Justin Bailey

Targets and Touches

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Week 10: AFC Targets & Touches

Wednesday, November 15, 2017


Targets and Touches will only have players’ six most recent games, regardless of whether they were active or on a bye. The data will be in descending order of games played. I also decided to add carries inside the five-yard line for running backs rather than just red zone carries. Carries inside the five are more valuable overall as the average touchdown rate over the last 10 years from within five yards is 39 percent, with a substantial drop from further out.

 

All targets and touches data is compiled from Pro Football Reference. Cornerback data is sourced via Pro Football Focus. The NFC will be released on Tuesdays, while the AFC is published on Wednesday.

 

The goal of these articles is to give you an idea of what the usage looks like for each player within their offenses, allowing you to spot any positive or negative trends regarding how a player is being used, and most importantly — letting the numbers tell the story.

 

Note: This data will stick to mainly fantasy-relevant players.  

 

Baltimore Ravens

 

Targets: Javorius Allen (6, 5, 4, 11, 3, 8), Benjamin Watson (6, 4, 8, 5, 4, 10), Jeremy Maclin (6, 8, 0, 0, 5, 9), Mike Wallace (10, 3, 5, 1, 0, 7), Breshad Perriman (4, 3, 2, 0, 2, 7), Nick Boyle (5, 2, 3, 3, 4, 0), Chris Moore (0, 0, 7, 8, 0, 4), Michael Campanaro (6, 1, 5, 3, 0, 0), Maxx Williams (0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 3), Alex Collins (2, 0, 0, 0, 2, 1),


Carries: Javorius Allen (2, 21, 10, 6, 17, 7), Alex Collins (9, 12, 15, 10, 18, 13), Terrance West (4, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0)


RZ Targets: Benjamin Watson (0, 2, 2, 1, 2, 1), Mike Wallace (3, 0, 1, 0, 0, 2), Nick Boyle (1, 2, 1, 1, 0, 0), Javorius Allen (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2), Chris Moore (0, 0, 1, 3, 0, 0), Jeremy Maclin (0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1), Breshad Perriman (1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0)


RZ Carries: Javorius Allen (0, 10, 0, 0, 4, 1), Terrance West (0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0), Alex Collins (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 3)


Inside 5 Carries: Javorius Allen (0, 3, 0, 0, 2, 0), Alex Collins (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1), Vince Mayle (0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0)


Coverage Data (via PFF): Brandon Carr (2-15-0, 3-68-1, 0, 3-22-0, 4-62-0, 4-45-1), Jaylen Hill (0, 0, 0, 1-14-0, 0, 0), Jimmy Smith (1-14-0, 1-3-0, 0, 3-19-0, 2-12-0, 2-6-0), Lardarius Webb (2-21-0, 3-37-0, 2-32-0, 2-42-0, 4-28-0, 0), Marlon Humphrey (4-56-0, 3-33-0, 0, 0, 5-49-0, 0)

 

Observations: Bye.


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Buffalo Bills

 

Targets: LeSean McCoy (9, 0, 7, 7, 1, 5), Zay Jones (6, 0, 9, 5, 7, 0), Charles Clay (3, 0, 0, 0, 0, 3), Jordan Matthews (0, 0, 3, 4, 8, 2), Nick O'Leary (6, 0, 2, 3, 5, 2), Andre Holmes (1, 0, 3, 4, 3, 0), Deonte Thompson (0, 0, 4, 1, 10, 4), Mike Tolbert (3, 0, 1, 1, 3, 2)


Carries: LeSean McCoy (19, 0, 23, 27, 12, 8), Mike Tolbert (3, 0, 3, 4, 4, 2), Deonte Thompson (0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1)


RZ Targets: LeSean McCoy (3, 0, 2, 3, 1, 0), Zay Jones (3, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0), Andre Holmes (0, 0, 0, 2, 0, 0), Jordan Matthews (0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0),  Nick O'Leary (0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1)


RZ Carries: LeSean McCoy (1, 0, 4, 7, 1, 1), Mike Tolbert (1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0)


Inside 5 Carries: LeSean McCoy (0, 0, 1, 4, 0, 0), Mike Tolbert (0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0)


Coverage Data (via PFF): E.J. Gaines (0, 0, 4-42-0, 0, 0, 0), Greg Mabin (1-20-0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0), Leonard Johnson (1-5-0, 0, 6-61-0, 5-35-0, 0, 4-49-0), Shareece Wright (7-65-0, 0, 5-90-1, 4-69-0, 1-13-0, 4-33-0), Tre'Davious White (3-131-1, 0, 2-35-1, 3-26-0, 3-37-1, 2-35-0)

 

Observations: Tyrod Taylor attempted 28 passes in this game and newcomer Kelvin Benjamin led the team with six targets. Targets in this offense will be thin with the Bills being such a run-heavy team, but Benjamin, Charles Clay, and LeSean McCoy should have the steadiest usage. In his first game back from injury, Clay played 60 percent of the snaps, but that should increase as he regains his health.

 

Cincinnati Bengals

 

Targets: A.J. Green (13, 0, 6, 8, 2, 7), Brandon LaFell (8, 0, 7, 5, 2, 10), Tyler Kroft (5, 0, 4, 6, 2, 6), Giovani Bernard (2, 0, 3, 2, 1, 6), Joe Mixon (0, 0, 3, 3, 4, 3), John Ross (0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1)


Carries: Joe Mixon (15, 0, 7, 11, 13, 9), Jeremy Hill (4, 0, 4, 4, 0, 0), Giovani Bernard (2, 0, 3, 2, 1, 2)


RZ Targets: Brandon LaFell (2, 0, 3, 0, 0, 0), A.J. Green (0, 0, 0, 3, 0, 0), Tyler Kroft (1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0), Giovani Bernard (0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0), Joe Mixon (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0)


RZ Carries: Joe Mixon (3, 0, 2, 2, 2, 1)


Inside 5 Carries: Joe Mixon (1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1)


Coverage Data (via PFF): Adam Jones (0, 0, 0, 2-29-0, 4-36-1, 2-28-0), Darqueze Dennard (3-26-0, 0, 4-69-1, 7-48-0, 2-22-0, 3-22-1), Dre Kirkpatrick (0, 0, 1-19-0, 2-19-0, 6-93-0, 5-49-0), Josh Shaw (3-28-1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0), William Jackson (1-9-0, 0, 1-3-0, 0, 1-1-0, 1-9-0)

 

Observations: Brandon LaFell has been steady volume-wise for the Bengals, with 32 targets over the last six weeks, just four targets behind A.J. Green. Granted, Green was ejected against the Jaguars in Week 9, but LaFell was targeted just twice that game. Green bounced back nicely for a 5-115-1 game on seven targets after being called “weak” and “soft” the week before. With Jeremy Hill on IR, Joe Mixon led the backfield with 61 percent of the snaps and saw nine of their 13 carries. He has topped 50 yards rushing just once since Week 4. Things won’t get any easier for Mixon next week when the Bengals head to Denver.

 

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Cleveland Browns

 

Targets: Duke Johnson (3, 5, 7, 5, 0, 6), Ricardo Louis (8, 7, 4, 6, 0, 6), David Njoku (3, 5, 5, 7, 0, 6), Seth DeValve (4, 3, 4, 3, 0, 6), Rashard Higgins (4, 2, 3, 1, 0, 4), Kenny Britt (0, 0, 5, 0, 0, 3), Isaiah Crowell (3, 2, 6, 6, 0, 2)


Carries: Isaiah Crowell (16, 12, 17, 11, 0, 16), Duke Johnson (6, 5, 7, 6, 0, 10), David Njoku (1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0)


RZ Targets: David Njoku (0, 1, 1, 2, 0, 2), Seth DeValve (1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0), Kenny Britt (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1), Ricardo Louis (0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1), Isaiah Crowell (2, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0), Duke Johnson (0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0)


RZ Carries: Isaiah Crowell (3, 0, 1, 4, 0, 4), Duke Johnson (0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0)


Inside 5 Carries: Isaiah Crowell (1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1)


Coverage Data (via PFF): Briean Boddy-Calhoun (1-8-0, 0, 0, 3-49-0, 0, 3-16-0), Jamar Taylor (4-70-1, 3-45-1, 1-8-0, 6-41-0, 0, 3-77-0), Jason McCourty (5-22-0, 2-19-1, 0, 0, 0, 2-7-0)

 

Observations: DeShone Kizer threw 40 times on Sunday and Seth DeValve, Duke Johnson, Ricardo Lewis, and David Njoku all led the team with six targets. It’s tough to get excited about anyone on this inept offense with Kizer completing 52.8 percent of his passes with a 1.6 touchdown and 4.8 percent interception rate.


Denver Broncos

 

Targets: Demaryius Thomas (0, 14, 6, 9, 12, 8), Emmanuel Sanders (0, 8, 0, 0, 5, 11), Bennie Fowler (0, 8, 5, 6, 2, 1), A.J. Derby (0, 4, 7, 4, 3, 1), C.J. Anderson (0, 0, 2, 1, 1, 1), Devontae Booker (0, 6, 4, 3, 3, 1), Jamaal Charles (0, 3, 4, 1, 4, 1)


Carries: C.J. Anderson (0, 9, 10, 15, 9, 10), Jamaal Charles (0, 5, 4, 8, 4, 8), Devontae Booker (0, 1, 2, 6, 6, 8)


RZ Targets: Bennie Fowler (0, 3, 0, 2, 0, 0), Demaryius Thomas (0, 2, 0, 0, 3, 1), Emmanuel Sanders (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1), A.J. Derby (0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1), Devontae Booker (0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0), Jamaal Charles (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1)


RZ Carries: C.J. Anderson (0, 1, 0, 0, 2, 0), Jamaal Charles (0, 1, 0, 0, 2, 1), Devontae Booker (0, 0, 0, 4, 0, 1)


Inside 5 Carries: C.J. Anderson (0, 1, 0, 0, 2, 0), Jamaal Charles (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0)


Coverage Data (via PFF): Aqib Talib (0, 0, 1-2-0, 2-38-0, 4-64-2, 1-25-0), Bradley Roby (0, 1-6-0, 2-19-0, 1-19-0, 5-53-0, 3-24-0), Chris Harris Jr. (0, 0, 3-64-1, 1-5-0, 2-36-0, 2-11-0)

 

Observations: In his second game back from his ankle injury, Emmanuel Sanders went from 45% of the snaps in Week 9, to 87 percent in Week 10. He also led the team with 11 targets for a solid 6-137 line. C.J. Anderson (10), Jamaal Charles (8), and Devontae Booker (8) all saw a mix of carries. It’s the second-straight week that all three running backs have seen around one-third of the running back snaps. This backfield is close to unusable.


Houston Texans

 

Targets: DeAndre Hopkins (12, 4, 0, 11, 16, 14), Bruce Ellington (3, 3, 0, 4, 8, 8), Will Fuller (3, 5, 0, 8, 8, 3), Lamar Miller (3, 4, 0, 3, 4, 1), Stephen Anderson (2, 2, 0, 2, 6, 3), C.J. Fiedorowicz (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 6), D'Onta Foreman (1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0)


Carries: Lamar Miller (15, 15, 0, 21, 10, 11), D'Onta Foreman (4, 12, 0, 0, 11, 7), Alfred Blue (0, 0, 0, 5, 0, 4), Will Fuller (1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0)


RZ Targets: DeAndre Hopkins (2, 1, 0, 0, 3, 2), Bruce Ellington (0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1), Stephen Anderson (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1), Will Fuller (1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0), C.J. Fiedorowicz (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2), Lamar Miller (0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0)


RZ Carries: Lamar Miller (3, 0, 0, 3, 0, 2), D'Onta Foreman (0, 2, 0, 0, 1, 0), Will Fuller (1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0)


Inside 5 Carries: Lamar Miller (0, 0, 0, 2, 0, 0), D'Onta Foreman (0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0)


Coverage Data (via PFF): Johnathan Joseph (2-56-0, 2-3-0, 0, 3-16-0, 2-62-1, 5-138-1), Kareem Jackson (9-106-1, 1-20-0, 0, 5-109-0, 3-27-0, 8-88-1), Kevin Johnson (0, 0, 0, 6-90-1, 3-33-0, 1--2-0), Marcus Williams (0, 4-41-0, 0, 3-46-0, 0, 2-24-1)


Observations: DeAndre Hopkins has 30 targets in his first two games with Tom Savage. With Will Fuller (ribs) possibly out for Week 11, his target share should be through the roof. It’s likely Patrick Peterson shadows him next week, but his volume will be massive.

 

Indianapolis Colts


Targets: Jack Doyle (0, 11, 7, 14, 9, 5), T.Y. Hilton (9, 4, 8, 7, 9, 4), Kamar Aiken (7, 4, 3, 5, 2, 0), Donte Moncrief (3, 7, 4, 1, 2, 1), Frank Gore (4, 3, 0, 4, 4, 1), Marlon Mack (1, 2, 6, 5, 0, 4), Chester Rogers (0, 0, 2, 2, 2, 6)


Carries: Frank Gore (14, 10, 9, 16, 17, 17), Marlon Mack (9, 2, 5, 11, 9, 7)


RZ Targets: T.Y. Hilton (1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0), Donte Moncrief (0, 3, 0, 0, 0, 0), Jack Doyle (0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0), Kamar Aiken (1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0), Frank Gore (0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0), Marlon Mack (0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0)


RZ Carries: Frank Gore (3, 0, 0, 3, 0, 0), Marlon Mack (1, 1, 0, 2, 4, 0)


Inside 5 Carries:


Coverage Data (via PFF): Nate Hairston (0, 2-14-0, 5-96-0, 0, 4-43-0, 4-43-1), Pierre Desir (0, 0, 0, 2-25-1, 6-86-1, 3-74-0), Rashaan Melvin (5-48-0, 4-51-0, 0, 0, 1-10-0, 3-57-0), Vontae Davis (3-45-0, 2-14-0, 3-17-0, 3-49-1, 0, 0)


Observations: T.Y. Hilton struggled in this one as he saw just four targets, but it was a terrible overall matchup against a stout Steelers secondary. Hilton has been able to exploit easier matchups this season with Jacoby Brissett under center. Brissett attempted just 24 passes in this game.


Jacksonville Jaguars

 

Targets: Marqise Lee (4, 10, 6, 0, 12, 11), Allen Hurns (3, 3, 8, 0, 4, 9), Keelan Cole (1, 2, 3, 0, 5, 8), Marcedes Lewis (2, 2, 3, 0, 6, 5), Chris Ivory (0, 10, 0, 0, 4, 2), Leonard Fournette (1, 2, 0, 0, 0, 4), T.J. Yeldon (0, 0, 2, 0, 4, 8), Corey Grant (1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0)


Carries: Leonard Fournette (28, 21, 0, 0, 0, 17), Chris Ivory (8, 2, 17, 0, 20, 1), T.J. Yeldon (0, 0, 9, 0, 11, 3), Corey Grant (0, 0, 6, 0, 4, 1), Marqise Lee (0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0)


RZ Targets: Marcedes Lewis (0, 0, 2, 0, 1, 1), Marqise Lee (0, 0, 1, 0, 3, 1), Chris Ivory (0, 0, 0, 0, 2, 0), T.J. Yeldon (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1)


RZ Carries: Leonard Fournette (4, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2), Chris Ivory (1, 0, 5, 0, 7, 0), T.J. Yeldon (0, 0, 0, 0, 4, 0)


Inside 5 Carries: Leonard Fournette (1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0), Chris Ivory (1, 0, 2, 0, 3, 0)


Coverage Data (via PFF): A.J. Bouye (1-18-0, 2-25-0, 4-47-0, 0, 1-19-0, 1-20-0), Aaron Colvin (10-59-0, 3-35-0, 2-13-0, 0, 1-9-0, 1--2-0), Jalen Ramsey (5-100-0, 3-36-0, 4-38-0, 0, 1-6-0, 5-41-0), Tyler Patmon (1-9-0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1-4-0)


Observations: In Leonard Fournette’s first game back in quite some time, he played just 54 percent of the snaps, while T.J. Yeldon wasn’t far behind at 37 percent. Fournette managed just 33 rushing yards on his 17 carries. He took a backseat on passing downs with Yeldon seeing eight targets, to Fournette’s four. Hopefully, this isn’t an ongoing trend. Allen Hurns left this game late in the fourth quarter with an ankle injury and he isn’t expected to be active. This may open the door for Dede Westbrook, who should be getting activated off IR.  



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Justin Bailey has been working with Rotoworld since 2015. His stat-forward analysis can also be found on FantasyLabs and 4for4. Follow him on Twitter - @justinbailey32.
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