, 5-85-1, 6-51-0)

 

Observations: Alfred Morris was the Cowboys’ primary back as he handled 11 of their 14 running back carries. Rod Smith out-snapped Morris 39 to 21 as he was used as the primary pass-catcher. Smith played 39 snaps and ran a pass route on 32 of them (PFF), seeing six targets and four receptions. I would expect this trend to continue as Morris isn't known for his pass-catching.

 

Detroit Lions

 

Targets: Golden Tate (8, 7, 0, 8, 9, 7), Marvin Jones (8, 14, 0, 11, 11, 2), Theo Riddick (5, 7, 0, 2, 4, 3), Eric Ebron (4, 3, 0, 6, 4, 3), T.J. Jones (4, 9, 0, 8, 2, 3), Ameer Abdullah (1, 2, 0, 3, 1, 2), Kenny Golladay (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 3)

 

Carries: Ameer Abdullah (10, 14, 0, 11, 21, 11), Theo Riddick (2, 2, 0, 4, 5, 4)

 

RZ Targets: Marvin Jones (0, 3, 0, 4, 2, 0), Eric Ebron (1, 0, 0, 2, 0, 0), Golden Tate (1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0), Theo Riddick (1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1), T.J. Jones (1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0), Ameer Abdullah (0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1)

 

RZ Carries: Ameer Abdullah (2, 0, 0, 0, 5, 2), Theo Riddick (0, 0, 0, 1, 2, 0)

 

Inside 5 Carries: Ameer Abdullah (1, 0, 0, 0, 2, 0), Theo Riddick (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0)

 

Coverage Data (via PFF): Darius Slay (5-71-2, 3-30-1, 0, 2-13-0, 2-17-0, 6-42-0), DJ Hayden (2-1-0, 3-42-0, 0, 0, 2-14-0, 1-1-0), Nevin Lawson (3-36-0, 0, 0, 3-66-0, 2-21-0, 4-73-1), Quandre Diggs (1-7-0, 3-25-0, 0, 3-120-1, 1-10-0, 1-4-0)

 

Observations: After going 6-97-1 on seven targets, Golden Tate now has five-straight games of at least seven targets and he’s top 85 yards receiving in four-straight games. Tate now ranks 19th in targets and seventh in receptions this season. It was a bit of an outlier game for Marvin Jones as he saw just two targets. He’s still averaging 9.2 targets per game since Week 5.

 

Green Bay Packers

 

Targets: Davante Adams (11, 10, 5, 0, 10, 8), Jordy Nelson (4, 10, 4, 0, 7, 4), Randall Cobb (5, 3, 4, 0, 5, 4), Ty Montgomery (0, 3, 2, 0, 1, 2), Geronimo Allison (2, 2, 2, 0, 1, 0), Aaron Jones (1, 4, 5, 0, 5, 1), Lance Kendricks (1, 0, 0, 0, 3, 2), Richard Rodgers (1, 0, 0, 0, 2, 1), Jamaal Williams (0, 0, 0, 0, 2, 1)

 

Carries: Ty Montgomery (0, 10, 4, 0, 5, 6), Aaron Jones (19, 12, 17, 0, 5, 3), Jamaal Williams (1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 20), Randall Cobb (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 4)

 

RZ Targets: Davante Adams (3, 3, 0, 0, 1, 3), Jordy Nelson (2, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0), Ty Montgomery (0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0), Aaron Jones (1, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0), Geronimo Allison (1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0)

 

RZ Carries: Aaron Jones (4, 0, 2, 0, 0, 0), Ty Montgomery (0, 2, 0, 0, 1, 0), Jamaal Williams (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0), Aaron Ripkowski (1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1), Randall Cobb (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2)

 

Inside 5 Carries: Ty Montgomery (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0), Aaron Jones (1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0), Jamaal Williams (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0)

 

Coverage Data (via PFF): Damarious Randall (1-10-1, 1-23-0, 3-46-0, 0, 2-28-1, 4-52-0), Davon House (1-2-1, 0, 3-18-0, 0, 6-93-1, 7-116-1), Josh Hawkins (1-8-0, 8-86-0, 1-6-0, 0, 0, 0), Kevin King (2-9-0, 0, 5-143-1, 0, 3-55-0, 3-34-0)

 

Observations: Aaron Jones (MCL) and Ty Montgomery (ribs) left this game, leaving Jamaal Williams to see 20 carries. Williams is currently the only healthy running back on the roster and would face a tough Ravens defense in Week 11 if Montgomery and Jones were to miss the next game. With Brett Hundley under center, Davante Adams is averaging 8.25 targets per game. Adams led the Packers with a 5-90-1 line on eight targets. All of the Green Bay skill positions will boast a low floor with Hundley as the signal caller.


Los Angeles Rams

 

Targets: Robert Woods (8, 7, 7, 0, 5, 10), Cooper Kupp (8, 3, 10, 0, 5, 7), Todd Gurley (4, 1, 8, 0, 3, 7), Sammy Watkins (4, 4, 5, 0, 2, 3), Tyler Higbee (8, 3, 3, 0, 2, 4), Tavon Austin (5, 0, 2, 0, 0, 0), Malcolm Brown (2, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0),  Lance Dunbar (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1)

 

Carries: Todd Gurley (14, 23, 22, 0, 16, 11), Malcolm Brown (0, 3, 11, 0, 15, 0), Tavon Austin (6, 2, 3, 0, 6, 5), Lance Dunbar (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 5), Robert Woods (1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0),

 

RZ Targets: Cooper Kupp (3, 0, 5, 0, 2, 0), Todd Gurley (1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1), Robert Woods (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 2), Gerald Everett (1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1), Sammy Watkins (0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1), Tyler Higbee (1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0), Tavon Austin (2, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0)

 

RZ Carries: Todd Gurley (1, 4, 5, 0, 8, 2), Malcolm Brown (0, 0, 2, 0, 0, 0), Tavon Austin (2, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0)

 

Inside 5 Carries: Todd Gurley (0, 0, 0, 0, 5, 0)

 

Coverage Data (via PFF): Kayvon Webster (1-6-0, 3-27-0, 1-25-0, 0, 1-14-0, 5-70-0), Nickell Robey-Coleman (5-35-0, 1-9-0, 1-21-0, 0, 2-17-0, 4-22-0), Troy Hill (0, 0, 1-27-0, 0, 0, 0), Trumaine Johnson (3-32-0, 6-88-0, 3-27-0, 0, 2-34-0, 3-56-0)

 

Observations: Robert Woods continues to crush as he throttled the Texans for 8-171-2 on a team and season-high 10 targets. Over the last six weeks, Woods leads the Rams with 7.4 targets per game, followed by Cooper Kupp at 6.6 targets. Sammy Watkins has been an afterthought in this offense with just 3.6 targets per game over that same timespan.

 


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Justin Bailey has been working with Rotoworld since 2015. His stat-forward analysis can also be found on FantasyLabs and 4for4. Follow him on Twitter - @justinbailey32.
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