Rich Hribar

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Rankings vs DFS Pricing Plays

Saturday, December 16, 2017


As usual, the goal of this article is simple. At the end of the week, we’re taking our composite staff rankings from our Season Pass section in Week 15 and comparing those rankings as it pertains to players we see as starting caliber options to the pricing across the two major DFS sites in hopes of discovering some value. It's that simple. 

 

Cam Newton – QB3

FanDuel: QB8 ($7,900) DraftKings: QB9 ($6,400)


Newton has held one of the safest fantasy floors due to his rushing, with owners starting with a bed of points before even looking at the passing potential for him in this matchup. Newton is averaging 8.4 rushing points per game over his past eight games. For context, that would rank 14th among running backs on the season. As for his matchup, opponents have scored on 39.9 percent of their drives versus Green Bay -the second highest rate in the league – and they have been getting smacked by opposing quarterbacks over their past three games. The Packers have allowed three straight QB1 scoring weeks with the two most recent being DeShone Kizer and Jameis Winston after he missed a month of action. To add on, the return of Aaron Rodgers isn’t just a positive for the Green Bay side of things, but also has potential to raise the tides of Carolina offense as well since he provides this game more of an opportunity to shoot out than if Brett Hundley were starting.

 

Blake Bortles – QB12

FanDuel: QB18 ($7,400) DraftKings: QB20 ($5,700)


Bortles has been a solid option for fantasy at this price point before we even uncover his matchup this week. Bortles had 16 or more points in six of his past seven games and has been a QB1 in three straight with 18.5 points or more in those games. Over their past nine games, Houston has allowed 276.6 passing yards per game (30th) and 18 passing touchdowns (31st) while the only quarterbacks that failed to post 15 or more fantasy points against Houston over that span have been Joe Flacco and Kevin Hogan.

 

Kenyan Drake – RB7

FanDuel: RB20 ($6,500) DraftKings: RB16 ($5,800)


Over his past two games with the backfield all to himself, Drake has shown off the combo ability in the run and pass game that Miami saw in him as a prospect when they made him the third running back to selected in the 2016 draft behind Ezekiel Elliott and Derrick Henry. Drake has 26 and 30 touches over the past two weeks with 141 and 193 total yards and a score. Damien Williams returned to limited practice to end the week, but is listed as doubtful for this week’s game. Drake also has RB7 and RB23 scoring weeks in two of the three games when he was in a true split with Williams, so we don’t have to run completely away if Williams is surprisingly active. Buffalo is the only team in the league to allow more rushing touchdowns (18) than passing touchdowns (11) and 40.6 percent of the fantasy output posted by skill players versus Buffalo has been put up by running backs, the second highest rate in the league behind Cincinnati (40.9 percent).

 

Alex Collins – RB12

FanDuel: RB19 ($6,600) DraftKings: RB25 ($5,000)


Collins now has double-digit points in five of his past six games and is averaging 18.8 touches per game over that span. He’s scored in four straight contests and ranks fourth in the league in yards per rushing attempt (5.1) on the season. The Browns defense has gotten progressively leaky to opposing backfields as they’ve lost Jamie Collins and Emmanuel Ogbah for the season and run-stuffing defensive tackle Danny Shelton is dealing with a chest and rib injury that forced him to miss last week’s game. Cleveland has allowed the lead back of each of the past four teams they’ve faced to clear 100-yards from scrimmage after allowing two to reach that total over their opening nine games.

 

Devin Funchess – WR7

FanDuel: WR11 ($7,300) DraftKings: WR14 ($6,600)


Funchess has been a target machine in the Carolina passing game. Funchess has been targeted on 28.3 percent of his routes over the past five weeks after 20.9 percent through eight games with Kelvin Benjamin on the roster. Even dating back to when Benjamin was around, Funchess has received seven or more targeted in 10 of his past 12 games. He’s also found the end zone with his opportunities, scoring four touchdowns over his past four outings. This week he draws a secondary that is allowing the third most yardage per game to opposing WR1s (83.4) and just lost another defender in their secondary in Davon House, who has been used in recent games to shadow the oppositions best passing option.

 

Dez Bryant – WR9

FanDuel: WR22 ($7,000) DraftKings: WR17 ($6,500)


It’s easy to forget about Bryant since he’s not on the main slate of games, but his pricing is affordable for those playing in the contests he’s in. Bryant has just 17 targets over his past three games, but has found the end zone in back to back weeks and he and his quarterback run into a stellar matchup on Sunday Night. The Raiders are 27th in passing points allowed per game (16.0) to opposing passers and 29th in points allowed per target to opposing wide receivers (1.78). If Prescott is going to hit in this matchup, there’s a direct trickle down that starts with Bryant.

 

Dede Westbrook – WR27

FanDuel: WR50 ($5,700) DraftKings: WR39 ($5,100)


Over Westbrook’s first four games, he’s been targeted on 29.2 percent of his routes, which would trail only Antonio Brown and Julio Jones if it were over the course of the entirety of the season. He’s led the team in targets in two of their past three games and his yardage has risen in each game.  We already like Blake Bortles this week as mentioned, and Westbrook goes hand in hand with Bortles as a streamer as he fits the archetype of receiver that has given the Texans nightmares. Houston has struggled with speed receivers, allowing over 100-yards to Marquise Goodwin, Tyler Lockett, Paul Richardson, T.Y. Hilton and Brandin Cooks and they’re tied in allowing the most receptions of 40 or more yards on the season at 13.

 

O.J. Howard – TE15

FanDuel: TE22 ($5,200) DraftKings: TE25 ($3,000)


The Buccaneers have shifted to giving more playing time and passing game opportunity to their first-round pick as the season draws a close. Howard is running 23.7 routes per game over the past three weeks as opposed to 15.6 per game through 10 weeks per Pro Football Focus and he has 50 or more receiving yards in three of those games. Cameron Brate always loom to steal a red zone target away, but isn’t too much of a threat as Brate has just seven catches over his past six games as Tampa Bay has clearly tried to give more opportunity to Howard down the final stretch of the season. 



Rich Hribar is a husband, father, sports meteorologist and a slave to statistics. A lifelong sports fan and fantasy gamer. You can find him on Twitter @LordReebs.
Email :Rich Hribar



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