Rich Hribar

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Rankings vs DFS Pricing Plays

Saturday, December 30, 2017


With Week 17 being a unique week in which we don’t have full staff rankings, we’re going to switch things up here. Instead of taking a composite score to determine who we’re circling as potential values, I’m just giving you my favorite discount plays of the week at each position to put a bow on the season. Obviously, you won't make an entire lineup out of these players, but when in need of some cap relief, these are my favorite cheaper options.

 

Jacoby Brissett

FanDuel QB27 ($6,600) DraftKings QB19 ($5,500)


Brissett has had a rough back half of the season, but has also run into one of the toughest slates for opposing quarterback play. He hasn’t finished a week higher than QB15 since Week 9, but has run into dates with Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Baltimore, Buffalo and Denver over that span. That Week 9 game in which he was the QB9 also happened to be on the road against the team Brissett is facing this weekend, the Houston Texans. Houston ranks 30th in yards per completion (12.7), 31st in passing points allowed per game (17.8) and have allowed 15 or more points to 10 of the past 12 quarterbacks they’ve faced.

 

Derrick Henry

FanDuel RB33 ($5,800) DraftKings RB20 ($5,500)


With DeMarco Murray finally ruled out with an MCL tear, Henry will finally get the full workload for the Titans in a must win game to secure a postseason bid. Henry has been the more effective back to begin with. He has double the runs (18) of 10 or more yards compared to DeMarco Murray (nine) on 36 fewer rushing attempts on the season. He ran 14 times for 92 yards and a touchdown when these teams met back in Week 2 and while the Jaguars run defense is improved since that early season matchup, Jacksonville has allowed double-digit points to seven different backs since their Week 8 bye.

 

Wayne Gallman

FanDuel RB56 ($5,100) DraftKings RB42 ($4,200)


Coming off a season high 51 snaps last week, Gallman has taken over as the main back in New York. It hasn’t just been last week, either as Gallman has now been an RB2 in each of the past three weeks as he leads all running backs n targets (24) and receptions (19) over the past three weeks. This isn’t just a small sample inflated by one game, either as Gallman has six or more receptions in each of those games. With no Evan Engram, Sterling Shepard or Tavarres King in the lineup this week, Gallman should see continued use in the passing game. While that receiving work paired with suppressed touchdown odds makes him more desirable on DraftKings, Gallman has some light appeal on FanDuel as well since he also has 40 percent of the team rushing attempts over the past three weeks and will be facing a limping Washington run defense to close the season. Washington is allowing 144.6 rushing yards per game over their past 10 games, 31st in the league.

 

T.Y. Hilton

FanDuel WR29 ($6,700) DraftKings WR23 ($5,900)


As poor as things have gone for Hilton in 2017, he needs just 48 yards to reach 1,000 yards for the fifth straight year.  Attempting to close the year strong, he has 23 percent and 36 percent of the team targets over the past two weeks and has loved facing the Texans over his career. In 11 career games against the Texans, Hilton averages 101.5 yards receiving per game with nine touchdowns. That includes a 5-175-2 line against Houston in Week 9. The Texans have struggled with speed receivers all season long, allowing the most pass plays of 40 or more yards (17) on the season.

 

Jamison Crowder

FanDuel WR21 ($7,000) DraftKings WR26 ($5,800)


After a disappointing start to the season, Crowder has come on over the back half of the year. Since Week 8, Crowder is the WR13 in overall scoring for wide receivers, ranking 11th in targets (66), 10th in receptions (44) and ninth in receiving yardage (615) over that span at the position. One of those big games came against the Giants when he tallied seven catches for 141 yards and a touchdown. Crowder isn’t the only interior option that has given the Giants issues, either. New York has allowed big games to Larry Fitzgerald (9-119-1), Doug Baldwin (9-92-1), Nelson Agholor (7-59-1) and Adam Humphries (6-70-0) on the year.

 

Ted Ginn

FanDuel WR45 ($5,800) DraftKings WR40 ($5,100)


Ginn is never an exciting option as he has posted more than four receptions in just three games all season, but is a cheap tournament option with a favorable outlook. With Michael Thomas only playing 64 percent of the snaps last week and not practicing all week, he’s expected to be limited once again and the Buccaneers. Despite the major receptions totals, Ginn has been a hyper-efficient target, posting a career-high 78.1 percent catch rate – after having just a 51.7 percent catch rate for his career entering the year-while still maintaining 15.1 yards per reception. An option for increased targets with Thomas ailing and drawing a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed a league-high 51 completions on throws 15 yards or further downfield has Ginn on the radar.

 

Antonio Gates

FanDuel TE14 ($5,700) DraftKings TE12 ($4,200)


The fresh legged, 37-year old tight end set season highs across the board last week in his first game without Hunter Henry. Gates played 55 snaps, ran 35 pass routes and turned eight targets into six catches for 81 yards and a touchdown. This week, he gets an extremely light matchup in a must win game. The Raiders rank dead last in receptions and receiving yardage allowed to opposing tight ends and opposing teams have targeted their tight ends a league-high 25.8 percent of the time against Oakland. To tack on, Oakland has been extremely tough on slot wide receivers – where Keenan Allen runs 51 percent of his routes – as they haven’t allowed a WR1 scoring week to a primary slot receiver all season and just one top-30 week to players that work from the slot for the crux of their routes.



Rich Hribar is a husband, father, sports meteorologist and a slave to statistics. A lifelong sports fan and fantasy gamer. You can find him on Twitter @LordReebs.
Email :Rich Hribar



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