Rich Hribar

The Worksheet

print article archives RSS

The NFL Week 14 Worksheet

Wednesday, December 6, 2017


For most fantasy leagues, Week 14 means that this is the first week of the fantasy playoffs. Hopefully you made the dance and if you did, you earned a bye if your league provides. If by some poor fortune you’ve already been eliminated from your postseason, then you can still dabble into daily fantasy games to keep your fantasy fix satiated.

 

As for the token disclaimer, the goal of this article is to provide a top-down, statistical snapshot for each game each week, running down weekly point spreads, team totals, play calling splits, and statistical bullet points on the players and teams involved. Although we’re focusing strictly on PPR league scoring here as a baseline, there’s more than enough to spread around across formats and daily leagues. The reason we’re operating under a PPR umbrella is it allows us to cover a larger portion of the players involved in action weekly.

 

Lastly, as the author, it’s imperative that I note that this is NOT a start/sit column, rather an expectations column. The labels for each subset of players for each game are simply a vehicle for those expectations and have a different context for each player that you can find at the end of the column. I encourage that you use the game by game tables and data points here in conjunction with the Start/Sit column posted weekly by Nick Mensio, Pat Daugherty’s rankings in the Goal Line Stand, Evan Silva’s Matchup’s column, Ray Summerlin's Waiver Wired and most importantly, your own information and thought process. Remember, you control your own team. With that out of the way, let’s hit all the Week 14 games with a PPR light…

 

Saints @ Falcons

 

New OrleansRank@AtlantaRank
-1.5   Spread 1.5  
27.5   Implied Total 26.0  
29.4 3 Points/Gm 22.8 14
20.2 12 Points All./Gm 20.3 13
63.8 15 Plays/Gm 59.9 29
60.6 7 Opp. Plays/Gm 63.9 19
44.9% 10 Rush% 43.4% 14
55.1% 23 Pass% 56.6% 19
40.3% 8 Opp. Rush % 40.9% 10
59.7% 25 Opp. Pass % 59.1% 23

 

  • Alvin Kamara has scored a touchdown in six straight games, matching a franchise record for the Saints reached by four other players.
  • 51.2 percent (44-of-86) of Kamara's carries have gone for five or more yards, the only back with 50 or more carries on the season to have half of his runs gain that many yards. 26.7 percent of have gained 10 or more yards, the only back over 17 percent.
  • The Falcons rank 29th in the league in rate of runs allowed that go for five or more yards (35.9 percent) and 20th in rate of runs to go for 10 or more yards (11.5 percent).
  • Atlanta is allowing 9.9 yards per completion, the lowest rate in the league.
  • 9.9 percent of the completions allowed by the Falcons have gone for 20 or more yards, the second-lowest rate in the league.
  • 18.5 percent of Drew Brees' completions have gained 20 or more yards, the second-highest rate in the league for active quarterbacks after Jared Goff (20 percent).
  • 17.9 percent of the completions allowed by the Saints have gone for 20 or more yards, 30th in the league.
  • Devonta Freeman hasn't reached 100 yards from scrimmage in each of his past six games, his longest drought in a season since his rookie year.
  • Brees has thrown one or zero touchdown passes in six games this season, matching the most he's ever had in a season with the Saints.

 

Trust: Alvin Kamara (he's been an RB1 in seven straight weeks, posted 100 yards from scrimmage in five straight games and now Ingram is clearly less than 100 percent entering the game)

 

Bust: Ted Ginn (he hasn’t strictly been used as a vertical option this season, but his main attribute is impacted here against a team that is limiting splash plays out of the passing game), Matt Ryan (he’ll get a boost if Lattimore is inactive again since the Saints have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in three straight games after allowing just one over their previous seven games, but Ryan has thrown for 215 yards or fewer in three of his past four games and just hasn’t shown a ceiling on the season to date with a high finish in a week as QB10), Austin Hooper (you need a touchdown to carry him as he’s been a TE1 in just two of his past seven games)

 

Reasonable Return: Mark Ingram (his toe injury is potentially serious since he didn't put in any practice time, so you have to at least hedge on a ceiling performance and touch count, but if he plays, he still holds touchdown upside on limited opportunity as running backs have scored 45 percent of the touchdowns against Atlanta, the fifth highest rate in the league), Drew Brees (at this point, we can’t bank on positive touchdown regression setting in, but his floor is stable, while Atlanta has allowed a QB1 in five of their past seven games), Michael Thomas (like Brees, he’s had a high floor with few ceiling moments and the Falcons have limited opposing lead receivers, allowing just four WR1 scoring weeks to lead wideouts on the season and none since Week 6), Julio Jones (he's coming off his lowest scoring week in a full game this season which followed his highest and he’ll run into another tough draw against a defense that has allowed just two lead receivers to have WR1 weeks when Marshon Lattimore has been active, but with Lattimore’s health still unlikely to be 100 percent, we don’t have to run completely away), Devonta Freeman (he ran well in his return a week ago and the Saints have allowed 15 or more points to an opposing back in three straight games, but touches are still a looming concern for his ceiling as he’s had 15 or fewer touches in each of his past five games), Tevin Coleman (if he can roll over his six targets from a week ago that will have him back on the radar as an upside flex option as New Orleans is 24th in receiving points allowed to backfields per game), Mohamed Sanu (there’s low yardage upside here, but Sanu has had a usable floor, finishing as a WR3 in eight of his 10 full games)

 

Editor's Note: Build around these 5 players for your Week 14 lineups. Find out who here!

 

Packers @ Browns

 

Green BayRank@ClevelandRank
-3   Spread 3  
21.8   Implied Total 18.8  
21.5 20 Points/Gm 14.7 32
23.4 17 Points All./Gm 25.7 26
60.8 26 Plays/Gm 64.4 12
64.3 24 Opp. Plays/Gm 63.4 14
39.6% 23 Rush% 37.7% 27
60.4% 10 Pass% 62.4% 6
44.4% 24 Opp. Rush % 46.0% 31
55.6% 9 Opp. Pass % 54.0% 2

 

  • Josh Gordon played 76 percent of the snaps in his return and received 34.4 percent of the team targets, the third-highest rate for all wide receivers in Week 13.
  • Gordon was targeted on 37.9 percent of his routes, the highest rate of any receiver in Week 13.
  • DeShone Kizer has completed 9-of-32 of his passes (28.1 percent) in the red zone (lowest rate in the league) with league high five interceptions in the red zone.
  • Kizer leads the Browns with eight rushing attempts from inside of the 5-yard line and is tied with Todd Gurley for the second in the league in rushing touchdowns (five) from that area of the field.
  • Kizer averages 5.5 rushing points per game, second among active quarterbacks, while Hundley averages 3.7 (eighth) per game.
  • Out of the 40 passers with 100 or more attempts on the season, Kizer ranks 40th in passing points per attempt (21.9) while Brett Hundley ranks 39th (.266).
  • Green Bay is allowing .457 passing points per attempt (22nd) while Cleveland is allowing .506 (31st).
  • Only Le'Veon Bell has more touches (107) over the past four weeks than Jamaal Williams (91).
  • Williams leads the league with 30 carries of five or more yards over that span.

 

Trust: Jamaal Williams (I knocked him down in the middle of the week last week in fear of a timeshare with Aaron Jones, but Williams had every touch except for one and delivered with them. He’s now had 95, 135 and 123 yards from scrimmage over his past three games while Cleveland has allowed 119 yards rushing per game to opposing backfields over the past three weeks), Josh Gordon (it was just a one game sample, so we need to see his extremely high volume become sticky, but if his usage spills into this week against a Packers defense that is 31st in points allowed per target to opposing wideouts and that has allowed 13 top-20 wide receivers on the year, he should turn those opportunities into much more than 85 yards)

 

Bust: David Njoku (the Browns have finally started to get him involved, but you still need him to hit for a score against a team that has allowed just three touchdowns to opposing tight ends on the season), Jordy Nelson (the good news is that he led the team in targets last week, the bad news is that he had his sixth straight game with 35 or fewer yards), Brett Hundley (he offers rushing ability and Cleveland has allowed five top-12 scoring weeks to quarterbacks outside of the top-12 this season, but he showed last week that we can’t entrust him to be elevated solely by matchups),  Corey Coleman (the matchup is still favorable to make an intriguing DFS tournament pivot off of Gordon, but we’ve now seen that he has a zero-point floor in his range of outcomes and he dropped all the way down to four targets with the return of Gordon while asking Kizer to support multiple fantasy assets at the same position is a lot to ask)

 

Reasonable Return:  Isaiah Crowell (he’s had at least 95 yards from scrimmage in three of his past five games and is contingent on game script to hold RB2 value, but there’s arguably no better game to keep him involved on his remaining schedule), DeShone Kizer (he has been a QB1 in three of his past five games despite doing next to nothing through air. The Packers defense can elevate his passing floor while his rushing upside is always on the table), Duke Johnson (he posted a true dud with 12 total yards last week, but still holds flex appeal against a defense that is 26th in receptions allowed per game to opposing backs), Davante Adams (he still had 27 percent of the team targets last week, but it was reminder that he still holds a large portion of a smaller pie now as the Packers have had 26 or fewer targets available in four of their six games with Hundley under center)

 

Editor’s Note: FanDuel is hosting the Rotoworld Beat the Writers Series, where you can play against five Rotoworld football writers for your chance at cash prizes and free entry into their Sunday Million. Put your knowledge to the test!

 

Lions @ Buccaneers

 

DetroitRank@Tampa BayRank
-2   Spread 2  
23.5   Implied Total 21.5  
26.2 5 Points/Gm 20.2 22
25.7 27 Points All./Gm 24.0 21
62.3 22 Plays/Gm 64.3 14
63.7 17 Opp. Plays/Gm 63.8 18
37.4% 29 Rush% 37.7% 26
62.6% 4 Pass% 62.3% 7
42.9% 16 Opp. Rush % 43.1% 18
57.1% 17 Opp. Pass % 56.9% 15

 

  • Detroit has allowed a rushing touchdown in seven straight games, the longest streak in the league.
  • 55.9 percent of all the red zone plays versus the Lions have come from inside of the 10-yard line, the highest rate in the league.
  • The Lions have faced a league-high 39 rushing attempts from inside of the 10-yard line this season and a league-high 22 from inside of the 5-yard line.
  • With Peyton Barber's 143 yards from scrimmage last week, Tampa Bay has now had six games over the past two years in which a RB has posted 100 yards from scrimmage. Doug Martin has one of those games.
  • Barber handled 48.2 percent of the team touches, the highest rate a Tampa Bay running back has had in a game this season.
  • Over the past eight weeks, Marvin Jones is the WR5 in overall scoring with seven games of double-digit scoring over that span, tied for second in the league.
  • Over that span, Jones is averaging 17.3 yards per reception, the second highest rate for all players with 30 or more receptions over that time.

 

Trust: Matthew Stafford (keep a close watch on the status of his throwing hand, but if he’s good to go, then this is a strong spot as Stafford has shown over the past three years to be a matchup driven quarterback and Tampa Bay is 31st in passing yards allowed per game), Marvin Jones (he has the highest touchdown upside on Detroit and has shown to have a steady floor with 85 or more yards in six of his past seven games), Jameis Winston (as up and down as his real life performance has been, he's been a fantasy QB1 in four of his past five full games played while Detroit has allowed QB13 or higher weeks to Joe Flacco, Case Keenum, DeShone Kizer and Brett Hundley in four of their past five games with the added bonus of three rushing scores to that group)

 

Bust:  Theo Riddick (he’ll be back on the flex map as a floor play if Abdullah is inactive again, but the Buccaneers are eighth in receiving points allowed to opposing backfields), Doug Martin (he hasn't been an RB2 since Week 6 and with Barber playing well, may never reclaim the full role he had prior), Peyton Barber  (with Martin returning, his touches are a question mark, but Barber is unlikely to be shelved completely while the Lions are just handing out rushing touchdowns to backs on the year if you need to chase), Tion Green (with Ameer Abdullah expected to be benched, Green will take over his role, but is still only a floor flex option as Detroit systematically struggles to run the ball and he won't get much work in the passing game with Riddick having a grasp on that role)

 

Reasonable Return: Golden Tate (he has posted a pedestrian 7.2 yards per catch over his past three games, but his opportunity has rebounded with 18 targets over the past two weeks while Tampa Bay has allowed seven sets of WR tandems to post top-30 weeks), Mike Evans (he’s been a WR3 or lower four of his past five games and the Lions have yet to allow a top-12 game to an opposing WR1 on the season, leaving Evans unlikely as a ceiling target), DeSean Jackson (he’ll have the benefit of Evans drawing Darius Slay away from him, but has just one touchdown from Winston on the season), Cameron Brate (Winston came back and so did his touchdown upside while the Lions have allowed an opposing tight end to score in three straight games), Kenny Golladay (if you’re thin at the position or want to make a swing from your heels as a stacking partner in DFS, Golladay has run 26 and 29 routes the past two weeks and is tied for the league lead with three 40-yard receptions since returning in Week 10)

 

Raiders @ Chiefs

 

OaklandRank@Kansas CityRank
4   Spread -4  
21.8   Implied Total 25.8  
20.8 21 Points/Gm 25.2 6
23.2 16 Points All./Gm 22.8 15
60.0 28 Plays/Gm 59.3 30
61.2 8 Opp. Plays/Gm 67.5 31
38.9% 25 Rush% 39.2% 24
61.1% 8 Pass% 60.8% 9
43.3% 19 Opp. Rush % 45.1% 28
56.7% 14 Opp. Pass % 54.9% 5

 

  • Kansas City is the only team in the league with more touchdowns scored from outside of the red zone (15) than inside (14). League average is 71.3 percent of offensive touchdowns scored from inside of the red zone.
  • Travis Kelce leads all tight ends with 18 receptions on throws 15 yards or further downfield and ranks fourth in the entire league.
  • The Chiefs averaged 1.6 offensive touchdowns per game at home (28th) as opposed to 3.0 per game on the road (T-1).
  • Over his past seven games, Kareem Hunt has 24 runs of five or more yards (25 percent) and seven runs of 10 or more yards (7.3 percent) on 96 carries.
  • Over his first five games, Hunt had 36 runs of five or more yards (37.1 percent) and 18 runs of 10 or more yards (18.6 percent) on 97 rushing attempts.
  • The Chiefs run the ball 38.9 percent of the time when the game is within one possession in either direction, 29th in the league.
  • The Raiders allow 1.59 passing points per drive, the most in the league.
  • The Chiefs are allowing just 20.1 completions per game (seventh), but allow 13.1 yards per completion (31st).
  • Kansas City has allowed seven 100-yard wide receivers on the season, the most in the league.

 

Trust: Travis Kelce (the league’s best deep threat at his position against a defense that has allowed seven TE1 weeks on the season, including to Kelce himself in Week 7), Alex Smith (often these divisional rematches end up tighter than anticipated and the Chiefs haven’t played as well at home so far, but everything sets up for Smith to pop in a similar fashion as he did when these teams first met. Oakland managed to limit both Geno Smith and Paxton Lynch the past two weeks, but previously had allowed five straight QB1 weeks prior and are still 30th on the year in passing points allowed per game), Tyreek Hill (he’s averaging just 38.2 receiving yards per game at home on the season, but Hill has been stable through all of the Chiefs' down moments the past month, scoring 12 or more points in four straight games while he’s just a mismatch for the longer Oakland corners, catching 12 passes for 191 yards and two touchdowns in the past two times these teams have played)

 

Bust: Jared Cook (he had 6-107 when these teams last met, but just 13.4 percent of the fantasy points scored against the Chiefs have been posted by tight ends, which is the second lowest rate in the league. Outside of that, Cook has had an incredible layout the past few weeks in terms of matchup and opportunity with Oakland missing key pass catchers and he’s totaled four catches for 46 yards over his past three games), Cordarrelle Patterson (he offers the most upside per touch out of the Oakland backup wideouts, but played the fewest snaps of the group last week and had just four targets)

 

Reasonable Return: Kareem Hunt (he hasn’t even been an RB2 in four of his past five games and has just 12 touches in each of the past two games, but Oakland is still 21st in yards from scrimmage allowed to running backs and the Chiefs are a home favorite with a moderately high team total, so we can’t just leave him for dead), Derek Carr (he’s been a QB1 in just one of his past nine games and has been the QB19, QB22 and QB29 in his career at Arrowhead, so that’s keeping us from going all in, but the Chiefs have allowed some high-ceiling games on the year, surrendering five top-3 scoring performances including one to Carr himself), Michael Crabtree (he’s been lackluster since his mid-season touchdown streak, catching just 17 passes for 198 yards over his past four games and has never topped 45 yards over five games against the Chiefs with the Raiders, but with Cooper looking doubtful and Marcus Peters suspended, he should be the player the passing game runs through against a defense we have targeted with receiver play), Johnny Holton/Seth Roberts (both are deeper digs with Crabtree returning, but with Cooper still expected to be out and Cook not being involved, both will have opportunities. Holton played the most snaps at receiver last week and will be the starting LWR while having the upside for a big play against a defense giving up tons of them and Roberts plays nearly exclusively inside, an area that we have targeted versus the Chiefs weekly),  Marshawn Lynch (being a road underdog is the only blemish here as Oakland hasn't had success in Arrowhead under Carr, but he’s been a top-10 back in three of his past four games and his yards from scrimmage have risen in four straight weeks while the Chiefs are 25th in rushing points allowed per attempt)

 


continue story »
Rich Hribar is a husband, father, sports meteorologist and a slave to statistics. A lifelong sports fan and fantasy gamer. You can find him on Twitter @LordReebs.
Email :Rich Hribar



Highest Searched Players over the last 7 days



Video Center

  •  
    Matchups: Bortles vs. Texans

    Matchups: Bortles vs. Texans
  •  
    Dose: Osweiler leads DEN

    Dose: Osweiler leads DEN
  •  
    RotoPat: Start Rodgers

    RotoPat: Start Rodgers
  •  
    Rankings: Steelers on top

    Rankings: Steelers on top
  •  
    Dose: Rodgers returns for GB

    Dose: Rodgers returns for GB
  •  
    Waivers: Wentz replacements

    Waivers: Wentz replacements
  •  
    Dose: Miami upsets NE

    Dose: Miami upsets NE
  •  
    Dose: PIT

    Dose: PIT's O crushes BAL