Rich Hribar

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The NFL Week 13 Worksheet

Wednesday, November 29, 2017

It’s hard to believe, but here we are in Week 13 already. Week 13 typically is the final week of the regular season for most fantasy leagues out there, which means it’s one last gasp to make a stand for the playoffs or secure a bye in them. If by some poor fortune you’ve already been eliminated from your postseason, then you can still dabble into daily fantasy games to keep your fantasy fix satiated.


As for the token disclaimer, the goal of this article is to provide a top-down, statistical snapshot for each game each week, running down weekly point spreads, team totals, play calling splits, and statistical bullet points on the players and teams involved. Although we’re focusing strictly on PPR league scoring here as a baseline, there’s more than enough to spread around across formats and daily leagues. The reason we’re operating under a PPR umbrella is it allows us to cover a larger portion of the players involved in action weekly.


Lastly, as the author, it’s imperative that I note that this is NOT a start/sit column, rather an expectations column. The labels for each subset of players for each game are simply a vehicle for those expectations and have a different context for each player that you can find at the end of the column. I encourage that you use the game by game tables and data points here in conjunction with the Start/Sit column posted weekly by Nick Mensio, Pat Daugherty’s rankings in the Goal Line Stand, Evan Silva’s Matchup’s column, Ray Summerlin's Waiver Wired and most importantly, your own information and thought process. Remember, you control your own team. With that out of the way, let’s hit all the Week 13 games with a PPR light…


Washington @ Cowboys


1   Spread -1  
21.5   Implied Total 22.5  
23.5 12 Points/Gm 22.5 9
25.1 31 Points All./Gm 24.5 20
63.9 16 Plays/Gm 62.5 15
62.2 14 Opp. Plays/Gm 63.2 15
42.1% 17 Rush% 45.6% 8
57.9% 16 Pass% 54.4% 25
42.1% 15 Opp. Rush % 40.9% 6
57.9% 18 Opp. Pass % 59.1% 27


  • The Cowboys have scored on just 5-of-31 drives (16.1 percent) over the past three weeks, the lowest rate in the league.
  • Dallas has scored single-digit points in three straight games for the first time in franchise history.
  • Alfred Morris has out-touched Rod Smith 38-16 through three quarters since the Ezekiel Elliott suspension, but Smith has 10 fourth quarter touches to zero for Morris.
  • Opponents have run 52.6 percent of their offensive plays against Dallas over the past three weeks, the highest rate in the league.
  • Samaje Perine is the first Washington back to rush for 100 yards in back to back games since Alfred Morris in 2013.
  • Jamison Crowder is averaging 10.5 targets per game over his past four games, tied for second among all wide receivers in the league over that span.
  • 17.9 percent of the completions against Washington have gained 20 or more yards, the second-highest rate in the league.
  • Just 10 percent of Dak Prescott's completions have gained 20 or more yards, 34th of 39 quarterbacks with 100 or more pass attempts on the season.


Trust: Samaje Perine (he has 24 and 27 touches now that this backfield is his while the Cowboys are still expected to be without Sean Lee), Kirk Cousins (looking to make up for his Week 8 dud in the rain the last time these teams met, he has 15 or more points in three straight while the Cowboys have allowed multiple touchdown passes in each of their past four games), Jamison Crowder (he’s back as a fixture in this passing game while Dallas has been slaughtered by receivers of his archetype all season long, including Crowder himself when he posted 9-133-0 when these teams last met)


Bust: Alfred Morris (even with Dallas favored, he’s still just a standard league flex only. He’s ran for 4.9 yards per carry, but offers no receiving juice and has been scripted out of each game so far), Dak Prescott (he’s an option in 2QB leagues as this is the best matchup he’s had over the past four weeks and Washington has allowed 50 or more rushing yards to three different quarterbacks on the year, but Prescott has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in four of his past five games and there’s not a lot to love when looking at his weapons elevating him in this matchup), Rod Smith (he’s totaled just 88 yards from scrimmage in three games with Elliott active even with Dallas playing in supremely negative script regularly over that span)


Reasonable Return: Vernon Davis (it’s hard to express extreme confidence when he had just one target against a defense that had been susceptible to tight end play, but he still ran 28 routes, right on par with his season average without Jordan Reed active), Josh Doctson (he’s been right on the flex play line in four of his past five games, but still has a limited ceiling as he’s yet to have more than four catches in a game on the season), Dez Bryant (he carries weekly WR3 expectations at this point, and that’s what he was when these teams last met in a game where Dallas had just 22 targets to spread out), Jason Witten (he’s been a top-10 scorer in two of the three games post-apocalypse while Washington is 30th in receptions allowed per game to tight ends)


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Chiefs @ Jets

Kansas CityRank@NY JetsRank
-3   Spread 3  
23.5   Implied Total 20.5  
24.7 7 Points/Gm 20.7 23
21.5 14 Points All./Gm 23.4 16
60.5 26 Plays/Gm 60.3 30
65.9 25 Opp. Plays/Gm 65.8 26
40.2% 20 Rush% 41.9% 16
59.8% 13 Pass% 58.1% 17
43.6% 17 Opp. Rush % 44.8% 24
56.4% 16 Opp. Pass % 55.3% 9


  • Josh McCown is tied with Matthew Stafford with a league-leading 11 touchdown passes from outside of the red zone, and ranks 26th in touchdown passes in the red zone (six).
  • Robby Anderson has a league-leading six touchdown receptions from outside of the red zone, the most by a Jets receiver in a season since Wesley Walker in 1986.
  • 39 percent (16-of-41) of Anderson's receptions have gained 20 or more yards, the highest rate in the league.
  • The Chiefs are allowing 13.1 yards per completion, 31st in the league.
  • Kansas City has scored just four touchdowns on offense since Week 8, the fewest in the league on 48 possessions (8.3 percent) after scoring 21 touchdowns (tied for first) on 74 drives (29.2 percent), which was second in the league.
  • Over that span, Alex Smith is averaging 6.3 yards per pass attempt (24th) after averaging 8.7 yards per attempt (first) prior.
  • During those four weeks, Smith is 11-of-25 (44 percent) on throws 15 yards or further downfield with one touchdown and those throws have accounted for 31.9 percent of his passing yardage. Prior to that, he was 23-of-41 (56 percent) with seven touchdown passes on those throws, which accounted for 42 percent of his passing yards.


Trust: Travis Kelce (last week was another one of those weeks where the Chiefs seemingly forget he’s on the roster as he had just 11 percent of the targets, but the other two times that’s happened this season, he’s come back with 30 percent of the team looks while the Jets are 24th in points allowed per game to tight ends)


Bust: Austin Seferian-Jenkins (he had another “could’ve/should’ve” touchdown taken away from him last week, but he’s last in yards per target for all tight ends with 50 or more on the season while just 14.8 percent of the receiving output against the Chiefs has been posted by tight ends, which is the fourth-lowest rate in the league), NYJ RBs (Matt Forte is the one to chase for a touchdown, but this is a jumbled committee that isn’t very role specific. With everyone active last week, Forte and Bilal Powell had 10 touches each while Elijah McGuire had six), Kareem Hunt (I kept hanging on for the matchups, but he bottomed out last week as this offense may just be broken at this stage of the season as we highlighted their lack of scoring opportunities a week ago in this space while the Jets are allowing opposing backs to rush for just 3.5 YPC over their past seven games)


Reasonable Return: Robby Anderson (he will line up opposite Marcus Peters the most of all Jets wideouts and six of his seven touchdowns this season have come on the right side of the field, but Peters is not immune to giving up a splash play and Anderson has been a steady option even outside of the touchdowns, posting 75 yards or more in four of his past six games), Jermaine Kearse (we always target wideouts playing in the slot and on the left side versus Kansas City because they inherently get targets funneled to them, and we’re not going to pause in Darrelle Revis’ first game there), Josh McCown (he’s been living on long touchdowns to carry him and the Chiefs have allowed multiple touchdown passes in just two of their past six games, but McCown has 16 or more points in five of past six games), Tyreek Hill (as down as this offense has been, Hill has still had 12 or more points in three straight), Alex Smith (he’s reverted into the player that he was his entire career over the first quarter of the season, but that player can still be a useful floor option and the Jets have allowed six different passers to run for 25 or more yards while allowing multiple touchdown passes in seven games this season)


Patriots @ Bills


New EnglandRank@BuffaloRank
-8.5   Spread 8.5  
28.8   Implied Total 20.3  
29.5 4 Points/Gm 20.4 19
20.0 12 Points All./Gm 23.6 23
67.5 2 Plays/Gm 62.5 24
63.5 19 Opp. Plays/Gm 65.5 28
41.5% 21 Rush% 47.2% 6
58.6% 12 Pass% 52.8% 27
37.3% 4 Opp. Rush % 42.2% 20
62.8% 29 Opp. Pass % 57.8% 13


  • New England has led for 59.9 percent of their offensive snaps (second) and have led by multiple possessions for 32.9 percent of their snaps, highest rate in the league.
  • The Patriots rank second in passing rate on plays while leading (53.3 percent) and second in passing rate (51.2 percent) while leading by multiple possessions.
  • Tom Brady has thrown multiple touchdowns in seven straight games in Buffalo, the longest streak by an opposing quarterback in Bills history.
  • The Bills are allowing a touchdown on 3.9 percent of the completed passes against them. League average is 6.9 percent.
  • After last week, Rob Gronkowski now has 16 games with multiple touchdown receptions, the most in the league since he was drafted in 2010.
  • In his six career games in Buffalo, Gronkowski has 35 receptions for 583 yards and seven touchdowns, averaging 22.5 fantasy points per game with a low of 16.4 points.
  • Brandin Cooks has 27.5 percent of the New England targets over the past three weeks after receiving 17.5 percent over the first seven games.


Trust: Tom Brady (the Bills have held down passing scores all season, but they’ve been fortunate in that regard compared to the amount of completions and yardage they allow while Brady leads the position in fantasy points per possession), Rob Gronkowski (the Bills have only allowed two touchdowns to tight ends and they came to the same player, but Gronk has torched the Bills regularly in his hometown), Brandin Cooks (he’s been a more efficient player than he’s been at any point in his career and has seen a target spike now with Chris Hogan sidelined)


Bust: James White (he’s been phased out with the return of Burkhead), Danny Amendola (he still will pop up here and there with a target spike, but the loss of Hogan has meant more for Cooks than elevating Amendola), LeSean McCoy (he’s averaged 12.3 touches per game in the three games in which Buffalo has lost by multiple scores and the Patriots have allowed just one back to reach 100-yards from scrimmage since Week 1 and that involved an 87-yard touchdown run)


Reasonable Return: Dion Lewis / Rex Burkhead (it took us 11 games, but we finally have some stable clarity on using this backfield in fantasy. Lewis has had 14 or more touches in five straight games and has been an RB2 or better in three straight while Burkhead has double-digit touches in three of his past four games and been an RB2 in each of those games he’s had those touches), Tyrod Taylor (he’s a safe floor option, scoring 14 or more points in seven games, but more than 20 just twice), Zay Jones (he’s been a WR3 or better in three straight games with seven or more targets in each of those), Charles Clay (he’s had four or fewer targets in all three of his games since returning, but ran 24 routes last week, his highest in a game since Week 3), Travaris Cadet (I didn’t think I’d ever be typing his name ever again, but he’s been flex worthy the past two weeks while New England is 30th in receiving points allowed to backfields)


Broncos @ Dolphins 


-1   Spread 1  
19.8   Implied Total 18.8  
17.9 24 Points/Gm 15.8 31
25.5 27 Points All./Gm 26.3 26
66.4 3 Plays/Gm 60.6 27
59.6 3 Opp. Plays/Gm 60.8 5
40.4% 19 Rush% 36.1% 29
59.6% 14 Pass% 63.9% 4
45.3% 22 Opp. Rush % 45.1% 23
54.7% 11 Opp. Pass % 54.9% 10


  • Miami has trailed by multiple possessions for 44 percent of their offensive snaps on the season, highest rate in the league. Denver has trailed by multiple possessions for 43.4 percent of their offensive snaps, 31st.
  • Opponents have scored a touchdown on 26.9 percent of their possessions versus Miami, the highest rate in the league.
  • The Dolphins rank 30th in passing points allowed per attempt (.530) while Denver ranks last (.537).
  • Denver has allowed a touchdown pass once every 97.9 passing yards. League average outside of them is once every 171.9 yards.
  • Opponents have had 25 drives start in Denver territory, the most in the league.
  • Miami has had just five drives start in opposing territory, the fewest in the league.


Bust: Jay Cutler (he’s finished higher than QB18 just once and while Denver is allowing touchdowns on short fields, they are still allowing the third-lowest yards per game to opposing passers), Jarvis Landry (he’s a hard sit given his floor has been excellent and he has at least five catches in every game, but without Aqib Talib, targets should inherently flow away from Chris Harris, who will primarily be on Landry all game), DEN RBs (the matchup is strong as Miami has allowed season-high rushing output to Dion Lewis, Alex Collins and Jonathan Stewart over their past five games, but it’s a mess of a timeshare at the moment with Devontae Booker and C.J. Anderson totaling just 13 touches last week with an edge to Booker, eight to five), Emmanuel Sanders (he’s reached 20 percent of the team targets in just one of his past six games and has 30 or fewer yards in four of those six)


Reasonable Return: Kenyan Drake (with the backfield to himself, his receiving ability is enough to make him start-worthy for a floor while Denver will also be without Derek Wolfe and Domata Peko, two of their best run defenders), DeVante Parker /Kenny Stills (Denver has allowed just one wide receiver to reach 75 yards in a game this season, but both Parker and Stills move around to each side of the perimeter to make plays with the absence of Talib while the return of Cutler favors Parker in terms of targets), Julius Thomas (for those that need to reach deep into the cookie jar, Thomas was a TE1 a week ago while Denver is 28th in targets faced per game to opposing tight ends), Demaryius Thomas (the past three lead wideouts have all had at least five catches for 80 yards against the Dolphins), Trevor Siemian (he’s back under center and even though you don’t want to play him, Miami has allowed three straight QB1 games and multiple touchdowns in each of those games)


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Rich Hribar is a husband, father, sports meteorologist and a slave to statistics. A lifelong sports fan and fantasy gamer. You can find him on Twitter @LordReebs.
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