Justin Bailey

Targets and Touches

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Week 16: AFC Targets & Touches

Wednesday, December 27, 2017


Targets and Touches will only have players’ six most recent games, regardless of whether they were active or on a bye. The most recent target/touch will be on the right side. I also decided to add carries inside the five-yard line for running backs rather than just red zone carries. Carries inside the five are more valuable overall as the average touchdown rate over the last 10 years from within five yards is 39 percent, with a substantial drop from further out.

 

All targets and touches data is compiled from Pro Football Reference. Cornerback data is sourced via Pro Football Focus. The NFC will be released on Tuesdays, while the AFC is published on Wednesday.

 

The goal of these articles is to give you an idea of what the usage looks like for each player within their offenses, allowing you to spot any positive or negative trends regarding how a player is being used, and most importantly — letting the numbers tell the story.

 

Note: With most fantasy seasons wrapped up this week, for Week 16 and Week 17, I’ll be adding a greater range of players just for a visual for you to see where some usage has increased or decreased among lesser-known players. This piece will also be more of a recap of how certain players finished the fantasy season.   

 

Baltimore Ravens

 

Targets: Mike Wallace (4, 11, 8, 5, 10, 6), Jeremy Maclin (5, 5, 8, 11, 1, 0), Benjamin Watson (1, 3, 5, 1, 4, 6), Javorius Allen (1, 1, 1, 2, 3, 1), Breshad Perriman (0, 2, 0, 0, 2, 4), Chris Moore (0, 3, 4, 3, 3, 2), Nick Boyle (2, 1, 3, 1, 2, 4), Danny Woodhead (6, 4, 2, 5, 7, 6), Alex Collins (7, 2, 2, 2, 8, 4), Michael Campanaro (0, 0, 0, 3, 1, 2), Maxx Williams (2, 1, 2, 0, 1, 3)


Carries: Alex Collins (20, 16, 15, 18, 12, 18), Javorius Allen (3, 5, 7, 6, 13, 8), Danny Woodhead (1, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1), Michael Campanaro (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1), Chris Moore (0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0), Maxx Williams (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0)


RZ Targets: Benjamin Watson (0, 0, 2, 0, 0, 1), Mike Wallace (0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1), Nick Boyle (0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 2), Danny Woodhead (2, 0, 0, 1, 2, 0), Javorius Allen (0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0), Chris Moore (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0), Maxx Williams (1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1), Alex Collins (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1), Michael Campanaro (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1)


RZ Carries: Javorius Allen (1, 1, 3, 2, 2, 4), Alex Collins (3, 2, 4, 3, 5, 4), Danny Woodhead (0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0)


Inside 5 Carries: Javorius Allen (0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0), Alex Collins (1, 0, 0, 0, 2, 0)


Coverage Data (via PFF): Brandon Carr (3-56-0, 3-43-0, 2-10-0, 8-141-0, 3-36-0, 3-50-0), Jimmy Smith (3-47-0, 5-108-0, 1-31-0, 0, 0, 0), Lardarius Webb (1-7-0, 2-10-0, 2-38-0, 1-5-0, 1-1-0, 0), Marlon Humphrey (2-25-0, 0, 5-116-0, 6-37-0, 1-16-0, 2-39-0), Maurice Canady (0, 2-3-0, 3-17-0, 2-12-0, 4-28-0, 1-9-0)

 

Observations: Since Week 5 when Alex Collins started to see an expanded role, he ranked 11th among running backs with 17.1 touches per game and finished as the RB13 during that 11-game span. Joe Flacco finished as the QB24 this season.


Editor’s Note: Nobody hit FanDuel’s Golden 5 jackpot this season, meaning the prize has grown to a massive $340,000. And this week, regardless of whether or not someone hits a perfect lineup, they’re giving away that $340K to whoever wins this week’s final contest. Play FREE for your shot at $340,000!

 

Buffalo Bills

 

Targets: LeSean McCoy (1, 4, 5, 0, 5, 7), Zay Jones (7, 10, 7, 0, 2, 1), Charles Clay (4, 4, 3, 5, 9, 10), Deonte Thompson (8, 2, 8, 1, 4, 5), Jordan Matthews (0, 3, 3, 0, 0, 0), Nick O'Leary (3, 2, 0, 1, 2, 1), Kelvin Benjamin (1, 0, 0, 8, 2, 7), Andre Holmes (3, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0), Travaris Cadet (6, 3, 5, 0, 1, 1), Mike Tolbert (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2), Brandon Tate (5, 0, 0, 0, 1, 3), Logan Thomas (0, 0, 2, 0, 0, 0), Patrick DiMarco (1, 0, 0, 0, 2, 1)


Carries: LeSean McCoy (13, 22, 15, 32, 20, 17), Mike Tolbert (0, 0, 0, 6, 0, 3), Travaris Cadet (3, 6, 4, 4, 4, 1)


RZ Targets: LeSean McCoy (1, 0, 2, 0, 1, 1), Charles Clay (1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 4), Zay Jones (1, 1, 3, 0, 0, 0), Kelvin Benjamin (0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1), Brandon Tate (2, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0), Patrick DiMarco (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1), Deonte Thompson (0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0), Mike Tolbert (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1), Travaris Cadet (1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0)


RZ Carries: LeSean McCoy (1, 1, 2, 1, 3, 2), Travaris Cadet (0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0)


Inside 5 Carries: LeSean McCoy (1, 0, 0, 0, 3, 0)


Coverage Data (via PFF): E.J. Gaines (9-98-1, 6-28-0, 1-8-0, 1-0-0, 2-20-0, 0), Lafayette Pitts (0, 0, 1-13-0, 0, 0, 0), Leonard Johnson (2-24-1, 7-80-1, 1-5-0, 0, 9-95-0, 4-58-0), Shareece Wright (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2-21-0), Tre'Davious White (2-19-0, 2-19-0, 2-34-0, 0, 3-58-0, 0)


 

Observations: LeSean McCoy finished third among running backs with 22.2 touches per game, but he was one of the more inefficient backs with .78 PPR points per touch. McCoy finished as the RB7 among running backs in PPR leagues.

 

Cincinnati Bengals

 

Targets: A.J. Green (9, 8, 16, 12, 4, 10), Brandon LaFell (5, 6, 7, 6, 6, 6), Tyler Kroft (3, 4, 2, 1, 4, 5), Giovani Bernard (2, 1, 3, 8, 5, 7), Joe Mixon (2, 3, 1, 0, 0, 3), Tyler Boyd (1, 2, 3, 4, 0, 6), Josh Malone (0, 1, 2, 1, 3, 1), Alex Erickson (2, 1, 0, 1, 2, 0), C.J. Uzomah (0, 0, 1, 1, 4, 1), Brian Hill (0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1), Ryan Hewitt (0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0)


Carries: Joe Mixon (20, 23, 7, 0, 0, 3), Giovani Bernard (3, 3, 13, 11, 14, 23), Brian Hill (0, 0, 0, 2, 5, 4), Josh Malone (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1)


RZ Targets: A.J. Green (1, 1, 5, 0, 0, 0), Brandon LaFell (0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0), Tyler Kroft (1, 2, 0, 0, 0, 3), Giovani Bernard (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 3), C.J. Uzomah (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1), Josh Malone (0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0), Tyler Boyd (0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1), Alex Erickson (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0)


RZ Carries: Joe Mixon (2, 7, 1, 0, 0, 0), Giovani Bernard (0, 1, 1, 0, 2, 3), Brian Hill (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2)


Inside 5 Carries: Joe Mixon (2, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0), Giovani Bernard (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0)


Coverage Data (via PFF): Adam Jones (0, 1-8-0, 1-20-0, 0, 0, 0), Darqueze Dennard (4-39-0, 0, 3-13-0, 3-27-0, 3-19-0, 6-47-0), Dre Kirkpatrick (4-59-1, 4-65-0, 7-76-1, 0, 0, 4-47-0), Josh Shaw (3-38-0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0), Keivarae Russell (0, 0, 0, 3-26-0, 0, 0), Tony McRae (0, 0, 0, 0, 1-20-1, 0), William Jackson (0, 0, 2-5-0, 1-3-0, 0, 0)

 

Observations: A.J. Green finished the season ninth in targets among wide receivers, and 10th in PPR scoring, behind Jarvis Landry, and Adam Thielen. Joe Mixon averaged 14.5 touches per game this year but averaged just .70 fantasy points per touch.

 

Cleveland Browns

 

Targets: Duke Johnson (6, 5, 4, 4, 7, 7), Ricardo Louis (4, 2, 0, 0, 1, 1), David Njoku (1, 4, 6, 2, 3, 3), Seth DeValve (3, 2, 3, 3, 4, 4), Corey Coleman (11, 8, 4, 6, 3, 6), Rashard Higgins (2, 3, 0, 1, 2, 3), Isaiah Crowell (0, 2, 1, 3, 5, 4), Kenny Britt (2, 2, 3, 0, 0, 0), Josh Gordon (0, 0, 11, 6, 11, 8), Bryce Treggs (0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0), Sammie Coates (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0), Dan Vitale (0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0), Matt Dayes (2, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0), Randall Telfer (0, 0, 0, 2, 0, 0)


Carries: Isaiah Crowell (11, 16, 10, 19, 5, 12), Duke Johnson (2, 6, 7, 6, 7, 4), Matt Dayes (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1)


RZ Targets: David Njoku (0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0), Corey Coleman (0, 1, 2, 1, 0, 1), Duke Johnson (0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0), Isaiah Crowell (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0), Rashard Higgins (0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1), Josh Gordon (0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0), Randall Telfer (0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0)


RZ Carries: Isaiah Crowell (0, 6, 0, 0, 0, 0), Duke Johnson (0, 1, 2, 1, 1, 0)


Inside 5 Carries: Isaiah Crowell (0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0)


Coverage Data (via PFF): Briean Boddy-Calhoun (0, 1-18-0, 2-10-0, 0, 0, 0), C.J. Smith (0, 0, 0, 0, 1-12-0, 0), Jamar Taylor (3-41-0, 0, 3-63-0, 4-25-0, 0, 2-40-0), Jason McCourty (0, 6-75-0, 9-127-1, 10-105-3, 4-49-0, 2-12-0), Mike Jordan (0, 0, 0, 2-13-0, 2-30-0, 0)

 

Observations: Over the course of 15 games, Isaiah Crowell averaged 14.6 touches per game and averaged .64 PPR points per touch, while Duke Johnson averaged 9.6 touches per game while averaging 1.37 PPR points per touch. In Josh Gordon’s four active games this year, he averaged 9.0 targets per game and averaged 10.5 PPR points per game.


Denver Broncos

 

Bennie Fowler (1, 4, 4, 0, 0, 3), C.J. Anderson (3, 0, 7, 2, 1, 9), Devontae Booker (6, 2, 1, 2, 1, 8), Cody Latimer (3, 4, 3, 3, 4, 0), Jamaal Charles (0, 3, 5, 3, 0, 0), Virgil Green (4, 3, 1, 0, 1, 0), Jeff Heuerman (0, 0, 0, 2, 1, 2), Austin Traylor (5, 4, 2, 0, 0, 2), Jordan Taylor (1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2), Isaiah McKenzie (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2), Andy Janovich (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2), De'Angelo Henderson (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1)


Carries: C.J. Anderson (13, 5, 15, 22, 30, 16), Devontae Booker (14, 6, 2, 9, 11, 8), Jamaal Charles (3, 1, 3, 0, 0, 0), Andy Janovich (0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0), De'Angelo Henderson (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1)


RZ Targets: Demaryius Thomas (1, 1, 1, 3, 1, 0), Emmanuel Sanders (0, 0, 0, 2, 0, 0), C.J. Anderson (0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0), Devontae Booker (0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1), Virgil Green (0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0), Jamaal Charles (0, 0, 0, 2, 0, 0), Cody Latimer (1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0), Austin Traylor (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1)


RZ Carries: C.J. Anderson (2, 0, 0, 3, 3, 1), Devontae Booker (5, 1, 1, 1, 3, 0), Andy Janovich (0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0)


Inside 5 Carries: C.J. Anderson (1, 0, 0, 2, 0, 1), Andy Janovich (0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0), Devontae Booker (0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0)


Coverage Data (via PFF): Aqib Talib (4-34-0, 0, 0, 0, 2-8-0, 1-13-0), Bradley Roby (2-47-2, 2-19-0, 2-42-0, 0, 2-14-0, 5-103-1), Brendan Langley (0, 2-63-1, 0, 0, 0, 0), Chris Harris Jr. (1-3-0, 0, 2-37-0, 1-5-0, 3-36-0, 2-52-1)

 

Observations: The Broncos offense was not great for fantasy purposes as their messy quarterback situation left much to be desired from a fantasy standpoint. Demaryius Thomas averaged 8.8 targets per game and managed to finish as the WR18 in PPR leagues.


Houston Texans

 

Targets: DeAndre Hopkins (9, 10, 14, 16, 13, 6), Bruce Ellington (7, 8, 2, 0, 0, 0), Stephen Anderson (3, 0, 12, 6, 3, 2), Will Fuller (0, 0, 0, 5, 5, 5), Lamar Miller (5, 3, 4, 2, 4, 1), Braxton Miller (3, 6, 4, 0, 0, 2), C.J. Fiedorowicz (2, 8, 3, 0, 0, 0), Andre Ellington (0, 0, 6, 2, 0, 0), D'Onta Foreman (3, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0), DeAndrew White (0, 0, 0, 6, 1, 0), Alfred Blue (0, 2, 1, 0, 1, 0), Chris Thompson (0, 0, 2, 0, 0, 0), Jay Prosch (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0), Cobi Hamilton (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0), Ryan Malleck (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1)


Carries: Lamar Miller (22, 17, 15, 17, 9, 10), D'Onta Foreman (10, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0), Alfred Blue (0, 8, 4, 0, 12, 16), Andre Ellington (0, 0, 2, 3, 0, 0), Bruce Ellington (1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0)


RZ Targets: DeAndre Hopkins (1, 0, 3, 1, 0, 1), Stephen Anderson (0, 0, 4, 0, 0, 0), Bruce Ellington (0, 3, 0, 0, 0, 0), Lamar Miller (1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1), Will Fuller (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1), Braxton Miller (0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 2), C.J. Fiedorowicz (0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0), Alfred Blue (0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0)


RZ Carries: Lamar Miller (2, 1, 1, 0, 0, 2), D'Onta Foreman (1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0), Alfred Blue (0, 0, 3, 0, 0, 2), Andre Ellington (0, 0, 2, 0, 0, 0)


Inside 5 Carries: Lamar Miller (1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0), Alfred Blue (0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1), D'Onta Foreman (1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0), Andre Ellington (0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0)


Coverage Data (via PFF): Johnathan Joseph (5-138-1, 4-37-1, 2-26-0, 3-12-0, 3-65-0, 5-115-0), Kareem Jackson (8-88-1, 8-71-0, 2-10-0, 2-33-0, 4-47-0, 3-34-2), Kevin Johnson (1--2-0, 2-48-2, 3-8-0, 3-49-1, 4-57-0, 3-51-0), Marcus Williams (2-24-1, 0, 1-22-0, 1--1-0, 0, 0)


Observations: DeAndre Hopkins crushed this season, averaging 11.6 targets per game and leading the league with 174 targets. He finished as the No. 4 overall fantasy scorer in PPR leagues, trailing only Todd Gurley, Le’Veon Bell and Russell Wilson.

 

Indianapolis Colts


Targets: Jack Doyle (0, 8, 5, 3, 8, 10), T.Y. Hilton (0, 5, 6, 4, 7, 12), Donte Moncrief (0, 3, 8, 0, 0, 0), Kamar Aiken (0, 0, 2, 0, 1, 2), Frank Gore (0, 5, 0, 1, 4, 2), Chester Rogers (0, 4, 6, 4, 3, 4), Marlon Mack (0, 2, 2, 3, 1, 2), Brandon Williams (0, 0, 2, 3, 1, 0), Ross Travis (0, 0, 0, 2, 2, 1), Josh Ferguson (0, 0, 3, 0, 1, 0)


Carries: Frank Gore (0, 17, 13, 36, 10, 17), Marlon Mack (0, 4, 6, 7, 6, 4), Chester Rogers (0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0)


RZ Targets: T.Y. Hilton (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2), Jack Doyle (0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 2), Donte Moncrief (0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0), Kamar Aiken (0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0), Frank Gore (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1), Chester Rogers (0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1), Marlon Mack (0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0), Ross Travis (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1)


RZ Carries: Frank Gore (0, 5, 2, 1, 0, 2), Marlon Mack (0, 0, 0, 2, 1, 0)


Coverage Data (via PFF): D.J. White (0, 0, 0, 0, 3-45-1, 0), Kenny Moore II (0, 1-19-0, 5-80-0, 2-55-0, 3-49-0, 4-40-0), Nate Hairston (0, 6-52-0, 5-36-2, 0, 0, 1-9-0), Pierre Desir (0, 2-16-0, 3-21-0, 0, 0, 0), Quincy Wilson (0, 0, 2-36-0, 2-18-0, 6-76-0, 1-2-0)


Observations: Jack Doyle averaged 7.4 targets per game, which was the sixth-most among tight ends and he finished as the TE8 in PPR leagues. T.Y. Hilton strung together a few big games this season, but finished as the WR25, averaging 11.4 PPR points per game.


Jacksonville Jaguars

 

Targets: Marqise Lee (9, 2, 10, 6, 0, 0), Keelan Cole (6, 7, 3, 3, 9, 13), Marcedes Lewis (2, 2, 5, 2, 2, 1), Leonard Fournette (3, 3, 4, 6, 0, 3), Dede Westbrook (6, 10, 9, 8, 2, 7), T.J. Yeldon (2, 6, 2, 0, 5, 10), Chris Ivory (0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0), James O'Shaughnessy (1, 2, 1, 1, 2, 6), Jaydon Mickens (0, 0, 0, 0, 5, 4), Ben Koyack (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 2), Jaelen Strong (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 4), Larry Pinkard (0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0)


Carries: Leonard Fournette (28, 12, 20, 24, 0, 18), Chris Ivory (6, 1, 4, 6, 17, 0), T.J. Yeldon (5, 3, 0, 2, 7, 5), Corey Grant (0, 0, 0, 0, 10, 0), Tommy Bohanon (1, 0, 0, 0, 2, 0)


RZ Targets: Marcedes Lewis (1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0), Marqise Lee (0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0), James O'Shaughnessy (0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 4), Jaydon Mickens (0, 0, 0, 0, 3, 2), Keelan Cole (0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0), Chris Ivory (0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0), Dede Westbrook (0, 0, 1, 2, 0, 1), Leonard Fournette (0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0), T.J. Yeldon (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0), Jaelen Strong (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1)


RZ Carries: Leonard Fournette (0, 0, 6, 4, 0, 1), Chris Ivory (0, 0, 1, 0, 5, 0), T.J. Yeldon (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 2), Tommy Bohanon (0, 0, 0, 0, 2, 0), Corey Grant (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0)


Inside 5 Carries: Leonard Fournette (0, 0, 2, 1, 0, 1), Chris Ivory (0, 0, 0, 0, 3, 0), Tommy Bohanon (0, 0, 0, 0, 2, 0), T.J. Yeldon (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2)


Coverage Data (via PFF): A.J. Bouye (2-16-0, 2-24-0, 6-37-0, 2-8-0, 3-29-0, 2-16-0), Aaron Colvin (1-5-0, 1-7-0, 8-52-0, 3-20-0, 3-18-0, 1-6-0), Jalen Ramsey (4-46-0, 3-4-0, 3-58-1, 2-81-1, 4-80-1, 3-36-0)


Observations: Leonard Fournette played 12 games this season, which hindered is overall performance, but he finished eighth on a per-game basis, averaging 17.7 PPR points per game.



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Justin Bailey has been working with Rotoworld since 2015. His stat-forward analysis can also be found on FantasyLabs and 4for4. Follow him on Twitter - @justinbailey32.
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