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QB/RB Grind Down: Week 17

Thursday, December 28, 2017


The final week of the regular season is upon us, and it brings a lot of question marks along with it. It’s going to be super important to watch the inactive lists on Sunday this week, and in general, I’m going to build a lot of my lineups around teams that have something to play for.

 

 

Let’s get into my top picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and DRAFT.

 

 

 

QUARTERBACK


Cash Game Targets

 

Russell Wilson vs. Arizona Cardinals

 

Wilson is one of my top plays, and I will have a lot of ownership to him in all formats this weekend. Seattle is in a must-win situation, as they need a victory and an Atlanta loss to make the playoffs. With these teams playing at the same time, I like Wilson to play a full game this weekend. And while Wilson has struggled in the last two games, this is an excellent bounce-back spot for him. He threw for 238 yards and two touchdowns in Arizona earlier this season, and he’s had at least 24 fantasy points in seven of the last 10 games. The Cardinals have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in four of the last seven games. Wilson has a high floor and adds a massive ceiling with his rushing ability.

 

 

Philip Rivers vs. Oakland Raiders

 

Like Wilson, Rivers is playing in a must-win game this weekend, but they’re going to need the Titans to lose and a win against Oakland to make the playoffs. With Melvin Gordon banged up, Rivers could throw the ball a little more in this game, and he draws a great matchup against Oakland. The Raiders are ranked 27th in DVOA against the pass and are allowing the 17th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. They’ve been playing better lately, but they’ve also had some good matchups. I’m not reading too much into recent performances for Week 17, so I’m looking at Rivers, who has thrown at least one touchdown in all but one game this season, in a must-win game this weekend.

 

 

Tournament Targets

 

Jimmy Garoppolo @ Los Angeles Rams

 

The Rams are resting some starters this weekend, yet I still think people will overlook Garoppolo in this spot. This St. Louis defense has been playing great lately, but if they rest people here, it’s a nice bump for Garoppolo. He threw for two touchdowns and ran for a touchdown against the Jags last weekend. Garoppolo has gotten better in every start this season, and he’s thrown for at least 290 yards in three of his four starts for the 49ers. This team has given up on punting this season for a draft pick and they’re trying to win football games right now. I’m going right back to Garoppolo, as I expect him to be low owned this weekend.

 

 

Jameis Winston vs. New Orleans Saints

 

I hate playing quarterbacks against the Saints, but I actually like Winston against them here. After dealing with injuries for most of the season, Winston has returned and looked really good. He’s thrown for at least 270 yards in each of the four games since he’s returned, and he’s also thrown eight touchdowns in that span. New Orleans ranks fifth in DVOA against the pass this season, but they’ve allowed at least one passing touchdown in eight straight games. With so many players sitting and so many question marks this week, I’m willing to take a shot on a guy like Winston in large-field GPPs. 

 

 

 

RUNNING BACK

 

Cash Game Targets

 

LeSean McCoy @ Miami Dolphins

 

Sticking to the same theme as the quarterbacks, I’m looking for high-floor running backs in cash games. McCoy is going to be my highest owned running back this weekend, and I think he’s in play in all formats. Buffalo is in a must-win spot, and the Bills need Tennessee and San Diego to lose. McCoy touched the ball 24 times against the Dolphins in Week 15 and finished with 96 total yards and two touchdowns. He then touched the ball 22 times in Week 16 against the Pats, and that marks three straight games with at least 22 touches for McCoy. Miami is allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. McCoy has a high floor, but he also has the upside to be on the winning GPP team this weekend. 

 

 

Dion Lewis vs. New York Jets

 

I like Lewis a lot against the Jets, though I also expect him to be popular here. The Patriots can lock in home-field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win this weekend, and they have the highest implied team total on the slate. I’m worried about the Pats resting guys in the second half of this game, but I don’t think they do it unless they’re up by two to three touchdowns. So, I think Lewis gets a nice-sized workload in this spot, especially since I don’t see them playing any of the questionable running backs. The Jets rank 12th in DVOA against the run this season, but they’ve allowed four rushing touchdowns in the last three games.

 

 

Tournament Targets

 

Malcolm Brown vs. San Francisco 49ers

 

The Rams have already announced they will sit Goff and Gurley this weekend. It’s a guessing game on what kind of workload we will see for Brown, but he’s near the minimum on DraftKings, and he is the minimum on FanDuel. Gurley has an 83.9% snap share this season, which is the fifth highest among running backs. He’s also second in carries and fourth in targets among running backs. That’s a massive workload, and if Brown plays 70-80% of the snaps at running back, he could crush value at this price in this matchup. The 49ers' run defense has been playing a lot better lately, but they’re still allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. I could see some people playing Brown in cash games this weekend, and while I do think it’s a little risky, I do like him a lot for GPPs.

 

 

Kenyan Drake vs. Buffalo Bills

 

The Dolphins have nothing to play for this weekend, but if Damien Williams is out again, I could see them giving Drake a full workload. Drake has been fantastic over the last month, as he’s been a top 10 running back in three of the last four games this season. The Bills are allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, and they’re ranked 30th in DVOA against the run. Drake had 22 touches against the Bills in Week 15 and finished that game with 11 targets. He’s also had over 110 total yards in three of the last four games. If Williams is active, I will likely look elsewhere, but if he’s out again this weekend, I really like Drake as a high-upside GPP play.



Stevie "stevietpfl" Young is a top-ranked DFS player and GrindersLive host who specializes in NFL, MLB and NASCAR. He provides both written content and media work for RotoGrinders.
Email :Stevie "stevietpfl" Young



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